I’m not a big fan of absolutes or saying anything is “entirely dependent” on any one thing in situations where there are many moving parts. Black and white or all-or-nothing type thinking is a thought trap that is not useful in understanding how complex issues or problems work. That is especially true when it comes to internet discussions.

I listed four or five things that I believe shifted the GA special election in the Democrats’ favor and you simplified it down to “a bad candidate that screws up” is the only way a Democrat can win votes? That is not at all what I said.

Now, to respond to your question, in certain environments or political climates, I believe there are situations that are dependent on the Democrat or Republican needing to be near perfect and/or their opponent needing to be bad and screw up in order for them to win. That is how we end up with things like Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) or Senator Scott Brown (R-MA).

If I’m understanding you correctly, I don’t think our beliefs are very different. I think our views on where the electorate currently sits on the political spectrum and how to shift it towards the left are. And, I think there’s a big risk of the Democrats losing the next few cycles if spending bills like BBB end up appearing like they are too much/big, too quickly right now. I’d rather have a skinny BBB than nothing.

I don't think policy is that important today. But I do think Biden threaded the needle pretty well by appealing to both moderates and progressives.

Also, I thought the lure of a $2000 check was a pretty big deal in that Georgia runoff. Both Democratic candidates used that a lot and I feel giving people money is a pretty good motivator (just like how tax cuts are usually popular).

I guess I feel like people play both sides of it. If there is a policy Democrats pass on that appeals to progressives, you hear people scream about how they couldn't piss off moderates and cost them elections. When there is a policy that appeals to moderates and the Democrats pass on it, we're told policy doesn't really matter and it's not a big deal. I just want to know if moderates care about policy or not.

Nice article on the crux of the issue with Manchin.

I'm not sure I understand his issue though. The bill is for +1 year extension through 2022 and he says he wants to know the true cost of 10 years because odds are that it'll be renewed after 2022.

Great that you brought out this awareness to the general public, play hardball a little longer, have MSM talk about the pros and cons, what the est. $ is etc. But ultimately, state that you will reluctantly vote for BBB with this in it with the understanding that you are unlikely to vote for future extension. Because neither will the GOP when they (likely) win back one or both houses in 2022 ... and you'll still be a key vote.

So wonder if there is something he is really, really negotiating for?

BTW, I would like to know how much this would cost over 10 years. I've seen ranges from $500B to $1.5T+.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/polit...ter/index.html

The idea that a one year window is a problem but a ten year window is fine is dumb.

The idea that costs should be factored into a bill for things the bill doesn't include is dumb.

The idea that Manchin is negotiating in good faith is dumb.

There is a difference. But we've learned over and over that turnout matters a lot in elections. It's not that the left-leaning person will vote Republican, it's that they may not bother to vote. Especially if it now requires them to take a day long trip to the other side of the county to vote in the one polling place left.

Manchin went on Fox to kill the BBB.

"Dems"

Imagine how inept you have to be to get played by Manchin. Anyone with a brain knew that he just wanted the government handouts for his coal business that he got in the "infrastructure" deal.

I'm very much on team, "Manchin/Sinema, not Dems," But holy hell is this going to hurt next November. If all the Dems have is an infrastructure bill, that's going to kill turnout. Even moderates like Spanberger get how damaging this will be to them.

Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer gave up their leverage. A lot of people, even on the right, wanted the infrastructure bill since it was billions on handouts to their donors. Giving them that for nothing was a really dumb political move by the dumbest politicians we have seen.

Good luck in the next election Dems. Guessing people in the suburbs will be ecstatic about losing the child tax credit. Young people will flock to the polls after not receiving help on student loans. And seniors love seeing a massive premium hike.

You also spent the year letting the public know that 1/6 and other massive corruption was not really a big deal.

The way that Biden continues to fail, in the exact opposite way that trump was a failure doesn't make up for anything. Biden is sort of exactly who we thought he was. He's not a good president. Having said that, I'm not sure that Mancin isn't in the exact position that John McCain was in with trump, and playing a similar hand. All this certainly feels like fiddling while the sparks that eventually burn the county down are on the verge of catching fire.

I think the difference is that Manchin got what he wanted which was a handout to his coal company. Republicans didn't buy McCain support.

Even if Biden is a total failure, which he's not - he's done some good things - him being President isn't just good, it's fantastic compared to the alternative of more Trump.


I don't think it'll matter much at all to the midterms.

Manchin still has the leverage of being able to switch to the GOP. The administration’s hand is incredibly weak. Now I still think they managed to play a weak hand badly. But this was never going to be an LBJ or FDR type situation.

