I don't see him winning Pennsylvania without winning Arizona. And the other Rust Belt states will probably closely align with PA as well.

I think a better way to look at it from his perspective is he needs to flip AZ, GA, and Omaha for a 270-268 win.

Do we know if Nebraska's government and courts are normal GOP or MAGA GOP?

Like, if it comes down to that one vote, will they be honest brokers about it?

There's already been murmurs of Nebraska switching to winner take all at the last moment, but Maine has pretty much said they will counter any such move Nebraska makes, making it a wash.

I wouldn't go too far off the 2016 numbers as most pollsters changed their procedures afterward. 2020 was pretty damn close from a pollster side and even 2022 polling was spot on (if anything it underrepresented Democrats).

It's likely a coin flip right now but the momentum is clearly in Harris' favor. And it seems like the more people see of Trump and the more people see of Harris, the more it shifts. I could be wrong, but Trump looks really weak on the trail. Just none of the charisma he had in the past. I think the more you see of him now and in debates, the worse it is for him. And that doesn't even account for the fact the RNC was gutted and they just don't have much of a ground game in important states.

I think the freakouts you're seeing from Trump and others is a sign that the numbers are not looking good for them.

This raises a question I've had for a while.

How much do candidate rallies matter?

The people who go are, I assume, committed partisans.

Who is swayed by the fact that a candidate gave a rally in their city?

It is a rally of faithful more than an attempt to change minds. Get people excited, and get them to talk more about the that excitement to the less engaged.


When you look at what Trump has been doing, it may seem crazy but there is some method to the madness. I think they had a plan against Biden that was playing to the populist. Try to make it look like Trump has a broader appeal. Down play the crazier stuff while playing up things like no tax on tips. They could see the Democratic base was listless, and they felt like really the less they do the more in the bag the election was.

Then came Kamala. Suddenly, the Democratic base is excited. Someone new! Someone different! Trump was now facing a turn out problem that they were not expecting. So he goes to what drives his people to turn out. Racism, division, fear etc. He is playing to his base to get their excitement up. I think they are counting on the new factor wearing off, and the Democratic base to cool. Then Trump can go back to the populist playbook. For now though, he has got to make sure his base is revved up.

I think the events help rally supporters and get them excited to vote. But I also think they help with local media coverage and recognition.

For instance, Harris did an event in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. That's likely going to be heavily covered by all the local media outlets. I worked in Eau Claire when I was young and the big story in that region might be some new parking meters being added downtown. So this would be a big deal. I think it shows people in that area that you actually care about them, even if they aren't attending the event or even a supporter. And in a state that close, if one of these events can swing a few hundred voters, it's worth it.

It's literally the opposite of what Hillary did in 2016 and what Trump did so well.

A second photo of JD Vance in drag has hit the internet:

Can a couch molestor be considered hot?

Sofa Loren! Thanks Twitter 🤣

🤣

Today Trump was also found to be flying in Jeffrey Epstein's old plane.

Donald Trump:

• owned Miss Teen USA to IMG & was accused by three separate underage contestants of Teen USA of walking into their dressing room
• actively and on purpose exposed his own children to pedophile Jeffrey Epstein flies in Jeffrey Epstein's old plane
• called Jeffrey Epstein a terrific guy
• was logged on 'the Lolita Express' seven times
• held a 'calander girl' contest where he and Jeffrey Epstein were the only judges
• was literally accused of rape by one of Jeffrey Epstein's underage models

...and yet it's always conservative crackpots that invent conspiracy theories about Epstein and blame them on the left (and to be fair there are legit connections between Clinton and probably others on the left), but there is a mountain of evidence against Trump.

The European Union has informed Elon Musk that tonight's interview with Trump will be available in the EU and therefore subject to EU law, with whom Elon is already enaged in a lawsuit determining Twitter access in the EU. Currently the UK is embroiled in massive race riots I don't think they will be very flexible if Trump starts talking about race. Love that it's last minute too. What a winning day for team Trump.

This account loves to spread misinformation.

The Miami Herald confirmed that Trump flew on a jet once owned by Jeffrey Epstein.

A jet that was chartered by his campaign once Trump’s plane had a mechanical issue.

The owner of the jet bought it from Epstein when he was still… https://t.co/aePmSc19uI

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) August 12, 2024

It looks like it has been picked up by some more legit news sources in the last hour or so fwiw. The Miami Herald, as mentioned, and Business Insider.

EDIT: I don't necessarily doubt it was a very unlucky coincidence, considering the conspiracy connections, and nothing those articles say is untrue (though there's certainly a lot implied between the lines):

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...290986070.html

Trump Flew on Jeffrey Epstein's Former Jet for Campaign Stops - Business Insider

It was definitely Epstiens old plane, but it is a charter from someone who bought the plane a long time ago.

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Trump is totally going to tank the Truth Social stock and leave his "investors" with monster losses and they will still not hold him accountable.

The company makes no money and has no future. It's a meme stock and anyone who gets burned by it deserves it.

Well, yeah, but you think the people who buy trump meme coins and bibles know that?

Still winning today

Going about as expected

https://t.co/PLHekD9jzW

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2024

Mmmhmm

Elon's liability factory mysteriously shuts down after EU warning. I wouldn't be surprised if he did this himself so he can record and edit Trump's comments.

Can't say I'm a fan of that letter.

One the hand it mentions that X needs to protect media freedom and freedom of expression while also reducing the amplification of harmful content.

Those two goals can't really coexist. It's like wanting to root for a superbowl winner while also only wanting to root for the Cleveland Browns.

Trump and Elon have managed to do a lot of damage over the course of their lives.

Can you imagine how much worse it would be if either of them were remotely competent?

