The polling was done Aug 13-16. The Taliban entered Kabul Aug 15. So it was done in the height of the confusion. More polling to come but not a good sign for Biden.

Poll: Support for Afghanistan withdrawal plummets as Taliban seize control - POLITICO

Specifically about the past 2-3 weeks ... I don't know how much blame should go to him but doubt it is one individual. It is a failure of intelligence, failure to process it properly, failure to mitigate the different risks etc. I can easily believe Biden got bad/no/contradictory advice but bottom line is he ultimately owns what has happened in the past 2-3 weeks. Not Trump.

The whole story will come out in a month or two. We should get a holistic view on what happened, timeline on things, who made what decision, who knew what when etc. So I'll reserve judgement on who (in addition to Biden) gets the blame. But yeah, some heads should fall.

But from what I remember, cities and territories were falling quickly the 1-2 weeks before Kabul. I think we were doing airstrikes as I recall Taliban was saying "stop them or else".

So there was plenty of warning for 1-2 weeks for the US to get their act together and at least prevent the Kabul FUBAR right now. Khandahar fell 2 or 3 days before. There was warning to get US citizens out of there.

Looking forward to a better week for Biden tomorrow and hope the US seems more organized. He's looking pretty weak in this crisis, also the military, and our inability to protect US citizens is really bad.

Major albatross for the next 3.5 years. This is much worse than Jimmy Carter's failed rescue. This is on par with (and arguable worse than) Marines at Lebanon or Somalia. And it can easily get worse if the Taliban wants it to be.

It is really just another time in the fountain of the disintegration of our standing in the world. Trump clearly threw a lot of dollars in but so did Obama and others before him. As I’ve said before I’m an interventionist so I’m always a proponent of going around and somewhat being the spine of moral high ground around the globe. For twenty years I’ve watched us try to be that sponge while also giving up on the moral high ground in practice, words yes practice no.

This is the culmination of that.

We will be unable to go and accomplish those missions anymore. We’ll be able to go intervene in easy scenarios but on more difficult landscapes we will be unwelcome while Russia and China are more so.

Hmmmmmm I’m surprised that as we’ve tapered our standing down Russia was able to equally build theirs up. It’s almost like someone or some people were saying that that was happening while trump was in office blowing Putin but I digress. It started before him (Crimea, Pakistan, Myanmar, Africa, Turkey, etc) but pres trump was the first President in my lifetime that I felt was very possibly a Manchurian candidate toeing the line as far as he could and given opportunity by a cult of gop members that literally allowed for the following out of what I mentioned above (and then some).

To the topic at hand I believe Biden deserves a lot of fault for what’s happening in Afghanistan. I think everyone and anyone could’ve foreseen what’s happening now and the last few weeks of collapse. I certainly felt like it was an easy dot connection.


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I don't think spending 20 years in a place with little strategic value is a good reason to question the resolve of the USA.

Nice touch taking an iconic pic with the US equipment. I'm sure the Taliban will milk this for all its worth.

Taliban soldiers MOCK iconic World War II image of American Marines raising flag on Iwo Jima | Daily Mail Online

Another headache for Biden. ISIS can do what the Taliban may be unwilling to do.

This is interesting given that:

In the NBC poll, Biden’s approval among registered voters has gone from 51% in April to 50% now even amid the chaos in Afghanistan. Yes CBS is bigger drop but it was an outlier high to start. Larger point: elections now a brutal game of inches between two entrenched coalitions.

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) August 22, 2021

This is an interesting thread on why the pull-out in Afghanistan had to happen as it did, and what the cost of staying likely would have been.

The Taliban would have been energized by America reneging on Trump’s deal. American troops would obviously still be in the line of fire. To be sure, the Taliban wouldn't have made the gains it did, but America would almost certainly have had to put more forces in to respond. 8/18

— Chris Chivvis (@CChivvis) August 16, 2021

I would’ve supported an overwhelming surge in advance of pulling out


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I found this one the most interesting

Most difficult is perhaps the way this outcome underscores a central paradox about America’s role in the world by demonstrating both the futility of nation-building and yet also the extraordinary power of the US military, which was holding the whole country together. 16/18

— Chris Chivvis (@CChivvis) August 16, 2021

SI

Another factor in this is that we tend to 'get over' foreign policy judgements, postively and negatively, quite quickly. Domestic policy tends to be a lot more important to the average voter. For this to be even relevant in '22/'24, there would need to be continuing bad news from Afghanistan involving support of new terrorist attacks on US targets etc. I think.

