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Brian Swartz 02-11-2022 07:22 PM

I think it makes sense for government to invest up to the point of proving the technology, but I agree that the infrastructure isn't the government's job (except for things like rest stops). We're either going to be propping up something that isn't viable, or doing private industry's job for them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight
I've heard of a system where the batteries are charged and waiting for you, and instead of charging your car, you swap out the battery. That would be able to handle a massive load. But you need to commit to that model and build the whole system around it. And it does not sound like we are going that way.


I like that idea in theory, agree that we aren't going that way. I'm moderately well-informed on EVs but I haven't seen anything specific here - do you know what the timeframe/cost is on the battery changes? I'm guessing one possible reason is that charging is expected to get to a point where it's similar or better.

NobodyHere 02-11-2022 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3359819)
I like that idea in theory, agree that we aren't going that way. I'm moderately well-informed on EVs but I haven't seen anything specific here - do you know what the timeframe/cost is on the battery changes? I'm guessing one possible reason is that charging is expected to get to a point where it's similar or better.


The Chinese company Nio does battery swaps and they claim it takes about 3 minutes.

Nio Is on a Battery Swap Station Building Spree

Brian Swartz 02-12-2022 12:50 AM

Thanks for the link. Based on that, I'd agree then that we're probably taking the wrong approach.

miked 02-12-2022 07:52 AM

The issue is likely also that batteries are proprietary. So my ID.4 uses a different battery than a Tesla, so getting places to stock up on every possible model battery is likely not feasible.

Edward64 02-12-2022 10:48 AM

I think Biden is going to have to propose Michelle Childs as his SCOTUS nominee regardless of what progressives want. He owes his miraculous comeback and win to Clyburn and SC, so this is a good payback for the loyalty.

Left splits over Supreme Court pick pushed by top Biden ally - POLITICO
Quote:

After Sherrod Brown caught wind of the progressive angst over judge Michelle Childs’ possible ascension to the Supreme Court, the labor stalwart talked it through with her biggest Democratic backer — the House majority whip.

And the Ohio Democratic senator walked away satisfied from his conversation with Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), who’s stumping hard for his home-state judge to join the high court.
:
Brown’s support is a huge shot in the arm for Childs, who’s facing grumbles on the left over her past work as a lawyer on behalf of corporations. She is already President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court contender with the highest ceiling for GOP support, as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) pushes strongly for her alongside Clyburn, the No. 3 House Democratic leader.
:
While most progressive lawmakers aren’t directly criticizing Childs for her past work, they are making it clear that the balance of power between corporations and the average American worker could prove their litmus test for Biden’s nominee. And on paper, it may be that Childs has the most work to do to meet that test.

Thomkal 02-12-2022 01:02 PM

Edit: Because I didn't read the full blurb and missed the Lindsay Graham part :)

RainMaker 02-12-2022 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3359819)
I think it makes sense for government to invest up to the point of proving the technology, but I agree that the infrastructure isn't the government's job (except for things like rest stops). We're either going to be propping up something that isn't viable, or doing private industry's job for them.


I think the issue with electric vehicle infrastructure is who is paying for it. Right now, gasoline tax helps fund the infrastructure of our roads. It makes sense too as the more you drive, the more you should have to pay for the upkeep.

Now I think the current structure is fine and we should provide a financial benefit for electric vehicles who are not polluting the air. But this seems to be crossing a line into flat out building infrastructure for a particular business (or industry) that has benefited a great deal already from taxpayer subsidies.

RainMaker 02-12-2022 06:25 PM

Childs makes sense. Biden pays back Clyburn for his help. Clyburn pays back big business for all the contributions. Biden continues to torpedo his favorability.

Looking at Childs background, I will say I'd be happy to see someone come from outside the standard schools and paths to the SC. Wouldn't she be the first person in like 50 years to come from a public university?

Edward64 02-12-2022 10:46 PM

Yup, Fri stock market was going along okay and then it went south. Oil predicted to go up $100+ per barrel if there is an invasion.

I don't know what Biden is doing. Why warn about a pending Russian invasion (seemingly) every day for the past week. If Russia wants to invade, she won't stop the invasion because its no longer a secret. Especially since Putin knows NATO won't put boots on the ground.

Biden, Macron etc. talking to Putin is the way to stop this. My guess is Putin won't invade right away. He has time and can wait it out. But Putin holds the cards (including gas pipeline for Germany) and wouldn't be surprised if he acted - maybe not a full invasion but a select area like he did with Crimea.

What a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for markets as Biden warns Putin of 'severe costs' - MarketWatch
Quote:

The spark came as Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned Friday afternoon that Russia could attack Ukraine “any day now,” with Russia’s military prepared to begin an invasion if ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

U.S. stocks extended a selloff to end sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.43% dropping more than 500 points and the S&P 500 SPX, -1.90% sinking 1.9%; oil futures CL.1, +0.86% surged to a seven-year high that has crude within hailing distance of $100 a barrel; and a round of buying interest in traditional safe-haven assets pulled down Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.943% while lifting gold GC00, +1.00%, the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.50% and the Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.01%.

stevew 02-12-2022 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miked (Post 3359830)
The issue is likely also that batteries are proprietary. So my ID.4 uses a different battery than a Tesla, so getting places to stock up on every possible model battery is likely not feasible.


just dropping the Tesla battery enclosure and replacing it with a fully charged replacement one would take a helluva lot longer than just turbo charging. There's a bunch of screws and cooling lines and power lines that would need to be swapped. It's a very heavy unit.

albionmoonlight 02-14-2022 08:54 AM

It is a difficult dance to do re: EV infrastructure.

