I think polls like that are pretty much pointless. What is the difference between major and minor role. We can't have 'no role', that's literally not possible.

If you ask questions like whether the US or EU should take the lead diplomatically, what the US should do if the EU doesn't act, what kinds of sanctions should be enacted if any, what level of force should we be willing to consider if any ... then you have something specific.

I don't think you need to have something specific in this situation. "General sentiment" is good enough.

And although Dems and GOP differed some, the majority of each party had pretty much the same general sentiment.

It's no longer a cold war. Russia coming in hot to Ukraine as of maybe a half hour ago

SI

Have no idea of the validity of these, but a lot of folks on Reddit and Twitter keep pointing to these two accounts to get on the ground reports. Could be bots, could be troll farms - I have no idea, but do have some decent videos.

Ukraine War Report (@UkrReport) | Twitter
OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) | Twitter

SI

It's a wait and respond. Strike and counter strike, where the counter might not come quickly. There won't be an Archduke Ferdinand moment.

This is a very solid opinion piece about the future and what happens after this operation in the Ukraine. It touches on Russia, China, and global influences. It feels pretty well thought out.

https://wapo.st/3paV11X

I'm not trying to be difficult here, but I seriously have very little idea what major role vs. minor role vs. no role even means. In terms of making diplomatic noise, raising issues at the UN, I can see minor role would probably mean 'someone else does that' but otherwhise it can be all over the map.

If Biden decided tomorrow to implement a 'minor role' policy, what even is that?

I don't know how this is going to play out or what happens after, but Kagan has been wrong about every single major foreign policy issue of the past 30 years. If he is saying something will happen, you can probably bank on the opposite happening.

He is a terrific writer though and his writings on domestic stuff is not too bad.

It is wild to see CNN go from garbage cable news to an actual quality news outlet when something like this happens. Their international coverage is terrific. Giving time to actual journalists on the ground and not some hack from the Brookings Institute.

It’s beyond comprehension as to how we’ve arrived to a point where a large portion of the US govt is taking the stance of “our guy is best buds with the other guy who started an unjustified war and we’re going to shout it loud and proud. Oh by the way, why is your guy trying to deescalate the situation? What a loser”.

I'm always good for a cheery thought right? So I'll share my latest one

Ukraine this, Ukraine that, most popular word going right now.

But if on January 3rd, 2022 (one year after the current U.S. Congress was sworn in) you'd asked the 535 members to find Ukraine on a map in under 30 seconds, I absolutely do not believe 50% could have done so. And I'd guarantee that the party line results wouldn't be nearly as dramatically different as some of you would like to think.

And forget finding Moldova on that same map.
At least 1/3rd think that's a brand of watch.

And I'm not digging back through this thread to see how much this has been addressed, I'll just mention the question my child msgd me a little while ago.

"If you're China, do you take advantage of this situation? And how much?"

If Putin didn't have express permission from Xi, I'd be astonished. Russia moved troops into attack position just as the Olympics were ending. Putin would even give up Crimea tomorrow if Xi blinked.

Russia will be mostly cut off from the Western world financially today. Without China's support, that would be devastating. With China's support, they can weather that as well as Europe can weather the recession that's about to start (and likely reaches the US soon enough).

Reading the WaPo analysis... yeah, Putin is on that track - he said as much. The question is what happens when the rest of the world realizes its dependence on China has a cost. We've been happy to close our eyes for a long time. They just got opened, I hope.

Meanwhile, Trump... not helpful, dude... this has been in the works a lot longer than you think and has very little to do with you. In fact, you might be dismayed in just how little you matter in the world. Be an American and support your country, please. I get it, you don't like Biden. He's still our president and this is a tough one.

So, how long until the Baltic states are threatened? Finland/Sweden - their gamble of neutrality above all else? I think that has more to do with the world's ability to start thinking about an alternative to letting China own everyone than anything else. And how do we react when China takes Taiwan?

I don't think anyone can parse all this right now. I really thought Putin would stay in the east of Ukraine and the troop buildup was there only to keep Kyiv from defending the east. This is moving faster than I thought possible.

