French fry producers are struggling because orders of French fries to fast food restaurants are down. For many other plants they are reorganizing their productions lines to change how it is packaged, as someone mentioned rather than large bags for restaurant, family sized bags instead, etc.

I think that this is impossible to know. We are in uncharted territory here.

Everyone wants things back to normal as soon as possible. But we just don't know enough at this point to determine if it is possible.

I do think we'll start to see some loosening of the restrictions in the next 30-60 days. It may be geographically based as some have suggested.

But from a personal point of view, I still don't know how that would look. I won't be on the first wave of passengers in a plane. No way am I staying in a hotel. I can't imagine going to the movie theater or playhouse anytime soon. I could see going out to a restaurant if the tables are spread further apart.

It will be interesting how each of us determines our "comfort level". I suspect some will resume normal activities as soon as possible. While others may wait until a vaccine is widely available. But the range of that timeframe could be 1-12 months...

Yeah we have a family trip to California with Disney etc planned for early July with all cancelleble airbnb, hotels, airfare, etc. I'm completely fine cancelling or rescheduling but then I look at even the most conservative graphs and it all of them basically say by June the entire country will be at like <10 deaths a day. I realize it's all based on completing the graph the other way I just don't get how it's possible.

I'm going to say the stay-at-home orders will be gone by summer but we won't be back to 90-100% normal yet, social distancing will still be around, everyone will be conscious of crowds, business will still have greatly reduce travel etc. Basically airlines, cruise ships, hospitality, theme parks are still going to be screwed.

IMO it comes down to what you'll be doing but I'd keep away from crowds. We're actually looking at renting a cabin in the Blue Ridge mountains and doing some fly fishing vs Disney.

I'm wondering more on how my daughter's college freshman year is going to be like.

I would and have. Maybe late summer stuff will happen, We've tentatively* hired a nanny, as we're thinking that summer camps will probably be closed through mid-summer at least. The international youth ministry that I used to work for has already cancelled all camps prior to June 15th. (Typically they start around Memorial Day Weekend.)

Let's face it: the best-case scenario for mid-July is that the spread has slowed down and some medication(s) are shown to lessen the symptoms. There will be no vaccine by then, it will still be incredibly dangerous for the at-risk group (which is, what, like a good 25% of the population???,) and if we're *very* lucky, we'll have enough widespread testing to know who has built up immunity to it. Those who haven't still would feel vulnerable.

The other issue with "back-to-work" without a vaccine or comprehensive testing that no government--be it local, state, or federal--can control is human behavior. My co-worker's mid-40s healthy wife died from this. As more stories like that come out, we're going to see more concern from non-at-risk people about not just "doing my part to help society" but about their own personal health and safety. If restaurants open on May 1st or June 1st or whenever, you can't MAKE people go, and there's going to be a significant percentage of the population that simply...won't. Same with other mass attractions. Can hospitality/entertainment/summer fun venues function if they're only getting, say, 40% of normal revenue?

*--"Tentatively" in the sense that she is planning to work at one of the camps our kids will attend if open. If not open, she'll be looking for income and we'll be looking for help.

Heh. Long response cross-posted with several of y'all who made my point of "government can't make people go."

What if the stay at home stuff is too effective? I mean let's say 10-20% have gotten the virus but close to 80% have not? When can the stay at home order ever end? Isn't the conclusion that the flattening the curve is really to save the strain on hospitals and eventually everyone will be exposed to this virus? (unless you do stay at home until the vaccine comes out)

This isn't some economy argument and certainly isn't an argument that Trump is doing something right. Just not sure I'm understanding the end game or if there is an end game here.

That's basically where I am.

Back to summer plans, I expect major fights with summer camps that want to open in June.

I think it depends on the plans. If it involves Disney or a tour of different baseball stadiums could be dicey, if it is renting a beach house somewhere you can drive to I think you are probably good.

We have 2 trips coming up with decisions to make.

Trip 1 is 2 weeks in Nantucket. We go every year with my parents. We have already paid 50%, the other half due June 2nd. Trip is first two weeks of August. If we cancel and they rent the house to someone else we get our money back. If we cancel and they don't rent it out we lose half the money. I would imagine if there is still a shelter in place we get our money back.

The second trip is a Disney Cruise in November. Balance also due in June (probably could have planned that better). That one we would of course get a full refund if it doesn't go. My bigger concern is what if the virus makes a comeback and we are on a cruise ship. Less than ideal.

I feel your pain, sucks to have to think about this stuff already.

I've thought about this point as well. For people who want to open everything up ASAP, it would seem that the ideal is that as many people get the virus as the health system can deal with, but not one more.

