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-   -   POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=99329)

Jas_lov 10-30-2024 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic (Post 3446966)
Biden needs to stay in the White House and STFU until after November 5. For the better part of the last five months, he's been the gift that keeps on giving to the Trump campaign. It's almost like he's become an accidental surrogate for Trump every time he shuffles up to a podium and opens his mouth.


Agreed. I dont know what Joe was even doing with Voto Latino on the night of Harris's big speech. Just watch the speech and relax on the beach until the election. He completely ruined her big night.

RainMaker 10-30-2024 06:06 PM

The guy has said "we beat Medicare" and that he saw videos of beheaded babies. He's called Zelensky Putin and called Harris Trump. It's sad the state he is in but the people running covered that up for years and they sort of have to suffer the consequences for their actions now.

GrantDawg 10-30-2024 06:19 PM

Yes. But it doesn't change what he said here, which is the discussion.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

BishopMVP 10-30-2024 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3446958)
Why does it matter? Trunp says 10 things worse than this every single day. It pissed his supporters off, but who cares? A significant portion of his supporters are trash and dems act like MAGA is some boogeyman they're afraid will be summoned.

I think it matters because there is overlap between the people who think Biden is referring to them and ones who were apathetic enough they are unlikely to make the low effort to vote. Won't change anyone's vote but could slightly help R turnout.

Atocep 10-30-2024 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 3446975)
I think it matters because there is overlap between the people who think Biden is referring to them and ones who were apathetic enough they are unlikely to make the low effort to vote. Won't change anyone's vote but could slightly help R turnout.


It's a group that lives in a perpetual state of anger. If it wasn't this, it would be something else. The people that are pissed their M&Ms aren't sexy anymore, that Mr. Potato head is just Potato head, that Star Wars was going to have a female director, claimed LEGO was grooming kids, that Starbucks holiday cups weren't Christmas enough, tan suits, ice cream, bicycles, etc.

Dems need to stop walking on eggshells and fearing MAGA. They're not scary. If Trump wins this election this won't be one of the top 100 reasons why it happened.

flere-imsaho 10-30-2024 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3446938)
I get the demographic piece, but I just checked, and only 16ish% of black people smoke, and while a huge percentage DO smoke menthols, we're still talking about a pretty tiny demographic that would care. (And now I'm gonna go check my Pandora profile to figure out if they even know I'm black....)


In the correct State, a relatively small number of votes (even 10K) could easily determine the entire election.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 3446960)
You talk a lot of shit for a nutjob behind a keyboard. Wish you'd give that a try around people that are actually worth a damn some time. Some of that "trash" might give you a badly needed education.


Oh man, there you go projecting again, Jon.

QuikSand 10-30-2024 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 3446953)
hxxps://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cj3me0r0pldo

This is a video of Biden's comments. He rambles but he does say "Donald Trump......The only garbage I see floating out there are his supporters."


But that's not what he actually says, even in the video you posted. He says "is" and not "are." Now, the comments are full of stumbles and stuff, so nothing is ironclad, but... it makes a difference. You cannot hear a difference between "supporter's" and "supporters" but there is an audible difference between "is" and "are" that structurally should settle which word it was.

I recognize it's already over, and it's been grabbed by the zeitgeist. But what really happened does feel like it ought to count for something.

Scott Adams has been really big on this, calling certain things a "hoax" in a specific way - when the story doesn't match the underlying action/statement, for political reasons. And in my view, he's right on a couple high profile examples:

-the video of Trump "mocking a disabled reporter" was him making a crude gesture that he used to do regularly, mocking stupid/indecisive people in general... pretty low class for a high office aspirant, but it honestly wasn't mean-spirited toward the disabled

-the quote about "very fine people on both sides" has been absorbed as pro-Nazi but it was spoken (by Trump) in reference to the people pre-demonstration who were in C'Ville to debate whether a confederate statue should remain on display, not on the race-tinged demonstrations that happened in the days afterward

Adams is, presumably, too deeply red-pilled to call balls and strikes fairly at this point, as he has recognized how powerful and lucrative the MAGA grift is for articulate and shifty people. But given the full evidence, and without the potential to affect a close election, and I think he'd see it the same way.

It was an unwise choice of words, delivered poorly, but Biden was genuinely saying that the only garbage was Trump's supporter's garbage. Not the Trump supporters.

Front Office Midget 10-30-2024 08:54 PM

Neo-Fash rally at Madison Square Garden with plenty of objectionable content?

That's the type of low-hanging fruit that the Dems can't help but screw up by carting out Biden and have him say something worse.

Hopefully people will still remember to vote for Kamala Harris due to the Bush and Cheney endorsements (lol). Rough campaign they've run.

It's a shame because I think she would turn out to be a decent President but it's hard to overcome themselves to get elected.

JPhillips 10-30-2024 09:04 PM

Kamala has run a better campaign than any other incumbent party in the developed world.

JPhillips 10-30-2024 09:08 PM

dola

I know I've said it before, but it's just shocking how quickly the GOP has become anti-vax.

PilotMan 10-30-2024 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3446987)
dola

I know I've said it before, but it's just shocking how quickly the GOP has become anti-vax.



My father being one of them. I was just visiting and multiple times they scoffed at anything Moderna. When I asked it was just "we don't like Moderna" and "they put stuff they shouldn't in vaccines" and bragged about how many vaccines they aren't planning to take and how they've managed to get this far in life without them (in spite of being vaccinated for everything in the air force). I asked he and his wife if they were vaccinated for small pox when they were young? They were both like 'yeah'. Then asked, 'were you?" "Nope." "Why not, you don't hear about it?" "Because it had been eradicated with vaccines." "Oh. Well, good."



