FL, NC, and OH also have contested Senate races (though last I checked, FL and OH were pretty likely to go GOP). Seem like strange places to be withdrawing resources.

So based on that site Quik linked, these are the winning scenarios if Trump loses any or all of those states...

Loses NC only - Clinton 404, Trump 101
Loses FL only - Clinton 469, Trump 39
Loses OH only - Clinton 413, Trump 90
Loses NC and OH - Clinton 230, Trump 23
Loses NC and FL - Clinton 251, Trump 4
Loses FL and OH - Clinton 252, Trump 2
Loses NC, FL, and OH - Clinton wins all scenarios

He's going to have such a great debate he won't need to spend money in those states.

So 538's Poll-only projection has been moving steadily towards Clinton since the 1st debate. As of right now (well, more like as of 2:30pm):

Hillary Clinton has an 80.1% of winning the Electoral College vote on Nov 8, meaning Trump only has a 19.9% chance (if the election was held TODAY, Clinton would have an 86.7% chance of winning).

Now, of course things can change and 1/5th of a chance for Trump is still a chance, but Trump has got to turn this thing around and soon. Sunday's debate has to be a home run for him - and I don't think bringing up Bill Clinton's affairs is going do that.

I think we've reached the point now where it's out of his hands. He needs a Clinton smoking gun at the level of an audio tape of her calling Obama the n-word or a major mass murder on American soil by an illegal immigrant of Muslim. I don't see how anything he can say at the remaining debates can undo the damage he's already done to his own candidacy.

In fact the RNC has already called him the winner.

Because this is in one of my historical blind spots (and it's 2016), I went straight to the Wikipedia entry about this. I was graduating high school/starting college around the time of the case and was basically completely oblivious to anything outside of a 10 foot radius of my body.

Anyway, after reading the entry I think that it's interesting to note that it's probably not as cut and dried as news outlets are going to make it in the coming days 24 hours. Even though the five were exonerated based on DNA evidence, there is still a pretty strong case for some type of accessory/collateral role in the assault (physical or sexual or both).

Again, this is about as surface an understanding as one can get and it isn't meant to let Trump off the hook for his racially charged bullshit back in '89 (or now). Still, it's a fascinating case.

Honestly, I don't think even when the numbers started improving, that the Republican leadership was ever banking on a Trump win.

What they wanted was for Trump to be non-toxic enough for their Senate incumbents to be able to start banking votes as soon as early voting began. Make hay while the sun shines and all that.

I suspect their hope is that whatever does (or doesn't) happen in the final month of the campaign, that maybe Trump kept it together long enough to avoid the possibility of a washout in the Senate so that they can keep some leverage over the Scalia vacancy.

And I think that's been the plan even in recent weeks where Trump wasn't shooting himself in the dick Old Faithful style.

Trump on women: "Grab them by the p---y" https://t.co/pz7zSoyFYO pic.twitter.com/zCXkG3UB3K

— Rachel Premack (@rrpre) October 7, 2016

Another part of that tape:


Man, and he's talking about speaking more about Bill's affairs?!

His response is that Bill has said much worse things to him on the golf course, so yeah he probably will.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-r...onald-j.-trump

I dont really think this was bad lip reading

Maybe I'm jaded but I'm thinking this doesn't really change the election.

I mean is any Trump voter going to think, "I stood by Trump despite the other hundred racist/sexist/despicable things he has said, but this is going to far!"

Sadly I don't doubt this.

I think it could affect the nose-holders.

Maybe true. Maybe not. But yeah, it can't be disproven and it's completely believable. Probably his best shot to deflect.

Wow, Pence’s pool was removed from restaurant he was in when the Trump news broke, via @VaughnHillyard pic.twitter.com/SOFKulH4XZ

— MJ Lee (@mj_lee) October 7, 2016

Trump is scheduled to campaign with Paul Ryan tomorrow, wonder if that will be called off.

Of course he has no proof of that... and that doesn't necessarily address the cheating part.

The goal for him right now isn't to convince Trump voters, but to convince swing voters who aren't already on his side. I'm thinking about suburbanites in places like Philly, Cincy, and Tampa. I think definitely hurts him with them, or even in the best case scenarios, it prevents him from any attempts to gain with them for a few days.

It makes it far harder for him to claw back from his dwindling chances, but maybe Ben is right - that it is completely out of his hands and needs a near-miracle to win.

Well, he cost himself my vote with his own mouth, so on the one hand I get it.

On the other hand, I don't understand how any rational human being can vote for the subhuman filth running against him either.

A 1-1 tie (as they each vote for themselves) seems like the only sane outcome.

Which would end up electing one of those third party candidates you love. :)

I don't think anyone is surprised by the cheating part, everyone knew that about Donald. I'd say it doesn't address the, "grab them by the pussy, you can do whatever you want if you're famous," part.

