Sweet.

Ibanez > Burrell (although we still have a need for a right-handed bat).

You know what, I'm going to be rooting for the Mets this year in the NL. Cubs or Mets as the NL World Series representative.

I am not enthralled with this move for the Phillies. It's basically a push offensively (with a slight edge to Burrell) and a push defensively (with a slight edge for Ibanez). I think Burrell's money is going to be in the same financial range also. Given that one is right handed which fits the Phillie lineup to a tee and one is left handed and unbalances the Phillie lineup, I'd rather have the one who fits the lineup....

Burrell was pretty streaky, and there are some thing I think you can measure with just numbers.

If anything, Ibanez was one of "Pat's Guys". I have enough faith in that that it is an upgrade.

Hell, just look at other fans reactions to Ibanez here in this thread. He's not an MVP candidate, but if he hits consistently (which he has) and is a good fielder, he's a good addition at that price.

He's not a good fielder though. He was the second worst left fielder in baseball last year according to The Fielding Bible...I would have rather paid Burrell.

One of the local guys who has had some decent baseball source news in the past says that no team has actually offered Teixeira more than 6 years.

He said that his sources put it, in order, Red Sox, Angels, Nationals in likelihood of signing him right now. All are about comparable in terms of annual salary at the moment.

Which, if true, of course, means Boras is doing his usual hard media sell, trying to play one team off of another.

Heh, as if being a Blue Jays fan wasn't frustrating enough.

I like to torture myself. I like Minaya, Wright, Reyes, Delgado... and the setup/closer combo they have there now. And I want to see the Cubs with a World Series.

I don't think the Jays will do anything this year, so I need a team that could actually make the playoffs.

But they just signed Matt Clement!

ESPN.com reports that Yankees sign Burnett for 5 years, 82.5 million.

sportsillustrated.com (among others) is reporting that A.J. Burnett has signed with the Yankees.

$82.5m over five years seems like overpaying to me but the Yankees will probably turn a profit anyway so they won't care.

edit: beaten by seconds

Yes, and Burrell was f'in awesome at fielding.

I think an oak tree would've been a defensive upgrade out there.

It's pretty much a wash, but it's not anything more than a minor upgrade. Given that the bat is worse and from the wrong side of the plate, I'm less than thrilled.

CC and Burnett. Yanks ain't fucking around.

Yanks had plenty of room freed up by enormous expiring contracts like Giambi and Mussina so we should have expected this. I wonder if they still have enough to go after another pitcher or Teixera. I heard they may just re-sign Pettitte as a back end starter. Not sure what they're doing at 1B now with Giambi gone though.

True dat.

The 1B hole is interesting, which is why I think the Yanks really do go very hard after Tex.

I thought they swent after Swisher to fill that 1B hole, not that that would stop them from pursuing Teixeira.

My guess is they're not really interested, because I think the Boras camp would leak news of an actual Yanks' offer to the media to try to get the Sox and Halos to bump their offers.

lol - i think burnett will be pavano 2.0 and CC will eat his way to 300 sooner rather than later

Heh...just today I made that same comparison of burnett to pavano to my bro at lunch, and that was before I found out the Yanks had actually signed him.

i love the fact they paid 82mil for a guy with a 4 era last year - LOL

Well that should leave the Braves room to resign Glavine and then make a bad offer to Smoltz driving him elsewhere. Maybe we'll pick up Chan Ho Park to round out the rotation when Glavine's arm falls off after another three inning start.

I liked Burnett. :(

How come Abreu gets no love? He reminds me of Burrell, in the sense that when you look at their stats, they seem like guys you would love to have on your roster. I know stats dont always paint the full picture though. As a Mets fan, I wouldnt mind bringing Abreu in. They do need an OF, and I know his defense is pretty horrible, but a guy who is gonna hit .300, 20+HR and drive in 85-100 runs, with an OBP of 400 would be very nice to plug in the #2 whole. He knows how to work counts, which will give Reyes plenty opportunity to work his magic on the base paths, and with his high OBP it will give the Wrights, Beltrans and Delgados chance to knock him in.

I'm surprised teams don't insist on divisional non-compete clauses when they make opt-out clause offers in contracts.

I heard on the radio the other dat that Texiare was qouted as saying he "hates" Arod so I would be surpriseed if he heads there. HE seems like a better fit in Boston and the Sox need to make a move to keep up.

I do like the wishful thinking ;).

