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Just finished. This won't move the needle one bit.
They are blaming her for things that happened under Biden when she wasn't the president. |
The panel on FOX is surprisingly complimentary of her.
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I think not moving the needle was foregone before the interview. The number of people who watch Fox and are in any way open to voting for Harris is incredibly small anyway.
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I guess but there is a reason why she is doing it. |
I think she has a “get votes wherever you can” strategy. Like this wasn’t going to bring her a lot of votes. But every swing state is going to be razor thin.
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I keep saying it. The last two elections were decided by a few thousand votes in a few states. Razor sharp margins mean even the most minor thing can make a difference. I think it was smart she did this. It tells people that she is not afraid and she can handle herself.
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Sure, I think that's also true. Narrow margins mean anything you can get matters.
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He’s been with Fox since 1998 though, with only local experience before that. That’s a lot of time to bake in that environment without much before it. Also, he’s only 54? I did not peg him as that young. Maybe that’s because every time I’ve seen him (which admittedly isn’t often) he seems to be aping Trump looks/poses. |
Not at all disturbing
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https://time.com/7086057/donald-trum...ergency-aides/ |
This guy could be the next "Joe the Plumber" if he chooses to be. And the crowd reactions to his insane gaslighting.
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All credit to this guy where he was able to get an answer from him without the walls going up like it would with a journalist. Too bad he didn't ask how the Democrats cheated. Trump's answer shows his delusion is still very much alive in his mind.
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He’s so full of shit. |
I would not have made it through listening to that answer without interrupting him 10-12 times to call him out on his BS. But I give Trump credit for handling it without getting increasingly pissed/erratic. He's definitely full of shit and kept with the same talking points of the past 4 years, but he answered as unemotionally as he probably can.
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I love how he says we a few times and then realizes how bad that sounds and says, by we I mean they.
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That.is.fantastic
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wow Dave Bautista for President. Unlike the guy in the clip above, these are the questions and comments most of us have. Thankfully he can defend himself against any MAGA crazies who take offense.
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On the day Judge Chutkan planned to release a large group of information from Special Counsel Jack Smith, Trump tries one more time to get her to delay until after the election. Saying it would be cherry picked and one-sided and he wants time to tell his side of the story.
Like he hasn't had all this time to do exactly that and nothing |
In case you didn't see last night, Stormy Daniels is in the news again. She thought she was finally at the end of her legal battle over Trump-they had been disputing the amount of money she owed him in the settlement.
So Trump, being the honorable sort said he would agree with whatever number she wanted...but only if she signed a NDA to not talk about him until after the election. And here's the best part-she's given the letter to the press but also a video she had recorded because she wanted to document the final dealing she was going to have with Trump. Should be able to find it on MSNBC |
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Not very much movement after the interview. The current betting market composite is Trump 57.5% Harris 41.9%. In the swing state betting markets, Pennsylvania is Trump 59.5%, Michigan is Trump 56.5%, Wisconsin is Trump 55.5%, North Carolina is Trump 63%, Georgia is Trump 64.5%, Arizona is Trump 68.5% and Nevada is Harris 50.5%. https://electionbettingodds.com/ |
Apparently there is one guy dumping a crapton ton of money in the elections betting market, skewing the numbers
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Taxes are too low if guys can afford to throw away money just to move betting markets.
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"Ashli Babbit was killed. Nobody was killed" Literally in back to back sentences. The blank spaces in this clown's brain are simply amazing. |
I would say by his facial expressions, Trump definitely did not earn his vote back.
Ashli Babbit got exactly what she asked for and in terms of "we didn't have guns, the other side had guns" Aren't the GOP the party of black the blue, or only when they are upholding the law against anyone but them. |
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The reaction of this person was perfect:
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That Bautista bit is amazing
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Trump canceled another sit down interview scheduled for tomorrow. This one with NBC. His team claims he'll be in Michigan but he's appearing on Fox and Friends and will be just a few blocks from the CNBC studio.
The group that was claiming dems were hiding Joe seem to really be doing their best to hide Trump. |
Props to the Trump campaign for running a pretty much leak free ship.
Any other campaign with a candidate spiraling like this would have about a dozen insiders burning up reporter cell phones to "speak on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters" and talk shit about the candidate. Heck, that's part of what convinced Biden to stop contesting for the nomination. But, credit where it is due, you aren't really getting that. |
Eh. They are all going to do what everyone in his last administration did. Sit on damning info that could save America so they can profit from writing a book.
