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-   -   Werewolf XXXVII: Middle-Earth - GAME ENDS. Who Won? Check it out! (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=53934)

Alan T 11-10-2006 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 1302481)
If everything everyone is saying is to be trusted then the following people are bad guys.

2. BrianD
6. ntndeacon
9. Tyrith
17. LoneStarGirl
23. Sublime 2

I have no idea what to do. I know that I am of the light. I don't have a role that grants me any sort of information, so like DC, I am left trusting in what other are telling me. Which has been the case in every freaking game of WW I have played.

Let's see what happens the rest of the day. Sigh.


I noticed you removed Dodgerchick from the list. Any particular reason? I assume everyone will say they are a good guy, but I'm looking for secondary vouching at this point in the game. All of my cards are on the table. I don't highly view Dodgerchick as a suspect, but she has to stay on the list as a possibility until someone trusted can vouch for her.

Alan T 11-10-2006 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon (Post 1302486)
Which means of course that someone who is "trusted " shouldn't be.


Not really, I don't like Spleen's list. he removed himself and Dodgerchick from it. Out of those 7 (plus possibly Thomkal) I'm guessing we likely have 1-3 villagers in there, but the rest are evil.

Pretty good odds for us either way though.

Lorena 11-10-2006 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1302479)
I'm guessing there was 15-17 villagers + bree folk to start the game, with 5-7 saruman + sauron and 1-3 independants.

7 dead villagers, 8 people I trust pretty completely:

Alan T, Jonathan, Swaggs, Grammaticus, Daddy Torgo, Schmidty, Izulde, Mr.Wednesday

I don't know if I trust Thomkal yet or not, but i haven't found out anywhere that i can prove he's lied and Swaggs seems to confirm at least part of his story. Since Swaggs I have independant trust of, I believe him.

That tells me of the 8 people left, I think its a great list to lynch from since at most there is 1-3 villagers on it and the rest are bad.


It's interesting that YOU don't mention Thomkal as part of the 8 you trust completely, but yet you trust Swaggs list which includes Thomkal. Very, very interesting. It's like you're leaving a little wiggle room for yourself. "Well, I have my list of trusted people and I trust Swaggs, so combine my list with his and we're set".

Also, some people on your trust list have been highly suspected so the fact they're on your list makes me suspect even more.

Gosh darnit... my head hurts and I'm sleep deprived. I'm out for a few hours.

Alan T 11-10-2006 09:24 AM

Here is how I view a trust list right now:

Full trust:
1. AlanT
11. Swaggs
13. Jonathan Ezarik
19. Izulde
22. Grammaticus
24. DaddyTorgo - Ventrick
10. Schmidty
18. Mr. Wednesday

Ok feelings but probably 1+ wolves in this group:
21. Thomkal
2. BrianD
7. spleen1015
12. Dodgerchick

Neutral:
6. ntndeacon
23. Sublime 2

Distrust:
9. Tyrith
17. LoneStarGirl

Alan T 11-10-2006 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick (Post 1302493)
It's interesting that YOU don't mention Thomkal as part of the 8 you trust completely, but yet you trust Swaggs list which includes Thomkal. Very, very interesting. It's like you're leaving a little wiggle room for yourself. "Well, I have my list of trusted people and I trust Swaggs, so combine my list with his and we're set".

Also, some people on your trust list have been highly suspected so the fact they're on your list makes me suspect even more.

Gosh darnit... my head hurts and I'm sleep deprived. I'm out for a few hours.


Why is that interesting? i already said I got PM information about Swaggs, I was told his role as the innkeeper. I havent gotten any information on Thomkal other than what he said. I don't view Thomkal in the vouched for list, but like you I feel right now that he seems good.

I dont understand why that seems like wiggle room.. All I am vouching for is the people I have full trust in or those people fully vouch for.

spleen1015 11-10-2006 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1302489)
Not really, I don't like Spleen's list. he removed himself and Dodgerchick from it. Out of those 7 (plus possibly Thomkal) I'm guessing we likely have 1-3 villagers in there, but the rest are evil.

