This is the playbook. Count and certify the rural areas so it looks like Trump is winning late into the night, then when Atlanta count comes up scream fraud and how the dems are cheating because ballots mysteriously appeared over night.

Or not.

pic.twitter.com/5qgxvQd1UO

— NCGOP (@NCGOP) September 20, 2024

As a Dem, I find it somewhat comforting that the GOP feels the need to start introducing maximum shenanigans this late in the game (Nebraska, Georgia). That means that their internal polling shows that they are losing. They weren't acting like this when Trump was up 5 over Biden.

As an American, I am scared b/c once you break Democracy, it is hard to fix it.

That, or miss the deadline and try to throw it to the House.

How Republicans Could Block a Democratic Victory in Georgia – Mother Jones

Yeah. I can only assume their internal polling in the blue wall is really bad and Nebraska is a Hail Mary.

I’m really trying to be cautious but the more I think about it I think Harris could win in a landslide.

As an American, I'm scared because I don't believe Democracy works and because ours has been becoming more and more broken for decades, arguably generations. All of the deplorable election shenanigans could go away tomorrow and it wouldn't do any more than buy us a little more time.

This is fantastic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...m-walz-satire/

Can't wait until the find Cam Edwards FOFC account one day.

That's a name i haven't heard in years. I assume he's still doing the 2A stuff? I'd be afraid to see how radicalized he would have been forced to get to stay afloat as a podcast/online show host amongst the cesspool of awfulness that he'd be competing with for clicks.

Someone on twitter asked this question, and you know I enjoy gaming out a good thought exercise. "If Brian Kemp were the nominee for president and won, would he do anything different policy wise than trump?"
I do not like Brian Kemp, and disagree with him on many things, but the only thing I can think of that he would be worst then Trump on is that he would definitely sign a national abortion ban. Other than that, he plays on the social warfare angles but less extreme than the full MAGA people. He is more classic style voter suppression than full on disenfranchisement of Trump. He is basically MAGA-lite. Closer akin to classic conservatives than full fascist like Desantis. When we talk about what comes after Trump, I think Kemp is trying to lead that replacement. Enough MAGA to keep the extreme on board without going so far you make the suburban moms to throw up in their mouths.

Kemp would do whatever his wife tells him to.

That dimwitted sack of shit being in office is the #2 motivation for me moving out of Georgia.

I meant to mention, I know there are people like Jon that hates him.


Edit: Just to add that is why I think he might be successful Post-Trump. There are hard core MAGA people in the state that hate him, but he still pulled more than enough of the MAGA demo to win reelection quite handily. He will most likely become Senator in 2 years over Jon Ossoff, and that is really depressing. Ossoff has been a great Senator, and has been very successful at getting many bi-partisan reforms done as a freshman.

Bipartisan is the new racist in terms of electability, it seems.

We can thank Supreme Court approved gerrymandering. The number of actual competitive districts anywhere is so small there's no need for moderation at any level of elected government now.

Why, will he be Secretary of State again when he's running?

He wasn't the last time he won a state election.

Harris has accepted a proposed CNN debate on October 23rd. It is unlikely Trump will accept, but also that is so late.

But will Harris accept the proposed CNN debate?

My Pillow guy goes full Nazi.

Sleep like a dream with our Standard MyPillow for just $14.88! Use promo code R277 to snag this deal and wake up feeling refreshed every morning. Don't miss out on the ultimate comfort upgrade - get yours today! https://t.co/CSOJIp3t1p pic.twitter.com/8ss7s3jLy6

— MyPillow (@MyPillowUSA) September 20, 2024

It's too obvious for the people that look for hidden codes in everything.

Please don't be dumb enough to buy $30 dollars of silver from Trump for $100.

I just got an e-mail from Rural King about the Trump AR-15 that's easily twice the cost of a similar tier AR-15, so $100 for $30 worth of silver wouldn't surprise me.

On the other hand, 30 pieces of silver seems like the right price to betray your country.

A My Pillow for the cost of 14 Heil Hitler Dollars sounds like a good price. I’m sure they only come in white

Amazing to me that a nut like RFK Jr is so close to having some real power.

How exactly are they going to have less regulations on corporations and at the same time force companies to use less chemicals?

I saw a common sense point this morning that I had not actually considered. Candidates need to grab low information and undecided voters. So they should not campaign on policy. Because, by definition, voters who care about policy are not low information and not undecided. They’ve already picked the party whose policies they agree with. Campaign on vibes. Govern on policy.

That was a takeaway I had from the story about your neighbor who wanted an Obama/Palin ticket.

