Warnock was running against Walker. I can guaran-damn-tee you she would beat Walker by at least the same margins. Apples and oranges.

The first Maricopa county drop has Harris only up a couple of points. AZ seems unlikely.

Warnock ran as a Democrat too.

Honestly never was in play this time, though Lake will get drubbed again which makes me happy.

And Walker ran against the Werewolves and Vampires.

I bet Manifold is exhausted.

I'll be here all night.

So I still don't have hope for this election, but the 2020 thread is pretty much a mirror image of this thread at the same point in time

2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 120 - Front Office Football Central

edit: we're also literally only 1 page off, crazy

There's still hope. Virginia is taking it's usual turn, Harris has taken the lead and Fairfax should net another 100kish for her.

Gwinnett finally gets a dump of votes in, and cuts the lead by 150k. It starting to look like she is going to be a .5 short.

Yeah, I think GA is going Trump.

Georgia, probably, though in the end maybe 1%.

Pennsylvania? It looks good for Harris so far. I do not understand the betting odds at all.

Election day vote in a Dearborn precinct

332 Trump
293 Stein
81 Harris

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) November 6, 2024

Looks like 2020, but with Trump getting all the narrow victories.

Looks like I need to make sure my daughter's passport is renewed so she can prove citizenship.

Bizarre at the moment. Pennsylvania at Trump 90%, Wisconsin at Trump 88.5% and Michigan at Trump 82.2%.

Appropos of nothing...

Search interest for ‘did Joe Biden drop out’ is spiking on Election Day even though he withdrew months ago | Fortune

I was confident in Pennsylvania earlier. I'm not anymore. It looks close.

Right now, it looks like Trump has a reasonable chance to sweep all seven swing states.

Logged in to say the democrats deserved this for backing a centrist interventionist when the 2022 general said otherwise with the overwhelming new age dem voting. The young voters are not moderates and refuse to be near the middle. It's either far right or far left.

Historically candidates who ran on an anti-war platform does well. All Harris had to do was denounce Israel, she loses nothing doing so and could only gain even if it were lip service.

So, this is like, bad ...

Welp. Logging off for the night.

Was pessimistic going into this and it’s looking like Trump, RFK Jr and Elon will be running our country.

God help us

Right now, it looks like Pennsylvania is headed into recount country and Casey has a small advantage in the Senate. Those odds look so tempting.

Another political masterclass.

Looks like Kamala Harris will not win the south end of Dearborn, an area 90+% Muslim that Biden won with 88% of the vote 4 years ago.

— Niraj Warikoo (@nwarikoo) November 6, 2024

The irony that the core Trumper hates minorities so much and those same minorities are going to deliver them a second Trump.term.

Georgia SOS says Trump has an insurmountable lead.

Killing people's families does not win votes. Something for the Democrats to note for the next election.

Forgot about them sending Torres to Michigan :lol:

they sent Liz Cheney on a 3 state tour. they sent Kathy Hochul to PA! THEY SENT RITCHIE TORRES TO MICHIGAN TO START FLOSSING IN FRONT OF PEOPLE WHO HAD LOST HALF THEIR FAMILIES!

— Lead Actor from Pixar’s Sodas (@ByYourLogic) November 6, 2024

That shouldn't be the main talking point but one of them. A lot further left leaning economic policies would do extremely well. Young educated voters from the Obama campaign are in their early to mid 30s now and they're not stupid and don't want to vote like their parents. This idea of electing a politician who can work with the other party is so antiquated even the GOP scraped that a long time ago.

She should concede before noon tomorrow.

Wisconsin sure isn't looking good, though there's still plenty left of Milwaukee.

My wishful thinking about polling overadjusting for Trump support was very, very wrong.

I don't think it's over yet. The way it looks to me:

- Trump appears to be on the way to winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Assume he wins Alaska also. That would put him at 259.

- Harris has to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona - all look close so not at all out of the question.

Definitely not good, but that door is still open a tad.

This is what I'm seeing, although PA might be worth a shot in the betting markets. But even the popular vote market is down to 11c for her, it's over. At least NC pushed back against some crazy MAGA overreach, that's a small consolation.