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I think part of Trump's magic is that everyone in his orbit thinks they're the one person who's going to properly manipulate this obvious moron who is begging for it. But nobody can.
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Judge Chutkan denies Trump's appeal for a delay-says she will release the Special Counsel's documents tomorrow. She even said if she was to delay this it would be the very election interference Trump claims is happening. Break out the popcorn!
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Brett Baier now admits they played the wrong clip in the Harris interview. They were supposed to include the clip from the original interview with the "enemy from within" comment tied to the clip he played. He is taking a lot of flack from other journalist about that.
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I think that was the strongest part of the interview for her. She didn't let him get away with downplaying what Trump said.
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Trump attending the Steelers game on Sunday night. Guessing security will be ridiculous
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I thought we'd miss out on a lot of this BS in Chicago because IL obviously isn't a swing state and we haven't had a lot of POTUS visits since Chicago. Unfortunately, it appears that both Trump & Harris prefer to fly into ORD vs. MKE and are visiting WI a lot, meaning that 294 is routinely shut down. This election can't end fast enough. |
So a 6 year old asked Trump what his favorite farm animal was. Trump answered "I'll tell you what I love, I love cows, but if we go with Kamala, you won't have any cows anymore."
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If this was Biden, there would be relentless 24/7 coverage of his cognitive decline.
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I think the fact that she did it at all moves the needle. With the "ABC Whistleblower" conspiracy, and people telling me the moderators were Democrats, going on Fox News puts that to bed. Sure, some people won't listen, but some will, and it will help. |
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Agree and I think even more important, it won't hurt her as she held her own, so people looking/hoping for an implosion did not get it and she didn't lose any support. |
4 early voting days, 1.1 million votes.
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If only voters were that logical. They're not. |
Where do we truly think things are?
It feels very much like 2020 to me. Except Harris is better than Biden. It doesn't feel like things are going to break hard enough for trump at this stage, but it's hard to know how the new voting processes may upend things. trump surly hasn't made inroads into other demos and has focused on exciting his own ever shrinking base instead. Low hanging fruit. If I'm wrong I'll be dismayed, but that's what we had in 16. This feels a. Whole lot different than that however. |
Nice graphic in article that breakdowns early voting by state, registration, age, gender.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ons/early-vote Quote:
In GA, 1.2M voted already, 49-46-5 (Reg-Dem-Other). Looking by age, % of 65+ voting is pretty significant. |
I will be surprised if Harris wins. It feels worse than 2020 to me. But one of the lessons I've learned from living in the social media age is to understand we're all in information and opinion silos, so everything we're seeing (and feeling in terms of assessing things like elections) is skewed to our own side. So I've baked in my own "bias adjustment" to better tune my expectations to what is more likely the true reality.
That said, since we talked about signage where we live, I have been paying more attention and seeing fewer Trump signs than I remember, and way more Harris signs than I ever remember seeing for Biden. But I also live in a far more moderate suburb which voted Biden 4 years ago outside of a blue county in a red state so maybe that's expected and doesn't mean much. Certainly, it means zero in terms of how KY is going to end up. I hope to be "pleasantly shocked." But that's about how I will react - shocked - if Trump doesn't win. And as we've discussed, even if Harris wins, we still lose because it will just set the stage for an immediate, major test of our democracy that the GOP is far more prepared for than Dems and the system in general. |
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It is closer than 2020. Pollsters are generally agreeing this is a tied race. Beyond the "in the margin of error" polling, it is nearly a dead tie in most of the swing states. At this point in a race, there are usually pretty decent swings in the polls going up one way, then up the other until there is a narrowing about now. This race hasn't changed more than .04% in the arrogate since Harris joined the race. It is really hard to gauge exactly which way it will swing in the actual results. |
I don't at all buy that Harris is better than 2020 version of Biden. There's a part of me that wants Biden to go on an I Told You So tour if Harris doesn't win.
