Not that simple. Polling says that Latino Catholics are more socially conservative, but far more economically liberal than American Catholics. Further, they're more likely to vote their economic beliefs than their social beliefs.

Now I think there a constituency in there for the GOP, but they've pissed that away for a while being so racist curious.

I don't think this was the big story he (and Rush and Scott Baio)) had in mind:

Drudge, Limbaugh Fall for Twitter Joke About Postal Worker Destroying Trump Ballots - The Daily Beast

Fuck the New Mexico GOP.

(and yes, I triple checked to make sure it was real)

New Mexico Republicans Send Ominous Flyer to State Voters : snopes.com

"If you don't vote for us, YOUR NEIGHBORS WILL KNOW"

Those kind of mailers have been making the rounds the last few elections. They are supposedly very effective.

Democrats did it up in Wisconsin back in 2012. It was big during the Walker recall too. Cruz did it in Iowa during the most recent primary. Bunch of other cases too.

If you can increase the voter turnout by 8% in a particular area just through these mailers, that's a huge advantage if your targeting is done right.

I'm guessing #FeeltheTrump or #FeltbyTrump didn't take off?

FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS! :D

Obama tells Trump to 'stop whining' about election - The Washington Post

We're gonna whine so much you're gonna get tired of whining pic.twitter.com/gTHpTgIVZB

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) August 14, 2016

"We're gonna whine so much you're gonna get tired of whining"

Too late.

The best whining. Tremendous whining.

Not that it matters anymore, but...

Six people are now corroborating the story Natasha Stoynoff wrote in People about Trump. https://t.co/3wTKxiOa1r

— Gideon Resnick (@GideonResnick) October 18, 2016

Yeah, but did those 6 "witnesses" also have 6 witness to witness their second hand witnessing? And look at those witnesses. Do you think they could witness anything? I don't think so, nu uh.

IDGAF Obama is best Obama.

Yep. Which, also, interestingly is Church orthodoxy (economic liberalism).

@DaveBautista I have a question for you...give your endorsement to @realDonaldTrump ???? #peace

— gemma@maña (@gemmagema43) October 17, 2016

FUUUUUCK NOOOOOO!!!! Like HELLLL FUCKING NOOOOOO!!! HELL 2 the FUCKINGGGG 2 the NOOOOOOOO!!! HELL 2 the FUCKING FUUUUUCKKKK NOOOOOOOOO! ✌🏼️😊 https://t.co/KQaiPTLmyP

— Dave Bautista (@DaveBautista) October 17, 2016

So you're saying there's a chance?

Ugh Drudgereport, taking the National Enquirer as gospel. Like he was ever credible, but this is a whole new level of batshit crazy.

"It was right about John Edwards that one time so any time it tears a Democrat down or supports a Republican, it must be right!"

I mean, the National Enquirer is just as reputable as the Drudge Report.

Loved Obama's statement today, but the video of Democratic PAC operatives admitting to fomenting violence at Trump rallies at the behest of the DNC & Clinton Campaign will not help with the people who think the election and media is rigged.

I have trouble trusting anything James O Keefe is involved in.

Oh he definitely died. Whoever is posing as McCain in 2016 is not the same person as 2008 or 2000.

Trump is bringing Obama's half brother to the debate. Because the last debate stunt worked out so well for him.

Yeah, that whole I love my brother but he didn't come here and give us enough stuff after he was elected and let us all down, argument is going to go over really well. I guess that means that Trump will totally spend millions in Africa on Obama's brothers community so he can say that he's got his endorsement.

John Harwood on Twitter: "in NBC/WSJ poll, Obama job rating among those saying they voted early: 68% approve, 29% disapprove"

If early voting is up (and I'll include the necessary caveat), the polling is right, this could be very very good for Clinton

The PredictIt election map has Clinton winning with 340 EV's. Lots of money to be made if you think the polls are inaccurate because everyone you know is voting Trump.

https://www.predictit.org/Home/Election2016

Me too, but when the operatives involved are resigning and being fired that's pretty telling. And I'm not partisan enough to think only one side is doing it (though Trump may actually be the one candidate with such a non-existent ground game he can't pull off any dirty tricks!), but when we talk about and bemoan the polarization of politics in this country, this is exactly what's feeding it. Whether it's Trump partisans with the groping allegations or Hillary partisans with the Podesta emails or this political subterfuge the response is to attack and discredit the messenger instead of admitting that yeah, their candidate did something messed up. And so both sides dig their heels deeper in their echo chambers instead of substantively having any discussion.

