I just want to say that the noisier people are, the easier it is to clutter the thread with baseless talk and redirection.

That being said, i've checked the post-count...

... and am amazed that only Alan T is dead among those with 100+ posts. Either the Tarqs are simply letting the talkative guys talk a lot, or that at least one or two of the top guys in post-count are Tarqs.

Can't decide which is which. :)

lol...hi, Neon. :)

Well, actually, hoopsguy ended upa s the other consul. I was a distant third, I believe, and Coffee Warlord may have caught me. Also, the deadline is Saturday morning (I believe at 9 a.m. EST, not sure).

I'm working on a theory to determine someone to arrest, but since I didn't egt the consul position, it will only be a suggestion. But I have a good feeling about my theory. More coming soon.

Oops. I just seem to be making mistake after mistake. My apologies.

9am EST works very well for me, as it's 3PM for me. That is what I was refering to. I'm very receptive to any theories you have as I have a lot of my own and it will be interesting to see if they match up.

Okay then Hoops. I'll post the person I've put an arrest warrant on. Please post your arrest candidate today in case I want to change my arrest order tomorrow (unless you're going to be around then as well).

Hey Peregrine. I'm no Tarq, baby. I'm just chillin' like Kim Jong Il-lin'

How exactly does this scanning this work? All the clutter in the thread is just a jumble in my mind.

Well it's not actually solely the people with big post counts who could be accused of attempted misdirection is it? Some people have been following a very under the radar approach (posting enough not to stand out but not enough to actually contribute a great deal) and still managed to try and direct attention away from anything useful.

That's what I hate "analysis". :) Around 45 useless posts that end up answering nothing every hour or so.

This is the first game where I'm actually feeling very overwhelmed. I want vote counts, I want to reread the whole thread to try and clarify some things in my head, I want lists of services hired and who has tried to hired services but failed, I want to know the suing tally. But I just don't think any one person has the time to do that. Any help here would be appreciated because we seem to be fighting a losing cause at the moment and we need to start pulling together as a team.

Where are you from, Narcizo? :) You seem to be on at the same time that I am... and I'm pretty much half-way around the world from all these guys.

How do you propose we decide who the traitors are? By seeing who hasn't professed loyalty to the Republic - as that seems to be your methodology for clearing yourself.

I'm going to come out and say that I'm very suspicious of you at the moment. If you weren't a lawyer I'd be very likely to arrest you today. As it is I don't think we can afford losing another lawyer at the moment unless there's more to go on. That being said I don't think we can afford to risk having a lawyer who is a wolf either. I would strongly urge whoever has Ardent's services to scan Neon today please.

I live in Sweden. It's the (late) morning to me at the moment.

:rolleyes:

Cool. It's 5:00 PM here in lovely Manila.

+1?

However I have to admit that the deployment of the rolley-eyes has left my "analysis" in smoking ruins, so I withdraw anything.

Not even a standard "I know I'm good so I welcome someone to clear me"?

Nope. Not needed.

Okay, here is the game opening wealth list. I have included notes on who is dead and who hired Day One services:

****

The wealthiest men in Rome are:

Bulletus Spongeus-- DEAD (vouched to be good by AE & Schmidty)-- Won service of legionnaire
Dodgus Erchickus-- won service of Ardent
Imus Thecrewus-- DEAD (vouched to be good by AE)--claimed to not bid on any services

The following Senators are known to be extremely wealthy:

Coffeus Yakus Warlordus-- won service of Swaggs
Ironsus Headus-- won service of priests
Lonestarus Girlus-- not too active
Marcus Vaughnus (replaced by Passacaglia)-- not too active
Schmidtyus Schmidtyus-- DEAD (definitely good)

The following Senators are known to be moderately wealthy:

Abeus Anxietus-- won service of horse owner
Antus Meisterus
Autumnus Leavus
Barkeepus Valerius Fortynineus
Pathus Twelveus
Peregrinus Barbarus
Snus Dvlus-- DEAD (definitely good)
Westvus Fanus (replaced by Mustang)

The following (remaining) Senators are of ordinary wealth for the Senatorial class:

Alanus Teeus-- DEAD (definitely good)-- won service of horse owner
Ardentus Enthusiastus-- Won service if legionnaire
Chiefus Rumus
Daddyus Torgous
Grammus Atticus
Hoopus Guyus
Kayus Whitus
Narcizus Lispus
Neonus Chaosus
Saldanus Lathumus-- DEAD (unknown)
Swaggus Swaggus-- DEAD (definitely good)
Tyrus Ithus

From hoops, services gired below:

Services won for Day One

Day 1:
Gallus Clarus, ex-legionnaire (Ardent)
Titus Ludius, ex-legionnaire (Bullet)
Durus Pimpus, dealer in sexual slaves
Animus Sentus, person rumored to be affiliated with the Priesthood (Ironhead)
Furius Lucius, former warlord of Gaul, enslaved and now freed
Lexus Postus, owner of many horses (Alan)
Blakus Fortunatus, owner of many horses (Anxiety)
Swaggus Swaggus (Coffee)
Ardentus Enthusiastus (Dodgerchick)

*****

Some of this guesswork, but I don't think there is anything above we are assuming too much here. We know where most of the services went. We know wealth is how service hiring is determined. We're fairly certain the ex-warlord is the sword killer, seemingly confirmed now by Coffee Warlord, if we had a doubt. The only dead person we have a real doubt on for allegiance is saldana, and he was too low on the wealth totem pole at the beginning to be likely to win a service anyway.