Isn't even on my radar tbh. I don't know if I've read anything other than international reports on the conflict tonight and they've haven't mentioned him at all.

(I know that wasn't strictly intended for me, merely my related observation to your observation)

Russian stock market down 44%. Won't happen, but if you booted them from SWIFT right now, that economy may just completely collapse.

LOL at how that first part is framed as a "yes/no" question when we all know that "no" wasn't even an option.

China calls for talks on Ukraine, OKs Russian wheat imports
"Yeah, yeah, we want peace - though we're definitely not condemning this. Oh, here's a lifeline to prop up your economy and get food on the cheap for us"


Not a foreign policy expert by any stretch and this was my read, too. I thought this was just going to be Putin taking those couple of regions and calling it a day like he did with Crimea or South Ossetia. China's ever content to play the long game but I'm sure they're good with normalizing this so they can see exactly how the west would react to their inevitable takeover of Taiwan. Selfishly, I really wanted to visit Taiwan before that happened and I'm wondering if I'll get that chance. Like you said, this is moving much faster than I expected.

SI

This is one of those days where if I post about politics, I probably end up saying some things I regret.

I'll just leave it at I'm against the authoritarian dictator launching an unprovoked attack on a Western democracy, and I think that other folks should also be against it.

With regards to oil prices, I think this is exactly what Putin wants. So much of Russia's income is tied to oil and lower oil prices have been hurting them for a while now. For a number of years now, the US and Saudi have tried to hit them with keeping oil prices low and it's harmed the Russian economy. Saudi only needs oil prices to be like $20/barrel to be profitable while Russia needs it to be something like $80-$100/barrel to do a lot of their exploration (it's just harder to get to). So in a lot of ways, this plays into their hands.

SI

This is what kills me. The West has so many economic levers to use on Russia. Heck, just freezing the assets of all known Russian oligarchs would probably do it. Nationalize Chelsea Football Club, anyone?

I had wondered if Russians still owned any foreign teams. Yanking them was the very first thing that came to mind, honestly.

I think specifically targeting the assets of the Russian oligarchs is more likely to hurt Putin than general sanctions that will be hard to enforce. Seize teams, yachts, homes, bank accounts, etc. Deny travel and kick kids out of private schools. Make the rich in Russia choose their lifestyle or Putin.

I'm still quite certain that Russian oligarchs and middle eastern sheiks are responsible for the cash real estate deals in NYC that have allowed these huge, empty high rise residential buildings. They are purely a way to launder cash, and skyrocket property values. Hence....trumps love of all things Russia. I'm certain that's coming into play with his businesses.

Western sanctions might be an inconvenience to Russia, but China will prop Russia up.

The question is whether Russia can pretty much achieve their objectives quickly so Putin can show a win. Essentially keep the 2 Russian friendly regions and beat down Ukraine's military for the forseeable future. I don't see Russia wanting to occupy all of Ukraine (or at least not long term).

Haven't seen any recent polls but suspect majority of Russian's support this invasion (e.g. patriotism). They will turn against the war if it lasts too long and think Putin knows this. If there is any oligarch dissent, it won't be powerful enough right now. They owe their current and future fortunes by being in Putin's good graces.

So in the short term, Ukraine will have to put up a good showing. If they are able to prolong it and inflict heavy casualties, then all bets are off. But odds are in Putin's favor right now.

Strictly in military terms - I will be interested in reading how well Russian troops fight & effectiveness of their weaponry.

They want to dissolve and annex it, not occupy it. Russian popularity polls are meaningless in determining the future direction of the State.

I basically think to really make a difference, we'd have to be willing to commit at least our planes to provide air support, which would put us in a war with Russia which isn't going to happen. Sanctions of whatever kind are going to be too slow to really matter on their own. As ever I hope to be proven wrong, but I don't think Ukraine is Afghanistan.

I think if Putin can keep "his" two regions and wipe out the current Ukranian government and replace them with his puppet government -that's all he needs. Why take over an unconquerable country when you just need to neuter them, strip their assets, and make them friendly to you? How the world reacts to him wiping out the current government will tell him and China all they need to know.

