The Michigan/Wisconsin stuff is right on according to 538. If anyone gets both they basically win, if they are split, Trump slightly favored.

I know the narrative has been that Trump alienated a bunch of demographics. But I'm starting to wonder if perhaps the opposite was true as well. The Left has spent a decade blaming all the world's problems on white men and apparently they went out and voted as a fuck you.

I don't even know what to think right now. I don't care much about who wins these things. I think it's just one of those moments in history that stuns you and you'll never forget.

Yep, 2016, rise of the white man.

2% chance of electoral deadlock per 538. Just sayin'

If Trump wins, is this on par with Truman defeating Dewey?

How many do you think will follow through?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/08/entert...-donald-trump/

Fox just called NC for Trump.

That is a reason to want him to win at least. I'll help many of them pack.

It looks like she's going to lose Wisconsin. Most of Milwaukee is in and she'd down 3. I always thought Michigan was in play because of the primaries but didn't Trump bomb in Wisconsin in the primary?

At least buying from the US is about to become a lot more affordable.

Clinton now has no path to victory, right?

Madison is only 50% counted, though.

On the flipside, they just called the WI senate race for Johnson.

Dow futures have been down as much as 800 points already. Currently 650. All the major US markets are looking down 3.5-4%.

Agreed. I've ranted about this dynamic on this board a lot. McCain tried to tap into that with Palin, but she wasn't enough to swing things against a more likable candidate. I'm not a fan of Michael Moore, but he obviously was in tune with this stuff and saw this coming.

I kind of want to go to sleep, but I also kind of want to experience this historical moment and see where it goes. Though I do feel like leaving the house and going to the neighborhood bar, or trying to get some friends over or something. I mocked people who were so crazy upset about GWB, but I think I understand more about how they felt now.

It's a fascinating time in the country. Sanders was going after a similar dynamic to what is swinging the election to Trump (the young, urban version of it, I guess). But he couldn't do it, and instead, the Republicans picked up that ball of anti-establishment change.

If she wins WI, MI, PA, MN, NV she'll win. If she loses one of those then probably not. CNN called CO for Hillary.

NY Times has Trump at 94%. That seems high with what's in play, but they seemed to swing towards Trump way before anyone else did tonight.

This.

I'm just kind of waiting for the Clinton (metaphorical) kill shot now.

Fox calls Florida for Trump

Hillary's lead in PA is shrinking rapidly now. Need to check what's not reporting in.

edit: Dunno why the NYT keeps pushing this in Trump's favor, but it looks like the unreported areas are liberal strongholds.

They show Penn as likely to go Trump for some reason, which is skewing things.

My dad has never voted in his life. He's a poorly educated, stunningly racist, scared about the changing world around him, 76 year old white man. He voted for Trump today.

Yeah, it's amazing how ugly it's getting at this point. This one is going to rewrite the political science textbooks.

Must be heavy republican areas reporting. The Senate race went from about an 8 point lead down to a 2 point lead.

That's one of the big takeaways tonight. We all read so much about the consistent Republican voter who couldn't vote for Trump. That rhetoric was loud but it didn't match the poll numbers, even when the poll numbers seemed good for Clinton. But the people who were saying that were saying it on facebook and twitter, so it made their voice seem louder than it really was. Americans like your dad don't use those outlets but they're making themselves heard tonight.

CNN isnt calling Florida or NC yet lmao this is great

Man, those 76yo white men sure do need their manufacturing jobs!

A lot of people are calling it the 'Silent Trump Supporter'. I mentioned something similar a few weeks back in this thread and it was met with mocking banter. Not so much tonight.

It'll be interesting. Trump's economic policies are extremely far left. Does he have the power to pass them and completely change the GOP economic stance over the last half century? The power struggle should be interesting.

The fact he might win this by a considerable margin (if he gets WI, MI, and PA), maybe they feel he has a mandate and must go along with it.

That NYT algorithm is crazy, but I don't need an algorithm to know this: no matter how the rest of this goes, we're at roughly a 0% chance of hearing a Trump concession overnight.

So, what cabinet positions will Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani get?

The NYT still has PA in the red, even though 75% is in, Clinton leads by 100k and looking at it county by county, it's hard to see where those 100k votes will come from.

On the other hand, Clinton is down ~60k in Wisconsin with 64% in. And with Milwaukee at 87% and Dane at 66%, she might make it close but that's a big gap to make up with not many votes left to count.

Gingrich = Deputy Secretary of Yelling at Megan Kelly
Giuliani = Sovereign Lord of 9/11 History

Fun night. Even if Hillary wins Trump has the moral victory already.

Gotta hand it to Silver. He was the only one even close to being on top of this outside of partisan pollsters.

He said for the last couple of weeks that if there was a polling error it was likely to be consistently wrong in one direction.

It looks like Clinton's going to lose Wisconsin and Michigan and those weren't even considered close. She got crushed in Ohio, and the correlation across the Midwest is bearing out.

Wow, just noticed everyone in this thread.

And Chris Christie? If he stays out of prison.

Attorney General?

He can be the official taste tester for the Donald.

Just heard Karl Rove (of all people) give a pretty good summary of what happened:

[paraphrase] The American people want populist candidates. On the Republican side, they nominated Trump who won 44% of the primary votes.

On the other hand, the democrats had a populist candidate that got 47% of the votes. But because of the democratic rules, and the backing of the president, we were given Clinton.

Imagine what this election would look like if it was Trump vs Sanders.[/paraphrase]

Fox gives Wisconsin to Trump.

Fox gives Iowa to Trump. He's clinched a tie if he holds the remaining Romney states.

Down 750 and Nikkei is down 7%. We all get what we deserve now if this maniac gets elected.

