Mid to end, but there aren't any polls post the Access Hollywood video yet, so it will likely be hard to separate the debate from the video in polling.

YouGov had a poll that they say is mostly post tape release that showed Clinton up 6 in a national 4 way race.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/1...support-falls/

.@CNN instant poll of debate watchers:
Clinton: 57%
Trump: 34%

— Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) October 10, 2016

Not great Trump

Must be disappointing for Trump backers. He made big promises, got people to jump on the wagon, and is the worst candidate to ever run for office. If I were a diehard republican and hated the Clintons I could still not vote for this tool. He really is making no attempt to change or attempt to win this election. I am not sure why at this point he thinks status quo is going work. He needs something big to happen quickly for this election to not be the most lopsided since Mondale/Reagan.

Donald Trump Got Curved by Both His Daughters Tonight

Trump may have business skills but his common sense and people skills are awful. He comes off as an childish arrogant asshole.

FYI people arent as big of a fan of HRC as you seem to think. People just really fucking despise Donald Trump and his act.

You might be able to get away with locker room talk when you are 17-19 years old but when you are 60 it doesnt work for me. Plus with his comments against others is just too much to take.

And talking about how you can get away with sexually assaulting women because you're rich and famous isn't "locker room talk."

Imagine if in 2008, Obama said that, if he won, he was going to put McCain in jail.

But Hillary belongs in jail. "I'm sorry" doesn't make up for security breach and cover up.

Yup! Republicans botched the primaries. Should have gotten Trump out of the way ASAP.

So...you're directing the FBI now then?

F.B.I. Director James Comey Recommends No Charges for Hillary Clinton on Email - The New York Times

Yes, I was telling my wife the same thing. Now Van Jones on the other, just make too much damn sense when he speaks.

I'm not sure how to respond to this. They said upfront that the polls skews Democratic (how much?), then claims Clinton won? A better poll would be focusing on independent/moderate voters only.

He's not stupid in that he knows how to appeal to the absolute worst in people. There's a reason some of his most ardent supporters are white nationalists and aryan nation types.

Country is too polarized and politics have been turned into a sport to ever get Mondale/Reagan numbers for awhile. A cardboard cutout gets 40% of the vote.

Not sure Trump is the worst. We've had George Wallace not too long ago. Breckinridge was actually convicted of treason.

Mondale got 40.6% of the popular vote.

Heh. Trump tried a gotcha and got told "no way" by the debate panel and now he's in a royal snit and suggesting he's not going to do the third debate.

Josh Barro on Twitter: "Trump wanted the Clinton accusers in the Trump family box. CPD refuses. Trump camp furious, now threatening to exit LV debate. https://t.co/PcwyJxWCAm"

Here's a WaPost story on it.

Trump’s debate plan to seat Bill Clinton’s accusers in family box was thwarted - The Washington Post

So the loser of this debate is America. The winner.... is Russia?

I dunno, we're f***ing screwed either way.

The fact that America can not consider a 3rd party will lead to our downfall

The winner is general stupidity.

I'm voting for Gary Johnson (michigan voter here) until someone changes my mind

Now that the election is a foregone conclusion, I'm definitely doing the same. Hoping to see him hit the 5% barrier nationally so the Libertarian Party gets access to a slice of the federal election campaign fund.

See, I used to think that, too. That Kasich would have wiped the floor with her, and that even Rubio and Bush would have given her trouble because none of those three would be as easily pigeonholed as extremist/unfit etc.

She would have had to run an "actual" campaign against those three instead of following Napoleon's apocryphal advice against interrupting an enemy while he's making a mistake.

But...look, bottom line: Trump declared his candidacy for President in June of '15. He sewed up the nomination in May of '16, save for the dying gasps of the #NeverTrump movement flailing from May through July for a way to cockblock him at the convention.

They had, then, 13 months to find, if not the Access Hollywood tapes, *something* in the 30 years The Donald has been spewing shit on the public record. It's not like there's been any shortage of it.

They couldn't do it. In 13 months, they couldn't find the nuclear option to take him down.

It took Hillary Clinton's campaign 2 1/2 months, and that was after weeks of just a rat-a-tat-tat of bad optics for the Trump ticket.

Kasich would have stomped Clinton? He couldn't hit the enormous bulls-eye on Trump's back, and he didn't carry a single state outside Ohio.

I mean, maybe he would have made a better President than either Clinton or Trump. That's a defensible argument.