Remember people thought Beckett was going to be Pavano 2.0 ;)

not really. people were worried about beckett's blisters - which haven't really been much of a problem. burnett's injuries have been much more internal and breakdown-ish

I'm thinking you misremember the time around Beckett's trade. Blisters were a part of it, but there was plenty of talk about the fact that the guy couldn't stay healthy to save his life in Florida and in '05 he just barely pitched enough innings to have a "breakout season" to earn him a ticket out.

Or put it this way, AJ Burnett has pitched in more innings in the last 3 years with Toronto than Beckett did in his final 3 years with the Marlins. And Burnett has pitched more innings in the last 2 years than Beckett has (though Beckett has had a far better last 2 years) ;).

That's stupid though - Ibanez is an awful signing for the Phillies. At his best, he is Pat Burrell-light with the bat, worse defensively, and 4 years older. Moreover, he's a lefty, and assuming that put him with Howard and Utely, you've just set up an opposing manager's dream's LOOGY scenario (Howard essentially turns into a scrub against left handers).

To make it even stupider, instead of offering Burrell arb and him potentially accpeting (even on an expensive 1 year deal) - you didnt, and instead gave up draft choices for a 37 year old. Just all around awful decision making.

Hey, they did just win a World Series.

I won't give them crap until they actually bomb on the field next season. :)

Good riddance to you, AJ and your injuries!

Not really:

The Ultimate Headscratcher | FanGraphs Baseball




So, Ibanez is worse defensively and worse offensively. k.

He's a Philadelphian. Of course he's a pessimist. :)

Also, are these numbers adjusted via park?

As a Yankees fan I have mixed feelings on these signings. While it was clearly evident that the Yanks needed started pitching, I think they will regret the length of both Sabathia and Burnett's contract. Burnett has shown throughout his career that he will only pitch to his full potential when there is money at stake. While I don't think his tenure will mirror Pavano, I do believe he will spend plenty of time on the DL.

The Yankees are a team with many deficiencies. Their defense is simply atrocious. Picking up Swisher was a terrible move. He's expensive and can't hit his way out of a paper bag. At second base Cano won't dive for a ball at any cost. I was hoping this off season they would trade him. The way I see it the Red Sox and Rays are still ahead of the Yankees. If Boston can sign Teixeria they would have a lineup that isn't matched in the AL East.

Of course.

Say wha?

While Swisher had a poor year last season (but really came on at the end), his two prior years, in Oakland, he had OPS+ of 125 and 127.

There is no arguing his defense is excellent, but his bat is a whole other story. Here are his numbers which i'm sure you already have.

2004 .250 BA

2005 .236 BA

2006 .254 BA

2007 .262 BA

2008 .219 BA

If Swisher is an every day player at 1B for NY they're in deep trouble.

I would just back away if I were you. Issidiqui is one of the sabermetric monks, and there is no point getting into a baseball value discussion with one. ;)

:eek:

Are you familiar with the concepts of OBP and SLG and park adjusted/era adjusted OPS+?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/swishni01.shtml

2006:

.372 OBP, .493 SLG, 125 OPS+ (meaning 25% better than the average batter)

2007:

.381 OBP, .455 SLG, 127 OPS+ (27% better)


What exactly does BA matter if the OBP is so high? Did you think that Giambi had a bad year last year?!!

Yes, we have very good numbers-fu, which I'm sure is what you meant ;).

The Yankees couldn't wait to get out from under Giambi's contract. They don't pay him over 20 million to hit .247 and walk. There is no arguing with your research, I agree that OBP is an important stat. I just don't think NY can get by with Swisher as an every day player. I'm entitled to my opinion as you are. It's clear you're a big fan of the game and do your homework.

Nick Swisher's BABIP in '07 was .301 and in '08 it was .249. His huge dip in BA was mostly a fluke and is where most of his dip in value came from. Its highly unlikely that he has a sub-.250 BA again and the Yankees will probably look pretty good in this deal before its all said and done.

lmao...trust me, JT, this is a discussion going nowhere. You're talking to a one of the most intractable groupings here at FOFC. All you'll do is give yourself a headache. And Crapshoot hasn't even come by yet.

The money is a big concern, but Giambi "hitting .247 and walk" is a canard, as walking is a positive result and that ignores his power. Giambi had a .373 OBP and a .503 SLG, which resulted in an OPS+ of 128. Outside of A-Rod, Giambi had, by far, the highest SLG of any Yankee. He also only ground into double plays 6 times all year.

Hell, based on overall performance and production per dollar, he had a far better season that Jeter did. If you add defense, I'm sure it gets closer, but seeing as how Jeter isn't really a good defensive SS, probably not all that much.

But, he also is 37 and has some really bad baggage from the steroids mess, and thus time for a change.

