He doesn't have elite straight-line speed, but do not underrate his athletic skills. He will present a problem for offenses. If the Lions didn't think they needed a top CB, or think their guy will be there at 34, it's not a bad pick at all.
|
Quote:
Samesies. Maybe I had my hopes too high. I was all in on Brad out maneuvering this draft like he did last year. Feels right now like he got played. |
Quote:
Well even if Detroit fans are disappointed with the Lions tonight they could always find hope with the 9-15 Detroit Tigers... I mean Red Wings... or Pistons.. I mean Jesus F Christ. How is a town this bad at sports? |
I don't hate the pick because I could be easily convinced that ILB is the biggest hole on this defense & Campbell seems like a high-floor kind of player.
|
Doesn't the Campbell pick look better if the Lions took Gonzalez at 12? But it feels like now they're having to chase bad draft picks all draft
SI |
Quote:
I just question the value of the pick regardless. Big, sure tacklers that don't have the speed to hold up in coverage aren't the type of linebackers you generally take in the 1st round. Trenton Simpson seems like a better pick in today's NFL. He's probably a very safe pick, but you walk out of this first round with a running back that isn't a 3 down guy and a ILB that might not be a 3 down guy. |
Do either of these 1st round picks improve the Lions in '23? Hard to see how.
If you believe in Montgomery and Anzalone enough to give them 3 year deals, you don't use this draft capital for these two guys |
I won’t be able to listen to any post-draft podcasts or analyses.
I’m out! |
I'm not a fan of the RB pick. Seemed far too soon. Campbell has the size to hang with tight ends, and his combine performance suggests he won't be lost on passing downs. Whenever just about everyone seems delighted to project a guy to their team in the second round, that's a sign he's probably a first-round guy.
Trading into #34 means they could have a good plan to upgrade the defense and still take a flyer on a skill position. Just don't do it again. |
Prisco gave the Campbell pick an A+ for better or worse.
|
I’m out on these fucking clowns
|
I think Gibbs can be an impactful NFL player ... I just don't get why they paid Montgomery AND took Gibbs.
|
Quote:
well, this take didn't age well |
I realize that I’m probably overly-focused on positional value. But even if a RB and a stack LB end up being very good players, it’s still hard to justify those picks at those points in the first round.
|
...add to that, that both picks were massive reaches compared to widely available consensus boards. So, even if you were dead set on getting those two guys, you had maybe a 90% or better chance of getting them at 18 and 34 rather than 12 and 18. Take CB Gonzalez at 12 and still land these two and it's at least a defensible draft, maybe only guilty of frittering away the obvious gain from the trade-down, rather than a total clown show.
|
The first round made me sad and unhappy.
For the first time in 20 years the Lions are favored to win the division and the NFC is pretty wide open. This draft was pivotal given where they are in the rebuild and the extra draft capital from the Stafford and Hockenson trades. So, they end up reaching for two players at non-premium positions. The value of RBs and LBs has never been lower in the league. Sequan Barkley was the last running back taken in the top half of the first round before tonight. Two running backs never go. It was a huge reach. Campbell was a reach too. He struggles in pass coverage. I like both players and if they had taken these guys in the second, I’d be thrilled, but they didn’t. They could have sat at 6 and taken Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson and then, say, Deonte Banks at 18 and seriously improved their poopy defense. Now watch them draft a guard or tight end at 34. I believed in you, Brad Holmes! |
I just have no words, this was a potential moment and they had the worst first round in the league and it ain't close
