Who was elected President?

In 2016 and 2020 polling, especially at the state level, was pretty bad. Trump seems to be a wildcard no one knows how to account for in polling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-...-changing.html

Along with weighting, pollsters are paying more attention to survey respondents they used to discount.

“Some people will start a poll, they’ll tell you who they’re going to vote for and then they say, ‘I’m done. I don’t want to talk to you anymore. Goodbye,’” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, which helps conduct polls for the New York Times, told CNBC. “In 2020 and 2022, we didn’t count those people.”

But this time around, Levy says they are counting the “drop-offs.”
They found that if they had counted those impatient respondents in 2020 and 2022, their poll results would have moved “about a point and a quarter in the Trump direction,” Levy said, eliminating roughly 40% of their error.

Levy added that SCRI is also taking an extra step to target Trump voters by modeling their sample to include a higher survey quota for people who are considered “high-probability Trump voters in rural areas.”

“If you think of them as M&Ms, let’s say the Trump M&M vote is red,” Levy said. “We have a few extra red M&Ms in the jar.”


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Seems like whatever you thought of previous polling accuracy doesn't even matter, because they've attempted to course-correct this election and these 2024 presidential polls don't necessarily correspond to previous polling methods (or even to any other election's polls).

The folks who fucked up the math in 2016 and 2020, have done some reactionary math, the results of which are entirely out-of-whack with down-ballot polling? Why shouldn't I question that?

So a statewide poll for Senate is good but President is not? Dems are performing pretty well in the polls in Senate races so this doesn't appear to be a Republican tilt. Just an incredibly unpopular President polling like an incredibly unpopular Presodent does.

Congrats to Dems on finding their Trump to drag down the ticket.

I personally think it will tighten and likely come down to whether Biden can sneak out a win in Michigan despite his troubles in the state. With two unpopular candidates, it comes down to turnout from the base.

But man, I'm blown away with how confident Biden supporters are with his plan and that these polls are off. Maybe they have some inside information we don't have but I'd be panicking and looking to change up strategy if I was them. Especially when democracy or whatever they claim is at stake.

Yes. That's not exactly a new or shocking revelation & practically any article about polling inaccuracies is particular to Trump voters and presidential elections, not Republican voters and/or state elections.

That being said, it certainly doesn't mean I think Joe Biden is leading in polls/popularity/future votes, I just don't have any belief in polling accuracy at this point.

So when they ask a person which Senator they will vote for, it's correct. When they ask that same person which President they vote for, it's wrong.

I don't think it's as bad as those polls look but this is a unique explanation. I can't fathom the stuff we will see if Biden loses. Blew our wad in 2016 over the Russians so maybe the Chinese can be the new villian for why the shitty candidate lost to Trump.

All I ask is that I don't have to sit through 4 years of complaints over voting machines being rigged by Italians or whatever.

Of course it's not that simple. They could be using an entirely different model for Presidential polling for all that you or I know. Here's what I do know once again:


1. Presidential polling was historically bad for the last 2 presidential elections
2. Those folks who fucked up the polling for those last 2 elections have course-corrected their Presidential polling models
3. The Presidential polling results are entirely out-of-whack with the down-ballot polling results


I am absolutely not going to tell you that means Joe Biden isn't losing or isn't a horrible candidate, but you can't tell me those facts aren't remarkable.

The NYT poll is still relying on a lot of voters who didn't vote in 2020 coming out in 2024. Maybe that will happen, but there's reason to be skeptical.

There's no way Trump is up 13 in Nevada and then only 1 nationwide.

Vegas is a traditionally blue bulwark, but I'm seeing a *lot* of support shifting Trump's way, and Republicans making inroads here spells doom for Biden's chances in Nevada, since this state is a big blue southern dot and red everywhere else.

He's not going to lose by 13 points but he's not going to win Nevada. Demographics have shifted. Hispanic voters have soured on him and it's a young state which is now a liability for Biden. Same goes for Arizona.

They might be delusional enough to think they can win these states but his best shot is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seem very winnable (I think he wins Pennsylvania), but I have no idea how he's going to turn the tide around in Michigan.

A lot has changed in just over 4 years.

Trump doesn’t get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any freshman econ student could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs.

The cashiers at Target see what’s going on – they know more about economics than Trump. #TeamJoe

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) June 11, 2019

The sad thing is that this election shouldn't even be close for an incumbent based on historical factors. If this was Joe Biden eight years ago, it would not be close right now. Unfortunately, the opposition hammering away at his frailty and feebleness has taken hold with a lot of voters. If he ends up losing this election, it's going to be because of that.