On the one hand, EVs are good policy. And the government has given, is giving, and will continue to give fossil fuels subsidies, so I do think that there is a role for government in priming the EV pump to eventually let the market take over.

But when you are investing massive public money into an area, you are necessarily picking winners and losers. If we build a lot of a certain type of infrastructure, then we are choosing not to build others. And what if we are 18 months away from a total game changing technology that will never get invented b/c we've already decided to go with the mousetraps we have?

The market is almost always better at figuring these things out than the central planners.

Edward64 02-14-2022 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3360089)
It is a difficult dance to do re: EV infrastructure.

On the one hand, EVs are good policy. And the government has given, is giving, and will continue to give fossil fuels subsidies, so I do think that there is a role for government in priming the EV pump to eventually let the market take over.

But when you are investing massive public money into an area, you are necessarily picking winners and losers. If we build a lot of a certain type of infrastructure, then we are choosing not to build others. And what if we are 18 months away from a total game changing technology that will never get invented b/c we've already decided to go with the mousetraps we have?

The market is almost always better at figuring these things out than the central planners.


I do agree with you in general but do think the market has already decided EV is the way to go (all car companies are moving in that direction).

However, which battery technology to standardized on (Tesla, Nio etc.) is still in question. I do think government has a role to help "incubate" and make and select e.g. create the charging stations infrastructure nationwide. The other stuff like replaceable batteries, let capitalism decide.

Brian Swartz 02-14-2022 12:27 PM

Why would the government invest in charging stations and not in replacement ones though? That just doesn't make sense to me. I just think we're past the point where governmental funding is useful, and into the stage where it'll do more harm than good. As said before, the market is already clearly shifting to EVs. It's time to let them take over.

I agree with the earlier point about replacing being problematic due to different batteries, that makes a lot of sense.

AlexB 02-14-2022 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miked (Post 3359830)
The issue is likely also that batteries are proprietary. So my ID.4 uses a different battery than a Tesla, so getting places to stock up on every possible model battery is likely not feasible.


My brother’s got an i-Pace, and I’m pretty sure that has been pre-fitted with a removable tray that can house a battery in anticipation that recharging might be replaced with just swapping batteries.

RainMaker 02-14-2022 01:44 PM

I don't understand the desire for swapping batteries. It really doesn't take that long to charge up a battery. Tesla can charge you up for 200 miles in 15 minutes. That technology will only improve with time.

And how often are you in a situation where that becomes a concern? Most people do a long road trip a couple times a year. And you're looking at a 15 minutes stop at a charging station instead of a 5-10 minute stop at a gas station.

Just seems like an issue with minimal impact on a tiny portion of users.

AlexB 02-14-2022 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3360127)
I don't understand the desire for swapping batteries. It really doesn't take that long to charge up a battery. Tesla can charge you up for 200 miles in 15 minutes. That technology will only improve with time.

And how often are you in a situation where that becomes a concern? Most people do a long road trip a couple times a year. And you're looking at a 15 minutes stop at a charging station instead of a 5-10 minute stop at a gas station.

Just seems like an issue with minimal impact on a tiny portion of users.


A lot of people drive beyond the current range of EVs every day/multiple times per week as part of their jobs, myself included.

I went PHEV rather than full EV last autumn due to the current ranges, recharging issue & lack of infrastructure

If even one of these things had been better I would have gone full EV, but it’s a year or two too early here for an EV if you’re regularly doing 300+ miles a day

Edward64 02-14-2022 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3360118)
Why would the government invest in charging stations and not in replacement ones though? That just doesn't make sense to me. I just think we're past the point where governmental funding is useful, and into the stage where it'll do more harm than good. As said before, the market is already clearly shifting to EVs. It's time to let them take over.

I agree with the earlier point about replacing being problematic due to different batteries, that makes a lot of sense.


My rationale is chargers (and therefore stations) are fairly standardize. Tesla may need a different plug-in than another EV brand but fairly easy to create multiple plug-ins or adapters for the plug-ins to accommodate different EVs.

Batteries (and hence replacement batteries) are not as standard, heavy, and has logistical issue of keeping stocked in charging/swapping stations.

I'm thinking we still need to incubate EVs for now because this will increase acceptance and it'll happen quicker. There will likely be resistance from big oil companies to prevent or slow things down. We'll get there eventually but I want it sooner rather than later.

Build the nationwide charging stations or incent private enterprise to build them. Hey private Quick Trip-and-like owner to build X chargers and we'll give you a tax deduction/credit. Or a Walmart or fast food off an interstate exit etc.

We are talking $5B here. Chump change all things considered out of a $1.2T infrastructure bill.

Edward64 02-14-2022 03:21 PM

Talking about charging stations ... if we get cars that can go 600 miles per charge, that prob means less interstate charging stations are needed. If true, a game changer IMO. And makes me ask how Tesla fell so far behind.

