Nobody is defending Liz Cheney, but at least she has more balls than 99% of Republican men and any other person saying this about a political rival would get the same blowback. The only difference is it has no impact on Trumps appeal to his base.

He called her a chickenhawk who hides in a nice building in Washington while young Americans get shot at. That she's a coward for not going and fighting herself. It's a common argument anti-war people have made for decades.

Like I don't think he's smart enough to understand what he did but I can't believe how many people fell for this trap.

Seems a bit hypocritical coming from a 5 times draft dodger, no?

He's running as the anti-war candidate here, so no. He didn't vote for the war and he's not campaigning with the family who are most responsible for it.

I agree. It really takes the attention away from his "Israel should finish the job" comments.

Also takes away attention from his we should invade Mexico comments.

Well how will we be in wars when we are going to be busy deploying the military on our own citizens?

Those are bad things too and Harris should be talking about them instead of campaigning with the Cheney family.

Actually she can't talk about some of them because she supports that stuff too I guess.

Invading Mexico and deploying American troops against citizen's? I missed that on her agenda.

Liz Cheney called on Dubya to speak out today. Probably the best move for classic conservatism, if you think about it.

JFC

Trump: That beautiful white skin that I have would be nice and tan. I have the whitest skin because I never have time to go out in the sun. I have that beautiful white. It could’ve been beautiful tan. pic.twitter.com/EWteCNVahP

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 1, 2024

PredictIt has moved Harris ahead, and Trump has dropped 6% on Polymarket. What does that mean? The people that pumped those stocks are dumping to pull their cash out from the suckers. What does that mean for the election? Absolutely nothing.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Apparently one dude in France has pumped $50 million into polymarket on Trump and had fucked the odds up.

W.....T....F...



To add on to this string of conversation, could have quoted other people here but I just picked one:

I've said it before, but I think this mindset just drastically underestimates how unacceptable the modern Democratic Party is to some people. Trump has a certain amount of support from people who really like him, but a lot of his support is from people who don't. They think the alternative is even worse. Goes back to when we were talking about the whole 'weird' segment of the campaign. Too many people, including some on this board, get locked into the whole 'we're the normal ones' way of thinking and can't/won't see that to a sizable number of people, it's 'us' who are the weird/dangerous element. To them, Trump isn't good but he's far less dangerous.

What do you mean by the Modern Democratic Party? Democrats have been in the White House for 20 of the last 32 years, and their biggest achievement, ACA, is pretty well liked. How dangerous can it be?

It's dangerous because Fox News says so.

The racist mf.

Trump: Your team is very good. I would say the Greek is a seriously good player, do you agree? And tell me, who has more Greek in him? The Greek or me? I think we have about the same right? pic.twitter.com/axhaziqNta

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 2, 2024

I don't think that really captures the amount of people who do support him. Just a couple of days ago I saw a poll where 70% of GOPers thought Trump was a good role-model for kids.

He'll end up owing the mic $130k

I think I got banned from my barbershop. The guy in the seat behind me was talking all kinds of shit about Kamala and eventually said something about how she'd be attractive if she shut her mouth.

As I was leaving my guy asked about early voting and I said something about how I was voting for Kamala so that hopefully those pieces of garbage Biden was talking about would shut the fuck up. The other barber asked what did he say, and I just thanked my guy and walked out.

Since the other guy is the owner I'm assuming I can't really go back, but I sat there for 30 minutes while those dumb racists fucks wouldn't shut the hell up. As a white dude, I get why people hate us because we think we can do or say whatever we want without any consequences.

I’m a middle aged bearded white dude in a red area. People always assume I’m maga and it drives me nuts.

I mean what those words literally mean. ACA is pretty well-liked, roughly 60% of people support it. That means 40%ish don't. It's not the only thing around either. People have varying opinions on how the pandemic was handled, in changes to transgender and similar issues, on how inflation was dealt with and who/what to blame for it, on whether we should be doing anything about climate change, on how we should handle minorities and immigration, on and on it goes.