SI

I don't know what percentage of Chelsea supporters are part of the "keep politics out of sports" crowd, but Boris Johnson would prefer not taking the risk of losing that percentage over Ukraine.

In fact he actually "misspoke" when asked about Roman Abramovich earlier this week

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60485759

I think Putin would be happy with a situation similar to Belarus.

Yeah, Putin’s end goal is to put a puppet in charge of Ukraine. I have no doubt he’ll absorb Belarus and Ukraine again into something like the USSR, but that’s a few steps down the line. Probably the disputed regions will be absorbed into Russia immediately a la Crimea.

This is a playbook he’ll try on the Baltics in a few years when things calm down again. Plus Georgia obviously with the existing situation in South Ossetia.

I'm not sure about the Baltic states as they're in NATO but I would be very nervous right now.

SI

Sanctions yes, targeting oligarchs, no.

Russian oligarchs want their money in the West, where it can't be nationalized by China or stolen by Putin if they piss him off. Additionally, they want their penthouse apartment in NYC, villa on the French Riviera, country estate in Berkshire, Yacht 1 moored in Miami, Yacht 2 moored in Nice, kids attending Philips Exeter or Eton, etc....

The West has the means to lock all of that down pretty quickly. This is exactly the mechanism behind the Magnitsky Act, and we know the Magnitsky Act works because it's the only thing that appears to discomfit Putin.

The lever is so obvious, so clear, so workable, that it's so, so disappointing that apparently most western governments appear to lack the will to use it (or, like Trump & Boris, are apparently too compromised to use it).

Freezing assets of oligarchs would be swift and something Russia cares about. Good chance it would help bring an end to the war or at least cause Russia to pullback.

This won't happen because we have our own oligarchs who have ties to them. Lots of banks and large real estate entities propped up by their money. But it is a path to end the war quickly.

Germany not much help.

Incredible. Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus are blocking a decision to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT network.
I expected Italy, Hungary and Cyprus. But GERMANY? Shameful. pic.twitter.com/xYdcrUj5cP

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 24, 2022

lol

NEW: US sanctions won't target Rosneft or the energy sector, really. Main focus = financial sector.

"Cutting off Russian oil & gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit," SAO said. "Our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours” w/ @woodruffbets & @bjlefebvre

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 24, 2022

Also forgot how shitty UK libel laws are.

Russian oligarchs are already emailing UK journos demanding they withdraw references to criminality/Putin links. Boris Johnson should change UK's insane libel law.

— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) February 24, 2022

Very happy Im not 18.

Ever read the book 1984?

I saw gas jumped to $3.44 here. And then I figured it out, Russia invades Ukraine? Profit opportunity.

Wait, what now? Get off my land!

This really is a reminder of just how much of a plaything we are to the rich. We have tools that we know could really hurt the people responsible and would make sense, considering the egregiousness of the offense. Instead, we're going through a bunch of slow play measures that will take place over months and years that will likely enrich our richest and harm their richest, but only in so much that they lose points on the big financial scoreboard. And, of course, it's the poor in the Ukraine who will suffer and, frankly, the poor here.

SI

Who do you think is buying these properties: Knight Frank

It was more a reference to me living in Berkshire.

TBF though, quite a lot of people in the south of England genuinely don’t know where Newbury is :)

Vitali Klitschko is the mayor of Kyiv. His brother is in the reserve army, and they both say they're going to fight.

It will be interesting to see how this rallies the Ukranian population, though I hope it does not become a Pat Tillman story.

And with protests also active in Russia, Putin has very little good will right now, which almost makes him more dangerous as it seems the worst thing in his mind is to be humiliated on the world stage.

dola - If true this won't make him happy either

Ukrainian ambassador says Russian platoon surrendered to Ukrainian forces

I don't think Putin is the genius some make him out to be. But he did learn that the West can be bought and has spent decades making sure that all the key figures around the world are in his pocket.

We knock the US, but the UK is actually the place that Russians go to for money laundering. They are in a unique position to stop the war in its tracks by clamping down and freezing criminal assets. They won't, and will even go as far as to use their libel laws to shut journalists up to protect Russia.

