If the emails were discovered during the Weiner investigation, it seems very unlikely that there's anything dramatic there. I can't imagine Hillary sent Weiner an email asking him to tell Huma something secret.

Or is it just fantasy?

"Hey Weiner, stop giving my husband sexing tips!" ;)

What happens when the R senate refuses to confirm cabinet appointments? Do the old guys just stay in office until they die? Who is the designated survivor during the SOTU?

I was thinking zthe email from Clinton to Weiner went like this:
HRC: "We sent you that 15 year old and have you by the M-Fing balls! You are now my pawn. You will do as I say"

Or anything terribly embarrassing coming up... well until about an hour ago anyways:

Video Shows Donald Trump Sexually Humiliating Woman Before Large Audience | Huffington Post

If he's smart, he won't say anything about it. But, knowing Donald...

Saw the news this morning and rushed out to throw $400 down on Clinton at -300. I still want to punch myself in the face for not getting in at -180 before the first debate. She was at -630 yesterday. It's already back up to -360.

Hillary's campaign seems pretty confident that there's nothing to this, so much so that they've agreed with the Trump campaign that the FBI director should explain the evidence they have.

There could definitely be something embarrassing.

They took Huma Abedin's devices too, so communications between her and Clinton would be play also.

Come on. Everybody knows that Hillary kills everyone that gets in her way.

The fact that Weiner hasn't had a weightlifting accident in the gym or a ski accident or a parasailing catastrophe or a small jet engine malfunction probably indicates that Killary has toned down her murdering ways. ;)

"Killary." Niiiiiiiice.

HRC team need to play this up to distract from the Weiner email stuff.

The new email revelations won't play out until after the election and can only hurt her.

Tim Kaine as President? What do you say?

"Anthony Weiner is proof that the Clintons don't have people murdered."

Best case scenario?

A letter that Comey sent to FBI personnel was released. He can't be that naive, can he?

Also, the e-mails are not from her or even to her. Even Cornyn and Grassley are questioning the FBI announcing this info so close to the election.

I guess that's what all the alt-right nut jobs call her?

That's what people call her in my Facebook feed. Everyday.
Go Kentucky.

I doubt there's anything game changing here as well, but if Hillary is texting Huma, Huma's emails become fair game because Carlos Danger is texting her... and suddenly everything Hillary sent to her can/will be public.

Kinda of cool to see my wife head out the door to vote in her first presidential election since becoming a U.S. citizen. I swear she studied harder on the issues on this ballot that she did for some of graduate classes.

Nice, congrats to your wife.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2...orig-vstan.cnn

He's, "pretty versed," on the FairTax but continues to be unable to defend it when pressed with the slightest scrutiny or criticism against it.

What color is the ribbon to show support for the people who work at the polls?

Based on three visits to the early polling site today (the line was finally manageable enough the third time that I was able to vote after a 35 minutes wait), I want some way to show them some support. From people getting upset that poll workers were thanking people wearing military hats for their service to people being angry that they were not asked to verbally verify that the address on their license was correct, I am glad that voting for me is done and over with for 2016.

That reminds me of a couple question. I live in a county with a population of 650,000 and nearly everyone votes by mail. I assume they still have voting booths setup on election day but I can't recall the last time I or anyone I know actually going to a place to vote. I think it's been that way here since late 2000s. This seems to make the most sense (and the process has been problem-free since the beginning, if I recall) but why don't every county do this?

That's also why I get confused when people talk about "pulling a lever" to vote straight ticket. I thought that (the mechanics) went out in the 1960s? Even when I started voting in California in the late 1970s, we were using punch cards (nothing electronic or mechanical) and the same in Colorado since the 1980s before switching to fill-in-the-circle ballots. Are there still places where there are mechanical voting machines?

Trump boasts about his philanthropy. But his giving falls short of his words. - The Washington Post

Using the Trump Foundation to pay his son's 7 dollar Boy Scouts registration made me laugh.

Just tell those people to get fucked. Poll workers can't talk back but you're free to tell an asshole they're an asshole.

I can't think of many methods I'd trust less. We're going on three weeks & counting just trying to get an absentee ballot for my son via the mail. (edit to add): We'll be resorting to a pair of FedEx packages (to him & back to the board of elections) IF we ever get the damned thing in the first place.

Attempt #1 was here to him directly at school. Never showed up.
Attempt #2 was sent here, literally 5 miles away from the board of elections (law prohibits hand delivery of absentee), went out on Thursday afternoon. Still hasn't arrived.




