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JonInMiddleGA 08-25-2009 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 2102303)
Capps is such a pile of shit.


But he gets the W, while Lidge takes another loss.

ThunderingHERD 08-25-2009 09:18 PM

:lol: :lol: :lol: Brad Lidge :lol: :lol: :lol:

He's really being too explosively bad now, though. I was hoping he'd keep being just bad enough so that he doesn't get replaced.

samifan24 08-25-2009 09:21 PM

Greinke sets a new Royals record with 15 Ks tonight vs. the Tribe.

Swaggs 08-25-2009 09:24 PM

It's been a long time since I have had a favorite (active, at least) MLB player, but Andrew McCutchen is getting there.

He misjudged the flyball to allow the Phils to take the lead and then goes opposite field HR, with one of the fasted HR trots I have ever seen and an "Air Jordan-esque" crossing of the plate, for the win. At worst, he is the most impressive Pirate farmhand to come along since Aramis Ramirez.

k0ruptr 08-25-2009 09:29 PM

Greinke 15 ks through 8 tonight...

Edit: was 2 posts too late. but impressive by him none the less.

samifan24 08-25-2009 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs (Post 2102344)
It's been a long time since I have had a favorite (active, at least) MLB player, but Andrew McCutchen is getting there.

He misjudged the flyball to allow the Phils to take the lead and then goes opposite field HR, with one of the fasted HR trots I have ever seen and an "Air Jordan-esque" crossing of the plate, for the win. At worst, he is the most impressive Pirate farmhand to come along since Aramis Ramirez.


He's one of my favorite players already. He's a great player and you can see him make adjustments between ABs and during games. He's not only good but he's smart and learning all the time. His BA increases each time through the lineup vs. a starting pitcher and he is getting more comfortable on the basepaths. Starting next year the Buccos won't just have a token All-Star anymore.

Swaggs 08-25-2009 09:37 PM

I'm really interested to see if/how his body fills out since he is still pretty young. He looks like a pretty small guy, so I'm not sure if he is capable of adding much bulk, but if he can get a little stronger, he is going to be ridiculous.

As it is now, he looks like he can be a 20 HR/50 SB guy, along with being an elite defensive CF. At worst, I think he puts up Marquis Grissom-type numbers for the next 15-years (health permitting, of course).

miked 08-25-2009 09:46 PM

I can't imagine why they keep marching Lidge out there, he didn't even record an out tonight. I'd think even Moyer would be more successful.

sterlingice 08-25-2009 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 2101848)
I'm a Royals fan. I haven't seen a highlight in over two months.


You got your highlight tonight. As a friend of mine joked, he was trying to catch Verlander all in one game.

According to Schaum, Banny told him that Zack told the bullpen they wouldn't be needed before the game.

SI

Chief Rum 08-26-2009 12:41 AM

Frustrating night for the Halos. Several ways they could have won tonight. They just didn't execute when they needed to. Lackey seemed off (again!), and the Angels kept getting guys on base against the Tigers, and kept failing to get that one hit that would have got them a win (or at least tied).

It has been a bad stretch, losing five of six, and now the Rangers within four. The Angels need to pull out of this funk, and get back to playing their game.

Chief Rum 08-26-2009 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2102402)
You got your highlight tonight. As a friend of mine joked, he was trying to catch Verlander all in one game.

According to Schaum, Banny told him that Zack told the bullpen they wouldn't be needed before the game.

SI


They commented tonight on the local broadcast about Greinke taking the Royals' single game records for Ks tonight (15), and that he bought out Angels broadcaster Mark Gubizca (sp?) for the last mark (Gubie had 14). The other broadcasters were teasing Gubie for losing the record. ;)

DeToxRox 08-26-2009 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2102434)
Frustrating night for the Halos. Several ways they could have won tonight. They just didn't execute when they needed to. Lackey seemed off (again!), and the Angels kept getting guys on base against the Tigers, and kept failing to get that one hit that would have got them a win (or at least tied).

It has been a bad stretch, losing five of six, and now the Rangers within four. The Angels need to pull out of this funk, and get back to playing their game.


Love the fact we won but it was ugly. Tigs first series win on the road since June and they're 4.5 games up in first. That is how bad the AL Central is.

Miguel Cabrera is flat out mashing now though. I am biased but he should be the MVP if the Tigs make the playoffs and he keeps this up because he literally has had no protection in the lineup, and while his average with RISP has sucked, he's carried this offense on his back since the ASB.

Chief Rum 08-26-2009 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeToxRox (Post 2102436)
Love the fact we won but it was ugly. Tigs first series win on the road since June and they're 4.5 games up in first. That is how bad the AL Central is.

Miguel Cabrera is flat out mashing now though. I am biased but he should be the MVP if the Tigs make the playoffs and he keeps this up because he literally has had no protection in the lineup, and while his average with RISP has sucked, he's carried this offense on his back since the ASB.


Yup. Bugs the hell outta me that Lackey bothered to even give him a hittable pitch. Way to go, Big John. You're "earning" that big contract in the offseason now, aren't ya?

BishopMVP 08-26-2009 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak (Post 2101852)
Billy Wagner is a douchebag.

Agreed. Although Papelbon speaking out against the trade was also dumb - and Epstein's response was hilarious. "'I think Pap feels he was misunderstood,' Epstein said. 'He's not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with. When I talked to him directly about it he couldn't have been more excited.'"

I'd call that a backhanded compliment, but I'm not sure which part is the compliment.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs (Post 2102372)
As it is now, he looks like he can be a 20 HR/50 SB guy, along with being an elite defensive CF. At worst, I think he puts up Marquis Grissom-type numbers for the next 15-years (health permitting, of course).

