Yep. Riveting stuff.

Yes.

Yep.

It really is. He's really being straightforward and honest.

A few questions:

1) What causes the hurricane predictions to make it curve back east, and not follow the path of Rizon's blue arrow here?



2) On the AL12 map on page 2, what is the XTRP path and why is it so different from the other ones?

3) Do they duplicate names for hurricanes/storms/depressions/puffs of wind? (It looks like they do).

4) I can't find a good site that has previous hurricane paths, I keep finding different paths for the same (old) hurricane (which makes me think they use old names for these things)

Can you give us any sort of commentary on what he's saying?

5) Wasn't this a movie a few months ago?

Dear lord,, you see the kids in the Gulfport shot?

The mayor is doing a good job right now, from what I can tell. It's a shame that I don't like the man. He cost New Orleans its hockey team 3 years ago, and I still haven't forgiven him. :D

There is anpther one forming off the coast of W. Africa too. Looks like its gonna be a long month. :(

He finished a few moments ago. I'll see if I can recap. Others , please feel free to help me out here. Here are the things that stood out to me, as best as I remember them...

• He's estimating 6 weeks to get power back on.
• He expects to see a lot of boats in the streets of New Orleans.
• He told people who are staying in their homes that, if they go to the attic to escape rising water, to make sure to take an axe or some other device to break through the ceiling in order to get on the roof.
• He had one slip-up, I think. He said something along the lines of, "after a certain point this evening, if you've decided to stay you must understand that the winds will be so bad that there will be no services whatsoever. No fire. No police. Uh, no, excuse, there will be police out patrolling...." Methinks he realized right then that it probably wasn't a good idea to tell everyone that there would be no police.
• The President got his cell phone number and he also has satellite phone contact with the White House now.

All in all, he was very blunt and straightforward about what New Orleans is probably facing.

Prevailing winds/jet stream?

He's being honest though and thank goodness not sugar coating things.

The general air flow in the middle latitudes is from West to East, so weather tends to go that way once you get away from the southern US coast. (The Jet Stream would start to steer the system)


This is the current motion and an extrapolation of where it would go if it continued to follow that motion.


Hurricane names in the Atlantic an Pacific Basins are rotated on a 6 year cycle. However very strong hurricanes (like Andrew and looking like Katrina) have their names retired and never used again.


You can get these from the National Hurricane Center Here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml Look in the second heading from the bottom of the page for yearly track maps.

Hope this helps

Sadly, there is likely a small percentage (less than 1 percent, hopefully) of the people staying behind because either consciously or subconsciously they think they will be able to score some free goodies during the aftermath ...

Yes, there is a six year loop of names, but sometimes names are retired.

According to the NHC, "The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate"

Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne were retired after 2004.

A few things:

1) The water temperature here I think is critical. If it is warm it will continue strengthen. I think it lost a little organization but the water is warm enough it will it will get back organized.
2) The winds have to stay below 200 MPH. At this time, it does not look like it will do that. The Superdome, which will have nearly 100,000 people in it, can take winds up to 200 MPH. Anything more than that could cause a huge number of casualties.
3) In my brief experience watching these storms, one they get to a certain point, they pretty much bare down and do not change direction. I think the land probably prevents it from changing but I am no expert. It is getting very close to that point.
4) Camille went straight up the Mississippi River and did not change directions. It also sent the water in the Mississippi the other direction (it moved north). This has so many of the same characteristics of Camille and I think it will be very similar. IF it goes up the river, it will maintain some its strengthen and be a hurricane all the way to Memphis.

There is still no word from sister’s fiancée. The unit in his town got called up but is with a different unit in a neighboring town. I am sure they will be in shelters but you still do not want to get in the way of this sucker.

There was a cold front crossing Texas, not that it made things cold. I would say this has an effect in pushing it back east.

The water temperatures are near or above 90 degrees F. There is little in the upper levels available to disturb the hurricane. In actuallity this is one of the best organized storms I can remember. It's just rare for a storm to maintain such a high wind speed. In actuality even though the storm's wind speeds are lower, the circulation itself is more potent as evidenced by the extremely low pressure.


This is highly likely IMO. The system is so large it's unlikely that it will have sustained winds above 200 MPH. However, it would not be surprising for there to be a few gusts over 200, particularly several stories above street level.


The upper level steering is likely to have the storm bear down. But there is nothing inherent to hurricanes or the land that prevents it from turning. There have been storms that make sudden 90 degree turns (think Charley last year). Hurricanes more or less are stuck going in whatever direction the prevailing upper winds blow.



Following the river would not in and of itself extend the lenght of time that the storm maintains hurricane strength. The friction of the land tends to tear the circulation apart. The bigger determinant is a) the strength the hurricane hits with (the stronger it is the longer to weaken) and b) the speed it is moving (the faster it is, the further inland it can maintain hurricane strength).

Current forecasts take it through Jackson, Mississippi, as a tropical storm before weakening to a depression in Tennessee and the Ohio Valley.

Why is Shepard Smith still reporting from the French Quarter? He sure sounds pretty pissed off that he's still there...

