I'd be really happy with that if I were the Lions FO. The teams needs D, but those are two really valuable offensive players at need positions.

dola: Though if you listen to the Robert Mays podcast, he is a strong believer in thinking in terms of how much certain positions cost when they hit FA and how to think of the rookie contract in those terms.

If you get, say, a CB at 18, then he does not really have to be that good for the rookie salary to make him a value add considering how much starting corners get paid. But if you are picking a RB or TE there, then they have to be a top player to justify even the rookie salary (he was talking more top 10 than 18, but the overall idea seems to still make sense).

Basically, in the NFL, an average DE is worth more than a good TE, and you should draft with that in mind.

I don't know if I totally agree, but it is food for thought.

I do listen to it! I heard him talking about that last week when they were going over the lessons learned from the 2018 draft. He used the difference between drafting a RB high in the first round and what you'd need him to be in order to be a "value" cap-wise (essentially one of the best RBs in the league) and how good you would need a DE to be for him to be a "value" (just serviceable).

It's definitely another interesting data point to consider.

The Mays pod via the Athletic is now among my go-tos. I'd say it has about a 50% strike rate being my thing or not, but I respect the lane they are trying to land into. I like it when guys talk coverage schemes and pattern systems that I don't fully understand, it strikes me as "aspirational" football talk. For years I really just confined myself to following things relevant for fantasy football, but especially during COVID (working from home) I have found myself increasingly willing to commit my time to listening to, and thinking about, deeper football stuff -- contracts, schemes, and the like.

Agreed. I tend toggle between the Athletic Football Podcast and The Ringer NFL podcasts depending on my mood and the flavor NFL content I'm looking for. I've tried a few others with no real success - other than some Lions-central podcasts.

One thing that I hope does not happen is that enough analytics get into football that people just lean into the numbers and realize that doing A, B, C and investing in X, Y, Z is the best way to win and that all other strategies are sub-optimal. And then every team starts to look the same. That's way less interesting as a fan.

We've seen it in other sports. In the 80s, you had baseball and basketball teams trying all sort of different strategies and styles. And most of them were doing it wrong it turns out. But it was entertaining to watch contrasting styles. Now it feels like we are watching 30 versions of the same team and the only difference is how well they are executing that strategy.

I hope football does not become that more than it already has.

I still think that the best hope is that Richardson is there at 6 and the team picks up another second rounder from a team who jumps up for him.

Will Anderson will be gone by then (if, somehow he isn't, you run up to the podium to draft him with a big grin on your face). And I'm too wary of Jalen Carter.

And after those two, there is just a big mush of people who are all kind of the same, and it would be great to dip down a few spots and get effectively the same guy you would be getting at 6.

But if Richardson goes before 6, then I think that we are probably stuck because the value for the teams that would trade up isn't there.

I agree.

My gut is that the top 5 players picked are (in no particular order):
CJ Stroud
Bryce Young
Will Anderson
Anthony Richardson
Jalen Carter

That leaves the Lions with... Tyree Wilson? He seems to be the consensus pick given the positional value of an edge rusher, but he's older, has an injury concern and doesn't have a ton of burst.

Maybe he will work out. Hutchinson really started to thrive once the Lions moved him around and primarily had him rushing on the weak side of the formation. It's possible that given Wilson's size, he'll be perfect on the strong side.

I feel like I am talking myself into it.

A trade down would be great, but as albion mentioned, what's the incentive to do so? Unless someone has fallen in love with Levis, which seems to be a long shot at this point.

Right, I think there's an emerging consensus that there are 5 elite players in this draft, so pick 6 is either just after that dropoff, or (if lucky) just before it (due to someone else moving off the list). Feels like the single most likely of the 5 to drop to pick 6 is Carter because of off-field stuff and maybe sluggish metrics, but Richardson is the other possibility that I don't balk at when I see it happen in a mock draft engine.

I don't love trading up from 6 to 3-4-5 but... if the price is right I don't hate it.

I very much agree.

The Lions do have some extra draft capital due to the Stafford and Hockenson trades and if they really feel, as we do, that there is that drop off, and the price is right, why not go up and get the difference maker?

The other wildcard out there is that the Lions view the 6th overall pick as a boon and figure they won't likely be picking that high again for the near term and make a move to address the QB position and take either Richardson (if he falls) or Levis. This scenario makes me very, very nervous.

