I think this underestimates the number of people who voted Republican because of Trump. Some also did it in spite of him, but the fact that he wasn't calculating was a big factor for a lot of people.

Yeah I think how a post-Trump election will go is anyone's guess. You can easily argue that a hell of a lot of Trump voters are going to lose interest as soon as he's not on the ticket.

I think a lot also depends on what the platform is. Trumpism even in terms of proposals was much different than, for example, the kind of thing that Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush or John Kasich advocated. I think it's pretty clear that Trumpism has a larger bloc of voters behind it, but it's not foregone where they next candidate lands on that spectrum. There's still an awful lot of prominent Republican politicans who, for most of their career, haven't been following that ideology.

So... I check my bank account this morning to make sure my paycheck was deposited, and I see a child tax credit payment. WTF? I don't think I qualify. I mean, I have a 17 year old but I thought I was above the income cut-off. Now I need to look into whether I can opt out because I don't need it now and don't want to have to pay it back next year. Thanks Obama!

You can opt out.

Same thing happened to me, I got a letter the other day from the IRS saying we were getting something. I was surprised because at the risk of a humble brag we are considerably over what I would expect the cap to be. Turns out we are JUST under it. They basically scale back the amount based on certain income levels, so we don't get the full amount, but I was surprised it was more than I thought.

I have a question. Is the amount we are getting now just the increased credit or the entire credit? If the increased credit amount then it shouldn't really impact my taxes when I file next year. If it is an advance of the entire credit, then I need to save it and that will have big impacts on many families.

Yeah, I just went through the process of registering with the IRS to opt out. Now I have to do the same with my wife since we file jointly. I wish I had gotten a letter so I could have done it before the payment hit.

I only got $175 so it's not the end of the world but that would be $1050 through the end of the year that I don't want to have to pay back (or reduce my refund) next year. I kinda like getting a couple thousand back in February every year, plus I'm never entirely sure I'm going to get a refund and I definitely don't feel like writing a check like I did when Trump's tax cuts when into effect but they never updated the tax tables so I got hit with owing money for 2016.

What I read in a couple of articles this morning is that it's half of the credit you would expect to get. The example I saw in an article is that if you had 1 kid under 6, you are entitled to $3600 so you would get $300 for 6 months (equal to $1800).

This is what I read as well

That is what i read as well, so it half of the total amount not the increase.

Similar to you guys, I wasn't expecting it but got my letter two days ago with my amount. I think I'm going to opt out for future months and if I get a bigger refund I'll be happy. Don't need it now.

The government does not give you interest on the amount, so why is everyone so keen on a refund? I'd rather get the $300/month and get less back at refund time (if I were getting refunds). You can use that $300 to invest in a DRIP account or something rather than loaning the government money at 0%.

I don't know exactly what it is, but there's definitely a US-based scandal connected to the Haiti assassination.

This is my thought. We had just authorized our investment guy to take out an additional $500 a month for investing so it works out.

Doesn't bother me. I'd rather see money in February, or not have to pay anything if I'm not getting money back. If it was a significant sum then it would feel like I was giving something up. As it is, I feel like it's just taking away something I count on every February.

The answer I always get is that people don't want to manage their money responsibly - some people have flat-out put it that way to me - and will spend whatever they make so not having access to that money during the year and getting the refund helps them.

My response is simply learn to handle money better, learn not to rely on a February/March windfall, etc. But it's just sort of something that's ingrained in the mindset for a lot of people. It's unquestionably better from a logical point of view to have your money now rather than give the fed an interest-free loan.

2012 and 2016 turnout was 55%, while 2020 was almost 67%. Trump and hate/fear of more Trump drove the election and I doubt there's another Republican that can get the same draw on either side.

Sherrod Brown

I'd be stunned if the sitting VP was denied the nomination.

That's actually a good call

You're not wrong, but I don't think President Kamala Harris appeals to practically anybody at this point.

If that is the case just call us a fascist nation now.

Brown would be great and help with the rust belt. Establishment hates him so it'll never happen.

When you get your Child Tax Credit payment, just remember:

Every single Republican in Congress voted against it. pic.twitter.com/7MwmsrIGVP

— Sherrod Brown (@SenSherrodBrown) July 15, 2021

Hey man, we're working on it!

Are we talking about the same guy who was on Hillary Clinton's shortlist for VP (and reportedly only missed out because they didn't want to lose Ohio in the Senate for years)? That's the guy the establishment hates?

Besides there is an obvious answer for 2024. His name is Joe Biden.

I love Joe, but God I hope not. He shouldn't run again.

Unless Biden is physically debilitated or dead, I would be shocked if the Dem nominee is anyone else.

If the Dems roll out Biden again and the right rolls out anyone not named Trump, likely DeSantis who is young, well educated, and well spoken, the dems will get killed.

Just my opinion, but outside of some seismic event, I think it will be a long, long time before anyone gets rolled again. With the environment so polarized, it is tough to envision any democrat or republican presidential candidate getting less than 45% (Hillary thought 47% of the population wasn't even worth campaigning to) of the vote or more than 53-55% unless there is a really viable third party candidate. With gerrymandering, it is largely the same with the US House and the Senate rarely has a massive swing between the power of incumbency and how polarized the states are (there are only 4 or 5 states that have senators from different parties now).