Nothing like high expectations for a guy who's played 2 months. :) Seriously, we're projecting 15 years into the future now?
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2 (Post 2102028)
Logan, I would bet dollars to donuts the Mets get nobody.

Edit: Nobody, or organizational filler.

Rumor is Chris Carter (great AAA hitter, but he was traded from the NL and couldn't get time in Boston because he can't field anywhere - he's also on the 40-man and wouldn't pass thru waivers) and a GCL pitcher - Rivera and Mendez are the studs there, but hopefully aren't going.
Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2101814)
Err, what? Manny has a 152 OPS+ this year. Which is very impressive, but less than his OPS+ in 1996 with Boston and somewhat akin to his 1994 and 1995 in Boston, and, of course, a deal below his peak years in Cleveland and Boston. Wasn't the common Boston refrain that he got bored and wasn't trying... now he's just a "castoff"?

And Holliday started off really poorly this year in Oakland (sometimes it isn't all that easy to figure out a new league), but in the months before he was traded was massacring the ball. And Holliday's Batting Average for Balls in Play was insanely high right after he came over to St. Louis (for the entire month of July, which was split between Oakland and StL, it was .462).

The opinion on Manny was split between wasn't trying (by idiots - his OPS was ~1.000 the last 2 months in Boston) and age had begun to catch up to him (I saw some of this - which is why putting up OPS+'s over 200 in the NL until his suspension was surprising to me). And no, he was one of the very good players turning into superstars I talked about, not the castoffs like Smoltz and Lugo. I hadn't realized how poorly he's hit the last month+, bringing his OPS down to merely 5th in the league if he qualified.

Holliday I wouldn't say was massacring the ball for months before - he had an .814 OPS in June and was only about .950 in July before being traded - and as you pointed out, that includes whatever portion of the .462 BAbiP occurred before switching leagues.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 2102083)
...
counter-examples
...
ESPN is dominated by Boston/NY AL fans who love to make this argument. But the interleague play is tightening up, the NL is just as successful in the postseason and there are just as many players than struggle in the NL and thrive in the AL as vice versa. Pitching stats are always going to be better in the NL because there's no DH - but that doesn't stop ESPN for bashing the NL for the lower ERAs of Sabathia, Lee and others.

Yes, you bring up plenty of counter-examples (although it makes little sense to compare Manny age 37 to when he was in his prime and Jason Bay was injured in 2007 - he's about the most consistent year to year hitter in the majors) but your last paragraph also encapsulates my point. While I do think the AL is marginally better, and the East in particular the toughest division in baseball, it's probably overstated by most people. That's why Julio Lugo turning into an above-average hitter and Smoltz K'ing 9 in 5 shutout IP doesn't help the perception.

For my next lightning-rod statement, which young, hyped, rival AL East pitcher more desperately needs to go back to the bullpen - Joba or David Price? I'd love to say Joba to get Yankees fans heated, but at least he has a 3rd ML-average pitch, and they might just do it and become a harder team to beat in the postseason.

Ronnie Dobbs2 08-26-2009 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 2102450)
Rumor is Chris Carter (great AAA hitter, but he was traded from the NL and couldn't get time in Boston because he can't field anywhere - he's also on the 40-man and wouldn't pass thru waivers) and a GCL pitcher - Rivera and Mendez are the studs there, but hopefully aren't going.


Chris Carter is the definition of organizational filler. Plus, he's a DH. I've read the other player is not of significance.

Mizzou B-ball fan 08-26-2009 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2102402)
You got your highlight tonight. As a friend of mine joked, he was trying to catch Verlander all in one game.

According to Schaum, Banny told him that Zack told the bullpen they wouldn't be needed before the game.

SI


I'm a veteran when it comes to the reverse jinx. :)

That comment sounds like something Zack would say. I'm going to listen to the radio archive today since I didn't get to watch the game yesterday.

sterlingice 08-26-2009 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 2102450)
That's why Julio Lugo turning into an above-average hitter and Smoltz K'ing 9 in 5 shutout IP doesn't help the perception.


Aside from the obvious extremely small sample size explanation, Smoltz certainly wouldn't be the first time Duncan has made a mechanical tweak or two to drastically improve a pitcher's performance. And he's certainly done it with much worse pitchers

SI

ISiddiqui 08-26-2009 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 2102450)
The opinion on Manny was split between wasn't trying (by idiots - his OPS was ~1.000 the last 2 months in Boston) and age had begun to catch up to him (I saw some of this - which is why putting up OPS+'s over 200 in the NL until his suspension was surprising to me). And no, he was one of the very good players turning into superstars I talked about, not the castoffs like Smoltz and Lugo. I hadn't realized how poorly he's hit the last month+, bringing his OPS down to merely 5th in the league if he qualified.


If you look at Manny's numbers prior to suspension, his BABIP is ridiculous as well. It was .407 in April/May. And it isn't comparing him to his prime, btw. It's comparing Manny at 37 to Manny at 35.

As for Smoltz and Lugo, Smoltz has been covered. Dave Duncan is known as a miracle worker for a reason (and lets not forget that before the Red Sox picked him up, he was cut by the Braves, an NL squad, while working in the minors). As for Lugo, he had a great couple of weeks (if that), but is coming back down to Earth big time. OPS of .367 (yes, thats OPS, NOT OBP) in the last 14 days.

Quote:

For my next lightning-rod statement, which young, hyped, rival AL East pitcher more desperately needs to go back to the bullpen - Joba or David Price? I'd love to say Joba to get Yankees fans heated, but at least he has a 3rd ML-average pitch, and they might just do it and become a harder team to beat in the postseason.

Neither. Both bullpens are doing well.