But, I mean, the argument for Kasich stomping Clinton at this point amounts to "he wouldn't have self-destructed." There certainly isn't any evidence that his oppo team would have been able to find either a smoking gun for an existing scandal or something entirely new to hang around Clinton's neck. Not if they missed the mountain of shit Trump has left in his wake.

Come on, HRC! The MSM served you up an October Surprise that was supposed to crush Trump and now I'm hearing this morning that at best HRC won a draw last night? Between her choice of VP and this, can she do anything right? Pathetic.

As opposed to, say, actually getting away with sexually assaulting women. And then having your wife step in and shame and threaten the women so your political career continues?

Right, she isnt Trump.

From what I read Hillary wasnt defended at all in that comment by that particular poster.

Because, in tarcone's mind and everyone like him, a criticism of Trump is also a support for HRC.

Hillary just needs to avoid making news for the last month, and she has it in the bag, really. The news this morning seems to be focusing on Trump telling Hillary she will go to jail if he's elected, which will fire up the base, but not much else. And his reaction to the tapes from the debate. And his trying to bring the Bill Clinton accusers to the debate.

Not much on Hillary at all. Probably just as she'd prefer it. The more desperate he gets, the better it is for her, I'd have to think.

NPR had 4 people on from Cincinnati, including one who was undecided. That guy said he was frustrated by lack of discussion of the issues. When has Trump ever talked about the issues? The only thing he can speak on semi-intelligently is taxes and the economy, and even then it's a struggle. When they asked that guy if he was surprised by anything in the debates, I mentioned to my wife that I was surprised that this undecided voter could write or speak in sentences considering the fact that one candidate has dozens of documented policy stances, and the other's stance is basically "trust me, I'll be good."

Source? I keep hearing this and I've struggled to find anything. Bill sleeping around is obviously a fact. The broaddrick lady I saw testified under oath that it was all made up from what I saw. In my Google searches I've yet to see anything supported by anything remotely resembling fact but I may be missing something.

You know, you make a lot of sense here. I completely agree.

Yep. 538's Polls-only forecast this morning has the election at an 82.4% chance of victory for Hillary Clinton. Obviously the debate numbers aren't baked in, but neither is the 'locker room talk' scandal.

I just wish time travel had been invented so we could just jump past these next few days to Election Day

Most people don't like or trust the news these days. Don't equate what the news runs somehow reflects to what the average American thinks.

Add a third/fourth podium and surprisingly people stick to the issues more. Ross Perot kept the mudslinging between Clinton and Bush to minimum. Make it only two than it's just a back and forth argument about personalities and past events. What do I know though? Being on the ballot in all 50 states and polling at around 10% means you have no chance. You know because there are so many people (3) that have done both of those things.

Ryan done with Trump.

https://apnews.com/92064557517f43118e4ce892b5020431

Hillary went from +1 to +7 in todays Rasmussen poll and that poll leans R. Poll conducted Oct 5-6, 9 so doesn't even capture all of the fallout from the audio tape.

Enabler or family defender? How Hillary Clinton responded to husband’s accusers - The Washington Post

This seems to be the best roundup unless you actually believe the Clinton's were murdering family pets etc.

Well we can unskew that poll if you would like. It works out really well for people when they do so. If you don't want to trust that poll YouGov also had a instant poll with Hillary winning 47-42 and winning with undecideds 44-41.

The main concern I would have if I was working with Trump is that he needed to win this debate and he didn't do it in the eyes of voters. So, where does his campaign go from here?

Still hasn't rescinded endorsement.

Wow. I think this is the first poll done completely after the tape came out.

Sam Stein on Twitter: "SIREN
NBC/WSJ poll
Clinton Trump (4-way)
46%-35%

Clinton Trump (2-way)
52%-38%"

If the GOP goes full on civil war now...

Well, as Trump said, you just grab 'em by the Paul Ryan.*

*joke stolen from I don't remember who.

We remember the GOP primary debates, right?

Having a heard time figuring out if Pence, Cruz, or Ryan is going to come out of this looking the most emasculated.

I think Cruz is winning that race, but it's close.

I think Cruz for sure. That phone banking meme is going to live on forever and he completely sold out to support someone who had criticized his wife and father, only to have the campaign crash soon after. If he'd waited just a little bit longer, he'd be the hero.

Cruz hands down. Repeatedly eviscerated in debates, booed (and played by Trump) at the convention, makes trite endorsement just before Trump really craters, and that picture of him making fundraising calls under a Trump/Pence sign (looking like someone just killed his dog) puts the icing on the cake.

