I agree here. As much as I don't like Trump and think he's a complete buffoon, what has he really done damage on? The economy is strong, jobs are good, confidence is good and most people are as good (if not better off) than when he started. Is he aggravating to listen to and watch? Of course. But I would say he has done much better than the last two republican presidents (the Bush's) whom everyone "liked" more.

He's a complete idiot and it is annoying to here the leader of your country act like a petulant child more often than not, but I'm not sure the country is in the dire straits the left is making it seem. Don't get me wrong, I hope Trump loses - but I'm not sure the panic needs to be at a level where we pray for an 11-month recession to make it happen.

FFS. Listen I will leave it at this since apparently I am the only one that thinks this wishing for a recession for political purposes is quite possibly not only the dumbest idea ever but the pure definition of selfishness.

Right and your whole argument is "recessions happen". Well everyone dies so why give a shit about anything right? It's absurd to wish for a recession for purely political purposes. I don't think one needs an economics degree to understand that.

Wait what... do people actually think Trump's bad parts are just that he's aggravating to listen to and watch?!!

Like not his stirring up of racism (especially against Latin Americans and Muslims)? Not his actions against the press? Not his attempts to weaponize family separation at the border? Not his attempts to turn refugees into 'illegals'? Not his gutting of federal agencies?

Is this what white folks just see? My 401k is good so fuck brown people? Because that is more terrifying than anything else I've seen.

It's always about race isn't it? What would be ironic is this exact same recession discussion 8 years ago. Oh boy the racism talk about one wishing a recession on a black president would be through the roof.

That's a fun reductio ad absurdum. Recessions are an integral part of the business cycle - they are considered corrections to overheating economies (which if unchecked and kept going leads to crippling inflation). There is a reason why Central Banks try to slow down economies at times - and they weigh at times whether its better to have a small recession now or a much larger recession later. So the decisions is when will the recession hit, not if, and small recessions are easier to deal with than bigger ones.

So I have no issue wishing for a small recession in the Spring so that the existential threat to our democracy and morality is removed.

Yes. It must be nice to be white and get to ignore race when you want to. We don't have that luxury.

Turns out he did have a bit of a recession to deal with.

It isn't about impacting my life. It is about the impact he has on our nation, and the world, as a whole.

Just the environmental rollbacks alone are enough to make me say a short term recession is worth it for the long term gain.

Trump has been in office just over 3 years and look at the damage he has done. Another 4 years of him unchecked, because we now know the Senate is powerless, could literally destroy us as a nation.

Would a recession harm many Americans, absolutely, but the alternative is far more harmful long term.

Old white folks.

My dad is the nicest guy you will meet. Owned the town pharmacy for 45 years. Recently got an award from an African american group because he was integral in the hiring of many blacks in the 60s when no one would. Beloved by the whole community. Never, ever, heard him say a racist word even though his dad was a raging racist.

Fully supports Trump. Admits he is a total ass, but because the economy is good, and his investments keep doing well he supports him.

Don't underestimate the GOP PR machine when it gets fired up about Trump being the only one who can keep this going.

What about alienating all our allies and coddling dictators? What about environmental rollbacks? What about openly obstructing justice and witness intimidation? What about openly conspiring with foreign governments to bring down political opponents? What about empowering his followers to commit acts of violence against people who don't look like him? etc...etc...

He has fragmented us so much as a nation that I actually fear violence on a scale we haven't witnessed before, save for the civil war, could occur if he losses the election. He won't go quietly.

If he wins the election, you can bet he will put the wheels in motion to remove presidential term limits, and his followers will cheer.

I also think it is only a matter of time, and if he wins almost a certainty, that you see Schiff, Pelosi, Biden, etc...arrested and charged with BS crimes.

Indeed. I work in the same building as the EPA region in the Southeast. They appear to be the most dejected people I've ever seen in government service. Their mission has been completely destroyed and the agency has been gutted. And still the Administration rolls back environmental protections - now looking at selling rights to protected land in Utah (probably to get back at Romney - like a mob boss would do).

I saw that. Shameful.

The problem with a lot of Trump voters is they are boomers. They couldn't care less because they won't be here in 30 years.