Alan T 08-26-2009 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2102517)
(and lets not forget that before the Red Sox picked him up, he was cut by the Braves, an NL squad, while working in the minors).



THe Braves didn't cut him. They didn't offer him as much as the Red Sox in order to keep him. Instead they used the money on Derek Lowe.

Dr. Sak 08-26-2009 09:30 AM

It is apparent that Brad Lidge is the player on this year's team I want to hit with a crescent wrench. In years past those players were Tom Gordon, Jose Mesa, and Billy Wagner.

johnnyshaka 08-26-2009 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeVic (Post 2102019)
Thanks... must have missed that. Stopped paying attention once they started sucking.


'94 or '95??

MikeVic 08-26-2009 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka (Post 2102563)
'94 or '95??


LOL. Well, I try to follow every year until a point where I get sick of them. And that lasted almost to the All-Star break this year!

DeToxRox 08-26-2009 10:21 AM

So since I somewhat mentioned it a few posts back, here goes.

In the NL it seems like the two major awards, MVP and the Cy, are spoken for in Pujols and Lincecum.

In the AL it is far murkier. As of now Mauer is the front runner for AL MVP but Miguel Cabrera has to be right there, plus you'll have Morneau, Big Tex and others in the running.

As far as AL Cy Young goes, there is Grenike is might be the favorite right now, Halladay, Sabathia, Beckett, Verlander and even King Felix and Jared Weaver.

So who you have as the MVP/Cy come seasons end?

kingfc22 08-26-2009 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeToxRox (Post 2102587)
So since I somewhat mentioned it a few posts back, here goes.

In the NL it seems like the two major awards, MVP and the Cy, are spoken for in Pujols and Lincecum.


I wouldn't be so sure on Lincecum or Cain for that matter. They have only combined for 4 wins since the All-Star Break in 16 starts due to the lack of offense or bullpen failures during their starts. Compare that to 20 wins in their 36 starts prior to the break.

ISiddiqui 08-26-2009 10:44 AM

Hell, I could easily see Chris Carpenter taking the NL Cy Young. He's 14-3, leads the NL in ERA with 2.16 (and ERA+ - 194)

Arles 08-26-2009 10:56 AM

Pujols has MVP, but I agree on the pitcher question. Lincecum has a lot more Ks, but he has 2 fewer wins, double the walks and a higher ERA (2.43 to 2.16) than Carpenter. If SF doesn't make the postseason, I could see Carpenter or even Wainwright (15-9, 2.50 ERA) winning.

In the AL, it's between Mauer and Tex. Mauer has the stats, but Tex has the NY media. So, it's a wash at this point. But, if Tex ends with .290-40-120, I can't see him losing. CY Young is tough, but my gut says Greinke. He's just too good of a story and his numbers (197 Ks, 39 BB, 2.43 ERA) are so much better than everyone else - and he's only 2-3 behind in wins.

johnnyshaka 08-26-2009 11:31 AM

What if Cliff Lee keeps pitching like he has since the trade...does he get some votes for the NL Cy Young??

Dr. Sak 08-26-2009 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka (Post 2102636)
What if Cliff Lee keeps pitching like he has since the trade...does he get some votes for the NL Cy Young??


Good question...How did CC fair last year in the Cy Young count?

MikeVic 08-26-2009 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak (Post 2102648)
Good question...How did CC fair last year in the Cy Young count?


Apparently 5th... after your buddy Brad Lidge:
2008 Awards Voting - Baseball-Reference.com

Logan 08-26-2009 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 2102606)
In the AL, it's between Mauer and Tex. Mauer has the stats, but Tex has the NY media. So, it's a wash at this point. But, if Tex ends with .290-40-120, I can't see him losing.


There's a lot of local talk about Jeter having a shot at the MVP since he hasn't gotten one yet, which could definitely cut into that. Him and Teixera can split votes, and Mauer and Morneau can split. Should be interesting.

EagleFan 08-26-2009 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeVic (Post 2102653)
Apparently 5th... after your buddy Brad Lidge:
2008 Awards Voting - Baseball-Reference.com


I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that Lidge will not get a single vote this year...

BishopMVP 08-26-2009 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2 (Post 2102462)
Chris Carter is the definition of organizational filler. Plus, he's a DH. I've read the other player is not of significance.

True on Carter, although I do think he can hit at the major league level. As for the other player being described as "not of significance", I'm not saying he'll be good, but how many media people think anyone below AA is of significance?

molson 08-26-2009 04:36 PM

I feel kind of dirty brining up steroids, but kind of interesting story - the 9th circuit has ruled that federal investigators were wrong to seize "the list" of positive samples. So the list was returned. I'm not sure what good that does - but maybe this opens the doors for lawsuits by A-Rod, Ortiz, etc, who unquestionably were harmed as the result of this unlawful seizure.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4424048

miami_fan 08-26-2009 08:05 PM

Sounds like a case of it being better to ask for forgiveness than it is to ask for permission.

BishopMVP 08-26-2009 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2102517)
As for Smoltz and Lugo, Smoltz has been covered. Dave Duncan is known as a miracle worker for a reason

I just don;t see that much mechanical tinkering as the answer within 1 start - maybe if they caught him tipping pitches, but even then I just think facing the Padres was the biggest reason.
Quote:

Neither. Both bullpens are doing well.
Bullpens yes, but the 2 as starters no. WHIP's over 1.5, K/BB ratio's under 2 and averaging just over 5 IP each. And while the bullpens are doing fine for the regular season, Hughes/Joba/Rivera 7/8/9 in the playoffs scares me a lot more than Aceves or Coke or Bruney as the 3rd part - especially since I don't see Sabathia, Burnett or Pettite pitching well out of the bullpen.