Like Subby said, it's pretty clear they were exonerated of raping her, but guilty of heinous acts and were accessories to her rape (and thought they'd killed her). Screw them, screw de Blasio for settling, and screw Hillary for trying to make this a campaign issue.

Ken Burns did a documentary on it. It's on YouTube on PBS's YouTube channel.

It's not pretty clear at all to me. I know the three person panel sponsored by the police commissioner concluded that they were likely involved in some way, but I don't find them any more convincing than DA Morgenthau's conclusions, especially when we have hours and hours of interrogation that was not recorded.

In particular he needs to win back a fair portion of college educated white women that have abandoned the GOP this cycle. This won't help.

If this is locker room talk, its coming from the mouth of the one guy no one wants to be friends with. He's straight up bragging about how his self perceived status allows him to get away with sexual assault. What a disgusting piece of trash and an embarrassment to America.

How did none of the other R nominees not find any of this? Are they that freaking incompetent?

They lost to him, didn't they? I think that answers the question.

(I'm not sure any of this would have sunk Trump in the primary.)

So how do evangelicals support Trump after this?

Cognitive dissonance.

It's a requirement to be a Republican these days.

Here's one way:

Bill Mitchell on Twitter: "Look at the Bible. An imperfect soul like Trump is EXACTLY the type of person God always uses to lead his people. The pious are the enemy."

wow I think Trump is way beyond imperfect.

Are you also arguing they were innocent of all the other unprovoked assaults committed that evening? Because even Burns admits that they brought a pipe to the park that was used in the attack on one of the other joggers, and multiple defendants admitted to involvement in other crimes that night. And I think 7 years in jail sounds about right for teenagers who violently assault and rob multiple people but only probably were accomplices in a brutal rape. You don't have to pull the trigger to be charged with murder, and I don't think you should need to be the one penetrating the victim to be charged with rape.

But hey, Donald Trump said some sexist and offensive things, and the guy on his 3rd trophy wife probably wasn't faithful to her. That clearly deserves to be the bigger outrage in many people's minds.

And there's more.

We're posting my Sunday column early: It recounts how Trump forced himself on a young woman--in Ivanka's bedroom https://t.co/MthYPKFwtR pic.twitter.com/RvYbonLacw

— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) October 8, 2016

What are the odds Trump ends the debate with, "Fuck her right in the pussy"?

I'm now convinced that the entire GOP Presidental primaries are a giant improv group dedicated to amplifying the worst fears of the Conservatives:
2008- Political Neophyte in Barack Obama? Meet Sarah Palin.

2012- Running against Obamacare? Meet the other person to sign mandatory health insurance, Mitt Romney.

2016-Trust and Honesty issues, with a side of "Bad towards Women?" (Bill). Heeeeere's Donald Trump!

at this point, if Clinton wins the election and runs for re-election in 2020.. I don't know what they're going to do, except maybe put a T-1000 Terminator built from email servers from the Consulate at Benghazi.

(Ok, some of this may be the cold medicine. Not all of it though)

Now the election is over. This hot mic can be dragged out for another 7-10 days and itll essentially be too late for Trump to turn it around. I'd suspect over the next week a bunch of GOP'ers turn their back on Trump when they view it a lost cause to win the Gen election.

It's late on a Friday so everyone has probably already seen this stuff, but I think the Billy Bush tapes are what ultimately put the final nail in Trump's coffin. He's already been disinvited from Ryan's event tomorrow. Huntsman came out strong against him. The governor of Utah has now said he's not voting for him. Some never Trumps like Romney and Flake are just hammering him.

And then there's the Master of Shitty Timing, Ted Cruz. Maybe should have waited just a little longer to flush his dignity down the toilet with that endorsement.

Blah, I retract my prediction. This is the one nail in the coffin, and possibly the end of Trump's business brand.

Does the GOP get behind Johnson/Weld?

I hope so. A third party winning the election would be incredible.

They'd probably like McMulllen better since he was brought in by some NeverTrumps, but beggers can't be choosers

Sources tell me the RNC is meeting tonight to decide how strongly they can denounce Donald Trump while keeping their endorsements intact.

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 8, 2016

At least one Republican has found a way to justify continuing to endorse him.

Washington State Republican Party Chair Susan Hutchison defends Trump comments, says they "were made when he was a Democrat"

— BNO News (@BNONews) October 8, 2016

PredictIt has this up to 20¢/share currently.

Congratulations to anyone who bought Hillary shares before the first debate.

Chaffetz just pulled his endorsement.

Gary Herbert also pulled his endorsement.

Those one has been out there for quit awhile, her subsequent actions after the alleged assaults really weaken her credibility.