Speaking of QB's, I am very out on Hendon Hooker. He seems like a great dude, but he's old, he's coming off an ACL, and was successful in an offense that simply does not and cannot exist in the NFL and was the very same offense that convinced the Broncos to spend a 2nd round pick on Drew Lock with the notion that he could be a starting QB in this league. I don't like it.

This is, also, why I remain so pissed about that stupid last game between the Colts and Texans, where the Texans won on that last second pass and two point conversion, and the Baker Mayfield ridiculous drive game against the Raiders. I believe if just one of those games ends up like it should have, our pick is in the top 5 and we wouldn't need to be worrying about this shit!

PFN engine, dealt down from 18 to add a 3rd, nothing shocking...

Marvin Jones to wear No. 0 in second stint with Lions - ProFootballTalk

I assume the brain trust approves.

definitely down for agent zero

A dream scenario for me.

Still worrying about backup QB. Is Matt Ryan ready for a backup role yet? He's a high character dude, a locker room plus, and although practically everything else fell off in recent years his accuracy stayed close/within the top-10. Although he's practically a fossil I'm not sure he's any less fragile than Bridgewater.

I think he's ready to be a backup/mentor QB but I don't know if he's ready to be paid like one.

A contract that kicks in a nice bonus if he plays more than X snaps might be a decent enough incentive.

This is also where I'd lean heavy into the Hard Knocks/Dan Campbell "You've got choices. But this is a really fun team. Wouldn't you rather be here than elsewhere?"

dola: I agree with the overall point, though.

I would be very Lionsy to be 6-1 and then have Goff get injured for a month and lose five straight.

I like the coaches who don't even use the term backup QB. They call them second QB and consider it important enough to be treated like a starting position.

The Athletic just did a three round mock for every team. Here’s how the Lions played out:

No. 3 (via ARI): Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
No. 18: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
No. 55: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
No. 81: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Remaining picks: 152, 183, 194

The dream scenario for Detroit features finding a way up to No. 3, to pair Anderson with 2022 rookie standout Aidan Hutchinson. That said, given how well-stocked their roster has become, the Lions should have more options than just about any team in the league on Days 1 and 2.

Honestly, absent the contract with Montgomery, I would probably be on #TeamBijan in this thread, and perhaps the triviality of a 2y deal shouldn't really affect that. He may indeed be a true difference-maker at RB, and in the later stages of round one, the deal does represent some real value if that proves to be the case.

Agreed.

I like this mock. It shores up the defensive line both on the edge and in the interior and adds a potential difference maker on offense. I don’t love Hooker, but I could probably stomach spending a 3rd round pick on a roll of the dice on him.

I was listening to the Athletic Football podcast yesterday and former GM Randy Mueller really liked Hooker and didn’t think his age or injury are that bad. He does seem to have an old man/old school view of players, which is an interesting contrast to the takes of some of the younger analysts.

If I had a guess about Ryan, he will probably wait to see if someone gives him an opportunity to compete for a starting job. If not, he might even try to stay in shape for a team that has an injury. I just don't know if he is going to be willing to go into a camp to basically coach. He is eyeing an in studio job, and this will probably be his last year.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

One thing nice about this mock is that it is a Go For It draft for the Lions.

There's an argument that you could look at the Lions' history and think that this team could/should be happy with getting the #2 wildcard spot or winning a weak NFC North and then bowing out to a more talented team in the NFC playoffs. And if that's your vision, you let the draft come to you and just grab the best guard or CB or whatever that falls and you help build solid affordable depth.

This draft wants more than that. Guys like Anderson and Robinson are the sorts of DUDES who can help you go blow for blow with the Eagles or the 49ers in the NFC Championship.

I like it.

"ESPN reports the Lions have made a “strong contract offer” to veteran quarterback and former first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater."

We are locked in, fellas!

If they can sign a decent backup QB I'll be giddy with this offeason, and that's entirely before a draft that is loaded with capital.

We Lions fans have seen our hopes built up and then dashed a near-infinite amount of times, but it's hard for me to not be excited by Brad Holmes in particular these days, if only because there is obvious evidence that he's executing on a well-thought out, unique plan, with all the low-cost, short-term signings & pick stockpiling.

I'm seeing Detroit linked with Bijan Robinson, but in the 6th slot. For whatever reason (and these trends are hard to trace), he's not expected to get out of the top ten and all-tool RBs are still rare and will contribute right out of the gate. Draft them, use them up, don't pay for past performance.

At this point seems like I'm seeing Detroit linked with practically every non-QB available in the draft.