Probably 2nd only to the pro-playoff crowd. :D

I do think there's a real, legitimate question though in an offseason where money seems to be no object that they aren't making a run at Texeria. No matter what you think of Swisher, nobody would argue he's in Texeria's league. Realistically, if you could get Texeria, you could get away with playing Swisher in CF or even as DH.

Yeah, Swisher's far better than his season with us last year suggests.

I believe the Yanks have thrown their hat into the ring. We'll see how deep they get into it... as the Angels seem to indicate that they are willing to go pretty deep... offering an 8th year today.

There's been rumors floating around the past few days that the Yankees may make a run at Teixeira if things continue to drag out with him. But yes, you take Teixeira over Swisher any day and I would have went after him instead of Sabathia.

I'm a long time lurker. Been reading the board since 2006. Lots of intelligent well thought opinions here. I look forward to being a part of it, even if I get a few bumps and scratches :cool:

That's true - we actually care about factual basis, rather than basing our statements on what you heard on talk radio today. :D

Saves are important.

Please don't let the fuckin Yankees get Teixeira. I want to keep their first round pick for signing CC.

I think its premature to completely kill off Batting Avg as a useful tool. Yes, OPS is probably better, but a hit is still, and will always be far superior to a walk. A walk doesn't score a runner in scoring position. A walk doesn't give you runners a chance to take extra bases with speed or a fielding miscue.

"far superior" is a bit of a stretch. Better in some respects, yes, but not by as much as you think (I believe in adjusted OPS+ measurements a hit is considered 1.6x as good as a walk).

OBP has been shown to be the measure linked the closest to runs scored, which is the point of the offensive game. So, while its not perfect, its the best measure we have and far better than BA.

ISiddiqui has heard the voice of God. And it was good.

With the Yankees no longer interested in Lowe thanks to Burnett (still laughing), apparently the Mets are considered the leader for his services. He's another guy I would be okay with for a few years. Apparently making a move for Saito too now that he was non-tendered.

Good old Murray Chass...

Murray Chass On Baseball » Morris is the Man


I quote that part of the article not because its another idiotic statement by a member of the BWAA (although that's part of it), but because in that same article he says Mussina shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

:D

Ya, it's probably the best. I'm not really arguing that as much as I'm playing devil's advocate - but isn't batting AVG a more reliable future predictor of a player's performance than OBP? A walk is largely the result of a pitcher screwing up. Getting a hit is more the result of the batter doing something good. Or maybe that's accounted into the 1.6x of OPS+. If a guy walks 4 times in a game - there's a chance ZERO of that was his skill. The pitchers might have just been awful. A 4 hit day, while not 100% the batter's skill, would seem to be a much greater accomplishment, and proof of talent in a way that walks just aren't.

If the sample size is large enough past OBP is very predictive.

I hope so but I dunno. I don't think he'll be Pavano 2.0. Pavano had a couple of above average years sprinkled in with a lot of below average before the career year that got him a contract. Burnett has been consistently above average but nothing more.

I'm surprised they haven't gone harder after Lowe. I thought he'd be perfect except he might be this offseason's Jason Schmidt, what with the about to fall off a cliff and all. That one caught me off guard, I'll admit.

SI

In addition to what JPhillips said:


A hit can also be the result of the pitcher screwing up ;). There are some players that will get walks were other players will swing at stuff out of the strike zone.

And a large portion of batting average comes down to luck. Batting average is a terrible stat to predict future success because of the giant fluctuations it can have from year to year. There's a reason a typical BABIP for a player is in the .300 range. 30% of the time you put the ball in play you're going to simply put it where the defense isn't and there's guys that get that number up close to .400 each year based on luck.

OBP carries over very well from year to year when you pull batting average out of the equation.


There's also a 100% chance that its a small sample size.


If I had never watched two players before and I saw one guy get 4 singles, another guy get 4 walks, and I was absolutely forced to pick one on what I saw I'd take the guy that walked 4 times.

I wish the stats-guys and the five-tools guys can just hug it out already.

I mean, isn't it clear that baseball success really involves both quantifiable and qualitative variables?

You gotta figure out a way to charge $13 a month for that sort of analysis :).

For players that don't have enough stats to matter, maybe, but once a player has enough stats his performance can be predicted ith relative accuracy. There will always be players that greatly over or under perform their predictions, but on the whole the results are far more accurate than basing a prediction on tools.

If you don't believe me ask Jim Bowden. I believe he currently has two dozen toolsy outfielders and none of them can hit.

Just because you can walk doesn't mean you can hit either. For examples, see Burroughs, Sean, Bellhorn, Mark and Swisher, Nick.

Of course, but I'd think we can agree that poor average + high walk rate is greater than poor hitting and poor walk rate.

