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-   -   The Trump Presidency – 2016 (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=92014)

Atocep 06-03-2020 06:33 PM

You can always assume that if Trump is accusing someone else of doing it then he's tried to do it himself.

Donald Trump appears to have committed felony voter fraud by registering under the wrong address in Florida.

and I know this initially looks like something that's incredibly nit-picky and no big deal but Florida has actually cracked down hard on others for doing the exact same thing:

Quote:

Under Florida law, providing false information on a voter registration form is a third-degree felony, punishable by five years in prison and a $5,000 fine. As the Washington Post notes, the state has previously targeted individuals for registering under the wrong address. In 2018, Deltona City Manager Jane Shang faced charges for listing City Hall as her residence to avoid disclosure of her home address. She ultimately avoided prison through a deferred prosecution agreement that included a hefty fine and community service. In 1993, a restaurateur was charged with voter fraud and jailed for registering under the wrong address.

thesloppy 06-03-2020 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3284366)
I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.


Yeah, while I don't see any situation that causes much if any of Trump's base turning away from him to vote for somebody else I do think it's possible that vocal criticism from conservative corners could cause significant numbers of marginal Trump supporters get exhausted enough to simply not vote.

Brian Swartz 06-03-2020 06:58 PM

A major difference between this cycle and 2016 by the way that doesn't get enough play is the historically very high amount of late-breaking undecided vote last time around. I believe the undecided vote a month before the '16 election was nearly double what is now (less than 8%). The on-the-fence voters breaking for Trump can't save him when there aren't nearly as many of them.

JPhillips 06-03-2020 07:02 PM

And I'm pretty sure that generally undecideds break for the challenger rather than the incumbent.

JPhillips 06-03-2020 07:08 PM



This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.

thesloppy 06-03-2020 07:14 PM

Saw that the sportsbooks have actually flipped over to favoring Biden (or any Dem nominee) for the first time FWIW.

JPhillips 06-03-2020 07:47 PM



These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

JPhillips 06-03-2020 07:49 PM

And this from the Commandant of the Marine Corps.

Quote:

ARLINGTON, Va. --
Marines and Sailors, last summer, in my planning guidance, I stated there is no place in our Corps for racists – whether their intolerance and prejudice be direct or indirect, intentional or unintentional. As a continuation of that declaration, in April, I addressed the removal of the Confederate battle flag from our bases, and explained my views behind that decision. I wrote, “Anything that divides us, anything that threatens team cohesion, must be addressed head-on.”

Current events are a stark reminder that it is not enough for us to remove symbols that cause division – rather, we also must strive to eliminate division itself. The trust Marines place in one another on a daily basis demands this. Only as a unified force, free from discrimination, racial inequality, and prejudice can we fully demonstrate our core values, and serve as the elite warfighting organization America requires and expects us to be.

To this end, Sergeant Major Black and I encourage commanders and leaders at all levels to have a conversation with their Marines and Sailors, and ask that in doing so, all actively listen. By listening, we learn, by learning, we change. The path to a more just and equal Marine Corps begins with these conversations.

miami_fan 06-03-2020 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284378)


This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.


He has a base as well. That base would want to hear his official position on the military topic of the day.

Atocep 06-03-2020 07:56 PM

We also received emails from the Secretary of the Army and Army Chief of staff today that were along the same lines.

Atocep 06-03-2020 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284385)
These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.


Trump reportedly threw out the idea of putting tanks in the streets.

Lathum 06-03-2020 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284385)


These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.


Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?

Atocep 06-03-2020 08:27 PM

Tom Cotton is really trying to position himself as the torch bearer for Trump 2024.

JPhillips 06-03-2020 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3284391)
Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?


I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.

Ben E Lou 06-03-2020 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284397)
I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.

My neighbor’s comment about Mattis and strategy wasn’t mere spitballing about the guy. He was a senior officer in the Corps, serving under Mattis’s command. After posting that, I walked the dog and ran into him. We talked for 20-30 minutes on the street. At one point I made a comment about how Trump was going to go ballistic. My friend responded with “oh, I’m certain Mattis knew exactly what he was doing with regard to that as well. Trump can’t play 4D chess, but Mattis can. He has a plan.”

thesloppy 06-03-2020 09:03 PM

At some point that Bolton book will also get cleared and added to the chorus....may have shot themselves in the foot by postponing that.

tarcone 06-03-2020 09:23 PM

This has to be Trumps worst nightmare. 2 emergencies to test his leadership. And he is failing miserably. He thinks tweets and photo ops will pull him through. Weak leadership is a bad deal at this point.