I feel pretty certain this is Manchin’s last term as a senator. I still think it’s unlikely that he switches parties. He and his family have a pretty strong legacy in West Virginia. I can see him running for governor again in ‘24. If he does switch parties, I think he will wait to see what happens in the mid-terms. If he becomes the 51st Republican, he will lose the power he currently wields, and there is no way the state GOP doesn’t run someone far more conservative for senate in ‘24.

All Manchin cared about was getting millions for his coal business. It is why smart people tied the infrastructure bill to BBB. Once you gave Manchin his handout, you lost all leverage.

Manchin was never going to flip parties while his personal fortune was on the line.

His presidency will be a failure. Only accomplishment was a short term relief bill. He either bailed out or botched most of his campaign promises.

He's got one year to actually accomplish something with no leverage and an approval rating in the toilet. Good luck!

As politics become more and more polarized anyone like Biden who tacks to the center and tries to build bridges across partisan lines is screwed. He has been a very weak president but with the starting hand he was dealt I’m equally not sure who would be any better.

I honestly don’t know how a Dem can be successful in todays political climate. They have been playing checkers for too long while the GOP has been playing power chess.

Things like BBB not being passed are not primarily Biden's fault. Similarly, the relief bill shouldn't primarily be credited to him either. Both of those require Congress.

I consider Biden a moderate success because to me the relevant comparison is what has he done compared to the alternative. The alternative is Trump. I'd prefer he were more successful and effective, but there's a limit to how much you can do that with a divided Congress and a mostly stonewalling opposition party.

There's often a lot to be said for not getting much done. Sometimes people who get a lot done, get a lot done in the direction of making the situation a lot worse.

BBB is partially his fault. He held the leverage over some Senators and gave it up. Just a terrible political move.

We'll see what the public things of him in a year. Have a feeling we'll be laughing at someone's takes.

Why would we be laughing at anyone's takes? I've said multiple times that I think Democrats won't do well in the midterms. That would generally be the case even if the public likes a President, but I also don't think it will move a great deal based on what Biden does or doesn't get done. It will be mostly current events in the months leading up to election + a bias in favor of the out of power party that determines it, as is the historical pattern.

The historical pattern is that the President's popularity and accomplishments play a role in midterms. Most of our recent Presidents have been ineffective early in their first term (Reagan, Obama, Clinton, Trump) and saw their approval ratings in the toilet. Bush was incredibly popular going into the 2002 midterms and subsequently won seats.

The notion that nothing you do as President matters is probably why the Democrats keep getting squashed in politics.

It's not that nothing Presidents do matter. It does matter, but they're often given credit for the economy, for what Congress did, for things that they have no control over in some cases and not much control over in others.

As to the historical pattern, Bush Sr. had better approval than Bush Jr., whose approval didn't have a whole lot to do with his achievements and had more to do with the rally-round the flag after 9-11 (and declined afterwards in almost uninterrupted fashion until after the midterms). Bush Sr. still lost seats in the midterm. Not as many as usual.

Presidential approval does matter, absolutely. But presidential approval is often not tied to what the president actually does. It largely tied to factors beyond their control, and likability generally matters more than actual accomplishments IMO. Obama's popularity was nearly break-even at midterms, yet they got clobbered much worse than presidents whose popularity was lower.

Not to mention the Rs were on Fox News saying they would not confirm any judges once they take control of the senate.

Just seems like a catch-22. If they do nothing it is fine because they would lose anyway. If they do something, they might upset voters and lose. Heads you win, tails I lose.

You'll get to see that scenario play out in a year. But take solace in the fact that the sanctity of the filibuster remains until 2025 when Republicans remove it to pass a bill they want.

I would still advise them to do everything they can to further their agenda, don't get me wrong. Governing out of fear is a bad idea, and I think turnout is the best weapon. Do your best to keep your base excited about voting for you, and then run on those actions in the next opportunity; i.e. '24 even if you know you're likely to lose the midterms no matter what. It's a bad hand regardless but I'd rather campaign on 'we brought these issues but the other party voted us down, put more of us in office so they can't block it next time' than I would on 'we knew we couldn't do what we promised so we didn't even try'.

BBB will be a big loss and will come up in mid-terms. I do agree that Dems were looking at losing in the mid-terms even before and its arguable if this will really make it that worse.

The near term economy (by mid-terms) and how well we are doing on Covid will be primary (short of another big conflict somewhere like a Taiwan) evaluations for Biden and Dems. BBB plays into it but although it would have been great for regular people, unsure if it would have really helped or hurt the economy in the near term.

So if I was Biden, definitely try a revisit with Manchin to see if it will change his mind. I like to think Manchin is calling the Progressives' bluff on the Child Tax Credit. If stripping it out will satisfy Manchin, then Biden should do it. The Progressives will cry about it but they'll get (swag) 90% of $1.75T and they'll begrudgingly concede.

