I think Qwik is just trying to be a smartass Jedi, which is almost making me suspocious because if he is a Sith he has made just about the perfect move to get himself looking good. Bizzare considering the raeson he got heat in the first place was because it was pointed out that wolves had used such a tactic before successfully!

However, I was semi-suspicious of Lahum on day 1 due to the convertion claim, then the random vote getting called on. Today with the allegation of being set up, I think he is fishy nough for a vote.

Vote Lathum

I don't have a good defense for Lathum, although up until the "they set me up by killing Alan" post I didn't see anything from Lathum that is much different than his normal play.

If we end up with a tight race like this at the end of the day I think that is beneficial to the Jedi. If we kill Lathum that doesn't go towards my initial thought on gaining trust/distrust of the three guys from yesterday, but two days worth of voting data in tight races should give us a lot of information to work with as well. So I think that is about a wash.

If Lathum is lynched today as a Sith, then
1.) Sweet, one down
2.) What does this mean about Qwikshot?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

If Quikshot is lynched today as a Sith, then
1.) Sweet, one down
2.) What does this mean about Lathum?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

Now, flip those assumptions around:

If Qwikshot is lynched today as a Jedi, then
1.) Dammit, we gave the Sith a free pass for two days
2.) What does this mean about Lathum?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

If Lathum is lynched today as a Jedi, then
1.) Dammit
2.) Is anyone not voting for Qwikshot on Day 3, absent a seer scan?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

Hoops, I don't quite get your logic. Are you essentially saying that we should lynch Jedi so we can cast suspicion on the people who voted for him and clear those who didn't? Surely we'd just end up blindly lynching whoever was the highest vote count from yesterday that hasn't yet been lynched? Isn't it much better if we actually vote for who we think is most likely to be a Sith, as opposed to who would clear/incriminate the most people if they turn up Jedi? What you sugest is voting with a negative mindset and taking the wrong approach IMHO.

Desnudo, if you ask me if I think it is more likely that Lathum is a Sith than Qwik is a Sith, then I would say yes. But that is by a pretty narrow margin.

Assuming 4 Sith, there is a random 20% chance that anyone is a Sith. So someone you have no read on is 20%.

I would put both Lathum and Qwikshot in the 25-30% range as far as likelihood.

The chances of two random candidates both being Jedi is 64% (0.8 * 0.8).
If I assign a 30% likelihood, individually, to each of these guys being Sith, then there is a 51% chance that they are both Jedi (0.7 * 0.7).

If they are both Jedi, which I think is just as likely (if not moreso) than 1/1 Jedi/Sith split between them, then where are we?

At this point, if I switch my vote from Qwik to Lathum it is only to try and draw action in the other direction rather than reflecting confidence in one candidate over the other.

Tanglewood, if you have a high degree of certainty in your vote then absolutely. The first rule with your vote is to hang a wolf.

If you aren't certain, and I'm saying that I'm not, then I would rather look at broader implications. All things being equal (or close to it), what gives me more information?

I recognize by taking this stand that I'm starting to create associations with Lathum in people's minds because people are convinced he is a Sith. If the vote stands up, we'll find that out tonight.

If Lathum and I are both Sith I would have abandoned this position a few hours ago. Or never taken it in the first place.

"I will be shocked if Qwikshot is a Sith" - Desnudo doesn't think Qwik is Sith

"So basically people are voting for Qwik for clarity, knowing that he's 99% a jedi" - the only people who are 99% sure on Jedi are the Sith and possibly the seer if he viewed Qwik on Night 0 or Night 1.

I'm sorry that you don't like my argument, but I think you are making a huge inductive leap going from saying you believe Qwik to saying that everyone is voting for clarity.

No i don't thikn you're in league with Lathum as such, just that you (to me) seem a bit misguided.

No I am not certain about Lathum, there are very few situations in WW where you can be certain about anyone on anything. But if I am 40% sure of Lathum being a Sith compared with 30% for Qwik, then I wil vote Lathum every time. The goal of voting is to lynch baddies, so you should have to vote for who you suspect more almost regardless of the situation IMHO*.


*The only exception off the top of my head is if you suspect A the most, B a bit and C not at all, but only B and C are gaining interest from the village and are close in vote total. Then you should vote B in order to get a lynch if neccesary.

