I'm not 100% sure, but with that kind of precision, I am guessing actual results.

Biden significantly underperformed everywhere. So did Clinton.

So does Trump just have the secret sauce to constantly beat his polls? Or have the pollsters finally corrected for the Trump effect? Or did Trump used to have a secret sauce that J6 and Dobbs have taken away?

Lots to learn.

I don't understand how campaigns can so openly lie in their fundraising pitches. I got one from Trump today claiming there was a 1500% match for any donation.

By who, that has to be disclosed? What about the contribution cap?

I know I shouldn't be, but it never ceases to shock me how openly brazen they have become about subverting democracy

NEW: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris said last night that North Carolina legislators should consider awarding their state's electors to Donald Trump before votes are counted, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. https://t.co/1RUMQvLqDw pic.twitter.com/QES6fyXJHC

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 25, 2024

Where are you seeing current vote totals?

In the Ralston tweet, it is not saying that all GOP candidates are currently ahead by 18,000 votes - it is saying that registered GOP voters have submitted 18,000 more ballots than registered DEM voters. Many of those voters may have crossed over and voted for the other party candidates and there are many Independent and Unaffiliated voters that are not considered in that margin.

Official results are never released until after the elections end and often not for many days afterwards.

Yeah so we have people going to jail/about to go on trial for false electors in 4 states right now, but sure why not more? Also, this guy would have never suggested this if the hard hit counties were Democratic leaning.

He was impeached. McConnell said he was responsible. He then voted against conviction, saying the criminal courts ought to handle it.

As much of a partisan asshole as McConnell was, I really do believe he and others were (and are) loathe to marry politics and criminality in a partisan setting because of the precedent. I think they were concerned that politics going forward would devolve into each party in power criminally charging their opponents whether or not they had justification.

The irony here, of course, if that Trump actually committed crimes and will, if elected again, do exactly what McConnell didn't want to see happen. The real issue is that we've allowed a Trump figure to take over a party, which would then give rise to an actual reason for criminal charges. But I think McConnell correctly surmised that once it happens, there won't necessarily be any reason for hope that the next criminal charges will be justified.

And the further irony is that his SC largely gutted the charges against Trump. But I really do think McConnell would have been happy to see Trump go down. He was just too much of a "party over country" guy to call it out in real time and, you know, lead. He tried - a little. A few of them did, right after J6. They made some pretty direct statements about Trump's responsibility, found that they polled about as well as a fart in church with their constitutents (McConnell was censured by a couple of local KY GOP organizations), and either publicly reversed course (Kevin McCarthy, Nikki Haley) or just faded into the hedge like Homer Simpson (Mitch).

Dems would need to pull themselves out of the devastation by the bootstraps to find a polling location. Plenty of thoughts and prayers though.

Newspapers refusing to endorse Harris because they are scared of the repercussions to their business is a very bad sign of how things will go if Trump wins.

I think I saw the same from the LA Times and an editor resigned.

I hope someone on this board can tell me whether this from Trump is something I should worry about.

Several have and they have had thousands of canceled subscriptions.

I'm going to resign my position of Corrupt Election Official before January just to be safe.

Dola- Wapos editor just resigned.

Final NYT poll came out and it is tied. I think this breakdown kind of sums up the race. Harris has given up a big chunk of her base in the campaign and the hope is she can draw in more moderate Republicans and neoconservatives to make up for it. I personally don't understand the strategy but maybe they see something we don't.

Looking at the NYT poll crosstabs, the Kamala Harris under-performance is again with the low-propensity core Democratic leaning groups: She's at 81% with black voters (Biden won 92%), 52% with Latinos (Biden won 59%), 55% with under-30s (Biden won 59%). pic.twitter.com/Y2HnRrmYs6

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 25, 2024

And she is up double digits over Biden with white college grads. No clue how that plays out but I'm sure some math guru knows.

