It's always amazing how some of the opposition candidates in very safe districts are absolute train wrecks. If you want to run a hopeless campaign for the U.S. House, there's very little stopping you.

Not good news, I would have taken a bet 1-2 months ago that a second stimulus would happen. Playing chicken and it's almost too late to swerve.

What are both parties thinking? Trump has an opportunity to do more executive orders to help his image but don't see Congress looking good here for either party.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/12/polit...ion/index.html

Like everything else none of it will matter. People will blame the other side and wherever they consume their media from will confirm their bias.

I agree the hardcore are already set, but in an earlier post, there are about 5% undecideds to worry about.

It is no surprise that September won't see any action on the stimulus until the very end of the month. The original employer protections that expire on Oct 1 is the critical date here. Both sides are playing their advantage right now, and there's not a whole lot to play for until the end of the month. So it's going to be posturing and watching the economy. The D's are waiting on the fallout if nothing gets done, especially as layoff numbers start to climb heading into the election. The R's want something done right now, so it has the best chance to get in play and help the economy more prior to the election. It's not that the D's are trying to sink the economy, it's that they already approved a huge plan, offered to split the difference, and know that they can still say "we passed what you wanted, but you didn't want it", and the R's can gamble and see if the economy continues to improve on it's own. In that case, they may not need much of a plan, or no plan, and can take credit for saving trillions in spending and recovering the economy. It's not all dire right now in the middle of the month. It'll get more interesting 2 weeks from now.

Some members of the GOP also don't want stimulus to keep going through a possible Biden presidency. Some Dems want to ensure that it does--both for obvious reasons.

Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 - POLITICO

This is surprising

Sigh.

(username checks out)

The individual state polls are not as clear cut.

In 2016, The RealClearPolitics average had Hillary Clinton +6.5 in Wisconsin on election day. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed Donald Trump winning the state. Joe Biden has a +6.3 average right now — which is to say, he is slightly underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and ensuing economic collapse. This is the case in several battleground states.

Right, but the national polls are what was right on in 2016 while some of the states (Wisconsin being one) were off. This is partly because some states didn't get polled a lot. If Biden wins by 7-8 points, it won't matter how far state polls were off.

And polling has changed so much since 2016 its pointless to keep pointing back to it.

I like how you picked Wisconsin and the .2 difference in polling from 4 years ago as basis for your claim. I mean, I guess you had to pick either that or Minnesota, because those are the only states among the 16 that RCP classifies as a Battleground where Biden is currenly underperforming Clinton's final polling average. Don't believe me? Here are the numbers...

FL (Biden +1.2, Trump +.2)
MI (Biden +4.2, Clinton +3.4)
PA (Biden +4.3, Clinton +1.9)
NC (Biden +0.8, Trump +1.0)
AZ (Biden +4.8, Trump 4.0)
MN (Biden +5.8, Clinton +10)
OH (Biden +2.4, Trump +3.5)
IA (Trump +1.7, Trump +3.0)
NV (Biden +6.0, Trump +.8)
NH (Biden +8.0, Clinton +.6)
VA (Biden +12.5, Clinton +5.0)
GA (Trump +1.3, Trump +4.8)
TX (Trump +3.5, Trump +12.0)
CO (Biden +10, Clinton +2.9)
NM (Biden +14.5, Clinton +5.0)

Also, even if we use Wisconsin, not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed Clinton reaching 50% in the state. Biden has hit that number in 5 of the 7 most recent polls posted.


So you just made this up and hoped no one would check?

I'm not sure even what the point of the disagreement is. Based on the info we have at the moment, Biden is ahead, but yes, that doesn't mean Trump can't win. Using the information we have doesn't mean we're wrong or biased. I'm not sure what is gained by always saying, but what if that changes or isn't accurate?

I don't know what the chances are for a Trump victory, 10%, 30%, higher? With the unique qualities of this election, the virus, the mail-in voting, the lack of GOP consent decree, etc., I think it's really, really hard to predict. But none of that changes what we know right now.

I agree. Trump absolutely has a chance to win and anyone counting him out hasn't been paying attention. However, if he does win it's not going to be because of the same polling errors from 2016.

Thanks for giving me some hope (for a Peloton) 2 weeks from now.

538 has President Trump with a 25% chance right now.

That feels right. It seems silly to say he's winning. It seems equally silly to say that he's out of it.

Flip a coin twice. If it comes up heads both times, Trump wins. Those are not horrible odds.

Any outcome is possible, I think the disagreement is just over what is likely to happen, how much of a chance Trump has, etc. I think anything over 10% is excessively optimistic for his chances. It's about the time frame where it's reasonable to start referencing fivethirtyeight's projection, which has Biden at 75% chance to win and trending up (it was 71% a few days ago). Typically they get more confident the closer the election gets, so unless the polling picture changes considerably that number will grow more. I think we'll be upwards of 95% sure going into election night barring a major shift.

I am 100% certain there will be at least one Oct surprise this year.

I'm not, but even if there is, those things can go both ways.

Totally normal.

Stone's list includes: evoke Insurrection Act, declare martial law: arrest Zuckerberg, Tim Cook & Clintons, send federal agents to "physically stand in the way" on Election Day, seize NV's ballots; take Harry Reid into custody; "nationalize" NV police, arrest Daily Beast staff https://t.co/EHZQcXcV3J

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 12, 2020

Why Harry Reid? Why Nevada? Whuh? This seems a bit farfetched, even for Trumpland.