I put Qwik around 5%. Lathum probably around 35%. I don't see the risk/reward in Qwik's strategy if he is evil. The reward isn't high enough for the risk involved.

The only way Qwik is a Sith is if he is the hidden one because he was surely scanned last night as an obvious target. And must have known that he would surely be scanned last night. Even if he wasn't last night, he's got to be high on the seer's list.

Well what else are they voting for then? I don't want to go down this path again with you. Does anyone think Qwik is really a Sith?

I, for one, do not think he is, but I'm not really prepared to give percentages about it. To me, Lathum is much more suspicious compared to Qwik, hence my vote.

Man, I really want to post this long post about voting strategy right now, but that would be uncool. So I'll just sit here on my own thoughts, and discuss them after the game is over.

Carry on. :)

updated vote count:

Lathum-Barkeep, Pennywisesb, Desnudo, Sackattack, Dubb, JeeberD, Grammaticus, KWhit, Tanglewood (9)

Qwik-Hoops, Cartman, McKerney, SnDvls, Schmidty, KingFC (6)

Tanglewood-Lathum (1)

You can PM your thoughts to me Vince! I need some action!

*mutters something about always dying early*

Stay out.... :D

Tangle, misguided in what sense?
a.) that I don't think that Lathum = Sith
b.) that my voting rationale doesn't make sense to you?
c.) Other

More than one could apply, I suppose ...

b

Misguided is a strong word, but I can't hink of anything else appropriate at the moment. If you have Qwik and Lathum at even or very, very close, then it makes sense. But if one has a preference, even a slight one, one way or the other I'd think it would be sensible to commit on that basis rather than a 'informational' basis.

He does have them both at 25-30%. Where I disagree with him is on those probabilities.

I'm actually just enjoying the chance to talk werewolf with you, as we have played a couple of games together in the past and I haven't seen you drawn into the conversation all that much. So I'm glad on some level to see you taking part, even if it is questioning me.

In terms of the vote, there are a lot of different ways to try and accomplish their goals. Obviously Qwikshot is using one that is a little bit different than most people usually adopt. One of my big drivers is building a circle of trust. In doing this, I think that it makes the decisions later in the game much easier for the villagers. The strategy that I adopted today was intended to help begin creating that circle (in the event that Qwik was/is Jedi) or else creating a obvious gameplan for where to go next (if Qwik was/is Sith).

Now I completely get the idea that bagging a Sith now is more important than building a circle of trust for later. And that is almost always true. But remember that in Saldana's last game (Harry Potter) the villagers got wolves on the first two days, but were not successful in building a circle of trust. And that really haunted them in the latter part of the game.

Ideally you want to accomplish both objectives - wolves early, trust early. But this is my best attempt at explaining my play to you. Both for today and across pretty much every game I play. Intelligent people can choose to agree or disagree with it; I certainly try to learn from what other people are doing in these games.


By now I've reached a tipping point, where a vote change is going to be suspicious. So I'm going to sit back, hope that when Lathum is lynched that he is revealed as a Sith, and that I will have to work hard to justify my Jedi-ness (is that a word) to the masses tomorrow.

Desnudo, the problem is that I don't have the probabilities of anyone moved very far from 20%, in either direction, at this point.

I know, I disagree with you about the probabilities you've placed on people.

Anyway, let's say Qwik is the hidden Sith. Can we agree that for this strategy to work, he must be the shielded one since you are basically begging to be scanned by the seer? So the strategy is: play the bounceback that occurs after voting for yourself and get scanned and "cleared" by the seer. Even if you are lynched, you show up as a jedi which will spread confusion.

Which brings me to my next point: Qwik will likely show as a jedi whether he is good or evil unless the Sith took a monumental risk that he would never be scanned. So the information we gather from his death will not necessarily be all that valuable and may in fact play right into their hands.

This is a good point. I'm not sure what to think about Qwik right now, as my vote for him yesterday was basically a first-day vote.

I'm not convinced he IS a Sith at this point, because I don't see the percentage in his play, but this is perhaps the best speculation I've seen yet as to what potential benefit Qwik *could* see in voting for himself on the first day.

Desnudo, I'll agree with you that if he is a "cunning wolf" that the information we gain is very damaging. I had not even thought about it in that context. For the hardcore Star Wars guys out there, is there any sort of precedent out there for something like this? I know that the Sith are hard to root out in life, but I don't know of any such issues in death from my readings.

