wow...i put the nail in the wolf's coffin and end up getting measured for my own.

I cant really answer to anything that is being said about me at this point, because I can actually see the logic behind it.

that said, i am going to vote lathum, and here's why...he is a great wolf...his arch enemy got night killed....everyone would assume he is too good a wolf to do something so obvious....the then calls out the obviousness of it.


that, and i am pretty much backed into a corner and have to vote in self defense...fortunately, I dont feel like this is a wasted vote to save myself.
vote lathum

I've only been able to read quickly, but first of all want to apologize if I got defensive last night -- it was really a shitty day and I think I overreacted. Not the first nor last time I suppose. :)

Anyway, looking over Narc's and others points and thinking it over last night, saldana's late switch seems most suspicious to me. I don't necessarily see the Eaglefan argument and though Lathum seems touchy, it's not all that out of character for him. ;) I always have trouble reading Lathum anyway, so I'll just continue to watch that for now.

VOTE SALDANA

Will be back when I can. 24 emails in the 90 minutes I've been at work. Sigh.

6-4-2 Saldana leading over Lathum, plus Lathum's vote is on a third party right now. Both Sal and Lathum are on my list of possible vote choices anyhows, so I guess I'll just keep things closer. Since Lathum can move his vote anyhows, this seems a fairly done deal. I'm not terribly upset though as I don't think Saldana is necessarily a bad choice for a lynch today.

Vote Lathum

Vote Count as I have it

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302)

Lathum 5: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

No vote: SnDvls

You should also add in the fact that I rairly buy the set up mode too...my next post in that sequence.

Vote Saldana

Narc's argument is strongest out there to me.

some days I really really hate my job :(

Saldana 7: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302), SnDSvls (306)

Lathum 5: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

I am suggesting that barring other considerations, players might make a kill as "revenge" (like D1 votes). Whether he was accused or not was irrelevant, as if he was he would offer the "we've got history" rationale he's currently been offering.

While on one level I understand why people are voting for saldana, on another it's completely baffling. I really think that this idea that voting FOR a wolf makes you suspicious is perverse. We've seen times where wolves act like that, but to think it every time we find a wolf, as it seems to have happened, creates weird incentives.

Also, I want to make clear that I've made a case against Lathum. But it's a Day 2 case. On a scale of 1-10, it's about a 5 or 6 in terms of suspicion. This just happens, being Day 2, to be higher than others.

ok, guess i gotta air it out...unfortunately, work has kept me from being able to do it sooner


I'm The Boy.

i tried to follow lathum last night and didnt see anything of consequence

thats all i got for now...probably little chance of being saved by this at this point, since i am sure most people wont believe me.

go customers

Bk, I think the case against Saldana, or at least my case against Saldana is more when and how he voted than who he voted for.

Sal originally pushed Render up in the vote count 4-3 over Claphamsa earlier in the day. He was around throughout the time after that vote based on his interaction in the thread, but it was only once Path placed his vote on PurdueBrad, and there was 30 minutes left that things seemed fairly locked up as a PB lynch (barring any odd day 1 late movement for some unknown reason) that Saldana moved his vote to PB.

Saldana's vote for PB did not effect the final lynch other than being a "cushion" vote, but when he made the vote, his reasoning for it didn't really make any sense, to which he afterwards stated he was mixed up on who was leading which is why his comment seemed to make no sense.

So really Saldana doesn't gain too much trust voting for a condemned man, and his reasoning for the vote didn't buy any extra trust either. I'm not currently voting for Saldana, but that mostly is because I always find him suspsicious, and this game may be the same for me. I totally can understand why others would vote for him though.

from my pm, it does not appear that I was able to see everything he did all night.

Sal, is your ability 100%, so by following Lathum, it is clear he didn't have any part in Render's death last night?

it says i did my best to follow him..i got from that, that it was not 100%

Just curious, because the rules said that there is "a chance" of determining if someone did something by following them for your role. I know even though I'm just a customer, my PM pretty much was cut and paste from the rules from what I saw, so figured yours would be to some extent.

Obviously if you are telling the truth, it would be bad to lose you, but then the next person to get it would be Lathum whom you said you followed and there is a chance he didn't kill Render, which would probability wise drop him a little bit in the chance of being a wolf.

