Well Sunday is football. Saturday? No one is home, is the thought. Friday night?

McCain is coming off defensive and is trying to take the shine off Obama's apple by turning him into a regular ol' Democrat.

Seems Barry isn't gonna have it. I think it's an even debate, but Obama is coming off really strong thus far.

Seems McCain watched a lot of the Hillary debate and realizes how important it is to get the last word in.

Is he wooing the base tonight, McCain is? Who is he talking to?

I want to strangle politicians when they sit there with the snarky smartass smile on their face while the other one is speaking. It's not endearing.

Tonight McCain is dominating that category.

Miss Congeniality in the Senate? Wow. Debate Prep much, John?

"Six years ago (when I was in the Illinois senate) I stood up and opposed this war."

Twice...

Now I see why McCain wanted such low expectations... he's playing into Obama's hands, as the McCain Temper comes to the fore..

I'm sure some will disagree, but as someone who isn't voting for either candidate, I agree...this thing isn't even a contest. McCain isn't coming off well at all and I doubt he'll convert anyone who wasn't already going to vote for him. I doubt Obama does either, but...he certainly has stepped his game up. At best, McCain is coming off sloppy and uninspiring, much less presidential.

The way he says Pakistan is gonna make someone think that he's related to those Muslims over there.

The way they keep pronouncing it makes me think of South Park and the "no Towlie ban" :D

SI

The long they stay on military stuff, the more likely that McCain is on his home turf. I don't know if it'll stick, because I'm not sure how much anyone who keeps hearing about the bailout really cares, other than "bring our kids home."

shrug.

This is boring. Seriously - make it no holds barred.

There's always a failed state in Pakistan! It has been so for 40 years!

This is the problem with the 4 minutes to reply, then 5 minutes free form.. instead of debates, you have the candidates talking over each other to get their soundbites out

Is McCain the change candidate? Or the experience candidate? He's following the Clinton playbook against Obama, because I guess they figure it worked. But McCain isn't Hillary and Obama has learned a bit since then.

Not sure about the "I also have a bracelet" line and idea...

SI

In a way, it's a completely awesome burn.. that Obama knew that McCain was going to do that line, and countered it.. but yeah, risky on both sides

I don't think what resonates in the right wing blogosphere is gonna pull people to McCain's side.

But if he keeps saying it over and over again, maybe something he says about Obama "not understanding" will stick.

Is what I'm reading true, that McCain is proposing a UN volume 2, with just democracies?

Stumbling through Ahmadinejad and Peristroika didn't help McCain, especially with Obama's little patronizing "that's ok".

SI

Random question, but can anyone recommend any good conservative (US) blogs for my RSS feed? I have Coulter for comedy and Frum, and Sullivan who was supposed to be conservative but we know how that turned out. Anyone out there who's toughtful and posts fairly frequently?

For some of these, McCain is like a newswriter that keeps trying to write long, fluffy leads and won't put the who, what, when, where and why right up front. He goes into abstract territory and likes to resolve a long list of ideas with the gist of the concept, which seems like a really poor debate strategy. Throw in the bitter/temper stuff, and I think it has been a poor showing for him. He does much better when directly responding to something Obama has said, in my opinion.

I bet Obama was saying the name mentally over and over again to make sure he didn't screw up the name

American Conservative Blog (I went to college and was active in a conservative student org with one of the bloggers here is the associate editor at AmCon) Their take is usually not as party line as the rest.
The Next Right
Red State
http://www.powerlineblog.com/
http://www.moonbattery.com/

David Frum is interesting, but he has issues in the sense that he actually admits there are things wrong with the Right. I also like Ross Douhat over at The Atlantic (a great site in general).

Here's Reason's blog too. Libertarian, to be sure, but far more to the right than to the left.

Hit & Run - Reason Magazine

Dan Drezner is a good read.

Way to go off wool-gathering, McCain.. he got asked about 9/11 and if we're safer, and he spent his time resorting to a campaign speech about being a MAVERICK... but then wrapped it up with one sentence 'So we're safer, but not SAFE yet"

On Intrade, immediately before the debate, it was Obama +12 (or so)... now it's Obama +7.

McCain accusing Obama of being too much like Bush??? Are we living in Bizarro World???