Branyan, Russell. A traditional guy's nightmare.

Philadelphia re-signs Jaime Moyer for 2-years, 16 million. Chan-Blows-Park has signed a 1-year deal as well.

With getting Ibanez and Moyer signed, looks like the Phils off-season re-tooling is complete before Christmas. I think Philly might look to sign another reliever specialist, but it will be a fly under the radar type of pickup.

from today's Tom Taylor newsletter (available through Radio-Info.com)

Charlie Steiner switches from the TV booth to the radio microphone for the Los Angeles Dodgers, raising the “who succeeds Vin Scully?” question. Charlie has been calling the 40-or-so televised games played east of the Rockies, because the 81-year-old Scully doesn’t travel that far. But now Charlie's back to his radio roots, doing PBP for all 162 games on the radio. The L.A. Times carries this quote: “God’s honest truth, I love baseball, I love radio, I love baseball on the radio. My ego is not that big that I have to be on television.” He’ll pair up with Rick Monday, and former Dodgers pitcher-turned-broadcaster Jerry Reuss is out of the broadcasting rotation. Steiner was asked how long Scully will carry on and says “I think it will be, give or take, roughly…forever.”

and

Darrin Jackson, like Charlie Steiner at the Dodgers, is also returning to radio from the tube – in Darrin’s case, for the Chicago White Sox. Darrin’s been doing TV work for the past nine years, and for 2009 he’ll be the radio analyst, alongside Ed Farmer.

Well, that definitely sews up the award for "worst offseason" out there.

SI

I dunno, they still have more pitching than the Braves, who've managed to accomplish nothing positive so far this off-season.

I would consider losing the AJ Burnett sweepstakes a positive, but that's just me...

Still, 0 is better than a net negative. They signed someone worse than they let walk for about the same if not more money than he will get. Then the signed a 46 year old pitcher to a 2 year contract worth $16M. Oh, and they signed Chan Ho Park, who everyone knows that he blows. I mean, just look on FOFC ;)

I mean, Moyer's oldest kid could be past his arbitration years if Moyer had gotten started on kids earlier (apparently he has 7 kids but his oldest is only 17).

SI

To paraphrase from several Mets members on the board;

Call me when Kyle Farnsworth (or the Royals for the matter) actually win something before you criticize the defending World Champs.

:)

Hey, I'm glad it took us out of the running for worst offseason so far. A couple of bad low dollar contracts hurt, particularly in our spending bracket, but those deals are much worse. Not to say we couldn't do anything really stupid like deal Greinke for a bag of baseballs or extend Jose Guillen's contract, but for now we've got to go on what we've got.

And there are some different circumstances surrounding KC and Philly, most of which have to do with a bunch of money. So let's not pretend that's not an issue. But, c'mon, you should still be celebrating and not worrying about next year. Hell, we figured you guys were so good we poached your best front office guy last month.

SI

Hey, if Royals want the trophy for best off-season, then so be it.

I have no complaints.

Don't forget, royals fans have the draft to get geeked up for each summer as well.

Re: the Yankees going after Teixeira, don't they already have 1B/DH covered? Giambi's gone, but Damon and Posada might have to play there a significant amount and Swisher's there too.

I'm assuming its a move to either block the Red Sox or drive up the price for him more than filling a need.

Teixeria > Swisher

I'm as confused as I am about the sentiment that the Red Sox don't need Teixeria.

Undoubtedly. I was just responding to this tri-dola by pointing out the Yankees don't really have a big 1B hole - they're going to need to move/play current players over there anyways.I'm ambivalent about this deal - Teixeira's a great hitter, and would clearly improve us, but I'd rather win with home grown players than free agents, and this would almost guarantee Lars Anderson being traded (for a catcher?) as well as Lowell or Ortiz.

(Oh, btw absent the thread, I hope your friends/family from Fitchburg are doing okay - that whole part of the state is a mess right now, in a literal line about 5 minutes west and north of Concord - places like Shirley and Chelmsford were hit, but we had almost no damage. No power in most places and trees blocking many of the roads. You couldn't even take Rt. 2 out to Amherst for a couple days.)

Sources are saying that Furcal is going back to Atlanta. Makes me wonder what the plans for Escobar are?

Useful piece for Peavy?

The Braves have never lost the NL East with Rafael Furcal on the team. Hopefully this signing means some kind of trade is coming.

edit: Watching ESPN just now, Buster Olney says Furcal is having last minute negotiations with the Dodgers. :/

... and Olney just reported to SportsCenter that the Dodgers have come back in strong.