I think this is a very interesting point. While I appreciate the newer CDC guidelines for making Essential Workers available to return to work with certain caveats (no fever, no current symptoms, etc.). I am VERY wary of how this translates to the rest of the workforce if they follow the same formula. People need a paycheck, and while I don't blame them, I certainly don't necessarily trust that they will truly self-administer and follow these guidelines. So unless each business is equipped to have someone actively check each employee, it will be difficult to determine that balance of risk/reward.

This is where I'm at. I hated going to work when we were with "limited" (but far more than reported) cases. Damned if I'm taking extra chances until we have better controls than "hey, we stopped testing and we think most people don't have it". I'll go to work and hate doing it. I'll continue to get pickup groceries and maybe resume some curbside takeout. I'll go outside but continue to avoid people and maybe go for drives to get out of the house like I am now. And... that's about it. I'm not going to church - I'll keep watching from home. It's unlikely we're going to visit my parents because we don't want to put them at risk. I'm sure as hell not going to a baseball game, amusement park, movie, or vacation and those were all things on the list for this summer as they're all things I love to do. I know other people have higher risk tolerances than I do and some people have already had COVID and survived. But I suspect a lot of people are in the same boat I am. I don't see how the economy magically fixes no matter when the President wants to "reopen" it.

SI

Early on I recall a lot of the experts warning against thinking this is a short term solution, and saying the flattening would be a long process. They have since been silenced by Trump and Pence, I read recently Pence is now forbidding any scientists on his team from doing CNN interviews. I think a lot of the reopening stuff is driven by Trump and co. to get the economy going.

I suspect what happens is we start opening around Memorial Day. The summer months knocks this down and we are lulled in to a false sense of security. Trump claims victory and fires Fauci who then goes on to warn people we are being to complacent. Then this thing roars back in the fall.

I wonder how much refund policies and "have they already paid full price" will play into these decisions. We've paid $0 (day camp), $100 deposit (overnight camp) and full price (overnight camp) for three June camps. I could see some camps playing hardball if restrictions are lifted but large numbers don't want their kids to go.

I thought Sweden was trying that and it's gotten them an 8% death rate for their efforts.

I think the whole hammer and dance theory (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56) is the best I've seen. At least until there are some medicines that can work against this.

Honestly, I'm not sure how we don't just completely screw ourselves over 1918 style. If these effects are mitigated throughout the summer, there's no stopping re-opening schools in the fall and our deadliest months are going to be October and November.

SI

Speaking of Disney, I saw this article last night:

I'm not sure if he is truly suggesting zero attendance for the rest of 2020, or just such a low number that it will still have a huge negative impact...

For once my procrastination pays off and I hadn't bought out Six Flags passes yet.

I'm out on baseball as well.

I do wonder if we are going to see a change in how movie studios release films. The new Trolls movie is being released today on several streaming platforms. $20 to rent. Cuts out the middle man and the studios still get their money. I can easily make popcorn and get candy to watch from home.

I have to think them shuffling their movies around would also hurt revenue or else this guy isn't that good of a financial analyst

SI

It may be, and to be clear, it's not a position that I'm advocating trying to achieve, as it's far too risky. Just saying that if quick re-openings are your goal, that has to be the number you're shooting for.

To those who have talked about it coming back in the fall: is there now evidence that warm weather will help squelch it in the summer, or is that a position mainly based on schools and higher ed reopening and thus speeding up the spread?

Combination of both.

I can see a scenerio where we get lulled in to a false sense of security and end up back at square one, or worse because of it.

We have prepaid all of the day camps and about 2/3rds of the one overnight camp. I suspect they all will play hardball. All of them would have been filled by end of January if we hadn't signed up when we did.

I doubt we see less than 10 deaths per day anytime soon and not until a vaccine. We are also expecting to cancel summer plans.

His reference to "fiscal year" almost certainly means through June 30, 2020. Just in case that term isn't registering... not the calendar year through Dec 31, 2020. He seems to be saying zero attendees in the next several weeks, and who knows after that but plug in a depressed number.

From what I learned about Disney people when we were planning our trip last year, if the park reopens, a lot of people will see it as an opportunity to so when the crowds are lower. It will not be a ghost town.

But I also take the point that "a lot of people" is still less than the "there are so many people here that we are physically having trouble moving" level crowds that Disney expects.

