F*&@!!!!

Ugh! One strike away from getting to within 3 games of Colorado.

noooooo :(

Not Rowand. Ughhh I smell a DP

Man he is useless. 3 pitches and back to the bench. At least it wasn't a DP

Sigh.

Found it pretty amusing to see Zack Greinke get tossed from the game last night for complaining about the strike zone.......in a game he wasn't even pitching in. Must have been a pretty bad strike zone last night to get Greinke hollering. It's very rare that you'll find him reacting to a call even on the mound.

Its not the Most Valuable Rookie of the Year Award and a rookie is a rookie, doesn't matter if he is 20 or 25. Yeah, what Porcello has done is quite impressive (I love watching him pitch) but he is by no means a hands down winner. Take off your Tigers glasses and look at the big picture.

Nice pitching duel in the Yankees/Red Sox game.

Braves now within 5 of Philadelphia and within 3 of Colorado.

Hoping Cardinals bullpen can hold the 4-3 lead and bring the Braves within 2.5.

2.5 back

BELIEVE

Angels choking another game away against Oakland as Texas wins in Tampa. If this happens again tomorrow, will start to be slightly concerned.

I'm not so much concerned, as just flat angry.

"Big John" fails again. This guy has talked a lot of crap over the past few months for him not to show up on a night like this. Obviously, the pen sucked, too, but it has been hit and miss all year. It's not a surprise. John "I'm gonna get me Sabathia money" Lackey is what let Oakland back in the game.

And this one a night after the ridiculously inconsistent offense makes Gio Gonzalez look like a freakin' star.

Yeah Lackey isn't blameless but what a complete clusterfuck the bullpen is right now. I'm still beyond pissed at Reagins for not strengthening it at the deadline. When it comes down to it I have zero confidence in any of these guys to get it done.

Why why why is Gregg Norton up in important situations?

Because the Braves were too cheap to use the expanded rosters to call up anyone who actually might, you know, get a hit.

Brandon Jones &Barbaro Canizares are two that come to mind, but for that matter where is Ryan Church (1 AB in the past 10 games) Reid Gorecki (1 AB in the past 2 weeks), or hell use Brooks Conrad and let him do his Greg Norton imitation (0 for 16 since the Sept call ups)

Atlanta wins again, St. Louis is leading Colorado by a run in the fourth inning. It could be 1.5 games at the end of today.

Reid Gorecki can't hit at all, but I'd definitely rather see one of those other guys up. But what do you expect from Bobby Cox? For months he's had the top 2 OBP guys (Diaz and LaRoche) batting 7 and 8, and the worst hitter in the lineup (Garret Anderson) batting 4th or 5th.

But Garret Anderson is a veteran!

But Gorecki's hitting is relative to Norton's in this case.

Gorecki: .208 Avg
Norton: .135 Avg

Granted Norton has a better OBP and somewhat fewer strikeouts (although Gorecki's sample size of just 25 AB's is pretty small) but I'd say there's at worst an equal chance of Gorecki getting an actual base hit as there is Norton. Then again Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Diory Hernandez all have higher BA's than Norton.

Come on, Cardinals! If you help the Braves get in, you increase your chances of facing Gregg Norton in a key situation in the playoffs.

Zack probably wrapped up the AL Cy Young today. 1 ER over 7 innings with 8 strikeouts. He's now got 16 wins and lowered his league-leading ERA to 2.06.

He's also only 8 K's away from tying the single season strikeout record held by Dennis Leonard.

Phillies don't blow a lead in the ninth. I know, I'm surprised, too.

I kinda feel bad for Red Sox fans. After starting the season 8-0 against the Yankees, your team promptly went 1-9 against them the rest of the way, including a team ERA of over 6. Ouch. I don't really know what will happen in the playoffs (Yankees pitching still does not have me convinced they can get it done), but it is hard to argue the Yankees don't have the momentum right now.

I'll be pretty surprised if the Yankees don't win the World Series.

