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Joe 07-08-2005 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty
Does this mean you were the Seer?



I think that is revealed upon death.

Raiders Army 07-08-2005 07:27 PM

Here's how I score it:

Quote:

Day 1

Neon_Chaos: Jeebs
mrsimperless: Blackadar
Raiders Army: Blackadar
kingfc22: Blackadar first, changed to Schmidty
Thomkal: Buzzbee
heybrad: Schmidty
Fouts: Schmidty
henry296: Raiders Army
JeeberD: Schmidty first, changed to Blackadar
Raven: Buzzbee
GWB: Blackadar
TAG: Buzzbee first, changed to Blackadar
Schmidty: Blackadar

Day 2:

mrsimperless: Fouts
JeeberD: Fouts
Schmidty: Fouts
Thomkal: kingfc22
Raiders Army: Fouts
Fouts: kingfc22
Raven: kingfc22
henry296: kingfc22
TAG: Fouts
heybrad: kingfc22
ntndeacon: kingfc22
digamma: Fouts
GWB: Fouts
Neon_Chaos: No vote
kingfc22: No vote

Day 3:

Raiders Army: kingfc22
Neon_Chaos: Raiders Army first, changed to kingfc22
mrsimperless: kingfc22 first, changed to Neon_Chaos
Schmidty: kingfc22
heybrad: kingfc22
digamma: kingfc22 first, then unvoted, then kingfc22
Raven: kingfc22
kingfc22: heybrad
henry296: Neon_Chaos first, changed to heybrad
TAG: heybrad
GWB: heybrad
JeeberD: kingfc22
Thomkal: No vote
ntndeacon: No vote

So, assigning a numerical value to how people vote:

Neon_Chaos: +0.5
mrsimperless: -0.5
Raiders Army: +1
Thomkal: +0.5**
heybrad: +1.5
henry296: 0
JeeberD: +0.5
Raven: +1.5
GWB: +1
TAG: -1.5
Schmidty: +2
ntndeacon: +0.5*
digamma: 0**

*only one vote so far
**only two votes so far

Using the scale below:
+1 for being wolf target
+1 for wolf/sorceror vote without changing
+0.5 for wolf/sorceror vote on change
+0.5 for not voting against villager
0 for no vote or unknown vote
-0.5 for wrong vote on change (assuming Schmidty is a wrong vote)
-1 for not voting against wolf/sorceror
-1 for wrong vote without changing
The way I see this falling out is this:

I trust Schmidty, heybrad, Raven, and GWB. The next person on my list is Token Asian Guy. ntndeacon has to be up there as well, since he voted once out of three nights.

Raiders Army 07-08-2005 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22
Go with you gut...

Glad I went with Brain. :D

kingfc22 07-08-2005 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296
Just remember the wolves didn't know who the Sorcerer is and the Sorcerer didn't know the wolves.


Yep, it was just bad luck that I happened to change my vote for Blackadar on day 1 and that pretty much sealed my fate. Wolves, I tried my best to stay alive so that I could help.

Fouts 07-08-2005 10:05 PM

Fouts good, king bad. Enough said. :)

Neon_Chaos 07-08-2005 10:57 PM

Damn it. I knew it. This stinks. I would've been much relieved if kingfc22 was a werewolf instead. Good lynch, bad timing.

Hmmm, so this we know...

#1 The wolves did NOT know that kingfc22 was the sorceror. To them, he was also a villager.
#2 The wolves WERE happy that we selected two villagers for lynching on Day 2. I told you kingfc22 was the obvious vote. VERY OBVIOUS, in fact.
#3 This means that it doesn't matter who voted for who in Day 2, the werewolves could have voted both for Fouts and kingfc22 and they were never in danger.
#4 Based on the voting from lynching Day 1, the ones left who voted for someone else other than BlackAdar were heybrad, Raven, and me.
#5 Unless the werewolves willingly sacrificed one of their own on Day 1, then the list of suspects is very, very, very short. Raven, heybad and me all voted to lynch kingfc22 on Day 3. This certainly doesn't look good for me.

Since I [b]KNOW[b] I'm not a wolf, it's Raven and heybrad who are my primary suspects for Day 4 lynching. UNLESS, if the Wolves willingly sacrificed Blackaddar on Day 1, then we're all screwed.

Neon_Chaos 07-08-2005 10:59 PM

dola

henry296 is also on the list of those who did not vote for Blackadar, he voted for kingfc22 on Day2, and then heybrad on Day 3. He's my third suspect, but he's on the fringes because of his Day 3 vote.

JeeberD 07-08-2005 11:35 PM

Alright, way to get the bad guys, fellas. Just another two(?) wolves to go...

ntndeacon 07-08-2005 11:43 PM

I am not going to be around much tomorrow, so I guess I need to do this early instead of not voting. (sorry about that by the way.)
I vote for Heybrad

KWhit 07-09-2005 08:33 AM

Night 3:

You heard some commotion last night, but stayed in your beds, huddled under your covers in fear. This morning the common room is not as crowded as it was yesterday. Someone is missing.