PS I get that it's hidden cameras & I assume some lying is involved to get in the door, but how dumb do you have to be to brag about doing that stuff to someone you presumably don't know that well?

Real muricans don't use PredictIt.

If you've paid attention in the last 8 years, you've seen conservative operatives perform hatchet jobs on videos they've taken in order to make what the subjects say fit a #narrative.

PLANNED PARENTHOOD CHOPS UP BABIES AND SELLS THEM FOR SPARE PARTS RABBLE RABBLE RAWR

as, y'know, an example.

It's a thing that's happened on multiple occasions before, and the fuckery involved took down ACORN despite no wrongdoing and resulted in a bunch of conservatives in GOP-controlled states going DEFUND PLANNED PARENTHOOD EVEN THOUGH INVESTIGATIONS BY GOP ATTORNEYS GENERAL ARE FINDING NO WRONGDOING BECAUSE THIS IS SOMETHING I BELIEVE IN MY HEART IS TRUE DESPITE ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY.

A hatchet job video making it look like Trump protesters are trying to spark riots to embarrass Trump? Look, maybe it's legit and they really did do those things, but the evidence of the last 8 years suggests that Ronald Reagan got it wrong: verify BEFORE you trust.

The one that loves Gadaffi?

Well I'm not sure about that because some Real 'Muricans are keeping the price of Clinton winning New York down to about 92 cents, which is lower than you can get most other out of play states. It is an easy small profit.

Well....one more debate for Trump to maybe get some better cards???

What DO we expect from Trump tonight?

Based on his reuse of his same lines from debate 1 in debate 2, I'd expect more of the same. Along with an attempt to always get the last word in. I'm really not sure what to expect from the moderator other than you are likely to see a significant number of uncomfortable questions for Clinton and Trump jumping in on them like he's looking for the punchline on SNL. He wants that soundbite moment. He really has no interest in debating policy at this point. His goal is to make Clinton look bad. This whole thing is very personal for him. I really think that he believes that he can win with this strategy, and he refuses to change his course from anything else.

Well Trump is obviously using the jbmagic method of winning. He's going to keep doubling his bet every time he makes an ass of himself and eventually he'll get the better cards you mentioned and win the big pot.

Shitter's full!!!!!!

Witness: DNC tour bus dumps human waste into storm drain - KCTV5

Congrats on predicting this correctly. She definitely handled it well.

More "Hillary is sick and dying," which Donald will probably sniffle his way through.

At Previous Debates, Melania Trump and Bill Clinton Shook Hands. Not Anymore. - NYTimes.com

Agreed. She has definitely done far better than expected and Trump has not done well at all.

Heh. I suppose this might give us a hint?

Ex-Arkansas reporter accuses Bill Clinton of groping her | TheHill

I don't understand the attacks on Bill Clinton. They aren't getting any traction on it with the moderate voters they need to win the election.

Bill's a total douchebag, but he hasn't ran for public office in twenty years. Moderates have figured it out, why hasn't Trump?

Because Trump really doesn't have anything else.

All 22 major US white supremacy orgs. endorse Trump but none of the 1382 major US newspapers endorse Trump. pic.twitter.com/CIVpeseGHO

— Mark Rector (@markwellsrector) October 18, 2016

I don't know what the cutoff was to make this list, but of 186 newspaper endorsements tabulated here:

Hillary Clinton: 153
No Endorsement: 15
"Not Donald Trump": 9
Gary Johnson: 6
Donald Trump: 3 (The Santa-Barbara News Press, The St. Joseph's (Missouri) News-Press, and the Waxahachie (Texas) Daily Light)

Newspaper endorsements in the United States presidential election, 2016 - Wikipedia

And of the 14 major magazines that were tabulated, it's Clinton with 10, "Not Donald Trump" with 4, and Trump with 0.

I think it's clear that the Santa Barbara News Press is nowhere near the circulation and influence of the Mineral Wells Index and Goshen News.

Because I have nothing to do but waste time, I looked up the daily circulations...

Mineral Wells - 3119
Goshen News - 7800
Santa Barbara news Press - 5195
St. Joseph's News Press - 26015
Couldn't find circulation info for the Waxahachie Daily Light

Santa Barbara and St. Joseph's endorsements came in the last few days, before the tweet. Not sure if that graphic aired that same day or not. The white supremacist part of the tweet was dumb. Better to just point out that even conservative newspapers haven't endorsed Trump.

Good thing Trump didn't pull a publicity stunt without checking to see that Malik Obama was a supporter of Hamas and favored the destruction of Israel.

Oh wait, he did... Just the kind of judgement we need in a President.