In today's average, Harris is leading 79%-16% w/ Black voters and 53%-42% w/ Hispanic voters, both of which would represent a double-digit Dem margin decline vs. '20. But she's leading 56%-41% w/ white college grads, which would be nearly twice Biden's '20 estimated margin.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2024

Massive voter registration fraud in PA. Looks like Scott Pressler's organization, although they haven't yet been named, was falsifying info on registrations.

All these resignations ... this could be the best single day for the quality of journalism in maybe forever.

The president of the leopards eating faces party is about to go through some things.

That's not something a real journalist would report about. Must be fake news.

I'm sure Garland will lay down the law.

He already has the strongly worded letter written.

It’s all lies all the time.

The 'Black Insurrectionist' was actually white. The deception did not stop there | AP News

More info on the Voter registration fraud in PA:


Massive Potentially MAGA Voter Registration Fraud Uncovered In Pennsylvania

.

5th Circuit says Mississippi can't count votes received after election day even though state laws gives five days so long as they are postmarked by election day.

Doesn't matter for MS results, but the speculation is this will spread quickly or get pushed to SCOTUS before the election.

I feel like if it goes to SC this is one ACB and Kavanaugh would side with the liberal justices.

We aren't getting near the volume of political ads as more competitive states (I was in NC earlier this week and it was ridiculous). That said, I'm being forced to watch James Comer commercials, so that's it's own special kind of hell. Especially when he's bragging about dragging drug company officials before his committee and "giving then a taste of their own medicine." He did jack shit to actually change anything related to drug prices. But he did successfully set up a narrative for his reelection campaign!

I'm not an attorney, but am pretty familiar with election law generally. This decision is, on its face, bananas. I realize that unqualified appointees (whose only merits were being young and conservative) tabbed for relatively low-level federal judge positions being rubber stamped by the Senate during Trump's first term was among the least sexy or momentarily outrageous things happening (and outrage fatigue is most definitely a thing), but... we are going to see horseshit jurisprudence like this for a generation.


i.e. elections have consequences

And hopefully one of those consequences is a return to more sane practices concerning the casting and counting of ballots.

I know it varies from state to state, but the practice of accepting mail-in ballots so long as the postmark is election day or prior has been standard since I was a kid at least.

You're correct, I misread that.

Trump is doing the greatest job of overpromise and underdeliver. The amount of things he has told people he'll do is virtually impossible to accomplish. No income tax is the new one? That's insane. Let's see how these tariffs go.
I do work for a Canadian company that sells product into the US, and I'm not looking forward to this.

But it's not a sane practice once the analysis established that it favors the opposition! Then it became a way to rig an election. Get your facts straight.

If I remember correctly, the House passed a voter's rights bill that would have made voting rules more consistent across the country and there were over 50 votes for it in the Senate, but the GOP Senators filibustered it and then it turned into another political noose for Biden over the use of the filibuster with Manchin and Sinema refusing to vote to abolish it. Which is fine, but you can guarantee that the GOP, with even a one vote majority in the Senate, are going to legislate like they have a filibuster proof majority.

Voted early today. Our location was packed all day according to poll workers.

dola

Hell of a closing argument.

Future elections will allow the party in power to allow for party voting at 'home' election locations up to 2 weeks prior to and counting election day. The party out of power will be at the mercy. Only allowing for in person, day of election voting, during a normal 8-12 and 1-5 times, and 1 location in each county, no matter the size. If the party in power elects to vote at said location, they will be allowed to move to the front of the line.



/s


It's all creative thinking, but there will be spin on something like this, because it's what the founding fathers wanted, and freedom, and it's what's best for the country.



Half the arguments for certain things we've seen since 2016 are just bonkers. But you've got more and more people who really, honestly, believe it's the truth. Controlling of education, controlling though. language and phrases that are unique to that group. All the building blocks are there for a long, dark, fall into authoritarianism.

I kind of feel like Musk sees trump as someone who would love to bring back a pre-Mandela era, of South African, rule to the US.

Don't forget David Sacks and Peter Thiel are from South Africa too. It's always been a model for a large number of people in this country.

“Temporary” hardship, right.