In fairness, I don't think anyone knew what to make of the polls.

What people did know is Cheney was a disaster. Gaza was a disaster. And running to the right of everything the Democras have stood for for decades was maybe a bad decision. They ran as a Republican to lure Republican voters and the Republicans just voted for the actual Republican.

One of the dumbest campaigns concocted supported by some of the most out of touch people in this country. Now what's left is who they'll blame for this. Russia? Muslims? Transgender people? Progressives?

She is not winning Arizona. And while I think there is a shot in Pennsylvania, she looks cooked in Michigan. It's a young state with a lot of Muslims. Ethnic cleansing their families turned out to not be a winning strategy there.


This should lead to some reflection in the party but I doubt it. They'll have their scapegoats and the same losers will continue down this path.

Pfft. If Trump wins, the next elections won't really matter for Democrats. Sure, Democrats will be elected to the House & Senate from states like CA, MA, IL, NY, etc..., but the Senate doesn't look obtainable any time soon, and with the GOP now perfecting the way to suppress voting effectively, POTUS is probably off the table.

If Trump wins, Democrats need a major re-think, and it goes far beyond what happened with Israel & Gaza.

For the time being anyway.

Ultimately rainmaker was right about the campaign mistakes, though this was largely in the last month as I dont think the initial strategy was so bad. Democrats will need someone more left and charismatic ala Obama to win again.

I don't see why Arizona is decisive yet. Looks very similar to the close '20 results.

In the bigger picture, it looks most likely to be a perfect storm. ~ 53 Republican Senators, probable small margin for them in the House. A Congress *unified behind Donald Trump.

* Kind of, small margins can be problematic as we've seen.

Super Great. :banghead:

Republicans vote reliably for Republicans because first and foremost they deliver. You can overlook a lot of things when you vote for a party to lower taxes, tighten immigration, and appoint Supreme Court justices and they do it.

Democrats continue to try and triangulate positions between all of their stakeholder groups, and besides watering down their messages, they often can't make hay about their wins (and there were wins in the Biden Administration) because they're afraid that a win to one of their stakeholder groups will be offensive to another of their stakeholder groups.

Maybe they're right to do so, because the country is fundamentally right-of-center and the only way to win as a "center-left" (I use that term loosely from a global perspective) is coalition-building.

But if that's the case, I'm done with this Clintonesque "Third Way" bullshit. I held out hope because I really, really, really don't want to live under another Trump Administration, and I think it's really, really bad for the world and the future. But if so many people who will be so negatively impacted by another Trump Administration have no problem voting for him or staying home then why should I, who will be lesser impacted, continue to care?

At this point I'd rather see Democrats go the leftist-populist-AOC/Bernie route and see if you can rebuild a national party that way that believes in something and doesn't have to run away from everything. I, personally, don't think you can because fundamentally I think we have an electorate that is self-interested and isolated, and Republican policies speak so clearly to that.

They needed a major re-think in 2021. Why Garland didn't bother to charge Trump with obvious crmes. Why they didn't work to expand the court. Make Puerto Rico and DC states. Pass minimum wage increase which Kamala personally blocked . Kick Clinton out of the party so they could go after Trump for his connections to Epstein. They didn't take the thread seriously and neither did voters.

A lot of this stuff began in the 90's when Bill switched the party from a working class one to a corporate one because he thought they needed the money to compete. That left all the working class rural voters to find someone else to support and you're seeing the result today. And their addiction to corporate money and future lobbying gigs prevents that from ever changing.

Pressure from voters would be best but blue MAGA falls in line instead of rocking the boat. They're the ones who said Biden was perfectly fine and this was all ageism which led to Kamala getting the spot (the worst option they could have had). They celebrated what the administration was doing in Gaza and supported a violent fascist. And they refused to admit that running on a campaign that shit on its base and propped up the Cheney family was incredibly dumb.

This one's on Blue MAGA and until they start thinking for themselves and leave the cult of personality behind, nothing will change.

IIRC, sometime in the past few weeks Trump said something along the lines of "Bibi should finish the job". So looks like electing Trump will be a pretty pyrric victory for those folks. Then they'll get deported on top of it.