But in parallel, plan on smaller things and coordinate with Fed policy on inflation etc. Much of today's inflation is because of supply chain issues as a result of the pandemic. Unemployment rate is going down but its still a tight labor market. Inflation is no longer a transitory BS and will still be noticeable by mid-terms.

Covid response is all Biden now, he owns it. No more blaming Trump for the poor response. I do think he is doing okay but he is not doing enough effectively (ramp up a better campaign).

I think his foreign policy is doing well but domestic policy is obviously center stage. I'd toss in immigration reform as another low hanging fruit to get a nice win. It won't contain the make-all-the-illegals-legal but a nice guest worker program and increased legal immigration would be great.

Bottom-line. Biden is in a world of hurt. His report card is around a C+ or B- right now, which means I would seriously consider someone else in 3 years.

I read somewhere there were more Covid deaths under Biden than Trump. Bottom line, not yet.

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

In the grid, I did monthly. If you add up from Jan 2021 to now = 415,816 deaths out of 801,243. But of course, not all of Jan is on Biden.

From Jan = 415,816
From Feb = 310,412
From April = 238,775

Personally, Biden starts owning it in April. Politically and messaging for elections, it'll be Feb. Not quite half but we have another year to go and Biden could exceed more deaths than Trump.

Yet roughly 80% of those deaths are republicans. Dying to own the libs.

What exactly were Bidens option to influence Governors who did not want to cooperate with anything ? What were Bidens options to prevent Delta from coming along ?

This isn't a sporting event :confused:

(Plus, IF one wanted to do such a, to me quite silly, comparison, purely 'mathematically' one would have to discount Jan/Feb '20 and then do a "deaths per month/day in office" rather than take 10 months of Trump vs whatever many months of Biden)

You can put blame on him for not sending more vaccines out globally to poorer countries or helping with the patent stuff that is stifling vaccine production in those countries as well. Omicron is perhaps a result of that incompetence. But many other countries did the same thing and it requires a global effort.

Still not sure you can really put much blame on him for Covid situation here. If 30% of your country is pro-Covid and actively wants to increase cases, your options are pretty limited in a free country.

Omicron was inevitable. It's a virus. It mutates. It wasn't going to be kept from evolving. It's Evolution Baby.

Those are entirely different things than doing some death-count-evaluation. Quite honestly i have little idea what Biden actually did or didn't do, could or couldn't do (as said i barely am able to follow the basic stuff as reported in Germany, obviously the finer points of US Covid policy aren't really featured, it's just not really as relevant, not even a good indicator. So yeah, Governors holding many of of the cards as to what they do or don't is about the extent of my possible contribution ;)

Biden doesn't need to influence "governors" so unsure what that comment is? And its not Biden preventing Delta (thought to originate from India) or Omicron (thought to originate from South Africa - tbc). It's how to get more US vaccinated.

When there is change (vaccinations, new normal etc.) there is a need for strategy and change/communications campaigns to gain acceptance of that change (get vaccinated, wear masks etc.) with the people impacted (regular people).

There are many ways a campaign can happen - come up with options on what could work, come up with strategy, execute on the strategy, measure how successful it is etc. If acceptance is not as high as expected after a period of time, then finetune your campaign and do other things.

One of my biggest beefs is I do not see much evidence of a campaign other than primarily Biden-CDC-NIH talking about it. This may have worked and gotten the easy ones already, but we are talking about remaining 30-38%. In other post, I said what I saw was


I see more erectile dysfunction medication ads and Verizon commercials than I see "get vaccinated" ads/commercials.

So yeah, whoever Biden has hired to advise him on change/communication strategy sucks. He should get other people and try different ways. One of the obvious options is to flood the market with contemporary influencers (Taylor Swift? Dolly Parton? NASCAR or NFL players? etc.). A modernize version of "here's your brains on drugs" This Is Your Brain...This Is Your Brain On Drugs - 80s Partnership For A Drug Free America - YouTube. Whatever ... anything is better than Fauci telling us something he has told us zillions of times. He was effective at one time, but not so much now.

So yeah, figure out some new champions, new change agents, new approach. We have approx 62% vaccinated twice, about 73% vaccinated once. Work on the 11% that were vaccinated once and figure out what it takes to get them vaccinated a second time.

These people have been indoctrinated into a cult for years and are comfortably situated in a feedback loop that tells them what they want to hear. Many have been willing to toss family and friends aside to maintain their fealty to one man. Nearly a million dead in this country, likely some they know, and they haven't wavered.

A fancy TV commercial isn't doing shit. Neither are any of the other ideas you or anyone else can come up with. They have different goals.

