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cartman 03-03-2014 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFL Cat (Post 2907329)
Hmmmm, then maybe our state department shouldn't be saying the Russians are violating that treaty then. Better forward that text to the State Department. Anyhoo, we'll take it to the UN. Problem solved. Time to hit the links!


They do seem to be violating this part:

Quote:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

But feel free to continue the snark.

ISiddiqui 03-03-2014 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2906984)
Let's also not give too much credit to Putin. While he's throwing his weight around he's also wrecking the country. The non-RGO still sucks, the demographics still suck, corruption is endemic, the threat of terrorism is ever-present, etc.

Putin isn't some super-genius transforming Russia, he's just trying to ring up "victories" against the West to paper over the problems.


Eh... when talking about "wrecking the country" one should look at GDP growth since he took over. Russia was a train wreck when he took power and has grown by leaps and bounds since there. There is a reason he's popular in the Russian Federation.

SFL Cat 03-03-2014 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 2907330)
They do seem to be violating this part:



But feel free to continue the snark.


If you insist. Really, though, it's kewl, dude...we'll just make some noise at the UN, they'll do nothing. Ukraine will just be absorbed into the Soviet Union, or Russian Federation or whatever it is they call it these days, and we won't miss our tee times.

Of course, in the future, if I were a country negotiating with the West about giving up nuclear weapons in exchange for "security arrangements" I'd lol and say, "yeah, we've seen how that one plays out. We'll keep our nukes, thanks."

cartman 03-03-2014 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFL Cat (Post 2907342)
If you insist. Really, though, it's kewl, dude...we'll just make some noise at the UN, they'll do nothing. Ukraine will just be absorbed into the Soviet Union, or Russian Federation or whatever it is they call it these days, and we won't miss our tee times.

Of course, in the future, if I were a country negotiating with the West about giving up nuclear weapons in exchange for "security arrangements" I'd lol and say, "yeah, we've seen how that one plays out. We'll keep our nukes, thanks."


Care to point out where the West has violated the terms of the Budapest Memorandum? Or are you going to prattle on about tee times. Wait, who was it who said "Watch this drive"?

Galaxy 03-03-2014 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 2907273)
Plenty of Putin's buddies have bought tons of property in London and the U.S. and put much of their money into banks based in these two countries (ironically, to protect it in case they run afoul of Putin).

Start freezing those accounts "while we look into allegations of impropriety".

That'll probably get his attention.


Push for the the 2018 World Cup to be removed from Russia?

flere-imsaho 03-03-2014 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2907355)
Push for the the 2018 World Cup to be removed from Russia?


:D

flere-imsaho 03-03-2014 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2907333)
Eh... when talking about "wrecking the country" one should look at GDP growth since he took over. Russia was a train wreck when he took power and has grown by leaps and bounds since there. There is a reason he's popular in the Russian Federation.


So they found more oil and expanded their exports at a time when the price of oil increased 10x. None of which disputes anything JPhillips posted.

Solecismic 03-03-2014 11:43 AM

I don't think we have much control over FIFA. And, considering their decision to hold the 2022 Cup in a sauna, I'm not sure we want much control over it. It's a hopelessly corrupt and ineffectual regime that produces one economic nuclear weapon every four years.

But, Europe does have a lot of control over FIFA, if somewhat united. This would be a good consensus threat - a list of European countries that would pull out or lobby for a new venue if Russia doesn't withdraw.

It can't go unnoticed that Putin made this move within days of the Olympics ending. These shows are important to the Russians and the awarding of these major world tournaments indicates legitimacy.

I wish our president would learn more about a situation before he starts drawing lines, though. That way, he can go into a meeting without looking like a fool afterward when Putin keeps his troops in place. Has Obama never played poker before?

ISiddiqui 03-03-2014 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 2907368)
So they found more oil and expanded their exports at a time when the price of oil increased 10x. None of which disputes anything JPhillips posted.


Putin also dealt with the oligarchs and made at least some of them divest their ownership. That oil was always there - so why wasn't it exploited during Yeltsin's time?

flere-imsaho 03-03-2014 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2907375)
Putin also dealt with the oligarchs and made at least some of them divest their ownership. That oil was always there - so why wasn't it exploited during Yeltsin's time?