I had similar thoughts when they talked about Parkistan. I swore they took the positions of their political opposite.

That was weird. I thought for a minute that Obama was going to call McCain a pussy.

Well, the feeling that I have right now, is that this was pretty much a 10-10 round in boxing, neither side really landed any real telling blows.. and this was McCain's home ground

Yeah, I saw it as a pretty dull draw. I should have stayed with the football game.

My thoughts:

I thought the setup with the 2-2-5 was terrible. You ended up getting less info and it seemed uncomfortable, which is a shame.

I thought McCain did a very good job tonight.

I thought that Obama did well and he did take a risk with the bracelet line.

Perhaps, due to the low expectations (sorry Mizzou you were so wrong here) I was surprised by McCain and one could argue that his upside was bigger and I think therefore he wouldve won tonight.

So even if it was a draw, that means McCain did better than Obama.


some negatives:

If anything Obama was too polite allowing McCain to get the last word or leave a "John, that's not true moment" unclarified.

John needed desperately to make eye contact with Obama. It didnt speak well of respect for your opponent HOWEVER if this isnt pointed out by pundits Im not sure the laymen will see it as a big deal. Oh his saying that Kennedy was in the hospital when he was actually released from it already and on his way home was a slight mishap of information...not his fault but left me kind of thinking something was amiss there.

and:

Im not sure anyone wouldve been swayed by tonight but I definitely will se how Hawkish people will love McCain and Doves will like Obama.

For me......


I think McCain wins tonight. Now let me go to FactCheck.org and start deducting points for lying. that could sway the decision on the Flasch winner dramatically.

+1

+2

Draw goes to Obama I would think. He showed he can hold his own on Foreign Policy against a guy who should have mopped the floor with him on this issue.

point by analysts on CNN though - if this was supposed to be McCain's strongest topics where he is clearly better than McCain, if he can only manage a 10-10 draw isn't that a loss? Tie-goes-to-the-runner type of thing...

DaddyTorgo (10:53:44 PM): good point on cnn here
DaddyTorgo (10:53:50 PM): by this lady (gloria berger?)

DaddyTorgo (10:54:06 PM): that obama attacked mccain on policy and tied him to bush and their independent focus group was okay with that
DaddyTorgo (10:54:25 PM): but mccain's attacks on obama were more "you don't understand" and condescending, and their focus group of independents reacted negatively to that

I think Obama played defensively waaay too much. McCain was more on offense. Obama could have hammered McCain a few times if he wanted to, but mostly out of Obama, you heard a lot of "John/Senator McCain is right" while McCain said a lot of "Senator Obama just doesn't understand", etc.

It made Obama look like he was following along. Based on policies, it was even, but on how they conducted themselves, McCain gets a slight victory.

And a majority of people thought Obama was going to win because of his eloquence on stump speeches (according to polling)... the expectations bar tends to be pretty big sometimes in these debates.

no, McCain, due to expectations needed to make up a lot of that to earn, what you call a draw, and I think he may have won, so he gained more ground than Obama extended...so no, McCain Won IMO tonight.

OH BUT IM BIASED. SO I take it all back!!!

I agree with you that McCain took more steps forward, but he also took more steps backward (the constant condescending "You just don't understand, Barack", the butchering of names, etcetera)

Why don't reporters just boycott the spin room? Nothing of any interest comes out of interviews with people who are paid to promote their candidate.

did mccain's advisor just call mccain a once-in-a-lifetime political communicator? or did i mishear that?

edit: yeah i misheard apparently.

but yeah - the spin room is pretty much BS and partisan

I'm not sure the "you don't understand" is going to hurt him that much. Some people may not like it, but others may see it as Obama not having the same experience.

people are going to see it the way they wanted to to begin with, Im not sure the debates tonight will sway anyone.

I agree this was pretty even, but not iwthout some wins and losses.

Obama Win:
The big score for Obama was the economy and suggesting 95% of Americans will get money from him if he's elected in the form of tax breaks.

McCain Win:
The big score for McCain was foreign policy and the discussion about "No preconditions w/ rogue leaders". He definately won there.

Obama Loss:
The "Great Orator", Obama came off as very dull and defensive and not like what I imagine him to be like at all. Snapping out "That's not true" made him sound like a 3rd grader.