Of course, it doesn't change anything. They need to keep their 'cred' up.

RainMaker 10-30-2024 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3446985)
Kamala has run a better campaign than any other incumbent party in the developed world.


lol

Atocep 10-30-2024 11:58 PM


Edward64 10-31-2024 04:38 AM

Who would the Israelis and Palestinians prefer? For the MI progressives, in this vote for one or the other, vote with the Palestinians.

How the US election could impact the Middle East
Quote:

As America prepares to vote, the Israeli leader has not hidden his appreciation for the Republican candidate - and polls suggest he’s not alone.

Around two-thirds of Israelis would prefer to see Trump back in the White House, according to recent surveys.

Less than 20% appear to want Kamala Harris to win. According to one poll, that drops to just 1% among Mr Netanyahu’s own supporters.
Quote:

But many Palestinians see little hope in either candidate.

“The overall estimation is that the Democrats are bad, but if Trump is elected it’ll be even worse,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a respected Palestinian analyst and politician in the occupied West Bank.

“The main difference is that Kamala Harris will be more sensitive to the shift in American public opinion, and that means more in favour of a ceasefire.”

GrantDawg 10-31-2024 06:29 AM

Georgia turnout in early voting is record high. Sounds great, till you hear the highest turnouts have been in the rural counties that are going to go 85-90% Trump. It has always been likely that Georgia is going Red, but it looks like it might be solid red. It is a bad sign if that trend continues in the other swing states.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3446991)
lol


What incumbent party has performed better?

Lathum 10-31-2024 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3447002)
Georgia turnout in early voting is record high. Sounds great, till you hear the highest turnouts have been in the rural counties that are going to go 85-90% Trump. It has always been likely that Georgia is going Red, but it looks like it might be solid red. It is a bad sign if that trend continues in the other swing states.


Trumps support has a hard ceiling. I suspect these aren’t new voters but people who are voting early instead of Election Day. This election has always been about turn out for the dems.

Ben E Lou 10-31-2024 06:48 AM

I don’t think anyone can read much in either direction regarding R early-vote turnout. Clearly they were told to vote early this time, when in the past they were told to vote on Election Day. And it’s next to impossible to quantify how many will not listen to the call to vote early this time. There’s definitely a contingent that believes—no matter what Trump or anyone else says—the only right way to vote is in person on Election Day.

Ksyrup 10-31-2024 06:52 AM

I know the campaign can't make this direct appeal, but all of these peripheral third-party organizations surely could - why hasn't anyone appealed to the middle of the country dissatisfied with both candidates and afraid/unwilling to vote for Harris for whatever reason by pointing out the GOP's Congressional advantage and that the best way to ensure that very little happens is a split government?

Put Harris in the WH to ensure sanity and, at worst, some continuity and save us from the craziness of Trump and Project 2025, and when the GOP takes one or both the House and Senate as is predicted, she will effectively be blocked from doing a lot of the things a "radical liberal" would want to do. Bring Admiral Stockdale out of the grave for a VOTE GRIDLOCK! campaign.

And on the flipside, if Trump wins, that is a decent signal the GOP may control all 3, and you people in the middle know that's a bad outcome.

I guess that's too in the weeds and predicated on certain dominoes falling, but the math suggests there's almost no chance the Dems take the WH + House + Senate, so the liberal agenda will be unable to make any real change, but the flipside scenario could happen, and that should scare a lot of centrists, even right-leaning ones.

Ben E Lou 10-31-2024 07:14 AM

A friend of mine from the conservative Evangelical world has been making essentially that exact argument in a micro sense for a while now regarding abortion, telling anyone who’ll listen that it’s ok to vote for Harris (and iirc he was saying this back when Biden was still the candidate) even if you’re pro-life because there’s so little that she can do to implement her beliefs in that arena.

Brian Swartz 10-31-2024 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum
Trumps support has a hard ceiling. I suspect these aren’t new voters but people who are voting early instead of Election Day. This election has always been about turn out for the dems.


I think it's about turnout for both sides. I don't think that hard ceiling is as low as you describe. Remember that more people - by % of eligible voters not just by number - voted Trump in '20 than in '16. Early voting is definitely something that skewed Democrat last time around.

Agree with Ben that we don't really know what it means yet, but I wouldn't dismiss it that readily.

Edward64 10-31-2024 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3447008)
A friend of mine from the conservative Evangelical world ...


I have an Evangelical friend. We have breakfast 2-3 times a year and talk about life and politics. Booked breakfast next Sat after elections to chat.

Hope we have a declared (and accepted) winner by then :)

Ksyrup 10-31-2024 08:24 AM

The reason I think we're screwed is that I have been seeing the same types of voters interviewed on national news for months - It's many types of people, but I'm going to focus on the minority voter who looks past all of Trump's issues to focus solely on the economy. It's pretty consistent. Whether it's an A-A voter interviewed shortly after Trump made infammatory comments about "black jobs" or a PR voter interviewed in the aftermatch of this recent rally.

There's two things with this that strike me - the economy is not that bad, especially considering we've come out of a pandemic and when compared to other similar nations. I know people don't want to hear that, but prices rise, and will continue to rise, inflation or not. This is from an Atlantic article in July:

Quote:

When inflation was at its worst, in late 2021 and 2022, prices were rising too fast for workers’ pay to keep up. Over the course of 2023, however, the rate of inflation plummeted while wages kept rising. According to calculations by the economist Arindrajit Dube, prices rose about 20 percent from the beginning of the pandemic to the end of 2023—but the median worker’s hourly wages had increased by more than 26 percent. In other words, a dollar in 2024 might not go as far as a dollar in 2019, but today the average worker has so many more dollars that they can afford a higher quality of life.

