So the PM count resets at 9pm central right? I don't suppose we get to stockpile unused PM's? :)

Path has dibs on her

no no - it's 4 PM's within 24 hours

I LOL'd.

This is correct. With-in any given 24 hour period you may have 4 PMs.

lol oh i get it. the vote wasn't necessarily serious...it was cuz path dissed on your girl hmm?

Just pointing out that we make no promises of coverage at any time, but especially between 2-6 AM Central. So if you want to sleep you've got a good 4 hours right there :)

Oh ok, so if I send my first PM at 6am and then three more after that, I would be able to send a PM again on 6am the following day.

Correct.

Yessir...unless your name is Path and you die.

I've always been in favor of the lynch rather than no-lynch policy as a villager. The more information we have to analyze as the game goes on will give us the edge to out the wolves.

See you in the morning.

I had this plan to read up on all this and have all this stuff to say, but frankly, no dice. Confused is not the word I would choose for my state of mind, but it's not far off. I understand what's going on, as much as anyone, but we're simply in a position where we don't have enough information to properly judge just WTH is going on. We might need to let some of our private role actions run their course to better determine what we will do.

So until then, I think I will not be doing the post circus tonight, but instead hope for some more action to guide us tomorrow. I will try to find time to check in from work. Should be before the full 24 hour deadline (yes, I realize we may not reach it, but I'm not ready to throw out the "just in case" Day One vote in a game like this).

I'm just quoting your post because you already had things nicely laid out. One thing I want to point out about 2. is a third possibility, that if we miss the 24 hour window for getting at least 40% of the votes on someone that there is no lynch, the wolves get to make their night kill, and votes get reset. The rules are ambiguous on that point:

For a lynch to occur the leading vote getter must have a certain % of the total player votes. The farther away from the last lynch it has been the lower the percentage that is required. It is unknown what % is needed at what time except that between 23 hours and 23 hours 59 minutes 59 seconds since the last lynch 40% of votes must be on the leading candidate in order for a lynch to occur. As soon as the required % is reached lynching will occur instantly, rendering invalid any votes cast after that one.

My guess regarding 1. is that their kills are going to be tied to our lynches, otherwise our best strategy would be to lynch as quickly as we could at all times to keep them at a disadvantage (to say it more simply, we'd get more lynches than they'd get night kills). I don't think this is the case personally.

I guess the question is, do we want to try to work the votes in some way to find out more information regarding the lynch / night kill system? The possibilities (and disadvantages) it seems to me are:

1. Pile on a lot of votes on someone to see what % is needed at an earlier time and to confirm that night kills are tied to lynches. Downsides for this one, less useful voting history, useful villager powers that are used every x hours will take longer to reset.

2. Have fewer than 40% of the votes on people at 24 hours to see what % is needed to lynch past that time and see if night kills are tied to lynches or time. Downsides are there may be no lynch if we can't get as much as 40% of the votes on someone by 24 hrs.

3. Because of 2's possibility of no-lynch, we ensure we have at least 40% of the votes on someone between 23-24 hrs. Downside is we don't learn as much about the system, but otherwise less overall risk than 1. and 2.

I'd like to see some people's thoughts on which way they think we should go. My vote will almost assuredly go to someone who is not contributing much.

That's a great observation.

I don't disagree with your last sentence, but until we have something to work with, we just have to go with what makes the most sense. At this point we don't have any information regarding character abilities or if game events will occur. Personally early on I favor voting for low posters. If they are villagers, they aren't contributing a lot to working out what our strategy should be. I'd rather lynch someone for that than for a typo like what happened to Autumn last game.

We absolutely do NOT try to vote with the purpose of manipulating the vote count just to figure out what type of math is involved underneath the engine here. The biggest weapon that the villagers have is the vote track record. It is the reason why many people argue that you should always lynch in debates in some games. So if you are going to have a lynch, it needs to be done in a way to provide information for later days.

Chances are that whatever happens with the vote, we will still get information regarding 1) The math behind it and 2) How the wolf kill ties into it.

For either of those, it will likely take 2-3 lynch votes before we can narrow things down specifically, but if all three days a wolf kill occurs in the near timing to the lynch vote that should be a pretty good clue for us. As for the math, we should be able to start working out some of that regardless of when it occurs.

So the value added by forcing an early vote to determine early day vote percentages is very small compared to the value that is added later in the game when looking at who voted where and why.

I agree Alan. And if we are assuming the wolves need a lynch before they get a night kill, then we probably want to delay that lynch as much as possible. That gives us more time to use any special actions our characters might have and for any info generated by them to come out.

[OOC: It's my day to have a migraine it seems, so not sure how much I will be able to post today, sorry about that.]

Ok, that makes sense.

So at this point, we have two votes, right? One for EagleFan and one for Path12? We will never have a reason to lynch the poor, unfortunate day-1 soul. Let's get some votes going and create that vote history.

