![]() |
yeah - i chuckle at whoever said this is over. this is a long way from over.
|
Quote:
I continue to stand by my opinion that we have turned the corner on this and are heading in to the home stretch and I mean all of that in a bad way. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
there is nothing more I want to be wrong about than this opinion so I, indeed, hope to be proven wrong and Iran and it's people get freed from that Theocracy. I simply dont see the numbers, firepower, or international support ot bring about the massive change that is needed and see it ending like it did in China did too many years ago. |
Quote:
Quote:
It amazes me this guy can keep a straight face through half of the shit he says. |
Sullivan has a post that says the recount shows an even greater margin of victory for Ahmadinejad. If you're going to lie make it a big lie.
|
Quote:
yeah - except the people didn't buy the initial lie so there's zero chance they buy the bigger one :lol: |
Interesting read discussing the current tensions amongst the clerics. The Supreme Leader's integrity and power structure has really been compromised at this point. He's made a lot of enemies in recent days.
http://tehranbureau.com/widening-divide/ |
Huge news coming out of Iran today. The most important religious group in Iran has called out the Supreme leader and his associates and declared the results to be illegitimate. Reports just out say that their site has been blocked by the government. This is likely to be a huge boost to the opposition. It puts the Supreme Council and the President on an island.
Leading Clerics Defy Ayatollah on Disputed Iran Election - NYTimes.com Quote:
|
More great news. A U.S. programmer has created an application that allows Iranians to circumvent the government controls. Should allow information to start flowing much more freely again.
Austin Heap » Blog Archive » Haystack: Good Luck Finding That Needle |
Quote:
As much as the "Government" in place will again acuse us of meddling, something little like this probably has a positive affect on the population in the way they view the west. Of course the population that wants/needs this probably already viewed us favorably anyway, while the ones that hate us will continue to. Maybe a drop in the bucket, but it allows the opposition to stay informed and in touch and eventually even drops will fil a bucket. The really good news for me in all this, is the Iranians now have an internal problem that is very much on the world stage and won't be explained away with propaganda and anti-west rhetoric. |
Unfortunately the stature of the group that is calling out the people in charge, is questionable....the article below calls it a counter:
Quote:
Pro-reform clerical body protests Iran elections - Yahoo! News I love the new program and HOPE that it becomes widespread to get the ball rolling again. As I said before, IMO, this is over and will take another 3-5 years to make another attempt....but like I said to Duckman, I hope and pray I am wrong. |
DOLA:
This carries more weight IMO: Quote:
Hopefully Rafsanjani can move the ball forward behind the scenes but the street protests are largely over while the chants continue at night. |
Quote:
Exactly. Many of the pro-reform groups that were listed as outcasts by the theocracy/dictatorship represent the views of the majority in Iran. With the options online being reopened and the groups being termed as opposition or outsiders now carrying the support of the majority (they did before the election, but now they are able to voice their support), it's quickly coming to a point where the theocracy leaders need to start compromising or it's going to be a steady decline of their power structure. The opposition is in an excellent position to undermine everything the leaders think they can control. It can be done methodically and efficiently without much international help. |
Quote:
Or alternately they can take the gloves off, cut the head off the proverbial snake (no offense intended, just a useful metaphor), and simply wait for the body to die around sundown. I'd give you better odds on that scenario than the one you propose. |
Videos are slow to come out, but they continue to leak out slowly. More video of protesters taking down police two days ago as the violence continues in the streets. The control structure has taken a heavy hit at this point when you have people openly taunting and beating police three weeks later.
YouTube - iranians beating the anti riot police (July 3rd 2009---Please share) |
Saudi Arabia has now given Israel the OK to fly through their airspace to attack Iran........
Saudis give nod to Israeli raid on Iran - Times Online |
Perhaps that video was a stealth riot, or one of the last or misdated?
