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I don't understand the brit night kill myself, unless he said something that seemed like a tell about a role (I haven't read back on his posts).
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Hey! I said something... :) |
As of Post 402
EagleFan 2-Fontisian(355), Jag(356) Shoveler 1-EagleFan(360) Timmae 1-Path(361) Nightfall 1-EagleFan(360) |
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Trying to frame EF seems most likely to me, although it feels very obvious. Quote:
To be honest, I was expecting you or font to get taken out. |
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Well he was on the block until 9:59 so it would have to be a pretty damned solid read to believe that when he didn't reveal at any stage. For that to work it would have to be an early read and then the wolves weren't around going into the last hour or so. I don't think wolves around near deadline would think he could be seer and not reveal when his head is on the block at 9:58. |
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Yeah I used to think that. That said I think wolf-people are savvy enough to move their vote around even if it's all village. |
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So if the wolves felt they had a read on brit earlier in the day, we know now that they were wrong. If they did not have a read on brit, why take him out? |
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Well, that's kind of the question I've been asking myself all day. If someone does find an early read then that would be interesting as it suggests (to me at least) wolves who weren't around near deadline. The obvious answer seems to be setting up Eagle and/or cheeki. The wolves don't know who is going to die when they put in the order so it would have to be a conditional - "kill cheeki unless he is lynched, in which case kill Brit". I'm struggling to see why a wolf Eagle would put in that order. |
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Very interesting theory. I am absolutely convinced that EF is not a wolf. He would not have called for nightfall if he were. However, I don't necessarily buy his "piggybacking" read on Shoveler. |
I'm going to fall back on voting for the guy with least posts at the moment. A vote on Autumn that I questioned him about, an explanation that he wanted to see how "things play out" and then moving it to cheeki, with non-committal explanation about feeling better about the other lead-getters at the time. I'd say the most significant comment is offering support to Eagle last night but, at the time, that might have been the wise wolf-play - if they were expecting the village to take out Eagle anyway. Also the (admittedly vague) theory of an inexperienced/not-around-at-deadline wolf team.
Mostly a prod vote though. Vote Raven |
Yeah, I'm crap at role-reading but I don't see any seer hints from Brit. Role discussion has been more on the table than usual because of Vaimes but pretty much nothing. He hard-claimed vanilla villager at 19:10. I don't think the wolves thought Brit was the seer. In fact I'd go as far as saying that he would be one of the last people I'd kill if I was seer-hunting.
Brit posted reading Vaimes and Chief as neutral-to-good for what it's worth. |
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I have to run my son to day care, so I'll be back shortly to address this. But that last sentence was not my theory, someone else theorized that not me. |
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I have heard this a few times from a number of posters. Strangely enough, I don't know why this is. I don't have a strategy devised to make me hard to read. Just Chief being Chief, I guess. |
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Your experience notwithstanding, the BG here at FOFC usually survives the attack and retains their ability to protect. |
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I said that last earlier when I didn't fully understand the role, and I thought your strategy was to actually come out as the Martyr. If you were indeed the Martyr and not night killed that night, I think it's quite logical to lynch you at that point. That doesn't mean I won't lynch you on general principle, though. Your strategy only works to confuse the village, and so to my thinking, you are currently a negative for the village. That and your support for font's over the top run at EF. |
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Why? I don't understand why you are coming at him so hard. Even if you're actually the seer, you still wouldn't know anything. You get some whiff of a read and then you marry yourself to it like concrete bricks on a mafia rat in the Hudson. Your blind pursuit and lack of consideration for any other options is a detriment to the village. Right now, I view your actions as a negative to the village, and if I don't get a wolf read on someone, I will likely vote you. |
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FWIW I find that style useful but if you're the one doing them you should do whatever you find most comfortable. |
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Why? Not picking on you but I don't know how you think yet. |
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But you've suggested yourself that the Brit kill suggests wolves that may not be that experienced. |
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Exactly. New people/transports from other boards, pay attention here. We have been playing so long, we don't even claim to be villagers anymore at the start, unless pressed. It used to be this joke that our first post would always claim vanilla villager. We even lynched people who didn't do this! We have now gravitated to just assuming everyone is presumed to be a villager (no need to state it) unless they say otherwise or do something to cast doubt on that presumption. |
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Ditto my statement on font. It's a toss up between you two for me because I don't think either of you are helping the village. |
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I think it serves you well. |
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Huge +1. There are no mechanics in the game which would allow font to be that sure before the first deadline. If I am wrong and there are hidden mechanics, I would love for her to come out and explain. |
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I'm paraphrasing your quotes here, but... Why did you put this theory on me, when YOU are actually the one who keeps suggesting it? |
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Neither am I. If I didn't get a villager read on EF's frustration after this, I would also be very much questioning this move. |
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Narc can answer for himself but I didn't read what he wrote as putting his theory on you. Rather, I read it as just another reason to toss his vote your way. |
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I actually am wondering on Shoveler as well. Shoveler and Grover, who went early and completely off the chart from candidates with his Autumn vote. Perhaps he was busy after the morning, but it is an odd outlier vote that sounds traditionally wolfish to me. Now as to the nightfall. That's chickenshit, EF. You're better than that. I understand the irritation, but you got to handle it better. |
I love reading along when someone is catching up. Sometimes I find things I missed.