Someone hired the warlord on Day One, someone who used that warlord to murder Swaggs. A Tarq. It had to be someone with enough wealth to outbid others. It would help us tons if we knew of anyone we can confirm as good as having bid on the warlord and failed on Day One. We can then eliminate everyone below that person as being the Day One sword killer patron (although certainly not as a Tarq).

The top tier is pretty clear. DC said she hired AE. No one has denied this. She hasn't said anything to my knowledge that hasn't checked out.

Bullet and ITC are both almost certainly good, and the only way they aren't is if ardent is bad. I think that's a stretch right now (that ardent is bad), because he would have had to be playing a brilliant game so far to get this far without more suspicion. Plus, Schmidty is guaranteed good (killed by Tarqs), and he confirmed bullet's goodness. Finally, ITC himself stated he didn't bid on any services on Day One (or Day Two or Day Three, way to go). So the sword killer patron is not in the top tier.

In the next tier, Coffee Warlod's hirng of Swaggs was confirmed by st. cronin. Schmidty, as mentioned, is confirmed good. Ironhead has a lot of evidence in his favor for being good, and everything he has said that could be has checked out. That leaves Marc Vaughan and LSG from this tier. LSG posted on Day One and not since. She may have put in an order for the killer and used it and then gone away (for whatever reason), but regardless, she is already under arrest. I think we should throw her off the rock anyway; this possibility she is the sword killer patron is only a further excuse to do it. MV hasn't posted at all, or maybe once, and now he has been replaced by Pass. Pass also stood in for him on Day One. It's possible Pass sent in a bid and kill order for MV. But if MV was a wolf, I believe, he would have been repalced sooner than four days in. My point is, I think LSG and MV are longshots to be the sword kilelr patron (but possible).

That puts us into the next group, and the group I think we need to make our primary focus as being where our sword killer patron is hiding. Anxiety claimed to hire horses and no one denied it. Did he send a message and someone confirmed? I forget. But I believe he hired the horse owner. SnDvls is confirmed good by death at the hands of the Tarqs. And WVU Fan was a consul and didn't do a thing and was replaced. I think it's unlikely he was the sword killer patron from Day One.

That leaves this group: Anthmeister, Autumn, Barkeep, Path12 and Peregrine.

Some of these guys have already been bandied about abit. Barkeep's unfortunate circumstance tonight certainly muddies his waters as well. We have a Tarq in this group, guys, at least one. I almost guarantee it. I think Alan T was extremely fortunate to nab a service in the tier lower than that. He got lucky with that. I doubt greatly the warlord fell past this group.

I have given five (plus Passacaglia if you think he could have put in a kill order for MV on Monday). I would welcome discussion of all five as potential Tarqs. Two of them should be the targets of our arrests. Two others should be the targets of our scans.

As other people have suggested I'd like everyone to nominate one person they would lynch today were this a standard game of werewolf. Some sort of explanation would be nice as well. :)

lol...what a group we late nighters (my time) are, huh? One guy in the Phillipines, one guy in Sweden, and then there's me, the night shift American deep deep in the wee morning hours.

I trust noone.

We rock the thread when noone's watching. :cool:

I'd lynch you.

But I'd go ahead and say I'd probably vote for hoopsguy or AE, going with my post-count theory.

Of course I could be wrong.

Few people are actually on my trust list, but hoops and Narcizo are pretty close. ardent has a lot going for him, too. I don't know that arguing for lynching any of those guys works in your favor, certainly not with me.

I'm also a night shift person and am also here!

:)

You stink. I blame you for starting all this Werewolf nonesense. :D

Woot! Night shift rules! :D

I am thinking of running a small WW game where the primary deadlines will be in the wee mornings--just for us night shift folks and people out of the country (and anyone from the daytime who doesn't mind being up in the middle of the night). I wonder if I could get ten people to sign up? :)

As for my suspicon, I have stated before (I think) that I did not bid for a service Day 1. I know that in itself is suspicious, but to be honest I hadn't really understood that part of the rules then and didn't bother with it. I did bid for a service (and lost) on Day 2, bid and won on day 3, bid and lost for tomorrow.

Off the bat I'd put Antmeister, Barkeep and Peregrine among the ones I've got suspicious vibes off of. Autumn seems to be doing decent analysis and has come up with some good ideas while Path seems to be playing what I think is his usual game, he hasn't said a lot but what he has said has made sense to me. The way Antmeister has been pushing KWhit seems a bit hinky but then again I'm getting some strange vibes off of KWhit myself, I can't really put my finger on what's up with Barkeep but something isn't right while there was the whole business with Peregrine questioning the logic in arresting people on day one.