When you look at Trump and say 'he's an asshole, but what Democrats are proposing is unacceptable' which way do you go if you're a 'lesser of two evils' person? We've talked before on the board about candidates who didn't follow Trump and people say they did 'the right thing', but I'd never vote for them because of other policies they believe in. We see it all the time right on this board. Most people, even most of those who say otherwhise, don't actually highly value candidates of character. They value candidates who will do and say the things they want done on some issue and don't care about anything else, so when bad things happen they blame the people in charge regardless of whether they actually did it. When the people in charge propose or do things they don't like, they look for alternatives no matter how terrible the alternative might be, it feels preferable to what they have now and know they don't like.

I would wager, that on a lifeboat with a bunch of survivors who happen to be trump supporters, that he wouldn't be elected as the leader of the boat.



Now, I have no proof of it, but a lot of his support comes from people who have nothing to fear from his leadership style. I'd bet that if they did, that they would start to evaluate through a different lens.

I don't think the things you've described could be called "dangerous" - they seem more like disagreements, as you call them now. But honestly, forgetting the idea of who's weird or whatever, I can't imagine any issue being so important someone would vote for a guy who says undocumented immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country" (just picking one off the top of my head). The economy, abortion, even wars that are bad but have a thin veil of well-meaningness, none of that is more important than making sure we absolutely do not support that kind of hate. Once we're not doing that, we can worry about the other stuff.

I understand the impulse to say, o I'm not garbage, but I'll never understand those that are screaming you're goddamn right I'm garbage and dressing up in trash bags.

I mean, it seems like each time a "modern democrat" is in the White House, people have prospered. Deficits have been cut and spending is about the same. People who think voting for an autocrat who wants to use the military to ignore election results is better than "the traitorous democrats" are just plain stupid. I mean, they even benefit from the alleged "open borders", despite the fact that Obama had reduced border crossings. There is not an economist around that will tell you we are saved if we kick everyone out, which is why nobody actually wants to go on the record voting for it.

If you yell lies at gullible people loud enough and for enough time, it becomes truth.

I don't know how better define either of these things than "weird."





Me, too. The level of racism that just casually falls out of people's mouths is shocking. Rarely if ever happened before 2016, but Trump gave people permission to be openly racist again.

Oh he's definitely seen them:

Trump: "Can you imagine a wife not telling a husband who she's voting for? Did you ever hear anything like that? Even if you had a horrible -- if you had a bad relationship, you're gonna tell your husband." pic.twitter.com/gd5of817VY

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 2, 2024

Probably also saw and laughed about that slimy Fox host likening his wife (hypothetically) voting for Harris to having an affair. Which is ironic because his current wife was his affair.

The Texas governor is telling the feds that Texas law doesn't allow them in polling places.

I don' think it works that way.

Definitely not garbage, or deplorable though.

I mean, they're white people, and they're garbage. They're literally white trash. The descriptor was never inaccurate.

Still trying to understand what's so dangerous about the Democrats policy...when we've seen how dangerous Trumpanzees are in power.

The Cuban-American parents I knew from Cub Scouts were certain that we would be Communist under Biden.

Speaking of garbage. Imagine Newt Gingrich lecturing people about a "sense of morality" and lying to their spouses

The best thing about that Jesse Watters take is that, in the past, he's bragged about how he let the air out of one of the tires of his first wife's vehicle to force her to ask him for a ride home one day and that led to them dating. A few years later he got caught having an affair with a producer on his show and he's now married to her.

Don't have a link to the actual article, but the NYTimes polling "guru" Nate Cohn says that pollsters are scared about being wrong about Trump again, so to protect their polling company/newspaper/reputation, they are purposedly ignoring polling results that show Harris with a larger lead because how can they believe their own results when it shows Harris at +7, and therefore they report more toss-up and Republican leading numbers than they should.


So as I've said before, totally ignore polls, none of them can be considered completely accurate or trustworthy-so don't panic over one that show bad things for your preferred Candidate, and encourage everyone to vote.



x.com

I swear I saw this exact same thing about Florida. Something tells me they're comparing notes.