Quote:
Iran's opposition leader makes public appearance - Yahoo! News Im not sure that there wont be a more strategic time for a revolution in the next few years but IMO this isn't the right time once the momentum began to falter. |
Quote:
How exactly can the West's relationship with Iran get any worse? |
the Evil Eye.
|
Good article that details just how important the clerical group release calling the election illegitimate really is. It puts both the Supreme leader and the religious military groups in a bind. The religious establishment has issues at this point, both in the open and behind the scenes, that won't go away anytime soon.
Mullahs on My Mind |
Some brutal reports from Iranian doctors...........
Iran: doctors denounce terror in hospitals - National Council of Resistance of Iran - Foreign Affairs Committee |
Large protests expected today in Iran. Videos have been circulated detailing how to disable Basij motorcycles.
Also, more news coming out regarding the quickly widening cracks in the Supreme Leader's power. He has put his son in charge of the Basij, indicating increased disloyalty amongst the Basij ranks, who are little more than paid mercinary thugs for the most part who have no loyalty to the regime. The problem is that most of the clerical leaders see this move as a power grab. The only thing keeping the clerics from speaking out is a realization that their dissent could cause the entire political structure to collapse, opening the door wide for a full revolution. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...s-iran-militia It's amazing that this situation has reached this level of instability and we haven't even reached the 40th day mourning protests that are likely to be very large and bloody. |
I hope youre right in your expectations.
|
Quote:
We could begin an indiscriminate bombing campaign that results in the widespread loss of life and turns what pro-Western (or at least ambivalent-Western) people do exist in Iran, against us as well. Hey, you asked. :p |
I hope MBBF's definition of Large is flexible:
Quote:
|
Quote:
Actually, if there is one thing that historically has turned a group of civilians further away from hostility and belligerence--it's been indiscriminate bombing in rediculously large doses. ;) |
Incredible videos of the demonstrations over at Huffington Post. Pretty amazing how bad the MSM has been in reporting the number of protesters. They've really missed the boat on Iran over the past month. As Andrew Sullivan has pointed out in recent weeks, their reporting is relatively worthless if you're looking for good information. He's linked some live blogs where good information can be found.
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan A dozen are reported dead, which is bad news for the regime. That just adds to the mourning protests and increases the opportunities for future protests. It's yet another situation that mirrors the issues that the Shah's regime had in 1979. It's almost eerie in its similarity. |
More info coming out regarding protests. Many of MSM reports are only covering one protest, hence the reason for their inaccurate reports. A new tactic used today was to have many small protests across the city. The Basij and paramilitary were preparing for one large protest and are not equipped well for multiple clashes spread out over the city. It appears to have worked well as there are several reports where protesters overwhelmed the undermanned Basij in some areas. Probably will see more of this kind of tactic moving forward.
|
Quote:
One would think that it's the sort of tactic that works best the first time it's used & then with decreasing effectiveness afterwards. Unless of course the opponent is simply to stupid to adjust accordingly. |
if 2000-3000 is large what is your definition of small?
I do not think the words "accurate" or "innacurate" means what you think it means. |
Quote:
Are the numbers from CNN accurate? They have done a horrible job of covering the crisis, and have noone inside Iran anymore, methinks. |
dunno, but that info is just as good as MBBF's garnered from Blogs....
{shrug} MBBF has an agenda in this thread (much like many others) and it would be nice to see him be 'real' instead of spinning one way or the other ESPECIALLY considering that 100% of the people in this thread support the Iranian people in this and hope that they do get democracy, true democracy, and their freedom(s). I mean why is MBBF spinning the people that are walking lockstep with him...like were in Jonestown or something. |
Just like Flasch trying to prove he's the authority of what is right or decent, but coming off as a self centered piece of trash. It's more important to be right than anything else that is meaningful.