Let's see how happy they are when Trump rekindles his lovefest with Bibi Netanyahu. Same thing goes for the unions who refused to endorse Harris. Can't wait to see how joyful they are when Trump appoints fellow union-buster Elon Musk to eliminate collective bargaining and make it legal to fire workers who threaten to strike.

They had everyting going for them. Biden was cooked and the switch to Harris brought life into the party. Just the idea that she would deviate from Biden's unpopular policies and put up some of her own was enough to stir up enthusiasm. She proceded to say she wouldn't change anything Biden did (except add a Republican to the cabinet :lol:). Then decided to make a hard shift to the right and embrace people like Liz Cheney who everyone hates.

They even added Tim Walz which people were excited about as he's incredibly likable. This guy who came up with a perfect attack on Republicans by calling their grievances weird. A guy who went to small state schools and worked as a high school football coach. The perfect guy to throw on Bill Simmons podcast and other shows to talk football and middle American life. Instead, they told him to drop the weird thing and hid him for the final months.

Biden, Harris, blue MAGA, and the complete fucking nitwits who ran her campaign are what caused this. So many people warned you all about this and were called trolls. I guess congrats on losing to one of the worst candidates in history twice now. Truly a remarkable accomplishment.

Lol, definitely on "Blue MAGA", and not the fact that people who know better, when faced with 2 options, let the country choose the option that is worse on literally every single issue they claim to care about, just to prove how good and pure of a progressive they are.

What are the odds that the Democratic Party runs an anti-Israel candidate in 2028? .1% seems a bit generous.

What are the odds that a Trump presidency is completely anti-science, Anti-Palestine, anti-women? 99.9%?

Yeah, blame "blue MAGA" for the insanity; that makes sense.

In 50 years, if there is still a planet, will we still be allowing fascists to run society to prove a point to the other party that they should be further left? While the fascists go on and on about how we need to deport everyone trying to flee the scorched equator left behind by climate change from those fascist party's policies?

How depressing.

Dola:
Unironically, a lot of people enjoy pretending to be the opposition to the big bad fascist rather than actually deal with moderately inept government.

Democratic Party included in preferring that, I think. Better for fundraising.

Kamala and Trump spent a chunk of the debate arguing over who loved Bibi and Israel more. They have identical stances on Israel, which is to give them everything they want and let them do whatever they want.


I actually think there is a better chance of Trump ending it because he gets annoyed with stuff that draws attention away from himself and there is a large contingent of his party that is anti-war now. Plus people like you can now pretend you're against the genocide and there will actually be some legitimate resistance to it.

I think Michigan is still in play, if Wayne County maintains %'s that's 193k for her, only behind 163k.

I agree, although my math says if the current rate continues she only gets another 130k from Wayne.

Democrats overwhelmingly supported a fascist leader in Israel. They are actively bragging about how much oil they're drilling. Harris made a huge stink about how much she loves fracking. They banned cheap EV cars from China which would have dramatically helped adoption in this country and lowered emissions. And the Democrats literally proposed Trump's immigration plan and were talking about building the wall he never finished.

Democrats don't stand for any of the things you think of and the public saw right through it. And that doesn't even touch on the fact that Kamala was thrust upon Democrats because blue MAGA sat around for years pretending Biden's mental health was fine when everyone with two brain cells knew it wasn't. Him stepping down early and having a true open primary would have produced a much better candidate.

You can't cry about fascism and democracy in peril and then do a bunch of stuff that show you don't actually give a shit about either. Just take the L, you all were wrong.

I still say the blame goes to the voters. You know, the people who are actually in charge (with the exception of the Kamala bit that they never actually voted on). But they're still the ones choosing the historically terrible candidate again. A lot of them see who he is ... and don't care.

Clinton won that city by over 200k votes, Philly has her running 3-1 on him in the cities, if that holds it'd be enough. Just not sure Wisconsin has enough left for her, even if Philly can somehow bail her out in PA.

Kamala was behind Andrew Yang in the polls in 2020. She's the historically bad candidate.

Yeah that last chunk wasn't good for her, 25% lead to an 19% one, she probably needs to be over 60% there but at 58 while Biden was up at 68. That R shift in cities is one of the stories of the night to me.