McCain Loss:
McCain came off as awkwardly aggressive, stumbling over verbage and saying some weird shit like "When I was let out of prison" or "I put some folks into prison" that didn't come off right at all.

But most of the debate was very respectful and interesting enough for me to watch until the end. Although, as I throw my support to the Republicans, I did go and make my PB&J sandwich while Obama was talking...but it only took me a minute.

The people who'd see it as that, are the ones already inclined to vote for McCain. For an example of it, look at what DT referenced on the CNN.com focus group of independents (the people that McCain needs to win).. they felt it was an attack and condescending

great spin by Biden here

and is it just me, or is a spending freeze fiscally IRRESPONSIBLE and not responsible. The solution to a problem isn't "let's freeze and do nothing." The solution is "let's look at what we have when we get there and see what we can do with and do without."

The CNN focus group isn't statistically significant ;). We'll have to wait a few days and see how it played.

Agreed. I'm just saying that the first view of it isn't exactly favorable. (although if I was the Democrats, I would get that view out there)

They must have good food there ;)

SI

The Freeze actually literally scared the shit out of me. When you say "Freeze" what exactly do you mean?

The debate format sucks. I was hopeful to see them go at each other, but Barack was reluctant and McCain had zero interest in talking directly. If they won't debate with each other, just go back to the regular moderator format.

He made it sound like basically nothing would be funded, which is fucking scary, I admit.

+1

I would love to hear what some federal employee's think of this comment and the comment regarding fixed contracts.

All a spending freeze means is that the budget won't go UP. It'll be kept at current levels for another year.

McCain's temper showed early in the debate when Jim tried to get Obama to talk directly to McCain and McCain snapped, half-jokingly, "What, you don't think I heard him the first time?" It was actually pretty funny.

Can you please link to something that says that? Is that simply your interpretation?

Fair enough, Flasch.. it's only OUR interpertation that it means something different... Let's not automatically assume the worst.

Obama won this debate.

Partisan voters, yes. But there's an argument to be made that Obama responded to McCain's claims that he didn't understand by demonstrating that, in fact, he does have a strong grasp on foreign policy issues. So while McCain kept claiming Obama didn't understand, I suspect quite a few undecided voters will perceive that Obama in fact demonstrated plenty of understanding, and rather than not understanding, simply differed in views with McCain.

But what the hell do I know, I'm partisan.

Interesting, Vic.. why do you say that? I expected just the opposite, which I know.. is bad to assume.. but *shrug*

Temper? Sounded like he was just mocking the dumbass format.

Anyway, the only poll I could find in a very quick scan was on MSNBC's web site, with 49% saying Obama won, and 36% saying McCain won. Interested to hear about other votes out there.

good point, Foz. thanks Ace for the link which BTW says that under Bush's proposed Freeze spending would only go up by less than 1%. Okey dokey. Is that McCain's definition?

I agree. I assumed he meant a freeze on increases and inflationary adjustments.

Polls are going to not be very useful, at least internet polls. Considering both sides (Freepers and the KosKids) actively try to stuff the polls.. (not to mention the Freepers trying to anti-freep (meaning actively trying to discredit the results by making the results unreliable if it's not going the way they want). I'd wait till morning or the day after when the RV/LV polls come out.

Well, I work for the government and whenever "freeze" has come up that means a halt, and spending freeze indicates a halt to increased spending. What, you really think McCain is going to send millions of federal employees home without pay?

That's the way the term has been used:

Washington Times - Bush to propose spending freeze


OMB chief doesn't rule out domestic spending freeze (2/5/04) -- www.GovernmentExecutive.com

Thank you and that makes me feel much better. I wasn't on the up n up of what the definition of a 'freeze' was.

They both had their canned responses, but McCain seemed to be mired in nostalgia, several times harkening back to the early 1980's. That's not going to win over any undecided voters, which is what McCain needed to do.

Also, I think that Obama did a much better job of being forceful with his responses, instead of stumbling and parsing his words (like he has frequently done in the past).

Overall, I think that Obama did what he needed to do -- provide a certain comfort level to the 10-15% of the undecided voters who haven't yet made up their mind. It's similar to what Reagan did against Carter in the 1980 debate.