|
2023 Lions front office suddenly regressed to pre-2023 Lions front office, I see.
|
They were apparently very hyped when they got Gibbs
https://twitter.com/TWDTV1/status/16...3-nfl-draft%2F Quote:
|
Quote:
I'd hesitate to judge it until 2-3 years have passed. They traded down when the only DE very likely to be worth #6 was taken. They picked up an early pick today and future value. And they took two guys whose average mock draft position was far lower than when they took them, but, and here's the key point, both do things that most starters at their positions don't do. So that reflects a different philosophy, a different take on "best player available" than what more conservative teams exhibit. Either player may have been still available at 34. Or maybe not. It just takes one team. What do the Lions perceive as replacement level, or easily available in lower rounds? I wouldn't give them an A grade, and I think they should have tried to trade down more if they concluded that Gibbs was worth the #12 pick because RBs, especially those his size, don't see the field enough to be worth it, but it's too early to say much. Drafting is never going to be an exact science. If it were, every team that passed on Tom Brady before he was taken at #199 gets an F, including the team that drafted him. |
Pretty much has to be Mayer, right?
|
|
Drafting is not an exact science, we all get that.
But you MUST be willing to take chances when they’re heavily skewed in your favor. Period. If you LOVE Gibbs as your BPA at 12, you just must make every opportunity to trade down to a space like, say, 24… and then commit to taking him there. He’d still be a reach there, by nearly every forecast, but you get your guy, a cheaper contract, and at minimum an extra 2nd round pick to use on the actual premium position you neglected by reaching for the RB. So, my quarrel is not precisely that they chose this running back as their target player. My quarrel is the means by which they did it. They should have been willing to absorb some chance of losing out on that particular player, to gather all the benefits of trying to do so at a more reasonable point. And basically ditto for the LB. |
Quote:
To add to that, even if you hit on both of these picks, how much do they potentially impact winning? You still have an off ball linebacker and a situational running back. This draft for the Lions was set up in a way that they could grab impact players early and still have the extra picks to maneuver to grab needs at less impactful positions in the back part of round 1 or early round 2. |
Smokescreens, copium, and all that but Brad said that he got texts after the pick from other GMs saying that Gibbs would be taken by #18. Specifically by the Jets at #15 and possibly Patriots at #17. He chuckled when some had Gibbs mocked in the 50s. If he's a first rounder to you and he's your guy, you probably do what they did and get him when you're sure you can get him.
Same with Campbell at #18. Brad said that there were talks from teams to move up into the end of round 1 to get Campbell. He admitted he might have been able to game it a little and move down a few spots but they chose to take the guy they wanted when they were sure they'd get him. |
We'll never know what would have happened. The Jets drafting Gibbs in round one is a prop I would have gladly booked at virtually any price, I just cannot see how that could possibly have happened. But sure, there's always a theory why you had to reach like a fool.
|
I can't imagine the Jets would give up on Hall and take Gibbs. Or if they wasted their 1st on a back to team with Hall they're even dumber than the Lions.
|
Quote:
They seemed all in on Christian Gonzalez,any insight why they would not have grabbed him at 12? I know physicality was one knock, so wondering if they were hoping he would fall them at 18. I just don't see taking Gibbs that high as a need, when he would have most likely fallen to them at 34, then get the LB at 41. Also Kancey would have filled a position of need at 18, even Smith-Njigbe there. Guess they could still get Joey Porter Jr at 34 if Pittsburgh doesn't jump on him. |
Quote:
Everybody's body language in that clip sure suggests they actually did value Gibbs that high, for whatever that is worth. I don't think that many old dudes could effectively fake enthusiasm. It feels worth pointing out that we all almost universally agreed that Holmes had a stellar offseason...but the one move that we collectively scratched our heads at was the Montgomery signing. With a little hindsight it sure seems to suggest that Holmes values RB very highly & perhaps on an entirely different scale than the rest of the league. I am also reminded of when Dan Campbell took over offensive playcalling duties two years ago and tried to run the ball like 80% of plays. As far as trading Swift goes I don't imagine he attracts anything more than a 4th or 5th and at that point it seems like you almost get more value keeping him around, if leaning into RBs hard is the plan. Shrug |
Round 2. Feeling like Porter, Mayer, Branch all seem like good value at #34.
|
So I mocked LaPorta to the Lions a lot with those mid-2nd rounders, so I’m ok with the fit. I liked him over Musgrave fir them.