Harris sent the crowd at Howard home for the night.

Who would have guessed lying about Biden’s cognitive health for 2 yrs, refusing to do an open convention for a new nominee,
never mentioning public healthcare & embracing fracking,
the Cheneys & a yr long slaughter of children in Gaza wouldn’t be a winning strategy?
1/

— Adam McKay (@ZombiePanther2) November 6, 2024

At this point, Trump has outperformed his percentages in 63 of 67 Pennsylvania counties. I don't think there's enough left in Philadelphia for Harris, but I think Casey has a chance - that one could well end up in recount territory.

The Dems not being able to translate a billion dollars into turnout will surely be talked about. Harris didn't have the Obama skill, Biden would've been worse, but I don't think the 90s Third Way types will learn from this, they'll just point fingers.

- Georgia's been called.

- Margin in PA is over 200k. Philly should bring in another 100k margin roughly for Harris, but I don't think there's enough vote left for a realistic chance.

- Margin in Michigan is 220k+, pretty much same story there.

- Wisconsin hasn't improved, even Nevada looking Trumpy.

I'm facing facts and giving up at this point. Without being at all blasphemous, God help America, because we haven't the good judgement to help ourselves.

What does "you all were wrong" mean exactly? I voted for Kamala Harris because she is a better candidate and obviously better person than Donald Trump. I expected her to lose to Trump because I have heard so much negativity about her from the left.

But this is the process we were given. And I'm sorry you can't tell the difference between the policies of the two potential administrations.

Will this be the wake up call the Democratic Party needs? Highly doubtful, seeing as how little changed after 2016, 2004, or 2000... But I would take it over being represented to the world by an anti-intellectual misogynistic narcisisst xenophobe who wages trade wars and wouldn't mind crashing the entire economy to wage war at the idea of free movement of human peoples and other basic "American" ideals.

And there is a huge world of difference on environment and healthcare between the two parties. Obviously the Dems are not perfect (or even good?) on those issues, but I would at least prefer to HAVE an EPA and a public health option.

Hopefully we all sent a loud message to Genocide Joe and hopefully it was worth it. lol

Starting to see Pennsylvania called in places. That will do it.

Oh well, chapter deaux.

Voter breakdown & demographics will be fascinating. Also the recriminations and denials

CNN finally calls it (late).

I hope this is a lesson in what a true threat to democracy is. Didn’t work in 2016 when the DNC fixed it for Clinton and it didn’t work for them in 2024 when they installed a diversity hire who never won a single Presidential primary despite running in two elections. When the people had a choice, it was clear.

Serious question: Since Trump/Elon intend to destroy the economy for ...reasons, should I fully withdraw from my one 401k before they all are depressed to pay off any debt so I can try to weather four years (and probably a dictatorship)?

Not the result I wanted or expected

Though there was always the part of me that recognized that Trump, personally, always does better than people think he will, even as Trumpism through surrogates never seems to

People are getting exactly what they asked for. I feel for the people who at least tried to stop it.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Not Dave Ramsey, not financial advice, just opinion ...

Good odds your 401k will grow, not get depressed.

If you have a lot of debt and at high interest rates (e.g. credit cards), I'd pay off the debt regardless of who won. But 401k should be last option as you'll have a 10% penalty for withdrawing early. But Dave will caution you and say, it won't really work unless you address the why/how you got into alot of debt in the first place.

Oh, he's also say eat alot of beans & rice as you pay off debt

While I suspect we don’t agree on much, I will agree that the incompetence, naivety and insularity of the Democratic Party has a lot to answer for. A convicted felon who never went below a 53 disapproval rating the entire campaign just won a very convincing election.

Harris probably ran as good a campaign as she could and never had the slip up moment that many feared she would, but this is a chastening rebuke to the arrogance of running Biden again in the first place and then switching to the default option who was more unpopular with voters.

I’m only annoyed about the false hope in the last 48 hours and should have known better. We get the leaders we vote for and deserve.

