I don't think Florida or Ohio is going to be called tonight.

I'd be surprised at this point if Florida doesn't go to Bush. That leaves Ohio as the key battleground right now and it looks like it could go either way (Bush is leading right now, but some of the heavy democratic urban areas with lots of votes haven't reported). With all the challenges and everything we've seen in Ohio, this could be even uglier than 2000.

agreed.

Hell, if everything falls the same as 2000 (with Ohio and Florida going Bush) EXCEPT New Hampshire then Kerry would still win...

Here's the thing with Florida, though. Right now, Bush leads by 300K. The remaining precincts, I believe, are South Florida, so you have to expect that 300K lead to dwindle a bit. And I've heard on TV (and these numbers are from the TV so I don't know how accurate they are) that there are upwards of 250K absentee ballots that may not be counted until Thursday. This likely won't be down to a 537 vote difference, but I think it may sufficiently call the result in question and keep it from being called tonight.

Oh god, ACLU filed a lawsuit in Broward and Palm Beach counties based on absentee ballots.

Also, Bush is up ~300,000 with roughly 1 million votes left by my off-hand calculations.

I think re-districting gave the red states from 2000 a couple more and enough to negate NH switching sides changing the outcome alone.

CNN gives Bush the all important Idaho vote. :)

Dont forget Montana now

Arent Absentee ballots generally more republican votes than dems?

nevada is leaning Kerry now... basically it's all going to come down to Ohio (I think Fla is safely Bush's)

Well, I was wrong about a couple of states.

Seems safe to call Florida. Bush is doing better than he did in 2000 in nearly every county.

Ohio is neck and neck, but Bush does hold an edge. Kerry's doing a tad better than Gore did, but not enough to make up the 2% Bush won in 2000. Of course, there's much less data to work with there than in Florida.

Not looking like the rout I expected at all. It's all about Ohio.

I'll start looking into Wisconsin later. I'm going to take another pass through Ohio.

It wasn't really re-districting but a reallocation of the # of house seats for each state. Great chart by Tim Russert, if the states go exactly the same way as 2000, Bush would get 278 to 260 for Kerry.

It is all about Ohio.

Todd

Is that how you predicted a Kerry rout?

I heard through the grapevine (guy I know who lives up there) Wisconsin has Kerry up.

and yahoo frontpage craps out...

I've got a baaad feeling about this...

Did you pick the wrong week to stop sniffing glue like me?

yahoo/ap just flipped wisconsin to leaning kerry...

just not looking good for Kerry. He's doomed without ohio.

CBS just gave Florida away to Bush

Bucc, I had the big 4 - Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa - all for Kerry (and New Mexico, which isn't looking like a good bet, either).

Ohio is difficult. The early returns in Cincinnati show the kind of dramatic shift Kerry needed. But he isn't getting that everywhere - just getting enough in Canton, Columbus, Toledo, somewhat in Cleveland. The rest of the state is staying near where it was in 2000.

The networks are being awfully wimpy not calling Florida. But they're hinting as much.

I'm hoping to work on Wisconsin in the next hour.

Now why would they do that? Is Rather/CBS getting that desperate?

Apparently Cleveland's precincts have all reported, so Kerry's got all the bounce he's going to get from that part. I have to admit, I'm surprised. I voted for Bush,but really thought he'd lose, maybe not by the margin some thought, though. you just never know.

giving Fla, Ohio, Arizona, Montana and Colorado to Bush give W 266 (by my math). Nevada's 5 would push him over the top.

assuming Kerry pulls out Wisonsin, he's still got to win either Ohio, Nevada, or Colorado, and none of them seem very likely right now.

Kerry is +3 in nevada right now

yahoo gives fla to bush

FoxNews was reporting that Cleveland hadn't reported at all yet and that they expect Kerry to make up the 130k votes quite easily.

So I still have Bush on the outside looking for a miracle.

C'mon Cincy, boost that kerry count.

Its pathetic that I have to root for such a putz, but a democratic putz is safer than a republican religious state.

Cleveland is Cuyahoga county - according to CNN - 52% of the precinct has reported with Kerry ahead by almost 100k - I guess you can double that, so Kerry stands to make up another 100k in votes.

ok, i think Badnarik is gonna lose....maybe the winner between him and Nader could be VP. Since they are kind of like the Division 1-AA of national politics and have nochance of beating the big boys.....

I find it somewhat amusing that Nader is getting so very few votes. The Party Machines really did a number on him, huh?

I agree. I'm looking forward to 2008.

Looking real good for Bush.

According to my non-scientific calcs - Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico and therefore wins the election. Then again...I'm a mere voter in Delaware, what do I know?

He was kept off the ballot in several states because the Democrats fought in the courts to keep him off, like in Texas. My wife had to write him in, and that was a pain because no one who was running the polling location we go to knew how to do a write in vote, guess she was the first of the day....
:rolleyes:

Also, like some guy on CNN said earlier, 3rd party guys (even though he is Independent this time) usually drop the next time around after having any kind of push in an election, like Perot....

If Kerry wins, I admit I am looking forward to being scratched from my next rotation in the desert in favor of French, German, and Russian troop support. :D

Regardless of whether Bush wins, I'm looking forward to 2008. :)

On a personal note, winning Florida by such a (relatively) comfortable margin is good for my firm.

Look at Ohio more closely, Cuyhoga(sp) county has only reported half and kerry is slaughtering bush there....

also, paying attention to michigan, wayne county(detroit really) has half precints and kerry is really hammering bush there, 75% to 23%. and thats with still more to come.

I think we'll end up again with the W losing the popular vote.

but as for that blasted electoral...grrrr

according to ap county by county precint counts in ohio...in ten minutes since i last checked.. kerry just gained on bush by 50,000 votes. down by 20 now.

I still think Ohio will go blue.

Dems said to be "increasingly pessimistic" about Ohio, according to a reporter in Boston on Fox.

I have to agree. (EDIT: With Jeff Night)

Begala and Carville basically conceded the election 25 minutes ago on CNN.

The scary part to me was what else the reporter said. Something along the lines of the dems were getting increasingly pessimistic about Ohio and that they feel the election will be settled on the court house steps tomorrow morning.

Good lord. . . If you lose, you freakin lose.

Tonight doesn't surprise me in the least. I felt all along that Bush had more momentum than people thought and that Kerry's horrific campaign strategy was keeping things too close.

He may eek out Ohio and still get this election, but it's looking pretty grim for him.

With Bush up in Ohio and New Mexico. . . Kerry is looking like he's in trouble.

Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe by any stretch that it is over already, but I would have loved to see the look on Carville's face when he talked about this.

My thoughts exactly, no matter which side you are on.

Sometime, many many years in the future, we will break this god damned 2 party system.

And then I will be happy.

There are about 5,000 laywers in Florida scrambling to get on flights to Cleveland that disagree with that philosophy. :)

Couldn't agree more with this. Don't get me wrong, those of you who support Kerry. I know Bush would do the same thing and I would be just as pissed when he did it.

Bush holds on in Ohio, this thing is over.

Wisconsin is still early, but what I see is a tiny shift for Kerry over 2000 - on the order of 0.1% - 0.2%. So I'm expecting that to stay in the Kerry column.

Bush gets Montana.

word to your mother!