8000 out yesterday and 30000 out in August.

It's not the failure the media wants it to be.

Here's another one of the #1 most wanted Al Qaeda terrorist, Khalil Haqqani, posing with a U.S. assault rifle in Kabul, along with Taliban troops wearing American uniforms with night vision goggles. Haggani has a $5 million bounty on his head. Please note that there is no connection between Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

$5mm doesn't move the needle internationally.

Five million to kill the most wanted terrorist.....5 million to prove to the Pillow guy that his data was bunk.....Maybe the terrorist can prove it and pay off his bounty?

Up to 30K evacuated since August 14.

And no casualties. Zero. Nada. Not one American troop.

This has become quiet competence and not sexy violence, so the media will move on. But I am so very happy for the folks who are getting to safety, even if no one notices.

I remain impressed by this administration. And I remain upset at 20 years of mostly pointless war aided and abetted by both parties. Still lots of soul searching that this country needs to do.

There's no incentive for the Taliban to make it harder for people to evacuate. So one would hope that casualties would be kept at zero.

Haqqani is not Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is not a general term for any Islamic terrorists/insurgent/fighter. It has a specific designation and set of beliefs.

One of the issues with the withdrawal and gauging public support is how little the public knows about the region and the players in it.

The media that cheerleaded the war and got just about everything about it wrong is not going to give in easily on this one. I think the NY Times even ran an op-ed about how we should stay forever and the lives lost isn't a big deal because we can take all their riches.

I have a simple (okay, maybe not so) question. It's a neutral question looking for a factual answer, may lightning strike me if I have the slightest political intent. I sincerely just want to know the answer to something that Googling really didn't turn up, hardly even vague attempts at answers could I find.

The U.S. citizens still in Afghanistan -- be that 3k, 10k, 15k, whatever the number is -- who the fuck are they? As in, why the fuck were they in Afghanistan to be stuck there in the first place?

Yeah, sure, there's a lot of categories but surely they fall into at least 2-3 broad categories that would account for half or more ... right?

Are they business people? industrial workers? Relief/charity folks? Religious missionaries? Thrillseekers? Tourists?

Zero politics intended here, I just don't know a better thread to stick the question in. Anybody seen an actual answer(s) to this?

I do not have an answer but my guest would be military contractors

I was wondering that, too. I mean, I figure there's some students and some support staff (the translators we keep hearing about - but it's not like there were 50K translators to start with). If you're a tourist or businessperson, you're getting the hell out of dodge as soon as you can - but I assume most have already left. Religious missionaries may not come out even if you could. I dunno.

SI

Some are (probably most). Others are either business people or aid workers. There were business interest other than military in Afghanistan, and there have been large numbers of aid workers that have been working there through the war.

Though they have trained with Al-Qaeda, they are not Al-Qaeda. They are religious-nationalist that are basically the terrorist arm of the Taliban. They wanted the west out of Afghanistan, and they are getting their wish.

Probably a good chunk with dual citizenship.

I thought the translators we keep hearing about were locals though; i.e. Afghan citizens who worked for/with the U.S.

I could be wrong for all I can prove, but that's how I've always interpreted that particular category.

48K evacuated since August 14.

I hope this does not violate the zero politics decree. This article may give some insight.

U.S. Contractors in Afghanistan Are Hiring Amid Withdrawal

If one of these companies did not have me on the first thing smoking out of Kabul by the time the Taliban was within 100 miles of Kabul, I might be demanding that the U.S. gov't get me out of there instead.

Heading to Germany as we speak to bring a flight back to DC as part of all this.

Ok, that's pretty cool.

SI

awesome

It absolutely fits, because it's the first place I've seen put a hard number on anything
Minus however many got out in the meantime, that's roughly half (or more) of the U.S. citizens most coverage sites as being still in country.

Good luck, PilotMan!

If by "DC" you mean Dulles or Reagan, I hope your layover is short so you can get home. But if you mean BWI and you have a long layover, I think it'd be cool if the FOFCers in the area (cuervo, QuickSand, me, others?) could take you out for a drink and a meal.

Mostly contractors. And those contractors are mostly boring ones that do jobs like build roads, bridges, cell towers, buildings, etc. Lots of IT and network engineers there too. And those people need security contractors to protect them. It's basically a country with no in-house expertise so they have to hire foreign contractors to do a lot.