It is mrsimperless. You check his room and find his body lying dead on the floor. The wolves have struck again, killing another simple villager.

KWhit 07-09-2005 08:34 AM

Alive and Kicking:
henry296
Raven
Neon_Chaos
digamma
heybrad
George W Bush
JeeberD
ntndeacon
Schmidty
Token Asian Guy
Raiders Army

Gone but not forgotten:
Blackadar - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
Fouts - Villager, lynched Day 2
Thomkal - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 2
kingfc22 - Sorcerer, lynched, Day 3
mrsimperless - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 3

KWhit 07-09-2005 08:37 AM

Votes are due to me by 8pm as usual.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 08:54 AM

I thought mrsimperless was going last night. I am going to have to go with probably ntndeacon in lieu of anything else. Primarily because he's been so quiet. The other suspects I have are TAG and heybrad. I am going to have to discount my numerical values above, since the sorc and wolves didn't know who was who. Going out for lunch, but will return later to submit my vote.

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 09:13 AM

Raiders: I think you need to check that list. I didn't vote for heybrad, I voted for kingfc22 on Day 3.

As expected, mrsimperless is taken by the wolves. Surely the bodyguard knew that they were going for mrsimperless, where was he? We could have used one more round of advantage.

Given my points above, and this quote I found from kingfc22 when he was first accused, I'm thinking that heybrad might be innocent after all. kingfc22 wanted the heat off him and the werewolves, of course, and will start naming non-werewolves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22
I still have my eye on heybrad. He DID not vote for Blackadar on the first night and then voted for me knowing that if I died it would be just another villager getting the rope. Then the wolves would have you guys lynch Fouts for his suspicious behavior on day one and we already know he WAS a villager. Then the wolves get to strike again and we would still have no clue who to target making this game practically over.


That leaves us with Raven and henry296. I'm also thinking that ntndeacon has been quite silent since the start, and very suspicious at that. If he's a wolf, and heybrad is actually a villager, then he's probably looking to start the bandwagonning on the obvious choice.

The only votes that mattered were on Day 1. I checked again, and ntndeacon didn't cast a vote back then, either.

Raven, henry296 and ntndeacon are my chief suspects now, and with heybrad on the tail end of that list (only slightly, since kingfc22 wanted the heat to go from himself to heybrad)

I'm voting for the silent guy who "isn't going to be around today" and left a vote for heybrad.

Vote ntndeacon

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 09:17 AM

dola

Crap. I forgot that the sorc also didn't know who the werewolves were.

So basically heybrad is back on the frikkin' suspect's list. Raven, henry296, ntndeacon and heybrad on my list.

My vote stays with ntndeacon.

Joe 07-09-2005 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos
As expected, mrsimperless is taken by the wolves. Surely the bodyguard knew that they were going for mrsimperless, where was he? We could have used one more round of advantage.


Agreed. But it could have been because the bodyguard can't protect the same person two nights in a row. Mrsimperless I though would be going as well, he pretty much got Blackadar lynched day 1.

Joe 07-09-2005 09:31 AM

Heybrad is still on my list, I voted for him yesterday and probably will again, unless anything new comes to light. Although, I am starting to get more suspicious of ntndeacon.

digamma 07-09-2005 09:45 AM

Damn.

JeeberD 07-09-2005 10:21 AM

That sucks, mrsimperless was good at digging up info... :(

I'm going to be at work most of the day but should be back around 5 or 6 central.

henry296 07-09-2005 10:52 AM

I'm going to vote now because I have a busy day and not sure if I'll get back on.

VOTE heybrad

He didn't vote for Blackie on Day 1 and he was the first to vote against Schmidty, perhaps trying to save blackie with the vote for someone who isn't active that they knew was a villager. This is why blackie also voted for Schmidty instead of Buzzbee (who also wasn't active).

digamma 07-09-2005 12:09 PM

I don't think ntndeacon is a wolf, because I don't think a wolf would vote before the night actions were announced...but, I've been wrong a lot so far in this game.

I am going to go with another lay low candidate, who didn't vote for Blacky on Day 1.

Vote Raven

Raven 07-09-2005 12:23 PM

Looks like MrSimperless was on to something, I need to go back and reread everything here.

Neon, I agree the day 1 voting was important because we got lucky and nailed Blacky, but I think basing everything off of day 1 voting is a blind strategy. In fact, it could lead us down the wrong trail, and maybe that's what they want. Everyone who voted blackie isn't necessarily innocent, and everyone who didn't vote Blackie isn't automatically guilty.

I've already shown my reasoning for my day 1 voting, post #142 If I had voted Schmidty on day 1, I believe he would have been the one who had gone home instead of Blackie.