If Biden is the incumbent and anywhere near healthy enough to run, he will run and start out as the favorite. If the economy is in decent shape and there is not another pandemic raging, it is going to be real tough to say things are not better than they were four years ago. I'm sure the GOP, if they win back the house or senate, will try to gum things up and their success will probably be the biggest factor as to whether a health-permitting Biden wins comfortably or it is another late election night (or week).

Here's a good article summarizing the various reasons to opt out of the child tax payments. I'm not even entirely sure I qualify, so I definitely don't want to get hit with a tax bill next year. But even if I do, I prefer to have a bit of wiggle room in my taxes to ensure I don't have to pay. The idea that I'm giving an "interest free loan" to the government for $167 a month is kinda laughable in terms of impact. It's just not enough for me to care about from the standpoint of trying to take advantage of the situation.

You may want to opt out of child tax credit checks before Aug. 2. Here's why - CNET

It only takes like a .5% shift because of the way the Electoral College and gerrymandering has elections set up for any election to go from a squeaker Democratic win to a Republican blow-out landslide. Dems could win the general vote by 3 percent, and the Republicans would have a huge majority in congress and the Electoral College count. Blow outs definitely can happen, but largely only for the GOP.

I don't think he is that popular with the donor class which the Democrats still worship.

One mistake I think the Democrats are making is not touting this child tax credit more. Every left-wing group should be pounding the airwaves with ads about it. "Hey, that $300 you just got is because of us!". The party is just not great at touting their accomplishments and this is a pretty big one.

I agree with everything you wrote, except this. The last two Democratic Presidents had this exact scenario happen to them, and comfortably won re-election.

This time the opposing party is trying to overturn elections and is not too keen on the democracy stuff.

You are way too pessimistic. Sounds like what people were saying this time last year about Biden. Not only will Biden run in 2024, but I bet he wins. Especially if it's against some moron like Desantis.

I do think Desantis is at his peak. If it isn't Trump, I expect it will be someone we're not focused on now.

I've probably never agreed more with ISiddiqui. I think there's a small chance Biden doesn't run in '24. But if he does, he's the clear favorite. Seems apparent to me he's taking care to not be overly divisive in most areas. That bothers some people, but it also makes it hard to run against him without a big plus in your corner to bank on. There's always 'what if the economy turns south again' or 'What if Crisis X emerges', but I think stable leadership getting us out of the pandemic will count for a lot

Health notwithstanding ... assuming economy is doing well and we are in the stable new normal (e.g. living with Covid), I do agree Biden is the front runner.

I can see where the radical left will turn against Biden if they are not happy with his initiatives and wins. This could make that group apathetic to voting.

I am somewhat concerned about Biden not running and Kamala becomes the default front-runner. She hasn't done/said enough to impress me as VP ... and doesn't seem that Biden is positioning (or supporting her) well enough.

IMO Biden is doing a good job. In no particular order

1) Economy is recovering, markets are doing well (except for that damn ARKK)
2) Worse of the pandemic looks to be behind us
3) Has made progress repairing relations with allies
4) Not final, but seems to have a win with bipartisanship infrastructure (I'm not optimistic about the other $3.5T he wants though)
5) No frakking stupid tweets every 2-3 days that causes unnecessary wtfs

There are things I'm not happy with (e.g. legal/illegal immigration policy, China stance seems to be the old Trump stuff, Hunter stuff wtf is going on there etc.) but yeah, he's probably a 7 or 8 out of 10 for me right now.

Kamala has some Clintonesque hate out there from conservative fence sitters too. I suppose it's just her liberal track record as I really don't know much about her, but I heard enough venom-spitting at her VP nomination that I think she'd be a sure loser as a presidential candidate.

She's 1/2 black. The math isn't too hard.

And a woman. Lot of people don’t want a woman in power.

She's half black and a woman to complete the equation.

It is not pessimism. Joe is showing his age now. Three years from now after having the toughest job in the world weighing down on him? If he is the best candidate, that is a really sad statement for the Democratic party.

No chance Biden runs again

Around here we’re only a few weeks away from Pelosi and Harris invoking an article that claims Biden is not of sound mind and we have Harris as President.

I mean that’s what I’ve been told since day 1 and I’m certain it’ll come true because the proponents of that theory would never want to admit that they were wrong… which they always go back to the place they spread the bullshit and clarify that they were wrong.


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The Biden-FB tiff is interesting.

I don't know why Biden is being so aggressive vs FB. I get FB can do better but seems to me Biden will get more cooperation with behind the scenes vs directly confronting FB.

(If that's been tried already, didn't see it in the news).

Eh, I get it generally, but there are some specific people I've talked to for whom neither of those things would be an issue.

I kind of worry about the Dakota Gov Noem running.

Her problem will be there will be not an insignificant number of people in her party that won't vote for her because she's a woman. She's also not Trump in any way and would likely lose a large percentage of the Trump or stay home voters.

For the Dems.... sure Joe could run and if against Trump win easily. I think it would be a toss up against anyone else due to the gerrymandering stuff. I wonder if California Gov Newsom beats the recall and gets reelected Gov next year if he would run. I could get behind him.

GOP elites, almost all of whom are vaccinated, are going to encourage anti-vax sentiment, watch people get sick and die, and then blame it all on Biden's failure.

I'm not sure I've ever seen anything as cynical.

She certainly wants it, but lots of small state pols before her got destroyed when they faced serious attention for the first time.