I think Harris wins more likely than not, just based on the polls possibly being biased in Trump's favor and overcorrected that way in general. But Silver still has it as a coin-flip, 538 has Harris at 54% and slipping steadily as we get closer, I think it's definitely tight enough that nobody knows. It wouldn't shock me if there's even higher turnout than 2020, partly based on anecdotal observations that give me the impression the Harris vote is more energized while there's still a lot of Trump enthusiasm. Either candidate winning is very possible, by anywhere from a tight to moderate margin. I definitely expect people on this board to be flipping out in the early going like they were in '20, and help us if we get one of the fun scenarios like a razor-thin result in some of the key states, a 269-269 tie, or similar. I think the odds of legal challenges in the aftermath are extremely high, unfortunately, because if it's close at all either way but esp. if Harris wins, well ... |
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538 currently has Trump at 51% chance of winning the election and Harris at 49%. Still a coin-flip, but it's the first time that Trump has taken the lead over Harris in their forecast. Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" (which I give more credence than 538 now), also has it as a coin-flip now, with Trump at a 50.2% chance and Harris at 49.5%. Although a coin-flip, it marks the first time since Sept. 19 that Trump is favored in his forecast. |
If Get Out The Vote efforts matter, Kamala is going to win and fairly easily. Republicans have no ground game compared to Dems or compared to what they had in 2016 and 2020.
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Resting hopes on the youth vote is always a fools' game destined to disappoint, but youth registration is lagging behind 2020 numbers, which I take as a bad sign for the Dems.
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It's been one of the many weird things in this election. The Trump campaign has generally been hurting for money so bad that they haven't built up any ground game at all. What ground game they do have they've handed over to their PACs, like Elon, and those groups are mostly focused on rural areas and making sure those people vote rather than hitting more densely populated areas. |
*If* get out the vote efforts matter.
One of the crazy things, I think, is that we spend literal billions on presidential campaigns, and I think we still don't have a great idea of what works and what does not. Where is the best ROI? How much do candidate in-person rallies matter? How much does tacking to the middle matter? How much does consolidating the base matter? How much does TV advertising matter? How much do get out the vote boots on the ground matter? How much does encouraging early voting matter? How much do yard signs matter? We don't have a huge sample size--these things happen once every four years. And eleventy-billion variables exist. And the people who tend to do the analysis and post-mortems tend to be insiders who want a certain thing to be true. (If I am a politial consultant who focuses on selling TV ads, it is not hard to guess what my analysis will show vis a vis the importance of ads vs. get-out-the vote) It seems like if McDonalds had a billion-dollar product launch, they'd know to the second decimal place where the best ROI of their marketing spending would come from. But with campaigns? Somehow, it is still just "we've decided to focus on X" based on gut feelings. |
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Yeah, while I agree Harris is not as good a candidate as Biden 2020, this is 2024 and she is miles ahead of Biden 2024 as a candidate. Even if she handily lost, there would be no basis for Biden to go on a "you all should eat crow" tour. If Harris loses, it just means Biden would have been trounced.
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And those PAC's may not be up to the task: Exclusive: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake | Donald Trump | The Guardian |
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If Harris loses, Biden should bear much of the blame. Had he done the right thing and announced early in his presidency that he wouldn't be running for a second term, the Democratic party would have had a full primary season for a candidate to secure the nomination. |
OK Biden, yes, but really a very broad array of the Democratic establishment. The Democratic party needs root-and-branch reform regardless of whether Harris wins or not, but if she loses it really needs to be comprehensive.
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That is completely backwards. |
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And you are both right |
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They've needed it badly since losing in 2016, but they're so focused on fighting off MAGA (Tbf, does need to be done) to sit down and have the debate. And the Republican Party as is should probably be tossed out and replaced by a conservative party that isn't hooked on white nationalism and strongman worship. |
This focus on 'fix the party' will never cease to amaze me. The parties mostly are what they are because people want them to be that. Most Republicans want Trumpism, rather than a sane conservative party. Similar things to a somewhat lesser degree are true of Democrats.
You have to fix the people first before you can try to fix the party. |
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Yeah, as we've said before on this board, we have an electorate problem. Having said that, we're only ever going to have to parties, and they could be better parties.
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The voters might have picked Trump anyway, but I wonder if it would have been better for the GOP if Haley's primary strategy had been to attack some of Trump's weaknesses instead of a platform of "Trump is awesome, and you should vote for him and not me."
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His ego STILL won't allow him to use her to try to shore up support with women. It might be too late and not work, but his people were (are still?) trying to make it happen last week and then Trump.went on Fox this weekend and talked about how badly he beat her in the primaries, especially in her home state.