The issue I have with this sort of thing is that if Harris outperforms the current polls by just say around 2-3%, sweeping all or nearly all of the typical swing states, grabs NC and/or GA, ending up with 300+ EV when “EVEN THE
LIB POLLS SAID IT WAS SUPER CLOSE!!! THIS IS SUCH OBVIOUS CHEETING!!!” The very fact of a “big” (EC-wise) win when the polls said “super duper close and leaning toward Trump near the end” would be taken as proof of cheating.

Yep in practically every filing/post about the charges against him, Trump proclaims that the polls have him ahead so you know he's going to use polls to try to prove that the Dems are cheating.

Nate Silver said the same thing. Something is off abiut the polling.

We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there's only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race. 🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑 pic.twitter.com/X131aHveRR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2024

It was very odd a couple of weeks ago when several high quality polls all came out tied.

I've long maintained that this cycle's presidential polls have been obviously out of whack and/or over-adjusted. If they're not going to even trust their own results, and try to 'massage' things to match expectations, they are less than useless and practically misinformation.

I've been on the same boat. I've also read multiple GOP insiders that have said Trump's polling and election analytics people are very worried about what they've seen in early voting numbers.

EDIT: It was also really weird that several pollsters were saying they're very confident they aren't underestimating Trump this time around. The only way you're confident in that is if you're over-adjusting in some way.

This is just a difference in degree, and that degree is different for various people. I could just as easily say I don't think Trump is dangerous and people are making way too big a deal out of his drawbacks. (I don't think that). Just to take one issue, there are people to whom the whole transgender thing is a demonstration that people on the 'wrong' side of it are certifiably insane and have no business being anywhere near public office. You find to people to that level of disagreement on almost *any* issue. The question is just how many; people care more about some issues than others.


Tell that to people who think inflation is the top issue, the amount we saw post-pandemic is unacceptable, see housing prices going through the roof, etc. The truth is far more complicated than this.


Let's assume that's accurate. 70% of the GOP is nowhere near enough for a close election. It requires a lot of independents to vote Trump for that to happen. These things are never about the diehards who would never consider voting for someone with the 'wrong' letter in front of their name. It's about what happens to motivate the center to turn out in large numbers, and who they vote for.

On the polls, if it turns out they've been flat-out lying about the results like that, to my mind that is many times worse than being off a couple % one way or the other, i.e. uninentionally biased in favor of one candidate or another and not getting it 'right'. Any pollster who is deliberately shifting what they report in that way is behaving despicably.

But you weren't talking about a close election. You said a lot of Trump's support is from people who don't really like him.

There is so much rhetoric already coming from the Trump camp about them winning big, the only way they can lose is fraud, etc...that it is pretty obvious what their strategy is.

Right. And unless the independents who vote for him really like him, and that 30% who didn't say he was a good role model in the poll you mention really like him, that's the case. There's been a lot of other data on this that I don't have the time and energy to dig back up for this discussion, but basically a lot of Trump's support has been driven by his 'style' not his character or even often his specific policy; this has been written about going back to 2016.

He gives the appearance of a 'strong leader' to people who feel that their representatives have been weak and made them ashamed to be Americans and sometimes acted and spoke like people should be ashamed to be Americans for decades. I think that's a very bad way to look at it, but it is how a number of them view him.

You know what's more annoying than political ads? Political ads that are for races you can't vote in. I live in Ohio, why am I seeing political ads for a race in Texas!

Are you watching a sporting event with a team from Texas?

RFK Jr. said that if Trump wins they'll advise cities to stop adding fluoride to water.

Dr. Strangelove predicts the Trump admin.

Yes, but it is on a local station

Oh my God. Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris up 47-44. I thought Harris would be doing better than the Trump +8 2020 result based on what I'd seen in the suburbs but not that much better! Selzer is considered a really good pollster who doesn't herd. She must see something in her numbers showing Trump struggling here. Could be struggling in other parts of the upper midwest too.

I just can't imagine Harris winning in Iowa, but it's probably not 11 points off, so she's on track to at least do better than Biden. That bodes well nationally.

I absolutely don't see her winning Iowa but if Iowa is even close, she's winning the election.