I think that might move the needle a little, but to the tune of a couple of percentage points, at most, and that's probably optimistic. And, honestly, that's probably with a micro-targeted campaign at a couple of smaller populations with hesitancy, though availability and accessibility in those communities would probably do the same thing.

But there's no "this is your brain on drugs" for 30 seconds or even dozens of times for 30s that's overriding from hours of Joe Rogan, months of Facebook, and a lifetime's full of confirmation bias for huge swaths of the population.

One of my best friends in college went full anti-vax and a couple of us close friends from college have spent hours on the phone (we all live in different parts of the country now) trying every avenue we can think of to try and change his mind. A lot of this has been sympathetically listening to his discussions with an open mind: he's not some luddite dullard - he has some valid concerns but his judgement of the odds and risks of the options is ludicrously bad and fueled by his huge mistrust of authority so he puts way too much weight in bad sources. Some of it has been trying to explain the science or put good information in front of him. None of it has worked and is likely not going to work. I mean, hell, when two very common refrains from the families of COVID deaths are "tell me what my family member is really dying from" and "the hospital killed my family member" - I don't know what changes that. If hours of talking to people won't, I don't think a targeted ad from someone less personal will.

I've also spent time talking to coworkers, again, who were open-mindedly asking concerns. I spent over an hour in the parking lot of a Home Depot one day when we were passing off the team on-call phone discussing this with one of my vaccine-hesistant coworkers. He was acting genuinely curious and I was trying to answer questions the best I could and pointing him in the direction of sources I couldn't answer. Being combative rarely changes people's minds. I think he talked to me because I'm viewed as reasonably sharp and a good place to get a second opinion on the team so I didn't want to betray that trust. I know another of my coworkers, who is a close personal friend of his, has also talked to him about it and tried to get him onboard.

You know what got some of my coworkers and neighbors to finally get the shot in the last 2 months? When CMS or OSHA threatened their job. That was it. That was about the only thing that was going to get them onboard. One of my family members works at a hospital - they have about 20K employees and 5K were still unvaccinated before the mandate (SSS of 1 hospital but 20K employees seems like a decent sample here). The month before the mandate, 1K got vaccinated or provided proof of insurance. So, even with the threat of losing a well-paying job, a population that should be pre-disposed to get the shot to begin with, and vaccines given /at the place of employment/ (or could get them elsewhere if proof was provided) - that only moved 5% of the population. Another 20% of the population were willing to risk it all for an 11th hour stay that they magically got.

Trump's already said it a couple of times, but it's always in his Trumpian divisive and dismissive way that's always to play for boos so I'm not sure how much stock I put in it. The long and short is that I just don't think there's a message that's getting to these people. And it's not for a lack of trying or variety of messages.

SI

The people eating horse dewormer will be easy to convince using facts and logic.

If Covid lasts much longer, I would like to see insurance companies implement larger premiums for people that refuse vaccinations (or if that is a penalty, "discounts" for people that receive vaccinations). One of my biggest concerns continues to be the strain that this puts on health care workers and facilities and these people that refuse to be vaccinated are driving up premium prices for all of us and occupying beds that could otherwise be used for illnesses, diseases, and injuries that there are not simple vaccines available to take. I have a family member that is a hospitalist (internal medicine) and he sent a group text over the weekend telling us all not to get sick or injured over the next 6-8 weeks because there are not going to be beds available.

I don't get why people are taking family members to the hospital if they just think that the hospital kills them. I mean...fine! Stay the fuck at home. Die on your own terms and ease up a little on the burden on the health care workers/system.

Bidens welcome a new German Shepherd puppy, Commander, to the White House.

I don't disagree in general. However, the 11% of 1 shotters have at least shown they are willing to listen "some". Get a consulting firm that is knowledgeable about moving the dial with them. Who are the most influential tik-tokers, who are the contemporary version GOP stars that have gotten vaccinated etc. I can tell you it ain't Fauci or others from CDC-NIH.


I agree that risking one's job is a driver. I do wish Biden had mandated vaccinations for military earlier, it was sending mixed messages.


There is no doubt there are those that will never get shots. China is 75% vaccinated and +10% with 1-shot (as of Nov 19). Heck, if the authoritarian government of China can't get to close 100%, it tells you its beyond just "Trumpism". My guess is overall "distrust". Singapore is at 87%. Don't think you can say those 2 countries had vaccine access issues.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data

Vaccine access in the US was a problem early on, not any more. Trumpers continue to be an issue for sure. But it's more than that simplistic argument. Why are black vaccination rates at 51%? (Again, my guess is overall "distrust"). Figure that out and move the dial some more.