:)

I heard the same thing from several pundits. As much as people consider undecided voters the "persuadable" voter, in reality they generally have leans and are going to break pretty predictably. The real wild cards are the low information voter who are just anti-politics, but will still vote in Presidential years. They will tend to break basically on just what you said, vibes.

Which argues for a shortened Presidential campaign season as it's hard to ride vibes only for 18+ months. Harris certainly has an advantage from that perspective.

Welp. MAGA may not believe the Robinson story, but apparently Robinson's entire senior campaign staff and nearly all of the lower-level staffers do.

I've confirmed that @markrobinsonNC is down to just three campaign staffers -- there were more resignations beyond the four senior campaign staffers named in today's announcement: https://t.co/yL2kwEJQIZ #ncpol

— Colin Campbell (@RaleighReporter) September 22, 2024

I was driving through the back roads of North Carolina (think whatever is between TN and Asheville) and I saw a home with Trump and Stein signs outside.

What the hell is the cross section between Donald Trump and Josh Stein supporters? Is it just that they're so racist that they can't support the black guy who hates black people?

Maybe one spouse is the Trump supporter and the other is the Stein supporter?

This is one of the saddest things I've ever seen. Even worse that a 4 year old would actually want this which means he's been indoctrinated well at such an early age - and you have to assume it was "suggested" by the parents.

But no, it's not a cult - totally normal for a 4 year old to have a political candidate-themed birthday party and to make the party more about your cult leader than your child. Sheesh.

It's my grandsons 4th birthday party today!
Tyner's Trump 202FOURTH Birthday. pic.twitter.com/sjEnj9qcW6

— Tracy (@TracyTruth17) September 21, 2024

Robinson has a new campaign manager...or maybe he doesn't? :popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

I am officially announcing tonight that I have assumed the position of acting Campaign Manager for @markrobinsonNC

Mark is a great American and a PERFECT governor for North Carolina.

We look forward to a BIG victory in November!

— Jack Burkman (@Jack_Burkman) September 22, 2024




Online rumors of new hires to our campaign are just that - rumors. We look forward to announcing additional staff roles soon. #ncpol #ncgov

— Mark Robinson (@markrobinsonNC) September 23, 2024

My favorite headline so far: ‘Black Nazi’ Mark Robinson Denies Hiring MAGA Troll Fraudster as Campaign Manager

The Trump campaign is sending targeted ads out to Georgia voters using shutterstock pics from the country Georgia.

I don't know where the number stands, but I'm 100% sure that the 10 point swing in AZ shown by NYT over the past month isn't true. There isn't any state that's swung ten points to either candidate over the past month.

I swear that's not the first time the GOP has done this.

Percentage of Trump voters that even know there is a country named Georgia? 5, maybe 10%?

"I did not post those comments, but whatever you do, don't look in to it!"

Breaking:

After CNN reported that Mark Robinson posted racist and lewd comments on a pornographic website ...
|
Robinson REJECTED offers from supporters to track down the origin of the posts, sources tell WRAL. #ncpolhttps://t.co/4QbaPykeXX

— Andy Specht (@AndySpecht) September 23, 2024

You know, if* Trump loses, a lot of it will be because he ended Roe

And there's an irony in Trump losing because of abortion. Because can you think of a GOP politician who would care less about abortion than Trump? I assume that his personal belief falls somewhere between not caring at all and vaguely thinking that it is nice if your mistress can conveniently get an abortion.

I mean, if Mike Pence or Mike Hucakabee lost an election because they helped ban abortion, there would be a bit of nobility in that. They wouldn't like losing, but they could be proud that they lost for doing the politically unpopular but morally right thing.

But Trump? To lose on something that he didn't care about? Or that he even did not agree with? Funny in its way.

*[Of course, he could still win.]

Have you seen any analysis on why the NYT/Sienna polls seem like such an outlier this election cycle? They seem to be further out there than Rasmussen at this point.

Bulwark touched on it today, and I was feeling the same over the weekend as I was pushed articles from a bunch of different sites alternately telling me that Trump was winning the swing states, closing in nationally, and losing ground while Harris had lost momentum, was winning in swing states, and expanding her lead nationally.

It's information overload to the nth degree. It's all useless at this kind of contradictory saturation point.

Being a double-digit IQ socialist is a "vibe"?

Who knew.

oh burn

Ehh, this I don't buy.

I think Harris is still ahead a little, but it's tightening as one would expect. I also think it's possible I'm completely wrong, most likely reason would be polls being off in one way or another (most likely being overestimating Trump's support a bit). I think either candidate could still win by a decent margin, or it could be very close, but if I had to bet I'd bet on Harris, even dispensing with my personal feelings.