Sox-wise, Tim Wakefield came back and gave a stellar performance tonight. That should really help things going forward.

Jas_lov 08-26-2009 08:34 PM

Pretty sure the plan is to have Joba start in the playoffs. Joba has been struggling lately on extra rest, but he's still way better than Mitre or Gaudin starting in the playoffs.

JonInMiddleGA 08-26-2009 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 2102933)
I just don;t see that much mechanical tinkering as the answer within 1 start - maybe if they caught him tipping pitches


Smoltz himself was quoted as saying that while he was back in Atlanta between teams (an unidentified) someone picked up on a bad habit he had picked up involving how he was positioning his foot on the rubber. In the context of the quote, I gathered that Duncan helped him fix that & some other minor things but what I took from the blurb was that a big part of his problem (or at least what he believes was a big part) was actually identified before he even left Atlanta to head to the midwest.

RedKingGold 08-26-2009 09:01 PM

You'll hear some in the media say that Hamels was great tonight. He wasn't necessarily at his 2008 post-season levels, but it was definitely a step in the right direction. Although the numbers were impressive, he did allow a few more base-runners and was in danger several times tonight. However, I will say that Hamel's performance as the game went on (aka more outs with fewer pitches) is an encouraging sign that he's on his way back.

To be honest, Hamel's struggles should have been more of a concern than the Phil's current closer fiasco. If Cole can start dealing again, we'll be fine come playoff time.

Dr. Sak 08-26-2009 09:16 PM

Again, Madson has a chance to make a case for him to be the closer, and he blows a save. Ugh!

sterlingice 08-26-2009 09:16 PM

From the boys over at Fangraphs

Zack Greinke Dazzles Once More | FanGraphs Baseball

Quote:

In a season of grand performances, Zack Greinke added one more to the portfolio with his outing last night. The line: 8 innings pitched, 5 hits allowed, 1 home run, 1 walk, and 15 strikeouts; with 11 swinging strikes coming on 117 pitches for a modest 9.4% whiffs.

It may not even be Grienke’s best performance of the season, as ridiculous as that sounds. if you use Bill James’ Game Score as a reasonable summarizing metric, then the start registers as a 78, good for the fifth best start on the year. Yes, fifth best. How many pitchers are capable of striking out 15 and walking one, and then having that be their fifth best start of their career, don’t even think about seasonal ranks.


That's just staggering

SI

Arles 08-26-2009 09:21 PM

It will be a travesty if he doesn't win the Cy Young.

BishopMVP 08-26-2009 09:33 PM

Bill James' game score is pretty poor imo. Zach Greinke is not.

sterlingice 08-26-2009 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 2102978)
It will be a travesty if he doesn't win the Cy Young.


You mean "when", I fear :(

I'm just waiting for Sabathia or Beckett to get to 20 wins with an ERA in the mid 3's and win because Zack ends up "only" 14-9 and 250 K's with a 2.40 ERA which could have been even lower if he played in front of a league average defense (Royals last in the league; alternatively, Lincecum and Cain play in front of the 2nd best).

SI

Atocep 08-26-2009 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2102985)
You mean "when", I fear :(

I'm just waiting for Sabathia or Beckett to get to 20 wins with an ERA in the mid 3's and win because Zack ends up "only" 14-9 and 250 K's with a 2.40 ERA which could have been even lower if he played in front of a league average defense (Royals last in the league; alternatively, Lincecum and Cain play in front of the 2nd best).

SI


And then to top it off Teixeira walks away with the MVP over Mauer.

samifan24 08-26-2009 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 2102978)
It will be a travesty if he doesn't win the Cy Young.


This. Greinke has been the best pitcher in the AL this season.

stevew 08-26-2009 10:51 PM

Freddy Sanchez to the DL. Looks like he isn't getting to that magical 600PA mark and triggering an 8M option.

And I wouldn't base anything off Cole looking good vs the Pirates. I guess it was better than his last start vs the Pirates(got roughed up IIRC)

Tonights just another in a long list of games the Pirates probably could have won. For a last placed team they've probably been okay for the majority of the year. Save a few ugly assed stretches.

Like the starters are much better than last year. I think for instance they cut down the walks by about one per game.

Crapshoot 08-26-2009 11:36 PM

Wow. Bruce Bochy (is there a stupider manager in baseball?) pinch hits for Ryan Garko (our "cleanup" hitter) with Bengie Molina (who's injured and can't run - more so than usual) in a 3-1 game with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th; and Bengie hits a 3 run HR. A clearly example of idiotic decision making with amazing results; I worry Buster Posey will be traded tomorrow.

Chief Rum 08-27-2009 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BishopMVP (Post 2102933)
I just don;t see that much mechanical tinkering as the answer within 1 start - maybe if they caught him tipping pitches, but even then I just think facing the Padres was the biggest reason.


Actually, Smoltz was on the Dan Patrick show, and that's exactly what he said the Cards coaches were pointing out to him, that he might have been tipping his pitches. They worked on it, and a mechanical issue, and he pinned as much on that as anything for his surprising turnaround in one game.

RedKingGold 08-27-2009 05:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 2103016)
Freddy Sanchez to the DL. Looks like he isn't getting to that magical 600PA mark and triggering an 8M option.

And I wouldn't base anything off Cole looking good vs the Pirates. I guess it was better than his last start vs the Pirates(got roughed up IIRC)

Tonights just another in a long list of games the Pirates probably could have won. For a last placed team they've probably been okay for the majority of the year. Save a few ugly assed stretches.

Like the starters are much better than last year. I think for instance they cut down the walks by about one per game.


Pirates have looked really good in this series. First time in a while I've seen them with really good talent. If that pitching remains strong and that outfield develops, they could contend as soon as next year.