Token Asian Guy 07-09-2005 12:30 PM

so we gained some ground by tabbing the sorcerer, but losing mrsimp will hurt us, his analysis was pretty solid. i was right about king not being a wolf...but he was still a baddie, but him being the sorcerer doesn't neccesarily help us find out his allies. surprisingly, heybrad has stayed unharmed since still being a suspect from early on in the game, and ntn is getting some heat now, although i dont think he cast a vote in the first lynching because he was a substitute. that whole, "not going to be around today" thing could be genuine, but i feel he might just be ducking low to avoid some heat. i voted for heybrad last time, and i am still suspicious. just because he was against king who turned out to be bad doesn't mean much considering the wolves dont know the sorcerer, so it might have been bad vs bad this time around. i'm trying to deliberate this in my head as i type, and i think it seems to make sense that heybrad could be just playing this whole situation to his advantage. so like i did yesterday, i'll do again.

VOTE HEYBRAD

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 12:33 PM

I am the Witness. I saw Token Asian Guy kill mrsimperless.
[b]Unvote Heybrad
Vote Token Asian Guy[b]

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 12:36 PM

Hmmm. TAG raises a good point. And if heybrad turns out to be a villager, then we are definitely, definitely screwed.

Unvote ntndeacon

Vote heybrad

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon
I am the Witness. I saw Token Asian Guy kill mrsimperless.
[b]Unvote Heybrad
Vote Token Asian Guy[b]

Lets try this again.
Unvote HeyBrad
Vote Token Asian Guy

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 12:40 PM

I will be back about 5:00 Cental to talk more

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon
I am the Witness. I saw Token Asian Guy kill mrsimperless.
[b]Unvote Heybrad
Vote Token Asian Guy[b]


Oh great. So now I'm all confused.

Unvote heybrad

Joe 07-09-2005 12:45 PM

wow, that sure puts a different spin on things. do we take him at his word?

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 12:45 PM

Oops. Proper tagging, damnit.

Unvote heybrad

Token Asian Guy 07-09-2005 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon
I am the Witness. I saw Token Asian Guy kill mrsimperless.
[b]Unvote Heybrad
Vote Token Asian Guy[b]


:eek: what the hell? alright, guys you have to believe me, I am not a wolf, but i must have struck a nerve with the wolves to have them accuse me out of the blue like this. i'll admit, it's a smart play by you ntn and heybrad to take heat off of you, two of the top vote getters right now. look at it this way guys: why would ntn wait to reveal what he saw until after he already voted for heybrad, a fellow wolf, making him look to not be in an alliance with him? this is just strategy, well played i must admit, but hopefully the rest of you can believe me and not send another of your fellow villagers to an unneccesary exit.

Raven 07-09-2005 01:30 PM

I'm not sure who to believe, TAG or Ntndeacon or either of them?

If Ntndeacon is indeed the witness, TAG is a wolf, and we are a step closer to winning.

If ntndeacon is a wolf, it means SOMEONE witnessed last night, and they are setting up TAG before the real witness gets a chance to post. Anyone who says they are the witness today won't be believed.

In this scenario, TAG and ntndeacon may both be wolves, one of them being the werewolf king and gets to retaliate when lynched. It also makes the other look good.

They both accused heybrad. I'm still not sure if that makes him an innocent bystander or another piece of their puzzle of confusion....

I'm going to take my chances and vote Token Asian Guy


I'm curious as to what the bandwagoners do here.

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 02:11 PM

Bah. I'm tired. I need sleep. It's 3 AM here.

Vote Token Asian Guy

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 02:28 PM

Okay. Obviously there is something between ntndeacon and TAG. This is what I see:

Day 1 votes matter. Day 2 votes do not. Day 3 votes may matter, since the wolves thought kingfc22 was a villager.

Therefore, whoever didn't vote for Blacky is still a suspect for sure. And, whoever voted for kingfc22 may be a suspect. These people are:

Neon_Chaos, voted for Jeebs, voted for kingfc22
heybrad, voted for Schmidty, voted for kingfc22
Raven, voted for Buzzbee, voted for kingfc22

Thomkal, voted for Buzzbee, no vote on day 3

ntndeacon didn't vote at all on day 1 or day 3. TAG voted for Blacky (werewolf) and heybrad. If TAG were a werewolf, he should've voted for kingfc22 on Day 3, instead of heybrad. This is because he would've thought kingfc22 was a villager.

Because ntndeacon has laid low other than claiming to be a witness, I think he's the one.

Vote ntndeacon

I think the bad guys are ntndeacon and heybrad. There may be one or two out there as well, but those are the top guys. Because ntndeacon has laid the gauntlet down, I say we bump him out.

Oh, mr. bodyguard, please protect me tonight? :)

Joe 07-09-2005 02:29 PM

I'm still not sure whether I should believe ntndeacon or not. He had some suspicion on him, but not enough to make him do something so drastic as saying he was the witness, if it weren't the truth. Especially since he fingered TAG, who was pretty low on most of our radars makes it more believable to me. Lying about that would seem like a last ditch effort, and since he wasn't in that position, I'll have to go with him.

I Vote For Token Asian Guy

Edited to add: I'm now more sure about this after going back and looking at the day 1 voting. TAG switched after the deadline, voting for Blackadar. I'm thinking this was done to try and save himself.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 02:32 PM

GWB, fellow survivors. This is what I believe. We can say all we want at this point in the game. Actions speak louder than words. TAG voted for a werewolf on day 1, and didn't vote for a perceived villager on day 3. This in my mind, says that he's innocent. ntndeacon has done nothing on those two days, and has made an accusation.