We were driving to see in-laws 1-2 times a year when kids were young. That was 400 miles one way. So this would certainly eliminate my range anxiety.

Quote:

WeLion is said to be NIO's mystery solid-state battery supplier that will churn out the 150kWh units for the top NIO ET5 and ET7 performance electric sedans that allows them to cover the promised 626-mile (1000km) or longer range. Deliveries of the NIO ET7 model with 600+ miles of range on a charge are expected to start in Q4, so WeLion's new battery factory is a timely investment.

RainMaker 02-14-2022 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3360141)
We are talking $5B here. Chump change all things considered out of a $1.2T infrastructure bill.


Tesla has a market cap of nearly $1 trillion. I feel like they can cover the cost for their own product.

Brian Swartz 02-15-2022 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
I'm thinking we still need to incubate EVs for now because this will increase acceptance and it'll happen quicker.


Or we'll back the wrong horse so to speak and make it take longer. Which is why I support letting the market do it. If they need to take over eventually, they need to take over as soon as possible - I think continued government involvement delays that, which means an increased chance of greater 'growing pains' being required by the market switching directions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64
We are talking $5B here. Chump change all things considered out of a $1.2T infrastructure bill.


The amount of money is not a concern to me.

I don't think it does any good to rush the building of infrastructure. Even if we had enough infrastructure tomorrow I don't think it moves the needle much. EV acceptance requires them trickling down through many years to used-car market, public attitudes changing over time, etc. I.e. the law of diffusion of innovation. There are some things you can rush. You can rush-build a skyscraper or a restaurant. For better or worse, you can't really do that very effectively with consumer behavior.

RainMaker 02-15-2022 05:38 PM

Sell them a ton of high-tech military equipment so they can slaughter innocent civilians and this is how they repay you. Biden might be worse than Trump at negotiating.

Saudi Arabia Rejects Biden Plea to Increase Oil Production as Midterms Loom

PilotMan 02-15-2022 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3360179)
Or we'll back the wrong horse so to speak and make it take longer. Which is why I support letting the market do it. If they need to take over eventually, they need to take over as soon as possible - I think continued government involvement delays that, which means an increased chance of greater 'growing pains' being required by the market switching directions.



The amount of money is not a concern to me.

I don't think it does any good to rush the building of infrastructure. Even if we had enough infrastructure tomorrow I don't think it moves the needle much. EV acceptance requires them trickling down through many years to used-car market, public attitudes changing over time, etc. I.e. the law of diffusion of innovation. There are some things you can rush. You can rush-build a skyscraper or a restaurant. For better or worse, you can't really do that very effectively with consumer behavior.


The government has a long, long history of picking winners and not letting the market do it, and they have done it to speed development. Letting the market dictate the progress isn't always the best outcome.

sterlingice 02-15-2022 09:40 PM

Looks like that Ukraine invasion is back on (maybe)


NY Times

Leaked on 2/3 (presumably to get Europe, especially Germany, onboard with sanctions):
Quote:

Russia, the officials said, intended to use the video to accuse Ukraine of genocide against Russian-speaking people. It would then use the outrage over the video to justify an attack or have separatist leaders in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine invite a Russian intervention.


Putin Claims 'Genocide' Happening in Donbas Region of Ukraine (props to the Business Insider photographer for catching Putin using air quotes around genocide)

Quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday claimed, without evidence, that "genocide" is occurring in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, where Kremlin-backed rebels have been fighting a war with Ukrainian forces since 2014.


I mean, why stop with the greatest hits. It worked in Georgia in 2008. And in Crimea in 2014.

What else does that page say about the invasion of Georgia? Usually cyber attacks precede the real attack. Well, there's this from the past 6 hours:
Ukrainian says government websites, banks were hit with denial of service attack : NPR
Cyberattack hits websites of Ukraine defense ministry and armed forces

A number of people have predicted this week or even February 16th as the date. And it looks like troops are ready to go.

Of course, it's still all a guess as to whether it's a bluff just to destabilize Ukraine or an actual invasion.

SI

RainMaker 02-15-2022 10:15 PM

I personally think the invasion would be disastrous for Russia. Like bad enough to cripple the country and make it an afterthought around the world. It makes me wonder if there is a powerplay going on behind the scenes in Russia as to whether to do this.

Taking over Ukraine is no easy task. It's the size of Texas and armed to the teeth. Not 3rd world weaponry either, state of the art stuff. Counting reservists, their military is almost a million deep. And if the citizenry provides additional resistance, it will be an incredibly bloody and prolonged fight.

And if you have a bloody fight playing out on smartphones for the world to see, it makes them an even bigger pariah. The sanctions will get considerably worse and at some point Europe will have to cut them off completely. That also means potentially stopping their money laundering operations that the United States and most of Europe allows. They would be heavily isolated.

And this assumes that they are even remotely successful. As we've seen from Afghanistan, it's not easy to conquer another country. Resistance could be big and there will be a lot of Western money flooding in to help them. Can Russia handle a bloody 20 year war where they are shut off from the world and are forced to spend in perpetuity? Does their population care enough to stand behind it for that long?

Maybe Putin is some genius and the plan goes off without a hitch. But I think it would be a complete and utter disaster for Russia and maybe the little despot is having some second thoughts. Ukraine is not Georgia.

sterlingice 02-15-2022 10:36 PM

I think the speculation is that it would just be a "quick" mission to bomb strategic targets and then use ops to take out their sitting government and install their own puppet government. Not sure how that plays out.