That's an interesting viewpoint, and I did see several places mention how McCain seemed to bring up Reagan and the 80's constantly.

ooooh crap, I hope thats not true. Eisenhower's second letter never mentioned resigning which McCain said it did as a pivotal point of his story about accountability.

Perhaps my favorite moment of the whole night was when Lehrer revealed that the Republican VP candidate "declined" to come on afterward and field a few softballs as Biden did.

Regardless of your political persuasion, I have to say those are two skilled debaters. Sure, they had plenty of canned responses and buzz words, but they're both quick on their feet and never really seemed at a loss.

I kept turning to the wife and saying that Biden is going to chew Palin up and shit her out on live TV. She was probably vomitous watching these two go at it and picturing herself in that very arena next week.

With the caveat the numbers are not quite final yet, the first phone poll is out:

Poll Results Suggest More Uncommitted Voters Saw Obama As Debate Winner - Horserace

CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

Thirty-nine percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-five percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-six percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight. Thirty-one percent said their opinion of McCain got better.

Sixty-six percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-four percent think McCain would.

Forty-eight percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-eight percent think McCain would.

The Iraq numbers are very interesting considering the rest of the numbers. You think they liked Obama's economics stuff better then?

Weird. I love me some liberal Kool-Aid but I thought it was a draw and that Obama might not have seemed tough enough to independents. Maybe the nice guy, cerebral style plays better with people than I thought.

And now, for something completely biased, er.. different.

Drudge: McCain won 68%, Obama won 30%, Neither 2%

Insider Advantage: Obama won 42%, McCain won 41%, Undecided: 17%

CNN: Obama won 51%, McCain 38%

wow - i so want to make some smarmy comment about the drudge #'s

must...bite...tongue

Concerning Obama's comments about Kissinger -


The Weekly Standard

I think McCain got well under Obama's skin early on and Obama played defense all night. Half of Obama's statements began with "I agree with Sen McCain". McCain pretty much undressed Obama on nearly every foreign policy decision (Surge, Russia, meeting with Iran, threatening Pakistan). Meanwhile, all Obama did was keep going back to why Iraq was a mistake. I think that helps Obama a bit at first, but it doesn't answer all these other issues. He still never really addressed the issue of what conditions he would use to leave Iraq and left it as "we'll leave in 16 months no matter what".

Obama did real well early on the economy (middle class tax cuts), but once the Iran discussion started, McCain just took over and Obama just tried to block punches from that point on.

Don't know what the poll response will be, but I can't imagine the last 45 minutes going any better for McCain. Obama saying he will sit with Iran's Pres, threaten Pakistan, leave Iraq in 16 months no matter what and his stance on Russia.

Still, I don't know that it will make much of a difference this early. But, I don't think Obama made anyone worried about his handling foreign policy feel any better. Again, with the economy the way it is, foreign policy might not be that important so Obama may win anyway. My impression is that McCain helped himself tonight by not allowing people worried about Obama's foreign policy to "feel more comfortable with him".

That's ok, I did it for you :)

Or how about this proposed poll:

"If the CERN Large Hadron Collider creates a blackhole and swallows the Earth, whose fault is it?"

Results:

Republicans: 1%
Scientists at CERN:19%
Democrats: 80%


Of course it's a fake poll, and I'm kidding, if I was serious, the Democrats would have pulled 85% ;)

hahaha - that's hardly as harsh as what i'd say.


eh - i had something else to say but fozzie convinced me to edit it out to be nice

All that said, I think Obama will do very well in the next 2 debates and probably negate any "win on the scorecard" McCain may have gotten tonight.

I think it's a slight win for McCain just because anyone who felt like he had an experience advantage, especially in foreign policy walks away still feeling that way, and maybe a small percentage get swayed his way as well.

For Obama, I think it was well enough that he's not thought of any worse than when he came in.

But for someone who accuses McCain of being Bush III, he agreed a lot with McCain - and that seems to be getting most of the discussion so far.

I think that Obama held his own in an arena where McCain was supposed to wipe the floor with him. The next two debates will be even better debates for Obama because his knowledge base on domestic topics will equal, if not rival McCain's.

Post-partisanship. Country first.