JonInMiddleGA 08-27-2009 07:09 AM

Jerry Crasnick column on espn.com about the Royals dismal season.

Nothing groundbreaking in the column really, but this paragraph jumped at me.
Quote:

The Royals put too much faith in Kyle Davies based on a strong September last year. Sidney Ponson, Horacio Ramirez and Bruce Chen weren't the answer at the back of the rotation, and relievers Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz have a combined ERA of 6.07.

I know we joke about Dayton Moore collecting former Braves but every pitcher mentioned there except Ponson came through Atlanta at some point. I knew it was bad but damn.

sterlingice 08-27-2009 07:42 AM

There are a lot of observations about Dayton Moore collecting former Braves to the point where it looks more like a pattern than a joke.

SI

dawgfan 08-27-2009 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2103028)
Actually, Smoltz was on the Dan Patrick show, and that's exactly what he said the Cards coaches were pointing out to him, that he might have been tipping his pitches. They worked on it, and a mechanical issue, and he pinned as much on that as anything for his surprising turnaround in one game.

It was one game - let's not go crazy over thinking this. The reality is that Smoltz was pitching better than his ERA indicated in Boston, and the NL isn't quite as tough a league as the AL. By the end of the season we'll have a little more info on exactly what may or may not have changed with Smoltz since joining St. Louis (though to be clear, the sample size will still be quite small for the purposes of drawing meaningful conclusions).

I'm not going to dispute the idea that Smoltz may have been tipping his pitches or that he and Duncan made some tweaks to his mechanics, but people try way too hard to derive cause and effect from things that are most likely just random variation, or have some other more probable explanation.

Lathum 08-27-2009 03:53 PM

lol

I love Vin Scully.

He just pronounced Piscataway as piss-ca-tawn-ie

Chief Rum 08-27-2009 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan (Post 2103436)
It was one game - let's not go crazy over thinking this. The reality is that Smoltz was pitching better than his ERA indicated in Boston, and the NL isn't quite as tough a league as the AL. By the end of the season we'll have a little more info on exactly what may or may not have changed with Smoltz since joining St. Louis (though to be clear, the sample size will still be quite small for the purposes of drawing meaningful conclusions).

I'm not going to dispute the idea that Smoltz may have been tipping his pitches or that he and Duncan made some tweaks to his mechanics, but people try way too hard to derive cause and effect from things that are most likely just random variation, or have some other more probable explanation.


Don't freak out now. If you read my post, you'll see it was merely informational, providing what I heard on the radio show.

dawgfan 08-27-2009 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2103524)
Don't freak out now. If you read my post, you'll see it was merely informational, providing what I heard on the radio show.

Sorry, I didn't intend for the post to come across as specifically taking you to task. More of a generalized rant using the Smoltz situation as a specific example.

stevew 08-27-2009 08:13 PM

The NL ROY race should be interesting. Obviously I have a few dogs in the fight(McCutch and Garret Jones). You'd think J Happ probably wins though. But there are several other dudes who merit consideration.

stevew 08-27-2009 08:33 PM

Jones for the lead!

I expect Matt CollAPPSe to blow this.

EagleFan 08-27-2009 08:42 PM

Nice game by Happ tonight, except for that one pitch to Jones. The Phillies cost themselves that game by not being able to get runners in early in the game when they had a chance to open the game up.

EagleFan 08-27-2009 08:43 PM

Hated seeing the Phillies lose 2 of 3 but that was a pretty good series overall.

stevew 08-27-2009 08:59 PM

I was expecting Morton to get chased early. He's been ok this year but I'm doubting he ever really puts it together

But yeah. Really good games. Everything went down to the end.

RedKingGold 08-27-2009 09:24 PM

Geez, can't get out of PNC Park fast enough. Those Pirates are pretty fun to watch and I hope they can get this thing turned around next year or immediate future.

BishopMVP 08-28-2009 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2102985)
I'm just waiting for Sabathia or Beckett to get to 20 wins with an ERA in the mid 3's and win because Zack ends up "only" 14-9 and 250 K's with a 2.40 ERA which could have been even lower if he played in front of a league average defense (Royals last in the league; alternatively, Lincecum and Cain play in front of the 2nd best).

Arguably the 2 most surprising teams this year - the Mariners and Giants. Top 2 teams in UZR - same 2 teams.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2103028)
Actually, Smoltz was on the Dan Patrick show, and that's exactly what he said the Cards coaches were pointing out to him, that he might have been tipping his pitches. They worked on it, and a mechanical issue, and he pinned as much on that as anything for his surprising turnaround in one game.

For all the things the Red Sox are supposedly better than other teams at when it comes to pitchers (the shoulder strengthening program is one example) there could be some truth to them being bad at it. I have a friend who was able to call out most of Buchholz's pitches a couple starts ago. Personally I can't tell beyond when Varitek stands for every high fastball, but if a random friend can pick it up you'd think the Sox pitching coaches would.


Fantasy-advice for the stretch run - just pick up Brad Penny now. Assuming he ends up in the NL, and we might have made him agree to it as part of his release, he's probably good for a sub-4.00 ERA.

Dr. Sak 08-28-2009 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedKingGold (Post 2103593)
Geez, can't get out of PNC Park fast enough. Those Pirates are pretty fun to watch and I hope they can get this thing turned around next year or immediate future.


I went to the game last night...and once again did not see the Phils won. The last time I was at a game in Pittsburgh where the Phillies beat the Pirates...Robert Person pitched for the Phillies.

Mizzou B-ball fan 08-28-2009 07:52 AM

Royals got 4 homeruns in a game for the first time in nearly 2 1/2 seasons. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long for the next 4 homerun game, but I won't be holding my breath.

samifan24 08-28-2009 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak (Post 2103739)
I went to the game last night...and once again did not see the Phils won. The last time I was at a game in Pittsburgh where the Phillies beat the Pirates...Robert Person pitched for the Phillies.