SI

PilotMan 02-15-2022 11:15 PM

Russia has been systematically attacking Ukraine's infrastructure for the better part of a decade. It's been a war already...the Russians have gleaned everything about the country, have taken the power grid and internet offline on their own schedule. Playing the long game, they've already destabilized it in advance of whatever they have planned ahead.

Brian Swartz 02-15-2022 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan
The government has a long, long history of picking winners and not letting the market do it, and they have done it to speed development.


Yep. And they often get it wrong.

PilotMan 02-16-2022 12:13 AM

And frequently it's lead to great leaps in economic progress.

Brian Swartz 02-16-2022 12:27 AM

Yeah, I don't think that's actually the case.

PilotMan 02-16-2022 08:05 AM

Good for you?

JPhillips 02-16-2022 08:06 AM

Texas Lt Gov clarifying that the Liberty Institute is in charge of banning speech.


JPhillips 02-17-2022 11:31 AM

dola


RainMaker 02-17-2022 03:27 PM

Can't complain about the Democrats doing nothing anymore. They're stripping some free speech protections.

Key Senators Have Voted For The Anti-Encryption EARN IT Act | Electronic Frontier Foundation

Kodos 02-17-2022 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3360391)
Can't complain about the Democrats doing nothing anymore. They're stripping some free speech protections.

Key Senators Have Voted For The Anti-Encryption EARN IT Act | Electronic Frontier Foundation


Agreed. Anything that weakens encryption on the internet is a horrible move in the wrong direction. People need privacy. Sure, some will use encryption to cover up doing bad things, but that is no reason to get rid of or weaken encryption.

Edward64 02-18-2022 08:04 AM

Been reading that quantum computing will overwhelm current encryption standards. Somewhat scary to think in 20-30 years time, my Dell XPS desktop with the latest i7-quantum cpu can break all old encryption.

NobodyHere 02-18-2022 08:04 AM

Well this ain't good

East Ukraine sees its worst shelling in years | Reuters

BYU 14 02-18-2022 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3360427)


Russian is very adept at moving the goalposts to get the "excuse" they want. I am pretty sure Putin, regardless of his ultimate intentions, has no issue keeping this cat and mouse game going because it is getting him the attention he craves.

Edward64 02-18-2022 11:27 AM

Another nifty poll tracking various concerns from 2020-2021-2022. Some are about the same, many are worse. Only saw one better.

Quote:

Americans' satisfaction with the state of the nation took a major hit after a difficult 2020 and early 2021, and mostly did not improve in the past 12 months. Collectively, satisfaction at the start of 2022 in a variety of areas is about as bad as it's been in two decades of Gallup measurement. In many areas, such as crime and abortion, the percentage of Americans satisfied has not been lower.

Still, there are areas where most Americans remain satisfied, even if less so than in the past, such as the quality of U.S. life, the strength of the military and the position of women in the U.S. Their satisfaction with the acceptance of gays and lesbians stands in contrast to other areas, with an increase in satisfaction to the highest level measured to date.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/389309/...on-report.aspx

JPhillips 02-18-2022 04:04 PM

I would love to know what assets we have in Russia. It's pretty clear we have at least one in the Kremlin and close to Putin.

Edward64 02-19-2022 05:58 AM

Kamala in the news reiterating Biden's threats to Russia. After 2+ weeks of Biden/Blinken leading the charge, Kamala is now "allowed" to chime in. A little too late to be taken seriously IMO.

I had higher hopes for Kamala but it does seem she has been regulated to the traditional role of VP. I've read there was negative talk from Biden's staff vs Kamala last year and hope they have worked it out.

I'm thinking Joe does want to run again in 2024 and hence not propping up Kamala as much as he should for her to run in 2024. Honestly, I would be hard pressed to vote for Joe again unless somehow Trump was the GOP nominee.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/19/polit...ech/index.html
Quote:

Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday vowed there would be a "swift, severe and united" response if Russia invades Ukraine in a highly anticipated speech at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

Harris laid out retaliatory measures in a manner befitting her past career as a prosecutor, promising "significant and unprecedented" economic costs.

"We will impose far-reaching financial sanctions and export controls. We will target Russia's financial institutions and key industries. And we will target those who are complicit and those who aid and abet this unprovoked invasion," Harris said as she took center stage at the security conference, which is taking place as the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine reaches a boiling point.

JPhillips 02-19-2022 08:39 AM

It's just amazing that Dems can't make political hay out of this.


Edward64 02-20-2022 08:07 AM

(Brought over from the covid thread)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic (Post 3360570)
I really, really, really hope Trump decides against running again. One, he'd probably win, if the polling is anywhere near accurate. And two, he's a shitty president - we already know this. I'm sorry to those here who disagree with that - I don't think you're bad people for supporting him. But no... I don't want him back. Retire in peace. Go fund your twitter-equivalent and send out all the mean tweets you like. But please, please don't run again.


Trump support is still strong but McConnell has made moves to distance himself, so there's some hope there. But yeah, considering how Biden presidency has been sucking so far, I can see Trump supporters winning in 2022 and Trump winning in 2024.