Yeah, I think it'd be crazy if she won here. Biden got 45 in 2020 so anything above that would be amazing. This is a state that has moved right since 2020 if anything so who knows.There have been recent polls of Ohio and Kansas that show those a lot closer so maybe Trump is in worse shape than we think and battleground pollsters are herding. That's my hope anyway.

I'm expecting not to like a lot of a Harris presidency, but a big win would put a stake through Trumpism and that would be very beneficial for the country.

The thing is... this could be the logical direction after what we have seen about vaccinations. What started with anger over mask mandates and the like turned into anger over covid vaccine mandates, and then over the covid vaccines themselves, and now (as this has made people feel really good about being "independent" and "doing their own research") there's a whole demographic who are basically rejecting the entire concept of vaccinations for anything. We're going to see completely avoidable spikes in measles and worse as communities dense with redpilled or otherwise susceptible residents follow along with the claptrap they read on facebook, and hear from these "leaders" on their chosen television sources. And perhaps from their White House.

Play it forward. Fluorine in the water? Conspiracy. Alabama shuts it down. Massachusetts keeps theirs going. Liberal places tax sugary beverages, ban kid-focused advertising for nicotine products, educate kids on safe sex practices, improve standards for school lunch nutrition, and so forth... conservative places just don't. How many more things could fall the same way?

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.

Selzer poll has to be alarming for Trump and his team. I imagine the Dems would have taken anything closer than the 2020 margin (Trump 53 to Biden 45) as a good sign that the gap had closed, but Kamala +3 is pretty hard to believe.

On election night, I will be watching my county here in WV. Every county in WV went for Trump in 2020, but mine was 20,803 to 20,282 (49.4 to 48.2). I noticed 4 or 5 Harris signs on Halloween night while we were out with the kids and no Trump signs, where in 2020 there were no Biden signs and 2-3 Trump signs. I think my county will probably flip blue and should be a pretty good early bellwether with it having been so close before. State polls close at 7:30 PM and are usually reported upon pretty quickly. The state will immediately be called for Trump, but it will be interesting to see if the county flips.

Portland doesn't flouridate their water and never has as far as I know. Dentists immediately know when you grew up out of state.

Cross tabs on the Iowa poll? It's the women. Women across all ages. +20% Harris.

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We're kind of already there.

The states with the highest infant mortality rates are: Mississippi, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Indiana, and Georgia.

The states with the highest rate of heart disease are: Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky.

States with highest obesity rates: West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Tennessee.

States with highest death rates from Flu: Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas.

And so on and so on.

wow

Selzer poll is jaw dropping news

That Iowa poll put Harris up to .56 on PredictIt.

This is THE poll as well.



What’s the squirrel/raccoon foolishness I keep seeing?

Guy in rural NY saves baby squirrel, tries to set free, squirrel comes back (injured). Man keeps squirrel as pet for eight years, makes him an instagram. Guy recently rescues raccoon. Neighbors report man, wildlife service raids home, takes raccoon and squirrel, euthanizes them.

Guy rescued both in New York, where having them as pets are illegal. They had a big following online. The state ended up taking them and putting them down.

And the hits keep coming-there were rumors of a big story that would hit before the election-here it is. Daily Beast has a story and recording from Jeffrey Epstein that says Donald is one of his closest friends and describes a bunch of stuff he did with him.


x.com

And the disparity in outcomes will be used as proof that the elites don't like the people in red states.

This election might just be as simple as Dobbs really pissed off women.

The Selzer poll results are consistent with a Dobbs effect.

Trump mostly holds his margin with men while losing serious ground among women. pic.twitter.com/C1fmnSSVj8

— Jake Rubinstein (@Jlrube) November 3, 2024

I;m going to hate myself for it but I will probably vote for Harris on Tuesday only because Trump is such a douche.

That's more or less my reasoning. I hope the Selzer stuff is representative. It will almost certainly be the last time I vote D for a long time, but it's a narrowly better choice than voting third-party this time in my estimation.