Instead, he gives speeches condescendingly talking to women about how only he can relieve their fears and anxieties and will be their protector. *Biggest roll eyes ever* |
If polls are your things not looking good for Harris
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Well, what I've been wondering about the polls for some time: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/v...gn-are-working Quote:
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There's a lot of bad polling flooding the averages right now. One poll i looked at had Trump slightly up but when you dig deeper they had him winning with women by nearly 5 points. Another poll had Trump up by 5 points nationally. Another had Trump slightly up overall and winning Pennsylvania and Michigan in state polling but losing every other battleground. |
I think that's partly true. Most of the first three are, point 4 is a lot more shaky. You cheat when you think there's a chance you might lose is a lot better way of framing it, and yeah it's gotten worse but there's never been a shortage of biased polling; particularly since it's an inexact science what the 'right' assumptions actually are.
Plus, if you look at things like the 538 projections, even if you removed all of the big outliers entirely it would still be really, really close. Fraction of the margin of error close. Push-polling and similar tactics are definitely terrible, but they aren't remotely close to enough to make it look like the wrong candidate is winning. |
A couple of questions for the folks in states where there have been ballot initiatives to legalized marijuana about the ad campaign associated with the ballot.
1. What were the main TV ad arguments against it in your area? Just going by TV ads here, the opposition in Florida is that marijuana smells bad and the initiative to legalize it was written and is being pushed by Big Weed. Now, I have done my own research and read about opposition to the initiative due to it leading to more people being addicted to weed and an increase crime. However if I just went by the TV ads, the opposition can't expect the smell and Big Weed to be enough to convince the public from passing the initiative. Most people I know think tobacco smells worse than weed while the threat of Big Weed (represented by a fat white guy in a suit and tons of jewelry in the commercials I have seen) sending the cops to your house because you have a small plant in your house seems even more far fetched. I guess I was expecting a parent of a child killed by someone high on marijuana or something involving immigrants bringing in the weed to kill Americans as a reason opposing the bill. 2. Did members of law enforcement do ads in favor of passing the initiative? This part might be even weirder for me. Multiple sheriffs have appeared in ads in support of legalizing weed basically so they can move on from trying to bust people for possession to solving more severe crimes. Whether the initiative passes or not it is weird to see a man with a badge on his chest telling the public to vote to legalize weed. It will be even weirder if the initiative does not pass and the same sheriffs are bragging about busting a weed house and keeping this weed off the streets. |
I don't understand why a court can't put a temp stay on this scam Elon is running until the legalities of it are worked out.
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dola- how long until the stories start coming out about Elon not paying up.
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I feel like Elon keeps pushing the boundry on this because he wants an order to stop it. He can then cry "Election interference! Persecution! They want to stop free speech!" And the lapdogs will eat it up. It doesn't mean they shouldn't do it, but I bet it is part of the plan.
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Just got done with early voting. Now where is the opt-out to not get anymore political commercials on TV?
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I think that is just what they want. And I don't think that the Dems are going to give it to them.
I also think that the bad optics of looking desperate enough to buy votes will cancel out the votes bought. |
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The WaPo polling averages only include high quality polls and they have Harris up 2 in PA, MI, WI and < 1 in NV. Trump up 2 in AZ and GA, and < 1 in NC. Hardly any change in the past week. So there is something to the crappy right wing pollsters pulling the averages on 538 and Silver bulletin. I know they say they don't but there's so many of them now. We saw this in 2022- Dr Oz was ahead by <1 in the averages and lost by 5, Whitmer was only ahead by 5 in the averages and won by 10. The NH and WA senate races looked closer in the averages and the D incumbent won in a blowout. So I dont know what to think about the polls this time. |
Haven't we seen the Dems across the board outperform polls in the last 3 or 4 elections?
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lol
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2020's polls aggregate had Biden +7.4 and the result was Biden +4.5 |
Every election post-Dobbs has had Dems overpreform
Every election in which Trump is on the ballot (as opposed to mid-terms, specials, etc.), he has overperformed. This is a post-Dobbs election with Trump on the ballot. So there is data to cherry pick for either direction. (And it is a moving target. Pollsters keep recalibrating after every election based on what they missed. So that makes it even harder to use past performance to judge.) |
There is a whole lot of "on the one hand..." in a race that looks like it's been as close to 50-50 as anything that I have ever seen.
