Well if you are die and end up being good, I will take this opportunity to be the first to thank you for helping us get our first wolf tommorrow :)

I can understand that position Thom, I have been wondering why no one has viewed me either even with me telling folks that better searches are done elsewhere.

It differs from game to game. Some games they can, other games they don't get any information from it and other games they kill the attacker...

No way to know this game without someone coming out to say how it works.

Thanks, Alan.

We might need to also start thinking about the numbers and whether or not this is the beginning of the dark side end-game plan. If we've got 3 people on each dark team, and 3 Rangers, they will cancel each other out in terms of the overrun. There would be 5 villagers left. After I am killed, there will be 4 villagers. If the bad guys kill a Ranger tonight, that makes 4 bad guys to even out the 2 remaining Rangers, and 2 bad guys to equal the 4 villagers. That could be game. If the bad guys take out a Ranger and a villager, that should definitely be game. By killing me tonight, you will learn who is bad, but the game may already be over.

I'm going to cast a provisional vote for BrianD, not least because I was already a little worried about him, witness my vote "yesterday".

VOTE BrianD

I am willing to take that chance.

Fair enough. I'm sure whichever dark team gets the win will thank you for this move.

I've never been MVP before :)

I find it strange that you seem to be defending ntn quite a bit. You knew he was going to be the main lynch target today, but you scan Brian instead? Perhaps I'm reading too much into this, but it strikes me as odd.

I think she already knows what ntn is.

I think so too.

Has LSG posted the people she's scanned? I've looked for it, but I can't find it.

She scanned:

night 1: blade (dead)
night 2: me (good)
night 3: lathum (dead)
night 4: izulde (good)
night 5: briand (bad)

Thomkal scanned:

night 1: Jonathan Ezarik (good)
night 2: Mr.Wednesday (good)
night 3: Schmidty (good)
night 4: Grammaticus (good)
night 5: Dodgerchick (dead)

I'm still catching up, but do we know exactly what ability Izulde has?

I HAVE!!! MULTIPLE TIMES!!! :D :D :D

Though granted, my failures are just as spectacular

Not much discussion taking place right now, unfortunately. It looks like the momentum is heading towards Brian, so I'm going to go that way, since it will give us either him or LSG. I don't see why LSG would throw things, unless she really wants the heat of ntndeacon, but I haven't seen those two tied in this game yet.

I'm going to go ahead and vote because I'm not sure I'll be back in time tomorrow.

Vote Brian D.

From what I understand (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong), but Izulde can see what profession someone plays. Like you being the innkeeper. I don't think he gets info on what side, though.

The only thing I can think is this must be an end-game play. She/They must think that they will be able to kill a Ranger tonight and end the game. I don't know what else the play can be, but I've got a feeling that this game may be wrapped up by morning.

Why didn't you scan Thomkal? If this is answered somewhere, I missed it and apologize.

Maybe she did, but she can't let me live now that I've witnessed her crime.

Hmmm. So we haven't learned anything from LSG's scans. Especially since we found out about you and Izulde being good before she revealed and Blade and Lathum were already dead.

Here's how I see it: Brian is evil, but he's not in LSG's faction. This way she gets rid of an opponent and looks like she's the good seer, thus throwing more doubt on Thomkal.

Possible, but that would mean she *thinks* I'm evil and will be taking out an opponent.

In reality, I think she is only naming me because I saw her attack last night...and she saw me see her. If I'd been around here before she was this morning, we would be using my knowledge to lynch her. Since she got here first, she is controlling the story.

Well, I guess we'll find out tonight.

Vote BrianD

Disappointing, I thought I had played a pretty good game up until now. Who would have thought viewing a botched night-kill would do me in. Oh well, only an hour before class so I won't be able to attempt much more convincing.

Vote LoneStarGirl

You have played a pretty good game I think regardless of your affiliations. And if things are as you suggest, you have solved our two seer problem. Makng it an even better played game.

BrianD.... good story about me hitting alant. Too bad its a lie. I am of the light. Swaggs, you can test your skills on that sentence. I didn't scan Thomkal because I am afraid Anxiety put two seers on the light side and i didn't want to waste a night on him. Plus, if i came back saying thomkal is bad, how many of y'all would believe me? I know some people would say of course she says thomkal is bad so we can kill him and they will win, blah blah blah. I have had a feeling about BrianD for awhile, so i wanted to check my theory. and I was right. And I am not vouching for ntn by any means, if briand would have turned out good last night, i would have voted for ntn.

interesting development. still need to catch up, but i need to take the dog for a walk before reading this last page and voting.

Are you serious? You think Thomkal is good? Since when?

Ugh. You have been saying for the past few days that I'm evil LSG, trying to discredit everything I say, and now you think I'm on the light side? What changed? I've thought all along there was two of us on the light side which is why I never voted for you or scanned you. But now though...

Well I guess there's one way to find out for sure.

unvote ntndeacon
vote BrianD

2 seeers on the side of light? that'd be interesting, but it would make more sense than having an evil-seer, since evil already knows who is good (even if they don't know who is on the other evil faction).

See, I don't buy that. There have been so many people pushing for a lynch of NTN and you decide to ignore all of that and view me? No, you just decided to get rid of me because I saw your little secret. If you had done a better job killing Alan such that I couldn't see your failure, would you still be pointing at me or would you have "viewed" someone else?