Definitely true. The sad part is it's also true of Democrats to a lesser degree.

I really don't worry that Trump is Hitler, but the right, including Trump and Vance, is full of people who would love to use Orban's Hungary as a model for the US.

Trump's interview on Rogan is yet another example of why his campaign is hiding him other than rallies and podcasts, etc. The guy just isn't all there anymore and I've even seen some on the right comment that Trump has definitely slipped mentally but they'll still be voting for him. Which proves that the right's issue with Biden had nothing to do with his age and mental acuity.

In addition to being hilarious, this ad probably captures Trump's current mental state better than any I've seen.

JD Vance did an interview prior to the rally saying that soon NYC won't feel American anymore.

Quite a rally going on. Lots of quality speakers.

Man thank god they are going full racist in the last days of the campaign

It's only going to serve to give me a neck strain from how hard I shake my head back and forth when Trump is declared the winner at 11:34pm on November 5th.

Wait till they see how many Puerto Ricans live in Pennsylvania.

Pretty much.

But don’t worry. You’re just taking this out of context/they didn’t really mean it/etc

One of the speakers at the Trump rally is a big wig in Scientology. All of the rogues and creeps are lining up behind Trump.

You know there is so much behind the scenes shady shit going on with these groups/people. Trump is promising all these people the moon and they are just being willfully ignorant to his empty promises of the past.

When asked about separating families through deportation, Trump's former head of ICE said this. They have no problem deporting US citizens.

Tell me again why I shouldn't be concerned for my daughter's safety.

So all around us in our neighborhood are Harris signs even though we live in a red city in a redder state. No Trump signs.

But we took our kid to a friend's house in the suburbs, and it was entirely Trump signs. Not the country, mind you, but your standard 800k-$1 mil brick houses. The first house as you get passed the pool even had a large cutout of trump in the front window. It's the same in my in-laws neighborhood

I was in deep red south Jersey yesterday and saw almost no Trump signs. I saw a lot of signs for down ballot candidates so people are putting them up, just not Trump ones.

There is one house in my neighborhood who does a cool Halloween display of Jack Skellington arching out over their front door. Even scarier was the Trump signs on the yard.

I live in North Fulton suburbs and it's probably 3-1 Harris-Trump sign ratio.

These folks in the neighborhood adjacent to mine saved a cheapo plastic sign for four solid years to do....this??? :lol::lol::lol:

When you can’t be bothered to get a new sign….and I guess you don’t give a crap about Vance either? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Pics taken on my dog walk this evening. For the record, definitely NOT a case of frugality out of necessity. This is a 5200-sqft home on 2.55 acres in a nice area.) pic.twitter.com/p9IqBs0Ek4

— Ben Lewis (@benelou) October 26, 2024

The only thing I hate more than Puerto Rico is buying new signs.

Maybe it's just that it's hard to get Trump signs.

There's an amusing couple of houses not far outside of the small city I live closest to. Scattered signs from some of their neighbors but mostly none. One of these two houses, right next to each other, is basically covered with Harris stuff and other downballot candidates, same for their neighbor with Trump, a dozen or more signs on each lawn. Both of them have a number of them right basically on the property line between their houses, staring at each other a couple feet away from their opposites if that.

It's as if everyone else nearby is just like ... you know, they are having their own war about this over there and they've pretty much got it covered. We don't really need to get into this ...

The daily show having Jordan Klepper go out to interview MAGA with LT Dangle from Reno 911 is amazing.

I know a guy with one of these except it just says "Trump 202" and then has a mailbox number sticker of "4" over where the "0" was.

Klepper is a genius and I look forward to this, but I also find myself just getting sad watching his stuff. Trump has broken so many peoples brains and they are never coming back

Without paying for them probably.

Yeah, it's all fun and games until he gets re-elected. You know we're a lost cause as a nation/society when demonstrating abject stupidity and illogical thinking makes not one bit of difference to 50% of the country.

It'd be cool to sell Trump signs and merchandise where the proceeds are secretly funneled to support Kamala.

