I have to point out that the two possible wolf-wolfs were the same both days, so the fact that it happened twice isn't at all surprising.

So last night I am deep in this poker tournament, like 30 left out of 2000. I get AJ in the BB. Small blind min raises and I reraise. He calls. Flop comes J J A, pretty sweet, flop a boat. He bets out, I reraise and he puts me all in, obviously thinking I am making a move. I call and show my boat. He has KQ suited for flush and straight draws, neither good for him because I already made the boat. Guess what the next 2 cards are. King and a King giving him a bigger full house. Do you know what the odds of that are?

Man, it takes forever to catch up on all of this stuff. Is anyone else having difficulty keeping up with the pace of this game? Is it just me?

Wow, Lathum...that is just downright unlucky.

I'm sorry, did you think I was talking to you regarding the odds Lathum? Sorry, no, wasn't.

It's going a little fast, but I was also gone all night last night - doesn't seem much worse than other games.

The criticize of EF points me to the conclusion that we were even more likely wolf-wolf. That move reeks of desperation

So I'm not allowed to respond then?

I'm sorry, frustration or not, you are way to nice a guy to be acting like this. It all seems to contrived. And if it's not you are off my Xmas card list.

yeah, considering there were only 30 people left in the tourny, I would have been close to the chipleader.

30 pages of posts by the end of Day Two? that doesn't seem fast to you?

Nah, not that nice a guy obviously. I'm pissed at myself for wasting two days this game and now this morning. I'm out, start the run.

The problem with running those numbers is that it is not in a vacuum. We already have wolf/villager revealed, so I think it is just a matter of probability that you are wolf/villager based on assumptions on their numbers.

Assuming 4 starting wolves, out of 21, with EF already revealed, that leaves 3 of 20 = 15%.

Again, Day 2 we already have a wolf in the mix so it is 3 of 19, or just a bit higher than 15% (don't have Calc open).

I'm all for math for solving problems, but I don't think that the context you are proposing (that we don't know NTN = villager and EF = wolf) makes all that much sense.

probably about the same as you bothering to call or text me to tell me not to bother to wait for you to roll last night since you were playing poker instead of WoW?

heh, I just realized that PB isn't even in the lead right now -- Telle is up on him 3-2.

umm, are you my wife or something? ;)

Unless you were up playing WoW at 2 AM I think it's irrelevant.

i agree that PB's frustration, which is totally understandable...i have been in the same spot you are in now and wanted to kill everyone...does seem out of character for what I know of him as a normally a level headed, easy going dude (but i also havent been around much lately)

i dont necessary know if i would call it contrived.

perhaps this will make him fee better.

vote telle

Well it certainly doesn't make ME feel better.

I realize according to PB I'm dense, but I must have missed why people suspect Telle. I just don't see it.

True - but these games always have a lot of posts, I just come to expect it I suppose.

Anyway, I'm off for now.

I think we clearly have at least five starting wolves, plus the sympathizer. EF had a non-listed role.

Vote count as of #1620:

4 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)

I'm eager to see some more votes today. I'm not crazy about the company I'm keeping at this moment, and maybe I'm on the wrong person.

Okay, off for real now.

Didn't purdue vote pass?

Thank you I missed that. He did in post #1578.

Yeah, he did. Which is odd that I made it so high on his distrust list, since he was so willing to follow my thoughts yesterday. Looking through Day 2, I noticed this:


Thoughts?

What is the case against Telle, exactly? I remember people were throwing her around as a candidate yesterday afternoon but there's too many pages for me to go digging.

Page 26 is where I "started" the votes for her on Day 2. Poli mentioned her, based on PB saying something was weird about her reaction with ntn on Day 1. However, PB doesn't have his vote on her now, even though it would help his self-preservation (of course, it's probably too early to worry about that).

I'm also kind of curious about the case on Telle. She had posted that she thought NTN was getting a raw deal on Day 1, which was part of the notion to introduce a 3rd candidate alongside NTN/EF. However, if she was posting on behalf of NTN while trying to save EF then that is a pretty nuanced play. Bravo if that is what happened, but my take on it was that she was playing it the way she stated in the thread.

I'm hoping to be around most of the afternoon to look at voting records, but I don't recall Telle doing anything highly noteworthy in either direction on this end. Back to meetings ...

It started with PurdueBrad thinking I was protecting ntn.. but then ntn came up good. So then it was speculated that maybe I was protecting EF. Both days I didn't like the cases against EF and decided to go PB instead. But lots of other people didn't vote for EF either. So, I dunno why people think I'm the worst out of the bunch.

Following logic - that might be the first time anyone's said that about me.

Fun, dramatic Poli - That sounds more like it.

Vote Telle

Seems like the right move to me.

Why does it seem like the right move?

As of post #1633:

5 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)
1 - Passacaglia - PurdeuBrad (1578)

I haven't been a fan of Telle's responses since I saw her jockeying around PB a few days back.

I don't have strong feelings towards voting for PB or Telle, so I'm going to vote for someone who's posts have been pinging me. I'll switch if this doesn't develop but maybe someone else feels similarly.

He voted NTN day one and put a vote on EF putting him in a 6-5 vote lead yesterday, but also before PB had switched onto EF, so could've been a necessary wolf on wolf there.

VOTE PF

I don't get the Pass vote, though. Whether he intended to or not, he played a critical role in the lynch of EF.

I can't recall a single PF post in the game, actually.

He has a fair few, but he's been quiet enough. Not like this game is deep in or anything, though.

If you think it was wolf-wolf yesterday why not just vote for PB?

You know, I was just going to mention that - I have barely posted this game, haha.

No I mean wolf-wolf as in PF on EF. That would be assuming PB is good - if they're both wolves then it doesn't really matter, but I lean towards PB not being a wolf.

But I do understand and sympathize with the need to know whether or not PB is good for better vote analysis.

I don't really see that -- I really intended to unvote EF, and I don't think I should be moved up a notch just because I flubbed it. And I think intent is more important than where my vote actually got recorded in the end.

That was a poor choice of words, don't take that to mean I'm the sympathizer or anything.

Yeah, I was rethinking that as well.

But it's still a bad vote, since I'm good! :)

lol

I never voted for PB on Day One.