You misunderstand me. I'm giving him credit on the oil thing, even if it was achieved through oligarchy. This, plus giving Russians consistency at the top of their government (no small thing following what happened when the Soviet Union dissolved), is the good. The stuff JPhillips mentioned (most of which is of the "ticking time bomb" variety) is the bad.

cartman 03-03-2014 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2907375)
Putin also dealt with the oligarchs and made at least some of them divest their ownership. That oil was always there - so why wasn't it exploited during Yeltsin's time?


It wasn't economically feasible to do so. The price per barrel in the early-mid 90s sat in the $20-25 range. Now that is 4x that price, it makes it worthwhile.

flere-imsaho 03-03-2014 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic (Post 2907371)
But, Europe does have a lot of control over FIFA, if somewhat united. This would be a good consensus threat - a list of European countries that would pull out or lobby for a new venue if Russia doesn't withdraw.


It's a creative idea, and could possibly work given that the major leagues, UEFA and the major clubs are already not very happy about the Qatar WC, mainly about it being held during the winter months.

flere-imsaho 03-03-2014 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 2907378)
It wasn't economically feasible to do so. The price per barrel in the early-mid 90s sat in the $20-25 range. Now that is 4x that price, it makes it worthwhile.


But, to be fair, the Soviet Union did do a pretty terrible job of oil production. Most any biography of a Russian oligarch you read, even the most critical, acknowledge that if these guys did anything, they made the old government franchises actually operate efficiently and bring modern methods to drilling and extraction.

Galaxy 03-03-2014 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 2907379)
It's a creative idea, and could possibly work given that the major leagues, UEFA and the major clubs are already not very happy about the Qatar WC, mainly about it being held during the winter months.


It's a bit out there...but it would certainly send a message. Isn't the 2022 World Cup in danger of being removed from Qatar now due to the timing, human rights, and corruption?

SFL Cat 03-03-2014 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 2907347)
Care to point out where the West has violated the terms of the Budapest Memorandum? Or are you going to prattle on about tee times. Wait, who was it who said "Watch this drive"?


How are you missing the point? You must be a lawyer. Lawyers are great at getting into the legalese of documents and arguing, no, we didn't REALLY violate the terms of the agreement as written (and defining the spirit of an agreement is too damn esoteric, anyway). However, if you'd like me to spell it out, if the signatories agree to honor and protect the boundaries of a sovereign state in exchange for that state giving up its big club (nukes)...and then you watch as everyone stands by and does nothing, or worse, makes idle threats and then does nothing as one of the signatories breaks the agreement and gobbles up that state, what makes you think I'm going to be willing to give up my big club in exchange for the same or similar agreements? Then again, they also say a sucker is born every minute.

JPhillips 03-03-2014 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2907333)
Eh... when talking about "wrecking the country" one should look at GDP growth since he took over. Russia was a train wreck when he took power and has grown by leaps and bounds since there. There is a reason he's popular in the Russian Federation.


But it's largely on the back of resource gathering rather than more sustainable industry. It's certainly better than nothing, but it leaves the economy very susceptible to booms and busts based on commodity prices.

cartman 03-03-2014 12:08 PM

You were the one that was arguing that the West was not honoring the agreement. There are tons of diplomatic channels being engaged at the moment. Not everything is going to be publicized or televised as things happen.

Again, you've more than made clear you think the current course of action is the wrong one, but haven't said what you think should be done.

rowech 03-03-2014 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFL Cat (Post 2907385)
How are you missing the point? You must be a lawyer. Lawyers are great at getting into the legalese of documents and arguing, no, we didn't REALLY violate the terms of the agreement as written (and defining the spirit of an agreement is too damn esoteric, anyway). However, if you'd like me to spell it out, if the signatories agree to honor and protect the boundaries of a sovereign state in exchange for that state giving up its big club (nukes)...and then you watch as everyone stands by and does nothing, or worse, makes idle threats and then does nothing as one of the signatories breaks the agreement and gobbles up that state, what makes you think I'm going to be willing to give up my big club in exchange for the same or similar agreements? Then again, they also say a sucker is born every minute.


It's not a computer game. Haven't we rushed into too many wars lately? There's not a damn thing we can do about it other than sanctions. If these warhawks have their way they would get us involved in a war with Russia for fun.