But over Mayer? And also over the Georgia giant? Didn’t see that coming. |
Skip Meyer to draft LaPorta from Iowa. "Not an overpowering blocker"
So, T.J. Hockensen part 2. |
My daughter is so pissed the Lions didn't pick the kid from CovCath.
|
Lions move up to #45. Benton maybe?
|
It looks like the Lions decided to Branch out.
|
Hoping for Adetomiwa Adebawore at the end of the second.
|
I did not see Hooker to the Lions
|
There were some mock drafts here where people picked him
SI |
Motor City Football's report on Hooker
|
I really like Hooker. I think he might end up being a steal here.
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk |
Hmm. I was still kind of hoping for a veteran backup at that #2 QB slot, but maybe this ends that conversation.
|
I. Hate. This. Draft.
Hendon Hooker - Old. Injured. Was only good in an offense that can’t exist in the NFL. The same offense that hoodwinked people into thinking Drew Lock was a viable NFL QB. |
Brodric Martin might win the draft pick with the lowest relative athletic score - 2.14.
|
The Lion's draft this far is the Island of Misfit Toys. If you have low positional value or a RAS at either end of the spectrum, the Lions got you.
|
Well, RB Swift had no value, obviously, so we shrewdly gather a 4th rounder in a future draft because we are a really smart front office.
|
Well, either Swift will have 1,800 yards from scrimmage in 16 games because he's in Philly now and transformed from that Unbreakable movie, or he'll play 6 games separated by three weeks each because he's still a glass cannon.
|
Saw that coming, but still not particularly happy about it. Throw Swift on the pile of highly talented Lions RBs that got derailed by injuries. I'd love to say I wish him well, but the paltry compensation kinda dictates that I can't.
Was reading an article earlier today that suggested if the Lions had picked the exact same players using the same picks, but instead gone in order of Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs, Hendon Hooker, Jack Campbell and Sam LaPorta then people would have universally loved it. I'm not sure I agree 100% but it's also not absolutely wrong. Personally I still think/hope that Holmes had enough positives during free agency this year that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on this draft process, which always takes years to truly evaluate any way. YMMV. Does seem like WR has bubbled up to become top worry again, after the gambling suspensions and this draft coloring in most of the other holes. |
Detroit GM says they would have took Bijan at 6 if they hadn't traded down.
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk |
Quote:
Looks like they did pick up a receiver in round 7 fwiw. |
1 12 Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
1 18 Jack Campbell LB Iowa 2 34 Sam LaPorta TE Iowa 2 45 Brian Branch S Alabama 3 68 Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee 3 96 Brodric Martin DT Western Kentucky 5 152 Colby Sorsdal OT William & Mary 7 219 Antoine Green WR North Carolina OK. So it's likely almost a zero on adding to the line mix. Martin might have situational value. Maybe Sorsdal can develop, though it's a project. Teams often take a flyer like that. In Branch and Campbell, I think they have two guys who will play a lot, contribute right off the bat. In that sense, a successful draft. But with two first-round picks, I think they could have done better. |
Totally agree that I expected them to address the DL more. I could see LaPorta also playing and producing a lot immediately, that TE room is relatively empty. They talk like they really value Gibbs as a receiving threat & potentially we could see him pick up some additonal snaps outside of RB.
|
I like Brian Branch. I really expected the Falcons to take him.
|
Quote:
So they added a running back who won't do much in the way of power running. And a tight end who is basically just a slightly larger and slightly slower wide receiver, not much of a plus for the running game. Both skilled players, but really just adding options for Goff when he gets the ball out quickly enough. It sounds like they're going to let opponents get away with not worrying much about getting overpowered. Offenses can work like this, but you need your quarterback to make great decisions quickly. |
I just can’t get that Carolina game out of my mind when it comes to the defense.