If Boston loses to the Angels, and the Yankees beat the Tigers/Twins (no guarantee), I would not count on them winning a 7 game series against Anaheim. Should they win? Probably. Will they win? Hell if I know.

I too would be absolutely stunned if the Yankees don't win the AL. Their lineup is just too deep and the bullpen is too good. Before the last Angels-Yankees series you could possibly say that the Angels had their number but now, I don't think so. I guess the one concern is if Petitte has a bad outing and Joba has a melt down then you are getting low on quality starters but still... Yankees are a class above everybody this year IMO.

And there is pretty much 0% chance the Angels get past the Red Sox anyway, talk about a curse.

Not sure which bullpen you are watching, but the Yankees' bullpen is terrible. Although we got a good outing yesterday by Bruney and Coke, those two normally stink. Bruney was pitching well until his injury problems earlier this season, he hasn't been the same since. Phil Hughes has been lights out in the 8th, and Rivera is still a top closer. However, the main problem is starting pitching/long relief. If Pettite is not up to par, and Joba pitches like he has been (aside from Saturday's game), the Yanks are in trouble.

I will believe it when I see it. Remember, A-Fraud has yet to prove he can be relevant in a big-game moment. I also am afraid of what happens if Posada gets injured (as much as the guy annoys me). Molina sucks. Period. The guy can't hit a ball off a tee.

Well, Coke has actually been pretty good recently and his WHIP is very good, he just needs to stop giving up bad homers. Plus it's the playoffs and you can sometimes get by with 2 elite relievers if your starters are solid, Mo can easily go 2 innings if he has to and Hughes is a starter, there's no endurance problems there.

But yeah, overall I didn't realise how shallow the Yankees bullpen is. If they get into a lot of drawn out games that could be an issue as well. Still, overall talent level on the team, they should get into the WS easily.

I won't. With 7 game series, there's plenty of opportunity for "lesser" teams to win.

Wow. The Dodgers are ready for the playoffs, aren't they. They lost yesterday too. To the Pirates.

Pirates 11
Dodgers 1

Game 1:

Twins 3
Tigers 2 (10 innings)

Detroit may just blow this and watch the playoffs this year. If so, I blame it all on Leyland, including the pile of cigarette butts in the dugout.

Kind of regretting turning down Tigers tickets for tonight and Thursday. Oops :)

Braves 2 back of Rockies and 4 back of Phillies after another stellar performance from Jair Jurrjens. Shaping up to be a pretty exciting finish.

Braves seriously look like they will make the playoffs.

And cue them losing four of their last six while the Rockies win three or four outta six.

It'd be something if the Tigers blew the division the week after the Lions won for the first time since 2007.

Sometimes I wonder if the Red Wings are all that keeps the entire state going. :(

Heh, anyone else hear this yet? The call of the year from Sunday's Seattle-Toronto game. Great reaction after the homerun but you need to listen to the pregame clip first.

link

This is more offseason business, but it's looking like the success of the Giants this season has all but ensured that both Sabean and Bochy will be returning. I'm having a sad right now. I'd actually be somewhat okay with Sabean returning in that I wouldn't want to open a vein upon hearing the news, but Bochy really needs to take his big head elsewhere. He is the wrong manager for next year's team, and I was really hoping that Duke Neukom would realize this and bring in someone with a healthy respect for the construction of a sensible lineup and the understanding that veterans don't always do it better than youngsters.

Yeah, that's some good stuff right there. I don't know how serious Blowers was about his prediction - I tend to think he was half-joking - but he came out looking like Nostradamus.

That was great.

Now if only the season would end so JP Riccardi can get fired in Toronto. Time for Cito to go too. I mean, I don't mind him, but...regime change is just what the doctor ordered up there. If they wanna bring Gillick back as the interim, I could be down for that, but I don't know if he wants to go full circle or not.