I appreciate the response. I have a main 401k over 500k; I have one with my new company that was bought and thus is now not getting a match. It's about 50k and with a full withdrawl and penalties is should be about 22-24k and that pays off all new debt going into the new year.

I only think now might be the time because my wife was unemployed for a good chunk of the year but got a new job around june. So we'd be in the lower tax bracket. It might be the best time to pay off debt.

I am disciplined but my wife is more impulsive. Plus I got two boys who are now hitting the electronics age and while Lego and Matchbox cars are expensive, they ain't nothing compared to X-box or Steamdeck.

It's disappointing, but I'm a middle aged straight white dude who is Christian and has a decent amount of money. I'll be fine.

The 10% early withdrawal penalty is a tough pill to swallow. The $22-24k of debt payment doesn't sound like much relative to what you already have in the 401k ... and therefore, my assumption your earning power is pretty decent.

Personally, I don't think you should touch the 401k, you need as much as possible for your retirement. I would cut back elsewhere to pay off the debt.

And damn, everyone's favorite grandmother (Boebert) will be back. I expected MTG but thought she was a goner.

I’m trying to look at it this way as well. So much blame to go around. Currently my anger is at garland for dragging his feet for fear of looking partisan. How’s that going to work out for him when he’s facing a military tribunal ?

Early analysis of Trump's base vs 2020

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...oll-rcna178603

The last two surprised me.

If you want to make sure your 401k survives the incoming crash - and hoo, boy it's coming - move your assets into bonds and other low-risk, low-reward funds.

Or cash it all and put it under your mattress, the apocalypse is nigh

Thank God KY does off-year statewide office elections or Beshear likely would have been caught up in a red wave. No wonder the GOP super majority wants to change that to align with the presidential elections.

Like Qwik said, older white, straight, Christians are going to do OK. But i feel for my 2 daughters who will likely try to raise families in the aftermath (or during) Trumpism's heyday. And seeing things like J6 defendants being pardoned and the elevation of people like Musk and RFK to positions of power is scary.

I've never been one to openly discuss politics except with those I'm comfortable with, but I definitely feel like I need to keep my head down and just grin and bear it because Trump has promised there's no room or mercy for dissenters in our country. Who knows how far down in insignificance that's going to go. By his own words, we have to expect the worst and be relieved if it's not as extreme as he promised.

Props to me for a full media blackout yesterday. I at least got a night of sleep instead of watching the returns trickle in red over the course of the night

I'm technically 50% Mexican, but you couldn't tell by looking or my name. In theory there's a non-zero chance living in SC that they could repeal anti-miscegination laws.

What's weird is that I'm not particularly religious. I'm technically Catholic but terrible at it. I'm of the feeling that this life is it and nothing else. It's unbelievably depressing, but you would think that would mean I shouldn't care about people I'll never interact with. All I should care about is what's best for me. But that's not how I feel. I'm not the only one getting this one shot, everyone is. If my life is slightly, immeasurably worse so some family from Guatemala sneaks into the US, so be it. Maybe their grandkids will be where I am after I'm gone because that slight decrease in my quality of life for 30 seconds helped make a difference.

That's what pisses me off about the "religious" folks voting overwhelmingly for Trump. Their ethos is I got mine, or some "other" is preventing me from getting it. God is just a get out of jail free card so they can be pieces of shit to people they irrationally hate.

/End rant

Also, the only shot the Dems have from current candidates are Mark Kelly, Beshear and Shapiro... and honestly it's probably just Kelly. If the climate is even remotely similar, the Dems cant win with a woman or minority at the top of the ticket.

Oh I'm "Christian" but not engaged in faith at all. After my parents are gone, I might be more open about my lack of interest or care in matters involving organized religion, but I don't think it will matter either way. But I look the part - outside of my musical tastes, I guess.

As much as I love Beshear, I don't see his "we are the world" touchy-feely approach to politics working on a national level at all. Especially not after last night. A Senate run might be the more prudent move for him. Go after McConnell's seat.

That's the way I see it for this one 401k account, I can't contribute to it anymore and it won't have a match. I don't even think I can change what fund it is. At 48 with no end for retirement, it may go up to half a million but I'd like to snuff out my credit card and roof loan before it loses value.