FWIW, I'm getting the latest news (or misinformation) from

Reddit - Dive into anything

Those boys will have a nice welcome back home once this is all settled.

Er, $3.44 is within normal range in Atlanta. Think it was about $3.30 about 2 weeks ago.

The war (and is it really a war when it's just one country trying to take over another country) stops if and only if Xi realizes that the EU/UK/US/Canada will pay a heavy price to isolate countries that act in this manner.

So far, we've blinked. No one expected NATO to activate militarily, but what we didn't know is whether we'd try and isolate Russia over the attack. Nope. Their oil and gas is still quite welcome in the west, and at inflated costs and without any sign we want to return to energy and materials independence.

Xi wins without having to lift a finger or risk a single troop. It's Putin's reputation and legacy in tatters. I don't see a Putingrad any time in the future. Not even another sanitized Volgograd or St. Petersburg.

If militaries are involved then it is a war.

And it gives Xi his blueprint for what to do with Taiwan.

SI

And the precedent has been set by the USA that it is okay to invade countries in the name of your ideology.

For better or worse, I have no doubt that an attack on Taiwan would lead to American intervention. The history and ties to Taiwan are a lot different than with Ukraine.

Interesting. I don't think it actually would. I don't think we have a stomach for it. I agree on the historical ties, I just don't think that would be close to enough. We're not really risking a nuclear war over Taiwan and that's become more and more obvious to both sides.

I absolutely think we'd risk nuclear war over Taiwan. I'm open to arguments over whether we should, but Taiwan and who lost China is still too fresh to think we'd let the Chinese take the island. Hopefully, and I think this is true, the Chinese understand the differences between the two situations.

China takes Taiwan and good luck 18-22 year olds.

I need to start a garden and get more ammo and a long gun.

If China was to invade Taiwan, the US will have to respond militarily for sure. We have great relationship with Taiwan on trade, technology (much more strategic to us than Ukraine) etc. but the main reason is because of global credibility. If the US did not come to Taiwan's aid, say goodbye to US leadership in all of Asia and greatly reduced influence everywhere else.

Conflict with China over Taiwan does not mean going nuclear. I can see it escalate to that point so it is a risk, but China knows its a MAD II proposition. And China is not crazy (unlike their crazy kid neighbor to the east).

The only thing I can see forcing China's hand to invade is if Taiwan was to "formally" declare independence. Otherwise, China will play the long game - buy off politicians, get friendly ones elected, sabotage, maybe let loose a virus at the airport etc.

Don't forget to get far away from a city. I've read Idaho is where the survivalists favor.

You can get cheaper ones for < $800 but spend $2,000-$2,500 to get a really nice one (or two). Think of it as a "family heirloom" that you can hand down if not needed.

Daniel Defense AR15 Semi Automatic Rifles | Daniel Defense

It would have been better if Biden excluded the first sentence.

I don't disagree with the Biden strategy to incrementally ramp up pressure but not sure I agree with it either. I can go either way here. However, the first sentence is apologetic, arguably a lie, and makes him look weak.

Russian troops in the outskirts of Kiev. Some articles saying Kiev will fall by this weekend and sure looks likely.

Maybe it is just me, but the bolded part seems to be a common reality in various parts of American society at the moment.

Why would Taiwan lead to a greater loss of US credibility than Ukraine?

Without question.

The US is actually handling this the way that people want. It's not like they could have singlehandedly stopped Putin if they wanted to. It would have been interjecting the US into EU decisions more than necessary. Like it or not, the US plays 2nd chair in this one.

The US has had a long strategic relationship with Taiwan (do we even have one with Ukraine other than tangentially via EU/Nato?). We've sent flotillas in the straits as a show of strength, support etc. We've visibly supplied them with military arms and (recently) trainers etc.

We let Taiwan go in a Chinese invasion without supporting it militarily will speak volumes to APAC nations and anywhere else we are competing against China.

I want this to be true but doubt it. Not near the Bagdad Bob level but an attempt at morale boosting propaganda.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/ukra...irections.html

There were reports from BBC this morning that they have blown up a number of bridges toward the city and that they repelled a paratrooper attack. They were also reporting that the Ukraine army was proving challenging for the initial push from the Russians. It's only a matter of time though. The long numbers and resources game is only favoring one side here.

