Oh yeah, and re: McD's. I mean, I had a job at BK in HS. How would I prove that? I don't put it on my resume. I doubt BK has records from 1990. I certainly don't have pay checks from then, or tax records. (Even worse would be my brief stint at Hechinger's. They no longer even exist!)

Going through my parents' belongings when they moved from TX to NC last year, I actually found a pay advice from my HS job at Big Star (a grocery store in GA at the time). But yeah, most people don't keep that kind of stuff.

I did disclose it on my bar application, but was never asked to substantiate my employment, thankfully - although I spent the better part of 3 years trying to prove a negative that I did not receive a speeding ticket when I got pulled over at some point in college (I regretted taking the bar and law school's advice to "over-disclose in an abundance of caution").

I currently have unclaimed funds sitting in CA that I can't claim. The address on it was one where I spent 3 weeks living with a former co-worker that let me stay in a spare room while I was apartment hunting. I never would have setup any utilities in my name there, and only received one, maybe two paychecks at that address. It is only $50, but I am not able to provide any proof that I am the proper claimant.

Big Star! We had one in walking distance as well as a Food Giant growing up. The Big Star always had the best giveaways. They would have these big bingo boards to win prizes, along with Green Stamps that my grandma collected. I believe it was Big Star that also had a horse racing game, where you would get a ticket with a horse and they would show the race on TV to see if you won. Then Food Giant had a football game with point spreads for prizes. The gambling push they put out when I was 10...

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I had so much fun with my best friend working at Big Star in HS. I have very fond memories of getting the stale baguettes from the bakery, going into the produce cooler, and working on our baseball skills with spoiled lemons and oranges.

I'm sure it's been a couple things since I left, but it's now a Fresh Market.

I live in a very red area and there are a lot of Trump signs, but I am seeing more Harris signs than Biden (didn't live here during Hillary)

What is interesting is there is a house I pass leaving my neighborhood that has had a Trump flag on their fence for a couple years. I noticed about a week ago it's gone. I assume it was probably stolen or blew away since I don't think anyone goes from flying the flag to not supporting him.

Trump spending a lot of time in North Carolina has to be a good sign for Harris.

I voted early today. Good to have that taken care of, just in case I get hit by a bus or something.

VOTER FRAUD!

The house at the main exit out of our neighborhood used to fly a huge Trump 2024 No More Bullshit flag. Like, several years ago, not in the run-up to the election this year. It's been gone for a year or more. He's technically in another subdivision than us so I don't know if their HOA made him take it down because of the profanity, or he just didn't want the hassle of being known as the village idiot. But he's got no signs up which is interesting.

This is the same guy who threatened a young boy whose dog peed on his lawn. Not pooped, peed. So yeah, he fits perfectly in the Trump demographic.

Did you vote for Kang?

Don't blame me; I voted for KODOS!

If you just look at the high-quality polls it's been Harris +3 nationally basically the entire time.

Nothing matters.

Either way, your planet is doomed!

Real voter fraud is in the nursing homes. We used to only have them vote if their BIMs said they were no more than mildly cognitively impaired. Now we have people coming in and helping residents with a BIMs of 0 vote.

To score a zero you have to not be able to repeat back 3 words said to you immediately after, not know what year, month, or day of the week it is or even be close, and you then aren’t able to recall the three words from the start even after being given cues. I bitched about this in 2022 though too.

Ut, oh.

I'm not sure about 4 years ago, but they definitely did that two years ago.

What people are coming in? And I don't mean "the party I like" or "the party I don't like" I mean are these family members or at least people who know them?

So it's 50/50 as to whether Trump can vote for himself?

No it’s usually volunteers. I’m pretty sure they call it the travel board that comes in and helps everyone vote at once.

In practical terms everyone just has one helper at a time in order to save time rather than the two you are supposed to have.

I mean it’s great for some of these people. We have some awesome people living in these homes that deserve a voice, but we also have people with profound dementia that really shouldn’t be sitting with someone and casting a ballot.

Sorry I didn't get to answer this for a while, life got busy!

I wanted to read the posts you referenced more clearly, since I couldn't quite figure out what in there points to the problem you have with a path to citizenship. You say you're in favor of legal immigration, great. I suspect we have differing ideas of what that looks like, but probably not relevant immediately.

The only thing I see which points to you having a problem with a path to citizenship is from your post #317:


Okay, now that I've kept that in mind, I'll call that racist. :p But seriously, it sounds like you advocate for a policy of "open it up" -- given that you have that philosophy, why does it even matter who's legal and who's illegal? And if you're saying "open it up, but none of them get citizenship" how is that not racist to say "you can live in MY country, but not actually be a part of it?" Before you get all defensive, keep in mind that your family probably came here from somewhere.

And yes, I support citizenship for whoever wants it.