The other thing is, if the race goes the way you would expect from what ... I don't know, do we call it the 'Selzer Shift' or somesuch if you extrapolate nationally ... the rest of the pollsters are going to have destroyed their credibility. That would be massively worse than any of the other slightly off outlooks in past cycles.

So Trump performed a blowjob on the microphone at his rally in Milwaukee today

Nate Silver is certainly hedging.

He has been talking about how improbable it would be for all 7 swing states to be within 1% and said it would be something like 1 in 9.5 trillion for it to happen.

Now he has an easy out to extend his 15 minutes for another 4-years because he can blame the pollsters for his magical model being off.

Happy that you both decided not to vote 3rd party this time around.

A large portion of the state may remember how disastrous Trumps tariffs were the first time around and are like, nah, fuck that shit, this time around.

KY will still go for trump, but in my area, which is more balanced, but still more R, there's far lower trump energy than 16 or 20. We voted. I know my home was 4 votes for Harris.

I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.

Just remember we're just a couple of members of a forum that leans a certain way.

It's just like the way that you thought Firefly was the greatest show ever yet it got canceled.

Do what now?

Ha, I've not been commenting on a lot of people's replies here recently because it was just stressing me out too much.

If Trump loses there's going to be a lot of focus on that MSG rally. It served absolutely no purpose electorally and was done to feed his own ego. He's always wanted do to something at MSG and had the chance.

One crazy thing about that rally that I think is somewhat overlooked is we have a former president, running for reelection, days away from election day, having a campaign rally at one of the most prestigious venues in the country, and not a single politician of any merit showed up to support him. That's why he ended up having Tony Hinchcliffe, Rudy Giuliani, Sid Rosenberg, and Grant Cardone speaking.

If the theory is that the pollsters are all herding in the swing states to not underestimate Trump again, looking at non-competitive states might be more valuable where they aren't herding. There have been some interesting polls like Trump only up 3% in Ohio and 5% in Kansas. I doubt they'll be that close but it does show that she might be performing much better than people thought.

If she does win, there will be talk of MSG and a bunch of other stuff. I still think it comes down to Dobbs. It's an incredibly unpopular decision and people who lose rights tend to be quite motivated. And I wonder if a woman on the ticket as opposed to Biden who wasn't exactly a champion of women's rights provided an added boost. Doesn't hurt that Trump went with Vance who has a lot of creepy things to say about women.

This stuff should be huge news but Dems can't run with it because of their Clinton idoltry and the media has mostly just treated Epstein as a mystery that can't be reported on anymore. One day it'd be nice to know who was all involved and what in the fuck was Epstein's deal. Like how did this loser get all that money and connections to powerful people? Was he blackmailing people? Was he a CIA asset? I feel crazy for thinking this should have been a much bigger story.

It's definitely a factor. Vance is also not at all popular in Ohio and surrounding states from what i recall. (and yeah, Iowa has a near total abortion ban now that is not popular).

The difference being if similar news came out about Bill Clinton they would have dropped him from any rally/get our the vote effort. Pedofiles/adultry the way it has been described with Trump, just never would have been allowed in a Party so strongly into woman's rights as they are now. I think what Clinton did with Lewisnsky in the White House should have been enough for him to resign out of embarassment, and it should have been enough to isolate him from the Party in case stories like this came out about him.

The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

Fascinating how loyal and devoted so many of his followers are, but the people closest to him just hate him.

Props to whoever did this, LOL, though Vance will explain he used real time AI to makes the seats look empty. Then they will throw him on the people to imprison list.

So, the Selzer poll can be off by 5 points, which puts Trump at 49 and Harris at 42, much more in line with expectations.

Nah, what you describe is a 10 point swing, not a 5 point one. (47-45 or 46-44 Trump would be the equivalent to this single 5 point discrepancy)

He won Iowa by 9 in 2020. Even a 4 or 5 point win in Iowa is a bad sign for him

Is this is the political equivalent to the argumemt over what it means to be X number of games under .500? :D

Selzer's congressional polling is also a disaster for the GOP.

Little ol' Greensboro keeps having newsworthy stuff in this campaign. :p