I do have a couple of concerns though and that's the fact that Alan and Ardent got services in the lower level. While you might expect to get lucky on the horses (arf!) the fact that the legionnaire also dropped gives me pause for thought. However that's no reason not to follow up on the above 5 first (6 if we include Pass, to be honest). Dunno if they've already said but I'd like to hear who the above people claim to have bid on.

Second I'd really like to follow up on Neon first. If Ardent can confirm him as good then I think that's a solid start. I don't believe Neon will be available to scan today, as no-one will have purchased his services.

:rolleyes:

Don't waste the scan on me. Seriously.

Hoops I agree with (standard disclaimer about him being a sneaky wolf). There's quite a bit bothering me about Ardent at the moment. I'm hoping Neon can be cleared today so that Ardent can cleared tomorrow.

I know I've been making some pretty sweeping generalisations about people I'm not trusting at the moment. I'm going to try and go through and form some sort of list about that.

Ummmm.... Okay then.

Please, please, please someone scan Neon.

The Tarqs are probably loving this exchange. :cool:

Frankly this is getting bizarre. I've never heard of anyone being so opposed to being scanned.

Hoops has always been a talkative wolf whenever I see him play.

I'm not 100% with ardent yet either, but I still lean toward him being good. I don't know that st. cronin even would have assigned any of the opening public roles to wolves anyway. So far, that has proved to be the case, with Schmidty and AlanT certainly good. We will likely discover saldana was good soon, too.

That's no guarantee on ardent (even if wolves were assigned these roles with the same odds as everyone else, the odds based on a traditional villager-to-wolf breakdown would only suggest one of the five was likely a Tarq). But it's something.

I think what concerns me the most there is that he continues to live while other lawyers dead. I suggested that as being a curious thing earlier in the game and something to watch for. Could it be he is a Tarq? Or could it be the wolves are using our own logic against us and leaving ardent alone for the very reason for us to suspect him?

Keep in mind, ardent said bullet was good without knowing Schmidty would get a confirming email. He might have played it cautiously, but I consider that a point in his favor. Ardent could have played immense havoc with things as a Tarq by saying bullet was a Tarq.

Anyway, food for thought. There are a lot of people, including ardent, I would like to see scanned.

A scan on me is a wasted scan. That's all I'm going to say. Jeez.

Well I stand by what I said then, but that was Day 1, a lot has changed. At that point we didn't know that the bad guys could even kill people. I was just against the idea of an "automatic" Day 1 lynch with no information. But that's just me, even as a moderator I've always hated that Day 1 lynch. I hate to see someone removed, someone who is almost certainly (in a blind selection) innocent.

I disagree. If a scan clears you (or anyone), it's pretty darn useful, ya know. It's a bit odd you would not want to be cleared as a good guy. Sure, a scan of a Tarq would be better (if I make the assumption you are implying about yourself), but a known good guy is almost as good as a known bad guy.

All that said, I don't agree with Narcizo's lawyer scan plan for practical purposes. The fact is that continuously living lawyers are likely to be rare. We would need to bid and win the bodyguards every night to save the same two lawyers, whichw ould always leave open our consuls, the tribune and anyone else who has proven valuable to the Republic (such as the active wealthy like Dodgerchick).

So assuming we don't go to some drastic lawyer protection program, lawyers will continue to die. That means we would have to be continuously scanning new lawyers each day. This seems rather pointless to me.

I do think ardent should be scanned because of his continuing health despite being a high profile target. But I think Neon or any other new lawyer would need to survive a day or two before we start thinking about scanning him (at least for lawyer reasons alone--certainly if other suspicions come up regarding Neon or anyone, that might necessitate a scan).

That's probably exactly what they'd like for you to think as well.

QFT.

Got me. DC has now said she's used me as her lawyer twice now. Sadly, it's news to me.

While this game has been fun 90% of the time, part of this lawyer thing coupled with a WVUFan noshow/missed arrests make the game agitating. Now if it turns out that BK is a bad guy and that was the real reason we only had two arrests...and if turns out saldana and wvu/whoever took over for him (mustang?) are as well. At that point, I'd say bravo.

Really? Wow.

QFT.

bada-bing.

:eek: :(

That was intended for the lawyers dieing thing.

Well, of course, I certainly don't want good lawyers to die. But you know there are a few people in this game who do.

We understood you the first time. Stop cluttering up the boards....


:p :D

True, and I appreciate your insight and comments through the night, CR. I know you don't fully trust me, but I do appreciate your effort to try and help us win.

Damn straight, you're the best lawyer in town and you're mine AE... MINE! ;)

Alright, I'm not entirely sure where things stand right now but isn't it an odd coincidence that the day I send whores to Ironhead there's only 1 kill? If I remember correctly we've had 2 kills every night except that one... coincidence?

I'll be completely honest, I haven't read the entire thread just bits and pieces of it but this really stands out in my head... has he been scanned and cleared yet?