People have short memories and also don't want to see the truth, IMO. Things sucked really bad a couple of years ago, and they were much better 6-8 years ago, but they seem perfectly willing to ignore (a) the pandemic or (b) the reality of the last 18 months or so. It's maddening.

The other issue is this ridiculous idea that Donald Trump is a savvy business genius. I saw some comments from a producer of The Apprentice apologizing for perpetuating Trump's image as a business genius because none of it was true, of course. But time and time again, people being interviewed simply say, "the economy sucks and Trump has the business acumen to fix it." And neither of those things are true!

cartman 10-31-2024 08:33 AM

so Trump said he will protect women, and I quote "Well, I’m going to do it, whether the women like it or not" Sure fits in his pattern of doing things whether the women liked it or not.

Ksyrup 10-31-2024 08:35 AM

On the economy, here's this as well from the WSJ:

Quote:

With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate. More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn’t come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive.

Edward64 10-31-2024 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447017)
There's two things with this that strike me - the economy is not that bad, especially considering we've come out of a pandemic and when compared to other similar nations. I know people don't want to hear that, but prices rise, and will continue to rise, inflation or not. This is from an Atlantic article in July:


re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.

Lathum 10-31-2024 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3447020)
re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.


None of which the president controls yet gullible morons will pick Trump despite all the warning signs because he tells them he will end income tax through tariffs and they believe him instead of the 23 nobel prize winning economists.

Lathum 10-31-2024 08:43 AM

Mike Johnson walking back his comments about ending Obamacare. I guess someone told him tens of millio0ns of GOP supporters depend on it. What is going to be funny is when Trump at his next rally says they are going to end it.

Ghost Econ 10-31-2024 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3447020)
re: inflation and the quote.

Don't have the stats but don't think wages have kept up with housing/rent. And I'm guessing not for autos either (other than for the budget models), nor for colleges.


So the argument is vote for the slumlord who wants to cut regulation and worker protections, stop the proliferation of American electronic vehicles, and close the Department of Education?

The fact centrists are this dumb is astounding.

Edward64 10-31-2024 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ (Post 3447024)
So the argument is vote for the slumlord who wants to cut regulation and worker protections, stop the proliferation of American electronic vehicles, and close the Department of Education?

The fact centrists are this dumb is astounding.


Nope. Just stating the Atlantic quote does not tell the full story re: inflation. Wages may have kept up with some part of the economy, but don't think it has for housing/rent, autos and colleges.

GrantDawg 10-31-2024 09:55 AM

And people do NOT pay attention to politics. People pay attention to there check book. When something affects that negatively, they blame whoever is in charge, whether that is fair or not. People bring home more money and can do less with it. I know. I am people.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Kodos 10-31-2024 10:06 AM

I am strong
I am invincible

RainMaker 10-31-2024 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3447003)
What incumbent party has performed better?


Our neighbors to the north and south in recent elections.

Atocep 10-31-2024 10:35 AM

Elon's PAC was subcontracting out his door canvassing operation. The company doing it had people sign NDA's and initially didn't tell people being hired that they would be canvassing for Trump. They also set benchmarks of 1000 doors per week and 17-22% engagement. If those metrics weren't met the employees would have to pay for their own lodging and flights home.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447031)
Our neighbors to the north and south in recent elections.


The most recent poll of Canada has the conservatives up 2-1 over the liberals. Everyone is expecting Trudeau to get crushed next year.

Brian Swartz 10-31-2024 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
Just stating the Atlantic quote does not tell the full story re: inflation. Wages may have kept up with some part of the economy, but don't think it has for housing/rent, autos and colleges.


This. Most of it isn't Biden's/Democrats fault. They're still going to get blamed for it by many voters. That's the way it works, just like the 'fierce urgency of now' when Obama was elected. No Republican ever would have won in 2008, and the main reason for that is the economy was perceived to be bad (it was).

When a sizable minority of voters literally can't name the three branches of government, you can't expect a majority of them to be sophisticated enough to grasp what the true economic picture is, the causes of such, who to blame for it, etc. This is part of the 'price of freedom'. If you want democracy, this is part of the price you pay. Stupid questions, stupid answers, stupid prizes, and all the rest.

RainMaker 10-31-2024 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3447021)
None of which the president controls yet gullible morons will pick Trump despite all the warning signs because he tells them he will end income tax through tariffs and they believe him instead of the 23 nobel prize winning economists.


Trump's plan is comically bad but the idea the President doesn't have any options is silly (even Kamala is running on some vague plans to reduce prices).

Antitrust would be the easiest method to break up all the monopolies which is a big reason why prices have risen. A powerful FTC to target companies colluding to reduce pay and increase prices helps too. No need to make new laws for this method either, just enforce the one's on the books. And if you want to get into laws, restrictions on foreign ownership of property/land and raising the minimum wage are quite popular.

Then you have opening the market up to bring prices down. Chinese companies make incredibly cheap electric cars that would help adoption in this country immensely. But American car companies want to sell big trucks and luxury sedans so we have to ban the cheap stuff in an anti-capitalist move. You can do something similar with prescription drugs and increase the supply of doctors to bring health care costs down dramatically.

No silver bullet but there are a lot of little ways to hit it. She can't run on them or implement them because of her corporate donors. Trump's ideas are of a 5th grade understanding of economics, but at least he's offering something to people struggling instead of telling them that they are actually doing good and just don't appreciate it.

Mota 10-31-2024 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3447035)
The most recent poll of Canada has the conservatives up 2-1 over the liberals. Everyone is expecting Trudeau to get crushed next year.