Interesting. Since it doesn't look like there's any steam on EF, I'll put some pressure on Lathum here and see if those of you on sal believe the boy reveal.

unvote EF

vote lathum

anyone else out there willing to move?

I'd be willing but if I'm the only one Lathum is the tie breaker

unvote Saldana
vote lathum

here goes nothing

and from the PM i got, "the chance" of finding out if they did something manifested itself in my ability to follow him all night.

as far as your second point, the robbers have to name their killer each night, so the fact that lathum may not have actually killed render is not entirely vindicating.

dola to alan's point

That doesn't really mesh with the rules. The rules state that multiple robbers can attack every night, just they can only attack one person each night. Unless you know something that I don't know.

i gotta go to a meeting, so i am out until after the lynch...hopefullly i will still be alive, and someone will protect me tonight, since i cant do much as an 11 year old

If the robbers supposedly didn't take any money last night based on the night writeup from jeheinz, I guess my belief was that they doubled up on the night kill. Which is why I think this line of questioning is pretty valid.

alan, see my post above yours

I assume what sal is saying is that Lathum could be bad and could've just been trying to steal money and not been involved in the kill. Wonder if they boy would witness someone stealing money, that might be a little overpowered.

But you're probably right that they doubled up on the kill, Alan, which makes me skeptical about having Lathum be the lynchee. Can we have a run on EF? ;)

I have no idea what the boy can or can't witness, but it does seem that it is not 100% which Saldana also suggests from his posts. I guess my interpretation of the rules is that every player in this game gets a night action, regardless of robbers or customers or other roles. I don't see robbers just sitting around doing nothing, and since I was led to believe that no money was stolen and no one reported stopping anyone from stealing money, that they teamed up for a kill.. So if Saldana is telling the truth about being the boy, and telling the truth about following Lathum, and telling the truth that he didn't see Lathum do much.. it makes me wonder about Lathum being bad.

That said, I think normally Lathum would be someone that Saldana would have normally chosen if he had a special role, that seems consistant for him. I also think Lathum would be a poor choice to lie about having followed if he wasn't telling the truth due to the same reason as my line of questioning just now..

So I'm starting to feel ok with Saldana's reveal, but I'm not really in any situation to do anything to help him because my vote already was not on him.

At this point, with so few people around, I don't see that happening.. So if I had to choose, I'd rather lose a plain vanilla villager (if that is what Lathum is), than lose a witness role (if that is what Saldana is).. so even though I'm now second guessing both of those choices, I'd rather see Lathum get lynched than Saldana.

Lathum 7: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303), Jackal (317), SnDvls (319

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302), SnDSvls (306)

EagleFan 1: Lathum (238)

FWIW Alan, I doubt anyone that protects the money gets a PM if they were successful - from what I remember from the previous game, if money gets stolen we all find out the next day. I could be wrong, just posturing.

Another line of thinking, does the boy only witness the stealing of money and not the kill?

vote count is correct, but you have me listed twice

I think it's the exact opposite. The boy would witness a kill, not sure if they'd witness someone stealing money. But like Alan has said, it's a percentage thing, not always accurate.

So the last time this game ran, if someone successfully kept someone from stealing the money, there was never any notification of this interaction? The only note was that no money had been stolen from the bank the previous night (like what we heard on night 1) ?

Actually, in reading the boy's role, heinz leaves it open to the boy being able to see someone stealing money. "a chance to see what they are up to" is pretty general.

The rules has it listed fairly vaguely saying "See what they are up to", but that makes me think watch any action, just with a chance of success/failure each night.

Here's to hoping his reveal is not fake. I actually tend to believe it as he seemed to answer the questions about his PM quite well (or at least did his homework).

unvote saldana

vote Lathum

I don't think it works like that straight up. I think if the robbers attempt to steal money, the amount they get depends on how many people are protecting it.

If they are able to steal any money one of these nights, we can hear from people that happened to be protecting it and see if they got PMs.

Lathum 8: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303), Jackal (317), SnDvls (319), Lathum (338)

Saldana 5: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302),

EagleFan 1: Lathum (238)

So if they choose to steal money, they'll always get money but the amount depends on how many people protect it?