Are these wind patterns enough to push it (mostly) away from NO?

No they aren't (in fact the winds on that map are mostly caused by the hurricane). The upper level winds are more critical, not the surface winds. The upper level winds are coming from the south.

Maybe now would be a good time for me to go the gas station instead of waiting until tomorrow.

Ah, I finally found a good map. Everything does look like it's pushing east.

This animated map takes a few minutes to load:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

Darwin at work - idiots surfing the Alabama coast right now.

I don't think you can sugar coat a CAT 5 hitting the low-lands of Louisiana. This one is gonna be ugly. I hope everybody who can leave will.

The mayor also said they were going to flush the entire sewer system out to sea this evening to allow for additional water build-up.

Which prompted the newscaster to ask, "So, will we be able to flush our toilets only once then?"

I thought that was kind of funny. Of course, he responds, "No, you should be able to flush your toilets multiple times."

lol. Way to get the heart of the situation, lady. :) I know, I'm being critical of newscasters who are asked to report live for hours on end. I know that's not easy.

BTW for what it's worth the satellite does show the cloud tops warming (typically an indication of a weakening) recently. However, fluxuations in hurricanes are not uncommon, and the warming hasn't continued long enough to call it a trend. (And even then the "weakening" isn't likely to drop the storm below Category 4.)

Here is a satellite image focused on the hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...-ir4-loop.html

Scott:

The clouds seem to be following my drawn in red pattern (using my awesome artistic skills). Is this caused by the hurricane or is it normal for them to travel across the Trailer States up to/swirling around in Canada?

Been watching this for the last hour and a half and it is excellent coverage.

I was fascinated by the meteorologist talking about the "stadium effect" of the eye.

These are two seperate and unrelated systems. But the atmosphere is very fluid so air flow and airmasses are constantly circulated throughout the globe. In actuallity the air is flowing towards both swirls. (Think of them as whirlpools. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure, both swirls are low pressure systems)

This is completely unrelated to the hurricane, but I've seen the female news anchor, Karen Swensen, in person. She has a really big head.

there's a guy (I have no idea of his bonafides) named Dr. Jeff Masters who's blogging at Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html). Here's a portion of his last post.

Not good at all.

I like it when they talk on the phone to parish sheriffs and levee supervisors because they provide a true local flavor instead of anchors that talk and act like they could be in Boston or Seattle.

Dr. Jeff Masters is the co-founder and director of Meteorology at Weather Underground.

And now is a perfectly horrible time to bring this up.

Anyone seen the Air Force? storm chaser woman. I think she was on FOX or TWC. Blonde woman. She's hot.

Fox News reported that oil tankers have been abandoned off gulf of mexico, looks like there's also potential for environmental problems.
Oh and OIL FUTURES Prices are now up to $ 4.00 as per MSNBC

Latest advisory is out and they've knocked the speed down just a touch more, to 160 MPH, but still 160 is nothing to sneeze at. It was never expected to stay at 175, and I do expect it'll fluctuate more. At worst, however, we're still talking about 145-150 at the bottom end at landfall. 155-165 is more likely at this point.

Hurricane KATRINA Public Advisory
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Chrts Archive

US Watch/Warning
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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 89.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

LOL. Nicole Mitchell is an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter, and a Weather Channel meteorologist. She's usually on in the morning with Marshall Seese (sp?) and Heather Tesch.

On a serious note, I hope everyone in the area has heeded the warnings and gotten the hell out of the way. Let Jim Cantore and his pals show you what it's like from a couple hundred miles away.

Loren just pointed out he hasn't been on for a while that we have seen, and maybe he is taking a nap so he is well rested for later tonight.

Dola...should also note pressure has crept up to 904 from 902. However, this storm will not just fall apart before landfall. Just too little water left. Admittedly, storms like Opal and a couple of others have come undone just hours before landfall, but there's nothing here to indicate Katrina will do so in such a short amount of time.

I didn't catch exactly where he was, but my wife mentioned earlier that he was taking shelter at a retirement home or some such place. (no that's not a punch line, I'm serious).

I believe Jim is in or near Biloxi. Whatever place he was was going to hole up in was not a public shelter, but could be made available if necessary at the last minute.

That reminds me of something I thought of earlier, and I wish they would cover at some point during one of these hurricanes.

What do places like retirement homes do, and hospitals, that are vulnerable to large amounts of damage and have I high number of people who are difficult to move. I hope they have some kind of way to help these people, or protect them in a decent area......

Jim is in Biloxi.

Oil futures are trading at over $70 a barrel. Get ready for a roller coaster week on Wall Street.

Yep. Went out and tanked up both cars today. I'm assuming the 2.65 it's going for now up here in MI will be closer to 3.00 later this week as the extent of the damage in Louisiana becomes better known.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Wave height of 30 ft 64 miles south of Dolphin Island, AL

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml

a page with some more info

Yeah, I'm in nw la. Shreveport area, near Texas and Arkansas border. Probably will miss the entire thing as it gets pulled east.

We could use the rain, however.