Canadian, can confirm. Liberal party is about to get obliterated. 3.2% annual population growth (USA is around 1.1%) which is 99% due to immigration is their downfall. Housing crisis, health care crisis, all compounded by about 1.2 million more people in the country per year. 42 mil total population so you can imagine how this can effect things. Youth unemployment is 15% because they are competing against so many newcomers.

PilotMan 10-31-2024 12:55 PM

If anyone is curious as to the direction that the country is heading with the Rs in charge they only need to look to Mexico. A country with a comically weak central government that is held hostage financially by an extremely lucrative drug trade that benefits local politicians and the economy by bringing in tons of cash. The state level reps are bought and paid for my local interests, and they dictate the terms to the central government.

We'll likely see the rise of local 'warlords' and militias in the US to the extent that they lay 'claim' to wide swaths of land. The state will look the other way, and the federal government will fail to both exercise its power and argue about whether or not they can actually do anything to stop it.



Russia will seek to have these separatists declared the true patriots, and have them protected at the international level, while seeking to supply them and act as the propaganda arms. If the US aggressively challenges them, we'll be called 'non-democratic' and no better than any other country that seeks to 'muzzle free speech'.



This will continue to fracture the federal system, state level forces will work in conjunction and try and look out for the bulk of the population, but will lose control if they cannot comply with separatists. The rise of regional skirmishes and border disputes will happen.



This won't seem like a problem for most of the US where status quo will feel almost normal, but it will be very obvious that it's not the world we grew up with, and foreign forces will continue to work to destabilize the country from within.



This feels very possible, and remains my impression, of where the country heads to as the central government continues to weaken and cede power to the states, and leaders take charge who are willingly giving that away.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 01:10 PM

lol

Deb Fischer's closing ad features video of New England, not Nebraska.

Someone googled NE town.

Edward64 10-31-2024 01:54 PM

Interesting take on PA but no idea how valid the conclusion is.

MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting
Quote:

“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster,” tweeted Mike Cernovich on Wednesday. “Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”

Cernovich is a longtime far right gadfly and commentator with a massive online following.
Quote:

When a follower questioned his assessment, Cernovich pointed out that conservative organizer Charlie Kirk, who he called “one of the most significant [get out the vote] activists in the country,” had also raised the alarm.

“Early vote has been disproportionately female,” tweeted Kirk earlier Wednesday. “If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.”

Thomkal 10-31-2024 02:06 PM

lawyer Ken Cheseboro, architect of the fake electors plot, got his license suspended and likely will be disbarred in NY. Happy Halloween!

GrantDawg 10-31-2024 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3447056)
Interesting take on PA but no idea how valid the conclusion is.

MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting



Is there any way we can have like a early Superbowl in between a live lingerie pillow fight broadcast all day on election day?

Ksyrup 10-31-2024 02:19 PM

Since it's coming from the far right social media types, I can only assume it's being done to try to push reticent male voters to vote on Tuesday by planting a potentially false bit of news that Trump is in danger of losing unless men save the day, just to ring as many votes out of a dependable demographic as possible.

It's an easily targetable demographic since it's true that men favor Trump, so arguing women are going to push Harris to victory rings true even if they have no hard evidence to support the claim.

cuervo72 10-31-2024 02:21 PM

It's Going to Take a Constant Fight to Preserve the Historical Record

Quote:

The National Archives museum, under Biden-appointed U.S. Archivist Colleen Shogan, has been working to reshape its narrative of American history in order to make white conservatives more comfortable. The Journal describes a pattern of efforts over time to shape exhibits to better fit right-wing narratives of U.S. history. The museum has removed references to Martin Luther King Jr., Japanese internment, Native Americans, union organizers, and birth control, because presenting American history honestly would make Republicans upset.

The changes are remarkable. A photo of King was replaced with one of Richard Nixon meeting Elvis Presley. A “proposed exhibit exploring changes to the Constitution since 1787,” including “amendments abolishing slavery and expanding the right to vote,” was reduced in size, and employees were told that “focusing on the amendments portrayed the Founding Fathers in a negative light.” Shogan “told employees to remove Dorothea Lange’s photos of Japanese-American incarceration camps from a planned exhibit because the images were too negative and controversial, according to documents and current and former employees” and her aides “also asked staff to eliminate references about the wartime incarceration from some educational material.” An exhibit on coal communities “cut references to the environmental hazards caused by the mining industry.” Shogan’s aides “also ordered the removal of labor-union pioneer Dolores Huerta and Minnie Spotted-Wolf, the first Native American woman to join the Marine Corps, from the photo booth, according to current and former employees and agency documents.” A photo of Betty Ford wearing an Equal Rights Amendment pin was removed, and in an exhibit of “patents that changed the world,” the birth control pill was replaced with, of all things, the bump stock.

The explicit justification here was that the facts would hurt the feelings of guests who didn’t want to hear about union organizers and Native Americans. Visitors shouldn’t “feel confronted,” the Archivist said, but rather “welcomed.” Of course, Japanese Americans or Native Americans are unlikely to feel “confronted” by exhibits on their history, so the archivist was clearly referring to making white conservatives feel more at ease. In fact, an employee was specifically “told to look for success stories about white people.” And, looking over an exhibit about westward expansion, Shogan asked a staffer “Why is it so much about Indians?”

"Facts would hurt the feelings of guests."

Edward64 10-31-2024 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3447060)
Is there any way we can have like a early Superbowl in between a live lingerie pillow fight broadcast all day on election day?


How about just declare voting day a public holiday and have college football all day long?