I deserve an easy way to make crazy money off stupid people panicking. You're exactly right.

You know this was expected, right? This was an indicator of who would win. It will be a buyers market tomorrow.

Trump just needs Georgia and Michigan.

Well, we were warned about the impending apocalypse last week when the Cubs won.

Some would argue we are getting what we want.

Canada's Immigration Site Keeps Crashing For Some Reason

Thinking ahead some more: does a Trump win embolden the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives to revolt against and depose Ryan?

:lol:

Georgia to Trump per Fox News.

Michigan

On the bright side, for either side, regardless of who wins, I'm almost certain the next President will end up being a 1 term President. I don't see how either turns their "unlikable" numbers around and the other side just has to run someone who is likable and will probably win.

Is there a reason why CNN hasn't called Georgia for Trump yet?

Last time Clinton was in Wisconsin was in April.

2 Paths to President Trump:

1. Michigan
2. NH + AZ + AK

CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.

Pretty sure Google called it over an hour ago.

NYT is projecting NH to Clinton. If that happens and she wins Nevada and Michigan, it's a fuckin' tie. Assuming Pennsylvania also.

Lots of people still remember what happened in 2000.

Which is still a loss for Clinton.

Interesting to see who got this the most wrong. The Huffington Post and PredictWise models had Clinton at 98%+

2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? - The New York Times

Still feeling cruel joke outcome at the very end,possibly even with a "called" state being flipped.

No,I'm not suggesting corrupt shenanigans.
I might be suggesting I feel a little "drama enhancement" by networks hoping to retain viewers.

Agreed.

And I don't blame CNN one iota for taking their time. The outcome doesn't change based on any timestamp.

So many mixed emotions. Can't stand him at all but hate her with a passion. It would be like watching the Patriots beat the Cowboys in the super bowl.

I've got some cash sitting in my brokerage account. Any suggestions on what I should by besides the S&P index?

PA is getting tighter but not sure if enough votes left to flip that one. Michigan is getting close, that one could turn.

Funny you should say that. Sean Hannity was just on Fox News and said there was 'no way' that Ryan retains his speaker of the House position.

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

Welcome to the conversation

I can't wait until the mass arrests of political and press opponents begin. Go 'merica!

Simply put, the 'deplorables' and white male electorate showed up in big numbers in response to the beating that they took from Clinton and her supporters. Also, they WAY overestimated the 'female candidate' effect on the female voters. It didn't come through for them like they thought it would.

Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.

This guy wins Twitter.

I'm calling for a complete and total shutdown of polling and punditry until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 9, 2016

36k separate them with 87% in...and the liberal stronghold of Philadelphia is just about all reported. Pittsburgh is only 25% in, though. It's going to tight.

MSNBC seems to hinting that the remaining PA votes are going to give it to Trump.

Could be, but I can't be the only one who is now planning on holding off on the new car purchase, delaying some home improvements, trying to save more money, wanting to see where things go. Of course if you're right, it's a bigger opportunity for you to cash in on my potentially irrational economic fear.

Wow. Trump has now edged into the lead in Pennsylvania.

As a Democrat, you know who I blame? Joe Biden. He wins this easily.

Rachel Maddow on MSNBC had appeared to about lose it a few times.

Trump is about to take Pennsylvania, it seems.

We're going to get to see what a total outsider governing looks like. As I heard someone mention recently, up until three years ago, Trump was a Democrat. So who the hell knows.

PA is only a 5K difference now. Didn't see that coming.

Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.

Progressives don't want to go to Mexico? Why not?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that they included Cuban-Americans in that numbers. Those voters actually voted for Trump more than Clinton. I think this is another clear example of where the models failed pretty badly, especially in Florida.

Trump has a legit shot at 300 EV.

Seth Meyers, this is all your fault!

Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?

The America that I thought I lived in, or that we were heading to is now dead. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity for Democrats to change the SCOTUS. With the next president likely to seat at least 2, possibly 3 on the court, there will never be another chance to get back here in my lifetime. That's a disturbing thought.

Maybe this will end the fascination on math nerds trying to tell us who will win.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-...ilver-sam-wang

Pittsburgh is holding back on reporting. Trump's not getting PA.

Fuck Cancer.

Though I think Sanders pulls it out if Biden jumped in.

Waiting for Fox News to call it. Surely they'll be the first.

Dude, it's hot there. I can't even stand summer in New Jersey.

I got into an election bracket. It was who wins this and who wins that.

I said Trump would win with 272 EVs.

I think I was the only one who chose Trump in his pool. He is a NEA Dem

I think Trump winning is shocking but the fact he's going to blow her out is remarkable. Like this isn't even looking like it'll be close.

Ahhhhh. America, it is refreshing to see that you are not immune to the wave of WTF that has been sweeping the globe in 2016.

People are ANGRY and have been for awhile. Not just the white males. And nobody likes to be called an idiot because they were going to vote one way.

The Republicans thought if you ignored him, he would go away. They decided to attack him late in the primaries. The democrats decided to just attack him. Hillary tried to play the "gotchya" card in the debates. Everyone, including me, thought all she had to do was show up and she would end up winning.

The problem is that's how she viewed it as well. She took things for granted. She didn't feel the need to go to Wisconsin. She kept attacking Trump rather than talking about the issues. In short, she was a horrible, horrible candidate and was from the start.

I'm shocked at this, but in hindsight I shouldn't have been. I HATE what is going to happen tonight, but there are very clear reasons why it did.

FOFC should invite Nate Silver to join and start the thread.

Why does it take some states longer to report than others?

Karl Rove mentioned that this is the highest percentage of third party voting since 1996. Over 5% of people voted for 'someone else'.