I'm still standing by my prediction that Obama's final poll numbers will be about 2-3% above his actual number on Nov. 4th. However, it looks like he might have a significant lead in first two weeks in October, and if his lead is above 6% during that time then he's almost certainly going to win.

I took it as "I'm not really confident enough to stick my neck out and debate him on this, so I will agree and move on to something I feel more comfortable talking about".

The one thing that hurts McCain is that the areas he is the strongest on (Russia, Iran, surge, Pakistan, Earmarks, spending) are just not ones people really care about. I think Obama's focus on the middle class tax cut, helping working families and a plan on the economy resonated more with most people. Still, the reason I think McCain won tonight is that this was Obama's chance to show the undecideds that he knows foreign policy, has good judgment and will handle Iraq/Iran/Russia/Pakistan just as well as McCain. IMO, Obama didn't do that and I don't know that he will have another chance to do so before the election.

So, it just comes down to how important those issues are to voters and that's the big unknown right now.

My impression of "freeze" in government-speak was that it always included an increase across the board due to inflation/cost-of-living increases. To maintain current spending in pure dollars would be called a reduction.

I found myself watching the approval graph of the independents at the bottom of the CNN screen and mentally accumulating approval * time. On that basis it seemed that the two tied on the economy but Obama won it on the foreign policy stuff - particularly Iraq. Both the opposite of what you might expect.

Commited people tend to approve of the criticisms their candidate makes of the other but what was noticeable of the independents is that approval went down whenever one criticised the other and went up when one expressed agreement. McCain's "you don't understand" went down badly and Obama's "John McCain is right..." went down well.

Bearing in mind that it's independents that will decide this election now, then Obama takes this debate by a short head.

But the debate that will be really interesting is the foot-in-mouth Biden versus "You can see Russia from Alaska" Palin. I shall even put a six pack in the fridge stay up for that one :)

I think he may have used it to much, but he used it in an attempt to show that he is not exactly the opposite of McCain in every fashion, which may be attractive to some on the fence. There are some things they may slightly agree on at a high level, to which he acknowledge and then explained his feelings. He could of done it without acknowleding McCain as much as he did but it may have come across that he just stated the same thing McCain stated when McCain answered first. To me, it felt that he was not simply being argumentitive for the sake of it where they did share a common thought. It seemed like in a couple cases, there was a big "BUT" following the statements.

Just my .02 cents.

Quick Points on Debate I by Jay Nordlinger on National Review Online

Interesting take.

To further clarify, here are the reference to his text (may be more but this is what I could find on first glance). When reading them back, to me it doesn't come across as Obama being unconfident and wanting to move on. In some cases it was used to the contrary:

"Well, I think Senator McCain's absolutely right that we need more responsibility, but we need it not just when there's a crisis."

"Well, Senator McCain is absolutely right that the earmarks process has been abused, which is why I suspended any requests for my home state, whether it was for senior centers or what have you, until we cleaned it up."

"Now, John mentioned the fact that business taxes on paper are high in this country, and he's absolutely right. Here's the problem: There are so many loopholes that have been written into the tax code, oftentimes with support of Senator McCain, that we actually see our businesses pay effectively one of the lowest tax rates in the world."

"And, John, I -- you're absolutely right that presidents have to be prudent in what they say. But, you know, coming from you, who, you know, in the past has threatened extinction for North Korea and, you know, sung songs about bombing Iran, I don't know, you know, how credible that is."

"No, actually, I think Senator McCain and I agree for the most part on these issues. Obviously, I disagree with this notion that somehow we did not forcefully object to Russians going into Georgia."


He could have used a better selection of word in each case but in hind site it doesn't read like it sounds in sound bites of "I agree."

That's funny. I didn't even think of it in that context when I heard it.

I really do not know what will happen at that debate. Conventional wisdom suggests the Biden should dominate, but the expectations for Palin are now so low that she almost can not help but exceed them.

I am starting to agree with those that say for conservatives in general, the only reason to vote for McCain is to make sure Obama does not get elected.

waking up this morning it seems Im in the minority in thinking that McCain won. almost everyone on here and on the news thinks it was a draw at best for McCain and a win for Obama at worst. Strange thqat I saw it as a clear win for McCain but apparently the not looking Obama in the eye is egtting a lot of play.