RainMaker 10-31-2024 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3447050)
If anyone is curious as to the direction that the country is heading with the Rs in charge they only need to look to Mexico. A country with a comically weak central government that is held hostage financially by an extremely lucrative drug trade that benefits local politicians and the economy by bringing in tons of cash. The state level reps are bought and paid for my local interests, and they dictate the terms to the central government.

We'll likely see the rise of local 'warlords' and militias in the US to the extent that they lay 'claim' to wide swaths of land. The state will look the other way, and the federal government will fail to both exercise its power and argue about whether or not they can actually do anything to stop it.

Russia will seek to have these separatists declared the true patriots, and have them protected at the international level, while seeking to supply them and act as the propaganda arms. If the US aggressively challenges them, we'll be called 'non-democratic' and no better than any other country that seeks to 'muzzle free speech'.

This will continue to fracture the federal system, state level forces will work in conjunction and try and look out for the bulk of the population, but will lose control if they cannot comply with separatists. The rise of regional skirmishes and border disputes will happen.

This won't seem like a problem for most of the US where status quo will feel almost normal, but it will be very obvious that it's not the world we grew up with, and foreign forces will continue to work to destabilize the country from within.

This feels very possible, and remains my impression, of where the country heads to as the central government continues to weaken and cede power to the states, and leaders take charge who are willingly giving that away.



QAnon for libs

RainMaker 10-31-2024 03:14 PM

hxxps://www.ettingermentum.news/p/why-the-polls-may-be-underestimating

Substack seems to cause issues on the forum but I think that link is interesting and sort of feel that way. I just don't see the effects of Dobbs going away after 2 years. I think there are some polling issues and too many outlets either herding or changing their methods to account for previous misses. Maybe Trump changes that landscape as opposed to a midterm, but the consensus from media poll watchers was way off in 2022.

I think it's impossible to call the race. My gut says she pulls out the PA, MI, WI trifecta to win. Although I think Michigan is a huge wildcard since they have a very large youth and Arab vote that Biden relied on in 2020. It was an enormous risk to abandon them in hopes you could lure enough neocons over but maybe they have the data showing that'll work. Pretty much any result with any of the swing states wouldn't surprise me at this point. Almost any scenario would make sense.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3447056)
Interesting take on PA but no idea how valid the conclusion is.

MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting


That's a good example of GOP vs. Dem. The Dem get out the vote people are largely nameless and not doing a lot of media because they are getting out the vote. The GOP get out the vote people are more focused on social media than getting out the vote.

GrantDawg 10-31-2024 03:53 PM

Joe Biden has the opportunity to do the funniest thing...


Elon Musk Could Have US Citizenship Revoked If He Lied on Immigration Forms | WIRED

cartman 10-31-2024 04:20 PM

lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes

Lathum 10-31-2024 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3447077)
lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes


I hope the judge tosses it and forces Trump to pay the CBS legal fees.

RainMaker 10-31-2024 04:50 PM

Florida man suing a New York company registered out of Deleware in the Northern District of Texas. What a country!

Qwikshot 10-31-2024 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3447077)
lol, he's suing CBS for $10 billion because he says they deceptively edited the Kamala interview for 60 Minutes


He's grasping at straws. I fully expect if he loses to run to a non-extradition nation and tweetshit for the rest of his sad (hopefully short) life.

Dependent on how things play out, if Democrats get a majority however slight in both houses, I fully expect him to go apopletic about fraud and how his true believers should resist.

If the Trumpanzees gets either house, I fully expect sabotaging any sort of progress at the bequest of Orange Shitler.

If I'm reading things right there are 33 seats open in 2026 in the Senate; 39 in the House.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 04:56 PM

Either he loses and drops the case or he wins and this may be the first step in Orbanizing the media.

RainMaker 10-31-2024 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3447082)
Either he loses and drops the case or he wins and this may be the first step in Orbanizing the media.


It's the latter. Elon sued Media Matters and advertiers in the same district and has gotten a bunch of favorable rulings.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 05:28 PM

But he has to win on Tuesday for it to work that way.

GrantDawg 10-31-2024 06:43 PM

This seems fine. No problem here.

thesloppy 10-31-2024 06:59 PM

It is pretty incredible how much legit election interference the people 'concerned with' election interference have accomplished in the past few election cycles.

Atocep 10-31-2024 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3447091)
It is pretty incredible how much legit election interference the people 'concerned with' election interference have accomplished in the past few election cycles.


This is the obvious direction we were headed in. I won't be the least bit surprised if we see some legit election fraud come out of this election. I doubt it will be anything terribly wide scale, but I think we'll see more than we've ever seen. Trump and the right wing media has their supporters so wound up they'll think they're just evening the score with dem cheating.

Ksyrup 10-31-2024 07:43 PM

You mean like this?


Atocep 10-31-2024 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447095)
You mean like this?




Yeah it's going to get worse. I've already seen multiple situations where guys have tried to go at election workers for denying them voting because they tried to wear Trump shit while voting. We had the guy show up to an early voting location with a machete to intimidate Harris voters. Trump has been on social media telling people a guy tried to vote 2,500 times and got caught, which isn't at all what happened.

kingfc22 10-31-2024 08:14 PM

It’s incredibly sad to see how one fucked up individual, Trump, has single handedly rotted the entire democratic process and norms. And for what?

I guess 250 years is a good run in the grand scheme of things historically speaking. Dominant countries/kingdoms/etc don’t stay that way forever.

RainMaker 10-31-2024 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22 (Post 3447103)
It’s incredibly sad to see how one fucked up individual, Trump, has single handedly rotted the entire democratic process and norms. And for what?

I guess 250 years is a good run in the grand scheme of things historically speaking. Dominant countries/kingdoms/etc don’t stay that way forever.