We've been giving Ukraine military aid as well for the last several years. I don't see what length of relationship has to do with it. We've already softened our stance in multiple ways. It's been 50 years since Taiwan was replaced by China in the UN as the recognized government; over 40 since the US officially recognized China's government. We've done nothing substantive really in response to China's actions in Tibet, in the Ughyur genocide, in breaking their promises relating to Hong Kong, Tiananmen Square, the list goes on and on. Bluster though we might, actually backing up Taiwan if it comes to that would be a drastic break with our previous policy regarding China, which is the same as it is in Ukraine/Russia and other such situations; loudly register our opinions with statements and otherwhise conclude that our economic interest in maintaining trade with Russia and China is far more important than anything else. I would be extremely surprised if we aren't just playing a delaying game; trying to make China wait as long as possible and pay as high a price as we can for taking Taiwan, not actually really thinking we are going to prevent it long-term.

Don't you guys find weird that in the age of mobile phones, internet and everybody recording even the most stupid and meaningless videos, we have barely seen any videos of actual combat?

Maybe it's the news in Spain only but we have just seen images of some far explosions from misiles and a single tank driving in the streets (going over a car with an old man inside btw). But so far not any video of any infantry or tanks fighting or firing for what is a mass land attack from a huge army vs a decent one. Ukraine is supposed to have 900k military and a few thousand tanks that despite being totally surpassed by the Russians air forces and misiles, should give a good fight initially at least. I wonder where are them and where are these land fights taking place.

Did you see the video of the Russian tank on the road and a car was coming in the opposite direction and the tank swerved and drove over it?

See link for more info.

The Difference Between Ukraine and Taiwan – The Diplomat

I can find numerous similar analysis that will say Taiwan is more strategically important to US than Ukraine and US is more apt to defend it.

Can you provide links that provide analysis/prediction that US will NOT defend Taiwan if China invades? I would honestly be interested in reading them and understand the rationale.

Now if we are talking Trump winning in 2024, all bets are off. But let's assume a "normal" US President.

I wonder if Ukrainians have deployed a bunch of IEDs? Worked pretty well against the US. At the very least, it would slow things down initially.

(Toss in some suicide bombers too for good measure)

FWIW, pretty sad that some of us here have been predicting Trump being a contender/winner in 2024 :(

Still time for Biden to turn it around though.

This ain't exactly a game of Command & Conquer.

Never played the game. None the less, the question still stands.

Point being, suggesting that they use some suicide bombers "for good measure" is more than a little callous to the real world situation.

It is callous. Nevertheless, it has shown to be an effective strategy at slowing down soldiers and hence the question.

Does the Ukraine have people who know how to make effective IEDs and do they have people willing to plant/detonate them?

Glad he's got a pick. Hope she sails through.

I posted about possible invasion in early Dec. So there was 2-3 months notice to acquire/build them. Wouldn't think it would be an issue to plant them. And detonation is remote.

I honestly don't know if they have IEDs or not, if they even considered them. But in retrospect, I'd think IEDs is a good counter to infantry & little less so armored vehicles.

I saw someone tweet using her last name except switched it to "Jackson Brown" and the resulting comments were fun.

If he really was the nominee, I'm assuming Daryl Hannah and Joni Mitchell would derail his nomination.

And Lindsey Graham slamming her, after he voted to confirm her to her last post, LOL, this guy.

I like how the official tweet from Biden uses tape from a previous confirmation of her with Paul Ryan saying nothing but very good things about her.

Regarding the response. Since Germany, which has the fourth-largest economy in the world and borders less than 500 miles from Ukraine, has vetoed stronger economic sanctions (particularly banning Russia from the SWIFT network), this relatively weak response isn't necessarily Biden's fault.

Germany and Italy have chosen access to Russia's gas and oil over showing strength (the electrical grid is inter-connected throughout Europe). The big question is what happens when a NATO country is attacked. If the response is similar, then the EU is in serious trouble.