In terms of likelihood of scanning him, I definitely agree that he increases his chances of being scanned by taking this approach in comparison to playiing a low-profile game. I don't know if it is a cinch that he is scanned, but I completely concede the point you are making.

Even with this, the only way that this play makes sense to me (Sith as cunning coming out with the vote-self on Day 1) is if they have pretty strong starting numbers and think that they can buy multiple days of time with this strategy for the others. It would seem to make more sense for him to draw attention to himself to save someone else later in the game, rather than bringing the focus to himself at the outset.

Third attempt to get this post in.

Lathum's post does not make sense and I think Qwik is a Jedi. Eaglesfans was targeted and the last things we was saying was that we should take a look at Qwik. If Qwik is a Sith, I don't see why he would get rid of Eagles as that would draw even more suspicion to him.

VOTE LATHUM

1 hour 15 minutes till the deadline, correct?

AE, I think it is 2:15 to the deadline. Saldana pushed it back since he wouldn't be at his PC.

I'm out between now and the deadline. Looks like there wasn't much to catch up on since I left work :)

Thanks hoops.

Longer than that, I'm pretty sure. Page 8, I think, he's got a deadline of 10:30 EST, and it's only just now 9 EST. Still another 1:30 to go, 1:30ish after your post.

That said, we're still waiting on ardent, stkelly52 and Qwikshot to vote, if my count is correct.

After reading all of this, I am still very suspicious of Barkeep, but I can't really explain why, however, no one else is going to vote for him, so a Barkeep vote would be wasted. I feel I am left to choose between Lathum and Qwik. While they are both suspicious, I just feel more confident in Qwik.
Vote Lathum

I didn't review the evidence on him to be honest, but enough of you seem to believe he tripped up. I doubt it myself, as he would likely have changed his vote to qwik by now if that were the case. I find the barkeep argument interesting myself.

Vote Lathum

Ardent the argument I made against lathum or the one st is making against me? One I argee with, the other is bunk :)

:)

I sense a disturbance in the Force.

Sorry, I had beans for dinner

I have typed my name more times than I ever want to again, and I still have 3 pages to go. Sigh.

If you use Firefox, you only have to do it once per page, and then just keep clicking the next button and it will find every instance of it on the page.

Nice. :)

I can use Firefox to type papers?

Dola, anyone got some really cool long term and short term goals I can have?

Longterm I think you eventually want to see a game at every NFL stadium.

Triple dola, anyone have specific and realistic educational goals and specific plans to meet those goals?

By that I mean, goals I can use in my autobiography, of course. :)

Dola, there goes my triple.

I'm sure you can find a way. :)

Listen just cause Jeeber got to be mod doesn't mean you dola your way there too!

LOL. Sorry, I'm so tired of writing about myself. Seriously, I just started consolidating stuff. If I ever wrote a real autobiography, the first 12 years would definitely not fit in five pages, much less the one I gave it in this paper.

Sigh. :(

So why do you think Taz and Tangle faught Lathum? Seems suspicous to me :D

It was self defense!

Well I am sorry to see a Jedi die, even one I voted for. However, I actually think I have a Sith as opposed to just feeling uneasy about play.

Hoops has been doing what he does best as a wolf: making lists that cast suspicion all the while not acting on the suspicion. Makes him seem villagerish while not actually being a villager. Pending revelations that's where my vote is going.

I find it interesting that the vital announcement said not to construe the battle as an indication of Tanglewood and Taz's roles, but made no mention of whether to do so for Lathum.

The quote about "destroying me now will cost us the benefit of my strength and wisdom for the remainder of the mission," as well as his ability to break the Force hold, makes me wonder if we just lost the bodyguard. :(

I had a list of four names for today and voted for the name at the top of my list. I did this early and did not move from it, despite feeling some pressure to do so.

What I did not do today was vote for a known Jedi (that was Day 1 with Eagles).

It's easy to say in hindsight, but Lathum's play on Day 1 didn't make me think he was a Sith. It just made me think that he was reacting quickly/emotionally like he often does in werewolf. Some people put a lot of thought into every word they post; Lathum is not in that category.

With that in mind, a hurried Day 2 post didn't condemn his as a liar in my mind.