New sig, are you crazy?!? Did you not see what all happened since I adopted this!


We'll talk.

As good a reason for a day 1 vote as any! Well, that and I'm bitter at missing Labyrinth (my fault, not his but I'll still blame him).

vote The Jackal

Out again for a while, will be back on around 3 pm CST and for the rest of the night.

Might as well make my voice heard...

VOTE BRIAND

As far as the role reveal discussion, I'm kind of in Schmidty's (I think it was him) shoes, I think I'm fairly irrelevant right now so it doesn't hurt me but I don't really see the benefit when the wolves likely know the extra roles.

I'm around, but not sure what direction to go today. When that happens, I try to analyze the game from a rules perspective.

So I've been trying to figure out the purpose of night 0 to see if it could lead to any clues about gameplay.

One possibility that I have seen used in other games was a 'recruitment' period where the leader of the wolves was able to pick out the players to join his side to fill out the wolf team. The problem with this in this game is that I am sure balance is difficult enough already and Hoops and BK would want to control what roles are on what side. Since all roles went out prior to night 0, I think this possibility is highly unlikely.

Other reasons to have a night 0 (and a long one at that) is just to allow pre-game actions or communications between players. I didn't have any action or PM ability during night 0, so I'm just making assumptions, but that is the only thing that makes sense.

So maybe it is a combination of the two. Maybe the Conspiracy team does have a conversion capability, and it began during night 0. This does fall in line with the TV show, I believe as some of the good guys were "turned" to the bad side during the run of the show.

Thoughts?

Only one reason for this vote...

vote PB

there's no benefit to a role reveal. there might be benefit to the 2 people that are both on the block PM-ing somebody in the CoT with their roles so that that person can do a private analysis of which set of powers is worse to lose though. that way they don't have to publicly reveal.

In the show, plenty of people who were in positions of good turned out to be bad. In addition, lots of good people were blackmailed into doing bad things...including Jack. I don't think a turning would be at all out of the question. I also wouldn't see a conditional turning being out of the question. "Player X gets night-killed unless a vote-leading wolf gets free". "Your minor victory condition goes away unless something happens".

I very seriously doubt thatthe wolves kill power is tied to us voting. I would much rather suspect it's tied to a straight timer -- every 24 hours, starting 12 hours into the game?

they dont know all the extra roles, only a couple.

either way, i still say that a mass reveal is useless to the village...if the roles are vaguely connected to the character, we could possibly give the conspiritor the ability to narrow down their choices on some of our critical roles.

Hi AlanT *waves*

I definitely agree with this. If we mess around with voting to try to figure out mechanics we lose the usefulness of the vote record which is our number one weapon against the wolves.

My point exactly.

i am going to go ahead and vote...since i called him out in my last game and was right, might as well go with the anger at getting lynched instead of him vote

vote the jackal

I assume that this is purposely ambiguous as to whether or not he's gone for good?

WTF just happened...in the time it took me to post/refresh, EF is vanished...the wolves either had a day kill mechanic, or their clock is running from a different point in time.

FWIW all - EF dissapearing doesn't surprise me and I believe he is not gone for good. I don't think it's a positive or a negative, but it's not a surprise.

Yeah, that does seem intentionally vague. But this game isn't predicated on waiting around for us to lynch someone.

The vote is kinda random - don't want to put a third vote on Jackal because I'm in favor of starting races whenever possible, Brian hasn't played for a while, I always vote for ntn.

VOTE PATH12

This could be like that power from Abe's game where a wolf had the ability to 'fake arrest' a player to remove them for a period of time. On page 1 it lists him as vanished and not killed, so I don't think he's killed.

I don't necessarily feel that I am giving too much information away by saying this, but I did have a night 0 action. I had to submit something to Hoops/BK before the game started as well. Based on my instructions, it felt to me that Night0 was a pre-planning period for particular roles that had to submit names or preferences of certain abilities. My role is not one that has any extra PM ability, so I don't know if anyone else might have had PM powers on night 0.. but my guess is with everyone in the game having limited PM rights, I don't expect too many roles built around some form of PM "power". The only thing I could think of would be either the ability to "eavesdrop" PMs from others, or someone who might have an extra number of PMs that they are allowed to do in a time period.

:welcome:

It doesn't necessarily have to be a wolf power either. It could be a mechanism someone has to interrogate a player, or a good guy with the ability to lock up someone and prevent them from using their action for a day perhaps even.

Without more information, bad idea to jump to conclusions.

I'm wondering who everyone is PMing, because my inbox is certainly not full.

I'm guessing my vote for EF just became useless. I'd theorize that he went underground to avoid a lynch, but one vote shouldn't be enough to scare anyone away. He may very well have been captured by the conspiracy.

Not me. I haven't received a single PM from anyone this game other than Barkeep and Hoopsguy who both love me. :)



Anyways, with that I'm out for a 10:30 meeting. Will check in when I can this afternoon!