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I see Shoveler has come back to responding to this, but EF's point resonates with me for some reason. Life gets in the way, but sometimes it's a strategy to hide behind. So it is something I am considering. |
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I generally find that not commenting at all when you're around and a big debate is going around is wolfish behavior, keeping a low profile while the villagers fight it out. So whatever the reason, it looks bad to not be participating. If I didn't know I was at my other job from 4-ish on and unable to be online, I would look askance at my own history of non-participation yesterday evening. It just doesn't look good. As to your last point and I see Narc raises it later, it is a very curious move for sure. |
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I agree that EF probably wasn't scanned, given the circumstances. I don't agree that should put him back on the block. I just think it delays his scan to tonight. |
CR: I mentioned a couple of times yesterday I wasn't going to be around past 5PM EST, due to my bowling league. That will happen again tonight.
That's why my innocuous vote on Jackal never moved. |
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Great post. Even more at issue is that even if Zinto allowed the wolves to make conditionals based on the lynch results, he wouldn't have told them what happens in a tie. Just how many conditionals would have had to be sent in this situation? No, I think brit was targeted for a kill earlier than the deadline. That said, it seems clear the wolves wanted to take out a leading vote getter, since brit was high on the block most of the day. Doing so seems to be nonsensical. My only thought is that they might have gotten a seer read off of him and decided that was more important. And that would mean EF is not a wolf because they would not leave a wolf EF as the one surviving candidate with two villagers in a three-man lynch vote (at least not to kill a possible seer on a whim--they would have held off and killed brit the next night). |
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Trust me, no one likes it. I posted it after you posted this, but a few posts up on this one, I call out EF for his move. It's a crap move, and I can't stand it. It's just a game, people. |
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Good point. That just makes the move even more curious. It would like worse for EF to me, but I just don't read his reactions to being targeted as being wolfish. EF is brilliant and he could be playing us with this, but I don't think so. We have all been there, feeling helpless that no one will listen to what we're saying or seems to be against us for no reason at all. It might be for meta-ish reasons, but what font said she had heard is true: villagers tend to get very irrational when targeted. And often upset and do emotional things. |
Yep I completely understand that my intended participation yesterday versus the actual participation looks bad. I will try to rectify that going forward, but if it is to late, I guess it will be a lesson learned.
That being said. I'll be paying attention to the thread for the next couple hours, but I'm taking my son outside and then making him lunch. So I wont be at the computer to post. I guess I need to be more specific when I say I am "around". I can answer any questions and make comments once he goes down for a nap in a couple hours. |
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Shoveler, I would like to hear more of your thoughts on this too (path's response above is in response to Shoveler) |
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Double-edged sword actually. It stops people from lynching me early, because they don't want to risk losing both a possible roled player and an experienced player. But at some point, they vote to remove me on the basis that they can't trust me, even when I am a full on villager. That and the circular reasoning that if I am still alive after Day Three, I must be a wolf lol. |
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Heh... hope it helps! |
As of Post 439
EagleFan 2-Fontisian(355), Jag(356) Shoveler 1-EagleFan(360) Timmae 1-Path(361) Raven 1-Narcizo(410) Nightfall 1-EagleFan(360) |
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WOLF!!! :D Okay, I kinda remember that but forgot. |
And forgive me not looking back, Grover, but why The Jackal? Regular meta/no-read Day One vote?