I think Obama would get 400 electoral votes in this election. The fact the Dems keep having close races with Trump is a sign of just how bad the party is. Whether that's intentional or not is another story.

I wonder if the democrats would be in a better position right now if Biden had announced in 2022 that he would not be seeking another term. Perhaps a viable candidate like Gavin Newsome would have emerged, putting them in a better chance of holding the White House. Harris could be problematic. She's seen as an "empty suit" by a lot of voters, and not just by Trump's MAGAts.

I think that was the initial plan. Have Biden be a bridge to a new candidate in 2024 due to his age. But as we've seen with the Dems, the old guard really hates giving up power. Often at the expense of their base.

Just a moment...

They absolutely should have gone with a younger candidate instead they went with Biden and their strategy is that when push comes to shove and people are in that booth they just can't stomach 4 more years of Trump.

I don't think it will work and we're going to end up with Trump.

They need to message to the Arab community Trump would be worse. Just this weekend he said he would arrest campus protesters. He will obviously side with Bibi.

Who is this mysterious they? Presumably people ran polls and fond out they couldn't win. Dean wasted a shit ton of money to learn the same thing. For better or worse Dem voters picked Biden not some cabal of party elites.

Biden is already doing this. They have identical stances on Israel. Better off focusing on an issue they differ on.

If Trump wins I can't wait for a repeat of some variation of 2016 where dems that didn't vote blame the dems that did vote for Trump winning.

I remember it more as people being angry at Jill Stein voters and blaming Russia. Any excuse besides we picked a dogshit candidate.

You must have missed the entire election cycle because it was crying about Bernie not winning, Bernie bros sitting out November saying there's not much difference between Hillary and Trump, then blaming Hillary voters for Trump winning.

The one thing the progressive left has mastered is shooting itself in the foot and blaming everyone else for their suffering.

Show me where Biden has stated he will arrest campus protesters and enact a muslim ban...

The Democratic Party has a lot of pull in who gets chosen in primaries. They threatened to blacklist and vendors or firms who worked with primary challengers. The DNC was working alongside Clinton in fundraising during the Presidential primary. Every candidate magically dropping out at the same time in 2020 and putting their support behind Biden wasn't an accident. And it was their decision last year to not hold primaries in many states and to not sponsor any debates.

Sure Biden probably wins as an incumbent, but the Democratic Party has been putting their thumb on the scale for a long time to get the candidate they preferred. If they had a true open primary and encouraged debate and other candidates, I think it would have been much more interesting.

There was like 3000 people arrested at protests over the past couple weeks. What's the argument you're making? That Trump wants to continue to do what's actually happening?

Well the blame should be on the shitty candidate who couldn't beat a racist conman who hosted a game show. Why would people that Hillary hates be responsible for Hillary losing?

This is also why Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are not going to be in play. RFK Jr really claws into his numbers. The best path is still PA, MI, and WI.




No. That he wants to send in the national guard en masse and have a potential Kent St situation.

Majority of people arrested aren't even students, it has been local or campus police, and most protests have been allowed to happen, but bend it anyway you want to fit your narrative.

That's just not true. The NYPD lied about that afterwards to save face (that and the comical press conference to say they found a terrorism book among the students). They were counting arrests made on the street and in other parts of the city as part of the college campus protests. They also designated faculty as "not students" to prop up the outside agitator stuff.

It ended up being 2 people in Hamilton Hall that weren't students. One was someone's girlfriend and another was a SPJ representative.

Biden could open up a civil rights investigation against the city as the Mayor did explicitly say he arrested them because he didn't like what the protest was about. But instead he called them violent and insinuated they were terrorists. Now you'll cry when they won't vote for Biden.

And lets not forget this doozy. But please keep citing the NYPD and their corrupt Mayor who's about to be arrested any day now.

and what about all the other campuses? You just going to conveniently ignore them?

Trump has told us in his own words what he will do. If these supposed pro Palestinian protesters chose that it's on them. I'm an upper middle class white dude. I'll be fine

Most of those campuses look like students too. The only one I saw trying to make the outside agitator excuse was the NYPD. And that was when they got pushback for the clear civil rights violation.


No shit dude. We know you don't really care.

Police arrest pro-Palestinian protesters at Penn – NBC10 Philadelphia

I can cherry pick also!

Meanwhile, the camp at my son's college has disbanded after coming to an agreement with administration. No arrests. No cops. No breaking into buildings. Funny, not much on the news about them.