|
Bo77, the Motor City Football guy, wrote up the Lions picks on reddit here:Bo77 Rounds 1-2
and here: Bo77 Rounds 3-7 |
In terms of UDFAs, I really like the signing of Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim. He’s a bowling ball of a player and always falls forward. He could be a really good goal line/short yardage back, which given the loss Jamaal Williams and Campbell’s love of going for it on 4th down could fill a need.
|
Quote:
Question is, can he stay on the field ( Sidelined by injury for at least one game in four of the past five seasons) |
Quote:
This was from March 3rd. Aged like wine. If the brass in Detroit want to contact me, Im available |
So, misgivings aside… Jack Campbell fir DROY seems solid, yea? Feels like 100 tackles and voters like tackles…
|
I also think that the media wants to jump on the Detroit bandwagon, which helps.
And there does not appear to be a Von Miller/Myles Garrett type this draft who is going to get 10+ sacks as a rookie, which opens the door to Campbell and others. The only issue is that Detroit already has a good ILB (Rodriguez), who might take tackles away from Campbell. |
MGM is paying +1800 on it, I'm in for enough to follow along.
|
What's the list for OROY and DROY (if it is easy to cut and paste)?
Having put all of that mental energy into the draft, I feel like I want to get something out of it :-) |
It's been a few weeks now since the Draft and the dust has settled...
The day or so before the draft, I started to come down with something. I was pretty congested, not feeling great, but not terrible either. The Friday night of the second and third rounds that took a turn and I came down with a fever. That soon became a full on viral infection and that turned into a bacterial infection with a full week of massive headaches and congestion. This was only the second time I've been sick in over five years. I mention that, because it feels like a physical manifestation of the Lions post-draft vibes. No team seemed to be riding higher than the Lions coming into the draft. They had that great run at the end of last year, had a very solid free agency period, they retained Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, and had the promise of a healthy Jameson Williams (more of this later) for the season - a huge potential boost for the offense. Those vibes have taken quite the turn. It really started with the announcement of the Jameson Williams six game suspension. That led to criticism of his maturity level, stuff he posted to social media and doubts about his long term future began (I think unfairly) to manifest. There was even his desire to get the #1 jersey after Okudah left that was denied, because someone else took it. The vibes around Jameson Williams started to sour. Then, as we all know, there was the draft - particularly the first round - where the Lions stunned everyone by using their big time draft capital to take Gibbs, a running back, and Jack Campell, an off-ball linebacker, with their top two picks. Both players were seen not only as reaches, but as reaches at non-premium positions. Both NFL Twitter/Hipsters and old school NFL folks largely ripped the Lions for this. The criticism of the Lions draft seemed to wane a bit after rounds 2 and 3, mainly because they drafted Brian Branch in the middle of the second round. The criticism now is that the Lions don't know how to properly team build. They made moves that could set them up for 2023, but really don't put them in a great position for long term success. They are talking about extending Jared Goff, who NFL Twitter/Hipsters generally hate and think is the poster boy for a mediocre old-school, stationary NFL QB. There is the belief that the Lions should have taken their draft capital this year and parlayed that into a high-end QB of the future, because they won't likely be drafting this high again. I am not sure about that. I think it's safe to say that they had no shot at getting Bryce Young, which means they would have had to trade up to 2 or 3 overall to get either Stroud (who seems like a younger, slightly more athletic Goff) or Richardson. I don't think drafting Levis would have been the big swing/improvement people wanted and the Lions managed to get the consensus 4th best QB (Hooker) in the 3rd round. So, I really think this comes down to the Lions not moving up for Richardson. As exciting and interesting as Richardson is and as a high a ceiling he appears to have, I am just not sure I agree with the criticism here. It would have cost them a lot, wouldn't have really helped the team at all this year, and may have blown up in their face. Then again, it's possible that drafting him would have given this franchise juice the likes of which it hasn't had in the modern era and the notion that the Lions would have given up 6 and 18 (or one of their second rounders) for Richardson a slam dunk. The Lions are, also, getting heavily criticized for dumping Swift and Williams for Montgomery and Gibbs. Many see this as a lateral move, at best, on the field and a more expensive option off it. I know the Lions see it very differently. They feel like Williams left a ton of yards on the field and Swift did as well. Also, Swift was always hurt. It will be really interesting to see how this all shakes out. Did Holmes make the right call in drafting Gibbs and Campbell as high as he did? Is LaPorta (who was the unanimous star of the Lions rookie mini-camp last weekend) a much better talent than Mayer and Musgrave? Is Brodic Martn another one of Holmes' gems like James Houston and Malcolm Rodriguez? The vibes for the Lions aren't great right now. I know it was has nothing to do with it, but when you add in the Wings not moving up in the draft lottery and the Pistons falling to 5th overall, the overall off-season Detroit sports vibes pretty much suck. I've been in a low-grade panic mode since the first round. Though, luckily I finally got antibiotics about 10 days ago for my sinus infection and feel great! So, maybe things will turn around. |
Well articulated, HB. The Williams "incident" seemed like a body-blow to the fanbase. He was a supposed to be a major point of excitement. Then, it was a bit of a double-down on the downers when the follow-on stories around Williams didn't rebound to the positive.