Latest Data on COVID-19 Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity | KFF

Bottom line to me. If it's not working, strategize and try something else. Let's try influencers in social media, TV etc. as ubiquitous as ED and Verizon commercials (e.g. I would love to see Jay-Z and Beyonce do a vaccination ad like what they've done for Tiffanys). Let's have all insurers, in no uncertain terms, tell people their premiums will go up (e.g. like smokers), let's try different consulting companies with different ideas etc. Do a focus group etc.

Not sure how real this is but a little hope for something.

Manchin to Dems: Redo the whole thing, maybe I'll vote for it - POLITICO

He changes his stance no matter what they do. At this point, maybe he should be the one who puts a bill forth that he would vote for. Having him move the goalposts every other week till he can run out the clock till midterms hasn't been working.

Yeah, you can't trust anything he says. He certainly hasn't previously said he won't vote for anything unless it went through committees. If he had said that this would have all been over in June.

Getting judges through and holding committee chairs means they have to keep him, but he's as thin-skinned as he is egotistical. I expect if he runs again he'll get killed by the GOP candidate on his statements about WV's poor using government money for drugs and hunting trips.

They might have better odds seeing if they could peel Murkowski off, tbh.

I can't tell if you're joking anymore.

It's too late now but the easiest way to do it would have been to offer a $5000 stimulus check to everyone who gets vaccinated.

You shouldn't even try. We live in 2 different worlds and we were ignoring each other (unless we want to entertain FOFC when it inevitably gets into personal insults).

Manchin’s new statements about now wanting this to spend months in committee shows what he really wants. He wants to keep being the center of attention. Hey he Dems want this passed and behind them. They want to do something other than kiss his ring every morning. He, of course, does not want that. That—more than the substance of the bill-seems to be the real hold up. That means even the Dems were to say “You know what? We just can’t/won’t pass anything,” that still wouldn’t satisfy him. There is no endgame b/c one of the players won’t let anyone stop playing.

tl;dr The most powerful man in Congress is an attention whore.

it's not like McConnell has to travel very far to suck his dick and keep him in the fold anyway.

You are an idiot if you think Bubba Redneck in Bibb County is going to change his mind on vaccinations because of a youtube or instagram influencer. I hear commercials on the radio sometimes, but you'd be better taking that money you would spend on advertisements and just offer it tax free to the bubbas.

Yep. I said something similar early on, but it needed to happen before it became too deeply rooted in politics. It should have been one of the first things the Biden administration did. Fox News would have had a hell of a time convincing people they don't need a stimulus check.

I dunno, when places offered $100 to get the vaccine, the right wing media went ape shit, saying they are trying to buy you off and if it actually worked they wouldn't have to bribe you get it.

I read somewhere that the incentives really didn't work. Maybe there's a high enough number that they would, but what was tried didn't move the needle.

This is where Trump being Trump really hurt in the transition between administrations (beyond the coup attempt, of course). In a normal situation, the incoming administration would have likely been better about continuing the Trump administration's messaging about the vaccine (which, remember, they were highly touting Trump's success in getting a vaccine near approval in the run-up to the election and month afterward). But given the way the aftermath of the election unfolded and the deep political divide, Biden pretty much went on his own messaging, pulled Fauci out of his cave, etc., and basically appealed to everyone as Americans, hoping that would work on its own. In an alternate reality, a President would have been more willing to credit the outgoing President and work hand-in-hand in trying to get all of their supporters on either side to take the vaccine.

But of course, that didn't happen here.

On a related note, I keep hearing what I believe to be a phony argument about most people not rejecting the vaccine, but the mandates. And I'm trying to piece together a timeline but it's been more difficult than I thought it would be when I googled it. My recollection is that vaccines were doing well with the public until around the J&J debacle and that for a couple of months after that, things leveled off. It wasn't until several months of slow vaccine numbers and the summer surge that Biden began with the mandate talk and eventual action. But, I may be remembering it all incorrectly. Does anyone have a general timeline? My initial gut response is that the "mandate" thing is BS - most people who wouldn't take it, objected months before a mandate was put in place. The "I'm not against the vaccine per se, but I'll be damned if the government is going to force me to take it" line of reasoning seems to ignore the reality of how it all unfolded. In my mind...

Yeah, but the people unvaccinated now weren't part of the public it was doing well with back then. Or else they'd be vaccinated ;)

I really don't think J&J played a big part as it always was going to be a marginally used vaccine in the US. Of course such things got scandalized, but i really doubt it had much effect. Over here we had similar Arguments re: Astrazeneca, yet polls/surveys show pretty clearly the effect didn't go beyond mild annoyance. From Folks that wanted to get vaccinated. Those who didn't get vaccinated name a host of other things before any specific issues like this.