Atocep 06-03-2020 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3284366)
It’s not so much his base as the conservatives on the margin. I was third-party all the way in 2016, but a significant number of my close long-time friends were Trump nose-holders who still can’t stand Trump, but may vote for him. Hearing a respected conservative general publish some of the thoughts that they already had will no doubt move the needle a bit more. I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.


Just judging by a quick trip through some of the Conservative spots on reddit this really seems to have had a more of an impact that I expected. Not necessarily a tsunami or anything, but it definitely has some conservatives reevaluating Trump.

None seem to be ready to vote for Biden, but they're wishing there was some republican option other than Trump.

Thomkal 06-03-2020 10:00 PM

Anderson Cooper: “Given his bone spurs, it must have been very painful to have been rushed down to his bunker.”

Atocep 06-03-2020 10:52 PM

Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.


PilotMan 06-03-2020 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3284410)
Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.



....and Mattis hated it.

RainMaker 06-03-2020 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3284332)
I am definitely not counting my chickens yet, but I am hopeful these polls are right. I am hoping for a Godzilla-breathes-fire-down-Trump's-throat type of victory.


Him turning full fascist seems to be the response to internal polls. He has to know he is in deep trouble and we are going to see some scary stuff as he continues to head toward a large defeat.

RainMaker 06-03-2020 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3284361)
I believe things like this do chip away at his base. I'd be surprised if it noticeably moved the needle, but every little bit helps and this is just one more thing that makes it more difficult to defend his actions. A tipping point for Trump would potentially be if George W were to endorse Biden. At the very least it'd be interesting to see how the current GOP establishment would try to reconcile it.


I don't think his base is going anywhere. Theh have lifted him up to cult status. They never cared about the military either.

What this may do is motivate independents and people in the suburbs. His base hasn't moved and he is pushing hard right to appease their authoritarian leanings.

Flasch186 06-04-2020 07:16 AM

Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

sterlingice 06-04-2020 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 3284433)
Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.


And, in the back of my mind (in a small part but it's still there and also at odds with my thought of how often Trump can/will play a chess vs checkers), I've wondered if this is a dress rehearsal for November

SI

tarcone 06-04-2020 07:42 AM

November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.

kingfc22 06-04-2020 08:03 AM

Bunker boy is now building his wall

Edward64 06-04-2020 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 3284433)
Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.


I agree with this and the economy is rebounding so that's always a key factor. And there could always be a Hillary-like Oct surprise.

BYU 14 06-04-2020 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3284435)
November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.


It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.

cartman 06-04-2020 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3284438)
and the economy is rebounding so that's always a key factor.


The stock markets are not the economy. GDP is still shrinking and unemployment numbers are still on the meteoric rise.

Edward64 06-04-2020 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3284450)
The stock markets are not the economy. GDP is still shrinking and unemployment numbers are still on the meteoric rise.


You are right.

I do think there is a good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov but maybe not enough (and maybe a second shock with a second wave).

Kodos 06-04-2020 11:12 AM

The stock market is being propped up by the Fed.

Swaggs 06-04-2020 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3284454)
You are right.

I do think there is a good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov but maybe not enough (and maybe a second shock with a second wave).


Sincere question: Based on what?

My thoughts are that we are only doing 'this well' because we just put $3.2-trillion into the economy AND a lot of folks/businesses have not paid their first sets of quarterly taxes in 2020 (more income available to spend now, less later/less collected by governments).

We have close to 20% unemployment, very low consumer confidence, lots of questions about imports/exports (long term supply chain), and the continued unease about the pandemic. I don't see a reason to believe the economy is going to noticeably rebound for quite some time. I feel reallly strongly that we are looking more at years than months before we get back to a decent level of unemployment and consumer confidence.

JPhillips 06-04-2020 11:33 AM

In a month, state and local governments will start making cuts. In two months the enhanced unemployment benefits go away. If things aren't substantially better very quickly, there will be a lot of pain heading into the fall.

albionmoonlight 06-04-2020 11:36 AM

One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.

JPhillips 06-04-2020 11:43 AM



Profiles in Courage, this is not.

JPhillips 06-04-2020 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3284466)
One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.


Yeah, and it doesn't help that most of the legislature isn't in D.C.

PilotMan 06-04-2020 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284468)


Profiles in Courage, this is not.


