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I think I've explained that. The best I have to go on is that BK was trying to save PB. I don't have much reason to go after anyone else. |
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Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything. |
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1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game! 2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory. 3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else. |
Well, that was fun! I'm heading home -- maybe there will be more to hash out when I get back.
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In a large game? Nope. In a smaller game where one or two lynches going right change everything, I don;t know. I've never been a wolf in a smaller game, only in larger ones. There, I try to lay low, which is easier to do in a large game. Here, maybe you do the opposite. Make yourself as visible as possible so that people go elsewhere. Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked. Now, I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but you have to admit, it isn;t as crazy as you make it sound. |
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How did you know he was lying if cronin couldn't tell you I was Lucifer? |
For now, several people mark me as a bit snaky, with PB and Pass at the top, so I am following the lead of the person who is mostly cleared to my thinking - path.
Vote Pass |
Sucks that I just missed him though, but it sounds like he's coming back later.
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You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are. |
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If you come up bad, I think PB becomes tomorrow's vote. If you come up good, then that is up in the air and I would definitely think we'd get a scan on him tonight. I'm as wrong at times with my analysis as everyone else who plays this game, but I think that in this case we have the best chance to learn something whether you come up good or bad (which is unusual for me day 2). |
Well, I have no reason to doubt path. Lead the way Moses!!!
Vote Pass |
Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.
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Who was your view yesterday? |
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Ditto this. I split in 25 minutes, unlikely to come back, so for me to move my vote, it's kinda important. |
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This is why I've been fingering PB -- I feel like BK felt safe trying to save PB because he wasn't under attack. It seems that a lot of the argument for voting for me rests on the premise that BK was trying to save PB -- possibly along with me. Why not go with the simpler part of the premise, instead of the more convoluted part? |
I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.
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Boo! Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm... Unvote Passacaglia |
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I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it. |
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Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book. |
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Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views. |
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Oh I know, but your scan was correct. The fact it was correct at least makes me not want to see you immediately lynched. I may not be cleared, but you've at least got a 50/50 shot at being someone very important. There's really only a few scenarios - You're lying and you're a wolf. I'd entertain this if you live through the night somehow and then don't scan a wolf. That's the only case to revisit you - You're the fake seer. Then let's at least make them night kill you - You're the real seer. Then we're a touch screwed here. In none of those though does it make sense to lynch you today. |
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Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two? |
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I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases Real Seer, Real Result - YAY Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned. |
Dola, I'm not sure if I buy the reveal or not. Cons:
1) Seer is the obvious role to fake in this game, because nobody is going to come out to challenge you, unless by some freak coincidence the real seer found the fake one last turn. 2) jeheinz wasn't in the conversation much at all yesterday, so it seems a strange choice to me when there were much better candidates to scan IMO. Pro: 1, 1A and 2) I don't want to lynch a seer. Hmmm. |
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That's a good point. Especially since if I were the fake seer, it's not very likely that I would mistakenly scan someone as a wolf. |
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I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game. |
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We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view. |
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Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys. |
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I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer. |
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I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure. |
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Ah gotcha. Yeah, I think I'm about 99% positive that there are only 2 good-sided Seer's |
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Exactly. Frankly, real or not, there is zero point in us lynching you today. If we want to rehash a lie/truth/fake seer/real seer we might as well do that tomorrow. We'll have an excellent read on your wolfiness after the night kill. If you're alive and don't hit a wolf, I'll be more than suspicious. But for today, there is no point in doing that. |
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This is interesting to me. Hold on Unvote Pass Okay, let's chat. I've moved my vote off for now. In this game, would a wolf false reveal as a seer? I'm just wondering. It'd be a brillant move. Peg a wolf as a "seer", have us vote for him, and then each of the two seers think they are the bad one, and neither reveals. You didn;t do that though. You only "cleared" someone, not pegged someone. That makes me more inclined to beleive you. |
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Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question. |
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True, but isn't that really in play at all times? I mean there is one good role left (that isn't used, the Seer). Crossing you off as the duke, there are 9 people we could lynch. It's 1 in 9 we lynch the seer on accident. 11.1%. If we take Pass out and clear him as a lynch candidate for today at least, it's 1 in 8 now, or 12.5%. So we've only really increased our chances of lynching the Seer today by 1.4%. |
It's not worth the risk. I'll go the other direction.
UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA VOTE PURDUEBRAD |
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I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training. ;) |
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It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules. |
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I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic. |
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Ok, I appreciate it. I'm off to the store for a while and will check in before dinner. |
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There we go. |
Well, I'm likely out until morning. I can't see anyone else worth putting a vote on so I might as well...
Vote PurdueBrad My hunch is he's the Wolf Lover, so I fully expect someone else to die. |
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Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually? |
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I forgot to mention that when it came down to it, all that stuff was probably for flavor, anyway, and he wasn't trying to drop any hints. |
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It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow. |
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Ok, I'll trust you today. Unvote Pass |
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Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations". |
I don't really know where to go now. I'll think more about it when I get back.
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The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.
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This is correct. |
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