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There has been a huge camp at my Alma Mater, one of the top universities in the nation, Washington, and zero violence, issues, etc...funny how that goes.

You picked an instance where no one was charged with a crime. And students don't have to tell the cops they're students. In fact, it's advised they don't say anything.

The only violence I've seen is from pro-zionist people and the cops. It was the cops who fired their gun at Columbia.

You don't hear about those other protests because the administration isn't calling in the police to have them violently removed.

If progressives are given 2 choices and neither are the exact thing that they want they say they're the same and blame the system.

Not being able to accept the better choice for themselves when given 2 choices and the take my ball and go home mindset when things don't go their way is why progressives haven't taken larger role within the Dem party. And it's not about appeasing the establishment or any of that bullshit. It's about building on small wins to create larger wins down the road.

Trump was the biggest setback to the progressive movement since it really started to gain traction and they're ready to play a role in bringing him back. It's hard to take people seriously about issues they claim to care about when they help put people that are destructive to their cause in office.

spot on

This is the bullshit part. You can't gain "small wins" with the current party. The Democratic Party serves their corporate donors. Nancy Pelosi isn't going to change her position on anything when she can do a little insider trading and make a few million overnight. You're not convincing a bunch of Senators to oppose wars when their campaigns are funded by defense companies. Heck, the biggest accomplishment the Democrats have touted over the past few decades is a giant handout to health insurance companies that you guessed it, heavily funded their campaigns.

There is a point where you realize Lucy is going to keep pulling that football away. The Democratic Party will never accept progressives and never act in their interests. It is more beneficial to the Democratic establishment to allow a Republican to win. Many progressives held their nose and voted for Biden because he did promise some good things (attack climate change, end forever wars, allow protests,etc). But when he stabbed them in the back, you can't blame them for not voting for them.

Progressives are doing fine. The movement has grown immensely and if you look at polls of younger voters, you can see they are largely progressive on a lot of important issues. The current Democrats are not interested in that voter bloc and that's their choice. But they're growing and smart Democrats like Whitmer and Pritzker are courting them for the future. And I think if you're looking for real change out of the "left wing" party in this country, your vote is the best leverage you have. Because voting for them is not getting you anywhere.

And the idea that this is all progressives who are abandoning Biden is wrong. An overwhelming majority of Democratic voters want a permanent ceasefire and the end to weapons being sent to Israel. So unless 83% of Democratic voters are progressives, Biden is taking an incredibly unpopular stance in an election year.

This isn't progressives screwing Biden. It's not China infiltrating our apps. It's a President who is doing something his base hates and paying the price.

And that price is cutting your own foot off to prove a point and then complaining that you don't have a foot.

Let me know how that works out for progressives getting people in office. Not showing up is a hell of strategy.

I find it really rich that dems are being accused of allowing a Republican to win, when it's really groups at the far left that are aligning with trump because of his populist tendencies, and his 'no surrender' approach. Populist left, populist right, still populist. You're seeing big donors changing sides because if trump is gonna pass out big parts of the government ala Putin, they want to be the next US oligarch friend of the boss.



It's gone beyond what's right, to who is gonna win, and there are plenty of people who would rather be a part of the new power coalition, political party be damned. The actual love for the Democracy and country seems to be over.

Doesn't seem like voting for Biden in 2020 did them any good. Biden has shifted even further to the right.

You're also assuming this is all progressives. Genocide is very unpopular despite what you read from some on this board. Not to mention inflation, protectionism, and all the other unpopular issues he has.

Why would dems continue to try to appease a group that has time and time again shown that if they don't get exactly what they want they'll largely just stay home?

Progressives helped Trump win in 2016 and that got them Biden in 2020. Lets see how handing Trump another win 2024 works out.

I haven't said all progressives. I said progressives are helping. There are other factors too.

I'm over it at this point. If progressives want to stay at home, vote 3rd party, or whatever. That's fine. I just don't want to hear the crying when Trump urges Netanyahu to flatten Gaza, deports 11 million+ people, tries to kick protestors out of the country, lowers billionaire taxes again, increases police funding, dismantles the Department of Education and any number of other things progressives claim to care about.

It won't be Biden's fault despite what they'll all tell themselves.

Running the worst politician we've seen in our lifetime helped Trump win in 2016. 8 years of crying about Russia, Bernie, Comey, and whatever lame excuses they had to come up with instead of just admitting that running an unpopular candidate is a bad idea.