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Or Autumn, whoever you voted for. I forget and I don't have the vote list handy here.
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This. I've been there. I saw CF do it in the Mars game. I saw Grover do it when he called for nightfall. I saw GE respond this way when voted out early twice in a row (though he Duked the first game). And it seems to be EF's response here. It's an annoyed "fk this stupid game. I quit." emotional response to being lynched when you're a villager and no one believes you. |
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Based on a conversation i had with autumn while we ran the last game. I made the comment to him that font and narc seemed to draw the early night kills. He basically told me that was standard wolf procedure to take out the villagers that were the highest threats early. Chief was also mentioned as a top 3 target. |
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Because he's a Redskins fan. Just the random vote to get discussion going. No other reason. |
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This thought came to me too, but only after I realized it was his own theory. When I originally read it, and without knowing whose theory it was, it sounded like he was pinning it on me since it was all lumped together in one paragraph. Regardless, I am glad I clarified, because others may read it the way I originally did. |
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OK. So your last post was #204: Quote:
Cool. But at that time, here was the vote (piecing together from Narcizo's recap): Britrock 4 -- JAG (69), Autumn (107), Narc (192), path (193) Cheeki 2 -- Shoveler (63), Jackal (160) Vaimes 2 -- Britrock (115), Cheeki (179) EagleFan 2 -- fontisian (61), Vaimes (71) Autumn 2 -- timmae (99), Raven (171) fontisian 1 -- EagleFan (96) Jackal 1 -- Grover (104) Things were clearly consolidating. But you still left your vote out there. |
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And I felt at the time, that I did not have nearly enough information to go off of to make a solid vote. Not seeing the board again until after deadline makes it hard to vote in the end. |
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But nobody has a solid day 1 read. And it wasn't like things were switching all over, the last vote before your post #204 was at 12:58 Pacific (mine on Brit). Post 204 was at 1:37 Pacific. The vote contenders were taking shape and you just decided not to, and that raises an eyebrow for me. |
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Or, I can jump on and vote for someone else during the day and perhaps get labeled as "piggybacking" my vote like someone else apparently did and raise an eyebrow. *Shrug* Sorry for my inactivity. |
Passive aggressiveness is always an attractive look.
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Okay, then let me ask you this. How exactly was "voting consolidating" Anybody could have flipped to Jackal and made him a possible front runner to brit. Just because in hindsight people had made their final choices at that time, it doesn't mean that we knew it was consolidating, as you say it was. It still could have gone any number of possible ways. |
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The Jackal didn't have even one vote when you voted for him. Assuming path's count is correct, there was a 4 vote candidate and several 2 vote candidates to go with. You could have even pushed up one of the one vote candidates to create another 2 vote candidate. path is correct that your vote has the look of someone trying to avoid making a vote he can be judged for after the lynch. |
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Yeah, sorry about that. What path said. I tend not to be at my clearest after the better part of the day talking to myself. I don't think we'll get much explanation into Brit being killed until after the game but at the moment I'm leaning towards inexperienced wolf/ves around at the time possibly with experienced wolf/ves not available. Of course I fit that profile as well but hey ho. |
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These numbers are wrong in some places, which makes it hard to accurately follow yesterday's action. cheeki jumped from 3 to 5 in one vote (see below). Not sure how many other errors there are. I'd fix it and repost, but I am at work and don't have the time to redo all the color coding. Anyone want to take on this task? #221 Cheeki unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Brit (5) / Brit 5, Cheek 3, Vaimes 2, Eagle 2 #226 Chief votes Cheeki (5) / Brit 5, Cheek 5, Vaimes 2, Eagle 2 |
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I recognise your problem as its what I face all the time. My strategy is to always move my vote to someone who already has votes if my vote is a sole vote. Unless I feel strongly that my vote is right or all the other votes are wrong. It took me a fair few games to hone this strategy though and its far from ideal but thats the price I pay for, once upon a time, playing an American Football sim. |
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Again. Jackal was my original vote when we all had nothing to go on. Like everybody else making votes to make votes. If this is how people are going to look at things when personal obligations get in the way, this is going to be my last WW game. |
YesterDay, EF was the best lynch candidate, because he was scummy while britrock and cheeki were blatantly town.