Per ballotopedia, the mechanical machines were last used in 2010. The phrase is just still around most likely in the same way we say a team "has punched their ticket" or similar outdated terminology.

But I'll tell you something, I'd say those mechanical machines would score the highest (a plurality at least) trust score with voters in Georgia (where we used them in most of the state until somewhere around 200something). We still lament their absence & had far fewer concerns about them being rigged, if watched properly.

So with all the talk of the rigged election, we actually had 1 case of voter fraud and ID laws did not stop it!!

Voter fraud suspect arrested in Des Moines

From another story on her:


Gee, I wonder where that idiotic and dangerous idea could have come from.

I guess we can say Donald is the biggest cause of voter fraud this election.

Guy chants "Jew-S-A" in front of press pen pic.twitter.com/2yqgA6dD4k

— Nick Corasaniti (@NYTnickc) October 29, 2016

It can't happen here.

At least we get cool stickers here.

I'm sure you could sell that on e-bay for a pretty penny :)

Yeah, no idea.

Trump booster Alex Jones: I’m not anti-Semitic, but Jews run an evil conspiracy - Vox

So now that the polls are tightening does Trump still think they are rigged or will he use them as evidence the race is closer?

If I were the Republicans I'd be most worried about Nevada since Trump needs it for his narrow 270 path. Dems are up about 28K through one week of early voting, basically the same as 2012.

Early voting numbers in Nevada looking a lot like 2012’s | Las Vegas Review-Journal

Right, I get that. But through this whole campaign Trump and a decent portion of his followers have been quick to scapegoat minority group after minority group, and now it comes as a big shock that they've turned to Jews? C'mon.

If this FBI story just hangs around for nine days, with no resolution, and he can keep his mouth shut, for the first time I think he has a real chance to win.

Yeah, still a long shot though. People are already voting. Trump looks good in OH and IA, Hillary looks good in NV, CO. If the Dems build up a 40-50K advantage in NV going into election day that will be difficult to overcome given that it's such a small state and 70% of people voted early in 2012. Then Trump has to flip another state like PA, WI, or MI.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politi...ly-voter-data/

Chief ethics lawyer in GW Bush White House has filed official complaint to Office of Special Counsel 4 inquiry of Comey 4 violating law.

— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) October 30, 2016

On Clinton Emails, Did the F.B.I. Director Abuse His Power?

Not a recent phenomenon by any means. I thought someone had already mentioned the picture of Hillary with the six-pointed star in this thread. The anti-Semitic intimidation tactics directed towards journalists seem to have escalated lately, and I'm sure that's a coincidence that has nothing to do with Trump saying that Clinton meets with a "global financial elite" or that she has a lying press on her side. Those aren't obvious dog whistles or anything.

Not sure if this is the same guy or not (not the one they are showing staring at the press, but mentioned towards the bottom of the article:

Man staring down press removed from Trump rally - POLITICO

The alt-right is a cesspool of anti-semitism and a self proclaimed leader of the movement is running Trump's campaign. The guy's chant isn't the only problem, all the people around him do nothing.

To be fair, they did have security kick him out.

Is alr-right lingo for anyone who is on the conservative side of things for you?

Alternative Right | Southern Poverty Law Center

"We're the platform for the alt-right" - Steve Bannon

(talking about Breitbart.)

Got it.

I hope the irony is not lost that the so-called moderate Republicans (unofficial motto: "you just think everyone who disagrees with you is racist") are the group with the most egg on their face this election cycle after the guy who cut out the middleman of discussing policy and went straight to the dog whistling beat out 16 candidates (most of whom had presumably more conservative bonafides) to win the party's nomination.

Non-bold prediction: we are about to witness the ugliest week in the history of American politics.

Many (?) will run again in 2020, so yes the irony will be lost on them.

sadly I think you are probably right.

Donald J. Trump Verified account ‏@realDonaldTrump We are now leading in many polls, and many of these were taken before the criminal investigation announcement on Friday - great in states!


So wait a minute, I thought the polls were rigged? (and you are still losing in most polls)

I'll take the under.

We had a civil war after all.

I think the week after the election will be worse.

What the Early Vote in North Carolina Means: A Daily Tracker

An analysis of North Carolina voting based on info from early voting.


Early voting looks very favorable so far for Clinton in North Carolina and Nevada, two states essential for Trump's already narrow path to 270.