I didn't think you could reveal you're the witness?

Joe 07-09-2005 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army
GWB, fellow survivors. This is what I believe. We can say all we want at this point in the game. Actions speak louder than words. TAG voted for a werewolf on day 1, and didn't vote for a perceived villager on day 3. This in my mind, says that he's innocent. ntndeacon has done nothing on those two days, and has made an accusation.

I didn't think you could reveal you're the witness?


I'm not sure if you're suppossed to reveal you're the witness. I agree that the day 1 votes matter, but TAG voted for Buzzbee before switching to Blackadar. I haven't looked at all the posts to see at what point he switched, but if he did it after it didn't matter anymore, it might be something to look at.

Raven 07-09-2005 03:05 PM

I'm off to work, so am done until late tonight.

Good luck, I hope we get the right guy tonight.

Schmidty 07-09-2005 03:25 PM

I think I have to vote for TAG. If he ends up being a villager, we'll know FOR SURE who to vote for tommorrow.

Vote Token Asian Guy

heybrad 07-09-2005 03:58 PM

Ntndeacon was a little to quick to jump to me after yesterdays lynching. I would have thought my vote for Kingfc would have cleared me.

Vote ntndeacon

For those who have voted for me, vote anyway you like, but I strongly suggest you look at evidence on others.

Joe 07-09-2005 04:38 PM

by my count, this is what the votes look like:

ntndeacon- raiders army, heybrad
heybrad- henry, TAG
raven- digamma
TAG- ntndeacon, raven, neon, gwb, schmidty

so just waiting on Jeebs' vote and anyone who may switch.

JeeberD 07-09-2005 05:10 PM

Why would deacon say he was the witness if he's a wolf? He's pretty much signing his own death warrant if TAG turns out to be a villager. There are two or three wolves left right now...wouldn't sacrificing one of their own be kinda stupid right now?

Give me feedback, fellas...

mrsimperless 07-09-2005 05:15 PM

Good luck to the villagers! The truth will be known in the end.

digamma 07-09-2005 05:46 PM

I guess we gotta give this one a shot.

Unvote Raven.

Vote Token Asian Guy.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Token Asian Guy
Well geez, I guess my perception skills need a little honing, the guy who I voted for isn't even playing! Now I am faced with a predicament in terms of voting though, because some good points have been made in favor of lynching Blackadar, but I have the sneaking suspicion that Blackadar is not a wolf. Here is the updated vote for me. (if it's not too late)


UNVOTE BUZZBEE
VOTE BLACKADAR

This is TAG's reason for voting for Buzzbee. Let me check if he was one of the swing votes.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 05:59 PM

Okay...looking at it, TAG's vote was the swing vote....however, he submitted it "late". Jeebs brings up a good point about ntndeacon signing his death warrant. However, looking at the numbers, if we make a mistake tonight, I think the wolves have it locked up, so it wouldn't matter.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 06:00 PM

BHG tells me:

Brain: ntndeacon
Heart: heybrad
Gut: ntndeacon

Brain and Gut win. I'm sticking with ntndeacon.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 06:02 PM

Crap...now looking at heybrad's vote on ntndeacon, that makes me think that he's trying to spread the vote tonight. Let me see what you guys have to say before I go final.

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Token Asian Guy
:eek: what the hell? alright, guys you have to believe me, I am not a wolf, but i must have struck a nerve with the wolves to have them accuse me out of the blue like this. i'll admit, it's a smart play by you ntn and heybrad to take heat off of you, two of the top vote getters right now. look at it this way guys: why would ntn wait to reveal what he saw until after he already voted for heybrad, a fellow wolf, making him look to not be in an alliance with him? this is just strategy, well played i must admit, but hopefully the rest of you can believe me and not send another of your fellow villagers to an unneccesary exit.


well I voted for heybrad before I had gotten the vision. The post with mrsimperless' killing is after my post about heybrad. (I wasn't sure whether or not I was going to be near a computer much today.) However when ihad time to use the computer at lunch, I "saw my vision" (or read the PM from Kwhit.) If Token Asian Guy dies, we will have one less wolf.

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 06:07 PM

and let's see if the 3rd time is a charm on the boldfacing ...
Unvote heybrad
Vote TAG

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 06:10 PM

Going for a walk. I probably won't be back in time to vote again, so I'm going to have to go with TAG, since I think heybrad is trying to spread out the votes. Jeez.

Unvote ntndeacon
Vote TAG

ntndeacon 07-09-2005 06:11 PM

Oh and Raiders Army...
I believe that revealing that you are the Witness is about like revealing that you were the Duke in past games (like Airhog last game) or the seer revealing himself.

digamma 07-09-2005 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army
Okay...looking at it, TAG's vote was the swing vote....however, he submitted it "late". Jeebs brings up a good point about ntndeacon signing his death warrant. However, looking at the numbers, if we make a mistake tonight, I think the wolves have it locked up, so it wouldn't matter.