I'll come up with the voting records for today in the next couple of minutes. Then I'll make a list of people who have voted for two known Jedi in the morning. Because that is what I do .... make lists and not act on them.

That definitely sounds like a special role to me. Bodyguard seems like a good guess if we are playing a conventional roles game. Given the three schools mentioned on Wikipedia, there could be a strongest in each of the three areas:

Guardians: Bodyguard
Consulars: Seer
Sentinels: Duke

Pure conjecture here, but the lightsaber colors with these groups are blue (guardians), green (consulars), and yellow (sentinels). No pink blades to be found among Jedi, although Windu's purple one comes close if I want to reach a little here.

I am on the list of voting for two jedi. Should be interesting to see who else is on the list cause well known jedi are in large supply at the moment. Look forward to your continued in action on your analysis hoop and appreciate the nondenial. Make me vote with an easier conscience.

I believe its INACTION...not two works buddy ;)

Back to WW

Great the new mod cares about spelling. I'm sckroughed.

I really don't know how to win an argument like this, Barkeep. If you are going to vote for me then I guess that I hope that you don't get enough support to carry it off and run the string to 26 villagers tomorrow (assuming that the wolves get only one tonight).

"well known jedi are in large supply at the moment" - huh? There will be 18 unknowns tomorrow and 5 known jedi. I'll be pretty surprised if there are more than a handful of people who have voted for two dead Jedi.

I'm willing to entertain any ideas that you may have for our course tomorrow that don't involve lynching me.

In a post about spelling mistakes, i can't spell words*....wow

You also forgot the apostrophe in "it's."

That grammar, not spelling...TOTALLY UNRELATED!


Wait, do you see that...its some weird shape kwhit...looks kinda like a box ;)

JOKING FOR ANYONE SERIOUS OUT THERE

Spelling is a subset of grammar so if you're going to complain about one get the other one right biotch :)

Alright, i shall do as requested. By the way, add a period at the end of your sentence. :)

I assume he will when you capitalize your sentence properly.

:)

If I had to guess, saldana just got tanglewood mixed up with Lathum, and was jibing at him.

Since Lathum didn't duke anybody, and there was the reference to strength, I have to think that if he had any of those roles, it has to have been the bodyguard.

I have it on good authority that Jeebs is going to win the game. Congrats!

Just because every WW player but him is getting boxed doesnt mean hes going to win...more like a forfeit ;)

Been thinking about this and it only works if he's a wolf. If he's a villager he's got to vote people off one at a time and yawl can't suspend people that long. No if he can kill TWO people a day... well that's a whole different ball game.

Do you mean two per night action, or two as in night action plus daytime vote?

Box=dead to me...im sure saldana can add a missed vote rule...that should fix things

DO NOT READ INTO MY COMMENTS!! ITS A JOKE!!! I DONT NOT KNOW HIS OR ANYONES ROLE!!...i really shouldnt have made the joke, sorry

Good work guys. This is the first time I have been actually annoyed about being lynched ( I'm over it now ). I would hope most of you know I play a more solid game and not have condemmed me because of saying one stupid thing without giving me a chance to defend myself. oh well, see you next time, unless barkeep is running the game in which case I'm just not that smart... :)

Sorry Lathum :(. I guess early in a game where no one has come forth with outside information those little slip ups can almost be a death sentence. Obviously it was the wrong choice this time. :(

As for the list Hoops is going to post tomorrow I'm going to be one of the guys that shows up voting for 2 known villagers, but I stuck to my guns and provided evidence for my voting, so I hope it isn't held against me too much. With that said I already have a guy in mind that hasn't been playing his "normal" game that will be my vote for tomorrow. And no, it isn't you Hoops, I still believe you are on the side of the jedi at this point.

I'm also sorry Lathum. I pretty much led the charge against you because of your slip-up and I really thought I had you pegged. I'm sorry to have voted you off but day two votes usually aren't much better than Day 1 votes so little mistakes here and there could be enough to get you lynched.

This whole barkeep v. hoops could be interesting...

I've been wanting to hold off on analysis until the results are posted this morning from the night action, but here is one thing that I found interesting yesterday:

All three of the swing votes on Qwik from Day 1 (Gram, Sack, and Ardent) had their votes on Lathum yesterday.