This stuff sucks but come on. We haven't exactly been bastions of democracy over the past 250 years.

JPhillips 10-31-2024 08:27 PM

Trump can win, but I think I'd rather be Harris than him at the moment. She has a lot more resources, both people and money, committed to getting out the vote. The big worry is what GOP legislators and SCOTUS are willing to do to see Trump win.

RainMaker 10-31-2024 09:26 PM

This would seem to be good news for Dems.


RainMaker 10-31-2024 11:20 PM

And more good news for the Dems as Marist is one of the best polls there is. Crazy that the polls show they trust Trump a little more on the economy and all they've done is run weird transgender ads in those states.


Young Drachma 11-01-2024 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447105)
This stuff sucks but come on. We haven't exactly been bastions of democracy over the past 250 years.


2000 is proof positive.

Edward64 11-01-2024 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447095)
You mean like this?


Good thing they had the video surveillance. Hope he/accomplices end up spending some prison time.

JPhillips 11-01-2024 06:42 AM

Quote:

Trump on Liz Cheney: "Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face."

Probably better if a candidate didn't have firing squad fantasies.

Lathum 11-01-2024 06:44 AM

something something turn down the rhetoric....



GrantDawg 11-01-2024 07:07 AM

As for the house races:


Ksyrup 11-01-2024 07:52 AM

Quit getting my hopes up! I'm fully in "expect the worst, crack a smile at could have been even more catastrophic" mode.

I guess there's always the fact that no matter how positive Tuesday may be, I still have the aftermath between Tuesday and early January to ground me in the realization that we're fucked one way or the other.

albionmoonlight 11-01-2024 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447062)
Since it's coming from the far right social media types, I can only assume it's being done to try to push reticent male voters to vote on Tuesday by planting a potentially false bit of news that Trump is in danger of losing unless men save the day, just to ring as many votes out of a dependable demographic as possible.

It's an easily targetable demographic since it's true that men favor Trump, so arguing women are going to push Harris to victory rings true even if they have no hard evidence to support the claim.


It is a very common technique. Pretty much every fundraising email/text/ad I see is from a Democrat saying that they are behind 47% to 48%. Close enough that I don't get discouraged. But still a point behind, so I can't afford to sit this one out.

So I suspect that some of this messaging is the same: Hey, we're down by 3 points in the 4th Quarter. We need y'all to show up on Tuesday!

But MAGA messaging, by and large, is all about showing strength. Trump is up by a billion. We have the votes, we just need to stop fraud, etc. Part of it is laying the groundwork for claiming fraud if he loses. Part of it is that his brand is strength and domination. We're winning by 49 points in the 4th quarter! Come join us on the sideline and be part of the rout!

So it is a little strange to see anyone on the right claiming that anything isn't going well.

Lathum 11-01-2024 07:54 AM

If Harris loses I think not picking Shapiro could be the reason why.

I get her not picking him at the time given the volatility of the Muslim vote but the campaign has basically ignored Muslims so if that was your plan why not have just picked him?

Ksyrup 11-01-2024 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3447145)
If Harris loses I think not picking Shapiro could be the reason why.

I get her not picking him at the time given the volatility of the Muslim vote but the campaign has basically ignored Muslims so if that was your plan why not have just picked him?


It'll be easy to pick certain things like this - or hell, Biden not giving it up months earlier - but first and foremost for me, I'm blaming Americans. Harris has not run a bad campaign. She's running against a guy who not only is showing a lot of the same aging/mental issues Biden was run out of the race for, but that's just the tip of the iceberg of his mountain of personal, character, and legal issues. The fact that it's even this close is not primarily the fault of the Harris campaign or any decisions she's made/not made.

But yeah, there's going to be a slew of over-analysis and specific post-mortem theories on how/why, etc., and some of that will certainly be valid in that they might have helped her eke out a thin win that she didn't get. But the bigger question is, how the hell did we get to where those slim margins mattered given her opponent?

Lathum 11-01-2024 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447147)
how the hell did we get to where those slim margins mattered given her opponent?


Because this is who we really are, at least half of us.

I have come to just accept that a large portion of the country either embraces his ideology or lacks the morals and enable it so eggs are thirty cents cheaper.

I truly will never understand how he has so much support, and IF we survive this chapter of our history this era will be looked upon along with the civil war as the most shameless time in our history.

albionmoonlight 11-01-2024 08:12 AM

Elections break brains.

Bush/Gore was a coin flip. Because Bush won, Karl Rove's scorched earth approach was "right." Had a few hundred votes gone a different way, Rove would have gone down as the guy who singlehandedly lost a winnable election after the Clinton impeachment.

This election looks like a coin flip. If Trump wins, the message will be to go all MAGA all the time. If Trump loses, the message will be that MAGA lost a winnable election.

All for the sake of how a few thousand ultra-low-information voters in the Midwest feel on Tuesday morning.

Lathum 11-01-2024 08:15 AM

I don't think there is one message. It depends on the tribe you belong to.

If you are MAGA and Trump loses it will be steal, steal, steal....if you are a dem it will be that enough sane Americans decided enough was enough.

Win or lose the narrative of this election will be about Trump.

Ksyrup 11-01-2024 08:44 AM

This is from today's Bulwark and echoes my posts yesterday about the economy:

Quote:

During the doldrum middle years of Biden’s term—when America was finally paying the piper for years of big-time pandemic spending, supply chains were struggling to unsnarl themselves, and inflation outpaced wage growth—the public rapidly soured on the president’s economic stewardship. But then, even as economic indicators improved rapidly through late 2023 and 2024, the public stayed sour. Having revised their opinions once, they proved reluctant to shift them again.