Murkowski can rightly fuck off. I think we've already had enough of her 'brave leadership' that we can handle.

Kodos 06-04-2020 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22 (Post 3284437)
Bunker boy is now building his wall


I think everyone should call him Bunker Boy. Bunker Boy and Moscow Mitch.

Edward64 06-04-2020 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs (Post 3284462)
Sincere question: Based on what?

My thoughts are that we are only doing 'this well' because we just put $3.2-trillion into the economy AND a lot of folks/businesses have not paid their first sets of quarterly taxes in 2020 (more income available to spend now, less later/less collected by governments).

We have close to 20% unemployment, very low consumer confidence, lots of questions about imports/exports (long term supply chain), and the continued unease about the pandemic. I don't see a reason to believe the economy is going to noticeably rebound for quite some time. I feel reallly strongly that we are looking more at years than months before we get back to a decent level of unemployment and consumer confidence.


Regarding my comment on "good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov", the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy.

It's not the only one, may not be the most important one, but it is one. However, arguably it is in an "irrational exuberance" state right now.

With that said, I don't think you can toss away stock market progress as a "valid" leading indicator during these times. I would assume (and hope) the stock market analysts and Fund managers are doing their due diligence in talking with CEOs, talking with companies' supply chain folks, reading the Fed etc. in addition to watching unemployment, consumer confidence, risk of China, risk of second wave etc.

Edward64 06-04-2020 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3284466)
One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.


It's election year. I got to believe the chance is high there will be one more relief package.

Edward64 06-04-2020 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3284478)
I think everyone should call him Bunker Boy. Bunker Boy and Moscow Mitch.


Much better than President Tweety but IMO not quite right yet.

larrymcg421 06-04-2020 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3284448)
It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.


If the election were suspended, then Pelosi is no longer Speaker because her term ends on January 3rd. However, the President Pro Tempore is Chuck Grassley and he'll only be 2 years into a 6 year term, so he'd be President on January 21.

Brian Swartz 06-04-2020 01:05 PM

Perhaps draw some inspiration from this?

Vote Him Away (The Liar Tweets Tonight) - YouTube

Flasch186 06-04-2020 02:35 PM

I said it before, the Murkowski, Susan Collins ilk are so full of shit its boggling. They feign concern but do nothing rinse and repeat.

Side bar... I've read that the GOP, through calculations will determine whether or not they feel like they'll lose bigly in November within the next few months. If they come to that conclusion they will tack to the fiscal tightening side of their faux-platform and squeeze hard on the economy so that the next Democratic president resides over a terrible recession/depression so that they can then blame them for the economy and hope that it will be a one term president.

Always a con.

Kodos 06-04-2020 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3284484)
Much better than President Tweety but IMO not quite right yet.


No, Bunker Boy is perfect because it highlights Trump's cowardly nature and he will be driven insane because he doesn't want people to know that he is in fact a total coward.

albionmoonlight 06-04-2020 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 3284534)
I said it before, the Murkowski, Susan Collins ilk are so full of shit its boggling. They feign concern but do nothing rinse and repeat.

Side bar... I've read that the GOP, through calculations will determine whether or not they feel like they'll lose bigly in November within the next few months. If they come to that conclusion they will tack to the fiscal tightening side of their faux-platform and squeeze hard on the economy so that the next Democratic president resides over a terrible recession/depression so that they can then blame them for the economy and hope that it will be a one term president.

Always a con.


That seems like a very obvious play.

And the President is so stupid that he won't even realize what they are doing to him.

RainMaker 06-04-2020 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3284473)
Murkowski can rightly fuck off. I think we've already had enough of her 'brave leadership' that we can handle.


Kind of felt the same about what Mattis said. I mean it's good he said it but he also gave the President credibility when he was in his role. Same long jackoff motion reading these people speak up now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3284448)
It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.


Pretty sure if an election was cancelled they aren't going to give a shit about the line of succession.

albionmoonlight 06-04-2020 03:15 PM

I realize that by November, we'll be 6 crises past where we are now so none of this will matter.

But for a President so image obsessed, it is kind of crazy that one of the things that's really hurting him is that fact that he had no idea how people hold books, so that Bible video looks so stupid.

Like, if he had just spent any time in his life reading books, he would have learned how to hold them just through repetition.

stevew 06-04-2020 03:16 PM

I assume they’ll do the absolute minimum relief package(if any) that keeps the Senate in GOP control. And then starve the economy so that they can attempt to destroy the Biden presidency and regain the house.


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