That's the only way signing Furcal makes any sense at all. Unless of course we enjoy having the entire left side of our infield miss half or more of the season with injuries.

Would that be the Furcal who hadn't played in fewer than 138 games since 2001 until he got hurt this past season, or are you talking out of your ass again, Jon? :)

No, that would be the Furcal who missed time with ankle issues in 07 and virtually all of 08 to injury, and is now 31 years old instead of in his 20's.

I wouldn't have given $1 mil/yr for his lower-career-OBP-than-Kelly-Johnson-ass before he turned into a cripple. He's a head case who spends weeks at a time thinking he's Babe Ruth, sub-par defensively and only a f'n moron like Wren appears to have turned out to be would do so now.

I fully expect him to engineer a blockbuster trade for Andruw next.

Ok I'll bite. Lowell and Ortiz will play their last game with the Sox well before Texeira's contract ends. Why couldn't you just keep Ortiz until Anderson is more than ready? And since when is 7-8 homegrown guys not enough?

This guarantees nothing with Lars. Lars is Papi's replacement.

We could keep Anderson around until Ortiz's contract expires, but that's not until after 2010, and I believe Anderson will be ready to start 2010. He would still be fairly young, but I'm not a fan of leaving MLB ready players in the minors (and with top prospects the Red Sox aren't either.) And I'm also not a fan of consigning someone to DH when they aren't a terrible fielder.

As for having "enough" home-grown players I'm not saying we're the Yankees of 2000-present, but all things being equal I'd rather not sign free agents, and I have enough concerns about whether Teixeira will be worth 20m+ a season in 4 years, let alone 8, that I'm not pushing for the deal. But like I said, I'm not against the deal, nor for it - I'm ambivalent. (I also wonder why teams are going crazy in 8/160 territory for Teixeira while Adam Dunn is sitting there, probably available for 3/36 or something - well I don't really wonder because GM's hate Adam Dunn, but it's still odd.)

In 2010, Lars will not be an everyday player. If anything, he will get the '04-Youk treatment then. He's only gotten 100-odd ABs at AA so far.

You're almost certainly correct about what he will be if he's still in the Red Sox organization. Whether he could handle more is a different debate (and one not really worth having until we see how he hits next year.) But AA to the Majors isn't a much bigger jump than AAA-Majors, and a number of players have done it in recent years (Hanley being the most prominent position player, but the list of pitchers is pretty long.)

He played in 138 games in 2007.
Played in 159 and 154 in 2006 and 2005, respectively.
143, 156 and 154 going back through 2002.

I'm sorry. Did I miss something? Did Emperor Selig lengthen the season to 300 games without telling anybody? He missed virtually all of last year, that's true, but I fail to see where one season in the last seven constitutes sufficient sample size to make a comment like that.


Hey, Dodger fans would cheerfully send Andruw home. We'll even pack his bags for you.

Thanks man....My parents, now living in nearby Gardner, were without power between Thursday and Tuesday. But they got through it OK with a fireplace and some helpful neighbors bringing by hot water every day for coffee. I think my father would actually be happier without electricity permanently.

Whew.

Furcal back to the Dodgers after some shady dealings by his agent. Frank Wren pretty much struggling to keep a civil tongue about it all when talking to local media tonight. (edit to add) On Monday night, according to the source, Kinzer asked Wren to fax him a signed term sheet containing the Braves’ offer – three years, $30 million with a fourth-year vesting option. Wren complied on Tuesday morning. The Braves then believed they had a deal. No member of the Braves’ front office – not Wren, not longtime former GM John Schuerholz – could recall a time when a signed term sheet was not the equivalent of a handshake agreement, ethically – if not legally – binding. Instead, the Braves believe, Kinzer shopped the term sheet to the Dodgers. ... “When people deal with you in this manner, they lose credibility,” Braves GM Frank Wren said Wednesday. “You don’t forget these things."

I'm relieved to have dodged this bullet, although if somebody plants one right between Furcal's shoulder blades on his first trip to Atlanta I can understand why.

Worth noting in all this is that Escobar might as well pack his bags. Three guesses who the young star recently signed as an agent? Braves history says he's likely to be packaged sooner rather than later for something, as they are not prone to forgive & forget on things like this.

Yeah, shades of J.D. Drew a couple years ago. Not cool.


Depends on how universal your viewpoint of Furcal is in Georgia, huh? If "whew" is the prevailing sentiment, is the principle of the thing more important than dodging the bullet? :)


Well, from context with the Furcal negotiations in the first place, it didn't seem like the Braves were real keen on giving him the job. The issue with the agent just might be the catalyst to get him out of Atlanta sooner rather than later.