Yes, I'm aware of the sketchy past from the guy editing it. Keep using that to completely discredit the statements the people actually make. Here's an article from a real newspaper if that makes you feel better that hits close to my position (because some of what's on those tapes seems like theoretical talk, and some doesn't even seem illegal. But there's also clearly evidence of dirty tricks, and implications of illegal coordination, though I assume the specific double blinds they talk about on video are enough to officially absolve the Clinton campaign & DNC.) Two local Democratic operatives lose jobs after video sting on voter fraud - Chicago Tribune

Yeah I don't agree with this. I think Trump's campaign needs to be constantly hammered on the support they get from white supremacists.

I can't imagine Ryan is in trouble, but oof:

Paul Ryan favorability rating among TRUMP VOTERS
Last week: +8 This week: -36

The Trump brand definitely has some value, like the tea party brand did. Except it's mostly a negative value - you're with us or we fucking hate you and you're an ugly bitch (and so forth). I wonder how much staying power that brand will have after the election.

Well Ryan is in trouble for 2020 for sure. He somehow managed to piss off both Trump supporters and detractors.

After reading that article that you posted last week, I agree with you. He needs to constantly be questioned about his refusal to forcefully denounce these groups and repudiate their support.

I think they should get hammered when they refuse to disavow that support (like when Trump refused to condemn Duke and Pence wouldn't call him deplorable), but the endorsement in and of itself is no more meaningful than when Osama bin Laden endorsed John Kerry. My guess is the same groups endorsed Romney and McCain.

The internals in the new Fox News poll are devastating for Donald Trump.
(typo fixed from previous post). pic.twitter.com/maEWT0ht4h

— Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) October 19, 2016

That "change" question is especially brutal. If you're losing to Hillary Clinton on the issue of change, then you're doing something wrong.

You guys, @realDonaldTrump has a "five-point plan to defeat Islam" according to @KellyannePolls pic.twitter.com/svt8XmwqPZ

— Matt Wilstein (@TheMattWilstein) October 19, 2016

"Defeat Islam...?"

Might need to alter the rule of tonight's drinking game.

Surely he would get more than 5 points for defeating an entire religion?

All you need is a 4 point plan, for just about anything.

I can't imagine it's going away. The name may change but the issues where he's spot on correct will remain. And the fight over them will only get more pitched.

I mean, does anyone actually think supporters are suddenly going to think "oh, he lost, I guess we were wrong"? Yeah, I'm not seeing that either.

What they may start to think however is that "maybe the ballot box isn't the solution"

The only thing many of his voters care about is being displaced in the global economy and having to compete at home with the "coloreds" who get all the breaks.

You're right, that will never fade. At least until education standards are raised in this country.

So, anybody that pays close attention to polling... is it typical this late in an election cycle to still have 10%+ of voters still undecided in so many polls? So many I am seeing in the 538 list of polls add up to around 90% or less between HRC/Trump/Johnson.

I feel like if you're still undecided at this late stage, you don't get to vote, but that aside, it does seem like a large number to me.

I think a number of folks have said as much, including elected officials.

Just thinking aloud here ... are those "likely voter" polls (which presumably don't have a "none" option) or larger universes, which could include "none/not planning to vote" figures.

That might account for the disparity pretty easily if that's an option.

edit to add: Oct 2012 the Obama + Romney averages added to 94-95 percent, fwiw.

But he's changed his stance on those issues a lot. He was liberal before running for president, got very conservative when pursuing the nomination, and now claims he didn't actually say a lot of the more aggressive stuff he said just a few months ago about immigration and global warming and Muslims. I brought this up a while ago here, but Trump's supporters don't seem to care that he lied about how conservative he was. (Edit: Or that he's lying now about how about his moves to the center). As long as he's still calling women fat pigs and such, THAT'S the consistent thing, that attitude, his supporters are rallying around.

That's why it seems different than even the tea party brand, which had some fairly consistent and tangible issue platforms. Trump is more about celebrity and an image. Which are very powerful forces in the U.S. I think a lot of people underestimated him because he wasn't running a very traditional campaign, but when you're Trump, you don't need all of that machinery to be relevant.

The hatred for Hilary is certainly a rallying point, but she's been the face of evil for long enough now that it's kind of an easy target. I mean we've had, what, close to two decades of her in the public eye to make her a (willing) focal point.

There's any number of people who, given the same level of publicity & a similarly grating personality, could have just an easily been as "inspirational"

You can effectively buy Trump/GOP/nonwoman at 21c today. Anyone think that's a good play? I don't like the inherent uncertainty of a debate... but I remain intrigued.

They've got a poll with McMullin leading Utah now with 31% of the vote.