And Sweden is perhaps the most ideal candidate if you wanted to do it, due to both mentality and as a hard fact the low population density. Even Stockholm (densest population) would by a quick search not even crack the Top50 in the US.
Sweden (same as the other nordic countries) also has among the best air quality, which obviously plays a role as far as the likelihood of death and severe cases in a given region (more people with worse lungs or other existing conditions to do with air quality).
So in reality the question is not "why not be Sweden?" because it'd be "be like Sweden, only with worse preconditions)


If you compare Norway (much more stringent measures but otherwise comparable chatacteristics as a country and time of outbreak) and Sweden, Sweden has about 4 times more dead per capita.

And even they are changing course now after intense pressure from both scientists and the already overwhelmed medical community.

Not just medicine. New testing methods, increased capacity and training for people involved (even stuff like finding and conracting people) or more protective gear. If you keep importing it and producing it but the number of sick gets lower you can after a few weeks maybe finally outfit everybody that needs it and that will mitigate effects when it picks up again.

Right now even workers in Hospitals have to cut Corners, not to mention Care Facilities ...

Good catch! I just looked it up. Disney Fiscal Year runs from Oct2019 - Sep2020

That is the great unknown, unless everyone is tested. My guess is lockdown can only end when there is the capacity to test everyone of a certain age, or in a certain area or industry, or however each country decides to do it.

I've heard it described as turning on different societal and economic faucets and seeing what happens, and then turning on and off faucets as needed.

Governments are going to be cautious but I think we'll also see certain faucets turned on very soon. Our society and economy can't just wait for a vaccine (which there's no guarantee of even happening). But if we can be better prepared for future and hopefully much more moderate upticks in cases - through better treatment, more experience, more equipment, better hospital capacity, better societal habits, then it can be manageable. One of the reasons the Spanish Flu eventually disappeared, quite suddenly, is that doctors just got really good at treating it. We'll move in that direction with this too.

The big mystery to me is big crowds - sporting events, theme parks, concerts. Everybody is going to be reluctant to turn on those faucets. I could see those things shut down until and if there's a vaccine. I think we're entering an era of empty-area sports for those entertainment entities big enough to make money from TV. The rest, are probably just gone longer-term.

More the latter than the former: kids are crazy disease vectors (which, of course, every parent already knows).

SI

I find myself crossing the street when I am walking the dog and people are walking on the sidewalk toward me.

I feel so far away from being comfortable at something like a tailgate or a football game.

And I imagine I am not the only one.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Going out of "shelter in place" in Sept/Oct before a vaccine would be the worst thing you can do. Schools back in session, colder weather, allergies back in effect and other colder weather illnesses (ie, the normal flu) that could weaken our immune system.

If we aren't going to stay in until a vaccine (which I don't think we can), I think we have to look at loosening the restrictions in July. I'm not saying 40K people at a sporting event or big concerts - but maybe open back up restaurants for under 25 people, salons, stores, etc. The summer has the advantage of no school (slows the spread of illness), fewer allergy issues, hotter weather to potentially slow down the virus propagation and it is easier for the "at-risk" population to stay at home. If we could end the summer with good practices in place to reduce the spread (more companies instituting better health guards because they have money and customers), I think we would be in a better spot for the fall. Worst case, we would have a higher group immunity due to some of the lower risk groups getting and recovering from it.

This makes sense to me. Devil is in the details, etc. But as a framework, it's pretty good.

I am with you. It has me very worried.

It seems like a long term plan. You open up and then close when it begins to overwhelm the health systems. Cycle continues. At some point through herd immunity, each time you open up, the impact on hospitals lessens.

I still foresee elderly and immunocompromised people having to stay home or be extremely careful. And I imagine some social distancing will remain in place till there is a vaccine. Like I don't foresee grocery stores taking down their sneeze guards and rules for a long time. I imagine shaking hands will be a thing of the past for awhile. People will avoid large gatherings in confined spaces. I know personally it will probably be a long time before I sit down at a busy restaurant.

Most experts have felt this is a 12-18 month battle. Hopefully the worst is behind us, but there will likely be hotspots pop up and lots of death.

One other thing I should add is time is helping scientists and doctors learn how to fight the disease better. Just read how they are finding that putting patients on ventilators too early is actually bad for their recovery. Little things like that which will save X% of lives adds up. Plus hopefully there are some anti-virals which can either shorten hospital stays or save a few lives in the process will help.

Germany tested a random sample of 1,000 residents and found that 2% of the population was currently infected, and that 14% were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected. Then eliminating overlap, it was concluded that 15% of the sample had been infected.

If that number is accurate and could be calculated out to the country than Germany's death rate from the virus would be around 0.22%. (Not accounting for people who died under the radar, which hopefully isn't too significant a number in Germany.)

That seems like pretty good news. 15% already, and it's the 15% who had a lifestyle most likely to come across it early. You'd have to think the % is much higher in places that didn't do as well containing it, like New York.