ToDay, he is near confirmed scum. Read these posts and tell me he isn't. Quote:
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Now there are two possible explanation for that unvote and revote seconds before the deadline. 1. EF's had genuinely given up on the game, only to come back and try to help town, as he claims here: Quote:
2. He is scum, he unvoted in the hopes that he would be able to revote at the last second and tie up the lynch, with any luck at least killing town!Cheeki. "But, fonti, if EF did that, wouldn't he come into Day 2 acting like he was a dead man?" You're right, other font. And that's exactly what he did: Quote:
I don't want to go into his mood, because, IMO, losing your shit like this as a scum tactic is a really shitty thing to do. It puts me into a position where if I want to push my case on someone who seems like obvious scum, I have to question the truth behind their feelings, and if I'm wrong, then I'm being a dick to them. I will say that CF did the same thing in the rebirth game to stop people from voting him. |
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What path is saying is that there was enough evidence of the direction of the vote out there when you posted that you would be leaving for the day at 2 p.m. EST or whatever it was, for you to switch from an irrelevant Day One vote to a vote on a player who at that point was a candidate (many such candidates were available). No one has more personal obligations than me. I work a second job where I can't post late and I am never on at deadline. But I still usually manage to get my vote on someone at least somewhat relevant. I'll give you a pass that you're newer and that this isn't necessarily a wolfish move, but a newbie move, but path is entirely correct that you left your vote on a random player when better options were available. |
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I wouldn't get to worked up over this. It's the nature of the game to review all the available information, ask questions, and what not. Just play the game to the best of your availability. |
vote fontisian
Simply based on her aggressive, nearly ruthless attacking on EF being a wolf. I believe EF is innocent and that font is covering for herself by continually going after EF. |
font, if he is playing a game to set himself up as a wolf with you as his foil, then he chose well. You allowed the hypothetical wolf EF to jump on your ardent and unwavering pursuit of him by not sitting back and making the long play and seeing what information develops. You locked on him like a Patriot missile and kept hammering that nail over and over.
You made yourself look way over the top when we ALL know you have no information but your gut. Anyone who goes in on like that, we're not going to trust you. If EF has played up the victim role, it is because of your incessant attacks on him. So I am not buying that he is a wolf. And that's pretty much your fault. |
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The reaction to pressure entirely depends on the player. I've seen wolves genuinely fall apart, wolves fake falling apart, and townies lose it in equal numbers. When the mindset doesn't match up, and the reaction doesn't fit with their previous play, then I start to get suspicious. |
As far as out of game commitments... I let it affect my thinking once in an early game and I regretted it immediately. We all have lives that get in the way. I will take any posted OOG commitments into account when analyzing. Until someone shows that they cannot be trusted (i.e. uses an OOG item to their advantage) that is. Grover's statement yesterday (and for tonight) is noted. I don't hold bowling against him (I grew up in Wisconsin after all!).
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Let's try this. Why do you think EF is town? |
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Suspicious is fine. Rock solid in your conviction, on Day One, with no objective evidence and constantly posting and re-posting your opinion? That just comes off way nutty. I'm not following crazy to the promised land, sorry. |
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Try bouncing/feeding a (nearly) 5 month old on your knee and typing with one finger on a phone with your other hand while the baby constantly grabs for the phone! lol |
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Catching up - I don't know about EF not calling nightfall as a wolf. I wouldn't discount anyone from trying it if they felt cornered, especially with it getting attention as a villager move recently. |
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Haha okay, Raven takes it. ;) |
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I cannot afford to let things slip by, and I'm glad I didn't here, when my pressure on EF is the reason he was forced to out himself as scum yesterDay. You cannot seriously decide not to follow a good case because the person making it has too much conviction. That's insane. |
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YesterDay, I was almost certain that EF was a better lynch than Cheeki and brit, because he had acted in an increasingly scummy manner while Cheeki and brit had been very town. I acted on that certainty. Deal with it. |
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Damn. We're expecting twins in a few months. I better find a mind controlled phone now. |
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Says you. Everyone has a different playstyle. Why should I immediately believe what you're saying here? |
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[quote]I can name one thing that I do NOT think is a scum tell that I keep seeing people over here paint as one, though: 'Bloodthirsty'. I keep being accused of being this word when I'm town. And I think it's more indicative of a town mindset than a scum one, to be honest. Scum tend to shy away from accountability when it comes to lynching people, and have more...self-awareness than to have that kind of attitude towards lynching.[quote] Source: Prophhicus Mentor QT Thing - QuickTopic free message board hosting Can you tell me why you think EF is town? |
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Awesome. Congrats! (and good luck with the phone!) |
Because absolutely nothing EF has done has convinced me that he could be a wolf.