On second thought, they need to hire Kim Ng, the Dodgers Assistant GM. Sure, it'll be a story that generates attention since she'd be the first woman GM, but I think not only would it play well in Toronto, but she knows her stuff and would be a good pickup where other teams are too gunshy.

After the Roy Halladay fiasco, the Blue Jays would be stupid to keep that guy.

He's toast and pretty much knows it, but now says it's the fault of the Yankees & Red Sox that he hasn't been successful, even while the freakin' Rays who started with a lot less to work with managed to make the playoffs during his tenure.

I love Riccardi. Without his public auction for Halladay, the Phillies would've never gotten Lee for so cheap. :thumbsup:

Matt motherfuckin Diaz!

Yeah, I suppose it is the Yankees and Red Sox fault that everyone but one team wins the world series every year too. What a douchebag he is.


Yep, and Lee has been pretty much lights out too. Stupid Indians.

Verlander having a rough time in the 8th, Twins cut the lead to 5-4 but Granderson leads off the bottom half with a solo bomb.

Can Rodney close it?

Let's hope so.

Followed unfortunately by motherfuckin Kenshin Kawakami :(

Wow, what a defensive mistake by Granderson.

WTF Granderson.

He is so overrated defensively.

Whew, Tigers survive basically two errors in the 9th. 6-5 win.

Whew. Gotta love that the Phillies can make a 3-run lead feel like a nail-biter. Town is celebrating as if we won the World Series again.

At this point, I'll take my division title and run, k thanx.

Good to see the Tigers pull that one out. All they need to do now is win one of the next two against the Twins and they are in excellent shape.

Chipper grounds into a double play, one out from a loss and Colorado just took a one run lead in the sixth. C'mon McCann.

edit: Pop out, Braves lose 5-4 :(

w00t! One more to go!

Milwaukee with a huge comeback in the top of the 9th on a Jason Kendall 3 run HR. It is now tied in the bottom of the 9th. If they can pull this off, the Braves are still in good shape.

Because he made one bad play?????

I can't recall a play he's botched like that in forever (or at all).

You seem to have a lot of Tiger hate. But that's ok.

Why does the Rockies' mascot always sit right behind home plate? It's really distracting.

Uh no, I've watched him the last couple years struggle reading balls off the bat and barely make what should've been a routine play. He reminds me of Ryan Freel, can't read the ball off the bat and ends up making routine plays look like great plays. Many around here consider him a to be a gold glove caliber defender, I don't see it.

I say Granderson is overrated and I don't think Porcello will win the ROY so I have a lot of Tiger hate? Interesting, since I'm not a homer and look at my team with open eyes I'm a hater.

Hopefully they can clinch before the last game of the season so Verlander can skip that game and pitch Game 1 vs Yankees.

I don't know a great way of using stats for defense, but Granderson is 2nd among AL outfielders in putouts, and only has 3 errors. He is listed 8th among outfielders for range factor per game. I know that those aren't great stats (the Tigers pitching might just give up more fly balls than average, and errors is a very subjective category), but it seems that Granderson gets to a lot of balls.

Stats generally don't tell the whole story, you have to watch him...he generally struggles to get a good read off the bat. Also plays like last night don't count as an "error".

Um, have you not met Schmidty before?

Indians fire their manager, Wedge. Effective at the end of the season.

Get clear, Wedge. You can't do any more good back there!

Sorry!

That shit is so fucking annoying. It needs to be stopped.

Granderson didn't look very good on that fly ball. Talk about not getting a good read off the bat.

Another blunder by Granderson in the field, luckily it didn't cost them.

Wow Inge has been on fire the last couple games!

Nice snag by Polanco (yeah a little late)..

Kind of a hilarious lineup the Red Sox put out tonight, one day after they clinched the Wild Card:

J Gathright CF
J Reddick LF
C Kotchman 1B
D Ortiz DH
R Baldelli RF
G Kottaras C
A Gonzalez SS
J Lowrie 3B
C Woodward 2B

Not surprisingly, no hits against Halladay through 4.