This is the thing that is tripping me up. The vote for Blacky. However...

If ntn is telling the truth, we kill a wolf.

If he's not, we kill a villager, but we pretty much know ntn is a wolf. We need to get lucky with the bodyguard tonight, and we knock him off tomorrow.

Trouble is if we miss with the bodyguard. Then we may be struggling with numbers.

Airhog 07-09-2005 06:33 PM

ntndeacon does have a point. However, I think this game around, the wolves will kill the witness in retaliation. Everyone saw what someone with loose lips was able to accomplish :D

JeeberD 07-09-2005 07:20 PM

I'm gonna take deacon at his word.

Vote TAG

KWhit 07-09-2005 07:37 PM

Day 4:


heybrad 2 (henry296, Token Asian Guy)
ntndeacon 1 (heybrad)
Token Asian Guy 8 (ntndeacon, neon_chaos, Raven, GWB, Schmidty, digamma, raiders army, JeeberD)

You take the alleged witness at his word and go after Token Asian Guy. He backs away from you, and as you close in, he begins to snarl. Hair starts to sprout all over his body, and his face turns into a snout. You rush him as he completes his transformation. The rope goes around his neck and you lift him into the air dangling from the rope. The hairy beast swings from side to side and finally dies. You have killed a werewolf tonight. You congratulate each other and head off to bed.

KWhit 07-09-2005 07:39 PM

Alive and Kicking:
henry296
Raven
Neon_Chaos
digamma
heybrad
George W Bush
JeeberD
ntndeacon
Schmidty
Raiders Army

Gone but not forgotten:
Blackadar - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
Fouts - Villager, lynched Day 2
Thomkal - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 2
kingfc22 - Sorcerer, lynched, Day 3
mrsimperless - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 3
Token Asian Guy - Werewolf - lynched Day 4

KWhit 07-09-2005 07:39 PM

Send me your night actions please. I will post them late tonight if I get them all. Otherwise, it will be tomorrow morning.

Joe 07-09-2005 07:41 PM

and another one bites the dust. good work again guys.

JeeberD 07-09-2005 07:44 PM

Awesome, way to go deacon! :)

Thomkal 07-09-2005 08:53 PM

Yay humans!

kingfc22 07-09-2005 09:21 PM

:(

SirFozzie 07-09-2005 09:28 PM

2 wolfies and a sorceror. Sheesh. Good work, guys.

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 09:29 PM

OH YEAH! WE GOT A WEREWOLF! Hmmm, TAG might have been the cursed, maybe that's why he was the swing vote on Day 1 and we didn't get a kill that night?

So... there's only two or one more werewolves left? And the King Wolf is still out there. Jeez.

I think that heybrad is pretty much innocent now. TAG has been targetting him since after day 2. henry296, on the other hand, has been piggy-backing TAG the past two votes.

Things are looking bad for henry296 right now, VERY BAD. Because henry296, I think that you're a werewolf.

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 09:43 PM

My list of suspects that I think might be werewolves:

henry296, raiders army, JeeberD, heybrad

henry296 is the obvious choice. And it seems that the obvious choices turn out bad for us. However, I still think that henry296 pretty much damned himself by going with TAG the past two votes. I have Raiders Army there because he was pretty much ready for the ntndeacon vote, until he saw that TAG was lost after diagamma voted for TAG. Same reasoning for Jeeber D, jumping in at the last moment on the TAG vote. heybrad would be the least likely, but he's still suspicious... if a little bit, who knows the werewolves might have been trying to spread the votes enough to have ntndeacon get whacked.

Joe 07-09-2005 09:48 PM

I was just about to post that about Raiders Army. He seemed way too sure about voting for ntndeacon, only to change the vote to TAG after all seemed lost. Its the same thing TAG did on day 1 with the Blackadar vote.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 09:57 PM

To clarify, I was almost positive ntndeacon would be the one lying. I changed my vote because that's what I thought was best since the tipping factor was that I believed heybrad was attempting to spread out the votes.

For the record, I think I've done as much analysis as anyone, and I've left myself publicly open. Also, this is the only vote that I changed...and I wasn't really confident at changing it. I was the second person to vote for Blacky and I didn't change my vote. FWIW, I would also look at myself as a prime suspect as well.

Raiders Army 07-09-2005 09:59 PM

Actually, to take a look at it, I still think heybrad is the prime suspect as possibly the Wolf King. I think he was trying to spread out the vote...why would TAG vote for him and he vote for the seer?

Neon_Chaos 07-09-2005 10:01 PM

Here is Raiders Army's post #217, the very first vote cast after Day 2.

Quote:

Doh. In looking over your posts, I find that there were possibly two things that got you eaten.

1. Your questioning of how people voted.
2. Your big suspicions of Kingfc22.

I would put the top three people who are suspicious in your death as being Kingfc22, JeeberD (whom you questioned), and myself.

