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I know it's unlikely that NV will actually be the state that wins it for Clinton, but the Harry Reid machine has been pretty damn impressive ever since 2008.
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Right wing media making far too much of a big deal over Jay Z dropping a few F bombs and N Words.
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Looks like Trump's gains have definitely stalled at least the last day or two, which really should do it barring something quite unusual. Interestingly that isn't the case in the Senate where it's a virtual coin-flip right now; most likely scenario is a 50-50 split with Kaine breaking the tie as VP.
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Don't underestimate the simple fatigue factor too. |
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I would put this at the top of the list. |
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This. If people actually sat back and thought it through, they'd realize how ridiculous these claims are, which is backed up by the fact that there's been no cases of widespread voter fraud. Quote:
Exactly. Who remembers 2004? Of course that was more the exit polls showing a Kerry lead (as opposed to early voting), but still. It's not over until the Supreme Court picks a winner. :D Quote:
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All of this. Back in 2008 there were a number of us happy to go back-and-forth for pages on various topics. Some of those folks aren't here anymore. A lot of us are busier than we were then. And a lot of the arguments are simply played out. And this hasn't been an election about ideas, anyway (not that I thought 2008 was, at the time, but....) |
Secret service removes Trump from a rally in Reno. Suspect tackled to the ground by SWAT and secret service. Unconfirmed reports that he had a gun.
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Another Hillary sponsored attack. At least I assume that is how the media will spin it... they would be quick to assume that if the same thing happened with a Hillary event that it was a pro-Trump sanctioned attack so they MUST use the same logic when it is reversed...right...
(disclaimer: I hate them both and wouldn't waste a second being upset if both of them were eliminated as they are both worthless) |
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Markets continue to drop Trump...down to 24-27c after another day of decline. Same speculation about reasons behind it. |
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If you find it so objectionable, don't do it. |
Will be interesting to see what exactly transpired. No permit is required in Nevada to open carry.
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Right, left, outer space, whatever ... some props for the Secret Service details of both major candidates this year. It can NOT have been an easy gig.
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Sidebar here, but kinda related so I'll throw it out:
Twice in the past hour people have mentioned to me that Monday is a day with particularly high security concerns (i.e terrorist type stuff). I hadn't heard a word of that previously, though I've been in a vaccuum more than usual for several days due to a sudden bout of work. Is this info "a thing", and I'm just horribly out of the loop, or are ya'll wondering wth I'm talking about? |
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US Intelligence warned of a possible Al-Queda attack Monday November 7th. Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday - CBS News |
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Fair enough. I'll consider that definitive enough to declare myself vacuum brained & unaware. |
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http://https://mobile.twitter.com/ma...rc=twsrc%5Etfw Yeah, just a misunderstanding, surprised there haven't been more to this point. |
Even if he did have a gun he would just be exercising his 2nd amendment rights. No need to panic.
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Raising one in the general direction of a presidential candidate is likely a bad idea. Reckless conduct if nothing else. |
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Oh great, I'm travelling so I guess I'll leave 30-40 min earlier. |
Latest Senate projection(from 538): 50.2% Dem control, 49.8% GOP. That's ... pretty close.
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Thought I'd post this as well since it's gotten some discussion around here, for those interested in the projects. This is Nate Silver on why the uncertainty is so high in his model this time around:
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Thought this was a good read. Basically Silver points out that Hillary likely has better odds than his formula says. Tough to gauge results with early voters being so high.
https://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/fiv...u-nate-silver/ |
Trump had asked if he was a plant paid by Clinton and told the crowd to, "take him out." |
NYPD Weinergate blah blah blah stupid
I don't post this because I buy anything this article says (from Breitbart...of course), but I simply had to post it for the ridiculous UIC herein. First of all, Weinergate? Is that really a thing they're calling this now? And, oh yea, sex island. |
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It's easy to believe he was a paid plant, but if so I wouldn't want to put money on whose plant he was. |
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He's been a registered Republican since 2011. That's a pretty long con to pull. Regardless, this is a dumb story. Looks like someone thought he had a weapon and yelled "Gun" (the same people who want open carry ironically). This caused the secret service and others to panic. He was rushed out and sent on his way. |
Trump's campaign cancelled a rally to be held in Green Bay today, which I thought was a bit odd given their need to turn the state to him, and then I heard the reason why...the Packers are playing at the same time as the rally. Which if they had a better ground game, they probably would not schedule one at all, or at a better day/time for them.