The draft was a polar opposite to last year. Rather than grabbing the media darlings and being lauded, they grab unexpected picks and get ridiculed. It's never a fun feeling when it has to be explained to you why these are actually good picks. I am a little comforted that the consensus seems to be that they were good players, just taken "too early" as if any of the pundits knows what all 32 team's draft boards look like. Anyway, can't wait to learn that Dan and Brad really ARE the smartest guys in the room and Lions have the first class of 6 co-rookies of the year. |
Hopkins, let's do this
|
At least he's not a smaller speed guy, in which case I'd laugh at the thought, but a 30-year old receiver coming off a performance-drug suspension?
There's good reason no one wanted the contract. He'll catch on somewhere on a one-year or two-year with obvious cap-switch. However... Seems like a gamble. |
He seems like a guy who wants to be the undisputed Alpha WR where he goes. I wonder if he'd want to go to a place where he'd have to at least share that with St. Brown.
That said, you don't hire Dan Campbell for Xs and Os. You hire him because he should be able to keep his players focused and eliminate petty locker room BS like that. |
Interesting point on the RB's, I never really rated swift. In FoF terms he'd be like high elusiveness low hole rec, fine as a receiving back, but eh, it's a lot of money for essentially a Danny Woodhead (but not as good)
|
Do it! |
Cowards!
They know they can't live up to last season, so they're ducking their responsibility. Shameful. |
The more I think about the Jahmyr Gibbs pick, the worse it gets. He seems like a great player and good guy and could really help the Lions, but it's such terrible value.
Gibbs will have to perform like an elite running back from go to justify the draft capital spent on him and his salary cap space. Even if he does play at that level, it's very unlikely he'll be worth the money needed to re-sign him to a second contract. (See, e.g., Saquon Barkley, Zeke Elliot, Dalvin Cook). How many teams in the last 10-15 years have spent a first round pick on a running back and then have that running back play a key role in leading them to a Super Bowl? |
Sonny Micheal. Picked in the first round by New England, and scored the only touchdown in a Super Bowl they won.
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk |
My only caveat is that the cap is going to go up a lot over the next few years, so maybe it isn't as big of an issue for this contract length.
|
I don't believe the salary cap is an impedement for most teams in 99% of situations, unless you handle it extremely poorly with the majority of your contracts over multiple years...I think there are contracts that are built with over-inflated years that are never meant to be paid, but that's an entierly different issue. When players with relatively sane contracts are released for supposed salary cap reasons in this day and age I always assume that's just being used as coverage rather than citing the personal reasons. I don't consider any rookie contracts signifcant.
|
Quote:
If Jahmyr Gibbs scored two tries touchdowns in a Super Bowl the Lions won, I’d be beyond thrilled - I don’t have the words to describe how happy I’d be - but if that doesn’t happy, Sony Michel isn’t a promising career arc to follow. |
I think you are over stating how big a pick it was, and how much a salary cap hit he is. A single pick, even a first-rounder, isn't the end of the world. Only a quarterback has enough impact as a single player to be the difference between a Super Bowl or not. Heck, the Rams won a Super Bowl getting rid of all their picks.