Again, MBBF = Flasch. |
mmmmk.
|
Quote:
They've shown several tactic changes thus far. Most of the changes follow the blueprint of the 1979 revolution and have worked well. They'll have to make sure they keep switching on the fly. Quote:
Crowd estimates on the ground yesterday were around 25,000. As mentioned before, they were in 6-8 locations until joining together late in the day. |
Link?
|
Give it a rest Flasch. It's a big enough story that it was on the front page of the Washington Post today (color picture above the fold, story on page A12). You're trying to pick a fight where there's no need for one.
|
I dont get the Washington Post nor do I troll the online newspapers daily (maybe I should). I was truly hoping he could point me in the direction of the data, from a reliable source, so I can believe what he is 'seeing'. We're all rooting for them but he peppers his posts with so much spin it's hard to know what is real and spin...For example the police building set on fire...well not really. Im not asking for much when I ask for a link from a reputable news source as opposed to a blog or twitter account.
and than FWIW we have this thread be a partisan free zone and he starts using these colorful adjectives in his posts that make it hard to get only facts so one HAS to start digging for the data and cobbling their own opinions (like mine). I have no idea if Im right or wrong, much to Duckman's chagrine, but from what I read, from trusted sources (whether or not the right who the F knows) I form an opinion, like everyone else. As I said Im on MBBF's side on this but want the facts (whatever there are and less PS3 spin). |
It really hard not to get the news from Twitter or Blogs, since thats where CNN is getting their news from. I don't think CNN has a reporter within 500 miles of Tehran.
|
Quote:
You call this assy post "truly hoping he could point me in the direction of data"? First of all, he already said before this that he's seen reports of 25,000. Therefore, he's not saying that 2000-3000 is large, he's saying that 25,000 is large. Also, I love the princess bride and all, but that line is so condescending and insulting when used in real life. If you want something to respond to, you can say what you're thinking about his use of the word "accurate" rather than pull this crap. And if you ARE going to do it, at least spell "inaccurate" properly, and use proper conjugation! |
I would venture to guess that CNN, which Im actually quite dismayed about, is filtering through all the twittering and blogging (which makes their channel unbearable) and would vocalize and paint the stuff that has some semblance of credility or slap the all too often used "unsubstantiated" in the bottom right corner of the screen. I dont watch much MSNBC because they seem to be the same as Fox so Im left watching CNBC. {shrug} which aint too bad after all.
|
Quote:
thats not true. In his earlier post he said large and the news reports were 2000-3000 so it is a valid question to ask if he considers that large, small, and vice versa. 25,000 was drummed up later in the thread. My apologies on the spelling, sometimes my speed trumps my spelling but it doesnt change the fact that this thread, one in which we are all in the same fan club, gets spun when it doesnt need to be, as Wade pointed out earlier. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I stated mine a few pages earlier that we are seeing this wind down. I continue to stand by that opinion and hope to be proven wrong. MBBF's newsdrops just simply are not accurate {shrug} but spun....in a thread that doesnt need to be. The Obama thread, sure. The Palin thread. Ok. PS3 v Xbox. fire away....But why here? |
Typical Flasch response. Read the sig.
|
yup, im one piece of trash in this world.
|
Quote:
Troops willing to die to stop Iran unrest, general says - CNN.com |
I still find all the folks who seem enamored with the latest urgently breaking mega mond news from the techno doodads incredibly amusing.
Largely out of touch with reality (and realpolitik in particular) & likely targets for future sales of bridges, swamp land, and incredible opportunities for substantial wealth from Nigeria ... but amusing nonetheless. |
Jon, that sentence hurt my head :)
|
I'd like to point out that if you're in the oil business, there are, in fact, opportunities for incredible wealth from Nigeria and most involve being in a swamp, coincidentally. :D
|
Quote:
My wife's great grandparents had a large plot of land in Canada that they farmed in the late 1800s. They sold it after a couple of years for pennies on the dollar. Nothing would grow on the land because they had all this black ooze coming up everywhere on the property. :D |
More protests and confrontation expected on Friday per links on Andrew Sullivan's blog. Some of the bigger leaders in the opposition may participate.......