This incongruity between the economic vibes and the economic facts was notable even by this summer. But the economic outlook has improved so much since this summer that it’s genuinely remarkable now. From the month before the COVID pandemic began to this September, U.S. prices have increased by 21.4 percent, while U.S. wages have increased by 26.3 percent, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data last month by the Center for American Progress. This wage growth wasn’t clustered at the top, either: the biggest real-wages beneficiaries over the past four years have been low-wage workers.

Say these were the only economic facts you knew about the present moment. Four-and-a-half years ago, America was enjoying what Trump routinely calls “the greatest economy in the history of the world.” Since then, unemployment has remained historically low, the stock market is historically up, and while prices outstripped wages for a period, wages have now surged back into the lead. If you want, you can argue that this represents only modest progress. And as today’s job reports shows—with far less than expected gains caused, in part, by hurricanes and labor strikes—the long-term stability of this economy remains unknown.

But that’s true of any economy. And surely a modest improvement over what was previously the “greatest economy” ever is still a pretty good economy!

And now imagine someone told you that the intervening years also saw a global pandemic that killed seven million people, ground global commerce to a temporary standstill, and caused massive shocks up and down the economy that reverberated for years. Suddenly “modest improvements over the previous status quo” would start to look less like something to be cheerful about and more like a genuine triumph.

There’s a reason that heavy inflation kills voters’ economic confidence. The price tags on items at the grocery store do not include cheerful reminders that the buyer’s purchasing power is improving too. When prices go up, it feels like somebody out there must have fucked up. But when you get a raise, you don’t thank the macroeconomic environment; you congratulate yourself on a job well done.

Even granting this, though, it’s hard to shake the sense that many voters’ vibes about the state of the economy have gotten well and truly wack. My mind keeps straying back to a quote a small-town North Carolina realtor gave the New York Times back in August, explaining his economic grouchiness: “The last four years, I’ve paid more tax than I’ve ever paid.”

What’s so remarkable about this? Income tax rates have been annually decreasing in North Carolina. The reason this guy is paying more tax than ever is because he is making more money than ever. This isn’t just determination to see cloud rather than silver lining; this is grouching about the sunburn you got from all that economic sunshine.

You have to wonder: Is there more Team Harris could have done to win the messaging fight? She and her boss spent the back half of 2023 making the steel man case for Bidenomics—was it wise to give that argument up just when the economy was starting to roar again?

Ghost Econ 11-01-2024 08:50 AM

People don't understand that if you barely move to the next tax bracket that you don't actually lose money... and I mean people with degrees. Prices are higher, so the fact that the earnings outpace it doesn't translate because it still went up and they wanted it at the other price.

GrantDawg 11-01-2024 08:58 AM

I'm going to point this out again, it is more than just people not noticing. Lower income households' largest costs are housing, transportation, and food. Rent increases out strip inflation (30.4% increase since 2020). Food increased 6% higher than the rate of inflation. Vehicles are the only thing that did increase over inflation, but since interest rates have greatly increased, you are making a bigger car payment for a lesser car. These are the cost that make people feel the economy is worse, and for lower income, even with an increase in pay, they are not seeing it when balancing their check book.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

GrantDawg 11-01-2024 09:00 AM

Oh, and part of transportation cost is insurance, which is jumping many, many ti.es the most of inflation. Ours has gone up 20% per YEAR in the last two years.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

NobodyHere 11-01-2024 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3447155)
Oh, and part of transportation cost is insurance, which is jumping many, many ti.es the most of inflation. Ours has gone up 20% per YEAR in the last two years.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk


Have you been shopping around for different insurance quotes?

I've been switching companies pretty much every time my company raises my rates(which has been at least once a year) and I've always been able to find a better deal among one of the big companies.

QuikSand 11-01-2024 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3446981)
But that's not what he actually says, even in the video you posted. ...

I recognize it's already over, and it's been grabbed by the zeitgeist. But what really happened does feel like it ought to count for something.

Scott Adams has been really big on this, calling certain things a "hoax" in a specific way - when the story doesn't match the underlying action/statement, for political reasons. ...

It was an unwise choice of words, delivered poorly, but Biden was genuinely saying that the only garbage was Trump's supporter's garbage. Not the Trump supporters.


So, on this matter of "deliberate misquote to help make a political point" ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3447137)
Probably better if a candidate didn't have firing squad fantasies.


...we have another qualifier here. The Trump quote in full context is pretty clearly him criticizing pro-war candidates who never have to feel any consequences of the war. Suggesting that a Congressional rep should personally be put onto the front lines is again a pretty absurd argument, but he was calling for a reality check among those voting to engage in wars, not for a firing squad to execute political opponents.

But if you (I don't mean the poster here, much more likely the author of the source item he quoted above) selectively excise specific lead-in words from the quote you use and share (as was the wave yesterday on this) it sounds like he wants Liz Cheney murdered and that's awful, so... we print the legend because it makes orange man look bad.

Yuck.

cuervo72 11-01-2024 09:51 AM

I mean, the target didn't exactly appreciate it:


Atocep 11-01-2024 10:38 AM

Are these Epstein recordings the recording the right was afraid of? Crazy that Trump's connections to him haven't been absolutely hammered.

QuikSand 11-01-2024 10:38 AM

and like Scott Adams, she's pot committed now, so can't just step out of it and call it like it is... (I only have the luxury of my p.o.v. because hardly anyone gives a f what I think and I'm not telling people anyway)

cuervo72 11-01-2024 11:04 AM

Well, let's go with "body of work" then. (There's "taken in context" of what specifically was said, and "taken in context" with everything he has said and done. The latter of which everyone is usually too ready to waive off.)

x.com

I don't know that I can recall any calls for L. Graham to be placed at gunpoint, and he's not exactly a dove.