Besides, are they doing anything we haven't been doing for the last decade?

JPhillips 03-03-2014 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFL Cat (Post 2907385)
How are you missing the point? You must be a lawyer. Lawyers are great at getting into the legalese of documents and arguing, no, we didn't REALLY violate the terms of the agreement as written (and defining the spirit of an agreement is too damn esoteric, anyway). However, if you'd like me to spell it out, if the signatories agree to honor and protect the boundaries of a sovereign state in exchange for that state giving up its big club (nukes)...and then you watch as everyone stands by and does nothing, or worse, makes idle threats and then does nothing as one of the signatories breaks the agreement and gobbles up that state, what makes you think I'm going to be willing to give up my big club in exchange for the same or similar agreements? Then again, they also say a sucker is born every minute.


That's not really what happened. The Russians wanted "their" nukes back and Western nations wanted as few nuclear capable countries as possible. We made that agreement so that the nukes were in hands more reliable than the Ukrainians. They wanted something in return for giving up the nukes(although they never wanted to be a part of the nuclear club), so everyone made some non-binding security agreements.

RainMaker 03-03-2014 12:18 PM

Lets rush into a war with a nuclear country in a part of the world we are not familiar with over a piece of land no one here knew existed last week.

Chief Rum 03-03-2014 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907393)
Lets rush into a war with a nuclear country in a part of the world we are not familiar with over a piece of land no one here knew existed last week.


You didn't know the Ukraine existed?

RainMaker 03-03-2014 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2907401)
You didn't know the Ukraine existed?


No one knew what Crimea was last week. Everyone is an expert on it now.

cartman 03-03-2014 12:52 PM

I haven't heard what impact all this is having on the Paralympics, which start in Sochi on Friday.

JPhillips 03-03-2014 12:53 PM

Apparently the ruble and the Russian stock market tanked today.

Here's a good take on the weakness of the Russian position:

Quote:

President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of the EU offer led to an uprising in Kiev and the western and central parts of Ukraine, and to his own flight from Kiev, together with many of his supporters in the Ukrainian parliament. This marks a very serious geopolitical defeat for Russia. It is now obvious that Ukraine as a whole cannot be brought into the Eurasian Union, reducing that union to a shadow of what the Putin administration hoped. And though Russia continues officially to recognize him, President Yanukovych can only be restored to power in Kiev if Moscow is prepared to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and seize its capital by force. The result would be horrendous bloodshed, a complete collapse of Russia’s relations with the West and of Western investment in Russia, a shattering economic crisis, and Russia’s inevitable economic and geopolitical dependency on China.

http://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/20...y/ideas/nexus/

JPhillips 03-03-2014 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907405)
No one knew what Crimea was last week.


Well maybe no one that doesn't play Paradox games. I can tell you who ruled the area at various points from the 800s to 1948.

JonInMiddleGA 03-03-2014 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907405)
No one knew what Crimea was last week. Everyone is an expert on it now.


Umm ... huh?

Any student of the Cold War era (and/or the Soviet military) is familiar with the region due to Sevastopol.

Other students of history are familiar with the basics of the region due to a little thing called The Crimean War. The Charge of the Light Brigade plays a role in it's familiarity as well.

While it's not, say, Canada or something in terms of familiarity for most folks it's also not some backwater than no one has ever heard of either.

Galaxy 03-03-2014 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907405)
No one knew what Crimea was last week.


Have you ever watch the "Jay Walking" segment during Jay Leno's run on The Tonight Show? I wouldn't trust the opinion or knowledge of the average American.

NobodyHere 03-03-2014 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2907414)
Have you ever watch the "Jay Walking" segment during Jay Leno's run on The Tonight Show? I wouldn't trust the opinion or knowledge of the average American.


I also wouldn't trust a tv segment that was edited for comedy to give a fair perspective on things.

bhlloy 03-03-2014 01:37 PM

I was well aware of Crimea and some of its recent history (charge of the light brigade and all that) but I would have bet you a fair amount of money it was part of Russia and not the Ukraine. What a mess this is going to become.

Galaxy 03-03-2014 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 2907417)
I also wouldn't trust a tv segment that was edited for comedy to give a fair perspective on things.


Wasn't my point.

RainMaker 03-03-2014 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 2907413)
Umm ... huh?