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day? | Enduring America In addition, the senior cleric in Iran has issued a fatwa declaring the Supreme Leader's regime "illegitimate and defying Islam"......... http://tehranbureau.com/grand-ayatol...tazeris-fatwa/ |
FWIW
This is a very good informative post In my opinion and exactly what people like me are looking for in this thread. EDIT to add - I still dont like that we're considering 'news' to be bloggish but it is what it is. |
Quote:
This seems somewhat serious. |
Quote:
Seems pretty ballsy, eh? I don't think these kinds of things get enough credit. This guy is risking his life with this comment. It'll definitely stir up the masses assuming guys like Mousavi hold up their end and show up for the protests. I think they'll do so. |
Can somebody please explain to me why the links in this thread have been my best source of info since the initial rush?
|
cuz the mainstream media has no access and they know the typical american tv viewer likes pictures over substance so they're reluctant to cover it
|
Quote:
In all honesty, because relatively few Americans of working age actually give a serious damn about this. It's a sidebar at absolute most for the average TV viewer, there's little margin in covering it in more than the most cursory manner & doubly or triply so given the apparent difficulties in covering it accurately. edit to add: You're getting more coverage on this here than elsewhere because it's essentially a niche deal, same as sports text sims. |
A possible revolution in the regions most powerful nation is a niche? Man that is crazy. This could change the face of the world if, as Im assuming it is correct, a more friendly-to-the-USA leader gains power.
|
Quote:
Go talk to 100 random Americans & see how many of them are following the story in anything other than the most casual fashion. Quote:
LOL. This is akin to trading one sack of shit for a slightly smaller sack of shit. If that's face of the world changing stuff then the planet is too unstable to last much longer & it won't matter much anyway. edit to add: On the importance meter, this might amount to a tenth of what Kim's reported illness in NK amounts to, at least there we can still hope somebody also knocks off the chosen equally batshit crazy heir & there could be an actual significant improvement in the situation. |
But if a more western friendly type leader is in power and the ayatollah loses power, and the masses want a more western type country, that could bode well for the USA.
Yeah, I know Mousavi may not be all that. But maybe he is the first step to Iran electing a leader that is pro-freedom in the near future. |
Quote:
I guess I'd have more than a trivial interest (i.e. I'm following this story with a passing interest largely because it's random info that's out there & crosses my path vs something I have any passion about following) if I thought for even a minute that: 1) That would happen in the next hundred years 2) That it would actually be remotely functional as a government even if it did 3) That it would actually make any substantial difference in the relationship between the U.S./Iran or more generally The West/Iran. But I don't believe any of those things are even remotely realistic, so this is kind of the socio-political equivalent to me knowing that Bruno nipped the Ice Age sequel in the weekend box office receipts. I don't particularly give a major shit, but I know nevertheless. |
I understand how the average TV watching American doesn't give a shit, but I'm probably somewhere in between being hardcore news addict and the average dipshit when it comes to my 'give a shit'ness. I read BBC, I read Drudge, I read other news outlets. But when it comes to Iran, I'm getting all my info in this thread.
Unless I'm not looking hard enough. But having others follow sites that I don't follow and posting the relevant stuff here is nice and appreciated because this is a topic I do give a shit about. |
Quote:
The average American votes once every 4 years and often only votes knowing a small portion of the information about each candidate. I don't think it should be any less surprising that the average American isn't tuned in to the fact that possible world-changing events are occurring in Iran. |
More info coming out today. First a brutal raping of a woman who was taken on the streets. Her 'womb and anus were ruptured in an unfortunate accident' according to the government official. That's a helluva 'accident'.
