Autumn, you're high on my trust list (not "hoops" high, but high), and your reads have seemed to be good, so I am inclined to follow you onto PF. I think if I was going on my own, I might lean toward DT, but that's tough--I am influenced by hoops' noting some of the decisions DT has made which would seem to lead to him being a villager. My DT feel is mroe gut than anything.

From what I can tell, PF has a good vote or two as well, but I think it was fleeting enough that he could have been doing it as a trust vote.

I don't know that I am ready to vote Lathum, but I think it's interesting to note that we seem to be having trouble pinning potential wolves down in the remainder of the village. By process of elimination, it would almost lead one to Lathum, despite his protestations. At some point (and soon, we don't have much time), we may have to consider him more carefully.

For now, though, I am comfortable trying to follow vote record and vouching to an extent.

I'm with hoops on dubb, BTW. Not sure he could eb a wolf and make the moves he did. If he did, kudos to him.

I agree, Chief. Basically I feel like process of elimination has led me to a list of suspects, and I'm sure the wolves must be there. Frankly, they're not the ones I would necessarily distrust the most, or the ones with the worst voting records. Frankly, Jackal and Abe had the worst voting records, so I'm not sure we can go too strongly by that.

Lathum has a wolf-vibe, sure, but I usually feel that way every game. I am trending towards believing him on his role and therefore his villager status but I may very well vote him in a day or two. This day however I think we have better candidates, by which I mean candidates who don't have anything to vouch for them other than perhaps voting. Frankly, I think maybe the wolves have played a game of giving themselves good voting records, as nobody left has a real bad voting record, and most of the villagers voted off have had abysmal ones.

Poli, Dubb and PF have so far not had to risk much in conversation, they're UTR I guess you could say though. I'd like to have the pressure on them and see what they can offer to sway us. I think we have at worst a 2/3 shot of hitting a wolf there.

I would not normally encourage the village to follow my hunches. I don't have a knack for that. But I"m putting myself out front here because I think I'm working with more information than the rest of the village.

Is it just me or does Poli seem to have to good a voting record?

Well, he was latched on to Telle for quite a while, so that's what bumped his numbers so high, FWIW

Based on your last paragraph - we've seen that dubb has made some votes that would have been tough for a wolf, and i'm willing to give poli the benefit of the doubt (although he could be the wolf that they decided to use to "push" Telle so that she could brutal-someone), but I'm not sure that's our highest percentage play.

Of those 3 names you mentioned then, I think that leads to PF.

I will give kudos to the wolves this game though - they've played it quite well.

this has nothing to do with the game.

someone give me a number between 1-9

7

Slow day when I'm the first reply, three minutes later.

ok, now I need a number 1-5

What is this for?

5

ok, thanks

when exactly will your ability manifest itself...that is hardly a role reveal, since i am not asking what your ability is...simply a timeframe

Danny won't allow me to say, but I think I've made enough references to point in the correct direction.

I remain extremely skeptical on Lathum's role and very much look forward to seeing what it is in the postgame if in fact he is a villager.

ok...so heres my thing today...i dont think both lathum and hoops are villagers, but i cant decide which one to go with.

if we lynch hoops, and are wrong, we lose a villager, then we lose the night kill as well and go down two for the day to however many wolves are left.

but, if we lynch lathum today, and he is telling the truth about not being able to be lynched, we only go down one (the night kill), and we have ended the lathum question....i cannot imagine a wolf role that needs to be lynched twice in the same game with a brutal and a cunning.

vote lathum

saldana raises an interesting point about lathum - and one that we probably should have resolved long ago

also, i have iron pigs tickets for tonight, so i will not be around at the deadline

anyone keeping a vote count?

iron pigs? is that a band??

i should be around after 6:30 i hope

WTF is an iron pig?

and what point is that?

VOTE LATHUM

Sal makes a good point about Lathum's role, whatever that may be. This vote is subject to change, but I think the count is pretty close as it is.

hmmm

not a fan.

I see Sals points but the wolves also know this gives us another day of not killing a wolf.

the phillies AAA franchise = the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs

Getting caught up.

who you going with?

PF, why Lathum today and not yesterday?

What made Abe more compelling yesterday than Lathum at that time?

If Autumn comes out and reveals that he KNOWS you are a villager like CR I would expect every player in the game other than you 3 to vote for one of you.