A total of 25 players to start the game. Conventional wisdom or discussion from all, generally places 3 bad guys in each faction and 3 rangers. I realize those numbers are not hard and fast but they are basically the consensus of discussion to this point. How many neutral aligned players? We have already seen one in SnDvl. For the sake of argument, lets say none left.

9 villagers have been lost – side of light
1 non affiliated person has been lost - side of darkness
1 non affiliated and non aligned person lost – no side

That leaves 14 people left.

3 Sauron baddies
3 Saluman baddies
3 rangers
5 vanilla villagers

It takes two baddies to overcome a ranger so right now you potentially have all six baddies causing a draw against the rangers or even odds that would cause a bad guy win. That leaves an overage of 5 villagers. It takes 2 villagers to overcome a baddie. So it would take 3 more baddies to offset those villagers.

If we lynch BrianD and he is a vanilla villager as he says and a ranger is night killed, we still have odds of

6 baddies
2 rangers
4 villagers

It takes 4 baddies to offset the rangers and the 4 villager take the 2 remaining baddies. So no end game.

Of course there could be more or less baddies and rangers. Also the rules say if you are not a regular townie, it is not certain how many it takes to overwhelm. Since we have not uncovered anyone that was on the side of light and more than a townie, that leads me to believe someone else exists that might have a 1:1 overwhelm ratio to the bad guys. And of course there could be another non aligned role.

Basically, I don’t think this is end game just yet. May be a small chance, but likely not. If we lynch a villager and lose a ranger, then maybe the next lynch and night kill could generate an endgame. But, we are sure to get a baddie in either BrianD or LSG. If they are both good, then one of them screwed things up by lying.

I'm off to class and won't be back until after the lynch. For everyone on the side of Light, do you really think we can survive with our numbers after a villager lynch and possibly two more good-guy deaths tonight? We need a dark death now, and I have handed you one.

Gramm, your analysis is good, but remember that both bad groups appear to be able to make night kills. Add one more villager (or one more Ranger) kill to you analysis above and you've got a finished game with the Dark winning.

Also, in your analysis above, I think that is game over. The Rangers are overrun by the 4 baddies and the villagers are overrun by the other 2 baddies. You don't need a majority in that situation, just an even ratio.

VOTE BRIAND

trusting LSG here. interesting that LSG is told what faction the force of darkness is on too. the fact that she has come out ahead of time and identified him as an agent of saruman is additional information that she didn't need to give that lends credibility to her story, presumably it will be checkable when he is revealed upon death (although i don't remember for sure based on the rules and i'm not about to leave this post to check).

Should this be true it also gives me pause about ntndeacon as well, unless that's a tactic for trying to hide him...which i suppose we should consider.

I'll follow LSG's reveal, too. Other than that I have nothing to add. I had an ungodly busy weekend and I'm still exhausted from it.

UNVOTE NTNDEACON

VOTE BRIAND

How in the world do you say LSG outing BrianD says anything at all about ntndeacon?

no...i mean about briand voting for ntndeacon 3 times

Ok, so you blindly follow LSG's dropping that little info as a way to distance ntn once BrianD is bad and completely ignore my post about the setting when BrianD did vote for ntn making the votes completely not matter other than vote placement.

Got it, just as long as I understand whats being sold here before people try to buy it. :)

Can you show me the three places where BrianD placed a meaningful vote for ntndeacon in a situation it could likely get him lynched?

nope. i must have missed that post of yours. i didn't realize all brian's votes for ntn were meaningless. and i just said it would raise questions, and i did say in my post "unless it was just a way of trying to hide ntndeacon down the road"

sides, i wasn't saying this clears ntndeacon. just saying it kinda...brought him back into relevence or whatever you want to call it. shined the light back in his direction

dola

assuming brian is evil and lsg is cleared more by virtue of that i think the light definately swings back in that direction. although all bets are off if lsg has been playing us all for fools (which i don't believe)

Well I'll make it easy for you. LSG lied about BrianD voting for ntn at least 3 times. He only voted for him 1 time, on a day when no one else was going to vote for him, and only had his vote on him for 40 min before he moved it off. He only mentioned ntn one other time on the day when it was ntn vs Izulde and pretty much everyone on the untrusted list voted for izulde and none of them voted for ntn.

This is his response on a day where a vote for ntn could have lynched him before the end switch to Thomkal and all of the chaos that ensued.


Then the next day, I came back out going for ntndeacon, when swaggs pushed everyone to spleen. At the point BrianD voted for ntndeacon here, it was very clear no one else would be voting for ntndeacon, as all of those voters were on Spleen. ntndeacon was not in danger of being lynched this day and in fact there might not have been any other votes on him here. Basically a throw away vote.


Then 40 minutes later he moves his vote off of ntndeacon, thus "proving" his point of how willing he is to lynch ntndeacon


And this is his response when I called him out on it.


For you and LSG to blindly say that BrianD being bad makes ntndeacon good, or even to suggest it is downright incorrect.

I still want to know how any of today's events shed any light or push the lynch away from ntndeacon in any sort of way.

Once again tommorrow, my sights will be to lynch ntndeacon unless I am convinced otherwise.

ok. thanks alan. you're much better at the whole "digging back into past posts" thing than i am. my patience for it wears thin pretty quickly.

aside (TOTALLY NOT GAME RELATED): have you checked out that "Encyclopedia of Arda" that i mentioned to you?

that's what i was saying. it shines the light back on him. i'm down with putting him up for a vote tomorrow, although i don't know why sublime or mr. weds aren't drawing anymore attention?