I've begun the process of resigning myself to a second Trump presidency.

I'm not trying to be difficult, but is that actually fraud? If people are telling who to vote for, that's an obvious thing. But in terms of people not being mentally capable of voting intelligently or what-have-you, I don't think that's fraud unless there's something I don't understand.

Legally? Probably not. Though I'm not completely sure. Seniors can legally vote, even with dementia. There is no competency requirement. The question is, can someone really help someone vote when that person couldn't possibly know who they are voting for? Is that help or is someone helping themselves to a free extra vote?

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There was a time when this would have been a huge thing.

Trump’s own chief of staff, retired general John Kelly, agrees that Trump is a fascist. pic.twitter.com/8IfycmNhmw

— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) October 23, 2024

Yup.

Gotta wonder how many people are waiting to pull the plug until after the election. It’s certainly not zero.

pull what plug? you're scaring me

Senior voter fraud.

Depends on your definition I guess. But I honestly don’t know how someone that isn’t capable of filling out a food menu with the help of a nurses aide is capable of filling out a ballot with the help of a volunteer.

I don't know if anything is "moving the needle" this late in the game, but I found this interesting from the Bulwark:

Also, Aileen Cannon is on Trump's shortlist for AG. LOL?

This is related to the senior voter fraud conversation. For all of us that are caring for elderly parents especially those with various stages of dementia, this is a terrifying article.

Political fundraisers WinRed and ActBlue are taking millions of dollars in donations from elderly dementia patients to fuel their campaigns

This encapsulates Trump perfectly and also shows why this time around will be much worse. In 2016 there were adults in the room who would actually tell him something was a bad idea, unconstitutional, etc...This time around those guardrails will be gone.

We have this issue with my MIL. My FIL has taken her credit cards so she can't make any donations to new organizations, but anyone from the past has her card number on file and talk her into donating and then she's forgotten two minutes after the call ended.

We have this concern - although haven't found that he's done anything specific yet - with my dad post-TBI.

My wife's grandfather gave away most of his life's savings to tv preachers. He was a good businessman, but he fed off of Fox and Pat Robertson and kept sending checks to whatever right-wing grift sent him a letter.

Congressman Eric Swalwell out with an ad on Trump:"A Place for Trump"


x.com

NYT Headline: "Trump says Hitler did good things and wished he had generals like Hitler's. Why this is bad for the Harris campaign."

Jedi Mind trick "no corruption to see here" somehow works on close to 50% of the population.

This won't happen but the Dems should really go back to letting the Obama people run the party. This election should be a cakewalk for any competent campaign. They were really good on the analytical side and micro-targeting. Plus they had a much better grasp on what regular people wanted. And they knew how to just bury the shit out of mistakes their opponents made (binders full of women).

This Biden/Clinton regime of careerists running the party now are terrible. I've been bombarded with texts and e-mails from Liz Cheney. They had Walz stop doing the thing that made him so likeable. They aren't even attacking Trump for his Elon partnership. And they're scared of alienating Republicans by going too strong on the abortion/IVF stuff (it's insane they don't bring up the banning of IVF as a talking point every 5 minutes).

I don't think anything changes but they really need to bring in people outside the DC bubble who have a handle on what people want to hear. Just grab some of the folks who have run successful gubernatorial campaigns in the Midwest. Priitzker has a brilliant campaign team for instance. Same with Walz and Whitmer.

We now have Fox News defending Trump by saying that maybe he didn't know Hitler's generals were Nazi's.

We've gone from he's not really a Nazi to maybe he's just stupid so make sure you vote for him.

I thought David Plouffe was essentially running the Harris campaign, or at least has a high position.

The Qunnipiac polls that had Trump up by 4 in MI and 2 in WI two weeks ago now have Harris up by 4 in MI and tied in WI. These polls are just so all over the place.

So is the Nazi thing the October surprise? MAGAs on Twitter seem to think there's a really bad video to come out about Trump

There were some very fine people on both sides of the Holocaust.

October surprise?! Is the Nazi thing a surprise at all?

We've gotten to the point where - possibly - a fraction of 1% of the population might actually care that Trump specifically states that he admires Nazi's, but those same people didn't get that at all from dozens of speeches and comments where he said as much, although maybe not as explicitly?

There is something big coming down the pike. A bunch of big Trump followers are warning of an "AI" about to be released of Trump saying something he didn't. The "N" word tape maybe?

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Ah, Jas posted about it first.

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Welcome to trump land.

Where AI pics of him wading through floodwaters in Ashville carrying an armful of cats is obviously real and a recording of him saying something vile is AI generated.

Nah, they brought Plouffe in as an advisor but O'Malley runs the campaign. It was too late in the game to swap out a bunch of people so most of the Biden campaign team is still in their positions.