5-0 Marlins in the 6th, Braves have just two hits off of Nolasco so far & he's struck out a dozen already.

Baldelli's now moved to third base.

I expect high comedy.

The sox have 1 hit in the 7th, which is one more then I expected from a lineup of (Gathright/Reddick/Kotchman/(ORTIZ)/Baldelli/Kottaras/Gonzalez/Lowrie/Woodard)

That's not even a B-team Spring Training lineup..

FWIW, UZR has him at slightly above average this year, 25th among 64 eligible OF'ers, and well below average, 49th among 63 eligible OF'ers last year.

Red Sox trying to steal the Cy Young from Greinke and give it to Halladay ;) , although Joey Gathright did break up the no-hitter at least.

Looks like Charlie's talk had a bit of an effect!

:thumbsup:

Can Brad Lidge hold a 7-run lead with two outs? Oh the drama!

Over/under: He gives up two runs. Probably at least one homer.

NL EAST CHAMPS!

Oh, you've got to be fucking kidding me!

What the fuck was Matt Diaz thinking?

1 pitch

Fuck fuck fuck, that just sucked so hard.

Just read the pbp & the AJC blog and now know how the Braves game (and basically season) ended. Good f'n grief.

In the end, an appropriate finish for the Braves, who sealed their fate when they got swept by the Reds. When it comes down to it, this is a mediocre team that overachieved by staying mathematically alive this long and seems just as likely to go 70-92 next year as they are to win 86 again.

edit to add: And if this was, as expected, Vazquez last appearance as a Brave, I gotta give him credit for doing not only what they signed him to do (eat innings) but for being the team's best pitcher for the whole season which is more than I expected.

Fuck baseball. And my NFL team is already dead too. At least there's soccer and the NBA is starting up soon.

I forgot how much I missed HK calling games until the Phils clinched tonight.

:(

The Braves current lineup and rotation is NOT a mediocre team. They've actually been the best team in the NL by a fairly wide margin since all of the mid-season roster changes. Even given their poor start thanks to a bunch of everyday players who are no longer around or no longer playing (Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francouer, Kelly Johnson, Casey Kotchman) they still trail only Philadelphia (barely) and Los Angeles in run differential. They also have winning records against all three division winners.

There's no legit everyday 3B at this point, the rotation declines sharply when they salary dump Vazquez (because it'd take a miracle to find a buyer for Lowe or Kawakami at their current contract), the OF is still a work in progress (or regress) at this point, McCann disappointed although overuse in the 2nd half may have contributed to that, and it's unlikely that Prado, Infante, and Diaz all three equal or better their outputs this year. And I have little doubt that LaRoche will end up resigned at too large a price after a good run and turn back into the pillar of inconsistency that's become his hallmark.

I see very little reason to expect them to be better, or even as good, next year than they were this year. Granted, I fully expected a 100 loss season in '09 so they overachieved and that's great. But that doesn't make them any better than mediocre in a league filled with mediocrity at best.

Now you're talking about next year, not this year. It's really not hard to go down ANY team's lineup with a critical eye and say "I don't think he's going to play well next year." Basically you're assuming that any player who played above their previous level is going to play worse next year, and any player who played below their previous level is also going to play worse next year. As for the specific case you mention:

Prado: he put up an .838 OPS last year. His OPS is .818 this year. What makes you think he's in line for a big drop off?

Same for Infante, last year: .755, this year: .737 (and he's a bench utility guy, so it seems strange to single him out).

Brian McCann's career OPS is .856, this year it was .844--not exactly a big disappointment.

Diaz: he had an exceptionally poor 2008, but he struggled with injuries and only played in 43 games. In 2006/2007 his OPS was .838/.865, this year it's .884--not a huge difference.

Chipper is a concern but even at his current level he's still a 3rd baseman with a ~.400 OBP. I don't think you can really pronounce him dead yet, though, as he had a similar year in 2004 and followed it up with 4 of the best years of his career.