I did not listen to the Trump/Musk thing last night (duh), but I did just read that they tried to make the argument nuclear war (or bombing cities back to the middle ages) "isn't as scary as people think" because the Japanese cities we nuked are back to being "full cities" again. WTF?

My understanding, it was about the safety of nuclear power. Elon is for nuclear expansion, and Trump is against (he only wants fossil fuels, period). Elon made the point that even where nuclear bombs have been used, cities have been rebuilt, and that he has even eaten vegetables grown in the Fukushima area. Trump the quipped "but haven't you been feeling bad?"

Is there a bigger loser than Sean O'Brien? How have the Teamsters not ousted him or demanded his resignation immediately?

Feels like the fact that major news outlets are sitting on the hacked e-mails from the Trump campaign should be a bigger story. Very weird not to report it.

Supposedly sitting the 270 pages of vetting material on Vance and some stuff on Rubio but not publishing because of the "lessons learned from 2016".

It's an odd choice and has to be viewed as political at this point. Unless major news outlets are no longer going to be using information they've acquired from stolen material. Imagine not reporting on the Pentagon Papers or anything found in the Wikileaks cache of info.

What they are claiming is Wikileaks publishing Clinton's emails allowed them to talk about it. It had been put into the public sphere, so free game. But because they were sent it, it would be them publishing it and not responding to it. In other words, if the person that stole it just put it on the web, it would be free game. My bet is that it will eventually get there.

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So they wouldn't have published the Pentagon Papers?

Poker Pros, Crypto Kings, and Tech Titans: Nate Silver’s Guide to “The River� | Vanity Fair

I know Nate Silver is not everyone's cup of tea so all will read this with our own biases. Of course I have some fundamental issues with his arguments for The River including some he laid out himself where he argued against it. Either way, I do appreciate laying out the thoughts of his community.

I do wonder if The Village has both progressive and conservatives existing together or if there are separate Villages for each side of the political aisle.

I need Kamala to say, "Iran, if you're listening" at her next rally.

Still racist.

This is the official Trump campaign account. pic.twitter.com/biDuvO0Q1Z

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) August 13, 2024

"So they wouldn't have published the Pentagon Papers?"

Probably, but that is because it was an easily verifiable government report. Remember what happened with the Killian documents. Information from a single source that is not verifiable can come back and bite you. The same organization refused to publish Hunter Biden's laptop information for the same reason. When getting information from an untrustworthy source, you have to question how much is authentic and what might have been inserted.

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$350 Could Cost You Thousands: Wall Street Banks Clamp Down On Harris-Walz Donations

So utra-rich guys are free to contribute billions to PACs and to otherwise grease the skids for their own hand-picked VP candidate, but because one of the VP nominees is governor of a state, your typical citizen has to get pre-approval from certain types of employers to donate more than about $350 to the Harris campaign? I suppose the PAC option is still viable, but how many ordinary citizens are savvy enough to know which PACs are which, as opposed to the Harris/Walz Campaign?

Of course, I think the only time I've actually donated any money to a political campaign is when I worked in a small Tallahassee law firm for about a year where it was essentially required (without explicitly saying it). I feel like your ordinary citizen donating, say, $500-$2500, turns into a Greg Giraldo bit: "$1000? In this economy?"

Royce White is a major party candidate for the Senate. Sigh.

Questionable choice to pick one of the few jobs that may actually require more travel than being an NBA player. Now being a state senator, he could've driven everywhere he needed to go, but he's aiming high, I guess.

Also, JD Vance is awful, but I hope these pictures of him dressed in drag don't get much traction. Cell phones with reasonably functioning cameras have still only been around for like 25 years, but anyone under the age of like 40 pretty much grew up with them. If we don't want to keep having geriatric politicians, we are going to have to accept that some of the younger politicians are going to have cringy pictures and videos out there. If it causes his own followers to reject him and he looks like a huge hypocrite, I'm good with that - but I think the greater population has to be careful about criticizing out of context pictures from high school and college aged politicians or else a whole lot of folks are going to be weeded out and we end up with more of the lab grown politicians that we all hate (on both sides).

Agreed. I'm surprised we still haven't had an inappropriate/cringy messageboard/ FB post come up in a campaign yet, but maybe that's because we're still largely being run by people who still haven't successfully transitioned from typewriter to keyboard.

Also, I'm happy to see this move to the middle:

Yeah. She needs to trust that her vibes will help her keep the base and that her TikTok volunteers will keep that energy up.

She, personally, needs to grab the silent but sizable group of moderates who were quietly going to vote for Biden but really won't pull the trigger for a "leftist."

I’m at a family water park on the jersey shore. Guys in a tank top with a picture of Joe Biden on it that says “who shit my pants”

Maga-don’t call us weird.

40 years ago, people wore Alf t-shirts around. Now their entertainment is politics. It's not just weird, it's a sickness.

I guess I'm guilty of this. Not the shirt wearing (Alf or politics) but I do often view the competition between Republicans and Democrats as one giant entertaining soap opera.

Well, there was always that part of the populace that is just crass. I feel like there's a lot of overlap of folks who would wear that shirt and folks who had rear windshield stickers of Calvin pissing on [insert logo of choice]. A lot of the same crowd.

And truck nuts.

I usually just lurk here, but...

My 8 year old daughter is a type 1 diabetic and we do a JDRF (they recently changed their name to Breakthrough T1D) walk at Kings Island in Cincinnati every year since she was diagnosed. You come up with your own team name and a lot of people will have shirts made and wear them. One group had shirts on that said "My pancreas is as useful as Joe Biden as President." They all had them on, even the kids (probably under 10) who are already being brainwashed.

Weird.