There have been stories floating that Plouffe has butted heads with the team. We'll probably find out more after the election when books are written. The recent stuff with her appearing on Stern and other podcasts feels like Plouffe. But he's way too smart for the other stuff they're doing.

I love that the people sharing AI pics of Trump helping hurricane victims want to make everyone aware of AI now.

Trump currently doing some kind of forum today claiming he talks to Bibi daily. He constantly is openly admitting to violating the Logan act and nothing is done.

It takes four years of investigation to bring charges on crimes that happened out in the open where everyone can see. Like election tampering and the January 6th attack. Maybe in 2027 they will assign someone to investigate.

Early rumor: The video is of Trump groping a minor at one of his donor parties.

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There is this story too. I know why they wouldn't do it but the Epstein stuff with Trump was such a huge mistake to avoid.

Donald Trump groped me in what felt like a ‘twisted game’ with Jeffrey Epstein, former model alleges | Donald Trump | The Guardian

This Tim Sheehy story is a shocker to me. In a normal world, lying like that should be disqualifying but he'll probably win anyway.

Edit: Apparently, this story has been out there since April at least but I never heard about it until this week.

Don't jump to any conclusions from early voting stats. But....
https://x.com/ElectProject/status/18...ikpHAvYRQ&s=19

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Trump has put most of his eggs into one basket. If men without a college degree show up, he can win, but they haven't in the past and he's got a poor ground game.

Do we know how that compares to previous elections?

In the comments to the tweet, someone said it was 56/42 in 2016 which doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. But who knows how much of an apples and oranges comparison it is.

Glad to have a discussion with you.

I am going to continue this in the Immigration thread, starting at #433

Biden's Immigration Reform - Page 9 - Front Office Football Central

Things are so weird.

Two of Trump's former high-ranking staff members just came out and said that he's a Hitler-loving fascist who will rule like a dictator.

And the media is speculating about whether a newsworthy October surprise will happen or not.

Which isn't even to blame the media so much as to note how much Trump changed our whole sense of what is and isn't newsworthy.

I'm not sure what they would even consider a surprise at this point. At least, concerning Trump. Maybe they're just waiting (hoping?) for something about Harris.

They will just make something up

The Harris campaign should already have ads out featuring Tucker Carlson's introduction of Trump as Daddy coming home to give his little girl a spanking and the crowd chanting DADDY DADDY as Trump comes out. Weird doesn't even describe it. Unsettling, disturbing, I don't know. WTF?

I hear/see a lot of things out there that give me optimism for the election. Guys in my age group that have never voted before in their lives, not sure they are finally motivated to vote because they like Trump. Lots of republicans/former Trump voters confirming they voted for Harris. People that live in red areas running into more Harris/Walz support than Dems have ever received in those areas.

It's still going to be a nailbiter, but I am actually feeling better about things now.

T-12

I think Edward finally broke

And also widely reporting and discussing those statements. The media sucks in some ways, mostly in the predictable way it's a reflection of what society actually cares about, but it's not like they are ignoring this stuff.

And FWIW Trump has denied that he had the conversation. So unless there's a recording I doubt it moves any needles.

Tucker telling dads they need to spank their daughters and tell them they're bad girls is, well, there's no other word than weird.

Even if there was a recording they would claim it is fake or flat out agree with him

This election makes me feel like Mike McDermott sitting heads up, short stacked, against Teddy KGB, Grandma leering at me from the corner as Teddy says "don't worry, it will all be over soon."

We need Trump to start eating some oreos.

And in 12 days I may be able to start enjoying TV and streaming again.

It was such an incredibly powerful way to combat that stuff. Will never understand why they made him stop. Play one of these freaks videos and just end it with Walz saying "that's weird".

The clip also shows the truth behind authoritarianism stuff. People who want it want a child-like relationship with a parent state. I know they dress it up with a bunch of macho stuff but it's honestly a really sad and pathetic way to live. Treating an 80 year old perverted con artist as your daddy.

Apparently the "weird" angle of attack wasn't polling well so the Democrats dropped it.

Their polling was at its peak when they were doing it. Turned Vance into one of the most unlikable politicians in the country. Made Trump play defense. And from a quick search, it seems like polls were showing it worked.

All I can think of is that it wasn't popular with Republicans which the campaign seems to be focusing on for votes.

Not sure it matters much based on the states she needs, but Nevada is looking pretty grim. Ralston is like the guru of the state.




It may be wishful thinking or rationalization, but I did read an article that said that Nevadans adopted an automatic voter registration system in 2020 and has led to a pretty substantial increase in Indy/No Party Affiliation voters. Most of the triggers for the AVR are for things like DMV interactions and change of address, so a lot of younger voters, who tend to skew more to the Dems, make up a big chunk of the NPA voters (and it is an opt out situation, otherwise you are automatically registered).