Well, moderate Republicans didn't support this guy, so yeah, I think they have a right to be upset if the left lumps them in with racists.

Ehhhh...probably a semantics argument over what I meant there. That's not part of what I was talking about.

Assuming HRC wins, absolutely. But this week holds the title for a week. :D

Well there is certainly an unbiased source.

I wouldn't trust that bunch of clowns to define the word dictionary.

Left-wing lunatics with too much time on their hands and not much indication of the damned fraction of the sense to do anything useful with it.

Google alt-right and you can find a Breitbart article where Milo says the same thing, but with waaaay more words.

So I stupidly allowed myself to be dragged into a Facebook political argument with...a Trump supporter.

(not what y'all expected huh...)

:banghead:

What's important to note about NV is that Dems are pounding Republicans in early voting in Washoe County, where Reno is. And if the Republicans are losing in Reno, there's no chance Trump wins NV, and the Senate seat probably goes Dem, too.

Basic thumbnail sketch of NV - It's Las Vegas, which is heavily (D) against the rest of the state, which is (R).

Wait, not all Consevatives are the same?

Have a friend who is having a nice series of exchanges with Trump supporters. I shake my head and ignore it.

Regardless of politics and policies, and having a daughter, I just cannot vote for a serial misogynist. I can believe his stance on the wall, immigrants etc. is "flexible" but his past on women is pretty damning.

Not that they need it but the SPLC should get a lifetime pass from every freedom-loving American in this country.

"In 1987, SPLC won a case against the United Klans of America for the lynching of Michael Donald, a black teenager in Mobile, Alabama. The SPLC used an unprecedented legal strategy of holding an organization responsible for the crimes of individual members to help produce a $7 million judgment for the victim's mother. The verdict forced United Klans of America into bankruptcy. Its national headquarters was sold for approximately $52,000 to help satisfy the judgment. In 1987, five members of a Klan offshoot, the White Patriot Party, were indicted for stealing military weaponry and plotting to kill Dees."

How the fuck can anybody be AGAINST the Southern Poverty Law Center?

It's JIMG... are you really surprised?

If this late game FBI thing costs Clinton the election, it's gotta rank high among the all time greatest flops.

First rule I've learned about FB, don't get into FB debates over politics, with both Trump supporters/conservative and Hillary supporters/liberals. That's all FB has become it seems.

It would be absolutely shocking if it somehow could, so I suppose on the remote chance it happens, sure. ;)

My wife, as well, is going to vote in her first election since becoming a citizen.

That's fantastic for both your wives. Out of curiousity, what countries did they come from, what do they think of the political process/election season here, and if you don't mind saying, who are they voting for and why?

I expected the race to widen into a 10+ point lead, not tighten back to a 3-4 pt lead. I was wrong.

:withstupid:

Yeah, I was expecting that this would be the week that the "rats" (mainly nose-holders who were voting for him because Supreme Court/abortion) would see 6-12 point lead and start abandoning the sinking ship and turn it into a blowout. ("Well, if it's a sure thing he's gonna lose, at least I can tell my kids I didn't vote for that jerk!")

I still think the electoral college path looks really bad for Trump and his weak ground game is already hurting him with early votes, but I'm certainly less confident than I was a week ago.

Oh, I still think he's a long shot, but I think it might be close enough for the die-hards to decide it was rigged.

Sorry wrong place

The various shares of Trump/GOP/nonwoman/Pence have been creeping upward...now in the 31-33c range.

How has this not been posted yet? Clinton knew at least two of the questions posed to her at a debate thanks to the moderator from CNN.

Donna Brazile out at CNN amid leaks to Clinton campaign - Oct. 31, 2016

It's the week that folks like my aunt hold their nose and vote for Trump because things like these e-mails popping up show just how horrible Clinton is and that she must be stopped (and that maybe Trump isn't so bad after all?)

I think it was a couple of weeks ago. The article is vague but it was a Clinton-Sanders debate. It is probably the most damning thing in all of the wiki leaks.

And President Trump will just make his fraud and rape cases go away.

I am perfectly willing to go after the low-hanging fruit. :D

Democrat leaders rigged primary debates to influence nomination. Republican leaders be like "WHY DIDN'T WE THINK OF THAT?"

— Ben Lewis (@benelou) October 31, 2016

If Trump wins a lot of the reason will be the GOP elected officials playing a game similar to the suing foreign governments debacle. You can see in the reaction to Comey's letter that a lot of them don't want Trump to win, but they're hoping they can count on others to save the country while they play to their base.

FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing

Jesus will pardon him.

Less confident that Trump will not win ALL of the battleground states and a blue state?

I'm sympathetic to Comey. I think it was a damned if you do or don't.

Overall, I'm okay with Comey disclosing however I do feel that he should have been more definitive in saying "nothing has been found, don't draw any conclusions, it could well be nothing, it may not have anything on Hillary" etc. and "I am just giving you a FYI".

It has been an fascinating experience to say the least. We have been married for almost twenty years so she has viewed the process from the outside. She did predict both candidates correctly around the first Republican debate (in August?) last year. She has not let me hear the end of her being right about Trump's nomination.

I think the biggest takeaways for her looking at this as a voter have been the length of the election season (too fucking long) and the fragility of the "coalitions" under the guise of one party on both sides of the aisle. One comment she made that stood out early during this process was how most people were more aligned with with the "Democratic But" or the "Republican But" parties than anything else. As in "I am a Democrat but I am against these significant Democratic positions" or "I am a Republican but I am against these significant Republican positions." It has been a fun thought experiment to try to match different American politicians and/or policies with one of the 10+ German (her native land) party affiliations currently in the Bundestag

Has she tried the questions/positions thing on
isidewith.com

Even this late in the process (and having already voted), that might be interesting for her. See if there was a candidate that she matched better than she guessed, worse than she guessed, etc etc.

Just a thought.

Not directed at me, but ...

The thing with this is, what constitutes a battleground state is largely a function of the national spread. If it narrows only a little more, he doesn't have to win any blue states. A bit more than that, and he only needs most of the battlegrounds, and then weather/turnout plays a part in key areas, etc.

I'm still pretty confident Clinton will win but if -- and it's a big if -- the trend continues the same the next week as it has the last week. On election day it would be a 2-point gap, maybe 3 at most. That's still enough to say Clinton wins most of the time ... but not enough to make it a sure thing. That's really the worry I think. And at that point a few battleground states are leaning Trump, and states like Colorado become battleground or slightly leaning Hillary ... the landscape is just different than being +7 like it was not long ago. .

Yup, way too long.

That's the two things I am still not grasping. Not winning any blue (dark or light) and only winning most of the battlegrounds still will not get to 270.

Also, I still don't see the correlation between national numbers and percentages in battleground states. It would make sense if the pollings were only in those states but a majority of the population lives in CA, NY, IL and TX and those are not going to flip under any reasonable circumstances. Bush43 said it best when asked about winning percentage (vs. Kerry) - if it mattered, than he would have spent much more time getting the vote out in Texas.

Of the states he's not currently ahead on 538 (who has a cautious polling model, but still is not pro-Trump in any way shape or form) he needs to carry FL, NC, NV and then either PA or NH & CO.

I think with the trend and the early polling figures out of FL he's going to win that one. NV is a toss up, and the numbers in NC look decent for Hilary but with African-American early turnout down from what Obama did, I don't think she can be comfortable there either. I can easily see him carrying the first three.

The second part is where it gets difficult and she has a bit of a firewall but I agree with Brian that if the current trend keeps up into next week this thing is going to be way, way closer than anyone thought it would be. And another Hilary bombshell or some bad polling in a key state could be worst case scenario for the Dems.

538 has a 25% chance and until they are majorly wrong I still trust their methodology. At this rate it could be as high as 35 or 40% chance by election day.

Intriguing.

Was a server registered to the Trump Organization communicating with Russia’s Alfa Bank?

Trump has the bestest diplomacy, the greatest diplomacy blah blah blah

By my count, Trump gets to 266 if he wins every state that 538 either has him ahead, and all the states they have him losing by 1.4% or less. That's pretty close. So one more push from here and he's got a great shot at 266 (and 538 probably doesn't have all the data from the recent email stuff).

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

But then as Bucc said, he needs one more state that is pretty solid blue right now, with a week to go. But there's a group of 5 states that 538 has Clinton up between 4.6% and 5.5% (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire). It wouldn't take a huge swing from to put one of those in play.

But you can see why Clinton is still the big favorite. If Clinton gets a swing her way, she wins by a ton, if Trump gets another swing his way, it's just close. But if we believe 538's overall number at the moment, 25%ish shot for Trump, that is too close for comfort to me. That is not a huge longshot, that is an ordinary NFL comeback, maybe down 10 points in the 4th quarter.