The top choice is obviously Kingfc22. I would rank myself as being suspicious as a wolf as well (with my conversation with Fouts yesterday). Finally, you did call out Jeebs.

Since I think the Jeebs vote is somewhat weak, and I'm not going to vote for myself, I have one last choice:

Vote kingfc22

Sorry I didn't do it last night Fouts.


The werewolves didn't know that kingfc22 was the sorc. Perhaps Raiders was trying to use some misdirection and reverse psychology to take the heat off of him and JeeberD? I don't know.

As for henry296, he's been pretty low-key, BUT has sided with TAG the past two votes. I'm thinking TAG and henry296 were working as a team, with Raiders and/or JeeberD on the other side, trying to split votes between two villagers.

Not sure yet.

People count is 10 right now. So, there might only be 4 or less werewolves left, including the king wolf. The killing tonight will give us a clearer view for tommorow's vote. And tommorow's vote is going to be BIG.

I feel that after the accusations I've made, either me or ntndeacon will be gone after the Night phase.

Token Asian Guy 07-09-2005 10:07 PM

Hey guys, it was great playing the game, I had tons of fun. It's nice not having to worry about what I type in this post, since I have to lurk no longer. Mrsimp was delicious though.

JeeberD 07-09-2005 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos
Same reasoning for Jeeber D, jumping in at the last moment on the TAG vote.


Sorry that I had to work all day...

Schmidty 07-09-2005 11:46 PM

Reading everything over again, and thinking about things way too hard, I am VERY suspicious of Raiders Army. This may get me eaten tonight, but he is trying extremely hard to do......something. I just feel that he is trying to throw us off. Then again, heybrad andhenry look very suspicious as well.

Raven 07-10-2005 12:03 AM

Way to go guys! We have to be very close to ending this thing.

SirFozzie 07-10-2005 12:26 AM

you guys MAY finish before we do! (if Brian was the last baddie over there.. we win :D)

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos
The werewolves didn't know that kingfc22 was the sorc. Perhaps Raiders was trying to use some misdirection and reverse psychology to take the heat off of him and JeeberD? I don't know.

For the record, I was confused that the sorc and wolves knew/didn't know who each other were. I corrected myself after that post by stating that I discounted my analysis of the votes (you know, the really long posts I did).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty
Reading everything over again, and thinking about things way too hard, I am VERY suspicious of Raiders Army. This may get me eaten tonight, but he is trying extremely hard to do......something. I just feel that he is trying to throw us off. Then again, heybrad andhenry look very suspicious as well.

Yes, I was trying to swing the vote to ntndeacon, and I was trying very hard to do it. I admit that. The reasoning was that I thought we were making a mistake voting for TAG. As I said above, I would consider myself to be very suspicious as well. I would ask that you consider the whole game so far, not just the past night.

At this point, we're far enough ahead of the wolves to be able to sacrifice someone to come to a logical conclusion. I will throw down the gauntlet to someone that I consider to be a wolf. I just need to figure out who. It may be Neon_Chaos, since he made a comment like this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos
I feel that after the accusations I've made, either me or ntndeacon will be gone after the Night phase.


Regardless of anything, I think ntndeacon will be gone during the night phase. Neon_Chaos hasn't made any huge accusations, and I feel as if I'm the biggest target right now from the wolves...but I don't think they'll take me out during the night phase. They will take ntndeacon out, and let you take me out on the vote tonight.

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 05:49 AM

BTW, when I say sacrifice someone, I mean me. I know I'm a villager, but you don't know that. If I throw the gauntlet down between me and someone else, and you choose to lynch me, you'll know for sure the other person is a werewolf. I feel that it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make at this point.

KWhit 07-10-2005 08:31 AM

Night 4:

The morning breaks warm and sunny. The birds are singing and you wake feeling better about the situation you're in. It was great to get a werewolf yesterday, and who knows? Maybe there wasn't a kill last night.

But when you make your way downstairs, there is one less villager. You realize that digamma is missing. You search his room, and find his body. You also see a number of silver weapons and a shield. You're confused at first, but then realize that digamma was not a normal villager. The werewolves have killed the Bodyguard.

KWhit 07-10-2005 08:33 AM

Alive and Kicking:
henry296
Raven
Neon_Chaos
heybrad
George W Bush
JeeberD
ntndeacon
Schmidty
Raiders Army

Gone but not forgotten:
Blackadar - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
Fouts - Villager, lynched Day 2
Thomkal - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 2
kingfc22 - Sorcerer, lynched, Day 3
mrsimperless - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 3
Token Asian Guy - Werewolf, lynched Day 4
digamma - Bodyguard, killed by Werewolves Night 4

KWhit 07-10-2005 08:39 AM

Schedule change:

I'll be out all afternoon and night, so let's put off the lynching until tomorrow. So the vote deadline is going to be 8pm on Monday night. Then we'll have the night actions take place the same way they have been.

That sound okay?

Joe 07-10-2005 08:40 AM

Well this game just took a turn for the worse. We still have the numbers, but damn.