(Edit: Of course, as Arles alluded to, whatever that % is, it's now going to grow only very slowly from here on out as long as restrictive movement politics are in place)

The thing I am thinking about is how we deal with these people. My mother in law lives in the area. Do we just never visit her until there is a vaccine?

I'm a healthy guy in his young 40s with a job. I would presumably be one of the people out and about if we do loosen restrictions. But if I am out and about, even in a limited way, I don't see how I could ensure that I am not an asymptomatic carrier who got exposed 6 days ago at the gas station.

I don't know. You'd probably have to stay away or be extremely careful when visiting (mask, distance). Without any sort of real testing in this country, we have to assume everyone is a carrier.

I just did some shopping for my Dad. Wore a mask, dropped off the stuff at his place, said hi from a distance, and left. I feel terrible about the whole thing but he's in his 70's now. Would never forgive myself if I gave it to him and it killed him.

We did the same for my MIL last weekend, she came out to the car and begged us to come inside because she was so lonely and didn't understand why we wouldn't do so. It was pretty awful, but the same scenario - even though the chances of us having it and being asymptomatic are miniscule (don't go anywhere except walk the dogs late at night) neither of us would ever forgive ourselves if the worst happens. Late 70's, diabetic, just had major back surgery and has a thyroid issue she's dealing with right now, it wouldn't go well for her if she got it.

Actually it can't i think. I know the area and that is like saying a study on likelihood of traffic accidents on an empty but heavily policed road in Iowa can be scaled up to say sth definitive about the whole country.

This was the only hotspot for a while and got heavy ressources, meaning everybody got the best treatment and very early. They also had no major outbreaks in retirement homes so far. This Death Rate is an absolute Best Case Number.

And as an aside, the study released only a preliminary result from only a bit over 500 people so the rate they published is 0,38, not 0.22.

And when i say published: They did a press conference, gave no description of the demographics or methodology* and no peer review process at all.
They even pulled their 2 Page summary from the Website after a few hours and some glaring mistakes/holes werenpointed out.
And they hired a PR firm normally doing faux-political yellow journalism.

* For example no allowance for false positives. A week ago the antibody test they used still could not tell if it was Covid19 or another way more more harmless Coronavirus that causes a mild flu (15% of germans get one of those between November and March)
They also dont say how the "households" look. If there are many Parents + 2 kids households (it is that kind of place) that will skew the results of the %infected since it is likely 3 or all 4 get it.

And even if you don't visit her, Somebody three transmissions removed from you might infect his Mother. Or you infect a mate who infects his daughter who infects a friend who infects her mom who is a nurse in a home and has only a shitty selfmade mask because there still aren't enough good ones.

I mean, the idea of protecting the vulnerable is good but we can't properly (with the current tools and ressources) when a small portion of the generall population has it, how would it work better with the same Tools if more have it ?

There is no alternative to keeping infection levels and risks low everywhere. There are Tools to do that while opening up but those are not available yet or not enough like proper masks.

I may have missed it earlier but have they officially determined that herd immunity is possible with this virus? I've read that it is, but I've also read that a good percentage of people who were infected didn't have any antibodies after they recovered, or had a very low count.

If herd immunity is possible, then that's great and will help us get closer to the old norms sooner.

That story was out there, but then I heard someone say that diabetics tend to produce less antibodies and they may have been over-represented in the sample. So who knows?

Basically, science is all about patience, double blinds, large sample sizes, repetition of results, peer review, etc.

And, for obvious reasons, we are going to be reporting on studies that haven't done anything close to that. So we are going to be hearing lots of stuff--good and bad--that will end up not being true simply because the process that produced it wasn't good science. No one's fault. Just the problem with trying to do something desperately important quickly that really can't be done as quickly as we need.

Representive Austrian antibody study found it in 0.33% of people never registered as covid cases btw which indicates indicates 2/3 undetected (9k cases, assumed 28k actually infected) or a 1% mortality rate.



One limited scope study so far found low antibody counts. May be significant, may be not.

The problem remains that there seems no way to aim for herd immunity before a vaccine unless a lot of things fall into place as far as treatment is concerned or you are fine with 400k dead (and all that entails, including permanetly overrun hospitals and doctors offices and doctors and nurses burning out) instead of 100k between now and then ...
Herd Immunity within the year is not a good outcome.

And that number is for an unrealistic and somhow, despite overloaded hospitals, consistent 0.2 mortality (Influenza) and assumes more young people getting it.