It is the economy stupid. If election was now, goodbye Biden. Thankfully he has another 2 years to right the ship. And Trump's outrageous response to the pandemic will be blunted. Pandemic will be old news, we'll be in a new normal. Ivermectin, bleach, Fauci etc. will all passé by then. And because Biden has had more deaths (and climbing) in 13 months than in Trump's 11-12 months even with vaccines & improved therapeutics.

I would vote Biden if it was against Trump. But I'm not happy with Biden right now and would very seriously consider all comers other than Trump & Ted Cruz, Bernie and like.

Lathum 02-21-2022 08:36 AM

Hillary sitting at 12-1 to win the democratic nomination. Really thinking about dropping 1K on it. Only problem is that money would be tied up for a long time.

sterlingice 02-21-2022 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3360741)
Hillary sitting at 12-1 to win the democratic nomination. Really thinking about dropping 1K on it. Only problem is that money would be tied up for a long time.


I don't see how that would be good money at all. What's the scenario where she ends up the nominee? Biden doesn't run again so the party has to find someone else. They have to bypass Harris. If those both happen, it's because things are going badly. If that's the case, why would they go to someone who already lost in 2016, yet another aging boomer. I would think they'd try to go in a different direction and get younger.

SI

Brian Swartz 02-21-2022 09:40 AM

Yep. I wouldn't take that at 120-1.

Lathum 02-21-2022 09:46 AM

I've just heard a lot of speculation about her lately.

Thomkal 02-21-2022 10:13 AM

I think the only way Hilary comes back to politics is if Trump et al are convicted of something connected to trying to overturn the election-then she may feel energized to run again-see I was right! but otherwise I think she's tired of it all and will stay away. She is enemy #1 over any Dem I can think of (just look at Fox coverage of the whole Eastman report), and I'm not sure she wants to go through all that again, nor do enough Dems want to go through all that again.

NobodyHere 02-21-2022 10:17 AM

If Biden isn't the nominee then the Democrats should go with someone younger to bring more energy into the campaign. They need to stop trotting out dinosaurs.

Edward64 02-21-2022 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3360753)
If Biden isn't the nominee then the Democrats should go with someone younger to bring more energy into the campaign. They need to stop trotting out dinosaurs.


That was the plan for Kamala but that may not work out well ...

Brian Swartz 02-21-2022 10:42 AM

The problem is that voters keep choosing the 'dinosaurs'. That's not really the fault of the parties. It seems life experience/recognition is valued more than youth by the average American these days.

sterlingice 02-21-2022 11:02 AM

Also, those "dinosaurs" have built up a lot of power in the party in a way that young politicians just can't have. Biden and Hillary have had 30+ years to build up power in the party. Pelosi, too. They have a chance to put some thumbs on the scale about how the nominee is decided. And I don't mean by like some shady back room dealings, though I'm sure those happen, too. But by things like who gets good cabinet posts, who gets to speak at the State of the Union or party convention, whose campaign gets a boost from a visit from a popular President, etc.

EDIT: Just to pick a name out of a hat - look at Buttigieg. He got some traction but a decent chunk of people gave him pause because people didn't want someone to go from mayor of a small town to President (yes, there were a lot of other reasons, too, but for a number of people, that was a big deal). He's viewed as a rising star so he gets a cabinet post so that next time he can claim some national experience. Obama was pushed for the Senate seat in Illinois because the Dems thought they had a rising star there. On the other hand, no one was claiming Hillary wasn't qualified as a Senator, Secretary of State, and active First Lady and she's had a lot of time to build up a political machine within the party. But there are only so many plum spots to go around and some go to up and comers while others go to payback for folks who helped elevate others in the past.

SI

JPhillips 02-21-2022 11:58 AM

I wouldn't take Hillary at 1000 to 1. She isn't going to be the nominee. She won't run. If she runs, she won't win.

Lathum 02-21-2022 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3360753)
If Biden isn't the nominee then the Democrats should go with someone younger to bring more energy into the campaign. They need to stop trotting out dinosaurs.


If that person exists they will be the nominee over Biden anyway.

Lathum 02-21-2022 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3360760)
I wouldn't take Hillary at 1000 to 1. She isn't going to be the nominee. She won't run. If she runs, she won't win.


How about you give me 50-1. She doesn’t get it I send you $100 the next day. She gets it you send me 1k a year for 5 years.

bronconick 02-21-2022 12:29 PM

Nominating Clinton would be a great way to hand the GOP a strong trifecta where the feds can pass all those extreme laws that state legislatures love.

RainMaker 02-21-2022 12:29 PM

Mark Kelly is the best possible candidate the Democrats could trot out and it is not particularly close.

BYU 14 02-21-2022 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3360767)
Mark Kelly is the best possible candidate the Democrats could trot out and it is not particularly close.


I like Mark a lot and feel he has done a good job here for the entire state. Just think 2024 will be too soon because he doesn't have recognition country wide, because he just quietly goes about.......Doing his damn job, novel concept.

larrymcg421 02-21-2022 01:35 PM

I'll go with the boring answer.

If Biden runs, he will be the nominee.
If Biden doesn't run, Harris will be the nominee.

Atocep 02-21-2022 01:52 PM

My wife visited her family in Texas for a week recently. They've moved on from Trump and are all in on Desantis. They also want Tulsi as his VP.