Pretty good odds for us either way though.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1302487)
I noticed you removed Dodgerchick from the list. Any particular reason? I assume everyone will say they are a good guy, but I'm looking for secondary vouching at this point in the game. All of my cards are on the table. I don't highly view Dodgerchick as a suspect, but she has to stay on the list as a possibility until someone trusted can vouch for her.


Go back and read my post. I said if what everyone says is true than those are the people who would be bad guys. DC has said she is of the light, so she gets included in my statement.

Alan, I have seen you constantly twist the words of many people in this game time and again. I'm not saying that any of those people are right, but you've been putting a lot of spin on a lot of what everyone else is saying.

Blade turned out to be a good guy and he made a good run at getting Thomkal lynched yesterday. So, right now, lynching Thomkal today is the logical thing to do regardless of his reveal. If I was able to switch my vote last night, Thomkal would have been lynched and we would be in a different place today.

Hell, for all I know Thomkal, Swaggs and Alan are dark driving what's going on. If that is the case, there is a lot of power right there I don't like the situation the good guys are in at all. I don't trust any that has revealed. It just doesn't sit right with me.

Alan T 11-10-2006 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 1302507)
Go back and read my post. I said if what everyone says is true than those are the people who would be bad guys. DC has said she is of the light, so she gets included in my statement.

Alan, I have seen you constantly twist the words of many people in this game time and again. I'm not saying that any of those people are right, but you've been putting a lot of spin on a lot of what everyone else is saying.

Blade turned out to be a good guy and he made a good run at getting Thomkal lynched yesterday. So, right now, lynching Thomkal today is the logical thing to do regardless of his reveal. If I was able to switch my vote last night, Thomkal would have been lynched and we would be in a different place today.

Hell, for all I know Thomkal, Swaggs and Alan are dark driving what's going on. If that is the case, there is a lot of power right there I don't like the situation the good guys are in at all. I don't trust any that has revealed. It just doesn't sit right with me.


Its fine with me, you don't need to trust me. Right now the villagers that are trusted out number the bad guys. I think we have enough good guys left who have been vouched for to force the issue. Voting records from here on out will be pretty important to determine which of those left are the bad guys.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:15 AM

lol sign #1 that the bad guys are on the run:

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 9 (4 members & 5 guests)

Thomkal 11-10-2006 10:17 AM

I'd like to apologize in advance for my absence today. I have woken up with a bad migraine, and will not be able to concentrate on this game until I feel better. Please do not spin this as me trying to hide (not that I have anything to hide). I would never use a RL excuse to cover my absence from posting.

There's still a long time till lynch and at some point I will feel good enough to post some more. Again I'm sorry-I know you need me to be active today and it sucks that I cannot.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 1302528)
I'd like to apologize in advance for my absence today. I have woken up with a bad migraine, and will not be able to concentrate on this game until I feel better. Please do not spin this as me trying to hide (not that I have anything to hide). I would never use a RL excuse to cover my absence from posting.

There's still a long time till lynch and at some point I will feel good enough to post some more. Again I'm sorry-I know you need me to be active today and it sucks that I cannot.


uhh.. you should at least reveal who you scanned last night and what you found. At least do that before you disappear. Sorry you don't feel good though, but its the least you could do.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:22 AM

see what you can pull from your butt now thomkal

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:28 AM

Thomkal.... who did you scan? How do you scan them? what information do you get?

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:30 AM

Lonestargirl, since its just you and me and 4 guests in the thread right now, I would like to know what your trust and distrust list looks like.

I've laid out my list, so curious to yours. Who do you trust, who do you distrust and who is neutral or unknown to you?

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:35 AM

Well Alant, here is how it is. Since Thomkal is going to pussy out on us today (sorry Anxiety, it slipped) I will let you know how i stand.

I am the real seer. I didn't want to reveal this last night because it would have been my word against Thomkals with 20 minutes to lynch and i didn't want to die last night. I have been questioning Thomkal so much because what he said doesn't make since to me. I do see more about the person besides if they are dark and light.

Day one- scanned blade
day two - scanned alant
day three - scanned lathum
day four - scanned izulde

Alant, i can reveal a lot about you and izulde, but i wont because i dont want to say too much. Push me and I will.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:37 AM

I scanned blade because i have found out in early games blade is a hell of a player, i wanted to know immediatly if he was bad. the second night i was tired of alant and blades bickering if they were on the same team, so i checked alant. After that lathum almost died, and he wasn't playing his normal game, so i checked on him. Last night I went after Izulde because i didn't want to check on thomkal, i figured he would be dead once i revealed today, and izulde has been against me since day one.