Ahhh... okay, I found a proxy market in VP KAINE NO and bought in there at 18c. That's not as fluid a market as the direct ones, but they tend to sort out a differential that large within a day's time. 18 to 22 seems very do-able by this time tomorrow. Or to 14, of course.

Apparently the Trump campaign is "very inclusive." And that's why they invited Obama's half-brother.

Conway: Obama's half-brother invited to debate because 'we’re inclusive' - POLITICO

Any chance that the Benghazi mother just stands up and starts screaming at Hillary during the debate? Get some predictit.org odds on that one.

I mean what kind of clown show is this? What advisor is like, "you know what would be great? Bringing in that Kenyan brother. We can infer that even though Obama has a birth certificate he still hates America. Great ratings. Massive!"

Why do you think Trump is asking advisers anything?

Hillary should have Alec Baldwin at the debate, sitting in the first row, in character as Trump.

OMG

Today's stunt is apparently a news conference for the illegitimate child of Bill Clinton to announce a paternity suit.

Edit: I guess that also answers the question of the surprise guest at the debate.

Is it the alien baby?

:thumbsup:

No one as good as that, but she is apparently bringing Meg Whitman and Mark Cuban with her. Actual successful businesspeople?

Just curious, when you typed that, were you referring to sanctuary cities or small businesses using undocumented labor or something else/all of the above?

Better yet, she should send in Kate McKinnon to do the debate for her.

What laws aren't being enforced? Obama has deported 2.5 million illegal immigrants.

I'm sure there's "wink, wink" going on. But the other side of the coin, is that many Federal agencies don't have the money to do the jobs they are charged with. If 2.5 million people were deported over eight years, that's 300,000 annually. I imagine it takes a heck of a lot of manpower to pull that off.

Laws have always been selectively enforced based on the severity of the infraction. As an extreme example, take speeding. Cops constantly let law breakers go without so much as even a warning. Not only do we not have the manpower to arrest and prosecute everyone, nor the space to incarcerate everyone, we don't enforce the letter of every law because to do so would leave us in a police state.

Now you can argue for greater enforcement all you want, but don't think it's something out of character for law enforcement.

Trump has backed off on his plan to "fully" enforce immigration law. He got a lot of headlines early for saying he's remove all 11 million immigrants, but he's admitted more recently that he wouldn't really do that. Then he said he was just going to do the "same" enforcement as Bush and Obama, and that he'd "work with" illegal immigrants.

He needs to update his website then:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration

To be fair, I doubt he has any input in to what goes into that website and has probably never read it.

Even that's a little softer than when he started. "Anyone who enters the U.S. illegally is subject to deportation," and the proposed targeting of illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. That's not the Trump I remember from the primaries, where all 11 million were leaving and maybe he'd let the "good ones" back in. And of course, he wanted to completely ban Muslims. Now he just talks about vetting them.

And there have been a few news appearances where he's softened it more and said he's just going to do what Obama does but with "more energy".

Trump's Deportation Plan: 'Do the Same Thing' as Obama But 'With a Lot More Energy' - NBC News

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/23/politi...ration-policy/

well, my first thought was sanctuary cities, but then I thought maybe that was me just making a biased assumption. Not a gotcha, more of a recognition how the narrative has changed from- they are taking our jobs to they are fugitives.

Also, I think whatever the Latin for "cognitive dissonance" is, that should be on our coins: welfare, education, healthcare, immigration, justice system all have an upside down pyramid of benefits

Is it just me or is Chris Wallace looking very very nervous?

Is Trump on Valium tonight?

Yeah, he went from coke to ludes.

Holy shit. Did Trump really say, "Bad hombres?"

Some bad hombres.

So far, pretty even. Two different visions, both defending their sides fairly well.

Not watching because I can't stand to listen to it, but I am following a live transcript of it.

Did Trump really say the sentence: "It's happened bigly." ?

EDIT: And followed it up with "We'll speed up the process bigly."?

Big league.

Ah, okay....that'd be pushing it, even for Trump.

Well a tie is bad for DJT but what debate are you watching? One is speaking in specifics. One is talking about bad hombres. Big league.

[IMG]via Imgflip Meme Generator[/IMG]

+1

HRC stunned by the $250000 open border comments. Pivots to Trump wanting Putin to influence the election. Nice try. Didnt work.

Mellow Trump is punching HRC in the balls. And HRCs responses are not real good.

Interesting so far. I see Trump ahead. HRC cannot win a debate that is mudslinging. She needs to go back to the 1st debate plan.

I think Wallace is doing a good job. He is holding both to the fire.