SI

There's no fucking way you actually said that and I know you're paying attention.

How about I parse this out:

The part about the Insurrection Act, martial law and federal troops on election day, I can see some "logic" there.

The Clintons sounds like a GOP wet dream but unlikely.

Zuckerberg helps Trump.

Tim Cook? Huh?

The Daily Beast, of all outlets?

Why Nevada ballots?

And what the hell - Harry Reid? He hasn't been relevant for a while. Like I mean, he's not even a power-behind-the-throne or kingmaker sort.

It reads more like a rando enemies list than anything.

SI

Lets not ignore that he once again teased a third term last night.

My guess is some of that is Q related.

My mother in law is the worst kind of Trump supporter. I unfollowed her on Facebook because I couldn't handle all the fake shit she shares. My brother in law texted me this morning one that is blatantly false, a tweet allegedly sent by AOC about keeping businesses closed to hurt Trump.

I decided to take the 5 minutes and create a fake Twitter account under her name, used a picture from Facebook, and did a quick profile claiming her love for Biden an fired off a few tweets. I screen grabbed them and am now fighting the temptation to post them on her facebook page to illustrate just how easy it is to manipulate this stuff online.

Be sure to ask wife for permission first (and then do it anyway).

Problem is my MIL wouldn't get the point. She would see it as me picking on her instead of trying to prove a very valid point. Funny but people being manipulated generally don't like to address the fact they are being manipulated.

Which islands are the best to retire to?

What planet have I been on for the past 5 years?

The Economist went to a construction site in Ohio, a key swing state - and this is what they found https://t.co/n0v58wRTG7 pic.twitter.com/uNptxA3C7o

— Matthew Garrahan (@MattGarrahan) September 13, 2020

Apparently not Fox News island.

The Trump rally in NV is going to be interesting. Supposedly 6,200 attended, pics that I saw showed most/all not wearing masks and not 6ft apart.

NV had lower infection rate and deaths. So not sure if 6,200 is enough to cause a spike in early-mid Oct. But if it does, it could hurt Trump. If it doesn't, Trump can use it to reinforce his point that it's overblown.

From a Woodward tape:

I guess a college education might be worth something after all, when the trades can produce people like this.

Pandemic
Unemployment
Wildfires
Racial Unrest
Hurricane about to hit

Your President's focus:

Our people have all left Drudge. He is a confused MESS, has no clue what happened. Down 51%. @DRUDGE They like REVOLVER and others!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 14, 2020

Can you imagine being someone who thinks that Donald Trump cares about you at all?

Meanwhile, this is how the campaign is actually being conducted:

‘This is f---ing crazy’: Florida Latinos swamped by wild conspiracy theories - POLITICO

My appreciation for the effectiveness of this kind of shit, and my resulting depression about the same, just continues to grow. I guess you still put some effort into "normal" stuff like good/popular policy, but at some point why even bother? Lies and propaganda are just a better bang for your buck. smh

Welp. We had a good run.

Jaw-dropping full report on Utah anti-mask protest. pic.twitter.com/lfpLj4cWkz

— Tommy X-TrumpIsARacist-opher (@tommyxtopher) September 13, 2020

There is still, it seems, a real disconnect going on.

I see serious Democrats talking about how Biden is "not connecting with Hispanic voters worried about socialism." Like this is just a normal problem.

The issue is actually lies and propaganda being driven by sophisticated hostile foreign actors.

It's like my financial advisor steals my life's savings and runs off to Mexico, and everyone comes in very concerned about my lack of money and points out how I should have picked a savings account with a .035% return and not a .025% return if I wanted to maximize my money.

The discussions of the problem show that most people still have no idea what the problem actually is.

I have been volunteering for the Biden campaign and the number of people that accuse Biden of being a pedophile is staggering. It's hard to know if they are just trolling or actually believe it but is not just a few.

I mean shit, just let 'em die at this point. Fuck it.

Not quite sure where to put this developing story.

The SD Attorney General said he was involved in an accident Saturday night and that he had hit and killed a deer. Turns out he hit and killed a man walking on the side of the road.

I'm sure more will come out soon.

Yes. I think he cares a great deal about himself, and some about his immediate family. All bets are off beyond that.

On the subject of Trump's Nevada rally:

Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak: "Tonight, President Donald Trump is taking reckless and selfish actions that are putting countless lives in danger here in Nevada. The president appears to have forgotten that this country is still in the middle of a global pandemic."

Trump Campaign Spokesman Tim Murtaugh: “If you can join tens of thousands of people protesting in the streets, gamble in a casino, or burn down small businesses in riots, you can gather peacefully under the 1st Amendment to hear from the President of the United States."

No one other than Law and Crime has picked up the story yet, but if what they're reporting about mass hysterectomies by ICE is true we've reached a new level of fascism.

People riot and burn down businesses.

Trump Campaign: "Look, they weren't wearing masks! They're hypocrites!"

[What I hope will turn out in November to be] a majority of Americans: Can we please put the adults back in charge?

And Mike Caputo, spokesperson for the DHHS, went on a Facebook rant saying the left is preparing to kill him and that government scientists are guilty of sedition.

What the fuck is going on

He also told the right to go out and buy guns and ammunition for the Biden supporters when he won't concede the election on election night.

We've been doing this since the 30's.

He's lowkey a really significant problem. He's the one pushing hard to doctor the CDC reports.

SI

And yet another guy in the administration with strong ties to Russia.