His insane trade wars are going to really fuck us all.

Eliminate the cheap labor that Americans won't do while making imported goods 20-30% more expensive is a hell of a mix.

Dow futures are up big.

I did my part to eliminate Trumpism but now I have to pivot to what will be in it for me. We are in the 35% bracket but are deferring some long term incentives to drop to 32%. At best I doubt it goes up and hopefully goes down.

I still think any gains will be offset by his trade war that will wreck the economy.

I dunno. Harris’ “there’s nothing that comes to mind” is a huge slip up. I couldn’t buy the whole “new generation of leadership” when she’s 60. We go from octogenarians to sexagenarians?

Personally I couldn’t vote for Harris in good conscience. I also couldn’t vote for Trump. The fact that he is a convicted felon many times over and is closely linked to Epstein is inexcusable. I have no idea how anyone could vote for either candidate. How we ended up here is beyond me.

I'm hopeful the more economic savvy legislators will move him off the tariffs and elminate the income tax stuff, but I really don't know where they stand on that. Having the GOP take over the consumer protection agencies will make life better for my professional business interests, no doubt.

To shift back to the election autopsy, Latino men were a 33 point swing from Biden to Trump.

Unless there is something very special about your 401k, I'm pretty sure you can rollover your 401k into a Fidelity/Vanguard/Schwab IRA "brokerage" IRA penalty free. Then you can buy stocks, ETFs, funds etc.

Source: me. I've rolled over 401k funds from my company into outside IRA after I left and also while I was with the company.

Use rule of 72 as a guestimate. At 10% annual returns, it'll take about 7 years to double. So, 50k to 100k by 2032, then 200k by 2039.

BTW if there truly was going to be an Apocalypse, your 401k will be worthless anyway. Buy guns & ammo, food, maybe a nice off-grid compound, 4x4, learn skills like farming etc. If it's the zombie apocalypse, get back to religion :)

Hope they enjoy being the targets of hate crimes and deportation squads.

Our best hope is that he is too lazy to actually do the things he says he’s going to do.

Yep. At this point, to cut our losses, let him continue to enrich himself and family members since he's already blown through all the guardrails on that the first time through, no longer face criminal charges, and hope he leaves the structure of the government intact.

I don't expect the broadcast networks will actually lose their licenses, but they will all decide to self-censor ala Bezos so as to not piss off the GOP. I don't know how far we'll slide into Orbanism, but we're definitely headed in that direction.

I've never taken the sleep and wellness features of my watch all that seriously - I use them for a general gut check to see if what I perceive jibes with what is measured. Usually it's pretty close, but I it's not like I use them for anything.

I went to bed shortly after 11 last night because I saw the end coming and didn't want to watch it. I ended up with "good" sleep despite getting up around 5:30 (wife is an elementary school sub today so she had to get up early). I felt like I slept fairly soundly and went to sleep pretty quickly, so that checked out. Then I did a wellness check. Stress level showed "high." I've done wellness checks once every week or two this year. First time my stress level has ever registered as high. Maybe these measurements are pretty accurate.

Curious what metrics it uses to measure stress?

How bad of a candidate is Kari Lake that she’s 170k votes behind trumps total.

It was never about Trump doing things; it was about his enablers doing things: Vance, Trump Jr, Musk, Miller, Bannon, Kennedy, etc...

They are going to destroy America for Americans and receive applause for it.

There is no integrity or accountability, we're going to have the 80's all over again with the markets.

And incompetent.

At the end of the day, people are paying $50+ more per week on groceries. The Lincoln Project fantasy campaign rolling out Liz Cheney and not addressing a weekly reminder had no chance.

I'm sure this will be blamed on Bernie Sanders and national Democratic candidates will start running on immigrants eating dogs and cats the next time around as a lesson learned. If they just move right on every issue, like the Lincoln Project morons recommend, electoral success is guaranteed.

Yes I can rollover but that's not the point. The point is should I pay off the debt while my one account is probably at it's maximum value. If I try to keep this process going and I lose my job or encounter another hardship that results in a high cost (when costs will be higher), that opportunity won't be available.

God I want to go MJ4H on this whole country