OK, here is the thing with Sals plan.

We assume we are 6-3. If we don't have a lynch today that puts us at 5-3 after the night kill that can't be blocked.

Which means we have to be 100% tomorrow or we are screwed.

NOW

if we lynch a villager today we are at 5-3 going into the night phase. They get their kill and it is 4-3 and we still have a shot at a kill tomorrow to stay alive.

so either way we have to be 100% today or tomorrow.

Now if you think I am a wolf by all means vote for me, but if you don't then I think we need to try and find a wolf today. By voting today we get 2 shots, one today and 1 tomorrow. By using Sals plan we only get 1 shot at it tomorrow.

It was between the two of them for me, and no one other than you was giving good reasons why Lathum was a better candidate. I still don't know if he is even a good candidate today, but like Sal, I am curious to see what it is that triggers his role that he has been talking about since day 2 and I think what he is could determine a lot going forward.

Are you indicating that your role has suggested that Lathum and Hoops aren't on the same side?

UNVOTE LATHUM

Good point...I am not 100% convinced you are a wolf, and I'd rather have 1 additional chance to get it right tomorrow than royally screw us over today.

It is hard to stay UTR when you have made the votes I have. If you think I am UTR so far this game then I think you are wolf spewing shit and hoping it sticks.

Votes through post #3237:

Lathum - Saldana (3219)
DT - Hoops (3168)
PF - Autumn (3183), DT (3220)

#3113 - Lathum votes Hoops 1-0
#3123 - DT votes Hoops 2-0
#3168 - Hoops votes DT 2-1 Hoops over DT
#3170 - Lathum unvotes Hoops 1-1 Hoops/DT
#3183 - Autumn votes PF 1-1-1 Hoops/DT/PF
#3187 - DT unvotes Hoops 1-1 DT/PF
#3219 - Saldana votes Lathum 1-1-1 DT/PF/Lathum
#3220 - DT votes PF 2-1-1 PF over DT/Lathum
#3227 - PF votes Lathum 2-2-1 PF/Lathum over DT
#3237 - PF unvotes Lathum 2-1-1 PF over DT/Lathum

Vote Hoops

I think I provided my reasons like night and I see no reason to change my mind with what I seen in here so far today. I just really have a bad feeling that Hoops is playing the role of puppet master here and it appears so far everyone is eating it up. I'm having a hard time so far this game finding even one time where Hoops has questioned someone and convinced them to go elsewhere and it actually ended up being the right move for the village.

I'm really torn.

Part of me feels Hoops is playing us, but the only way I see that is if they have some double kill mechanic.

I tried to make clear that I was referring to in conversation, not in voting. As I said, you have a good voting record.

If they have 3 left and it is 4/3 today they have alot of freedom tomarrow. I really see it as end game strat here on the Hoops/CR reveal. As I already said they crit one of us remaining villagers tomorrow and then I would guess they put out 3 early quick votes on someone and hope the tie mechanic is either tie=no lynch or tie=first to receive last vote first as it is in nearly every game I have ever played.

I really think it is short sighted to think there is no way Hoops and CR have thought this through and have come up with a plan if they are both wolves.

How about yesterday, when I suggested Abe was not the right choice prior to him launching his own defense?

Dubb, do you think that me + Chief + Autumn are the last wolves and we have a double kill metric in place to make that work? Work through the numbers, come up with a way that works. It is kind of a useless exercise with me not being a wolf, but I want you to draw that conclusion yourself.

Done and done

Really risky to rush to the "first to three, hope I guess the tiebreaker" when the alternative is to play it more slowly and take advantage of how confused the villagers have been just about the entire game.

I can be sure at this point that Hoops is not playing us. If you assume Hoops/CR are good, where would you vote, Lathum?

LOL Now the 3 of you are vouching for each other? You have to be kidding me.

This is really starting to smell of Hoops more and more.

Vote Hoops

I have to go with my gut here

probably PF

They certainly are not vouching for me. And I am not vouching for them the way they vouch for each other. I'm saying I'm very clear that they are not faking their roles.

me and my dad are taking sara with us

nice.

Make sure you take pictures

It's been hard in this game not to discuss our roles, hasn't it guys? I mean for all but the three of us who have never even hinted at having a role.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

He has gotta be pulling the strings behind this.