Remember the game where Robert Person hit two home runs, including a grand slam, in the same game for the Phillies?

sterlingice 08-28-2009 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 2103747)
Royals got 4 homeruns in a game for the first time in nearly 2 1/2 seasons. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long for the next 4 homerun game, but I won't be holding my breath.


Unfortunately, not much on the roster that leads me to believe 4 homer games are going to start being common all of a sudden

SI

Mizzou B-ball fan 08-28-2009 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2103972)
Unfortunately, not much on the roster that leads me to believe 4 homer games are going to start being common all of a sudden

SI


Yeah, the only thing more shocking than the 4 homeruns was that you likely wouldn't have been able to guess the majority of the players that were involved. No Butler, Teahan, Jacobs, or Guillen.

lordscarlet 08-28-2009 12:49 PM

NOOOOOO!

Nyjer Morgan is gone for the season. I think he is a large factor in the turn-around for the Nationals. Thankfully it isn't an 18 month ordeal like Jordan Zimmermann.

Mizzou B-ball fan 08-28-2009 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordscarlet (Post 2104083)
NOOOOOO!

Nyjer Morgan is gone for the season. I think he is a large factor in the turn-around for the Nationals. Thankfully it isn't an 18 month ordeal like Jordan Zimmermann.


Crap. This presents a challenge to the Royals' run at the number 1 pick in next year's draft.

lordscarlet 08-28-2009 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 2104084)
Crap. This presents a challenge to the Royals' run at the number 1 pick in next year's draft.


I haven't seen the lineups yet, but it looks like Willie Harris will be playing CF. I assume they're putting him in the leadoff spot as well, but perhaps they'll try someone else (Dukes? Guzman? Someone not currently on the 25 man roster?)

Ronnie Dobbs2 08-28-2009 03:04 PM

Angels close to deal for Kazmir | angelsbaseball.com: News

Quote:

The Rays will get pitcher Alexander Torres and third baseman Matthew Sweeney in return in the deal, which is expected to be announced later today.

Don't know either of the prospects, but I'm a little surprised Kazmir is gone.

sterlingice 08-28-2009 03:13 PM

Wow- that's quite a fall. What has happened to Kazmir? Went from being one of the best young pitchers in the game to sliding through waivers for a trade.

And how the heck did KC or any number of other teams not put in a waiver claim for him? Then again, I guess he did sign a long term deal last year, I think.

SI

Ronnie Dobbs2 08-28-2009 03:16 PM

Quote:

signed extension with Tampa Bay 5/14/08
09:$6M, 10:$8M, 11:$12M, 12:$13.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)
$0.8M bonus if traded (for first trade only)


I have read speculation that Tampa needs to reign in spending, which is kind of crazy. He's also not looked very good since the first half of '08, so I guess combining the money with the question marks means he's shipped out.

stevew 08-28-2009 03:20 PM

Sad to see Tony Plush get hurt. He's one of the guys who I wouldn't mind seeing have a few big paydays(4-5m per) before he retires.

stevew 08-28-2009 03:21 PM

dola-

The Mets should have gotten Kazmir back so we can quit hearing all the whine about that stupid trade they made involving him 5-6 years ago.

stevew 08-28-2009 03:23 PM

I don't get the methodology, but how is Morgan worth 21.4m in WAR dollars? Isn't the defense quotient in the formula a bit extreme there?

Atocep 08-28-2009 03:24 PM

The reason the Mets traded Kazmir in the first place was he wouldn't listen to anyone that offered him help and there were some doubts as to whether or not he could hold up as a starter. He has mechanical issues that Rick Peterson was trying to fix and judging from the number of trips to the DL he's made I doubt anyone has been able to get him to make any adjustments. The Mets made a stupid trade, but it does appear their reasons for shipping him out were very valid.

Kazmir is a guy that the light could come on and he'll go on to win a Cy Young and be the legit ace he appeared to be 5 years ago. Then again, he could end up being a combination of Rich Harden and Oliver Perez the rest of his career and not be reliable enough to pencil him in as anything more than your #3 or #4 starter.

I'm surprised he no one before the Angels claimed him and I'm surprised the Rays couldn't get more for him, but that really makes me wonder if there's something really wrong with him and everyone knows it.

Sublime 2 08-28-2009 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2 (Post 2104207)
Angels close to deal for Kazmir | angelsbaseball.com: News



Don't know either of the prospects, but I'm a little surprised Kazmir is gone.


WOW, totally did not see that happening. Haven't paid enough attention to him (or the Rays for that matter), but I always pictured him as the big-time ace down there.

Chief Rum 08-28-2009 04:43 PM

Not sure what to make of this yet.

MLB.com backed off of their report, said the deal has fallen through (per MLBtraderumors.com). That's followed 10 minutes later from Sherman with the NY Post, saying "The deal is done."

I am confused.

I guess I'll just wait until the Angels say something (FWIW, local radio said they heard from Angels sources off the record that called the deal done).

JetsIn06 08-28-2009 06:10 PM

Looks like the deal will be announced within the hour.

I have mixed feelings about the deal. Scott Kazmir has pitched like absolute shit a lot of this year, but he's had some good outings lately.

However, the money that he was owed will hopefully go towards re-signing Crawford or Bartlett (Crawford has a $10mil option for next year, Bartlett I *believe* has two years of arb left but I'm not entirely sure.)

The real thing that makes me feel okay about this deal: Wade Davis. This guy appears to be ready for the big leagues.