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If it's a good case, I will follow it. But you didn't make a good case. You went on a hunch. I don't trust your hunches. I don't find that you are right enough to follow them. You see conviction. I see a narrow and closed mind who won't consider any information which doesn't agree with your initial impression. I have played many times with players with your approach and more often than not, it's bad to follow such players. Rely on the evidence. |
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And that is why you will lose. |
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Awesome. Congrats Shoveler! |
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No. EF is scum. |
I'm not sure I can express how insulting it is to be told to "rely on the evidence," when I've outlined the evidence for an EF lynch and no evidence to oppose it has been offered other that that I'm "aggressive."
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He struck me as someone who was very frustrated with being attacked again on the hunch of someone who is, frankly, an aggravating player to receive attention from. He didn't strike me as someone operating on reason and rationality. That first vote was made on frustration. The second vote was an attempt to save himself. Ties at FOFC are often no lynches, so it makes sense to me that EF was betting on that when he made that vote. |
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Deal with it? |
I think the kill on Britrock most likely simply indicates someone putting in the kill earlier in the day and not being around at deadline. I'm not going to dig further than that because I don't think it's fun to catch people in that sense, but he would have been a fairly safe choice a couple hours earlier, and he's a strong villager. He also has played at the BGG site, so may be more familiar to those players than some of us who have only played here.
I am actually learning toward EF. I think he could be just as frustrated as a wolf, after getting put in the lead two Day 1s in a row. It's even more frustrating when you get picked out of a hat as a wolf. Probably a decent target for not having been scanned last night too. |
I'm very surprised you're still where you are at, fontisian.
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[quote=fontisian;3019260]Here's a quote from a mentor chat with Voxxicus, someone who's opinion on the game I respect immensely.
[quote]I can name one thing that I do NOT think is a scum tell that I keep seeing people over here paint as one, though: 'Bloodthirsty'. I keep being accused of being this word when I'm town. And I think it's more indicative of a town mindset than a scum one, to be honest. Scum tend to shy away from accountability when it comes to lynching people, and have more...self-awareness than to have that kind of attitude towards lynching. Quote:
That play style may fit your personality, but it doesn't fit for most of us. Also, I do not think it comes across the way you think it comes across. Also, we know that you're smart enough not to play bloodthirsty only as villager and something different when wolf. That would be completely transparent. |
As of Post 486
EagleFan 2-Fontisian(355), Jag(356) Shoveler 1-EagleFan(360) Timmae 1-Path(361) Raven 1-Narcizo(410) Fontisian 1-Grover(462) Nightfall 1-EagleFan(360) |
We have a vote count?
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Mind reading eh
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I haven't attacked EF before this game. In fact, I townread him for the past two games. We have already discussed this in this thread. If EF was betting on a no-lynch, why did he say he was hoping for a lynch on both him and Cheeki? |
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So, your argument is that it's not alignment indicative for me? |
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I still feel bad about that font. Nothing personal. ;) I actually think strong convictions one way or the other are fine as long as people aren't pushing their views by overriding others' thoughts. |
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If you were playing every game with a different set of players, it would make sense. But, at FOFC, you're playing every game with roughly the same set of players. I don't believe you will play bloodthirsty every time you are a villager and completely different when a wolf. If you did, you'd blow your cover every time you were wolf. |
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Because you are smart enough to know that the wolves messed up on the nightkill, the EF situation resolves itself without a lynch and the better value for the village is trying to suss out who was hiding where on what could very well be a three way village vote yesterday. So for me your motivations for pushing EF today come into question. |
lots of meetings today, will chime in some later
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Where is Vaimes?
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Lurking, it would appear. |
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I suspect the britrock kill was either made because they thought he was the seer or made to make EF look good. I don't care to analyze a kill that I have relatively little information about. |
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