Ok I was am bored at work so I did some research. In the HP game, 6 people voted for villagers on the first 2 days. 3 were wolves, 3 were not. Now this was a game where we found wolves on the first two days. I expect when I go back in time to find a game where there were 2 villagers killed on the first two days that results will be different, but I don't know. Maybe looking at who has voted for villagers in the first two days is a better technique then I suspected.

Going to look at hoops and ardents games next to see if this ratio looks different in those games.

Well maybe if you had actually come back in time to defend yourself you wouldn't have gotten lynched... :mad:

Son of a bitch, I'm not looking very good right now with my votes for Eaglesfan27 and Lathum. All I can say is that I'm merely confused, not evil.

Which means that all three of those guys have voted for two unique (unlike Dubb, who voted for Lathum both days) Jedi on Day 1 and Day 2.

I don't think all three of these guys are Sith. The Sith will not vote in a block like this, even if it is to save another Sith on Day 1. But with Qwik still around I don't have any idea what to make of the Day 1 movement. This is not intended as an "I told you so" at all, just being frustrated by the lack of good information.

:eek: i was working, my restaurant is actually busy :eek:

Hoops what's the complete list then of those who have voted for 2 known villagers at this point?

I was planning to do this after getting the Night kill, but here is what I have right now:

Superman/Lathum - KWhit, Grammaticus, SackAttack, Ardent Enthusiast
Eagles/Lathum - JeeberD
Lathum/Lathum - Dubb


Conversely, here is a list of people who have voted unknown/unknown so far (no confirmed Jedi votes)

Qwikshot - D1: Qwikshot, D2: no vote
Cartman - D1: Qwikshot, D2: Qwikshot
King - D1: Stkelly, D2: Qwikshot
Mckerney - D1: Dubb, D2: Qwikshot

In case anyone else wants to slice and dice the final votes, here is the data I'm working with.


Day 1
Alan T - Lathum (142)
Qwik - Qwik (231), Barkeep (159), Eagles (170), Penny (172), Cartman (179)
Super - SnDvls (167), Kwhit (206), Taz (222), Gram (244), Sack (248), Ardent (250)
Eagles - Hoops (174), Jeeber (208)
Schmidty - Desnudo (180), Ardent (209)
Lathum - Dubb (195), Alan T (225)
StKelly - King (223)
Dubb - Mckerney (229)
Barkeep - Stkelly (240)

Day 2
Qwik - Hoops (318), Cartman (327), mckerney (358), SnDvls (366), Schmidty (367), kingfc (391)
Lathum - Barkeep (326), Penny (342), Desnudo (359), Sack (361), Dubb (368), Jeeber (370), Grammaticus (375), KWhit (397), Tanglewood (401), Taz (424), Stkelly (429), Ardent (430)
Tanglewood - Lathum (334)

Sweet; I forgot that we don't know that Qwik is innocent for sure so here I was feeling that I voted against two known innocnets when I've only voted against one :)

That was sure a tease. I saw you had posted and assumed the results would be up :p

Post #457 by Barkeep

{pst #487 by Barkeep


Barkeep, I was really wondering where you were coming from with that last night. Makes sense now.

Wow. In ardents game of the 6 people who voted for villagers on the first two days 4 were baddies. Blade was not considered a villager for that game.

I'm going to skip hoops game and got to whoever was before saldana assuming I live through. This is turning out to be quiet interesting, I think.

Ok so my idea of there being a blessed seems to have proven true.

Nice, so do we think this was a blessed role, or possibly the bodyguard using his ablity?

dola, barkeep beat me to it...

We needed this, maybe out luck is changing...

It could be a bodyguard, but it seems to me that perhaps the description would be written differently. Rereading it though there's nothing to say it couldn't be the bg.

Well for Coffee's game I considered the villagers good guys, the demons bad guys, and the elemntals nothing.

So in the first two days only 2 people voted for villagers each time and 1 of them was a demon. So for the 3 games I've looked at 8 of 14 players who voted for villagers on each of the first two days turn out to be wolves. I'm going to keep going as I am finding this QUITE interesting.

Interesting result. My first thought is that the Sith attacked the blessed last night, but then, we don't know *who* it was they attacked.

Given that, I think that almost has to be the bodyguard. Keeping his identity a mystery, as well as his role, might make the Sith think twice about going after him, since they don't know what his role actually is.

Definitely a big momentum swing for us, whichever the case.