2009 StatsGW-LERAIPHBBKSVWHIP
DUR (tb)AAA249-73.391381255612501.31

JPhillips 08-28-2009 06:17 PM

Carl Crawford isn't worth anything close to 10 mil. The Rays would be better off getting a cheaper replacement and using the savings to bolster the rest of the outfield.

Chief Rum 08-28-2009 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06 (Post 2104327)
Looks like the deal will be announced within the hour.

I have mixed feelings about the deal. Scott Kazmir has pitched like absolute shit a lot of this year, but he's had some good outings lately.

However, the money that he was owed will hopefully go towards re-signing Crawford or Bartlett (Crawford has a $10mil option for next year, Bartlett I *believe* has two years of arb left but I'm not entirely sure.)

The real thing that makes me feel okay about this deal: Wade Davis. This guy appears to be ready for the big leagues.

2009 StatsGW-LERAIPHBBKSVWHIP
DUR (tb)AAA249-73.391381255612501.31


Yeah, I think this deal can work out for both sides.

Kazmir has been pitching better lately, and has improved his overall ERA around 2 runs since his bad start. Plus, prior to this season, the guy was ace material, he's just 25, he's locked up for two more years (and I hear a team option for 2012, too), and it sounds like from some of the comments here, that maybe this is a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

For the price the Angels paid and the fact they can take on that salary, this is a good risk for them, IMO.

Meanwhile, as you say, if this means the Rays can re-up Crawford and Bartlett (and Shields? Is he signed up yet?) and Davis seems like another in a long line of terrific Rays pitching prospects, then the Rays are probably no worse off.

The question will be if Davis can step in and perform right away, because if he struggles early and the Rays just miss out of the playoffs, I can see a lot of grumbling, both in the stands and in the clubhouse, coming from this move.

Chief Rum 08-28-2009 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2104329)
Carl Crawford isn't worth anything close to 10 mil. The Rays would be better off getting a cheaper replacement and using the savings to bolster the rest of the outfield.


Interesting you mention that, because a similar sorta player in Figgy is also an impending FA, and $10 M has been bandied about. It's one of the big questions facing the Angels, whether they are going to re-up him or not.

$10 M sounds like nutty money to give a leadoff guy (not named Ichiro or Ricky Henderson, that is), but Figgy has been having a phenomenal season, and has actually been pretty good overall for some time now.

JPhillips 08-28-2009 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2104335)
Interesting you mention that, because a similar sorta player in Figgy is also an impending FA, and $10 M has been bandied about. It's one of the big questions facing the Angels, whether they are going to re-up him or not.

$10 M sounds like nutty money to give a leadoff guy (not named Ichiro or Ricky Henderson, that is), but Figgy has been having a phenomenal season, and has actually been pretty good overall for some time now.


I wouldn't pay Figgins that much, but at least with the Angels that 10 mil wouldn't limit other options.

JetsIn06 08-28-2009 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2104332)
Yeah, I think this deal can work out for both sides.

Kazmir has been pitching better lately, and has improved his overall ERA around 2 runs since his bad start. Plus, prior to this season, the guy was ace material, he's just 25, he's locked up for two more years (and I hear a team option for 2012, too), and it sounds like from some of the comments here, that maybe this is a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

For the price the Angels paid and the fact they can take on that salary, this is a good risk for them, IMO.

Meanwhile, as you say, if this means the Rays can re-up Crawford and Bartlett (and Shields? Is he signed up yet?) and Davis seems like another in a long line of terrific Rays pitching prospects, then the Rays are probably no worse off.

The question will be if Davis can step in and perform right away, because if he struggles early and the Rays just miss out of the playoffs, I can see a lot of grumbling, both in the stands and in the clubhouse, coming from this move.


Yep, you're right. Shields is pretty much locked up. (4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options)

I believe Kazmir will succeed. But the Rays have a ton of pitching depth in the minors and hopefully a little shakeup is what they needed.

Chief Rum 08-28-2009 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2104337)
I wouldn't pay Figgins that much, but at least with the Angels that 10 mil wouldn't limit other options.


Yeah, that seems like a lot. Not sure the Angels will pay it, either. But it's possible, if what I heard today is true, and that's that Lackey has "delusions of grandeur" that are leading him to seek a deal like Sabathia got last year. If that's true, he won't be back with the Angels next season. So that means a quite a bit of cash left over to bring back the other free agents they want to bring back, like Figgy and Abreu (and maybe Vlad, if his latest good run is an indication of a return to normalcy for him).

sterlingice 08-28-2009 07:04 PM

It just seems like the Rays could have gotten more for Kazmir in the offseason and doesn't this disrupt their rotation, trying to get in the playoffs this year?

SI

ISiddiqui 08-29-2009 01:43 AM

To be honest, Kazmir has been pretty crappy for the Rays rotation... and with the emergence of Niemann, somewhat expendable. This will give Wade Davis a chance as well.

stevew 08-29-2009 01:49 AM

The Rays also have jeremy hellickson who's been tearing shit up in the minors this year. WHIP under 1.00 in AA/AAA and more than a K/IP. He's probably not ready yet, but it wouldn't be a shock if they snuck him onto their playoff roster. Of course if they make it.

BishopMVP 08-30-2009 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew (Post 2104219)
I don't get the methodology, but how is Morgan worth 21.4m in WAR dollars? Isn't the defense quotient in the formula a bit extreme there?