Neon_Chaos 07-10-2005 09:17 AM

I have made accusations, Raiders, I accused henry296 to be a werewolf, and you to be a very, very big suspect as a werewolf. I was the 2nd person to vote for TAG. If you still think I'm a werewolf, feel free to vote for me.

I will still stick to my suspects list:

henry296, Raiders Army, JeeberD and heybrad. One of them probably isn't a wolf, and it's more likely to be JeeberD or heybrad.

My vote will most likely go to henry296, considering he has been consistent in aligning with TAG the past two votes.

We have about 1 and 1/2 days to go before this vote gets finalized, and this is going to be a BIG vote. We lynch a villager, and we're as good as dead. We lynch a werewolf, and we'll be one step closer to winning this game early.

As for your gauntlet, Raiders... why would you want to get lynched and sacrifice yourself? What if the person who accepts your challenge also turns out to be a villager? We're all screwed, then. Or perhaps, you're the Wolf King, looking to take out another villager so that the Wolves can get a 2-1 kill ratio for the day, and can catch up with the numbers game? I'm not sure.

Unless more evidence comes out, I will go with the likely vote. I say that henry296 is a werewolf.

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos
As for your gauntlet, Raiders... why would you want to get lynched and sacrifice yourself? What if the person who accepts your challenge also turns out to be a villager? We're all screwed, then. Or perhaps, you're the Wolf King, looking to take out another villager so that the Wolves can get a 2-1 kill ratio for the day, and can catch up with the numbers game? I'm not sure.


Very good point. I think I was just trying to save my "rep" in the game vs. trying to find something out. Since you're not targeting me, I can assume you're not a wolf, since I would think they would want to get an easy kill at this point.

digamma 07-10-2005 10:16 AM

Come on, villagers.

JeeberD 07-10-2005 10:19 AM

Crap, it hurts losing digamma. I'm sure he was protecting deacon since he was the obvious choice for the wolves to go after, and they went after a random villager instead and got lucky with di... :(

henry296 07-10-2005 11:44 AM

While I voted with TAG on the last vote, it was only because I didn't see the comments from the witness. I was away from the moutain all afternoon and night. If I had seen the comments for the witness I would have voted for TAG to be lynched.

ntndeacon 07-10-2005 01:10 PM

Just a word in defense of Raiders.
The wolves saw me as I witnessed mrsimperless. They knew I had recognized one of their own as a wolf...(whether they knew I saw TAG is up in the air at the moment. I haven't been a wolf before) I definately think that Raiders vote for me exhonerates (sp) him (at least in my eyes) . I think the wolves would not have accused me, simply because they had to figure I would put the heat on TAG.

Raven 07-10-2005 02:41 PM

My list of suspects: henry and heybrad

Both have been pretty quiet.
Their voting :
day 1
for raiders(henry)
for schmidty(brad)
Day 2
for king(henry, brad)
Day 3
king(brad)
henry didn't vote?
Day 4
for brad(henry)
for ntndeacon(brad)


Not suspects (yet) to me:
neon_chaos, he has been throwing around a lot of names, maybe trying to draw attention to himself. I think he may be the duke, looking to get lynched so he can kill someone else instead.
RaidersArmy, the other guy I suspect of possibly being the duke.
Schmidty, day 1 explains it all. if the wolves were willing to sacrifice blackie vs schmidty, and both were wolves, we are all screwed.
GWB, his day 1 vote for Blackadar in a swing situation was pivotal. Also voted TAG
Jeeber, he has voted for both Blackadar and TAG.
ntndeacon is a villager obviously.

JeeberD 07-10-2005 02:52 PM

After looking at some of the evidence that others have provided...

Vote Henry

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon
Just a word in defense of Raiders.
The wolves saw me as I witnessed mrsimperless. They knew I had recognized one of their own as a wolf...(whether they knew I saw TAG is up in the air at the moment. I haven't been a wolf before) I definately think that Raiders vote for me exhonerates (sp) him (at least in my eyes) . I think the wolves would not have accused me, simply because they had to figure I would put the heat on TAG.

While I appreciate the word of defense, I think that everyone needs to consider me a suspect at this point. The only person they should really trust is you. :)

You are the only person I think is a good guy at this point for sure.

Schmidty is on the bubble for me.

Everyone else I consider a suspect.

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 04:36 PM

I have the feeling that the wolves were really unorganized in the beginning, which led to Blacky getting lynched. The proof would be the fact that TAG's vote was the one that sent him to the gallows! What gambit did they try to do for the first day? Not to mention the fact that the bodyguard successfully defended against their attack that night....or did he? Were the wolves so disorganized that they didn't even send a PM for an attack?

heybrad is still a prime suspect in my mind. henry296 is definitely the other.

Raiders Army 07-10-2005 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon
Just a word in defense of Raiders.
The wolves saw me as I witnessed mrsimperless. They knew I had recognized one of their own as a wolf...(whether they knew I saw TAG is up in the air at the moment. I haven't been a wolf before) I definately think that Raiders vote for me exhonerates (sp) him (at least in my eyes) . I think the wolves would not have accused me, simply because they had to figure I would put the heat on TAG.