Perhaps a good way to put it is that we see a Hugo Chavez or Reccip Erdogan attempted take over. Now I believe and hope our institutions are stronger than Venezuela and Turkey, but it's the same damned playbook.

This is probably the best case - but a lot of his changes have involved marginal decreases to help business and the reporting of pollution. The four water regulations he's changed have involved mostly non-populated areas. Again, I don't agree with them, but I think it's a stretch to say they've done massive damage compared to what we've already done under Bush and Obama.

This is on congress. Trump certainly doesn't help, but you could make Chuck Shumer president tomorrow and no sensible gun legislation would get passed with this House and Senate. You need changes there (and with the gun lobby) before you even worry about the president. Bernie or Bloomberg isn't going to solve this unless you get massive congressional changes.

Every president since JFK has "nearly pulled us into war" - and many have pulled us into war. I'm not sure his actions against Iran have amounted to a massive change in US foreign policy.

There's a massive division no matter who is president. You think Bernie would fix this? Trump is a buffoon and does not distance himself from racism, but we are a country with a massive division on political, economical and social issues. No president in this election will change that.

Much like the Iran thing, nothing has actually happened.

This is the way US government is now. It's why so many people stump for tax cuts. If we are going to blow the money anyway - atleast give it back to the citizens. There are just too many political mouths to feed for us to really cut into it. But, it does ebb and flow. Obama added $4.6 Trillion in his first term and Trump looks to be adding closer to $5 trillion. Usually presidents do better in their second term as they aren't trying to setup re-election. You could make the argument a 2nd term for Trump would be better for the deficit than a first term for Bernie or Warren. But, the reality is both situations will result in a big deficit increase. Trump's first term has certainly been bad for the federal deficit - but I don't know that any president would have to stomach to stem that tide.

Overall, Trump has made some policy decisions on the environment that aren't the best, and his rhetoric has been dreadful at times - but I don't think massive damage has been done. I hope he loses, but I'm not to the level of hoping harm to the nation to make that happen.

I find it curious you hope he loses yet don’t want harm to the nation to make it happen. What is your reasoning for wanting him to lose then? Seems to me either way the nation would be harmed.

I work for the federal agency that enforces the ACA. We are not allowed to cite violations of the ACA for the 2019 Plan year going forward (thankfully we can still continue pursue violations we cited in 2018). So insurance companies that are violating the ACA in 2019 can do so.

This has happened in multiple agencies - so things are being done just aren't being widely reported.

I would prefer he not be president because I don't like him. But, I think people give the president way too much credit/blame for what goes on in the country. Confidence and leadership are pretty much the extent of what a president can provide - and in a strong economic time like we are in now a 5-year old could be president (which isn't far off of Trump).

I think Obama did a very nice job of navigating the bank disaster and leading the country. But, he ran nearly a $5 trillion deficit and the economy never got to the levels we are at right now. None of that was his fault, just like Trump doesn't deserve all the praise for a strong 2019-20. I usually won't vote for a president who's stated economic policies could massively impact my situation. But, I also think that's also a little short-sited on my part as it is very unlikely someone like Bernie would get his plans through congress. So, I really don't lose sleep on who wins the presidency.

There's no way a second Trump term would be better for the deficit than a Dem president. We already know what Trump wants to do and that includes yearly trillion dollar plus deficits. The minute a Dem is elected the entire GOP infrastructure will go into deficit madness. There's no way a Dem is going to be able to run trillion dollar deficits unopposed the way Trump is doing.

That is a good point. Given the state of congress, a democratic president would struggle to get a lot passed and probably help the deficit. I hadn't thought of it and it's a another reason to vote for the Dem nominee. I'm still not losing sleep over who wins, but this is a really good point provided the republicans don't lose a bunch of seats in 2020 or 2022. Not sure how likely that is though.

Yeah I'm not in the mood for this nonsense normalization of Trump. The guy is a racist, corrupt, moronic piece of shit. Claiming that he just "talks bad" and is really no different than any other politician is just bullshit gaslighting of the highest order and I consider it a direct insult.

The federal hiring freeze had a massive negative impact on my workplace. Despite being one of the largest military hospitals there were no waivers for us. It just so happened to be timed with the transition to DHA support and during preparations for our MHS Genesis rollout later that year. That's just from my IT perspective. I can't imagine what the clinics and departments here were going through with a 4 month hiring freeze.