If you are on Twitter/X, Andy Bloch and Dr. John Samuelson are good follows that explain it much better than I can, but in recent days they have both stated that they expected the typical early vote Dem firewall to be smaller than usual because of this change. So, not saying that Trump won't win Nevada, it has been close all year, but there is pretty decent reason to believe that their voter registration numbers are going to look a lot different than it has in the past and pretty good reason to believe that the unaffiliated voters skew younger, and more Dem.

I just can't be negative about Nevada until Dems finally lose. The culinary union machine always seems to be able to pull it out.

Though I wonder if that is the one place "no tax on tips" might matter

It is why she made the same promise but specifically targeted it to culinary workers.

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I think there should be a ban on early information from the early voting totals. I'm in favor of early voting, but there's a reason why not announcing any results until the polls close was always a thing.

One thing with those Nevada numbers is that the GOP is pushing much harder for early voting than in prior cycles. So it could just be that more Republicans are voting early and less will be there on election day.

The culinary union is incredibly strong and should pull substantial support. But they have soured on Democrats of late. State Dems passed a bill that gave business protections from civil lawsuits if their employees got sick and died due to poor health conditions. They also removed cleaning requirements at hotels and casinos that took away jobs. The union was able to negotiate that back in a contract, but it crushed their leverage and they were furious.

Also, a big factor in their support in 2020 was a push to raise the minimum wage that Biden ran on. He abandoned that quickly and that angered a lot of people there. Whether they hold the actions of Biden and the State Democrats against Harris is something we'll see in a couple weeks. Although I don't think Nevada is going to be a tipping point state.

These are not results. They are just the number of registered voters that have voted.

Right. I mean, I get what Brian is saying, but not releasing these numbers also would seem like withholding information and be made out to be nefarious. I'm more troubled that there is already early voter exit polling. That to me is more problematic.

Ralston has his blog updated. Kind of a mixed bag. Most interesting data point is Republicans are getting a bump from people who haven't voted in the past couple elections.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...ting-blog-2024

Maybe because they're getting bribed by Elon?

If the low propensity voters numbers keep at this rate, NV is going to go red. If those numbers are the same nationwide things would look really good for Trump.

I know it's probably too in the weeds or academic for most voters (which is partly whyTrump keeps hammering it), but I don't see enough push back on the tariffs thing. I don't know if it's come straight from Trump, but "his people" seem to be doubling down on the tariffs idea by suggesting we could get rid of federal taxes altogether and just institute tariffs which will result in more money for Americans because they won't pay for it, the other countries will (I haven't seen a discussion of this that says this is a valid summary of how tariffs work).

Is this just a matter where he's saying stupid things (even if he believes them) and it's pointless to argue back because no one wants to go through the exercise of explaining an economic policy for fear of glazed eyes staring back or a "no tax good idea" response?

It is the equivalent of build the wall. It is a simple solution to a complex problem that appeals to those who lack the ability to think critically. Anyone with a brain knew Mexico wasn't going to pay for the wall just like anyone with a brain knows foreign nations aren't going to eat the cost of a tariff without not only passing the cost to the consumer, but also slapping tariffs on the goods we export. Last time he was in charge he ruined countless farmers and cost the taxpayers billions in handouts, at least to the ones who didn't commit suicide.

It's both. Right above what I posted is a statement about the current margin in Nevada. That is results, but I think number of registered voters is the same issue.

Mitch McConnell's got some balls to say now that J6 was an impeachable offense. When it really mattered he decided to largely stay on the sidelines. We could be rid of Trump if he had worked as hard on impeachment as he did to capture the court.

He will be remembered as the true villain in all of this. Trump is and always has been a truly terrible person but the people who knew that and enabled him or used him to advance themselves or agendas are worse.

He also endorsed him for the current cycle because "team".

Some decent microtargeting Harris news out of PA

New PA bellwether county releases from @muhlenberg_poll's recent PA-07 poll.

�� POTUS

Northampton

�� Harris: 51% (+4)
�� Trump: 47%

Lehigh

�� Harris: 52% (+7)
�� Trump: 45%

Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively.

— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) October 24, 2024

Later in the thread, he also has Harris doing better than Biden in a very Trumpy county.

That’s my county. I’m seeing a lot of Harris signs here. There are die hard Trumpanzees here too but I’m seeing so much more Harris support.

Trump is gonna be in Allentown next Tuesday so he must know he’s vulnerable.

My buddy lives in Northhampton county. Has 2 daughters who will be voting in their first election. Them and all their friends are all voting Harris.

I really think if Harris wins it will be young women who pull her across the line

"Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively."

Does that mean that Biden won those areas by those margins, or those were his final polling numbers in those areas? That's an important distinction, because he underperformed in PA vs his polling numbers.