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The final DM Register poll has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 46-39 so that looks like the best bet for a Trump flip. Dems have a 42K lead in early voting with about 40% of the vote in but that is down from the 63K lead they had in 2012.
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Instead he's going to Minnesota, where he has even less chance than he does in Wisconsin, and he'll be there during the Vikings game. |
Interesting mailer the other day from the Michigan Republican Party. The only affirmative thing it says is 'Be a Voter'. Nothing positive about Trump; in fact he is nowhere mentioned or pictured, nor is Pence. You literally couldn't tell from it who the 2016 Presidential Candidate of their party is. It has only two basic messages: go vote GOP and anti-Clinton stuff. Darndest thing I've ever seen, but perhaps a reflection of the political environment we are in.
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They're not the only ones leaving Trump off campaign materials.
Minnesota's Trump snub: 3rd District Republicans don't include presidential nominee on sample ballots | MinnPost |
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shocking! :) They seem to think they have a chance in Minn according to their own polls, only have Clinton ahead by 3, which are probably as faulty as their ground game. |
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Makes me wonder which Republican will get the most write-in votes. I've seen McCain and now Rubio mentioned. Probably Kasich gets some too. |
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Trump is bragging about winning a high school poll in Minnesota, so I guess that explains why he came here.
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Anti-Semitism from a campaign run by Steve Bannon, a man who didn't want his kids to go to a school because he thought too many Jews attended? I can't believe it. |
How crazy has PC culture become when you can't even suggest that Jews are controlling the media and global finance?
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You can't even complain about the (((global elites))) without SJWs getting outraged these days. |
Take THIS, PC Culture. New ad released today will SHUT DOWN THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN.
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The FBI is saying the new Clinton email scandal is a nothingburger. Will anyone care?
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Nope. You either believed it was a nothingburger to begin with, or you believe that Comey either caved to political pressure (like Newt is already saying) or was bought off.
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Pretty much this. The only people I'm inclined to mock a bit are those who idiotically believed that anything was going to land on HRC from this round. The (former?) Mrs. Weiner? Maybe. But Hils? That was a less than zero chance. It didn't even make much sense to expect it would. |
Clinton up to -640 (from -400 this morning) at my Sportsbook.
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She is obviously above the law, that is no surprise to anyone. Hopefully karma will show up soon.
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What I don't get with this idea is where this source of untouchable power came about. Yes, the Clintons are good at networking, good at playing the political game, and from what her fans say, good at listening (and remembering). But the insidiousness? It's not like these two came from anything, especially Bill. He's a hick from Arkansas! It's not like they still have a huge power base or political machine set up there, unlike politicians who have been entrenched in a location forever (Reid? The Daley family?) I don't think they set anything up in NY. Washington sure, but it's not as if there aren't red power bases there. And they have TONS of enemies. Even within the party it wasn't enough to hold off an unknown one-term Senator. I don't get where this ability to bribe everybody comes from.
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it would have but your karma is currently being run over by your dogma. :P |
BTW, this is my old field of work (somewhat) so I can explain how it perhaps was done so quickly.
People are right that it would be impossible to review tens of thousands of emails one at a time to determine their National Security level and possible information within. They wouldn't need to for a vast majority of them. Using either a "hash" of the message or an email-id of the messages discovered on the device used by Huma Abedin (and in the possession of Anthony Dickhead, I mean, Weiner). they can compare it to emails already reviewed as part of the email server investigation. If the hash/ID already matches, they know they don't have to review it. That would DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of emails that they needed to check to go through this investigation. The company I worked for (EMC, now part of Dell) sold huge data storage boxes for this kind of thing, under that kind of principle, where if you have a amount of the same file saved across different locations (say your sales database), you just need one copy, with pointers to it from the other places, so all you have to do is track what's CHANGED, not what's the same. Then, during off hours, you merge the changes into the main file, and you're ready for the next day (that way, if you have a disk failure or what have you, you only have to rollback a small amount of changes, which are then done from recent backup) edit: If you want to read more about point in time copies, and the like, here. Fair warning, it MAY melt your brain ;) https://www.emc.com/collateral/softw...nwldgbk-wp.pdf |
It's crazy that I think just about any other Republican candidate could have beat Clinton in this election. The GOP picked the one guy who couldn't.