Both Pence and Ryan can escape this somewhat by saying "look, we tried to get him back on the straight-and-narrow". This works less for Pence, unless he really does drop out.

Cruz, and it isn't close. After all of that posturing, especially at the convention, he knuckled, endorsed, and went phone banking.

And got photographed looking like he was in tears doing so. That shit'll live forever.

Pence looks a little weird because of the conflict between he and Trump, but I wouldn't go so far as to say 'emasculated.'

Ryan hasn't come across to me as being especially strong here, but not especially weak, either.

In calls this morning, many Rs privately want to defect from Trump. But they say the debate gave them pause since he roused their base.

— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 10, 2016

Meanwhile, Trump circle gloating. Privately mocking elected Rs who are agonizing. One laughed and said, "We don't care."

— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 10, 2016

So if Trump is going down he doesn't care who he takes with him. Always good to have from your party's presidential nominee.

Looks like you can buy Trump/GOP/Pence somewhere around 18-19 cents on the dollar. In a buy/sell market like PredictIt, I'm tempted to cal this a "bottom" and buy Trump now just on the working assumption that it can't get much worse. But sure I will... but it does feel like a defensible play here.

When it was down to 3 it wasn't all that bad. I agree 8-9 would be a bit much.

Trump seems to be declaring war on the Republicans

Earlier he tweeted that Ryan needed to worry more about legislating and stop criticizing the nominee for President. His press secretary just tweeted that she can't keep her phone charged from due to all of the texts she's getting from people who will vote Trump but not for Republicans down ballot.

Ok.

That's like the best news possible for Democrats.

This could be the bombshell Trump needs



edit: whoops, beaten to the punch

In this upcoming third Clinton-Turmp debate, I'm waiting for someone to say "Live from New York, this is Saturday Night". At this point, nothing else makes sense...

I'm as fearful of a Trump presidency as anyone but is the media really going to Alex Jones to discredit him. He can't actually be friends with that lunatic can he? If not, how irresponsible has the press become?

Is grabbing a woman's genitals sexual assault? Millions of women think it is. The justice department thinks it is. Trump surrogates? NOT SO SURE.

Donald Trump’s backers have been reduced to suggesting groping may not be sexual assault - The Washington Post

Wow. Why hasn't Clinton been running with this the entire campaign? Alex Jones is beyond out to lunch.

I seem to remember lots of pearl clutching going on about how there was going to be a wave of women being groped and assaulted in public bathrooms by transgenders. Quite a few people I know who were worried about that are now trying to pass off Trump's statements as "just saying mean things about women", when he is admitting he did what they were concerned about happening.

I guess that's one way to try to get the evangelical vote. What a lunatic.

What the hell is going on? I can't imagine what the night/day after will be like. Both sides are nuts.

The sun will come up and then set again.

I dare say one side is just a wee bit nuttier than the other here.

It'll be pretty much the same as it is now.

The two sides will hate each other fairly passionately, neither will have the balls to actually do much about it except talk incessantly.

Business as usual for most of several decades really.

Trump campaign now officially confirms @CoreyStewartVA is out. Not sure he's been told yet. pic.twitter.com/GVRFPaWZm5

— Garrett Haake (@GarrettHaake) October 10, 2016

OK I missed something here-what did this guy do?

Yeah what's the backstory here?

This is what I've found:

Trump campaign fires Virginia chairman Corey Stewart following protest at RNC | News | pilotonline.com

From the articles I'm reading, he staged a pro-Trump rally/protest outside the RNC offices in Virginia.

Hrm, so he was protesting the RNC and that got him bounced? RNC must not be quite distancing from Trump as much as was though.

So he's been fired for being too vociferously pro-Trump. That's a new one.

Pro Trump and anti-puke.

Right idea, but probably a good notion to get that cleared from above first.

As others have said it's easily Cruz. That phone bank meme + the phrase cuckservative won't go away. He's done unless his dad actually assassinates HRC like he did JFK.

The endorsement hanging out there is a little weird, but I think Ryan can come out mostly unscathed nationally if he can keep his mouth shut and deflect everything. The press will hammer him and try desperately to get him saying anything about Trump though, so he might have to go full Marshawn Lynch in any press conferences this next month.

I can't figure out Pence. He was a nobody nationally 3 months ago, who's actually tried to do some of the more abhorrent things Trump says, but does it civilly enough and is close enough to a lightning rod he really hasn't been tarred with those yet. Like Mitt & unlike 90% of politicians I think he's sincere with his faith stuff, so I don't know how he plays out going forward.
You know PredictIt much better than I, but I think he could see a drop down to 15% as the media focuses on Republican infighting & some more bad polls come out for him this week. I do agree he'll get a dead cat bounce from the Hannity debate.