But in the meantime, we should be doing everything possible to get back to energy independence. That might be the signal of strength Xi is looking for while he supports Putin.

When Newsmax is calling out Tucker...

Statement from right-wing network Newsmax: "Newsmax strongly opposes Putin, his unprovoked attack on a sovereign and democratic nation, and has strongly criticized Fox News’ top host Tucker Carlson for supporting Putin and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/YEtfYhc2ma

— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) February 25, 2022

Not necessarily a suicide bomber, but this is incredible sacrifice.

Vitaly Skakun is hailed as a hero after sacrificing his life to blow up the Henichesky Bridge.

The bridge was mined but a Russian column was advancing and there was no time to detonate it remotely.

Skakun radioed his unit and told them he would do it manually, saying goodbye. pic.twitter.com/6gqIFxlc01

— Visegrád 24 🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰 (@visegrad24) February 25, 2022

That really puts this in perspective. For Ukrainians, this is about survival as a people. They know what happened in Belarus.

I don't blame them for feeling abandoned by the world.

Meanwhile, though, there's hope...

Eurovision: Russia banned from competing at 2022 Song Contest

A dramatic reversal from the organizers of the Eurovision music competition. All will be well (heavy sarcasm on, in case that wasn't obvious).

No wonder the plan to sneak an engineer into Russia's Construction Yard and spam Tesla Coils failed.

Lots of social media outlets are warning about showing pictures of Ukrainian military in action, not wanting to give away troop positions. Sure, not many people listen to those sort of things, but it might be different when your country is on the line.

SI

Speaking of Belarus, didn't they allow Russian troops attack from Belarussian soil? Have there been any sanctions against them?

The main thing I've seen so far is a tank veering off-course to run over a civilian car. It looks like a Russian tank went out of its way to kill a civilian. But I've also seen reports that it was actually a Ukrainian vehicle that lost control. And, it appears (somehow) that the driver survived.

So, I don't know what we'd learn from video that could wind up being the exact opposite of what it appears to show.

The civilian was an old man. There's video of bystanders pulling the car apart by hand to get him out. The tank clearly turns to crush the car, imo.

Yes. Though the installed leader in Belarus (considered the only real dictator in Europe) is about as independent from Russia as Lambchop was independent from Shari Lewis.

Not only did they allow the strategic placement of Russian troops along their border with Ukraine, but there are significant allegations that Belarussian troops and vehicles are part of the invasion (Belarus denies this).

Yes, some sanctions include Belarus, though it's so dependent on Russia that it's of no real value.

This is part of why I don't even buy a tiny percentage of Putin's stated concern about Ukraine and NATO. He already completely controls a country that borders two Baltic NATO countries. And on the other side, Latvia and Estonia already border Russia and the odd little Kaliningrad nook borders Lithuania and Poland. There are no new threats from Ukraine.

So many people (and I'm certainly in this group) thought this was about the Russian-leaning Crimea/eastern provinces issue. But it's not. It seems more about Kyiv itself and installing a similar puppet to Lukashenko.

Twitter has cracked down on the open source intelligence framework that was posting a lot of information. Maybe that's a good thing - some misinformation there, and certainly the Russians were monitoring it for Ukrainian troop information as well as fighting to have Twitter crack down because the focus was clearly Russian positioning. Whether it was of value to the Ukrainian forces themselves I don't know. It's obvious that the first thing Russia did in the attack was hit military airports and communications systems (as well as eliminate Black Sea access).

There are sanctions on Belarus. There are also oligarchs in that country with close ties to the West. So like Russia, the sanctions are pretty tame and don't really go after anyone who has power.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is just an amazing man. He was a comedian that some how found himself president of a country after playing a comedian who some how found himself president on TV. Now be is standing defiant as his country is bring invaded by overwhelming force. He knows he is on the Russian hit list. He told European leaders in a meeting earlier today that this was likely the last time they will see him alive. Yet, he is not fleeing. He could be safely in exile, but he remains to most likely die. Incredible bravery and fortitude.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

So, did Xi really just wait to see how the Western world would react for a few days before calling Putin and telling him he should basically knock it off? Looking more and more like he just wanted to see if anybody would do anything.

