Looking more and more like something was put in the water in Indiana.

GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory.

CNN reporting independents in Georgia swung 20 points from +9 in 2020 for Biden to +11 for Trump. If that is the case she is cooked. Call it now.

I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not ...

I'm not seeing that. Georgia votes are actually looking ok right now, but still very early.

Maybe a different source? What are you using to track?

SOS website, and professional analyst from people who know the state. Like so:



Independents swung toward Trump bigly.

There are also a number of red counties showing Trump slipping 1-5%.

I'm not concerned about exit polls. For the most part the ear;y exits are usually off.

I just got a very bad feeling...

Yes, this is what ABC just drilled down to. Harris running ahead of Biden in a few counties. Early, but hopeful there.

There are a number of counties with a red shift in Georgia also. It looks unclear to me :confused:

woopwoop

Can you point them out? I'm seeing red counties running under Trumps counts in 2020. I haven't seen a red swing anywhere yet.

by 20 points?

Miami Dade numbers are eye-popping.

As far as GA, nearly all the counties reporting votes on that WaPo map have shifted even further red.

On the WaPo map, GA looks like it's getting hit with a bnuch of tornadoes.

According to the Post site Rainmaker linked there's at least like 15 of them. Some that seem possibly significant:

- Taylor (+45 Trump, +27 in '20)
- Decatur (+29 Trump, +17 in '20)
- Randolph (-1 Trump, -9 in '20)
- Lanier (+50 Trump, +42 in '20)
- McDuffie (+34 Trump, +19 in '20)

and similar.

My sense is Georgia is running a little bit toward Harris when using the polls as a basis. I'm seeing about 6,000 total less Trump votes from the counties reporting more than 50% turnout than I had expected.

If that trend continues, Georgia goes down to the wire.

Early, though, and no idea what remains to be counted from the counties reporting a significant number of votes.

The main pattern I see is likely even worse polarization than in '20. Red areas getting more red, blue areas getting more blue. That's something we don't need.

There isn't one speck of blue on the FL WaPo map yet. Not even for Harris to gain a point in a 60% Trump county. Even Leon County, the only blue county in the panhandle, is running 5 points behind Biden's pace (still will be blue but ... sheesh).

Oh, Florida is long gone. (Some have joked that the state is becoming a “red heat sink”, which, fine by me.)

Ohio is the opposite. Appears to be blue-shifting similar to Indiana. It would have to be an awfully big shift for it to be competitive though ...

Every conservative from Ohio moves to South Carolina or Florida once they have kids. Pretty sure there's more Buckeye fans in SC than Gamecock fans.

Mark Robinson has lost his governor race. Hard hit to all the Black Nazis out there.

In counties that have gotten all votes counted or close, he's running much better than in 2020. Those Liz Cheney voters didn't pan out in the rural areas it seems. Who'd have thought?

John Kerry agrees.

She never would. Her appeal is in the suburban Republican circle.

PredictIt up to .65 for Trump

About that.




Theory they mentioned on TV is that hard right leaning MAGA folks are flocking to Florida potentially making other states more competitve as the red votes move out and into a singular state like Florida.

Electoral College math

Robinhood at .67 for Trump.

Feels a lot like 2016

He's pulling away in Georgia

Maybe my call of Harris EV win and Trump popular vote win will come to fruition. The funiest possible outcome.

The Panic Is Strong With You.

I'm not there yet. I think there are good and bad signs.

If you discount the 8M illegals who regularly vote against Trump in CA, he should be president of the moon!

Holy shit he's going to win Miami-Dade :lol:

Yeah, FL is insane,

+18.

She's cooked

Maybe Loudon was an error.

Loudoun County seems to be a data error - it went down to 96% reported after it showed 99% reported in WaPo. It seems like in NovA EV votes also come last and they usually report late, so most likely the reported figure is a data error

— Libnex (@Libnex_) November 6, 2024

I saw somebody say that was likely.

Anybody have a link or source to turnout comparisons?

Ohio blue-shift continues. 37% in, Harris is up by 45k (51-49%). Just sayin'.

Heard people say if there was a blue shift in Iowa, then there would be one in Ohio. May be a sign?

Feels like the rust belt and NC will be where she needs to win. GA not looking to hot

The one maybe bright spot for you in Georgia is that it seems like the early voting is not skewed heavily blue like it was in the past. Seems like election day vote is much bluer.

While I don't count it as a harbinger of the overall, I am most definitely pleased to see Miami-Dade avoiding regression.

I was really quite concerned about that.

And so far only one percent reporting from Gwinnett and Dekalb. Big shift once they report.

Seems like it might be tough to compare 2020 to 2024 until counties have fully reported. Republicans seem to be voting early more now and Democrats may not be using VBM as much. COVID sort of made everything weird.

Trump just jumped ahead in North Carolina.

It is all unravelling.

Virginia is my favorite 'fake news' state. Looks close at first, then banks left.

Big chunk of urban Harris vote just added in Georgia, cut Trump's lead in half, still over a third of the vote outstanding.

The Mitten is about to close. Harris needs you, Michigan. Don't do something stupid.

Looks like the bigger redder counties in Georgia are not shifting that much pro-Trump as the final totals hit, but the turn out is higher. If the blue counties match the turn out increases with some percentage increases, Harris can win. It looks like it will be less than one percent one way are another.

Polymarket has jumped from 57 to 73 cents for Trump in the last hour. I think it was being manipulated some before tonight, not sure if tonight is a really bad sign or a really good arbitrage opportunity if you still think it's closer to 50/50

Ohio Trump is +5, 150k margin and steadily climbing. Looks like a mild blue shift, false hope there.