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I don't think Cruz would've beat her. It would've been a very different campaign for sure. Kasich and Rubio would've destroyed her assuming the Trump voters didn't revolt. |
Yeah I forgot about Cruz. He's so fucking unlikable but I think he'd be in a closer race.
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I don't think Christie would have either. Cruz certainly not (though he likely would have won the evangelical vote).Not Carson either. The others, even Jeb Bush would have run a "traditional" campaign and not have a new scandal every minute or say the racist/sexist/etc comments Trump used, and would have had a better chance against Clinton. |
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Given how big story the bridge closure would be right now I don't think Christie could have won. |
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It was more of a response to the 'Trump asked if was a paid plant...' line than a theory. But yes, agreed, in this instance tough to think it was anything other than your summary. |
I've had half a dozen iterations of the meme "It took 8 months to review 35k emails and 8 days to review 650k. Something does not jive." splash across my Facebook this morning.
Part of me wants to explain to how data modeling works. Part of me wants to explain that I routinely use databases to process and analyze 100k rows in 20 minutes. Part of me wants to explain that the software that allows me to do that efficiently took a month to develop and work the bugs out, but it's been 100% rock solid for ten years since. And then I remember who the audience is and just decide it isn't worth it. Not because it's political, but because it's like explaining magic or science or polling math to the illiterate. |
It's hard to imagine what the campaign would look like with a different GOP candidate because the Russian/Wikileaks hacks wouldn't have happened.
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I figure Mitt Romney is lucky he hasn't been charged with animal abuse, because if I was him, I'd have been kicking my neighbor's dog and muttering something like "if I'd just waited four years..." every day for the last 18 months. |
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Magnets. |
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She would have annihilated him. That'd have been like a sending a puppy up against a mountain lion (pick a metaphor mismatch if you don't like that one). |
Speaking of Romney, rumors are afloat that the secondary goal of Team Trump is to get more EVs than Romney and then spin it that Trumpism > Establishment.
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Do they really need that spin? He beat the hell out of everyone the establishment threw at him and brought to heel almost everyone from the establishment that said they'd never vote for him. Trumpism is already greater than the establishment. |
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Ok...this is just *perfect*
Donald Trump campaign on Election Day turnout: "It's like predicting your wife's mood" | Mic |
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This was me yesterday as well. No individual is reading these line by line as if it was the year 1820. |
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The national polls indicate a pretty solid and safe lead for Clinton. If Trump pulls this out, I think it's likely he does so without winning the popular vote.
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538 has her chances going up as well.
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I find it interesting that everybody's in Michigan today. I really can't imagine it being that close, unless Wayne County turnout is historically bad.
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Lots of Jill Stein signs in my neighborhood--all of which have carefully been altered to let people know to write her in (she didn't make the ballot in NC). Things like this are why 3rd parties have such trouble. Someone or some group of someones took the time and effort to print out and put up those signs--including the addendum about writing her in. That is such a waste of effort. Why not have spent it earlier, getting her on the ballot. Or spend it elsewhere, where she is on the ballot. If you are trying to grow the Green Party into something that folks will take seriously, you've got to get out of the low single digits. And wasting enthusiasm on write-in campaigns is not the way to do it.
Also, speaking of signs, we went to an apple orchid this weekend. As we went from the liberal Triangle into rural North Carolina, we went from a land of very few signs to a land of a few more Trump signs. To a significant amount of homemade "Hillary For Prison" signs by the time we got there. It was exactly what I would have expected, which was a bit shocking in itself. |
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I saw a write-up on that. In 2008, McCain pulled out of Michigan (hit super hard by recession). In 2012, the 47% comment really hurt Romney there. So there's a theory that Michigan is closer to 50/50 than people think and that the last two elections masked that. The campaigns' internal polling must show something similar. |
Also, #1 piece of information I'm going to be looking for in the presidential race on election day: data on the undecideds, which was a significant number, several percent even in the most recent CBS poll. If they break significantly for Trump and urban turnout consistently as bad as it's been reported to be in some places, that's really his only reasonable chance IMO.
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Well, Trump has likely concluded he can't win Nevada based on the early vote, which means he needs to take one of those midwest states. Hillary's is probably just a defensive move. She's in the lead so why not go there to just blunt whatever gains his visit might make and energize the Wayne County base. She got burned in MI during the primary and doesn't want it to happen again. |
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The day before the election here in Myrtle Beach area, and still have not seen a single Hillary sign or downballot candidate. |
Re: Michigan, wasn't there discussion that it's supposed to rain in Detroit tomorrow? So possible Clinton is there to urge voters to go out to the polls even if its storming.