Admittedly I haven't actually seen Morgan play, but I refuse to believe he's really that much better defensively than every other player in the league. Even with the sample size issues (outfielders usually fluctuate and are best averaged over a 2-3 year period - look at Jacoby Ellsbury going from +16.5 last year to -13.7 this year) it seems unbelievable that Nyjer Morgan is worth more than Miggy Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis or Ichiro.

sterlingice 08-30-2009 12:10 PM

I think WAR and player value is badly skewed. There's way too much emphasis on defense and it doesn't take into account which skills are more valuable. I can find dozens (ok, some hyperbole) of great fielding CFs who are comparable to Morgan in AAA teams all across the country but if they can't hit at even a minimal MLB level, you can't afford to put them in the lineup. While defense is valuable, it is an easier commodity to obtain than hitting for average or, especially, hitting for power and that rarity is not at all reflected in the highly flawed fangraph valuations that I see more and more quoted without context

SI

dawgfan 08-30-2009 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2105127)
I think WAR and player value is badly skewed. There's way too much emphasis on defense and it doesn't take into account which skills are more valuable. I can find dozens (ok, some hyperbole) of great fielding CFs who are comparable to Morgan in AAA teams all across the country but if they can't hit at even a minimal MLB level, you can't afford to put them in the lineup. While defense is valuable, it is an easier commodity to obtain than hitting for average or, especially, hitting for power and that rarity is not at all reflected in the highly flawed fangraph valuations that I see more and more quoted without context

SI

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?

sterlingice 08-30-2009 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan (Post 2105178)
Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?


I thought the limitations of UZR have been reasonably well documented. The radical swings on a substantial number of players from one year to the next should at least give some people pause. They claim to think a whole season is a fair sample size, but then why do guys go from +10 to -10 to +10 and vice versa regularly? It's like saying batting average is representative over one season when it's clearly been shown that there are numbers underneath the numbers (BABIP, ISO, etc) at work here.

Not only that, but the argument I gave above was talking about using WAR, of which UZR is a big component, where it doesn't take into account the scarcity of some hitting tools when making "salary" valuations.

SI

kingfc22 08-30-2009 05:56 PM

Renteria with a huge grand slam. Reminded me of Brian Johnson vs the Dodgers. Affeldt gets out if a tough jam as well in the 8th.

Come on sweep!!!

BishopMVP 08-30-2009 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan (Post 2105178)
Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that FanGraphs valuations of defense are so flawed? Do you have some data to back that up, or is it simply perception on your part?

The OF fluctuations are the most prominent issue (well other than not attempting to measure catchers), and I think they highlight the underlying issue with UZR. There's more to defense than merely where outs are recorded - taking an angle on the ball, hitting the cut-off man and turning an extra-base hit into a single counts for something, having a strong arm so players don't run on you counts, and park dimensions like Fenway's left field matter (I'm not saying Manny or Jason Bay are good fielders, but it doesn't look good when a 320 foot pop fly hits the monster and "falls in" for a hit). It seems like to compensate for the lack of chances compared to middle infielders (where I think UZR works well) they magnify the worth of each play in the outfield and it can lead to some wild swings. Two examples - Nyjer Morgan is a very good defender and may deserve a gold glove, but there's no way his defense is 50% greater against replacement level than any other OF'er in the league. Conversely, Jacoby Ellsbury has a weak arm and doesn't get great reads on balls, but he's not in the bottom 10% of OF'ers behind guys like Cody Ross, Jack Cust and Ryan Braun.
Quote:

Joba rules
35 pitch limits? I guess it doesn't matter when you're getting 1-hitters from Sergio Mitre and rosters expand so soon, but I don't see why you wouldn't piggyback him at this point instead of using 5 relievers.

dawgfan 08-30-2009 06:29 PM

OK, let me rephrase here. I totally get that the current defensive metrics are far from perfect, and that one needs to look at a multiple season range and across multiple metrics to get some firm idea of where a player is defensively. So yeah, in the sense that FanGraphs uses UZR and makes valuation calculations for players utilizing UZR numbers for a particular season, I can see the skepticism.

What I'm questioning here is the sense I'm getting from some that they think that defense is now being overvalued by some in the sabermetric community, that there's no way player X's defense is so good as to overcome his middling bat, or player Y's defense is so bad as to mitigate his great bat, etc.

The blogosphere for the M's includes smart guys like Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan and Matthew Carruth. I'm used to seeing discussions of player value and defense defined in such terms as a range, such as somewhere between +5 to +15 runs added per year. They'll look at the various defensive metrics for a player, look at them over multiple seasons and extrapolate a likely range of actual value defensively for a player.

I guess I place a fair amount of trust in the math these guys use (or rely) on to believe them when they say a really, really good defensive player could be saving 25 runs in a season.

And if someone has the math skills to show that they are over valuing the effect of good defense, I'd love to see it.

sooner333 08-30-2009 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22 (Post 2105229)
Renteria with a huge grand slam. Reminded me of Brian Johnson vs the Dodgers. Affeldt gets out if a tough jam as well in the 8th.

Come on sweep!!!


Honestly, Brian Johnson was the first thing I thought of after my fist pump. Unfortunately, unlike the Brian Johnson game which I was watching live, I was only listening to a streaming broadcast of this game. But it was still awesome. I'm waiting until a month out from the end of the regular season to buy my one month of MLB.tv for the stretch.

Mizzou B-ball fan 08-30-2009 07:40 PM

Greinke is honestly just ridiculous. Follows up a complete game (15 K's out of 24 outs) with a complete game 1-hitter against Seattle. Current ERA is 2.32.

sterlingice 08-30-2009 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 2105266)
Greinke is honestly just ridiculous. Follows up a complete game (15 K's against 24 batters) with a complete game 1-hitter against Seattle. Current ERA is 2.32.


And it was weird- he didn't have any K's until the 2nd out in the 6th and ended with 5.

SI

larrymcg421 08-30-2009 08:29 PM

Joe Morgan has spent much of tonight's broadcast of the Phillies-Braves game explaining why strikeouts aren't that bad.


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