Harris signs outnumber Trump signs 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 here in the Des Moines suburbs depending on where you go. Don't remember nearly this many signs in 2016 or 2020. I'm interested to see the last Selzer poll of Iowa this Sunday to see if she has it any closer than 2020's result of Trump +8. She's usually on the money with her last poll.

My theory is Trumpers don't want people to know it anymore. They're still voting for him, they just aren't going to be obvious about the support. Or maybe they don't really like him as much anymore, but not enough to vote for a *gasp* Democrat.

Could it also be that Dems are doing door to door canvassing this year and handing out the signs? I've never had a yard sign so I dont know how people get them. But in 2020 Dems weren't going door to door and in 2016 nobody was enthusiastic about either candidate.

There is a stigma to being a Trump supporter in a lot of suburbs. I see a handful of Trump signs in the Chicago burbs, but it's mostly Harris stuff. Almost all the Republican candidates run as "independents" too and don't mention being a Republican.

The one that really got me. A person I follow on Bluesky lives in North Georgia. He has a neighbor with a Harris sign, and a MTG sign. Explain that one!

Bipolar?

Tested something. Didn't work

So as I was getting the mail today, I realized that I had not gotten any political mail since the primaries here. In this county, all of the local races have already been decided with no competition (which sucks) but we have registered Republicans and Democrats in the house, so you think we would be getting something.

The Washington Post has lost 200,000 subscribers since they announced they wouldn't endorse a candidate. Real genius move by one of the few major newspapers still around.

Leopard eating the face. I have no clue how this election pans out but the most fitting result would be Harris winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but losing a close race in Michigan to cost herself the election.





The Trump camp says that his remarks weren't vetted, yet they were on a teleprompter. It was also reported that he wanted to call Harris the C-word and the campaing told him not to. That was too far, but insulting Blacks and Hispanics was fine.

Brilliant, since Cheney supports the Muslim ban, let's help the guy who created the Muslim ban.

In 2020, there was a house in my neighborhood that was QAnon come to life. There were flags and signs everywhere, and not just 'Trump - Pence' signs, but crazy conspiracy signs. This guy probably had 50 pieces of flair on and around his house and they stayed up until January 7th.

I ran by a couple weeks ago out of curiosity and there were only 2 signs up. One a Harris - Walz and one a Trump - Vance. In my head, the wife put her foot down. I got a chuckle out of it though.

On a sidenote, it was a totally different neighbor that was raided by the FBI & others for Oathkeeper January 6th reasons.

Don't forget the "Jews take your money" stuff too. Totally OK.

Harris is literally campaigning with Cheney this week.

They're still not the same person. She's not even on the ticket. Harris doesn't need to take on all of the positions of everyone she campaigns with.

And supports is not the same as created.

Elon Musk somehow getting himself right in the middle of MAGA, going on stage to do his version of the Dean scream, saying he's dark gothic MAGA, and jumping around like a dipshit on stage is where we're at now.

I think when you travel the country campaigning with someone, it goes beyond just some tepid support. People rightfully call out Trump for campaigning with Nazis and white supremacists. You are judged by the company you keep.

And yes, the Cheney's didn't create the Muslim ban. What Dick Cheney did is so much worse than anything Donald Trump has ever done.

I think the editorial stuff is kind of stupid but good lord that's some backlash.

200,000 Washington Post subscribers have canceled their subscriptions following report that Jeff Bezos blocked the editorial board presidential endorsement, per NPR

— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) October 28, 2024

I think you have it the wrong way, though - Harris isn't supporting Cheney for anything.

And agree on what Dick Cheney did being worse. But going down this road requires more nuanced (in that Liz Cheney is not Dick Cheney), and the reason these billboards don't go down this road is because simpler arguments are preferred, even if they make no sense - which was what I was lamenting in the first place.

I think you probably already explained the absence of it.

Based on your remark about the local races, I'm going to guess that you're in a non-competitive county, let's say at least 75-25 skew in one direction or the other.