I think specific things and even the mandates had the result of a similar group simply getting louder, not actually bigger. That groundwork was laid very early.

Of course there was/is a large contingent NOT acting out a political/ideological determination but simply not being well targeted/informed (again, there simply are social 'determinators' to who uses which avenues of information and how likely they end up at which type of information or disinformation) and genuinely unsure. Others are simply indifferent. Those are the one you 'get' with measures built on practicality. This can range from getting info from family, family doctors etc to, yes, getting something out of it to rebalance the pro and con scales.

Of course some of this is more less prevalent in this or that region.

Imo the one best thing though would have been uniform messaging ranging across the political spectrum. It simply is very clear in the US but als in Germany. Only difference is scale, due to us being a multi-party system. When i look at Scandinavia, Neth/Bel, Italy, New Zealand i see staunch opposition parties (including ones far on the right) at least to some degree get on board when it came to this one issue.

Possible. I just remember seeing some charts that showed the percentage of people getting the vaccine and where it slowed up was right when the J&J thing hit. Could be a coincidence that we reached the point where all of the definite YES on the vaccine people had gotten theirs around the same time as the J&J pause. But I think the argument would be that it caused skepticism of all the vaccines, not just J&J.

It felt like it was all just a part of the goalpost moving where you have a "politically agreeable" answer whenever someone wanted to challenge your beliefs. You can probably scan through the COVID thread (of course it's going to take days to do that) if you want the whole rundown.

But I believe the timeline was something like this:

Generic bundle of excuses: My immune system is strong, I don't know what's in it, every conspiracy from big pharma to 5G, et al - those have always been popular and, in my experience, have mostly boiled down to some combo of "I hate needles", "petulant teen I don't wanna", and "eff the libs/spite the libs".

(Winter 2021) I can't get one! (legit issue)

(Spring 2021) It's too new - I'm going to wait until everyone else gets it
(Spring 2021, also) See?!? I told you the vaccine was dangerous (post J&J)

(Summer 2021, pre-Delta) It's not FDA approved - I'm going to wait until that (like they cared about an FDA they don't trust)

(Fall 2021, Delta) The FDA rushed it and it's an inside job

The grumbling about mandates has been around for as long as I can remember. My coworkers said that a lot. I think some genuinely believe it while others, it's just code for "Hell yes, I took the shot because I don't want to die and it's a rationally selfish things to do. But I need something to signal to my red brethren that I'm not ok with it, especially since it's Sleepy Joe saying to do it".

For people who haven't had their shot, of course they hate the idea of mandates. I know I've talked a bunch about our backwards incentive system here, but I mean it boils down to this: God forbid those who won't even do the bare minimum for themselves, much less society, actually be restricted from participating in said society.

SI

GOP legislature in GA takes over the Lincoln County elections board.

New election board proposes closing 6 of 7 polling locations.

I'm sure it's entirely unconnected that Lincoln County is 1/3 black.

As an aside: The 'sceptics' talking point in Germany of "not wanting mRNA vaccine" (and agitators focussing on attacking that aspect of it) is getting put to the test in Europe with Novavax being approved. First impression ? Almost every crazy person i checked or know of immediately went and put out stark warnings about how that vaccine is also gene therapy (and yes, it is not actually a classic inactivated vaccine) and just as bad anyway. Plus more crazy shit, much along the same lines of Pfizer.

Last 'obstacle' ? The Valneva vaccine, which is as close to 'classic' as any in the pipeline. Of course, it's CEO has been publicly stating people should not wait but take any of the available vaccines with himself having taken 3 mRNA doses. So you just know how that is going to play in crazytown ;)

Interestingly, 69-30 (3100-1400) for Trump in 2020. Could be a trial balloon. Could also be that you take out all the polling locations except where it's the whitest and that margin goes from 1700 to 2500, say, 3000-500.

SI

Everyone has a price.

In a tight election, every vote suppressed counts.

They only need to suppress what, 11000 votes? Seems like you might pull a couple thousand here and there in small districts and that's that.

Wonder how people are going to react when they realize that the child tax credit payments they have been getting since ~July are pre-payments on the upcoming tax return. I suspect that is going to hurt Biden approval ratings as well, even though it was well known by anyone that reads.

I made this comment not knowing what Biden was going to say either this day or the next. But Biden gave the Trump administration credit and all of a sudden, Trump is out there saying how he can't really be too hard on Biden now and he really appreciates him saying that and how surprised he was, and now he's out there openly encouraging people to get the vaccine and booster.

And I wish to God someone would have done this in January or February. Use his personality traits for good, for once! If you credit or flatter him, he's a different person. We could have used this 10 months ago. Instead, you get a Twitter thread like this. The comments in here are just ridiculous. 99.9% of those who are anti-vaxx are too far gone to save - to the point where they are turning on the original Mr. Covid Ain't Nothing But the China Flu. Sad!