Mr. Wednesday 11-10-2006 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick (Post 1302314)
So let's see, Thomkal names Jonathan (who I think is doing an excellent job on his analysis for being a first timer), Schmidty, and Mr. W as villagers. I'm not entirely sure I buy it. I mean is it possible that they're all part of the same team and he named them because he wanted to "clear them" in a way?

If it was a faked reveal, I doubt more than one of the three of us is known by Thomkal to be bad. Considering how close the reveal came to not working, if he tried to "clear" three team members, it would have had precisely the opposite effect.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302545)
Well Alant, here is how it is. Since Thomkal is going to pussy out on us today (sorry Anxiety, it slipped) I will let you know how i stand.

I am the real seer. I didn't want to reveal this last night because it would have been my word against Thomkals with 20 minutes to lynch and i didn't want to die last night. I have been questioning Thomkal so much because what he said doesn't make since to me. I do see more about the person besides if they are dark and light.

Day one- scanned blade
day two - scanned alant
day three - scanned lathum
day four - scanned izulde

Alant, i can reveal a lot about you and izulde, but i wont because i dont want to say too much. Push me and I will.


Tell me this, in your scans you learn role information about how I get my information from Izulde I assume, so you can back me that I am good and my information I am giving is in good will?

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:39 AM

All four people i have scanned are of the light. I hate that because i wanted at least one person to name when i revealed. I was almost certain izulde was bad last night.... but i was wrong.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:41 AM

I will back you and izulde all day... but right now we have to go after thomkal. I cannot believe people bought his bs story last night. The reason he named those three people is because he knew they were good. He also knew they were three of the less vocal players so they would be more likely to switch votes without analyzing it too much. But Gramm has to be bad too, he immediatly switched off of thomkal, no questions asked.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:41 AM

Dola,

Also in your role you would then say you have no reason to doubt my vouch list as it stands based on what you know of me? (once again note that Thomkal is not on the vouched for list)

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:44 AM

The only problem i have is that i scanned you on day 2. you might have been converted. But if you were converted i doubt you would have izulde on your trust list.... but i need to know that you REALLY trust Gramm, because i dont.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302555)
I will back you and izulde all day... but right now we have to go after thomkal. I cannot believe people bought his bs story last night. The reason he named those three people is because he knew they were good. He also knew they were three of the less vocal players so they would be more likely to switch votes without analyzing it too much. But Gramm has to be bad too, he immediatly switched off of thomkal, no questions asked.


I will vouch completely for Gramm. If you believe me to be of the light, I will vouch for him too.

I think we as a group need to be cautious with how we proceed today. What Lonestargirl is saying here confirms to me that she does know information about me. But today is going to be a huge day for us to win or lose.

I think today it would be a huge mistake for us to lynch Lonestargirl -OR- Thomkal for now. Both can continue to provide us information that we can choose to believe as we will. We still have a list of several others that are not vouched for and its not a risk of killing our seer off.

Lets let the bad guys do the seer killing for us. THey cant let the real seer sit out there for multiple days creating a CoT, it will devastate them. So this is the time in the game, we play some poker with the bad guys. Lets call their bluff.

If they want the seer dead, they'll have to do it. If its you Lonestargirl then I'm sorry you have to die to them, but thank you for your timely reveal. Today is the day for it. But I would rather they kill you than we lynch you. Same thing for Thomkal.

Today I think we need to focus on the people not vouched for and leave both LSG and Thomkal alone. Lets not do the bad guy's work for them

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302558)
The only problem i have is that i scanned you on day 2. you might have been converted. But if you were converted i doubt you would have izulde on your trust list.... but i need to know that you REALLY trust Gramm, because i dont.


I really trust Gramm.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:47 AM

then we need to go after spleen and sublime today
get a runoff between the two and see what they reveal

BrianD 11-10-2006 10:48 AM

So we now have three seers visible in the game? Thomkal claims to be able to see light/dark, Alan claims that Izulde can see light/dark, and LSG claims to be able to see light/dark and more. That seems like a lot of seers.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:49 AM

Thomkal straight out lied, i know izulde's role, and its not as obvoius as what i see as a seer.