At that point, and with campaigns knowing turnout history and such, it's simply not worth the investment. Both sides know with a pretty high degree of certainty what they're going to get out of the county & nothing they do is likely to change that significantly.

I don't watch a whole lot of live TV aside from sports, and have literally only seen two West Virginia commercials twice each in the last week, despite there being open governor, senate, and US House seats open. One for governor and one for senate, both GOP, and both fairly tame. Meanwhile, I cannot go one commercial break without seeing at least one Pennsylvania Senate or Presidential commercial and often see 3 or 4 back-to-back and they are brutal. Also see a fair amount of PA state senate and house commercials and some US house commercials (definitely more state ones, though).


Granted, I can see Pennsylvania from my back porch (don't mean to evoke Sarah Palin-Russia here) and I guess within the Pittsburgh market, but it is still shocking that I don't see more West Virginia ads during WVU games or Youtube viewing. I actually probably also see more North Carolina ads for governor, but I don't know if it is because I lived there and travel there relatively often or because the NC governor race has attracted a lot of outside money.

What's interesting about this story is this comment - which is the actual joke - has been scrubbed from nearly all of the more current articles (from today, not yesterday) I'm now seeing about this incident. I was trying to find the exact quote to tell my wife, and not one article I pulled up on Google mentioned it. They refer to an off-color joke, but then they focus almost exclusively on calling Puerto Rico a floating garbage island. That's not even a joke - that was just this dude piling on with a straight-up insult.

The pull-out/come joke is no longer being mentioned at all. I don't know if it's been scrubbed to make it seem less offensive, or if the sexual subject matter makes them hesitant to print it. Aside from the "garbage island" comment, at some point the watermelon carving is brought up, but buried deep in the articles. But that's it.

Correct that the billboards are simple. A more nuanced approach might point out that Liz Cheney supported the wars, defended birtherism, supported torture, and worked in the Bush administration. She started a racist PAC with Bill Kristol that was centered around Obama's "affinity for Muslims". Her sister calls her a carbon copy of her father and she is a direct beneficiary of the mass slaughter of innocent civilians in the Middle East.

Optics matter. If Kamala was campaigning with David Duke, I think people would find that distasteful too. You would likely see opposing campaigns bringing that up in black communities. And I think most people in here have condemned Trump for campaigning with white supremacists and bigots. There have been countless ads pointing that out.

So my question is, what is the purpose of this? What is the benefit from putting your campaign in the hands of Liz Cheney? A person who runs contrary to your strongest positions in this campaign (democracy, abortion, equal rights, racism).

None of that is out of character for Tony. I’m not sure if any of you have watched or listened to his podcast but they really hit the low hanging fruit of race and sexuality on it non stop. Even to him. He’s openly gay and they are pretty brutal towards him about it.

I mean didn’t he tear the whole room apart at the Tom Brady roast? He’s a vulgar comedian and that is either your thing or it isn’t. They knew what they were doing when they invited him.

Noticed this too. Whitewashing what was said seems to be a conscious choice by the media. And while the Latino quote wasn't as racist as the Puerto Rico jab, it was pretty fucking crude for a Presidential event.

I think all the "norms" stuff is silly but this was a press that had a meltdown over Michelle Wolf taking some jabs at Huckabee Sanders.

The limited amount might be a station avoidance thing.

Remember, stations have to give political candidates the "lowest unit rate" price. Stations in border areas can (and occasionally do) avoid accepting buys from outside their home area in order to prevent having their entire inventory swallowed up by political (which pays the least of any spot that airs)

A simplified explanation of the rule is that if you accept an ad for a race outside the market , then you must accept all ads for a race outside a marekt ... but if a station in this case said "we ain't taking anything state/local* from out of state" then it'd be a factor in limiting how much you see

*stations are required to accept ads for federal level races, even from outside their primary area

Hard to know what polling is accurate, but I can't see how a poll with Kansas at only +5 Trump can square with a national environment that's tied.

This feels like a bad omen.

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That's Future Secretary of the Treasury Elon Musk to you.