I agree that Taiwan is more strategically important. The points made in the article about China being a bigger threat are quite true. But that's only part of it. The fact that China is a bigger threat also makes it that much harder to oppose them.

I have no links and am not really interested in looking for them - how likely prognosticators think it is that we would defend Taiwan militarily is not particularly interesting to me, and such writings tend to bogged down in irrelevancies. The only way we could even arguably do that is if we are willing to commit everything we have in our military to doing it. Right now as a complete abstraction the US public is split fairly evenly on the issue. If China seriously invaded, and we seriously tried to stop them, casualties would be extreme. To my mind it's simply highly self-evident that it would take less than two weeks of the resulting dead bodies piling up for the country to demand we pull out. I think as soon as it became clear to whoever was President at the time that China wasn't bluffing, we'd be gone.

Where Ukraine is relevant is the commitment that we and Europe have. What we're wiling to do about it. If we won't even commit our air force to help Ukraine, why would anyone think we're willing to put everything including boots on the ground in whatever numbers are required to help Taiwan? How do you sell that to the average American, when you know that a nuclear attack is just Xi waking up on the wrong side of the bed/getting the wrong advice from his advisors away?

Taiwan is quite a bit more important, but also orders of magnitude more dangerous. Far more dangerous than it is more important, in other words. And the world has consistently shown, whether it's North Korea, whether it's Iran, that we don't have teeth when it comes to facing down nuclear powers. They get what they want almost every time. Positive signs today that we may be moving somewhat in the right direction here, but I'll believe that we've got the required backbone when I see it.

Taiwan remains independent because of the One China policy. It's an odd arrangement, but one that seemingly gives the people of Taiwan a lot of confidence that this won't happen.

Compare that with our experiences in Cuba. Castro drove off the US-friendly government and established ties with Moscow. Kennedy hopelessly botched the Bay of Pigs invasion designed to get rid of Castro (definitely the low point of his short career). And then we left Cuba alone, not willing to engage the USSR in war.

Xi must be just about certain that the US will not back Taiwan militarily. I don't see how it's possible, given the location - to defend Taiwan from China would require defeating China. We didn't proceed with a less covert attack on Castro's Cuba because we were convinced the USSR would defend it and even if we won, which was likely, the cost would have been a full-scale nuclear war. Who wins that?

So Xi is trying to figure out what his real cost for taking Taiwan would be. He knows a little more now. Putin has been a useful idiot for him, but his utility is probably just about up.

But it's an odd situation with Xi, and I don't think we have any way of knowing how he'd feel about a war where China is the aggressor. Despite how atrociously they have treated the Uyghurs, the Chinese government seems reluctant to lose face over aggression - look how hard they try to erase the very history of Tiananmen Square. Xi might actually be content to continue the One China policy. I'm sure he gets a lot of personal satisfaction over the Olympics and Hollywood's capitulation (the John Cena apology, in Mandarin, must have been a career highlight for Xi - he probably replays it incessantly at personal family gatherings). Why risk that? On the other hand, taking Taiwan's tech industry would give China a lot of power.

The thing about being a communist country and not really giving a crap about individual human rights... he's right, we don't understand. But what China does understand is that while a nuclear war would devastate both countries - the targets would be the government and military centers. What would be left is people - and that means a lot less when you rule by force.

The more I think about it, the more I think China does not want to act right now. I could be wrong. Xi certainly wants things like a less stable dollar. But he may be very much against war, and his interests would be better served if everyone kept pretending Taiwan was part of China.

I think China is very patient. They can wait out the further decline of the United States.

Don't think there is any chance it would lead to military response. If the US is terrified of going after some Russian oligarchs because it'll mess with a few rich Americans, they sure as hell aren't torpedoing the economy over Taiwan. Russia slaps us around and we take it. Heck, even the Saudis have made us their bitch. They're royally screwing us over and we'll jump at the chance to sell them weapons so they can commit more genocide in Yemen.

I think we have a pretty good understanding of what it's like to live in a country that doesn't give a crap about human rights.