It was an interesting trip for her. It was her first time visiting since Trump was elected and listening to her describe conversations that took place was incredible. All the more interesting since she's moved from Center-Right to Left since we got married (5 years) and her family has moved further to the right since 2016.

RainMaker 02-21-2022 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3360776)
I like Mark a lot and feel he has done a good job here for the entire state. Just think 2024 will be too soon because he doesn't have recognition country wide, because he just quietly goes about.......Doing his damn job, novel concept.


He's 58, so I think the sooner the better. I think his short time as a Senator has advantages. No real terrible votes on his record.

It would require an effort from the Democrats to promote him and build a narrative around him. Something they are not going to do. But if they wanted to win, that would be the way to go.

sterlingice 02-21-2022 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3360779)
My wife visited her family in Texas for a week recently. They've moved on from Trump and are all in on Desantis. They also want Tulsi as his VP.

It was an interesting trip for her. It was her first time visiting since Trump was elected and listening to her describe conversations that took place was incredible. All the more interesting since she's moved from Center-Right to Left since we got married (5 years) and her family has moved further to the right since 2016.


DeSantis has done a masterful job of trying to pretend to be Trump without the crazy person while still maintaining the crazy policies. He's set himself up as the heir apparent.

SI

Atocep 02-21-2022 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3360784)
DeSantis has done a masterful job of trying to pretend to be Trump without the crazy person while still maintaining the crazy policies. He's set himself up as the heir apparent.

SI



He's mastered the authoritarian look that rallies the based knowing it won't get past the judicial system. Throw the red meat to the wolves, let it get national attention, and then it gets shot down in the courts and you can blame the woke judges.

It was interesting, though, that they had no interest in seeing Trump run again.

bhlloy 02-21-2022 02:50 PM

Probably wishful thinking, but I guess we can hope the Trump wing of the party declares civil war on itself and a candidate a bit closer to sanity emerges? Feels like we are too far gone for that to be a realistic scenario, but it might be our last hope to salvage the next few election cycles.

Ksyrup 02-21-2022 02:51 PM

It's not that tough to appeal to the base while not repeatedly punching yourself in the balls like Trump. Desantis beat Hawley and a couple of others to that mantle. They are way more dangerous because they seem smart enough not to make Trump's unforced errors.

NobodyHere 02-21-2022 03:13 PM

Biden responds with sanctions after Putin recognizes breakaway Ukraine regions

RainMaker 02-21-2022 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3360790)


None of that will do shit. Just cut them off from SWIFT and see how quick sentiments change.

thesloppy 02-21-2022 03:58 PM

If I read that correctly Biden responded to Russia's language by sanctioning parts of Ukraine.

RainMaker 02-21-2022 04:21 PM

I'm sure the people who have shit their pants on foreign policy with Russia for the past 30 years will figure this out.

Edward64 02-21-2022 05:47 PM

I'm thinking Putin is winning this game of chicken so far.

sterlingice 02-21-2022 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3360789)
It's not that tough to appeal to the base while not repeatedly punching yourself in the balls like Trump. Desantis beat Hawley and a couple of others to that mantle. They are way more dangerous because they seem smart enough not to make Trump's unforced errors.


Yeah, I'm sure I've written on these pages that it's not Trump who will be the most dangerous but the person that Trump paved the way. Trump's more like fascist John the Baptist.

SI

Atocep 02-21-2022 10:49 PM

This is absolutely crazy.

Florida 'Don't Say Gay' bill amendment would force schools to out students

Quote:

A new amendment to Florida’s so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill would explicitly require schools to inform parents of their child’s sexual orientation, and put a deadline on how soon they must tell the family.

The amendment filed by bill sponsor Rep. Joe Harding, R-Williston, on Feb. 18 changes the bill to instead not only require disclosure, but requires schools to tell parents within six weeks of learning the student is any sexual orientation other than straight.

Flasch186 02-22-2022 06:50 AM

There is no bottom.

RainMaker 02-22-2022 06:52 AM

Germany halting Nord Stream 2 is pretty massive. Word had been that was never an option even with an invasion. Maybe the sanctions from the West will have some teeth.

flere-imsaho 02-22-2022 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3360831)


Quote:

Originally Posted by Flasch186 (Post 3360838)
There is no bottom.


$20 says we'll eventually find out that DeSantis is a bottom.

Ksyrup 02-22-2022 06:58 AM

One of the common elements of many of the new GOP bills dealing with different topics is weaponizing the citizenry as snitches and providing private causes of action for this sort of thing. We're seeing it with gay rights, CRT, abortion, etc. This goes hand-in-hand with stuff like giving private gun owners LEO status. It's fearmongering and legally incentivizing turning one segment of our population against another. It certainly appears to be part of a grander scheme to further divide the country to impose the laws/morals they want by intimidation (or worse).

sterlingice 02-22-2022 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3360841)
One of the common elements of many of the new GOP bills dealing with different topics is weaponizing the citizenry as snitches and providing private causes of action for this sort of thing. We're seeing it with gay rights, CRT, abortion, etc. This goes hand-in-hand with stuff like giving private gun owners LEO status. It's fearmongering and legally incentivizing turning one segment of our population against another. It certainly appears to be part of a grander scheme to further divide the country to impose the laws/morals they want by intimidation (or worse).