That is my understanding of it. I don't know if they are assured of money though, I'd imagine if there are enough people protecting it that the robbers would be repelled.

Hmm.. well if that carries over to this game, then that only furthers my belief that they didn't try for money and they tried for the kill last night then.

I'd tend to agree with you. I for one was protecting the money and received no sort of PM, but we'll get more information as we get more nights of activity.

I actually was going to protect the money yesterday but changed my mind last minute after we lucked out with PurdueBrad. I wasn't sure if they would target me for that or not and guarded myself. I actually confused jeheinz with my PM that he had to ask for clarification of which action I actually was asking to do.

Looking at a few things:

SNDvls - unvote Render, vote Clap (119) 4-4-3-2-1 (clap tied with Render)
Packer - unvote clap, vote Purdue (122) 4-4-3-2-1 (PB tied with Render)
clap - unvote Jackal, vote Purdue (125) 5-4-3-1-1


This tells me that Packer and clap lean on the good side. With clap and RendeR tied (one a known non-wolf) why would Packer switch from clap to PB if all three were wolves? Then why would clap vote PB to break the tie between RendeR and PB?

Probably not explaining my thoughts properly at the moment as I am being quick about it but that jumped out at me when I read the chain of events. Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I haven't read everything all the way through yet.

Always good to throw thoughts out there EF.

I think we're all pretty certain they tried for the kill last night and I think RendeR can vouch for that. ;)

They have independant actions. One can kill and one can steal money from my interpretation of the rules.

Again you gather to decide upon today's lynch. 3 main candidates present themselves and then a showdown of sorts between saldana and Lathum. Saldana purports that he has been tailing people at night and that seems to curry favor with a few voters. In the end, it is decided that Lathum is the best bet.

He's strung up and left to die. Upon further examination you find a map that appears to outline the underground of the bank and numbers in the form of a safe code on sheet of paper. Yep, it's certain, Lathum was a ROBBER!

Night 2 has begun, night actions are due at 3 PM EST.

Very nice start to this game.

Ha, ownage.

yes!!!!

Huh... well that was incredibly lucky.. I had written off in my head that Lathum was actually good based on the last 30 minutes.

I'm hoping one of the cops puts in a protection order for Saldana

wow

In case I die tonight, figure I'd throw out thoughts for day 3..

People who have voted for wolves both days:

Saldana - 2
Eaglefan - 2
Alan - 2

People who voted for wolves 1 of 2 days:

Narcizo - 1
Packerfanatic - 1
Claphamsa - 1
path12 - 1
St.Cronin - 1
Barkeep - 1
Illinifan - 1
The Jackal - 1
Sndvls - 1

People who have not voted for a wolf yet:

ntndeacon


So right now ntn is not looking too good. I also think even though some people only voted for 1 of 2 wolves, there are several of them whom I feel that I like their votes, actions or comments more than the rest: Sndvls, claphamsa and the jackal all feel relatively ok to me.

So trust/distrust list for me right now is:


Feel pretty good about:

Saldana, Eaglefan, The Jackal, Claphamsa, Sndvls

Slight ok feeling about:

Narcizo, Barkeep

Neutral feeling about:

Packerfanatic, St.Cronin, Path12, Illinifan

Needs to be looked at:

ntndeacon

I tend to think this makes a CoT of saldana. I see no reason for a fake reveal to then vote for another wolf which would give us two wolves and only a counter reveal from the real boy to nab us a third wolf.

dola If that was a fake reveal and he is not the boy I think this would be a good time for the real boy to reveal as this gives us a third wolf. If not we at least have a CoT started.

Trust me, I tried to figure out in my head some way he fake revealed but I can't think of any logical scenario where he can't be telling the truth.

Will be back later. Got the wife home and had time to check the thread for a few but ned to go get lunch.

True, I can't think of how that would make sense at all but we still should ask the real boy to come forward if for some reason this is a fake. Until that happens saldana is clearly in my CoT.

Catching up. I lol'd.

Agree. I've got saldana as high trust in my mind after this.