A lot of people skipped the Presodential race and just voted in downballot ones.

Really doesn't look to me like the Selzer Shift happened. It's back to hoping for a close win that doesn't open the door to stupid amounts of legit controversy.

I don't know how up to date it is, but the WaPo map is showing Fulton County R+3 over 2020 with 70% reported.

I think palling around with Cheney was their only strategically questionable move, not sure who that's supposed to appeal to in 2024 and it alienates the sort of turnout you need.

But until she loses a state Biden won 2020, the alarm shouldn't start.

Early numbers from Michigan show a significant red shift in SE Michigan. That would be bad.

I haven't seen any significant bad news out of Pennsylvania.

I think historically the early numbers come in early and the blue big counties come later, the real risk here is the media wanting to call it early shades of 2000 and try to make it seem like cheating when she closes the gap. There's no chance he's making up Biden's margin from 2020 in the popular vote.

Virginia is becoming troubling

When you sort The NY Times map by “shift from 2020” it’s basically all red across the entire map.

Like another poster said earlier. Feels a lot like 2016

Market futures have crept up from about .05 to now .28.

Nothing too earth shattering but another data point that markets is thinking Trump is going to win it.

It's a pretty big one but we shall see.

Also Biden and blue MAGA will deserve blame for not allowing a competitive primary when everyone knew his brain was mush.

.73 on PI now.

👀 CBS News Exit Poll in Michigan per our polling team: “younger voters (age 18-29) are narrowly going for Trump right now…This deficit for Harris is in large part to younger men in Michigan who are more for Trump.”

— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) November 6, 2024

Yeah still super-early in Michigan but there's a lot more bad news than good right now. Nothing in from Detroit so far though. If she manages to run up huge numbers there ...

It was around this time in the 2020 thread where people were panicking and then it started turning for Biden. If history could just go ahead and rhyme, that's be great.

Democrats ran a black man and it caused half the country to lose their shit. They then ran a white woman and even more lost their shit. Now Democrats ran a black woman, we should have known how it would have turned out.

Well that black man did win by large margins twice. Just sayin'.

She’s going to need to sweep PA, WI and MI

That has always been the path anyway

The black man didn't run as a Republican like the women. He also wouldn't have campaigned with Liz fucking Cheney.

CNN just reported an election official in GA said there are around 1.5M votes still outstanding, if I heard correctly.

Shameful that Trump's going to thank the Russians' bomb threats by giving them Ukraine.

Gwinnett is the highest population in the state, and only has 16% in.

DecisionDesk had Harris down to 15% in GA at one point, but she's back up to 35%

PA Exits: Trump +7 advantage among those who believe Democracy in the U.S. is threatened. https://t.co/5O3MQCJibN pic.twitter.com/2DSCQDQzBw

— Erik Telford (@ErikTelford) November 6, 2024

Similar story in Virginia. A lot of urban areas to go; looks like it'll be closer than '20 but Harris should hang on to it.

Kari Lake has lost again.

@Rainmaker that may be the most insane thing I've ever seen.

You think democracy is in trouble and you vote for Trump? I mean, deserve what you get if that's how it goes down. I'd expect Harris to win those people by 20 but lose bad on the economy.

What they mean is they are worried the democrats will steal another election. Has to be people answering with that in mind

100% agree. What about Harris has shown that she is a threat to Democracy?

I can see disagreeing with her policy but this stat is mind boggling.

NC looks like a clean sweep for the D's in Governor/Lt. Gov/SecState/AG, that's not great news for Harris if she's underperforming all of them not just the one running against Mark Robinson. Charlotte still has a lot of votes left but those would be really surprising margins for the latter 3 if a Dem shift comes in enough for Kamala to win it.

Potential problems in Wisconsin, Dane County (Madison) not going as well as '20, and the same rural redshift as we've seen elsewhere.

She toured the country with the daughter of the guy who helped steal the 2000 election.

I don't think things are as dire for Harris as some of you think but I can't stress how fucking stupid the decision to cater to the most unpopular politicians in the country was. Especially politicians that made her not seem serious about the issues she was running on.

Ugh, NBC says Trump has won Ohio. I'm going to take a big drink.

Fuck you my fellow Buckeye voters.

We're going to spiral into authoritarian rule, pull out of NATO, and become an isolationist nation because eggs are .50 more expensive.

I didn't vote for him.

This is looking like 2020. The numbers in the counties shifted, but the outcome is going to be right there.



Democracy and Economy seem to be the 2 top issues, and when you figure in that GOPers are a decent chunk of the "Democracy" issue voters and you'd expect the Economy issue to break strongly against Harris, that's a tough 1-2 punch.

Good info GrantDawg, thanks.

To me it looks right now that Harris wins Pennsylvania and Virginia (PA is close now in the numbers, but the cities should put her over the top), Michigan will be closer than expected, and if current trends hold she's in trouble in Wisconsin.

Potentially Georgia, Michigan, and who knows where else (Arizona likes not reporting results for half of forever). Right now it looks to me like we don't know the winner tonight.

Her rural numbers in Georgia aren't that bad. It's basically what Warnock saw. Difference is Warnock did much better with the base which isn't surprising considering he campaigned for their vote.

Her numbers are up 5-7% in the suburbs.

Not sure how to interpret below but assume, although Democracy is important issue for the GOP, it is really the economy as THE main deciding issue.

Exit polls: US voters name democracy and economy as top issues

Warnock was up more. He cleaned up in the burbs.