Shirin Sadeghi: The Rape of Taraneh: Prison Abuse of Iran's Protesters Mousavi will be at Friday sermon and more protests in the street are planned after that sermon............. Mousavi: Protesters' blood will not go in vain More video of the nightly rooftop protests that continue into their 4th week........ Last Night’s Chants of “Allah-o Akbar” « niacINsight |
Quote:
And the raped woman will probably be executed for daring to be raped. |
Quote:
Actually, they won't do that. As was mentioned over at Andrew Sullivan's site, if they kill her, she becomes a martyr. If they let her live, she is a relative outcast in their society (i.e. it was somehow her fault). Interesting read about tomorrow. Good points in here about how many of the opposition leaders prefer to work behind the scenes to uproot power rather than doing it in an open manner. Also notes the surprising resignation of the leader of the country's nuclear program. Iran Opposition Leader Plans Public Appearance - NYTimes.com |
Heavy protests in the streets following the Friday sermon. Lots of confrontations between riot police and protesters. Several thousand protesters now have the State-run media building surrounded and are trying to break in. There are reports that religious police are becoming battle-weary and that government is having to pay more to get more 'volunteer' forces into Tehran.
I'll link the general thread for this week's information over at Huffington Post if interested in more/ongoing details........... Iran Uprising Blogging: Latest Updates |
I'd agree that THIS is enough people, IMO, to be considered 'Large':
Quote:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090717/..._iran_election |
Lots of news coming out of Iran today (links via Huffington Post blog). Supreme Leader remains defiant, calls for opposition to stand down.......
The Associated Press: Iran supreme leader warns opposition to back down Intriguing stuff here. 36 Army soldiers of various rank were arrested after attempting to protest government crackdown at Friday sermon...... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...icers-arrested Former Iranian president calls for referendum on legitimacy of current government. http://blog.taragana.com/n/irans-ex-...crisis-114522/ Former parliament speaker calls out government violence..... Quote:
|
This has to be a relatively scary turn of events for many of the police from rural areas who are getting paid to crack down. The opposition is now posting pictures of people who have killed innocent protesters. The one in the below link is a big one......he's the guy that killed Neda.
Arash Hejazi's contemplations Makes it awfully tough to recruit people when they know they might have their picture posted on the internet as a thug to be targeted. |
also scary in that how do you know that he is actually the guy that killed her? It flies in the face of trial and justice to do this and I hope that it doesn't sully their gains towards freedom.
Also Im happy to admit that the internal pressures coming from Rafsanjani may in fact be a long term boon towards a change over there and prove me wrong in that I believed it was over (I still think it tapered off too much to achieve their goals)...it's legs are longer than I initially thought. I hope they prove me wrong in full. |
Quote:
Given that the government is posting the faces of innocent protesters for the same purpose and imprisoning thousands without trial, I don't think its a bad idea at all to post the picture of the man who killed an innocent woman in cold blood. Also, you may not know this, but he has been identified by the doctor who treated Neda on the scene as the one who fired the shots that killed her. |
Quote:
And we all know that eyewitnesses are never wrong, nor do any of them eer have agendas of their own. As I've alluded to previously, even if the Keystone Koup gets what it wants, the only thing that's going to change there is the faces on the posters. |
Quote:
Well, in an ideal world, we'd work all that out, but when the government makes efforts to imprison the key witness forcing him to flee the country, it's somewhat difficult to get all of that done. I don't think there's any question who the victim is in this case. |
Interesting note here. Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson leaves Iran in protest of crackdown, saying that his grandfather would not have approved of the tactics when he was alive.
Khomeini’s Grandson Flees Iran « niacINsight |
A ton of updates over the past day too numerous to mention, so I'll just post the update thread.......
Iran Uprising Blogging: Friday Updates Highlights include a documentary video about the Basij, several of Ahmini's cabinet walking out of a meeting in protest, and further calls for Ahmini's VP to be removed from consideration for office. Also a couple of fatwas mixed in concerning the political crisis and an article detailing the worsening nature of Iran's economic stability. |
Interesting battle developing between the supreme leader and Ahmini.