Donald Trump: 'The Vaccine is one of the greatest achievements of mankind' 'All three vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J) are very good' 'The vaccines work - If you take the vaccine you are protected' 'People aren't dying when they take the vaccine' pic.twitter.com/fU8q1sdMda

— Popper (@Kukicat7) December 22, 2021

This, of course, being the same tax system where, about every other month in pre-pandemic time, I had to explain to seemingly intelligent people that "being in another tax bracket" doesn't mean that all of your income is taxed at a higher rate - just the income above a certain level. So getting more a higher wage was always good. There's not some random number you want to avoid where suddenly you're taxed more and actually make less than before. There's a fairly simple chart if you just Google "tax brackets" that will explain this. However, it's also kept somewhat intentionally vague because the H&R Blocks and GOPs of the world want you to think it's a lot more complicated and not a simple progressive tax system.

SI

It happening earlier would almost certainly have made no difference unfortunately. Trump has made a number of pro-vaccine statements in recent months, and been booed on at least a couple occasions for doing so. The people who are anti-vaccine aren't largely anti-vaccine because of Trump; they're anti-vaccine in spite of Trump.

I guess that's my point. If those people didn't have 6-8+ months to harden their positions, maybe it would have made a difference. Many comments in there are calling him a traitor, feeling betrayed, etc. They clearly felt like he was on the anti-vaxx side. He was quiet about it and certainly didn't push back in interviews to the extent he just did. It's no coincidence that it happened the day after Biden gave him some credit.

I disagree.

Most Qidiots probably think the deep state has gotten to Trump.

The most amazing thing is that if Trump had done this in the first place, he'd still be president.

Hell, his true believers would probably be clamoring for a third term.

His biggest fuck-up was dealing with COVID, it was beyond his capability because he couldn't bully it, he could only try to subvert it's impact and of course that failed.

I feel nothing for anti-vaxxers.

And also, he downplayed it so early and often that he couldn't allow himself to reverse course. He put all of his eggs in the "keep the economy open and get the vaccine done ASAP" basket.

I appreciate that clip in a couple of ways. Like you said: it's amazing to see people using Trump's narcissism for good. There's also a bit of schadenfreude of watching, a media member (nominally), get frustrated talking to him, only this time it's someone on the far right. She keeps trying to get red meat on vaccines and mandates, only he totally throws her for a curve by talking about how great he is and how awesome his vaccine is. Then, whenever she keeps trying to pivot to mandates, he keeps slithering back to his vaccine as the super awesomest achievement in the history of mankind ever. For those of us who watch normal media, this is all too familiar.

SI

That's completely unknowable, but IMO unlikely.


Right, but they've thought that on other issues and would have thought so anyway. Even while he was President there were people in that realm saying he was just saying X or Y to mollify certain people and he'd come out with the real truth in a few months once he had full control of the deep state etc. Ofc it never happened, but the point is Qidiots as you put them are going to find whatever rationalization they need to and it has nothing to do with actual facts or what Trump says when.

Trump was never really a conservative until he ran for president and successfully created this character. After he won, I naively/desperately hoped that he would basically just be the celebrity Trump again instead of the far-right icon Trump. But he went all in. But he obviously understands the concept of vaccines, and that fact seeps through every once in a while, though it always seems like an accident when it does, before he gets back on script.

He desperately wants credit for what he knows was a significant achievement for his administration, but he also needs the cheers and applause his script gets from his base. It will be interesting to see how willing he is to push back against the boos and negative attention from that base. It seems like knows vaccines is a winning issue with the majority of Americans and he's trying to ease his base into acceptance. I don't see it working and I think he gives up fairly quickly if it doesn't start getting positive results.

trump is the pilot who made a very bad landing and wants credit for saving everyone's life.

His denial and subsequent attacks on the science community, efforts to bully people into making him look good and eventually, eventually deciding the vaccine was the only real alternative don't make him a hero.

Any good person would've done the latter, without the former. He's 100% a fucking loser, terrible leader and intolerable human.

He may give it up and stop talking about it, but he was lauding the vaccine effort when Warp Speed was going on and he was still President, and he's said positive things about it afterwards - it's not like this is new.

Nobody has to like Trump or think he's a hero to say he's right about the vaccine and deserves a measure of credit for it. Low-hanging fruit that any President probably would have done? Absolutely, but many Presidents esp. him have screwed up so much of the easy things. We can say that and still say he should be in jail, should have been impeached, is one of the worst presidents the US has ever had, a danger to democracy ... all of those things are simultaneously true.