Trump has continually fought to keep our pay down. He first eliminated raises that were eventually restored by congress, but even now he's trying to cap raises next year at 1%.

His administration has leaked memos outlining plans to ban unions in the DoD (that's me), VA, DHS, and federal OPM.

Little things like the time it takes to get a passport or the time it takes to get Global Entry. Those are State Department jobs that still haven't recovered from the shutdown last year. Where we used to see a month turnaround to get things done, we now see 6 month waits and even expedited is only getting to you just before you need it. That the department has been either cut, or not fully staffed is proof of his delinquency in running the government. Yet you'll see small govt types praising him for the cuts, at the same time running the govt down for being inefficient and not able to handle simple tasks like passports. Parts of the government are completly overwhelmed with the amount of work that needs done, and all he can do is say, "look how much cheaper it is!" I've worked for companies like that, they all fail in the end.

Re: my hypothetical question, I support a typical 11 month recession if it guarantees a Trump loss. I am in a peculiar place here because I often disagree much with the Liberal echo chamber here and support some of Trump's policies.

I think the calculus that we all go through is whether a Trump 2nd term will do more damage to the country than a typical recession. To me its a good trade off. Here's my rationale

1) Its not about me. I am benefiting from the Trump Presidency - so far its been a great stock market and solid economy. I like some of his foreign policy initiatives. Definitely support his stance on illegal immigration etc.

2) Recessions are normal, its part of the business cycle. If we are overdue for one, let's get it over with (but like I said previously, IMO its too late to impact Trump so I'm okay if one does not happen now). People will definitely get hurt with the layoffs and stock market hit, most of bell curve will be better 3-5 years later. Likely the bottom 10-20% will likely never recover but how are they doing now with Trump?

3) Much of what the board liberals have said about why they don't support a second term differs from my rationale. Environment is not a Top 5 issue for me, I'm willing to trade energy independence for fracking and like (which buys us time for Elon and the like). Gun regulation, I do support tougher laws but its not all on Trump. Deficit is a real problem but not all on Trump either as evidenced by my prior posts & charts. Not too worried about SCOTUS

4) I am not a never Trump'er. I can see where a Democratic candidate like Sanders could do just as much (or more) damage as Trump but in a different way. I've said my preferred candidate is Biden and would like to know more about Bloomberg

5) I consider myself a nationalist, in my simplistic definition I put the US first. Not a white nationalist, not a fascist etc. with all the negative connotations that is often thrown about here. I consider US to be the best country in the world and still the land of opportunity for the majority of the bell curve

The reasons why I do not support a Trump second term are:

6) Another Trump term would be a reaffirmation that the US embraces Trump with his warts and all - his bullying manner, his lack of empathy, his lack of diplomacy while dealing with allies (don't mind it with frenemies), his misogyny, his willingness to use his political power to spy on political opposition to benefit himself etc. It also positions his family to more likely run for office and win. I hate to think we are like that. There is no question everyone knows who Trump is in 2020

7) Another Trump term would embolden the GOP senate vs returning to the good old days. Using a simple example, 1 is Sanders, 10 in Trump, the historical middle ground has been 4-6, even 3-7 and I want a return to that

8) Overall global opinion of Trump is negative. Don't care about enemies or frenemies but this is with our allies (with the exception of good old Israel). Overall global opinion of US is going in the wrong direction. I want the vast majority of legal immigrants-wannabees to continue selecting the US by a huge margin, I want other countries' brain drain to benefit us. Simplistically, I want most of the world to like us and view us as their protector from the evil empires

9) Another Trump term means this country won't heal the divisiveness in the next 4 years, or what I consider a return to sanity. I don't think a Sanders administration will do that either and hence my preference for Biden

So thinking long term, thinking globally (e.g. not just me personally), thinking about the US coming together and healing some, I'm all for a recession if it guarantees a Trump loss and a win for a "reasonable" Dem nominee.

It does seem to always come back to that doesn't it?

I differ from you in the hypothetical question but agree with your sentiments here.