Mr. Wednesday 11-10-2006 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs (Post 1301632)
Daddy, are you of the side of light?


I was wondering about this question, the reveal would offer an explanation for why he asked.

Swaggs, if you want to check me at any point, I've said (more than once) that I'm the side of light and the villagers.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:52 AM

I think a couple of issues need to be worked out...

Swaggs, we need to know how foolproof your ability is to making sure that Schmidty and Mr.W are clean. I trust you, so if you say that your scan reveals to you that they are clean and vouched for then so be it. Its a good possibility if Thomkal is bad, that he did put three good guys on the list. I just want to make sure that is the case here. Of course Thomkal might also be good. Only time will tell, i just don't want Schmidty and Mr.W slipping in fully backed unless there is good reason to. I'll trust you Swaggs so just want to revisit this.

So if we lay off Schmidty and Mr.W because of Swaggs, lay off of LSG and Thomkal because the risk of lynching the wrong seer is too great and not worth the reward, and people believe my vouched list.. that leaves these people to look at for today:

2. BrianD
6. ntndeacon
7. spleen1015
9. Tyrith
12. Dodgerchick
23. Sublime 2

Mr. Wednesday 11-10-2006 10:53 AM

Er, I should say, my words have been that I am on the side of light and the townspeople.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD (Post 1302565)
So we now have three seers visible in the game? Thomkal claims to be able to see light/dark, Alan claims that Izulde can see light/dark, and LSG claims to be able to see light/dark and more. That seems like a lot of seers.


I didn't claim Izulde can see light/dark. Its actually role information, maybe he gets more, but I don't get any light/dark info. All I have been working on is based off of the roles

Mr. Wednesday 11-10-2006 10:54 AM

Alan, if you believe his ability, then what we know is that Thomkal believes that all three people he named are good. If, arguendo, he's in one of the bad factions and that faction doesn't know members of the other faction, then we actually aren't completely cleared.

Mr. Wednesday 11-10-2006 10:54 AM

#1781 was re: Swaggs.

spleen1015 11-10-2006 10:56 AM

Go ahead and lynch me if you want me dead. That's the only way I am going to die.

But, I am of the light. That is for certain. I am believing LSG and I think we need to lynch Thomkal today.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1302578)
Alan, if you believe his ability, then what we know is that Thomkal believes that all three people he named are good. If, arguendo, he's in one of the bad factions and that faction doesn't know members of the other faction, then we actually aren't completely cleared.


That is my concern as well. I'm keeping you and Schmidty on a different tier for now of not completely trusted, but people to not consider for a lynch.

Before all of the reveals I was leaning to thinking you were bad and Schmidty was good. But for now all of that will wait. Everything will sort itself out over time.

BrianD 11-10-2006 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1302577)
I didn't claim Izulde can see light/dark. Its actually role information, maybe he gets more, but I don't get any light/dark info. All I have been working on is based off of the roles


I'm sorry, you did say that.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 10:58 AM

spleen the reason i picked you to put pressure on is because i haven't scanned you and it seems nobody has vouched for you yet.

Alan T 11-10-2006 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 1302580)
Go ahead and lynch me if you want me dead. That's the only way I am going to die.

But, I am of the light. That is for certain. I am believing LSG and I think we need to lynch Thomkal today.


I am of the belief that we should NOT lynch LSG or Thomkal today. Let the bad guys do the work for us there. The risk/reward of guessing the wrong seer is too great. The worst case scenerio, LSG is the seer and Thomkal is bad, we just let Thomkal keep talking and its just 1 more bad guy in the game. Likewise the same thing is true if LSG is bad and thomkal is the seer.

Right now I'm probably leaning towards believing LSG, but that point is irrelevant. We have a list of 6 people totally un vouched for. That group likely can't have more than 2 villagers in it. Unless we are extremely unlucky we should at least get one bad guy by focusing on that list more.

BrianD 11-10-2006 11:02 AM

With the desire to make sure our assumptions are good....Alan, did LSG reveal anything that you didn't reveal earlier, or anything that couldn't be easily extrapolated from your reveal?

spleen1015 11-10-2006 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302583)
spleen the reason i picked you to put pressure on is because i haven't scanned you and it seems nobody has vouched for you yet.