Also, George Soros is a nice shady boogeyman, but Warren Buffett seemed like an odd guy to bring up last night, and he predictably bodied Trump today. Some Tax Facts for Donald Trump | Business Wire

Eh, I disagree. Both are nuts. Both candidates are pretty darn awful character wise. Nothing will change, really. I mean, if Clinton wins, Congress will still be split.

I mean...everyone is entitled to their opinion, but one candidate in this race is running a pretty traditional campaign and is a pretty standard -- if deeply flawed -- politician (granted, one whose opponents have been trying to have all sorts of allegations stick to her for 25 years).

The other is a made-for-television walking carnival who has eschewed all conventions of a traditional campaign and is down with conspiracy theorists (or in the case of birtherism actually is one) who suggest that the opponent is a literal demon.

Yeah, those are roughly equivalent.

Heh. Some of the signs at the above-mentioned protest at the GOP are cringe-inducing:

Tara Setmayer on Twitter: "HAPPENING NOW: Pro Trump rally in front of the RNC HQ in DC. Unbelievable how ignorant some of the signs are. The GOP must reject this crap! https://t.co/ILSLvkKhZb"

Yes: "Better to Grab a P***Y then be one". Says a lot about that jackhole's relationship with women, huh?

edit: oh, and if this whackjob wants to be taken seriously, he should have the courage to spell out the verboten word huh?

Why is it better to grab a pygmy than to be one?

No no no, you got it all wrong, he was referring to PUTTY, remember the playdoh donation Donald made? He was referring to THAT and referring to the "spineless" ness of those not firmly behind Herr Trump.

edit: Here's the rest of the five letter words that begin with p and end with y.. personally, I just think this whackamaroon was being pissy ;)

http://letterword.com/index.php/five...d-ending-in-y/

Many times they seem to come up ... short.

Forget Cuban, I'd like to see someone pay George Takei $5M to grab Trump by the balls and see if he presses charges.

George Takei Oh My - YouTube

So I was polled today on my thoughts on Donald no longer running. They ran Mitt/Pence by me and most ridiculously, Mitt/Jeb. They didn't say for whom they were polling, but it would be very interesting if it wasn't a media outlet.

Literally had this exact conversation with my 8 y.o. foster daughter this week when she came home with a two day in-school suspension for lining up girls at recess to smack them on the ass and call them "fucking bitches".

She was like, "I called them the b-word."

And I was like: "Which b-word is that? I don't think I know that word."

(whispers) "Bitches."

Me: "And what's this f-word here? It says you 'aksdently' said an f-word? By the way, 'accidentally' is now on your spelling list. If you're going to use a word to lie, you should at least be able to spell it correctly."

(whispers) "Fucken."

"So, you called them fucking bitches?" (nods) "You know what? If you can say those words at school, you can say them in front of me without staring at your feet. What was it you called them?"

"Fucken bitches."

"Did that seem like a good idea?"

"Not now."

"Then there you go. Do your detention, don't complain about it, and pay more attention when you're spelling."

Hope she doesnt run for president as a republican.

Yeah, because the Republican front-runner might make sexist remarks about her. Good point.

I wouldn't worry about it. At the rate she's going, she'll be lucky if she can stay out of jail until she graduates high school. The incident above is literally the least of her offenses at school in the last week.

Or be raped by the dems front runners husband and then shamed by her.

.

oof.

Just for the record: making rapey jokes about my 8 y.o. foster daughter really isn't cool.

Jesus is love, you liberal scum.

Sorry. She got caught in the cross fire.

But I am truly impressed with her leadership skills. Not many people can get others to line up and get hit and called fucking bitches. If you can channel that in the right direction, you got a winner there.

In at 18 this morning, can sell now at 21. Weird times.

Don't sweat it. I appreciate the apology. I'm always telling my wife that the problem with us guys is that given the chance to say the right thing or the funny thing, we're going to pick the funny thing roughly 70% of the time. :)

Locker Room talk

Unfortunately 90% of us really aren't that funny.

So the supporters don't understand how the Constitution and Congress works and how the laws are passed? Yep--great idea--vote in Trump, but vote out the people in Congress that you need to carry out the legislation that you want done (repeal ObamaCare, Supreme Court, tax reform, immigration, ect.).