They just had an infectious disease doctor on here in Phoenix and he answered some questions. One person asked about the herd immunity and he said that while we don't know for sure, we do know that most cases have some level of antibodies after being infected. He said that if you did manage to get it again (which he said seemed unlikely given what we know) that you would probably have mild symptoms given you will have some of the antibodies already prevalent.

Not sure if that helps some people here, but it makes sense. Once you have it, even if you win the lottery and get it again, chances are it will be a much milder case than normal.

Yeah, I don't see the herd immunity as the best way out of this, but it's being touted so much recently that I thought there was more information that I hadn't seen. Without a vaccine and without a test that returns accurate results quickly, there's no effective way to protect people who are more vulnerable. Without some form of effective treatment, there's no way to protect people who do catch it. Seems like people are taking the effectiveness of social distancing to mean we can be out and about sooner. I'm not sure if that's the case.

Part of me hopes this doesn't die down through hotter weather. If it does, it's very likely we're back in the same position through the winter. If it doesn't, we potentially make adjustments that will allow us to have some of our freedoms back and limit the next surge until a vaccine is widely available.

How long would you wait after a vaccine is available to take it? 3 months? 6? no wait?

500k confirmed cases in the US

How do you mean ? Personal risk ?

Got to assume they cut no corners in testing it, so with that assumption immediately. I mean, read the leaflets on medication you take and the majority will have more possibly serious side effects than a vaccine.

I had to take meds for neurological pain recently and that list had some stuff at 1/10 chance.

A retirement home 20 miles from me had to be evacuated today after 35 inhabitants and 37 Employees had tested positive over the last 2 week and they essentially ran out of employees even despite 15 volunteers ... And they have banned all visitors since mid march and employees wear masks all day (albeit the regular surgical ones). Just shows how damn impossible the Situation is for these folks ... One employees kid infects him or her and it goes downhill ...

Yesterday was projected to be the peak in Michigan. We aren't there yet, as today (207 deaths) has been almost twice the previous highs.

But even now I'm not scared to catch it because I'm worried about my health, I'm scared to be an asymptomatic carrier. So it'll be helpful to get some hard data on that before anti-gen tests trickle down to the point I'm able to get one without showing symptoms & see if I did have it in February or get it in the interim.

In other fun news, the warehouse I work at (~2500 people) had it's first "confirmed" case yesterday, and 2 more today. They are asking people to wear masks, checking temperatures on the way in & sending anyone over 100.4 home, and have put a fair amount of TSA style emphasis on social distancing or other measures, but while certain functions there are possible to do it's literally impossible to do anything in my department without being within 6 feet of someone a decent amount of time. I think the social quarantining stuff will at least extend past Memorial Day, I think it's an above 50% chance I either already had it or I will get it by then, and given the projected infection rates, my elevated risk of getting it, and even the optimistic vaccine timetable being 18 months I'm kinda just hopeful we have antigen tests by the time rules are relaxed, I test positive, and I can live what social life I'm allowed to have without worrying about infecting other people. A large percentage of this country that is at elevated risk of dying from it will be very slow to come back out of their shell, and larger percentage than we assume will jump fully back in despite that (blame Millennials all you want, but old people get lonely and want to play with their grandkids, crazy Disney people want to make their yearly trip to Disney, dumb people still wanted to go on cruises or to Florida beaches 2 weeks ago etc), but I fully assume you'll start to see things that are tailored more towards people in their 20's & 30's be some of the first things back up (and I can't wait to start hearing all the whining about how selfish people that age are when it happens.)

Local High Schools turned on stadium lights tonight at 8:20 (20:20 military time) And left them on for 20 minutes and 20 seconds. We went down to see it. Taking advantage of whatever things for the seniors.

Of course social distancing was non existent. My daughter saw a group of friends gathered together. Parents were grouped together. Idiots, just stupid. People are dumb and they complain that there wont be a prom or graduation. Well, guess what? This is the reason why. Dumb asses like you that are so selfish.

I feel like people need to relax with the social judgment. Half of our 911 calls right now are people bitching about their neighbors. Our mayor had to put out a social media post begging people to at least use the non-emergency numbers for that. It's like the moment they've lived for, the chance to fucking judge everyone. Our destiny isn't going to be altered if some kids want to hang out, or if some adults want to maintain their mental health with some responsible socializing.

And I'm not sure what positives occur, mental-health wise, with the people obsessed with what everyone else is doing.

Because we (because we all do it, myself included) cannot stop right here explains everything you said in the rest of the post, no?

I'm about to go brave the grocery store, wish me luck.

good luck. So far I have avoided that horror show.

So you're saying someone complaining about social judging did so making a bunch of socially judgey statements?