At the risk of Godwin'ing the thread, it's the same stuff we were taught at kids that made the Nazis and the Communists the really bad guys. Or it's what made the intro to Christoph Waltz's character so brilliant in Inglourious Basterds. It wasn't that there was some giant elite government force that kept the people down. No, they turned their own people's worst tendencies against each other to enforce the hate.

SI

Thomkal 02-22-2022 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 3360840)
$20 says we'll eventually find out that DeSantis is a bottom.



Sorry we don't want him or Lindsay Graham either

BYU 14 02-22-2022 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3360831)


Fuck them all, so this is the same state that bans books and teaching kids about, you know all history, doesn't want teachers to form their own curriculum, but insists they get involved in a social/personal issue over a child's sexual orientation, which they also can't talk about in class, but outing the kid to their parents is okay.

RainMaker 02-22-2022 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3360843)
At the risk of Godwin'ing the thread, it's the same stuff we were taught at kids that made the Nazis and the Communists the really bad guys. Or it's what made the intro to Christoph Waltz's character so brilliant in Inglourious Basterds. It wasn't that there was some giant elite government force that kept the people down. No, they turned their own people's worst tendencies against each other to enforce the hate.

SI


Guess what we won't be able to teach in schools soon.

sterlingice 02-22-2022 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3360881)
Guess what we won't be able to teach in schools soon.


To be fair, when I was growing up, we also glossed over the part where we did that in the US like with Japanese internment or the Red Scare.

SI

Brian Swartz 02-22-2022 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep
This is absolutely crazy.


Yep. 8thing or 15thing this or whatever we're on now. None of the school's business.

RainMaker 02-22-2022 03:44 PM

UK sanctions are extremely light. Not a huge surprise as they are so intertwined with Russian oligarchs and money laundering. Germany is really the only one that has shown some teeth so far.

Did find this an interesting use of parliament. Can't be sued if you have parliamentary privelege.



JPhillips 02-22-2022 05:42 PM

This GOP complaint that Biden is weak because he turns around and walks out of press briefings is the fucking stupidest thing in the universe.

And it will probably lower Biden's approval rating.

Edward64 02-22-2022 08:49 PM

Looks like Biden might get a US-Iran deal done. Devil is in the details but read it will probably include "prisoner/hostage" exchange. Nice win for him but unfortunately Ukraine is dominating the news right now.

Iran's foreign minister says new nuclear deal "has never been closer" | Euronews

albionmoonlight 02-23-2022 07:44 AM



This encapsulates something that I've had trouble articulating to myself about the MAGA right. But I think this gets it. 50% of this country has a politics that says that if someone calls you, personally, a racist, they are worse than Putin.

It's the selfishness that I was missing. The idea that you, personally, are so precious and important that someone literally calling you a name is worse than someone committing actual genocide.

I'm not sure how Biden competes with that. The current Democratic party requires sacrifice and working together--the whole "we are the change we've been waiting for" thing.

He simply can't pander as much as the GOP can. And, as a moral matter, he should not. People who think that their neighbor who looks at them funny is literally worse than Putin are horrible selfish people who don't deserve to be pandered to. But, as a political matter, it will get him killed in 2022.

Brian Swartz 02-23-2022 09:31 AM

Polls aren't really backing up what Tucker is saying though. 50% of even Republicans favor economic sanctions against Russia (Democrats at 59%, so there's not much of a partisan split). No recent polling on Putin that I can find, but among Republicans as of last summer he had approval in the high teens and disapproval over 60% among Republicans.

When asked what side the US should favor, it's consistently something like 4-5% that say we should support Russia. The others are roughly split between favoring Ukraine and staying out of it. While I think that's scary on it's own, Tucker's (and Trump's) position is interesting because there simply isn't this groundswell of pro-Putin or pro-Russia support.

sterlingice 02-23-2022 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3360979)
Polls aren't really backing up what Tucker is saying though. 50% of even Republicans favor economic sanctions against Russia (Democrats at 59%, so there's not much of a partisan split). No recent polling on Putin that I can find, but among Republicans as of last summer he had approval in the high teens and disapproval over 60% among Republicans.

When asked what side the US should favor, it's consistently something like 4-5% that say we should support Russia. The others are roughly split between favoring Ukraine and staying out of it. While I think that's scary on it's own, Tucker's (and Trump's) position is interesting because there simply isn't this groundswell of pro-Putin or pro-Russia support.


Let's see where those poll numbers move in the next month once the Fox News ecosystem starts promoting it

They've done a light touch on it over the last 4 years as Trump helped soften up people on Putin. But now that they can rail on it as something Biden is doing wrong, there's a good chance those numbers move.

SI

Ksyrup 02-23-2022 09:41 AM

Not for lack of trying!

It really is weird. You have part of the GOP complaining that we aren't moving fast enough toward harsher sanctions, part complaining that we are even concerned with what's going on over there at all, and part seemingly siding with Russia.

As to the last, I can't tell if it's because they have some direct ties to Russia or it's simply a "take the opposite side of the Dems" reflex that has to be adhered to at all cost. Because when you constantly call your neighbors evil, it's hard to say "but we generally agree on this" about anything.

albionmoonlight 02-23-2022 11:12 AM

My point isn't about what percentage of GOPers agree with Putin (but with both Trump and Carlson rooting for him, I'd expect it is a higher percentage than we'd like to admit).