When I was young I worked for a contractor in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, so I know a bit how the system works. I was blown away by how many Westerners work throughout the Middle East.

As for why? There is a ton of money in it. Way back in the early days of the war, they were paying people with marginal IT abilities $85/hour to work in Afghanistan (this was before the Iraq War). And you could essentially work as much as you wanted to and you are taxed much less. I imagine that rate has only gone up. So some young guy who isn't married can spend a year over there and have his school loans paid off and a nice down payment for a house by the time he gets home. All while doing something they would have been paid maybe $20/hour here in the states.

I has the opportunity to work in other parts of the region (not Afghanistan specifically), but passed. The extra money wasn't worth the risk in my opinion.

I saw something on CNN earlier about a group of Afghans who'd become U.S. citizens were back in Kabul for wedding. I'm sure there could be a lot more doing the normal "August is vacation time the whole world round" thing and visiting family?

I would love to take you and anyone else up on that one day. Coming into Dulles, but not staying long. Hopefully one day we can make that work. I think I've met about 6 guys from here over the years.

Just to add when it comes to exact numbers, I think it's really tough to know. The government keeps some hard numbers on who they've hired, but it's not exact since they aren't the ones paying the individual contractors. So they hire a company to build and maintain some cell towers, but they don't know if the company has 200 or 400 people working on that.

Also there are so many layers between the job and the company. For instance, I was essentially working for Raytheon. But my checks were paid by another company in the States that hired computer programmers/IT. And that company was being contracted by a foreign company (I think out of Panama) that's job was placing foreign contractors with companies (guess you could call them a headhunter). And then I don't know what came on top of that, but it eventually lands at Raytheon.

So I don't know if that's just a huge bureaucracy or a way to protect themselves from taxes and liability. But you'd need some really deep forensic accounting to figure out who is who in these countries.

BSo weird. ThiBS guy in jail for the 1/6 judge told the judge that he waBS duped by Q. Then he waBS caught on the Internet looking at Q like crap.

I’m confuBSed…. He BSaid he waBS duped but then went back to their BStuff even in breaking the court’BS ruleBS BSet on him.

What iBS the real dude thinking? He BSaid one thing but did another…

I’m ConfuBSed. How can we know the real intentionBS?

https://apple.news/AymzGK4NaQ-u3xRGe3bvDhg

Look we all know what the gaslighting , obfuscation, and twisting of statistics is for don’t we?


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If you ever end up at Stewart in Newburgh...

I like how his lawyer tries to move the goalposts, too:


It's, of course, not about endangering the community. It's that he was lying out of his ass, pretending to be contrite, to get out of more jail time:



SI

Couldn’t be

He said what he said to the judge so at the time he must’ve meant it authentically


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I might be getting brave enough in my old age to consider such a thing.

Oddly enough I have actually encountered an FOFCer at an airport before. Family was coming back from a vacation in Arizona and we flew back from LV. Spotted Quik*, who happened to be coming back on the same flight.


* We had met before, so this wasn't some weird stalking thing. At least, not completely.

We have no need to know the intentions. He was given conditions to follow as part of his release and chose to violate one of them. There appropriately are likely to be consequences for doing that.

The Biden Presidency - 2020
 

Yes yes no need to figure out if someone’s saying something that is BS. No need to question whether or not someone might say something that is totally BS when it proves your BS wrong within one page of a forum thread. Instead of saying yeah I guess I am wrong on that one you simply say, “meh, I’m not wrong because you shouldn’t think about the fucking point from before…. Poof it’s gone so thus I am not wrong!” Same with your twisting of data and stats. You’re not wrong because we’re not looking at it right… all of us. Such BS dude.


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I agree with all of this.

Since my older daughter is trying to start her own life up there and my other daughter is considering NKU, we might have a chance to meet at some point.

I don't even have to travel for that one, that's easy. Absolutely, hit me up whenever you're heading this way with time. I've got one in Richmond, but he comes home almost every weekend, so we're not going that way very much rn.

I've been wrong and said so on a number of occasions on this forum in the past. It's absurd to claim I should say that though just because the consensus goes another direction. I'm not going to abandon logic and fundamental basics of evaluating data just because other people think I should. There were times when the consensus held that the earth was the center of the cosmos, that there were no particles smaller than an atom, etc. Modern polling is strewn with examples of concepts where the majority of people are just flat-out wrong. People disagreeing with a stance doesn't at all demonstrate that stance is incorrect.

I endorse grabbing a beer with PilotMan.