SI

Are you sure you have nothing left in the house ? Today has got to be the worst possible day, even without Corona going on you would not get me to go into that madness unless i had virtually no food. Even then i would first beg my friends and family to share or call a pizza :D

This morning I had no pizza.

But Kroger's had a killer deal:

90 count Totinos Pizza Rolls for $2 each! Those things will kill me long before any virus will.



But in all seriousness I figured a Saturday morning was the best time to go. The store wasn't that crowded. Though I am feeling like an outcast for not wearing a mask. I'd say 2/3rds of people were wearing one.

We order on-line for pickup (they bring it to the car). Not as convenient as pickup is like 3-4-5 days later but feel better than going into store right now.

Our order this afternoon won't have the bread flour or chicken we ordered. It's not too bad all things considered.

Honestly, my outside interaction is very minimal (an exercise trail, that's basically it) but I'm wearing a mask principally for that reason. It's such a small thing to do, but among its virtues is that it creates social pressure for everyone to do the small thing(s) and we need that right now.

So, sorry not sorry on behalf of the fellow shoppers. Put on a mask (or some covering) when you're out. Nothing personal, just speaking on behalf of your neighbors and friends.

"Peak" is a term getting used a bit loosely. Measuring confirmed cases, versus unmeasurable actual cases, versus deaths... the last number is obviously going to "peak" at a different time.

People transfixed on the confirmed case count are missing an obvious issue, given the continued lack of testing capacity. In MD, frex, we opened one large testing facility at the Washington football stadium, and the next few days that county leapt into the "lead" with the most cases in the state. Just a day or two ago, a new major testing facility in Baltimore opened at Pimlico racetrack, and already there's a major spike in confirmed cases in Baltimore, especially the neighborhood around the racetrack. The dumbass interpretation is that testing sites are causing a spread. The more well-reasoned view seems to be that the cases are already there, remaining unconfirmed, and the confirmed testing numbers are still a function of testing availability more than actual spread of the disease.

Sadly, if the spread itself is peaking now, or soon, it might still be weeks until the death toll itself peaks in those same areas. And our "confirmed case count" will not be accurately tracking either one.

I get that, but I was talking about projected peak deaths, per the model someone linked a while ago. Best info I've heard including from Fauci is that deaths are the last thing to really peak, and so when those start going down consistently we can have reason for optimism.

The mask thing is interesting, because they're still uncommon around here. No more than 1 in 5 I'd say are wearing them. 'Course I live in a part of the country where it's fashionable to post memes on social media about how terrible it is that we are all losing our freedoms.

My health care worker dropped off a few masks, so I was able to spend some time outside, watching the river. Was nice :)

Ok, might be different with different customs. Over here Easter Saturday is the worst along with the last day before Christmas

That's quite the ego you have to assume you speak for my neighbors (the couple that I saw today weren't wearing masks.) or my friends.

It's also bullshit to claim it's not personal and then invoke your made up feelings for my friends.

Got it, thanks. I think you totally got what I was going for there.

And if you don't like my tone on these issues, but want to stay in this thread, I'll save you a little trouble:

Front Office Football Central

Nah, I'll stay and just continue to criticize anything I think is worth criticizing.

You cant ignore moderators. ;)

weird flex, right?

(unintentional)

So you're not allowed to criticize someone for unfairly criticizing others because THAT also counts as a criticism?

All criticism is not equal. Some criticisms are fair and some aren't. It's fair to criticize someone for calling 911 on someone who isn't even violating their jurisdiction's rules, for example. It's fair to criticize someone who attacks someone else for some personal trait they can't control. Using fair criticisms to attack unjust criticisms is a pretty important thing to be able to do.

There can be differences of opinions of what's fair and what's not. We have our individual jurisdiction's rules, and then we have an infinitive number of opinions about how far beyond that the REAL moral rules are. Social pressure can be powerful. But it's never fun to be criticized for violating someone else's personal rule, especially when they use that tone of entitlement which insists that their personal rule is the only correct one and it's binding on everyone else. There is a way to be positively influential, but that takes skill and sincerity.

It's obviously a very fine line, and very subjective, but I do feel like there are folks out there that are taking things a bit too far and/or using external rage as a vent for their own anxieties (which is entirely understandable).

Like, I think it's rational to be concerned about anybody and anything that is likely to be in your orbit, but it's a bit much to call the police on folks you see out your window, across the street.

I try to control my own anxieties about other people's behavior by reminding myself that we're not trying to prevent the spread of the virus entirely, we're trying to slow the spread to the point that it doesn't overwhelm our local healthcare systems, which relaxes my expectations a little bit. That said, my attitude might be entirely different if I lived in a harder-hit area (knock on particle board).