My point is that a valid GOP response to Putin is "You think this guy is bad? What about that time someone called you a mean name?"

It's fucked up.

Atocep 02-23-2022 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3360979)
Polls aren't really backing up what Tucker is saying though. 50% of even Republicans favor economic sanctions against Russia (Democrats at 59%, so there's not much of a partisan split). No recent polling on Putin that I can find, but among Republicans as of last summer he had approval in the high teens and disapproval over 60% among Republicans.

When asked what side the US should favor, it's consistently something like 4-5% that say we should support Russia. The others are roughly split between favoring Ukraine and staying out of it. While I think that's scary on it's own, Tucker's (and Trump's) position is interesting because there simply isn't this groundswell of pro-Putin or pro-Russia support.



Assuming you're referencing the YouGov poll, that same poll showed Putin had a higher approval rating among conservatives than Biden which backs Albion's point. Putin may be a psychopath that's murdered countless people and is in the early stages of starting the largest war in Europe in several decades but he hasn't done anything mean to me while this Biden guy wants me to wear a mask and get a shot.

RainMaker 02-23-2022 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3360982)
As to the last, I can't tell if it's because they have some direct ties to Russia or it's simply a "take the opposite side of the Dems" reflex that has to be adhered to at all cost. Because when you constantly call your neighbors evil, it's hard to say "but we generally agree on this" about anything.


I think some would like us to become more like Russia. A sort of soft fascism. Don't forget that Fox ran a long puff-piece about Hungary too. And the party platform for Republicans keeps edging closer and closer to it.

As for the people, many probably just do as Tucker tells them. Some instinctively are built to go against anything Democrats support. They're useful idiots for the people in charge and will just end up serfs under the system they will ultimately support.

RainMaker 02-23-2022 01:30 PM

I also think some of it is to just glorify authoritarianism in general. Dance around actually supporting Russia, but making it seem like Putin is doing great things for the country. If only we could have a strong dictator....errr President, we can do great things too.

miami_fan 02-23-2022 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3360841)
One of the common elements of many of the new GOP bills dealing with different topics is weaponizing the citizenry as snitches and providing private causes of action for this sort of thing. We're seeing it with gay rights, CRT, abortion, etc. This goes hand-in-hand with stuff like giving private gun owners LEO status. It's fearmongering and legally incentivizing turning one segment of our population against another. It certainly appears to be part of a grander scheme to further divide the country to impose the laws/morals they want by intimidation (or worse).


It is almost like these are the things that they believe made America great in the past and want to bring it back to make America great again.

Brian Swartz 02-23-2022 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight
My point is that a valid GOP response to Putin is "You think this guy is bad? What about that time someone called you a mean name?"

It's fucked up.


On this, it's been discussed on this board before but this is not new. It goes back decades and has practitioners of both parties (with Republicans being decidedly worse in recent years).

I would also say being called a racist is a little worse than 'a mean name'. For most people who aren't racists, it's one of the worst things you can accuse them of.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep
Assuming you're referencing the YouGov poll, that same poll showed Putin had a higher approval rating among conservatives than Biden which backs Albion's point. Putin may be a psychopath that's murdered countless people and is in the early stages of starting the largest war in Europe in several decades but he hasn't done anything mean to me while this Biden guy wants me to wear a mask and get a shot.


I don't see how it does any of that. When the poll last summer was taken, Ukraine wasn't even on the radar. Or are you talking about a different one possibly? There's also a big difference between what albion said and what you're describing, so ... yeah.

QuikSand 02-23-2022 06:16 PM

democrats i talk to think the fall of 22 election will shape up as about R+6... meaning that being an R will be worth about 6 points, generally speaking, in effectively every race

Brian Swartz 02-23-2022 06:33 PM

Yikes. I hope you're/they're wrong about that.

PilotMan 02-23-2022 06:43 PM

He's not. Between the imbalance in representation between the least and most populous states, and the gerrymandering involved its right on. I read that eventually it's predicted to hit R +10 from as cities get bigger.

miked 02-23-2022 07:37 PM

Of course, more people will vote for D candidates than R candidates, but the R will control 75% of seats or something across the country. It's amazing that they have built the most insane minority rule system in the world.

Edward64 02-23-2022 08:42 PM

Now showing in theatres in US and Europe ... Cold War II starring Biden & Putin.

I don't see how Biden comes out looking good here unless Putin withdraws from all of Ukraine. At the very least, he's going to keep the couple Russian friendly regions he already has.

News article insinuated that Taiwan is at risk as China assesses their chance for an invasion. I have faith that Taiwan will be a tougher battle (e.g. island fortress ) but that one has a fair chance of US troops involved which will be really bad. Think the odds are low for this though.

Reminds me of Civ VI. In the early game, I always get attacked if I don't have at least 1 warrior/archer in each city and a couple additional floating around for good measure. They know when you're weak.

Edward64 02-23-2022 09:08 PM

Sorry Ukraine, count me in as "minor role". EU should be taking the lead here with US supporting.

America’s role in the Russia and Ukraine situation - AP-NORC


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