RainMaker 11-01-2024 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3447159)
Are these Epstein recordings the recording the right was afraid of? Crazy that Trump's connections to him haven't been absolutely hammered.


They can't because they wanted Bill Clinton to speak at the convention for some reason.

GrantDawg 11-01-2024 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3447156)
Have you been shopping around for different insurance quotes?

I've been switching companies pretty much every time my company raises my rates(which has been at least once a year) and I've always been able to find a better deal among one of the big companies.

Sadly, yes. Every quote we got would have been much, much more than the increase. Companies like Geico and Progressive was double what we are paying now. It is insanity. No accidents, no tickets, absolutely no reason on our part.

Lathum 11-01-2024 11:31 AM

Remember, we can't call them garbage....

Halloween parade faces backlash over float depicting Trump leading Harris in chains

Arles 11-01-2024 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447117)
This would seem to be good news for Dems.



This is coming from a Harris voter, but early voting leans very heavily democrat in most areas. Many republicans don't trust that newfound tech gadget called the Post Office.

RainMaker 11-01-2024 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3447148)
Because this is who we really are, at least half of us.

I have come to just accept that a large portion of the country either embraces his ideology or lacks the morals and enable it so eggs are thirty cents cheaper.

I truly will never understand how he has so much support, and IF we survive this chapter of our history this era will be looked upon along with the civil war as the most shameless time in our history.


He won no matter the election results. He took over both parties in this country. Not only does he completely control the Republican Party, the Democrats are now running on his policies from 8 years ago. Both sides have devolved into conspiracy nuts that focus on anything but actual policy.

I think he'll be horrible for the country just like you, but I don't get the self-righteousness over him. In 8 years, the Democrats will be running on the policies he is pushing today. Just like how the Democrats are running on Bush-era neoconservativism that was hated at the time.

And I don't think it's difficult to see why people support him. It's the same for any authoritarian leader with popular support. The opposition abandons the people and they look anywhere for help.

People are struggling in a lot of ways (student debt, housing, health care, wages, etc). Trump is saying he will help them. He won't, but he's at least acting like he cares which to some people gives them hope. The Democrats are trying to convince people that they are in fact doing well and just don't realize it. Call them dumb or evil or whatever makes people feel better, but it's the natural result of when people are struggling and only one side is throwing out a reason and solutions.

Lathum 11-01-2024 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447169)

People are struggling in a lot of ways (student debt, housing, health care, wages, etc). Trump is saying he will help them. He won't, but he's at least acting like he cares which to some people gives them hope. The Democrats are trying to convince people that they are in fact doing well and just don't realize it. Call them dumb or evil or whatever makes people feel better, but it's the natural result of when people are struggling and only one side is throwing out a reason and solutions.


It is almost as if the left has put out policies to try and fix all those concerns and the right stonewalls them every chance they get.

It also isn't just about domestic policy. Trump will cater to dictators and allow them to do whatever they want while isolating us from traditional allies.

He is as dangerous as they come.

GrantDawg 11-01-2024 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3447160)
and like Scott Adams, she's pot committed now, so can't just step out of it and call it like it is... (I only have the luxury of my p.o.v. because hardly anyone gives a f what I think and I'm not telling people anyway)

Yeah, again people just ignore context of statements. What things like this does is gives permission for people to ignore the actual horrible and inflammatory things he absolutely meant.

RainMaker 11-01-2024 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3447170)
It is almost as if the left has put out policies to try and fix all those concerns and the right stonewalls them every chance they get.

It also isn't just about domestic policy. Trump will cater to dictators and allow them to do whatever they want while isolating us from traditional allies.

He is as dangerous as they come.


What policies have the Democrats fought for? Because I think people are catching on to the vague promises and then always coming up just a few votes short and saying "oh shucks". And then taking in a fuckton of money from corporate donors that didn't want that passed in the first place.

Take minimum wage for example. We could have raised it in 2021. An actual historic policy victory you could claim in the next campaign and lure in working class voters. Kamala Harris is the person who blocked that.

They have identical foreign policy stances too. Ukraine is where they differ and I'm still not convinced that Trump will pull funding because of the grip that the defense industry has on our country. Foreign policy under Biden has been much more reckless than it was under Trump so I'll just disagree on who's more dangerous in that regard. I just don't subscribe to the neocon belief.

JPhillips 11-01-2024 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3447157)
So, on this matter of "deliberate misquote to help make a political point" ...



...we have another qualifier here. The Trump quote in full context is pretty clearly him criticizing pro-war candidates who never have to feel any consequences of the war. Suggesting that a Congressional rep should personally be put onto the front lines is again a pretty absurd argument, but he was calling for a reality check among those voting to engage in wars, not for a firing squad to execute political opponents.

But if you (I don't mean the poster here, much more likely the author of the source item he quoted above) selectively excise specific lead-in words from the quote you use and share (as was the wave yesterday on this) it sounds like he wants Liz Cheney murdered and that's awful, so... we print the legend because it makes orange man look bad.

Yuck.


Maybe not firing squad, but I think it's very fair to say this was a murder fantasy. Nine guns pointed at her face? That's a lot more specific and intentional than something like, let's see how she liked being on the front lines.

RainMaker 11-01-2024 12:35 PM

We absolutely must show more respect to the lady who helped kill a million innocent civilians so her family's business could profit.

Good lord, out of all the terrible shit he says, why focus on the one thing that he is actually right about? He's baiting you into defending Liz Cheney of all people.

JPhillips 11-01-2024 12:38 PM



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