That's cool with me. You guys have no reason to believe that I am good. I get it. I just want you guys to know that I'm of the light.

My name is Nob and I am a stableworker, a hobbit servant of Barliman Butterbur at the Inn of the Prancing Pony. I am a paranoid little fellow, so I hide from everyone at night even if I trust them. I can choose to not hide if I want to, but I don't see any reason to do so at this point. If I say that I'm not hiding on a given night, then that just opens me up for the baddies. So, it's not worth it to me.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 11:02 AM

Well the thing is, I KNOW Thomkal is bad.... we dont KNOW about anybody else. Why risk killing off another villager? I can say whatever you want to say about my night pms from anxiety, but thomkal can't because he doesnt get them. I am all for killing off thomkal today.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 11:03 AM

Briand, i can reveal something he doesn't want me to reveal to vouch for myself. but i wont

Alan T 11-10-2006 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD (Post 1302585)
With the desire to make sure our assumptions are good....Alan, did LSG reveal anything that you didn't reveal earlier, or anything that couldn't be easily extrapolated from your reveal?


I'm pretty sure Blade caught on to hints LSG dropped to him earlier in the game. He even mentioned it as such a few days ago. I'm not sure that there is much I haven't revealed, but all I can say is that I find LSG's story more plausible than Thomkal's right now. Whether or not I completely trust either of them will only be seen later, but LSG's story is good enough for me to want to push us in the direction I am and not lynch either of them.

spleen1015 11-10-2006 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1302592)
I'm pretty sure Blade caught on to hints LSG dropped to him earlier in the game. He even mentioned it as such a few days ago. I'm not sure that there is much I haven't revealed, but all I can say is that I find LSG's story more plausible than Thomkal's right now. Whether or not I completely trust either of them will only be seen later, but LSG's story is good enough for me to want to push us in the direction I am and not lynch either of them.


I totally forgot about this. You are right, Alan. Blade did pick up on this and let the cat out of the bag with his use of 'her' when talking about it. I'm surprised she's still around.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 11:05 AM

blade, you knew i was the seer early on huh?

Blade6119 11-10-2006 11:06 AM

Good game everyone, best of luck going forward.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 11:07 AM

blade is grouchy

Alan T 11-10-2006 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302589)
Well the thing is, I KNOW Thomkal is bad.... we dont KNOW about anybody else. Why risk killing off another villager? I can say whatever you want to say about my night pms from anxiety, but thomkal can't because he doesnt get them. I am all for killing off thomkal today.


Think this through though...

If you are telling the truth and Thomkal is lying.. keeping him in the game forces the bad guys hands. They have to then make the decision of killing the real seer and letting us on to it, or keeping the real seer alive to keep this smoke screen going.

So the real seer either gets an additional day of life from it, or at least we forced the bad guys to reveal their hand letting us know which one is real.

As a villager without info on either of you, I find your story to be more believable for now, but neither of you can be in my vouch list. At this point I am not ready to take the risk of killing the wrong seer, so would instead focus on one of the unvouched.

So far -EVERYONE- in both your list and Thomkal's list can be vouched for by a second person, so keeping both of you alive doesn't create false trust for anyone else. It buys us a day with the seer and forces the bad guys by calling their bluff.

Blade6119 11-10-2006 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl (Post 1302599)
blade is grouchy


Blade is dead, Blade is of course grouchy.

But its a holiday so i have no classes. So today will be a good day!

Alan T 11-10-2006 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 1302596)
I totally forgot about this. You are right, Alan. Blade did pick up on this and let the cat out of the bag with his use of 'her' when talking about it. I'm surprised she's still around.


I never really assumed Blade was bad by the way. As you know I never once voted for him, and last night when Tyrith was trying to set Blade up for the fall I wasn't going to buy it.

Having Blade throw alot of heat on me I think helps keep me in the game longer. I don't know if he honestly thought I was bad or not though, but I didn't mind the heat.

LoneStarGirl 11-10-2006 11:09 AM

what holiday is today? and blade, answer me: you knew i was the seer huh?


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