For Kamala, what would keep me up at night is that Biden is historically unpopular, that the hammering on immigration and trans-related issues must test well among swing voters because the GOP has based a huge chunk of its resources on it, that the economy has been so mixed over the past few years, that some people are just not going to vote for a woman or non-white person (or the combo), and that Trump has his baked in percentage of fanatical followers. For Trump, what would keep me up a night is that he lost the last election and subsequently has had all of the legal issues and specifically the Jan. 6th event, that the post-Dobbs world has not been kind to Republicans in just about any races (large and small) over the past few years, that while inflation has raised prices on a lot of things, for a lot of people the economy is really not that bad (and appears to be improving), and that he seems to have trusted the wrong people with his GOTV, so his ground game seems like it may be historically bad and disorganized. My random and anecdotal observations that tilt me to think that Kamala may be a little more ahead right now are that it sure seems like an unprecedented number of Republicans are supporting for her and voting for her (both national, big names, and people that I know), that I just see far, far fewer Trump signs/bumper stickers/flags on trucks between where I live and the places that I travel, and a lot of the women that I know feel very passionately about voting against Trump. Again, anecdotal things, but things that feel like they have a different energy than 2016 and 2020. |
Every non-partisan pollster I have heard says it would be malpractice to call this race either way. It sucks that we have even less certainty than normal, but then we had clear certainty in 2016 and it was completely wrong.
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If someone put a gun to my head and said "you have to make a prediction, and not some pansy-ass prediction like '50 million people will cast a ballot'" then I'd predict that the polling is going to be off and whomever wins is going to do so in a manner that leaves no ambiguity (like winning all the swing states by 10:00 PM eastern).
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I’ve had multiple very smart people tell me in the last week that if the election was a month earlier Harris would have won, but I think all the signs and polls now only point to one outcome. I also think that it will be a 2016 scenario where a Trump win is immediately obvious once results from PA start coming in. But what the hell do I know.
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You know what'll be funny as all hell to me? If Trump ends up beating Harris by a wider margin than he was being projected to beat Biden. THAT would be hysterical to me. |
I think it's pretty simple. If Trump gets the low-propensity voters who skipped 2020 to vote, he'll win.
But that's a big hill to climb. |
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I'd say this is also true if Harris beats Trump by much larger margin than Joe beating Trump. Either way, I think the losing party will have a lot of soul searching to do. What's the latest odds on the Senate & House? |
In retrospect, running a campaign centered around the support of Dick Cheney and his loser daughter may not have been wise.
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But that would only be because Biden stopped being a candidate 4 months earlier. I have to think he was just going to freefall from where he was if he stayed in the race. So in your scenario, it's not a fair comparison. It would just mean to me that Biden might have gotten pantsed if he remained in the race. |
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Do you mean searching FOR a soul? |
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We need this as a country. MAGA is going to cry steal no matter what, but a decisive Harris victory will go a long way. |
Not gonna happen. I'll be even more shocked than 2016 if she wins decisively.
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Won't happen with the (D). Communists don't generally acknowledge the existence of souls. |
Trump has crossed the 60% threshold in the betting markets for the first time since Biden withdrew from the race. He is also a 60% favorite in Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, and a 70% favorite in Georgia. The current betting market have him winning 312 EV's to Harris' 226.
https://electionbettingodds.com/ |
Arrived about 5 min before opening time, about 20 people before us. In and out in 15 min.
I didn't remember this from 4 years ago, but they placed my DL in a device that was scanned (or something). I think 4 years ago it was manual look and verify. |
I can only hope the manipulation theory is what is pushing the polls and betting markets but as I posted above, I'm pretty pessimistic. Both because I don't trust the people of this country and also because even if they pass this test, I'm not sure the system will when pushed and bent by the inevitable challenges.
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Nice summary of stuff working against Kamala
[url="https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win"] Quote:
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The "can Kamala prove she worked at McDonalds 40 years ago" thing reminded me of my interactions with the state of Louisiana.
When I was in high school/college, I worked at Winn Dixie. A few years ago, I got contacted by the Louisiana office of unclaimed property (or whatever it is called) saying that I had, like, $25 or something from Winn Dixie that was unclaimed from the right time period. So I must have forgotten to pick up my last check or something. So I start filling out the online form, and then I get to this point where it asks me to prove that I am owed the money. And I respond that I have no idea if I am owed the money but y'all got in touch with me to say I was owed the money. And in any event, I certainly can't prove it. And it ended there because I did not feel like spending the rest of my life chasing down the money. |
Anecdotal, but in driving out to IN again last weekend we oddly didn't see many signs at all. Yeah, there was the occasional sarcastic "Thanks Joe" or Trump billboard, but those are there all the time. Lawns there weren't many (if anything, where we were there were a few random Harris/Walz signs and not a lot else; some guy named Ben Carson -- not that one -- too, I guess).
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