Yup, keep at it Biden. Don't give up yet and (maybe also) start talking with some moderate GOP.

Democrats look to scale back Biden bill to get it passed | TheHill

Biden should be criticized for lack of testing kits and scalability. I appreciate his candor and acceptance of responsibility. But its really how well (or not) we respond to the uptick of omi that require hospitalization that he will be judged on.

I don't think he said this in his speech last week but would be reassuring to hear that they are prepared to get the hospital ship; field hospitals; have all these great therapeutics, ventilators etc. ready to deploy at moments notice.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/28/polit...ure/index.html

Absolutely. Biden owns this completely. How after almost two years of this can they be so unprepared?

I mean, if a bunch of Brandons refuse to vaccinate, refuse to mask, and feel like it is their civic duty to torpedo the country, how does he own it?

Because there are plenty of non-Brandon's blacks and hispanics are adversely impacted.

The lack of testing doesn't just affect unvaxed people. When other countries have been sending rapid test to their citizens for months, but I can't find a rapid test within 30 miles of me, that is how he owns it.

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Agreed. Fully vaxxed daughter woke up with symptoms on Christmas Eve and couldn't get a test. Had to tell in-laws to turn around and not come for the holidays. Luckily, on Sunday a doctor's office was open and she was negative.

We are hitting highest numbers of positives ever, and I guarantee is largely underreported number. People taking home tests aren't able to get confirmations. There are also many that have no way of getting test whatsoever. The only local public testing site for two large counties here were sending people away, with a gigantic parklot pouring over out into the street. Again, this has been going on for nearly two years and we have one public testing site for two counties.

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Testing is on him. Same with the patent stuff. My guess is they didn't foresee so many people actively fighting against the vaccine when it came out.

I've been critical of Biden on a lot of things, but I don't think the Covid response is high on the list. You have 30% of the country actively trying to sabotage the response and spread the virus as much as they can. There is only so much you can do from the executive side to fight that.

Son is back in his apt. Said he woke up feeling bad and with fever. Tried to get tested and he said the car lines were really long so he gave up. Luckily work is all remote this week.

The rapid anti-gen tests are about <$20 and the more accurate PCR tests are about $80+. I read if you get positive on rapid anti-gen tests, then you should take the PCR to confirm.

We did buy some N95 masks a couple months ago to stock up. In hindsight, we probably should have bought some test kits to have handy. We are all vaccinated and boosted, so we aren't panicked about it but knowing we are positive would stop us from going out for X days.

Putin asked to speak to Biden. Unsure how unusual that is but assume that is a good sign. From what I've read, Putin wants guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO.

All things considered, I think that is a small price to pay to defer this "crisis". Maybe say okay without saying okay, tell Putin there is an informal agreement among NATO members not to pursue/grant it anytime soon. There may come a time (e.g. with Putin leaves office) to pursue that.

Love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/29/polit...all/index.html

Basically not much of anything happened other than reiteration of positions and setting the "tenor for upcoming" talks.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/polit...all/index.html

I'm a solid liberal, but I can see how the tenor of my fellow liberals can be exhausting and off-putting.

We had some bad weather last night in NC--worse thunderstorms than we are used to. And several people are reveling in the fact that "last night changed everything" and that "climate change is here" and "I don't think that things will ever go back. Get used to last night, because it is the new normal."

The thing is, I agree with them with the fundamental idea that climate change is real and is human caused, and is a huge threat to humanity. And I still want to yell at them for reacting this way to a bad storm. I can't even imagine how they come off to conservatives or climate skeptics.

Especially when we’ve been telling climate change deniers that weather is not climate on -30 degree days when they scream something about Al Gore and global warming.

Yes, exactly. My parents visited us in KY for the week leading up to Christmas and you don't know how many times I had to hear my dad mock global warming because it was 50-70 degrees most of their visit.

Devin Nunes is no longer a Congressman as of today. :)

Progress!

And Don Jr, and Ivanka subpoened by NY AG James today too, Happy New Year!

Glad I don't read tweets or facebook posts from people in those circles, and I do hope there isn't much damage in other parts of the state and those without power get it back quickly, but we had unseasonably warm and pretty amazing weather for the last few weeks (until a couple really humid last couple days preceding this storm), one bad thunderstorm essentially, and now it's looking like high 40's & sunny for the rest of the week & I'm about to go for a run outside. That definitely sounded really aggressive last night for a winter thunderstorm and I made sure to do food shopping yesterday in case the roads stayed icy all day today, but it's North Carolina we get thunderstorms 50x/year.

Kind of a weird story.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-fired-missile

Fortunately, the Dems are going to fix votin- hahahaha... now I'm sad

SI