Jim: I'd love your take on the discussion we were talking about that they had on The Athletic Podcast where they were saying that veteran RB salaries are so depressed that a top-ten drafted RB is probably being overpaid, even with the rookie scale.

Thoughts?

On the one had, that's a pretty simple proposition, and I get it. On the other hand (and maybe this is just my 1980s showing), it feels like if you've got a chance to get a fresh-legged RB stud, you draft him and don't overthink it and convince yourself that you should instead get . . . Miles Sanders at half the price or whatever.

Okudah to the Falcons for a fifth rounder. (And he had some guaranteed money in his contract. The Falcons will now pay).

It feels almost inevitable that the Lions will now come out of at least the first two rounds with a cornerback. Probably will try to grab one in the first round.

Thanks, Quinntricia!

Okudah had some flashes last year, but ended up getting benched at the end of the season. It just didn’t work out here. There was a lot working against him from the COVID year, to Quinntricia and their terrible regime, the Achilles and then a change in management and scheme.

Maybe he’ll do better with a change of scenery and maybe a better fit at safety.

Dola: I like this move for the Falcons. You figure whoever you get with the fifth round pick is going to have about the same chance of hitting as Okudah has of turning it around. It is a low cost flyer on him becoming what he looked like when he was drafted in the top five.

Agreed.

yup


added: major value here is that by trading him for anything at all, the Lions offload about $5m in cap space this season... not inconsequential

I think true 3 down running backs are still worth a first and sometimes even a high-ish pick. However, true 3 down running backs are rare. Some guys play 3 downs because they're being paid to play 3 downs.

Thinking back to recent picks, Fournette really had no business going as high as he did at the time. He actually developed into a well rounded back, but not until he was in Tampa in a more limited role.

Zeke was guy I thought would be worh a top 10 pick and Dallas handled him pretty well for the most part. They rode him until he broke down and drafted someone to step in. They got every bit of value they could out of him but the extension was a huge mistake.

Saquon I didnt like as high as he went. He was a boom/bust runner. Those guys can put up some nice numbers but don't tend to impact winning all that much.

And under no circumstances do I think a 2nd contract is a good idea for a RB. The percentage of those that have worked out has been incredibly small.

Admittedly, it's hard to cling to "RBs are disposable." To the naive fans, they are names who get called all the time, they score TDs, they fumble, they are on the stats leaderboards, etc. They are often right there in the tier behind QB as the face of the franchise, even when they are merely replacement level.

Add in the value of the RB position in fantasy football, not to be trifled with, and that's another mark making it tough to ignore the position. You can have all the math on your side, but when that 5th round rookie fumbles at the goal line and you miss the playoffs, it's way more obvious than, say, your 5th round rookie safety biting on a play fake and giving up a 35 yard play in crunch time.

That would be unfortunate, because I'm starting to fall in love with the idea of the Falcons getting him at 8. Your reasoning is exactly why. Most RB aren't worth it, but a guy like this that rates out to be a real game-changing type back has some real value. You just go in knowing this is 5 years and probably done. Those second contacts are where you lose value.

The other hand is more along the lines of my thinking.

Let's say you're running a business and you need to hire a staff. You want a mix of people with very different skill sets. People to devise strategy, people to execute strategy, people to support other people, etc.

Why is a football team any different, even on the field? You're directing eleven players at once. It's usually, with the exception of quarterbacks, get the best "athlete", whatever that means, who can understand the playbook and do a set of things well.

Then there are a few players who can go beyond that and have an impact no matter what.

I go back to Bill Belichick a lot. He's the coach who seemed to get that idea of a set of things well in a way other coaches didn't. He could even switch between 34 and 43 on a single series of downs - that's how well he could define it.

So staffing a football team means defining your set of things, understanding when you just need a guy to do a thing well or whether it's good to have him able to go beyond that.

And running back, I think, is one of those sets that's mostly "find a hole and explode through it" and "catch a pass and do broken-field things" and "don't fumble." It's rarely innovation. Hole-finding is mostly understanding what the team is trying to do with its offensive line. Fumbling is discipline and coaching. Pass-catching is understanding scheme, being where the quarterback needs you - not needing the crazy WR downfield skills/speed/athleticism.

The question of running back things, then, may be things that younger people, reckless people, pure athleticism and strength, are better at. Experience only gets you so far. At least that's my theory on it.

So for an RB to worth that second contract, he has to be so good at something that it changes the game. How do we define that? And why wouldn't an early-round draft pick, before the potential cap-breaking second deal comes in, be worth it if he changes the game?