But this is kind of what pseudoscience does; throws enough stuff at the wall so you don't know what to believe. Polling isn't much different; there's a lot of bad information in the mix, but if you filter that out there's always good information to be found that's a lot more likely to be accurate.

Trump has a plan to pay off the debt, he'll just sign a paper that says crypto pays all 35 trillion.

But Harris needs to flesh out her plans.

He also doesn't have a plan to deport millions but he said it would be a lot easier to do if the media didn't cover it.

I've been using this as an aggregator site for polling but maybe there is a better one available. Even Rasmussen has Harris +2 so the NYT polling is strange.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

If he weren’t backed by types like Miller, I could see his plan being to say that he is going to do it, not do anything, then say he did it and have everyone believe him because their lives aren’t affected by immigrants one bit (like the guy in PA interviewed at a rally the other day who admitted that no, they’re not hurting him personally).

Trump went after John Deer tonight at, of all places, a town hall with farmers, saying he would put a 200% tariff on their products made outside the US.

Do farmers like John Deere? I know they _need_ John Deere, but from what I understand the company has been actively antagonizing their customers in recent years with technology that makes it impossible to repair their own gear. Throw in a good rant about producing stuff in the good ol' U S of A and it seems like a plausible enough idea (not saying it went well, just it doesn't sound outlandish from a high level concept).

There are still farmers that use the brand as a part of their personality, but the company has definitely taken a hit in reputation recently. I imagine them moving manufacturing to Mexico will erode the brand further. I think most farmers will like this idea.

They're gonna get subsidies to pay for the stuff anyway, right?

People don't understand tariffs.

If Trump says he'll punish John Deere for moving jobs to Mexico with a 200% tariff, that's horrible policy (and I think illegal under NAFTA), but it's, IMO, smart limbic stem politics.

Random thing I just realized: Ryan Routh (class of '84) and Mark Robinson (based on his bday, likely either '86 or '87) were at Grimsley High School together for at least a year.
#DoBetterGenX

Better start going through the Yearbooks now Ben to get a heads up on the next one. :)

The lead poisoning really messed us up.

You're smarter than this, Jon. No way in hell do you really think Kamala Harris is a socialist.

Has anyone else seen the upcoming documentary footage of Trump speaking to Lev Parnas and deciding right there to remove the Ukraine ambassador because Parnas made some shit?

I can't imagine how badly Putin and others were able to play him in private meetings.

We also have Bernie Moreno telling people at a campaign stop that abortion shouldn't be an issue for women over 50.

I think all of this is true, but there is an identity to the company that is similar to what you have in other parts of the country with owning non-American-made vehicles. Like "oh, it's nice you got a truck - too bad it isn't an F150." I think the identity is that having a John Deere tractor means something and you still see a lot of people wearing the ball caps and t-shirts. Plus, the Venn diagram of people that vote for Trump and people that are into a status item made by John Deere is a big overlap, whereas the people that fit into those two categories AND understand foreign manufacturing and the nuances of what it means is not going to be a real high portion.

“No tax on tips or social security” is another blatant lie. How does he expect to pay for that. It’s not an edict, it has to be in legislation. But I’m sure it moves the needle for a few low information people.

Project 2025 purposes getting rid of mandatory overtime pay. Instead, companies would have the option of converting OT to PTO/Comp time.

There is so much he is promising that has zero chance of actually happening, and he is not done. He is going to continue to make as many wild promises as he needs to so that he can keep the press' attention and hopefully hit on something that low information voters really likes. His semi-protectionism is one of the things that endeared him to the white working class in the first place, so he can keep making more and more protectionism promises along with as many free giveaways a he can think of because he knows he will have zero accountability on actually doing any of it. It honestly isn't his worst campaign strategy.

This isn't "Project 2025" Trump. This is "Santa Claus" Trump. "Santa Claus" Trump is what he hopes will get him the win, so he can go back to golfing without worrying about going to jail while his cronies govern by Project 2025.

So already in Ohio civilians have the right to file criminal charges and a Haitian organization in Springfield just did that against Trump and Vance. The charges actually look legit.

Trump creating loopholes in the tax code sort of goes against the big push to simplify the tax code and close looholes the Rs were so on about in trump's first term.

The DNI briefed Trump tonight that they are tracking credible threats from Iran to try to assassinate him.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I think Trump has already been assinated.

No taxes, paid for private schools, govt covered IVF among other things i cant even remember. He may as well promise free insulin and free Ozempic. Throw in shit like free after hours vet care and Wal Mart staying open 24 hours again. Bring back the McRib as a permanent item. Unlimited off-road diesel. Tax free ammunition. Doubling military pay. Training more traffic cops, but only ones who pull over “poor drivers”. Mandating tour Uber driver speaks English. No more overseas phone support. Etc etc.