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I've seen quite a few Trump ads on TV over the past few days. Really odd decision as far spending goes considering he has a slightly better than a 0% chance of winning the state.
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That would make sense, except that unless their plans have changed, both campaigns are spending the majority of their day in Grand Rapids ... an hour from where I live and I lived there for years. It just feels weird. To albion's point, we haven't voted for the Republican since '88(Bush Sr.). |
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why would Hawaiians move to Canada? That makes no sense |
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Is there any reason not to think this isn't a completely transparent way to hedge their bets? Even the most optimistic Clinton supporter can't think the polls are that close in OH |
One thing about Ohio early voting for Cincinnati. It was in ONE place downtown. No where to park except street parking and 6 dollar lots. Line was long on Friday. Not astronomically but around the corner and i didn't want to risk a ticket. Over the weekend the line stretched to an eleven minute walk. That was the ONLY place to early vote for hamilton county. So I opted to wait til tomorrow when i can stroll into the burb polling place and vote. At least my vote will cancel out Lathum's so that's a thing :)
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What are your favorite networks/websites to follow this stuff tomorrow night? Do you have a system?
Edit: I'm looking for something with entertainment value. I remember one site I stumbled upon Super Tuesday that had visualizations of the candidates floating higher in balloons if they were doing well, or something. It amused me. |
I'll check in every so often with MSNBC and 538. At times I've worked election night, but this year I'll be out of work by mid-afternoon and then voting, so I should be home some hours before any of the polls close.
Edit: I posted before your edit. Can't really answer your kind of question as I don't have TV. |
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Was it NBC that used to paint a map superimposed on an ice rink? I always got a kick out of that. |
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You also have multiple events going on - I'm up in NH where Obama's speaking later, but he's currently in Michigan & he'll be heading to Pennsylvania after stopping by here. (That seems like a lot of campaigning for a sitting President, but I suppose Bush in 2008 wasn't nearly as popular. I don't think Clinton was in 2000 either, though I don't recall 100% when people started liking him again.) Quote:
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I also remember liking the Washington Post's format for quick raw results, but then it was nice to pull a few bullet-points observations from other places. (with the TV in the background) 538 muddies the waters for me at that point, because they're still in super-prediction mode, and at that point, I just want to read about what we know and what that means, not what's going to happen in 2 hours.
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Oh I'll be using all mediums, I'll be on the sofa in front of the TV with a tablet, with the dog staring at me in judgment for not walking him yet. |
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This is the view from my chair in my home office.  I'll do something like this: TV: Probably back and forth between CNN and FOX LEFT MONITOR: FB/Full Twitter Feed CENTER MONITOR: Email/FOFC/DIY Election Map RIGHT MONITOR: Created a List to follow the "breaking news" Twitter feeds from CNN/FOX/AP/CBS/ABC/MSNBC. That usually gives me the state-by-state "we project Georgia for Trump" results faster than on TV. |
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Do you also have a tablet on your lap and 2 cell phones to text different groups of people? |
Heh. Nah, just one laptop and one TV...but two external monitors on that laptop.
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I'm certain because both government and private security firms are certain. Maybe Putin would have still done what he has done, but a candidate like Buch or Kasich would have never been so uncritically supportive of Putin. My guess is any other GOP candidate would have been strongly anti-Russia as was true of Romney and McCain. |
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Trump and his PACs have run quite a few ads on NYC local tv for the past month. |
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538 had Clinton as 99% likely to win the Michigan primary. Trump has to beat the polls somewhere, Michigan seems as good a place as any. |
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Clinton was very popular at this point. He had a 57% approval rating in late October 2000. Gore decided not to use him because he was trying to distance himself from Clinton (that's partly why he picked Lieberman as well). Clinton could have (and should have) been used as much as Obama is being used now. McCain was correct not to use Bush at all. Bush did do heavy campaigning in the 2002 midterms when he was extremely popular. |
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There's a lot who move to the Pacific Northwest, Canada, and Alaska. |
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Naw man, he packed up and moved to Oregon around the same time he dropped away from FOFC. I didn't know you were in Cincy. So I guess your vote will matter after all! In Kentucky, my vote isn't work dick, but I still voted. |
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Hey, the way you win Washington is one elector at a time, right? Skip the voters entirely. Tremendous! |
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