Any student of the Cold War era (and/or the Soviet military) is familiar with the region due to Sevastopol.

Other students of history are familiar with the basics of the region due to a little thing called The Crimean War. The Charge of the Light Brigade plays a role in it's familiarity as well.

While it's not, say, Canada or something in terms of familiarity for most folks it's also not some backwater than no one has ever heard of either.


I'd wager most of the country couldn't even tell you where and what the capital of Canada is. And I'd wager well over 90% couldn't even tell you who the PM of that country is.

So while I'm sure cold war scholars and history buffs know about Crimea, the majority of people spouting opinions likely didn't know it existed yesterday. And the only reason they have a strong opinion on it is because their team told them to have one.

DaddyTorgo 03-03-2014 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907445)
I'd wager most of the country couldn't even tell you where and what the capital of Canada is. And I'd wager well over 90% couldn't even tell you who the PM of that country is.

So while I'm sure cold war scholars and history buffs know about Crimea, the majority of people spouting opinions likely didn't know it existed yesterday. And the only reason they have a strong opinion on it is because their team told them to have one.


I agree.

There's a lot of stupid in this country.

SFL Cat 03-03-2014 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2907392)
That's not really what happened. The Russians wanted "their" nukes back and Western nations wanted as few nuclear capable countries as possible. We made that agreement so that the nukes were in hands more reliable than the Ukrainians. They wanted something in return for giving up the nukes(although they never wanted to be a part of the nuclear club), so everyone made some non-binding security agreements.


Actually, we were more worried about those nukes falling into the hands of Islamic extremists, so it was a good deal for us, especially considering all the instability of that region at the time. As bad as 9/11 was, it would have been a lot worse if a mushroom cloud was involved.

SFL Cat 03-03-2014 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2907355)
Push for the the 2018 World Cup to be removed from Russia?


Not a bad idea. I don't know how effective it would be. The US and 65 or so other countries boycotted the 1980 Olympics games in Moscow after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan...and all it meant was more gold medals for mother Russia.

ISiddiqui 03-03-2014 03:12 PM

So I'm guessing this is going to be a whole lot of 'mobilization' with no real battle. Hard negotiations will take place - maybe Russia will get Crimea back, while Europe and the US get to place military bases in West Ukraine. Though East Ukraine wants to be Russian right now as well (it really was stupid for the Ukrainian Parliament to remove Russian as one of the official languages of the country).

Galaxy 03-03-2014 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SFL Cat (Post 2907464)
Not a bad idea. I don't know how effective it would be. The US and 65 or so other countries boycotted the 1980 Olympics games in Moscow after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan...and all it meant was more gold medals for mother Russia.


It would certainly make Putin look bad, since he loves the spotlight that these global games bring. it would put a lot pressure on FiFA. since it's a team sport competition, and you have that global media presence 24/7 that doesn't compare to 1980.

Galaxy 03-03-2014 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2907465)
So I'm guessing this is going to be a whole lot of 'mobilization' with no real battle. Hard negotiations will take place - maybe Russia will get Crimea back, while Europe and the US get to place military bases in West Ukraine. Though East Ukraine wants to be Russian right now as well (it really was stupid for the Ukrainian Parliament to remove Russian as one of the official languages of the country).


Do you believe they want to be their own country or actually be part of Russia?

ISiddiqui 03-03-2014 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaxy (Post 2907480)
Do you believe they want to be their own country or actually be part of Russia?


Oh, I think they want to be part of Russia.

RainMaker 03-03-2014 04:30 PM

I still think this is all just posturing. All sides have too much to lose.

Chief Rum 03-03-2014 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907405)
No one knew what Crimea was last week. Everyone is an expert on it now.


I knew about Crimea.

PilotMan 03-03-2014 06:34 PM

Boom. That just happened.

Ukrainian-Russian Tensions Dividing U.S. Citizens Along Ignorant, Apathetic Lines | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

JonInMiddleGA 03-03-2014 07:02 PM

On the whole Crimean thing ... maybe it's just an exposure thing as to Rainmaker's take versus mine.

So far, of my often very politically charged FB wall, I'm one of exactly 2 people I've seen even mention the subject. Yeah, both me & the other commentator arrived with at least working knowledge of the Crimean region well before last week. Beyond that I'm simply not seeing anything from the couldn't-find-it-on-the-map contingent, despite it being well represented (sad but true) amongst my politically inclined friends.