At this point if it's a fake reveal there is no reason for the real boy to not come out -- we're down two robbers and I doubt there was more than three to start based on the number of players.

Too bad I wasn't around, I likely would have switched (that sounds pretty corny, but just throwing it out there)

Way to go guys.

Nice. There's no reason for the boy not to reveal under these circumstances, so - sorry about that Sal.

well that suck.

Had I not been at school I think I could have talked my way out of that, if nothing else it would have been interesting.

As the day begins you realize another person is missing. You scour the place again and back in the employee break room you see legs coming out from behind the fridge. Opening the fridge you find a head, the head of the one called The Jackal.

Rifling through his clothes you find his wallet and in it, his business card. It reads

Jack Al Loserman
Professional Male Belly Dancer


Looks like he was just a Customer making a deposit!


A reminder, I'm on the road most of tomorrow so I"m making the deadline 4 PM EST for the lynch. If no one objects, night actions will also be due then and I'll run them at the same time (since I'd like to get to drinking and not have to come back online). Any level of conditional complication is fine.

Oh, I should add, since I may not be exactly online, that the deadline is at 4 PM EST tomorrow whether I'm here to "call" it or not. Only votes before then will count.

Results will then be up betwen then and 5 or so

Day 4 deadline would then by Monday at the usual time.

why are they not taking money?

this is almost as ridiculous as last time we played this version..... just the other direction!

We are on a hot streak right now!

I can't decide if I think ntn's not having voted for a wolf is damning or not. I'm inclined to think not, because so much is accepted that wolf vote for wolves. I think that idea is, as I've stated repeatedly this game, currently a loser for the wolves, but it seems to be the idea. So I think it's far more likely that ntn just got it wrong twice, which is still a very small sample size. Very small.

That to me means that the most logical place to look would be the 1 wolf faction. This is not to exonerate EF and Alan, but simply to state that if they are wolves by voting for wolves twice they've done a lot to help our cause anyway and so they can have a little break.

Has anyone put together one of those vote histories for D1 and D2? I think something like that would definitely effect my thinking on who to vote for D3.

I don't get that either. They don't win without money do they? Or is it a minor victory?

There are several levels where their not going after the money is puzzling, but I would suggest at this point that they are feeling the need to keep up the night kill with limited resources (in terms of manpower).

Given the apparent uncertainty of making night kills and the fact that there are two bodyguards (albeit not perfect one's either), I think it's quite possible there are two wolves left. If that is the case then a wolf has to have voted for a wolf. To my mind I think there's far less likely to be a wolf on wolf vote on the second day. With a wolf already knocked out I can't see the wolves getting cute voting for one of their team. EagleFan isn't going to like this again but of the lot I'd say his vote is probably the weakest wolf vote on day two as it seems his vote wasn't crucial given an uncontested reveal. Then again it seems a bit unlikey he'd vote twice for a wolf, were he a wolf, unless he's shooting for some sort of record. Otherwise with both Packer and clap pretty high up my list for the manner of their voting yesterday that pretty much leaves path and me from yesterday.

The simplest direction to go at the moment is for NTN though. Let's be honest, his play style means we're never going to come up with anything concrete to damn him with other than his voting record. As his voting record speaks for itself I'm hard pressed to see a reason not to vote for him today.

I'll think about it overnight though and put together another voting record if no-one jumps in while I'm sleeping.

Like us they get a minor victory without the cash. All them getting the cash/us keeping it gets is a major rather than minor win. Given their current situation I would imagine shooting for a major win is the least of their concerns at the moment.

Yeah, I'm not real sure where to go today just yet with my vote. I brought up ntndeacon's name last night because I figured being the only person to not have voted for a wolf yet this game was worth at least someone following or looking into him a bit.

I'd like some info from Saldana on who he followed last night and found out. Since his reveal is out there anyways, that info can help us. Otherwise I think I agree that the day 2 non-wolf voters seem the best place to look.. I can't imagine they'd want to let a wolf die two straight days so they have to have voted away from Lathum. Perhaps one of the ones who voted for Saldana and tried to get people to look at a Saldana v Eaglefan run off earlier in the day would be a good start.

Out of the group: Narcizo , Packerfanatic, NTNDeacon, claphamsa, path12 I feel a bit better about Narcizo and claphamsa.

That leaves us Packerfanatic, ntndeacon and path from that group that I'm mostly focusing on and want to go back and review posts. If Saldana at least followed one of that group and reported not seeing anything, it at least can narrow it down a little more (even if there is a chance his following ability simply failed, we should play the percentages at this point)

going to throw this out there for now

vote path

he pings me the worst of the three (PF, ntn, path)

also [Real Life Info] they are doing a network equipment upgrade here at the office some time tomorrow between 12:01 am & 4 PM for 4 hours, but they can't narrow down a time frame so I need to get this in now to make sure it's done [/Real Life Info]

This has been a strange first two days/nights, to say the least. At least we are ahead.

I'll look over things tonight after Survivor. Will be offline until then.

Would that be because the other two have said hardly anything? ;) (granting that I've not been around as much as I'd like).

Ah well. Good luck customers. And I've actually given a belly dance to a chick, so that works.

VOTE NTNDEACON

Seems like a pretty easy vote to me.

Really? Why? Because of two votes? Flipping a coin twice suggests we should have a lot more than 1 person who is in this boat. I think our sample size is way way too small to draw such a confident conclusion.

By easy I don't mean I know ntn is a robber. I just mean it doesn't seem like there's a good reason to vote for anybody with a better voting record.

Like yesterday, I'm trying to keep things simple with my vote.

wow...i am surprised i am alive today...i wish i could take credit for nailing lathum, but if he hadnt been the next leading vote getter, nothing i said acutally incriminated him

as far as last night, I put in to follow Alan, but was not able to see exactly what he was doing (i just know he was doing something)

reason for picking alan? the fact that he wasnt after me at all was actually alarming to me...he usually wants nothing more than to lynch me, which usually puts us in a showdown, which he usually wins, but then he takes heat for getting me lynced when i am a villager.

again, i dont know what he was doing, simply that he was doing something.

I'm intrigued.

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE ALAN T

I'll go along with this for now (saldana is the only CoT member at the moment for me anyway), unless I get a better feel from somewhere else when I read back through this.


vote Alan T

how is anyone getting "i think we should vote for Alan" out of what i said?!

every player in the game has a night action...hell, i have one and i am only 11....the fact that he was doing something is meaningless.

For me it wasn;t based on what you said about his action when you followed him but your observation about his play and how it has deviated.

ive been very quiet :( this sucks. I hate hurricanes. and people who are in charge of hurricane responders! they anger me!

I'm intriguiged too.

Vote st.cronin

/agree with EagleFan

To elaborate: I think there's a definite difference between assumign the simplest possible reason for an action and doing the simplest possible action. To me it's simple to vote NTN, given the record, but the simplest reason for NTN being 0-2 is not that he's a wolf. Or if it's not the simplest it's equally as simple as his being a wolf.

Fair enough, BK. I'll point out in my defense that I cast the first vote on Lathum, and I think was the first to mention him as a suspect - basically using the same logic that got me to ntn today.

Of course, now I'm voting for Alan, but whatever.

Looking into it ntn has been very quiet so it is hard to get any read. One could question the timing of his votes being placed that they were intentionally placed to try to keep any suspicion on him. Of course it could just be that was the only time frame in which he could get online and in that case his votes mean nothing ad he is just a villager being over-analyzed.

I lean towards the Alan T vote because the analysis from saldana (someone easily in CoT at this point) pointing to a difference in Alan's normal play style towards him.

I still don't see any patterns yet other than what I pointed out in the day one votes. That points to a good feeling for PF and clap though they have not hit the CoT all the way yet like saldana.

This is going to defeat the point, I've been making, but if a wolf is willing to bury him or herself in a hole by voting wolf 2 days in a row, I think the least we can do is give them a day of credit. We don't know what a view from saldana looks like on a "good guy" so there is some logic to killing Alan to find out, if we had the expectation that saldana would be around tomorrow to help us out with another view. But if Alan is good, it's likely that saldana's view isn't all that worthwhile anyway thus killing a good guy to prove that isn't worth it, when factoring in other positives (if that makes sense).