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see what if anything he says when he returns.

That is not correct in this instance.

wow that's a pretty interesting development with EF. I wonder if he's gone "off the grid" somehow where he can get some information, but not post.

So we can't find EF but we can lynch him anyway? Sweet. :)

As it is, I'm hoping to learn something from his return, so:

Unvote EagleFan

LOL! I wonder how that works? ;)

Couple of votes on me, and I'm not going to be around a lot during the day so I'll put a second vote out there on someone who is notoriously quiet.

VOTE NTNDEACON

what's the vote count like? anyone got a running chart?

Path: nfg (305, 11:35 PM) Tyrith (347, 9:14 am)
The Jackal: Purdue Brad (328, 8:16 AM) saldana(343, 9:10 am)
BrianD: Pass (330, 8:23 AM)
NTN: JAG (332, 8:31 AM) path (360, 9:42 am)
PB: EagleFan (334, 8:59 AM)

thanks mr-GM

Ok, here's my situation - I go to work in about 1/2 hour, and of course have to get ready first. I work until about 6.p.m. EST. After that, I should be around most of the evening.

Also, I didn't receive a PM from anyone, so that was kind of a bummer. Anyway, see you all later.

Gotta love votes that have absolutely nothing to do with the game. See how you like having votes on you, PB.

Vote PB

Does EF's vote count if he is still "vanished" when the lynch goes down?

Somebody needs to break the current tie:

Vote The Jackal

For now

VOTE NTN

Any reason why you're voting for me? People think I need a break after running a game here, or what?

I guess I'll have to switch.

unvote PB
vote NTN

DT, if you were anyone other than Jack Bauer, I would call your vote suspicious for tying things up right after I un-tied them.

On the way out the door. This will be the only day that I won't be around pretty much the whole day.

Maybe on the vote counts it would be useful to also include percentage of vote in addition to the easy to read total votes. Since the lynch appears to be percentage driven.

So for instance this vote would be

8% - Path
13% - The Jackal
4% - BrianD
13% - NTN
8% - PB

So instead of going after UTR players, which was the first proposed idea, you're gonna latch on to two votes for me that were made because, 1) I hate the penguins, and 2) saldana was right about me being a wolf two games ago? Bleh.

I think it's way too early to be worried about that.

Honestly...none whatsoever. I'm just trying to spur conversation by putting people at risk.

Is it ever too soon to be paranoid? :)

Alright, I really don't have much to say aside from pointing out the silliness of the first two votes on me.

And you voted for me. Since I'm a non-conspiracy guy, you must be a conspiracy guy. That means I really SHOULD be worried about that already. How's that for paranoid?

Your vote total is still relatively low. Lots of time for stuff to happen.

I don't really want to vote for path, he keeps being targeted early in games and not getting a chance to play, and he's definitely a damned useful villager. I'd rather give him a pass on day 1.

NTN is usually a very low poster, which are always hard for me to get reads on late in games, so I'm comfortable with that for now, but he's more than welcome to come here and talk it out.

Not bad -- but that's something people do all the time in WW games, so you're nowhere near being 'through the looking glass' yet.

I know. It has been a while since I've played WW, so I'm just flexing my paranoid tendencies. All in good fun. :D

So we have a race then.

UNVOTE PATH12
VOTE THE JACKAL

Looks like the percentages are climbing now a bit. I'll buy the line of thinking that ntn hasn't posted anything really yet, and even in normal games he doesn't necessarily say enough to really draw attention. That causes him to easily slip under the radar quite often.

Vote ntndeacon

This looks like an interesting 2 horse race. I'll contribute:

Vote NTN

Let's keep it close.

vote The Jackal

work just smacked me in the face. if somebody else wants to take up the keeping track of votes for today that'd be cool.

and my reasons for tying it back up had more to do with trying to get conversation out of ntn (or PB who was my other thought for a vote) and not buying the non-game excuses for Jackal and wanting to contribute to that runaway.

I agree with what Alan said about Path too, so I wasn't about to go there.

Ideally I'd hope to find out more about ntn or pb through putting them under the gun.

You said this about 20 minutes ago, you see why I was annoyed now? This is foolish.

Well this is getting interesting.

I'm trying to tie EF's disappearance with the actual show. Some random ideas:
A) He's some kind of agent that has gone "off the grid".
B) He's being interrogated by Jack?
C) He's in some log cabin in the middle of the woods with Jack's daughter and some mountain lions.

You mean.. what I said about path?

Hey everyone. My computer decided to crap the bed this morning and so far is still not working. I'll be scarce until I get it fixed, try to catchup later.

Good luck with that.

ugh. no fun

I laughed.

correction - what Jackal said about Path

I'd rather see votes on NTN (usually quiet) PB (no read yet), or Brian (no read yet) than Jackal, who I think seems to be experiencing a D1 runaway based on non-game factors.

in fact, how many posts does ntn have in the game so far?

Thanks, Jack.

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