Galaxy 03-03-2014 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 2907445)
I'd wager most of the country couldn't even tell you where and what the capital of Canada is. And I'd wager well over 90% couldn't even tell you who the PM of that country is.

So while I'm sure cold war scholars and history buffs know about Crimea, the majority of people spouting opinions likely didn't know it existed yesterday. And the only reason they have a strong opinion on it is because their team told them to have one.


When Margaret thatcher died, I was at my friend's house and blurted out, "Oh, Margaret thatcher died." (viewing the headline online). He asked who she was. *facepalm*

SFL Cat 03-04-2014 08:15 AM

Margaret who? Kidding ... just kidding ...

Edward64 03-09-2014 02:14 PM

Some talking heads are saying Crimea is lost and I agree. I think Obama was outmaneuvered here but not sure any other administration could have done better as Crimea is next door and is clearly very strategic to Russia.

Ukraine PM to fly to U.S. to discuss Crimea crisis - CNN.com
Quote:

Washington has warned Moscow that any moves to annex Crimea would close the door to diplomacy. On Saturday, U.S. President Barack Obama rounded up world leaders to demand Russia "de-escalate the situation."

Ukrainian interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will fly to the United States this week to discuss the crisis in Crimea, as hostilities in the eastern European country's southern region intensify.

DaddyTorgo 03-09-2014 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2908965)
Some talking heads are saying Crimea is lost and I agree. I think Obama was outmaneuvered here but not sure any other administration could have done better as Crimea is next door and is clearly very strategic to Russia.

Ukraine PM to fly to U.S. to discuss Crimea crisis - CNN.com


It's less Obama having been outmanuevered then Merkel/the E.U. It's really got very little to do with/of minimal importance to the US. Slightly more to the EU, but really even that pales in comparison to its importance to Russia.

It's akin to Canada or Mexico to us. You wouldn't say Russia got outmaneuvered for failing to exercise influence in Canada or Mexico, so its a bit disingenuous to say the US got outmaneuvered in Crimea.

It'd be nice if we could have had more influence on what happens there, but its not really realistic.

Edward64 03-09-2014 03:06 PM

Possibly the only other action was to coach Ukraine to play down the rhetoric (or actually, play up the rhetoric towards Russia to reassure them).

molson 03-11-2014 09:01 AM

President Obama goes 'Between Two Ferns' with Zach Galifianakis to promote healthcare.gov - The Source - Latest news and updates from Boston.com

JediKooter 03-11-2014 04:00 PM

The irony runs deep in this one: Feinstein: CIA searched Intelligence Committee computers - The Washington Post

This is like the psychic that didn't see their demise coming. Seriously, America's intelligence agencies have been pretty much given carte blanche to spy on its citizens, but, now you only complain because they did it to you?

Edward64 03-18-2014 06:06 PM

Ukraine, I'm sorry but you are clearly in Russia sphere of influence/control and the majority of the pop in Crimea voted to return (even if there were voting irregularities, I think the majority vote would have been the same).

You lost Crimea, let it go. Play to retain the independence of the rest of the country.

Kremlin says Crimea is now officially part of Russia after treaty signing, Putin speech - The Washington Post
Quote:

MOSCOW — Invoking the suffering of the Russian people and a narrative of constant betrayals by the West, President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that Russia was within its rights to reclaim Crimea, then signed a treaty that did just that.

Putin, defiant in the face of U.S. and European pressure, dispensed with legal deliberation and announced a swift annexation of Crimea, as if to put Europe’s most serious crisis in decades beyond the point where the results could be turned back.

Playing a game of chicken that everyone knows you will ultimately lose (and may lose all).

Ukraine cries 'robbery' as Russia annexes Crimea - CNN.com
Quote:

And after a member of its military was killed, another wounded and more captured when masked gunmen seized their base near the Crimean regional capital, Simferopol, Ukraine's defense ministry authorized its forces to open fire.

Yatsenyuk warned that the crisis was shifting "from political to the military form, and the blame is on the Russian military."

Obama, economic aid to Ukraine and sanctions are good. Don't think about anything else or talk about a red line. If the GOP pressures you, ask them about Georgia.


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