So the british health secretary, after deciding it was needed to remind hospital staff that PPE was a "precious ressource" now felt it was a good idea to question if the thousands infected staff all really caught it while working and not elsewhere.
Yeah, figuring out if the lack of proper PPE is a terrible Problem or a slightly less terrible Problem should really be a priority right now.

And Spains Prime Minister decided on a mask obligation from Monday and on handing them out at train and bus depots and Madrid's transport Minister said they (presumably the regional government) learned of it in the Media.

In Germany our local minister can't wait 3 days to the big 'meeting' of all regional ministers (think Governours) and the national cabinet and leaked his reopening plan to the press, presumably to create public pressure.

Can't forget Turkey announcing a 48h Lockdown (whatever good that is supposed to do) in the media in the evening without clarification of what stays open, leading to hundreds trying to get into the same super markets at the same time.

Can officials not try to switch on their brains and put away their damn egos for a few months ?

Matt Hancock is halfway towards nominative determinism

He’s actually quite good at reading a scripted speech, but as soon as he is asked questions and has to speak off the cuff, he’s an absolute shitstorm

You’ve actually only half caught what he said - what you’ve quoted is accurate, but he also said that perhaps NHS staff were using possibly overusing PPE, by not using pieces long enough.

He should never be allowed to do anything that is not reading off autocue

Yeah, this is a good point, I don't have any masks, this has felt like a good spot to hop on etsy and support some folks there, but I keep forgetting. I just ordered a couple that should be here by the time of my next grocery run. My last grocery trip was over a week ago, almost no one had masks, but the conversation around them has changed a lot since then.

Not exactly where I was going but I can address that too.

Let me flesh it out a bit more. It can not be surprising that people are calling 911 on other people for not practicing for the specific act of improper social distancing in this case. We have been trending towards, encouraging and rewarding people for making similar calls against people for other acts do not even violate the jurisdiction's rules for years now. The focus of these calls has always been the REAL moral rules.Those previous 911 calls were rarely criticized or even questioned. In fact, the idea of questioning the sincerity of those calls seems to draw the strongest criticism. Those previous calls are based on the same social judgement criteria that is currently being used with social distancing. The criteria is "You are not doing it the way I think it should be done." That is why our inability to "relax with the social judgement..." in general is an explanation for everything else that you said IMO.

To be fair though, that’s always been QS. He has always been the smartest guy he knows.

In before he says he is not the smartest guy he knows.

These numbers on NYC ambulance calls for cardiac arrest skyrocket in Mid-March.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckra...d-ravages-city

It's charts like these that really make me doubt the virus was spreading in much volume before February, at least on the East coast.

gotta have a brand

Hospitals in Phoenix haven't been hit nearly as hard as the projections suggested 2-3 weeks ago. This is a good thing (and shows social distancing is working). I wore my Green Bay Packers mask my mom made for me to the store today. I saw a ton of people wearing them.

I think most people seem to get what is going on. Can you stop some high school kids from sitting on their cars and talking in a group? Probably not. But most adults seem to understand the gravity of this (atleast where I am) and I think that's the most you can expect at this point.

I don't really look at the daily numbers (anyone who's read this thread knows why), but instead look at the hospital situation. As long as they are OK, I think things are going as best as one can expect.

Day 28 of lockdown here in Manila We have 18 more days to April 30 when they plan on relaxing it. We’re creeping towards 5,000 cases soon. :/

Our stay-at-home is through end of April also. However, the restrictions are not as harsh as you guys. How's things going? Hope you and family are doing okay?

The head physician at the main Austrian Hospital for treating Covid said yesterday they stopped using the Malaria drug due to it not having any measurable clinical benefit both for symptoms and 'lung condition' and actually had a lot of patients taking a sharp turn to the worse. Of course they are less desperate but maybe that is not a bad thing when it comes to judging actual effects.
He is however cautiously optimistic as far as Remdesivir (the ebola medication) is concerned ...

For him, the main thing that helps is treating patients early and without being overstressed due to high caseload. As soon as you have to make compromises (which is way before you run out of ventilators) success ratio goes down a lot.

One thing that was interesting is they and german doctors have increasingly been using a system that lies between respirators and ventilators. Basically a high pressure respirator treatment that in the early stages of the 'downturn' (when patients start to have trouble breathing) prevents a lot of patients from having to be ventilated.

I don't believe the REAL moral rules are set by the people who decide their personal moral rules are binding on everyone. They are definitely are the loudest. That counts for something I guess. But if some guy calls 911 on someone walking their dog, no, that's not the REAL moral rule, it's just his rule. And he's actually committing a misdemeanor crime in some jurisdictions by using that means to try to enforce his rule - which is a pretty good hint that his rule is not the real one.