TL:DR, I think I would disagree with the podcast, but I would be very careful about drafting an RB that high, because the committee of young 3rd-6th rounders approach works. Is Robinson that good? I don't know. Buzz seems to indicate yes, for now, and that's why he won't be there at 18.

I like Matt Waldman a good deal. Read this bit on Richardson. Great read, and insightful into next level scouting.

Anthony Richardson RSP Sample Scouting Report - Footballguys

And, if you’re moved to, go buy the RSP.

Thanks for sharing this. It was an excellent read and great analysis.

Anthony Richardson will be a fascinating player to watch. There does seem to be a pretty big divide on his projections between the younger NFL folks/analysts (for) and the older NFL folks/analysts (against).

I used to listen to Lombardi's podcast, but found other podcasts I enjoyed more.

Random fanspeak mock, no trades:

6: R1 P6 EDGE Tyree Wilson - Texas Tech
18: R1 P18 RB Bijan Robinson - Texas
48: R2 P17 LB Jack Campbell - Iowa
55: R2 P24 TE Sam LaPorta - Iowa
81: R3 P18 CB Garrett Williams - Syracuse
152: R5 P17 DL Zacch Pickens - South Carolina
159: R5 P24 WR Kayshon Boutte - LSU
183: R6 P6 QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson - UCLA
194: R6 P17 DL Moro Ojomo - Texas

A solid draft that addresses pretty much all areas of need and upgrades the offense. I love DTR in the 6th.

I just did a mock on Pro Football Network with trades. It was pretty ridiculous:

18. Bryan Breese - DT, Clemson
24. Bijan Robinson - RB, Texas
48. Drew Sanders - LB, Arkansas
56. Keanu Benton - DT, Wisconsin
81. Hendon Hooker - QB, Tennessee
92. Sam LaPorta - TE, Iowa
104. Zach Harrison - DE, Ohio State
152. Kei’Trel Clark - CB, Louisville
183. Sidy Sow - G, Eastern Michigan

The kicker is that, with separate trades with Jacksonville and Cincinnat to move back on this draft, we grabbed DE Josh Allen and WR Tyler Boyd.

Like I said, ridiculous.

Dane Brugler - The Athletic's draft guru did a full 7 round mock for all teams. Here's what he had for the Lions:

Detroit Lions

1 (6): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
1 (18): Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
2 (48): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
2 (55): Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
3 (81): Chandler Zavala, G, NC State
5 (152): Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
5 (159): Thomas Incoom, Edge, Central Michigan
6 (183): Jerrod Clark, DT, Coastal Carolina
6 (194): John Ojukwu, OT, Boise State

I don't love the first round, but like the second round.

The boy and I did a 4-round mock for the Lions... less "holding back" here since he's in it for fun, and... after the vanilla pick at 6, whoa:

DET
6. Christian Gonzalez
CB Oregon
DET

34.
Darnell Washington
TE Georgia
DET

48.
Trenton Simpson
LB Clemson
DET

57.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB Alabama
DET

81.
Sam LaPorta
TE Iowa

acquired via trade-down:

S B.Baker
2024 GB 3rd

I just saw McShay & Kiper's most recent joint mock.

They had the Lions taking:

1(6): Tyree Wilson, DE
1(18): Calijah Kancey, DT
2(48): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
2(55): Drew Sanders, LB
3(81): Luke Schoonmaker, TE

Not bad. At the moment, I have really come around to the idea that I want William Anderson, Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson at Six. I won't be crushed if that's not the direction the Lions go, but I really feel like defensive line is still a big need. Anderson could be a really effective pass rusher and both Carter and Wilson could help generate some QB pressure, but really shore up the run defense.

Wilson is great against the run and Hutchinson was much more effective as a weakside edge and Wilson seems to have the size and strength to play on the strong side and complement Hutchinson well. He's not explosive, but he seems to fit what the Lions are looking for in terms of drive, motor, etc.

If the Lions brass feel Carter is good to go off-field-wise, he is the perfect fit and exactly what they need.

I keep coming back to my guy at Motor City Football on Tyree Wilson:
I'd like to see us do something else at #6. I'm good with Carter if the Lions heard what they need to in his visit, or a CB. I trust the leadership (weird to say that about the Lions) but if they take Wilson, I'm gonna cringe a bit.

NFL suspends five players, including four Lions, for violating gambling policy

Lions gonna Lion.