I feel very good about my vote and my suspect list right now. We should be able to nail a wolf easily tonight if we can all stay on the same page.

Agreed - I'm thinking that the battle lines are being drawn pretty clearly right now.

UNVOTE DADDYTORGO
VOTE PACKERFANATIC

since i am getting no traction, i will flop the other way..as long as one of them goes tonight.

unvote lathum
vote hoops

Saldana - do you really think that Autumn, Chief, and I are the remaining wolves?

If not, then why are both of them vouching for me?

It is very discouraging to me that the villagers actually have a COT that they can act on but are choosing not to do so. I would not argue this as fervently if there was not a 3rd party coming in behind me/Chief to suggest that we are on the up-and-up.

Assuming that this is not some really elaborate play by Autumn, with the intent to switch at the last minute, we have a COT that matches the max number of wolves in the game right now. But there are four votes on me, which means that some villagers are falling in line with where the wolves want the vote to go today.

Hoops, I'm sorry but how do we have a COT.

We have 3 people vouching for each other, none of who were seer cleared, in a game that we are pretty sure there are 3 wolves left.

dola- I should say 2 vouching for each other and 1 vouching for the other 2

VOTE PACKER FANATIC

I guess the die is cast, and we're down to seeing if we can finally convince people of the right move here.

There are likely three wolves left, and those three wolves know the allegiance of the rest of us. None of those three wolves are currently voting PF, from what I can see. Which means of the six remaining, half of them are wolves.

I think people need to think things through. There have been some assumptions made, and if those were followed one step further, people might begin to recognize the precarious situation we find ourselves in right now.

Lathum, so you believe that all three of us are wolves? I've asked this question a bunch of times and no one has come out and said that they think this is the case.

Why in the world would the wolves be in such a rush to play it this way in a 6-3 game rather than taking their time?

Lathum, do you worry about the fact that people have been setting it up as a you or me = wolf? I know I'm a villager and I think you are a wolf. Big difference between those two. How can others be so certain that one of the two of us is a wolf?

Both DT and Saldana have used this as a reason for voting for us. PF has come pretty close to saying that, but I don't think he has outright said it in the thread.

It is really frustrating not being able to talk about roles.

Poli, if you are a wolf then you are walking into a great spot.

If you are a villager then you get a chance to make either a really bad vote or ... a vote that I hope is really good but honestly I'm not 100% sure about.

As a matter of record, I can say that my assumptions about The Jackal were proven correct by last night's night kill and role reveal. Perhaps those of you interested in staying in therapy longer could trust my other assumptions based on that.

Autumn, Poli had indicated that his bulldog nature on Telle was a combination of gut and other.

You seem to have some insight into your fellow man, based on your assessments. Does the suggestion that Poli had a non-seer role that could potentially have gained an advantage in identifying a wolf early in the game worry you?

Technically, the vouches work like this (best I can tell).

Hoops - vouched for by Chief and Autumn
Chief - vouched for by Hoops and Autumn
Saldana - vouched for by Autumn

So if you accept that Autumn is a villager we actually have a list of four people in the COT. The fact that Saldana is not following Autumn's lead is a bit troubling for me, since I big-time distrust Saldana myself but I'm trying to keep faith that Autumn is a villager with good information. It is obviously easier for me to do that knowing he is correct about me.

Here is the thing.

We already had a seer, how much info can Autumn really be privy to?

No one is vouching for Autumn and a good way to gain your trust is to confirm you and CR are both villagers

Dubb, Lathum, Saldana - is Autumn just throwing Saldana in the vouch lists as an extra added bonus to create additional credibility? How are you explaining that?

Seriously, the remaining villages really need to think long and hard about this vote. And, if they are still leaving it on me (of all people) then keep thinking until you change your mind.

And if they are still not ready to change their mind when the deadline comes then the villagers probably lose this game. I have zero faith in their ability to win it tomorrow based on everything I've seen over the past couple of days.

I'm not sure about that Hoops ... I did forget about that little hint. It would mean, to me, that DT or Lath are a wolf (or that we only have two wolves). But I think it would pay off to wait to answer that question.

what little hint?

A good way to gain my trust? MY TRUST???

Why would Autumn be worried about gaining my trust if we are all wolves together? He would be worried about gaining villager trust, which certainly is not working based on the votes right now.