As for the contracts, Kawakami has played up to his contract value (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...25&position=P), even having been removed from the rotation through no fault of his own. I don't see how you can be sorely disappointed in a starter with a 3.8 ERA. If the Braves do move Vazquez it won't be a "salary dump." I'm all in favor of them selling high on him if they're able to get some pieces for next year or even good prospects.

And the outfield is fine. Even though his numbers are slightly down from his previous two seasons, McLouth's production is still above average for a CF. Diaz production is good, and the Braves have the #1 prospect in baseball ready to play RF next year. If that doesn't work out you can plug Ryan Church in and it would certainly be an improvement over Anderson this year, who is only playing by virtue of Bobby Cox being incompetent.


They may have overachieved relative to your very wrong projections. They didn't overachieve relative to their talent level as their Pyth. W/L would have them in the wild card. I don't have a crystal ball, and it's entirely possible that every player on the team plays like shit next year and the team tanks--but it's no more likely to happen to this team than it is to any other.

I'll concede this one a bit, his total AB's this season actually turned out to be higher than I thought they were & that reduces my level of concern with him.


I single him out because he's as a legit a starter as half their current lineup, regardless of how he's been used to date.


It is if you expected continued improvement instead of the apparent plateau. He's still a darned good catcher, but I didn't believe he had topped out.


And, like a good portion of the lineup, he's a part-time player. I really really like Diaz, even with tonight's boner, but he is what he is.


Dude hasn't been healthy in 6 years, has a huge dropoff this season, will turn 38 next April, and hasn't talked about anything so much as retirement for the past month. Dead? All that's missing is the burial.


Didn't say I was disappointed with him, and not for a minute have I blamed him for the move to the bullpen. But him at the back of the rotation vs Vazquez at the top is not a fair trade.


Now that part is absolute unadulterated bullshit. Someone has to go because they don't appear willing to pay a legit top of the rotation guy if it means they have to grossly overpay Hudson, Lowe, or Kenshin to pitch out of the bullpen. Maybe they'll make the right call & let Hudson go instead but I don't have any confidence that'll happen.
I'm all in favor of them selling high on him if they're able to get some pieces for next year or even good prospects.


McLouth "above average"? Not this year. 6th of 11 qualifying CF's in the NL in OPS, 7th of 11 in OBP, 5th of 11 in SLG. He's the current definition of average (sorry as I am to say that)

Diaz is fine on the whole & I can live with the guy if for no reason other than I find him pretty likable, but as for Church being an improvement over Anderson (who is downright f'n painful to watch), the reality is that the difference in their OPS is .721 to .718 and given his usage down the stretch (again, unless he's still injured & I just can't find any mention of it online) I'll be quite surprised if he's even in the organization when they break camp next spring.

And then there's the looming spectre of the complete fuckitude of the waste of space & salary that is Terry Pendleton being named as Cox's successor. Might be the one thing that actually makes Bobby's decision making look good by comparison, as Pendleton has turned into a guy who couldn't lead starving dogs to fresh meat.

Yeah, I'm just overfuckingjoyed at the future.

As a Mets fan, there is nothing I'd like more than the Braves to name Terry Pendleton as manager :D.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2009&month=0

McLouth has been slightly above average this year and projections will surely have him doing better next year. Ryan Church's offensive numbers were similar to Anderson's this year, but he's a much better defensive player and would be an upgrade. Even if Chipper doesn't rebound that doesn't mean the Braves have a weakness at third base--he's about league average. They didn't need him to carry the offense this year and there's no reason to expect they'll need him to carry the offense next year.

What exactly makes Diaz a "part-time player"? He's played full time in the second half and is posting the best numbers of his career. Even if you include last year's injury-plagued season he's put up .317/.363/.467 over the past 4 year and played average defense. How are those numbers not good enough to start?