Kamala Harris is doing a sit down interview with Stephanie Ruhle tonight on MSNBC. I wonder if this is the first or will it be the only?

Reading some speculation that pollsters are in one of two camps for a likely voter model. One has Harris up 4 points or so and one has the race tied.

I did some googling the other day and saw someplace that the NYT/Sienna poll has worked in an assumption of under 30 voters at a low rate compared to other polls and previous elections. That could explain why their polls are so different this cycle. I thought that was interesting.

Nothing public yet, but it's being reported that NYC mayor Adams has been indicted by the feds.

I read an interesting fact which makes sense as i think about the history of our presidential elections, I guess, that a Democrat has not been elected to replace a Democrat since 1856, and on the Republicansl side, it's only happened in 1988 and 1924.

I like the fact that we've swung from one side to the other pretty consistently for a couple centuries as a collective electoral checks and balances thing, but that feels particularly dangerous when one party has decided to move in a much more extreme direction than the other. Complacency and 'things will be just fine as they have for decades and decades" is all well and good, and has borne itself out for the most part, until it ceases to be true. Because by then, it will be too late.

It also means of course that whether or not Trump wins, the GOP will likely be in the oval office in 2028 or 2032 regardless of what happens.

Amazing how MAGA is firmly in the pro-Adams camp now that he's been indicted.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking but I think the post Trump GOP has real issues.

No one is going to capture the MAGA crowd the way Trump has. We saw Desantis flame out, if Trump/Vance lose I suspect Trump blames it on JD and torpedoes his career, Haley won't drive the MAGA voters, and then you are left with a bunch of unserious people like Vivek, Don Jr., etc...

Meanwhile Harris would have the benefit of being incumbent and the dems have a strong bench with guys like Shapiro, etc...

Now obviously there are a number of factors we don't know will exist, but all things being equal Trump has ran out the old guard and made the rest of the party all about devotion to one man.

Rudy Guillani has now been disbarred in DC too:


x.com

ping: Lawyers.

Is this a good strategy when dealing with the feds?

Not a lawyer, but gonna guess that's a no. :)

Worked for the Secret Service

One of the key lessons learn from watching all those YT videos with cops & perps, never talk to the cops if you're guilty. Call your lawyer from jail and start there.

I'm amazed at perps talking even after Miranda is given.

Never talk to the cops, even if you think you are innocent.

I've had clients confess to crimes because they didn't realize what they did was a crime and they thought they were exonerating themselves.

You need a lawyer just as much if innocent as you do if you are guilty.

So the FBI asked Adams for his password. Adams said he'd love to help. The thing is, he changed the password because he didn't want his staff to accidentally destroy evidence but wouldn't ya know, he for got the new password and couldn't help the FBI.

And Urban Meyer

wow

This quote is almost exactly a year old, and maybe it was posted here or I saw it last year and forgot it, but holy crap this is one hell of a funny quote:

I know some will take exception to what NC has done but I'm okay with the idea. It's not unusual in my line of work to do data cleanup/archival, it's actually a "best practice".

The article doesn't get into it but the issue I see is (1) how will people know if they've been rolled off or how easy is it to doublecheck (2) is it the same process to re-register as the orig ... assume it is (3) how long will it take to resolve any issues/discrepancies.

Ideally, this would have been done 3 months ago. Forty days is tight. Dems just need to tell everyone to check their status ... now.

Access to this page has been denied


I would be interested in the split between registered Dems vs Rep vs Independant, that would be an interesting stat.

This part is an interesting explanation in relatable terms.

That is the best X-Pac based political analysis that I've ever read.

Yeah, this is normal cleanup of voters who died, moved, haven't voted in a couple of election cycles. Every state does it. If they were doing it right now it would be an issue but over the past 20 months is not a problem.

Oh, that’s good. So plenty of communication, widely publicized and people know how to check?

I know in Ohio it takes 15 seconds for you to look up if you are registered to vote.

I, as an NC voter, just set a stopwatch and looked up my registration status.

27 seconds.

The headline made it sound like this just dropped. But the article notes that it has been over the course of 20 months.

No one (Dem or GOP) wants ineligible people voting. Keeping the rolls updated is good.

FWIW, I just checked my SC registration. Pretty sure it took less than a minute, probably around 30 seconds like albion. We moved to NC in 2014. Last time I checked out of curiosity--either 2020 or 2022, likely the former--I was still on the roll there, so at least six years. I'm finally off of it now.

Just checked in Jersey, took about 4 seconds.

Not that Jersey matters unless you listen to right wing X trolls who think Trump should be winning all 50 states.