And I know I probably live in a different world on this than most people, but yes, using the 911 system, and police generally, to try to enforce one's own moral code is definitely something that is wrong, takes resources to combat, and is a big everyday part of the lives of the people who actually enforce the legal rules even in normal times. And I think people confuse those concepts a lot - they think someone wronged them, they put so much weight on that perceived wrong that they just kind of assume it's a police matter, they get the police involved, no law has been violated, the police leave, everybody's pissed. That dynamic is just happening a lot more now with people trying to involve the police to enforce their own ideas of what people should be doing right now. So much that our mayor posted a video to ask people to please stop.

And yes, I also can get annoyed with people who broadly judge those who aren't living in full compliance with their own particular non-binding moral code, even if they don't involve the police. THAT, I admit, is something I need to take my own advice about more often and just ignore it rather than let it annoy me. But, sometimes, rarely, it just goes to a point where I want to defend someone or myself.

Can This Virus Mutate?
 

So, this forum has a lot of smart, well-educated folks on it, so I feel like this is a good place to pose this question. What are the chances of this COVID-19 mutating over time and becoming an extinction-level event?

In my ongoing report on how stores are handling curbside pickups, we had to order cat litter from Petsmart after striking out at 2 grocery stores. They had it ready for us almost right after we placed the order. Drove up to the curb, cashier had gloves on, checked my ID, then put them in the trunk for us. Pretty easy all in all if we weren't dealing with a virus.

Virtually zero. Viruses always mutate, but that typically ends up in them getting weaker. We know there are at least two strains of COVID-19, though I haven't read up on the major differences between them. In terms of becoming an extinction-level thing though … it would need to be several orders of magnitude worse in terms of lethality. I.e., if it were as contagious as it is now and had a SARS-like death rate (around 10%, far worse than COVID), it would be horrifying but humanity would still survive it. Probably not with anything like our current way of life though.

Yeah, this is not happening, thankfully. There are thought to be actually plenty of strains but they are all virtually identical. Which is great news for vaccination btw !
Basically corona viruses do mutate but they largely don't really change their core properties, if that makes sense. "Mutating" means different things for a scientist than what is implied when you read, say, the dailymail.

This explains it decently well i thougth:

8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.

Also, this from a US Scientist working on it:

Here’s how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Thanks. I appreciate your well-reasoned responses. Just what I was hoping for. Stay safe and happy!

Continuing to see the consensus cracking. Family, neighbors, etc. started to really get irritated at what some of the exceptions are and aren't in our current shutdown order, but also more sentiment towards herd immunity, we can't live in paralyzed fear forever, we shouldn't give up freedom for security, I remember when it was the sick and not the healthy who wore masks, etc.

By May there's going to be a lot of demand to open things back up whether we're ready for it or not. And I still fear what happens in the fall.

Was always going to be tough getting people to consider not themselves or even the person they meet but a random person that gets really sick 4 weeks and 4 transmissions later. It's tough to explain to young(ish) healthy people how them meeting up for a barbecue could result in someone dying none of them knows or ever meets.
Personally i think this aspect is not getting enough attention in media and politicians talking.

Putting aside the early zig zag course that will have ended up doubling the death total (they really had all the time to avoid these Italy/Spain numbers) I actually do like the 'workaround' the UK is using now, making this about protecting the NHS and it's doctors, nurses and other staff from both direct harm and getting overwhelmed.

Personally i find myself being most struck by what is happening in Retirement facilities where folks are essentially isolated almost entirely now* and still ultimately at the mercy of what happens outside.
No matter how badly you try to keep it out ,more infected young people will always mean more cases in retirement homes, too. Only takes one staff member infected and ultimately result in half the people infected a week later and many, many deaths 2 weeks later.

* Which comes with its own cruelty.

Trump retweeted someone saying it was time to fire Fauci.

What a fucking coward. He's incapable of any normal human relationship.

Who could have possibly predicted that?

On the fun side we're also up to 6 confirmed cases at my warehouse.

In both cases these facts on the ground seem very predictablee.

My point wasn't that it was a surprise, but that it is myopic and wrong. The striking thing about all of this is that there's never a viable way to deal with the consequences. The people I'm talking about aren't willing to say we should let people of a certain age or with strokes etc. just die without medical treatment, there's all sorts of engaging in straw men vis a vis the restrictions, and so on. None of them can cite a single public health expert who thinks it makes sense to open back up right now. All of which leads me to conclude it's based on emotion not logic - people are mad at the situation and lashing out at the easiest target, without considering the consequences fully.