:deadhorse:

Just for an interesting sidebar, I wonder what would be different in the next few years under Trump vs the dem nominee (let's say Bernie). I'll take the main issues that seem to bother people:

1. Immigration
Bernie would roll back some enforcement, but I doubt the laws would change. I'm guessing fewer people would be detained, but we had a bunch detained under Obama. So, maybe a small difference here - but not a real noticeable one.

2. Tax policy
I don't even think Bernie could get a repeal of the tax cuts passed in congress - let alone his major changes. He may get a small increase on the rich, but I don't think many people would be impacted.

3. Health Care
He certainly would stop the assault on the ACA, but I don't see any new changes passed. So, more enforcement of the ACA, but that's about it.

4. Environment
This would probably be the biggest change, but it would mostly be to undo some of Trump's elective orders. I don't see anything massive on carbon tax or clean energy getting passed.

5. Gun control
Again, I don't see much of a change. Congress wouldn't go for even minor restrictions at this point.

6. Economy
It would certainly be worse under Bernie. Not only are we due for a small correction, but Bernie's stance on capital gains, other taxes, environmental regulation and health care would hurt the market's confidence.

7. Military
Bernie would certainly cut funding and draw a much softer line with our enemies. How would it change? I doubt by much - it's not like he would be passive if Iran/Korea start posturing (atleast I hope he wouldn't).

8. Rhetoric
Bernie would be a nice change here. No more subtle acceptance of racism, belittling groups/women, idiotic statements and petty attacks on people. That would be a nice change, but I don't think it changes how divided we are as a nation. There will still be plenty of class warfare under Bernie and a massive political divide.

So, in the end, people are willing to "trade" a long term recessions to get a president who will do some marginal changes on tax, environment and health care (if even that), as well as have a different tone as president. I guess I just don't see that much changing either way - esp enough to justify that kind of pain.

Right. And some of the latest comments show why a lot of People of Color simply don't trust white people right now. Because we get told, oh it's just some racist rhetoric, nothing too bad, with a President that is systemically targeting black and brown people with rhetoric that has incited racist activity and targeted executive action (Stephen Miller is White Supremacist and is Senior Advisor to the President - an ally of his just got tagged to be the top attorney at DHS). But it's not a big deal because it doesn't affect their 401(k) amounts. Feels as if our humanity doesn't matter vis-a-vis profits. Makes me feel like Jeremiah Wright was correct in his "Confusing God and Government" sermon, tbh.

This government kidnapped thousands of children, separated them from their parents, and kept such poor records that many of them can't ever be reunited.

If this was the only objectionable thing Trump had done, it would be enough to vote him out of office.

If we're accepting the fact that recessions are going to happen regardless of anything else then hoping for one 6-12 months early isn't very objectionable IMO. If the choice is no recession ever or maybe holding one off for a few years I get it. The problem, in this scenario, is that the market is trending toward a recession sometime within the next year. Everyone knows that so saying hey let's get it out of the way now and get Trump out of office isn't as bad as saying the same 3 years ago.

But as you say, we could both sides this all day. I personally find putting your retirement and the stock market above human life disgusting and we see that in the right in defense of Trump quite often.

One of the key differences between the left and right seems to be the difference is whether or not and when society should step in to help those that need help.

George W Bush lied to start a disastrous war in Iraq that led to the deaths of millions. Not to mention the thousands of American soldiers and countless ore who were irreparably maimed.

Obama didn't prosecute a single banker, handed them bailout after bailout, and then ran corrupt programs that allowed those criminals to commit even more crimes. He locked up a record number of whistleblowers.

Clinton signed the disastrous crime bill and bombed innocent people to distract from himself committing perjury. He also helped repeal Glass-Steagall which was arguably the biggest contributor to the financial collapse a decade later.

HW pardoned a bunch of felons who committed treason not only because they were friends, but also to protect his own self legally.

Trump is all those things you've said. He will have a list of bad things just like these other Presidents. I just don't see how anything he has done can come close to what W did.

Well said, Rainmaker.

With social media, I think we have lost a lot of perspective with politics (and we didn't have much to start with). I expect every election from here on down the line to be comparable to "life or death" for each side as they rile each other into a frenzy of how awful the other side is. It's really unfortunate as I fear this kills any substantial political discussion each side can ever have with each other. It's basically "we are the rebel alliance and the opponent is the Empire trying to elect Darth Vader."