Actually, this doesn't help me whatsoever. :)

If I were a wolf, I would've tried to get you to hang last night with the whole "you're lying" thing, and tried to get someone else during the night phase...which is what they did. To attack you during the night phase was predictable, and something the bodyguard was probably keenly aware of. The wolves' best option yesterday was to take you out on the vote...which is something that I tried to do.

I just wanted to bring that to light to show that I'm on the level.

Peregrine 07-10-2005 07:33 PM

RA, you have to realize that proclaiming your innocence is a prime sign of being a werewolf. Of course so is admitting to being a werewolf. The latter has been known to cause death by strangulation in some test subjects.

henry296 07-10-2005 07:59 PM

A question for everyone that thinks I am a wolf:

Why would I be the only vote for Raiders Army on the first night if I knew that Blackadar was wolf? Wouldn't I switch my vote to Schmidty to help protect Blackadar instead of being out on my own?

If your response, is that I was the cursed villager, then why was I the first to point out that the getting the cursed villager was an option instead of a successful saves by the bodyguard? I would have't kept that information a secret for someone else to reveal.

If you have good answers, to the questions, I'd love to here them.

Villager henry

Joe 07-10-2005 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296
A question for everyone that thinks I am a wolf:

Why would I be the only vote for Raiders Army on the first night if I knew that Blackadar was wolf? Wouldn't I switch my vote to Schmidty to help protect Blackadar instead of being out on my own?

If your response, is that I was the cursed villager, then why was I the first to point out that the getting the cursed villager was an option instead of a successful saves by the bodyguard? I would have't kept that information a secret for someone else to reveal.

If you have good answers, to the questions, I'd love to here them.

Villager henry


Its possible that you were trying to spread the votes out, or maybe you thought that by switching would make you look suspicious, and erred on the side of caution. I don't know. The thing that makes you look guilty is that you didn't vote for either Blackadar or TAG, the two known wolves. Of course, the same thing can be said for Heybrad. Which is why you're on my list as well as that of others.

Now, Raiders Army I had been suspicious of, mainly because of what he did yesterday with the switch to TAG at the end. But looking over the course of the full game, I'm less confidant that he is a wolf.

Neon_Chaos 07-10-2005 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George W Bush
Its possible that you were trying to spread the votes out, or maybe you thought that by switching would make you look suspicious, and erred on the side of caution. I don't know. The thing that makes you look guilty is that you didn't vote for either Blackadar or TAG, the two known wolves. Of course, the same thing can be said for Heybrad. Which is why you're on my list as well as that of others.

Now, Raiders Army I had been suspicious of, mainly because of what he did yesterday with the switch to TAG at the end. But looking over the course of the full game, I'm less confidant that he is a wolf.


I agree with regards to Raiders, that vote switch really sent off alarms ringing. But I think that we can overlook that for now. The problem right now, is who do we vote for? henry296 or heybrad?

My evidence for henry296 is out on the table. The evidence for heybrad is also out there. Read back, and evaluate. this vote is probably going to make or break us.

JeeberD has cast the first stone, putting in a vote for henry296. But he's on my list of suspects. Perhaps the wolves are trying to get a completely suspicious, yet unlucky henry296 hanged? Either that, or JeeberD is a complete innocent that's been convinced by the evidence we've put out.

ntndeacon, since you're the only surefire innocent in this band of villagers, I will most likely vote for whoever you're going to vote for.

Raiders Army 07-11-2005 04:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peregrine
RA, you have to realize that proclaiming your innocence is a prime sign of being a werewolf. Of course so is admitting to being a werewolf. The latter has been known to cause death by strangulation in some test subjects.

I neither proclaim my innocence or admit to being a werewolf. I thought I made that clear in my posts. All I know is I can trust ntndeacon for sure. Everyone else is up in the air. Accordingly, everyone else should think the same way.

timmynausea 07-11-2005 05:35 AM

Just an observer so I have no agenda in this: Wouldn't it have been a brilliant move for the wolves to sacrifice one of their own and have the King Wolf claim to be a witness while the other two wolves (maybe Raiders Army and Neon Chaos) really hammer the hard sell on ntndeacon being the only sure villager?

Neon_Chaos 07-11-2005 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timmynausea
Just an observer so I have no agenda in this: Wouldn't it have been a brilliant move for the wolves to sacrifice one of their own and have the King Wolf claim to be a witness while the other two wolves (maybe Raiders Army and Neon Chaos) really hammer the hard sell on ntndeacon being the only sure villager?


Lol. Yeah, it would. Now, come to think of it, ntndeacon might not be a sure-shot witness anymore.

Joe 07-11-2005 06:20 AM

its a good theory, but if ntndeacon wasn't the witness, wouldn't the real witness have come forward by now? Of course, maybe he wouldn't want to blow cover if he hasn't viewed a kill yet.

Raiders Army 07-11-2005 07:17 AM

I'm going to be out most of today, but will vote for tonight's lynching.


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