Two Ministers Forced to Leave Iran's Cabinet - washingtonpost.com |
the economy may be what "breaks" them in the end - it was in 79
|
Article detailing the general public outrage in Iran as the stories of abuse and murder slowly begin to leak out. More protests are planned. Big day tomorrow (Thursday) as it is the 40th day after Neda's murder, which is expected to draw large crowds for the all-important mourning day.
Reports of Prison Abuse and Deaths Anger Iranians - NYTimes.com |
Mousavi continues to ratchet up the rhetoric concerning torture...........
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Torture claim against Iran trial |
This is a spike to the anger level over there, I would imagine, and somewhat push the issue back to the fore....although it seems to me that we're entering the home stretch wherein revolution will be on the backburner at least for another 4ish years :( :
Iran judiciary looks to calm prison abuse outrage - Yahoo! News Quote:
|
|
|
hey I forgot about this thread
/unfortunate sarcasm |
bump
|
bubbling up:
Dueling marches pit Iran hardliners vs. reformers - Yahoo! News Quote:
|
Thought this would be just as good a place to discuss the Iran situation as anywhere else. Several situations going on right now.
1. New hidden nuclear plant. 2. Direct talks between the U.S. and Iran later this week. 3. Suiss being allowed to check on the three U.S. hostages (who are big-time pawns at this point). 4. Israel ratcheting up talk of an attack on Iran within 6 months. 5. Rooftop protests continue nightly, especially in Tehran. Other than that, not much going on. :) |
Now this is a turn of events I didnt see coming
Quote:
|
Incredible stuff here. This kid just stood up and nailed the Supreme Leader for 20 minutes in a public forum. Better yet, he came off as highly intelligent and did a great job of laying out his argument. VERY brave guy.
Mahmoud Vahidnia, Student, Stuns Iran By Criticizing Supreme Leader |
is there video of it that we can see?
|
More protests followed by crackdowns. Plenty of video and pictures have been leaked. This will lead to another cycle of mourning protests, which will lead to more deaths, etc......
Iran Police Gun Down Protesters, Protesters Fight Back (PHOTOS) (VIDEO) |
I'm not familiar with all the details of Shiaism, but apparently the killing of Mousavi's nephew, a Sayyid, on Ashura has the potential to cause a firestorm.
|
Quote:
Yes, and I was just reading more about that where the reports coming back are that he was assassinated rather than just a protester being killed. They drove to his house and ran him over with a truck before 5 men stepped out of the truck and shot him dead after running him over. http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.co...i-mousavi.html I've seen the thoughts in the below article echoed in several places, but it appears that the actions yesterday have left the current regime no options to throw out a sacrificial lamb (i.e. the Supreme leader or Ahmini) and save their power. The irony is that the protesters are now seen as the ones fighting for religious reasons and the regime is seen as clutching for power. We Americans could easily see the motives long ago, but it's now ringing true in Iran's lower and middle class, which is a huge tipping point. http://www.thenewestdeal.org/2009/12...ng-of-end.html |
i have a surprising amount of confidence that they'll actually get it done - maybe not tomorrow or the next day or whatever, but this generation will get it done.
|
Iranian authorities are hitting protestors with trucks.
RendeR will be happy to know that none of the protestors were armed, so there was no chance of any of them "escalating" things by shooting at the people trying to run them over. |
Quote:
Wow. If that doesn't leave you speechless, nothing will. |
Video of an entire group of baseej being disarmed by an angry mob..........
Another interesting update that the plane for the Supreme Leader and his family that would be used for escape was inspected for flight two days ago, indicating the leadership has real concerns that the conflict will escalate to uncontrollable levels in the coming weeks........... Shahrzad News: "A jet put on standby to flly Iranian officials" |
Quote:
I wonder where the hell they would fly to exactly? |
I was reading that the government there has gotten a lot better at shutting down people online so the information would be much harder to come by.
|
Quote:
If it's a negotiated exit I'd imagine it wouldn't be that hard to find a safe haven. Hell, I'd almost give them a condo in the U.S. if it meant they'd leave Iran. |
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:47 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.