It isn't just Trump for me. This GOP has made it remarkably clear through actions, statements, and documentation that they see power as more important than democracy. Plenty of those in power are trying to make an apartheid state.

It's not just Trump, but it is an order of magnitude different than the past.

Is it though? The Southern Strategy was over 50 years ago.

I guess my point is that Trump isn't some aberration in the Republican Party. This has been the GOP since the 60's. Trump just says the quiet parts out loud which makes him unique.

You could make a case that Trump is actually campaigning on the basis “we are the Empire and the opponent is the Rebel Alliance trying to destroy everything” but I agree with the general point :)

I think there's been a slope to fall to this point, but from gerrymandering to voter suppression to court seats to foreign collusion to using the DoJ as a personal law firm, etc., things are qualitatively different.

Plenty of GOP members have said what's driving this, they're afraid the country is changing and that they can't win fair elections anymore. They are becoming more and more a party opposed to democracy.

Edward's hypothetical was pointless imo, that's why I didn't answer it. Given the absolute that it puts out there - Trump 100% wins without a recession, a dem wins 100% with, the "wishing for recession" answers are much softer and contain far less malice than I believe you're assigning to them.

And the pivot is to a party that actively works against perhaps its most popular candidate to keep him from being nominated. Basically we're not a democracy wherever we go.

"Its" is an important word there.

Bernie is getting under 30% right now. If he clears 40% he'll get the nomination. If he doesn't he won't. Just like in 2016, stop complaining and go win.

Democrats don't know how to win. And part of that is because they put their thumbs on the scale instead of just letting members of their party choose a nominee.

Bernie supporters on the left can be nearly as bad as trump supporters on the right. They are willing to buy in and support whatever conspiracy makes them feel the most aggrieved and throw a massive temper tantrum when they don't get their way.

Yup.

I'm sure there's good people on both sides.

As a former frontrunner would say, Mularkey!

Bernie isn't a Democrat. Not only that, he has spent years shitting all over the party and, more importantly, the people working for the party. He doesn't campaign for a lot of Democrats. He doesn't fundraise for the party or many candidates. Then, when he runs for the presidency, he and his supporters expect some perfect neutrality that hasn't ever existed. People have relationships, they have preferences, and there have always been favorites. Bernie's failing is that he hasn't the time nor interest in building the relationships necessary to get things done. He's had the same failing as a senator.

But even with that, what has the DNC done to stop Bernie? Sure people don't like him, but the DNC rewrote a lot of rules for this cycle specifically to please Bernie and his supporters. Four years ago, somehow the rigged DNC still let Bernie win primaries and caucuses. So far this cycle the rigged DNC has let Bernie win the vote count for both contests. If they're working against Bernie they sure are doing a poor job.

Should We Worry about the Trillion-Dollar Deficit? | Yale Insights

Article about how running up the deficit in during a strong economy with low unemployment is not such a great idea.

Trump suggesting today that he'll remove restrictions on NY state driver's licenses if Cuomo agrees to stop lawsuits looking into Trump Org.

Senator Collins must be concerned about that.

White House is running out of "best people" apparently-Hope Hicks, Reince Priebus and Sean Spicer are being hired for new jobs in the White House

IDK, but there are definitely douchebags on both sides.
The sad thing is that the Bernie Bros really do a disservice to Bernie. He is actually pretty congenial to his opponents. Bernie also has many times accepted the "better". He voted for the ACA and other Democratic measures that might not have lived up to his vision, but was better than status=quo. He also doesn't openly spread the bullcrap conspiracy theories, whereas Trump plays along with his supporters.


Sanders weakness is that he is a socialist. There are people that might have voted against Trump that will never ever ever vote for a socialist. The assertion that he will bring in "new voters" to make up for those losses is at best a theory. I think the same (but opposite affect) of Bloomberg. Bloomberg will pull even deeper from the center-right than any other Democratic candidate, but he is going to drive the far left to vote third party, or just stay home.

Soooo more Quid Pro Quo you say?

Nah, he didn't explicitly say the words Quid Pro Quo.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...-emails-tweets

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk