Plus the whole fact I'm human so you'd learn nothing. ;)

I don't think we know. Cronin -- do we find this out on death?

My guess is he forgot his password ala Marshall from How I Met Your Mother. Just sing!

I thought about this as well, but the other problem is that if je is human, then that still doesn't tell us if I'm the real seer or not.

The last time I saw this mechanic it was not spelled out when a seer died. I know because I was the other one and really could have used that info (though as it turns out I was the fake then).

Yeah, Neon's game (hey one I've actually played!). My guess is we won't know if the Fake is a Fake.

Anyhow, I gotta jet. Slim slim chance I'll be back on, but not likely. I'd throw another name out there but let's just say I'm not doing too well at that (I've managed to name both the Duke and best-case the Fake Seer).

So yeah, I'm sticking with PB for tonight. At least we can "clear" that whole mess up for now.

Yeah, I don't know that I love the idea of going that way. At this point I'm open to suggestions.

Nowhere else to go but PB.

Vote Purduebrad

Still not completely sold on Pass, but he has a bye for now. Let's see what happens with PB. PB comes up good, my suspicion on Pass drops to the normal amount of suspicion I have on everyone. Because BK wasn;t saving PB.

PB comes up bad, then we have something else to look at.

From day 1 of the aborted start:

Wouldn't it suck if Brad was the other seer?

Yeah it would, but would he really "invite" votes if he was? Or would he come out so misguided on Day One?

Granted, I've never been Seer, ever, but if/when I am, I'm going to at least make sure I live to make a scan!

Anyways, I'm Audi.

Good point jeheinz

I thought I was the only one who says "I'm Audi"!

Well, I'm out. Appointment then dinner date with the wonderous yet grounded Ms. Path. Good luck to us.

vote jeheinz and doing so to hope prove that Pass is the real seer. I didn't catch the part where it said the scan would be random if he's not so this might be naive but I would assume he would scan opposite. So if Heinz is human, I would trust Pass.

Although now that I say this, I am wondering if the fake seers scans are random or always human. If I'm back from dinner, this may change although it isn't likely to change my ability to live through the night.

The rules say it's a random result.

Please don't vote this way, try to leave a line of space above and below your vote so its easy to find when skimming the thread.

-L

No explanation or anything?

Sorry I haven't been around to participate today guys.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Seems to be the smart place to vote given the seer revelations.

Hey Thomkal

Not my fault you love the Lakers. :)

You are a twister of the truth. I should vote for you!!!!

Nah. I'll go with the hive-mind because I don't know what else to do, other than I know what not to do:

Vote PurdueBrad

Was there another?

Thanks DC!

Happy birthday!!!

Now don't ever vote for me.

None that I can see, hence my vote. :)

Heh, how about not voting for you in the next hour instead? :)

Hmm, Barkeep was on path, and to my thinking, wolves tend to split their votes up. I doubt there was another wolf on path. And I don't think they would make an obvious run to "save" PB. My guess is he is a villager and the wolves laid low while we nattered away at each other.

I think at least one wolf had his vote on someone out of the debate, which is fairly common practice. And since his hit and run vote smells a little and he has been a lot less noisy than he usually is, I'm going on a hunch here.

VOTE RENDER

If he turns out a wolf, I also think Thomkal is the other wolf. It strikes me as a Render-ish sneaky play to vote the other wolf to garner trust later on if Thomkal gets caught.

PurdueBrad - 6 - Passacaglia (223), path12 (286), jeheinz72 (292), Anxiety (308), Thomkal (321), Schmidty (324)

jeheinz72 - 1 - PurdueBrad (315)

Thomkal - 1 - RendeR (318)

RendeR - 1 - Chief Rum (331)

No vote from ntndeacon that I find.

That's actually a good theory Chief Rum, but one hole in it is that I am a soldier, not a wolf.

None really needed.


This was my initial reason.


This was my secondary reason


See previous comment.



Honestly, I don't have the energy to be that sneaky CR. Its beena very long and trying few days. Between personal issues, cars breaking down, kids, and work. I'm lucky I have time to read this right onw, let alone the brainpower to comprehend it.

There is confusion regarding PB, I don't agree or disagree with any of the arguments at this point.

A Runaway vote tells us squat. So I offerred up a sacrificial Thom, so to speak.

You don't have to agree with me or vote with me if you don't want. I just want to incite a bit of thought on someone other than PB for right now.

I still don't know why Render voted for me, other than it's my birthday. :)

Well, it's my birthday tomorrow. Will he vote for me?

deadline

Not a lot of people around, but this is what I have:

PurdueBrad - 6 - Passacaglia (223), path12 (286), jeheinz72 (292), Anxiety (308), Thomkal (321), Schmidty (324)

jeheinz72 - 1 - PurdueBrad (315)

Thomkal - 1 - RendeR (318)

RendeR - 1 - Chief Rum (331)

No vote from ntndeacon that I find.

Same as in the above post. You all have a few minutes to correct me if I have missed one.

PurdueBrad has been lynched.

He was a wolf! Nice job, villagers.

Pms going out.

Awesome!

In other news, what bad play by BK to connect himself with a wolf that way

Passacaglia has been killed by wolves! He was one of the medics - but which one?

Day 3 has begun, deadline Thursday 9:00pm Eastern Time.

Crap, that means there is another one. I was hoping for a two wolf game ;)

Hmm. Sorry Pass. You just got the misfortune to get associated with two wolves. That put pressure on ya, and you had to reveal.

At least we know there is a chance we may have the real seer still out there.

Fastest game of WW in that case ;)

Let's go back and reassess the Day One votes. This may be the most important Day One vote I've seen.

Okay, here are the votes. What do we see here. Path had four people vaote for him. Three are dead, two were wolves.


There were still two AlanT votes. I can;t remember if Schmidty or RendeR came back after he revealed he was the bg. Can anyone check that?

jeheinz voted for path very early compared to the later moves. Is he a wolf who stayed?

There were three outling votes (Me, CR, and Thomkal). Did a wolf try to hide here?

Or maybe a wolf wanted a vote on PB from the beginning to get in the COT. I would not be surprised that BK, PB and the 3rd wolf discussed what to do and BK agreed to move to path rathern than have th e3rd move off PB.

Those votes are path, who is either a duke or a wal sympathizer, AlanT and ntndeacon.

Of those four scenarions, I have placed them in the order that I think they are most likely. I think the most likey scenario is that either the third wolf was alraedy on path (jeheinz) or on AlanT and chose not to move off just in case another vote or two fell that way. (Schmidty, RendeR)

Since I got flak for not including myself in my own analysis when I was Ares, I figured I'd do so here.

If we do really well today, we can get a rare three day sweep and end the game with one of the best villager wins ever!

PurdueBrad, I saved you a seat, come over and watch the rest of the game with me. No hard feelings! :)

Thanks Alan, I was desperately trying to save my wolf-ass on day one.

Go wolves!

Wow, we're getting tons of help here. The wolves made an odd move with PB getting himself in the Alan T tete-a-tete, and then BK stayed on path, which pointed the target more strongly at PB. Albeit, BK was almost certainly caught unawares by the duke move, but wow, what a turn!

So, are night 2 actions done?

I thought cronin ending the night was the end of the actions. Thread title says day 3

Yes.

Ok then.

Hey, at least my deductive skillz were able to help you guys bag a wolf on Day 2. Nice job rounding the village against me, PB.

Two for two. Let's get that last one, fellas!

I hate to say it, but I will be out almost all day tomorrow. It's my birthday and a friend got me and my bro and family VIP tickets to the Kings-Ducks game. We're going straight after work, so no chance to check back in until late.

So I am voting now.

Despite his protestation of innocence, I am going with Thomkal. I feel that a wolf tossed on a late vote on PB when it was all but done. IMO, the best two candidates for that are the last two voters, Thomkal and Schmidty. And Schmidty has the excuse of generally not being around early (like me).

So I am going with Thomkal for now.

VOTE THOMKAL

Wow nice! 2 for 2 baby! Sucks we might have lost a seer, but thems the breaks. Pass was painted into a bit of a corner.

As far as my Day One vote for path, it was just that, a Day One vote (because he killed me in RendeR's game when I was close to winning). Let's note that the 2 wolves we've offed voted well after I did and it's not like I had any idea of path's potential dukiness leading up to my vote.

I'd have to agree that Wolf #3 is somewhere in the "other" votes from Day One, not sure it's Thomkal or not, but I'd guess it's highly unlikely that the 3 wolves would all make their votes so visible on the first day

This could easily be right, but I do want to make the point that Anxiety's vote was only an hour and a half prior to Thomkal's vote. I think that is where I am going.

Vote Anxiety


(On another note I do apologize for not getting a vote in yesterday. I do believe Iwill be back briefly this afternoon to check but it wont be for long.)

Well I disagree with Chief Rum's theory, especially the part about voting for me since I'm a soldier, and I did not try to defend either of the two previous wolves Purdue Brad or Barkeep.

My theory is the wolf stayed away from voting for Purdue Brad yesterday because there are three at least semi-cleared people on PB-Pass (medic if he's the real one), Jeheinz (cleared by Pass), and Path (duke if he's the good one). Making it only a one in three chance of hiding amongst the rest of the PB voters.

So I think he stayed away all together, knowing people would think the wolf put a vote on PB in an attempt to hide. And hey look at that, Chief Rum didn't vote for PB.

vote Chief Rum

Good theory and all but the safest play for a wolf knowing he's going to be alone and vulnerable is to appear as much of a villager as possible. So he would, IMO, have stayed with the majority and not made any waves.

You seem to ignore in your theory as well, the fact that I and ntndeacon both voted away from PB as well.

Are we special? Is there some reason you don't suspect us but do suspect CR?

I voted for YOU yesterday, so if your theory holds any weight at all you should be voting for me, not CR, but CR is the guy you go after?

Your theory has holes the size of Montana.

VOTE THOMKAL

I certainly do suspect others who did not vote for PB, I just directed my comments towards Chief Rum because he voted for me today. And judging from how the voting is going today, I think more and more the perfect place for the wolf to hide was one of you three. I could just as easily vote for you because of your vote on me yesterday, but since CR was the one who opened the attack on me today, I voted for him.

My only issue with that is, wasn't it Thomkal's birthday yesterday (happy b-day to you both, btw), so doesn't that explain his late vote?

I'm still looking at one of Anxiety, Thomkal, Schmidty -- just not sure who.

I can't say I've ever really understood retalitory voting in WW. Just because someone votes for youk, that makes them a wolf? That's some faulty logic, isn't it?

I've always thought so, barring self defense votes.

Yeah, the only case that makes sense to me is voting for the other horse in a 2-horse race.

Anyhow, for now.

Vote Thomkal

Pending change as the days events unfold.

I understand that Day One votes are the most important,. and i don;t begrudge you voting for me, because besides two people, we really have no people in anything resembled a COT, so we have to dig.

Having said that, I do want to point out that my voe was cast at 6, Thomkal;s was an hour and a half later, then it was 7:30. With a 9 deadline, that's a big difference.

I'm amazed no one will even explore the possibility that I could be right about where the last wolf is hiding.

Your theory should be expanded to "Not vote for PB by voting for another OR by not voting at all"

I'm fine with expanding my theory to that since I'm not on that list. Look at my voting record. I did nothing to save or defend either of the two wolves. In fact other than saying I was fine with voting Purdue Brad after the results of day one, I've said nothing about them I believe. Does that really sound like a wolf to you?

I've been wondering about Chief since day 1 actually. He was the other person who was defending Purdue, although it was couched much more as a critique of Alan's push after he got back. I had been hoping that someone would have scanned him, but that's an iffy proposition also.

One thing I don't get, especially after the nice analysis we had yesterday, is the run on Thomkal. I don't see that at all. Other than the Chief questions I've briefly noted above, the other person who intrigues me the most just by his total difference in play is RendeR.

I'll follow my gut on this one for right now anyway.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

BTW, Happy Birthday to all in this thread who are having birthdays now or in the next year. Don't want to leave anyone out. ;)

Path is pretty much the only person in my COT other than me, and he's been money so far.

Unvote Thomkal

Vote Chief Rum

Don;t look at me - I haven;t voted for you. You are near the top of my admittedly poor suspicion list but that;s because of a Day One vote, not because you yourself rang my bell.

Vote Count?

You know very well where he's hiding.

Vote Thomkal

Vote count:

Thomkal - Chief Rum (357), Thomkal (360), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376)
Chief Rum - path12 (371), jeheinz (373)
Anxiety - ntndeacon (359)

no vote from: Anxiety

Yeah, I'm torn on where to go.

Schmidty seems awfully sure of himself, sounds like there might be something there.

Vote Thomkal

I don't think thomkal voted for himself....

Good point, Render:

Vote count:

Thomkal - 4 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)
Anxiety - 1 - ntndeacon (359)

no vote from: Anxiety

I think Anxiety has voted now too ;)

You know, even though I've been insuating this the whole game, I am a Seer/ Medic/ Geneticist. I am allowed to choose 2 people to scan a day. The first person will be scanned if he isn't lynched. If he's lynched, then the number two person will be scanned.

So far my scans are as follows:

Day 1 - ntndeacon is human

Day 2 - Thomkal is a wolf


Now, if we vote for Thomkal and he is NOT a wolf, then I am the fake seer, and Pass is the real one. If he is a wolf, I think we win. Either way, I'm either dead, or a winner, or I confirm Pass as being real. So this reveal is a good idea, I think.

Yep, stupid cut n paste:

Vote count:

Thomkal - 4 - Chief Rum (357), RendeR (361), Schmidty (376), Anxiety (379)
Chief Rum - 3 - path12 (371), jeheinz (373), Thomkal (360)
Anxiety - 1 - ntndeacon (359)

This is looking like the fastes game of WW ever.....Thom wasn't very convincing ;)

woohoo someone scaned me early cause igo under the radar. :) THis is good enough reason to change my vote.

Unvote Anxiety
Vote Thomkal

Well I hate to break it to you Schmidty, but you are the fake seer. Or the last wolf, looking for an easy target. Because I'm human. I have no way of proving that of course other than my voting record as I've said before. So if it means my death to prove it, I guess its worth it. I'd rather you vote for the last wolf instead of me though.

Sorry, I'm not convinced. I have a 50/50 chance of you being the wolf, and a much less chance of someone else being the wolf.

It's just mathematics. No offense.

Looks like I was right to follow.

No offense taken, you have to take the chance.

Schmidty, you said you could scan two people per day. Who were the other ones?

He has conditional scaning, if the person he wants to scan first gets lynched, then he scans the second.

He just gets to name 2 targets each night, not actually scan 2 people.

Dola, and why ntn and Thomkal out of curiosity?

I understand that. I want to know who the other targets were and the reasoning behind them. We have a wolf lover still out there after all......

I see what yer saying, good point too, who were they and why them?

I kind of took this exchange to mean that Schmidty was a seer of some kind. I'm not sure which though. I'd have thought that if he scanned Thomkal as a wolf I'd think it would have been a little more........well.......definitive than this exchange indicates.

And just following that up a bit further.....if he had scanned Thomkal as a wolf and knew night 2 actions were done, why did he wait until now to out him?

Copied and pasted:

Night 1 Scan

1. ntndeacon
2. Thomkal


Night 2 Scan

Scan

1. PurdueBrad (He's likely dead, but)

2. Thomkal


My reasoning was gut, since it was only the first two days, and there isn't a history to go on. Besides, if anyone knows me, I always play on guts, since I have aptitude for logic.

I am what I am. I told you what I can. That's it.

I have no idea what else to say. Ask questions I can answer, and I'll answer them; otherwise, it is what it is.

Two questions then:

1) Why weren't you sure about night 2 actions being over?

2) Why didn't you come out and vote Thomkal right after finding out he was a wolf?