As for a "salary dump" I guess that's just a matter of your definition. I don't consider it a salary dump to move a guy if you have 6 players for 5 spots. Assuming that the Braves are going to hold on to Hanson and Jurrjens, Vazquez looks like the only guy you'd be able to get anything substantial for. It certainly makes no sense for the Braves to keep all 6 and end up with a long reliever making $8+ million when you could use that money to sign, say, a first baseman.

Oh, and the latest buzz is that Frank Wren wants to go outside of the organization to find Cox's replacement in an effort to further distinguish things from the Scheurholz era. Who knows how that will change over the next year, though.

Perhaps, but does that also take into account the number of games he played while the moon was in the 11th house? Good frickin' grief, throw enough numbers at something & we'll eventually find a category that nearly every player in the league could be above average at.

Only if they intend to play him.


So he's 13th out of 22 but that's "about league average". But McLouth being 11th out of 25 makes him "above average"? That's convenient spin.


The absence of a season where he got 400 AB's is a pretty good definition. Yeah, he got hot & Cox played him for a couple of months. But that doesn't prove he's a 150 game a year starter, not until he does it. It isn't whether his number for 2 months are good enough to start, it's whether those number hold up over a full season.


It is when you're dumping the most valuable one of the group in order to avoid eating a worse contract.


Frank will do whatever his boss tells him to do if he'd like to have a job. Lemme see here, who would that boss be, hmm, can't think of his name right now but I'm sure it will come to me.

Look, you want to be optimistic about this team, knock yourself out. I just don't see it, if anything they'll be lucky to tread water.

Fair enough. Ideally they won't have to play him with Heyward coming up some time early next season. The point remains that it won't be difficult to find someone who can equal or better Garret Anderson's production.


The numbers I linked were Wins Above Replacement, which is the best way to quickly estimate the overall value of a player. You referenced a melange of different stats that don't really give a good indication of overall value.


I'm still not clear on your reasoning here. I referenced more than 1100 ABs of data. Do you think his arms will fall off if he crosses the 400 AB mark in one season?


I'm not sure what your problem is with this characterization. There are 30 teams in the baseball. Presumably these players were more valuable than whatever platoon/injury/player shuffling situations that resulted in insufficient PAs for the rest of the league's 3Bs/CFs. For example, if you set the Min PAs to 100, Chipper finishes 13 out of 64. So, yes, I think it's fair to say that the 11th most valuable CF is "above average" and the 13th most valuable 3B is "about average." If you don't then I guess we just have a semantic disagreement. At any rate, it's a silly thing to argue over.


It's not "dumping" if you're getting fair value. It would be foolish to pay someone to take Lowe off your hands when he's coming off one of the worst season of his career. He put together 4 straight solid years and even this year he's going to give you nearly 200 IP at a 4.50 ERA. His advanced metrics(FIP and tRA) are more on par with what he's done the rest of his career as a starter, and he appears to have been at least partially the victim of bad luck this year, giving up a BABIP of .328.


I'm just repeating what was reported in Baseball Prospectus:

General manager Frank Wren said he had no immediate plans to start looking for Cox's successor. However, those close to Wren believe he will look outside the organization because he wants to begin putting his own stamp on the organization after taking over for John Schuerholz, who was promoted to club president prior to last season. Wren also wants to have a good working relationship with the next manager, and he and Cox are barely on speaking terms despite their public comments to the contrary.

If you have some inside information about how Schuerholz is really managing personnel decisions through his Frank Wren puppet regime, please share.


I don't see it as terribly optimistic to think that a team which has been one of the best in baseball in its current configuration should be pretty good next year. If you want to incorrectly predict another 100 loss season, knock yourself out.

So, is Heyward expected to start opening day?

Probably not. Even if they intend on calling him up I'd say it's more likely that they hold off in order to delay his arbitration clock.

God, I can't believe the Pirates can't even outlose the Orioles. I'd much rather have the #2 pick than the #3. Screw playing for pride and avoiding 100 losses.

Somewhere around June first is best if you want to avoid him being a "super two."