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk |
If Gibbs turns out to be the equivalent weapon to Amon Ra St. Brown or what we expect Jamo to be, wouldn't you want to take him in the first regardless of the rookie contract? Especially compared to drafting someone you thought has a better chance of turning out like, say, (grabbing mid-first round names from 2020 so we see a little bit of trajectory) DT-Javon Kinlaw, DE-K'Lavon Chaisson, CB-C. J. Henderson, CB-Damon Arnette?
|
There's an argument to be made that if your goal is regular (i.e. good) starters, then depending on the year, arguably any pick below 3 or 5 (or maybe 8 in stacked years) is a good trade for someone who fits that profile.
|
Quote:
Given the trade that Lions made, I guess you’d have to compare Gibbs and LaPorta to, say, Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, or Bijan Robinson. I really hope it works out! |
|
Quote:
I wish I could reassure you and tell you that it gets better. But this is the Lions. We can only hope with each new day to be just a little less disappointed. |
Wide receiver depth addressed!
We got ourselves Denzel Mims for a conditional 6th rounder and a 7th rounder. A potential reclamation project of a former 2nd rounder or another waste of late round picks for a player who would have just been cut, because he’s not good (see, also, kicker Riley Patterson). Hoping for the former, betting on the latter. |
I think we should add some REAL lions on the field.
|
Quote:
|
I wonder though if anybody could then beat San Fransico with their undead 49ers.
|
Quote:
Subscribed as #hopeful, I liked him a lot in his draft |
I realize that I am probably underrating the value of 5th-7th round picks as special teams bodies, etc.
But I think that NFL teams in general way overrate the value of those picks. Every offseason, you see teams shopping players like Mims (former high pick who didn't work out), and it is like pulling teeth to get a conditional 6th rounder for them. If I were a GM, I'd almost always be trading those picks for lottery tickets on guys who might just need a change of scenery. |
Quote:
I think the value in them late picks is financial. A 6th round pick is locked in for, what?, 4 years at nearly minimum salary? That's great for depth, special teams, or one-dimensional situational players. |
Quote:
Would love to see the Bears and Lions vs the Commanders. Commander: You there! STOP and surrender! LION: RAWWWWR! (mauls commander team) |
Quote:
I would actually watch a game between the Titans and the Giants. I would avoid watching the Browns at all costs. |
The Saints would be martyred, but they'd make the other team feel guilty for killing them.
|
We all spend so much offseason NFL time thinking and planning and speculating and predicting for all of the teams. And the league is kinda sorta just an random number injury generator when it comes down to it. |
Quote:
Luckily, it appears not to be serious and the MRI showed no structural injury. Hopefully, that remains the case. |
This kid cannot get to the Lions soon enough... |
Quote:
Agreed! He’s the physical manifestation of Dan Campbell football. |
Looking more and more like the inevitable trade for a mid-round pick to another team in a season or two with the hope that a "fresh start" can help get him "back on track." |
Yeah, I desperately want to give Jamo the benefit of the doubt, but he seemed disappointed to have been picked by the Lions on draft day & has seemingly been wrestling with himself ever since. The Lions have had more than their share of delusional young WRs which is probably coloring my judgment, but patience is wearing thin.
|
The vibes around Jamo have been pretty bad. I just hope it’s way too early and things turn around or that this is just a bunch of surface stuff. It’d be a tough blow for the organization for him not to work out.
|
Lions are signing Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater!
Hendon Hooker is still hurt and won’t likely be ready this year and Nate Sudfeld must not be cutting it in camp. I like it. |
Definitely seems like a good idea. A Goff injury would've put a quick end to whatever dreams this team has.
|
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:39 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.