The only way that he is worried about getting my trust is if Chief and I are actually villagers and he is a wolf who wants to lead us to a crappy candidate today. I'm much more worried about that scenario than anything having to do with me and/or Chief.

dola that was in regard to #3269

Sorry, took too long to reply. Poli's answer about his votes on Telle suggested that maybe his role had something to do with it.

that was my point, MY POINT

someone give me a number 1-7

Re-direct:

Poli, you seem to have some insight on a wolf earlier, based on your role in voting for Telle. Does the suggestion that Autumn had a non-seer role that could potentially have "cleared" three villagers at this point in the game worry you?

I mean 1-9

So if you don't trust Autumn's vouches, then why vote for me? Test them by voting for him, Saldana, or Chief. There are three other options out there besides me to vote for. I'm vouching for one of the other three, but not for the other two.

If he is looking to gain my trust today then the most likely scenario is that Autumn + Saldana are bad guys and his large group of targets with good voting records are actually good villagers.

Notice that he asked me who I would vote for from his list. I put the vote on DT and he put the vote on PF instead.

2

thanks.

now 1-5 please

5

I'm beginning to think that the Sympathizer may be onto something ...

Having been reprimanded for my hint, I don't believe I'm allowed to answer this.

Out of the realm of talking about the role I have, I believe there is a lot of wolf play going on right now. My problem is trying to figure out who's telling the truth.

Unvote Hoops
Vote Autumn

looking back I just don't see why we should trust him.

He put early votes on wolves each day and didn't move them, something a wolf would do. Except for the day Telle gets lynched when he was on Clap.

Plus he seems to be hinting at all this information and I just don't see a role outside the seer or a wolf that could be that powerful.

I'm off to work out/run/kill myself. Assuming I don't succeed in the latter, I'll be back in an hour or so.

That's fine Lathum if you want to go there. I'm sure I've pushed Danny's limits in terms of what I should be saying about my role, and I can't think of any way to make you trust my vouches without going into that.

I think if you go back and look in thread you won't agree with yoru own assessment of my votes. I campaigned very strongly for those wolves, not only leading a charge and voting early but pushing others to consolidate their votes on wolves. If you're a wolf I'm sure you'll sit with this vote, but if you're a villager I think it's worth a look back to see if you really agree with yourself on this. I certainly have put my neck out pushing for things the last few days. That's only because I've been able to piece together more as the list of players dwindles. If you're a villager you could piece together some of what I have as well.

Go back and you'll see I vouched for Jackal as well, correctly assessing his role as an independent and was backed up by Saldana there.

Shit, my kids are screaming and I realy ahve to go. I'll try to make it back by deadline.

Well, I'll be around some between now and deadline but not a ton. I'm on kid duty alone tonight so she will more or less determine if I'm around the PC.

OK, one last exercise for people. I'm guessing that the wolves have been paying pretty close attention to what Chief and I have said for the past couple of days. I would really like for the remaining villagers to go re-read Chief Rum's posts from yesterday and today.

At that point, please revisit your voting strategy on me even if you do not believe that I am a villager. Just go grab another person that you think might be a wolf along with me.

This is the last time that I will make this request.

So even if we think you are a wolf we should vote CR or Autumn? That is one crazy ass idea. Would this have to do with you either being the The Wannabee Therapist and thus you think you can't be caught by special roles? Or would it have to do with you being the Criticizer and you want to have that ability still on your side going further?

vote count?

Not really sure but off the top of my head I think it is 3-3-1, might be 4-3-1 if I have missed a PF or Hoops vote somewhere.

doing one now

PF 4 - Autumn (3183), DT (3220), Hoops (3258), CR (3264)
Hoops 3 - Dubb (3240), PF (3256), Sal (3259)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (3288)

Yet to Vote: Poli

PF -4 Autumn (3183), DT (3220), Hoops (3258), CR (3264)
Hoops-3 Dubb ( 3240), PF ( 3256), Saldana ( 3259)
Autumn-1 Lathum (3288)


no vote: Poli

jinx

Wannabe Therapist, in theory, should not have any extra value with the seer gone.

Criticizer is a legitimate concern, I suppose.

But I've really done about all that I can today. If we didn't get a wolf yesterday and don't get one today I have no reason to think that we are going to get one tomorrow either.

Dubb, if you have anything at all that you want to ask me between now and deadline I would suggest doing it in the next ten minutes.