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-   -   The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012 (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=69042)

sterlingice 01-18-2012 07:51 PM

You force a decision long before the environmental impact report is finished and this is what you're going to get.

SI

Edward64 01-21-2012 08:00 PM

Egypt will be an interesting case study. Let's hope some modernity wins out.

My Way News - Egypt's Islamists win 75 percent of parliament
Quote:

CAIRO (AP) - Final results on Saturday showed that Islamist parties won nearly three-quarters of the seats in parliament in Egypt's first elections since the ouster of authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak, according to election officials and political groups.

The Islamist domination of Egypt's parliament has worried liberals and even some conservatives about the religious tone of the new legislature, which will be tasked with forming a committee to write a new constitution. It remains unclear whether the constitution will be written while the generals who took power after Mubarak's fall are still in charge, or rather after presidential elections this summer.

In the vote for the lower house of parliament, a coalition led by the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood won 47 percent, or 235 seats in the 498-seat parliament. The ultraconservative Al-Nour Party was second with 25 percent, or 125 seats.

The Salafi Al-Nour, which was initially the biggest surprise of the vote, wants to impose strict Islamic law in Egypt, while the more moderate Brotherhood, the country's best-known and organized party, has said publicly that it does not seek to force its views about an appropriate Islamic lifestyle on Egyptians.

The two parties are unlikely to join forces because of ideological differences, but both have a long history of charity work in Egypt's vast poverty-stricken neighborhoods and villages, giving them a degree of legitimacy and popularity across the country in areas where newer liberal parties have yet to get a foothold.


sterlingice 01-21-2012 08:06 PM

I love the rhetoric from the third paragraph where I couldn't figure out which party was more "Islamist" between one being described as fundamentalist and the other as ultraconservative.

SI

Edward64 01-31-2012 08:17 PM

Intuitively I understood this but had no idea the true deficit $. I'm sure there can be quibbles but at least a method to quantifying it overall.

Ezra Klein: Doing the math on Obama's deficits - The Washington Post
Quote:

How much has Obama added to the debt, anyway?

There are two answers: More than $4 trillion, or about $983 billion. The first answer is simple and wrong. The second answer is more complicated, but a lot closer to being right.

When Obama took office, the national debt was about $10.5 trillion. Today, it’s about $15.2 trillion. Simple subtraction gets you the answer preferred by most of Obama’s opponents: $4.7 trillion.

But ask yourself: Which of Obama’s policies added $4.7 trillion to the debt? The stimulus? That was less than $800 billion. TARP? That passed under George W. Bush, and most of it has been repaid.

There is a way to tally the effects Obama has had on the deficit. Look at every piece of legislation he has signed into law. Every time Congress passes a bill, either the Congressional Budget Office or the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the effect it will have on the budget over the next 10 years. And then they continue to estimate changes to those bills. If you know how to read their numbers, you can come up with an estimate that zeroes in on the laws Obama has had a hand in.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities was kind enough to help me come up with a comprehensive estimate of Obama’s effect on the deficit. As they explained to me, it’s harder than it sounds.

Obama, for instance, is clearly responsible for the stimulus. The health-care law, too.

But when Obama entered office, the Bush tax cuts were already in place and two wars were ongoing. Is it fair to blame Obama for war costs four months after he was inaugurated, or tax collections 10 days after he took office?

So the center built a baseline that includes everything that predated Obama, and everything we knew about the path of the economy and the actual trajectory of spending through August 2011. Deviations from the baseline represent decisions made by the Obama administration. Then, we measured the projected cost of Obama’s policies.


Quote:

In total, the policies Obama has signed into law can be expected to add almost a trillion dollars to deficits. But behind that total are policies that point in very different directions. The stimulus, for instance, cost more than $800 billion. So did the 2010 tax deal, which included more than $600 billion to extend the Bush tax cuts for two years, and hundreds of billions more in unemployment insurance and the payroll tax cut. Obama’s first budget increased domestic discretionary spending by quite a bit, but more recent legislation has cut it substantially. On the other hand, the Budget Control Act — the legislation that resolved August’s debt-ceiling standoff — saves more than $1 trillion. And the health-care reform law saves more than $100 billion.

For comparison’s sake, using the same method, beginning in 2001 and ending in 2009, George W. Bush added more than $5 trillion to the deficit.

JediKooter 02-01-2012 12:56 PM

Whoopsie:

Alabama immigration crackdown costs state up to $11 bln: study - Yahoo! News

I'm sure Alabama is just happy that there's less, darker than white people, in the state now. So it's probably a wash to them.

lungs 02-01-2012 02:05 PM

Utah has a pretty successful model on how states can handle this since the Federal government has shown no interest in doing anything:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/utah-...8#.TymaibES01I

molson 02-01-2012 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 2603252)
Utah has a pretty successful model on how states can handle this since the Federal government has shown no interest in doing anything:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/utah-...8#.TymaibES01I


I wonder though, if someone opposes states enforcing their own anti-immigration laws on constitutional grounds, how do they distinguish that from states granting some type of legal immigration status?

Coffee Warlord 02-01-2012 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 2602851)
Intuitively I understood this but had no idea the true deficit $. I'm sure there can be quibbles but at least a method to quantifying it overall.

Ezra Klein: Doing the math on Obama's deficits - The Washington Post


One could easily go the other way and nail Obama for failing to alter the policies he inherited and allowing the debt to continue to spiral out of control.

lungs 02-01-2012 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 2603258)
I wonder though, if someone opposes states enforcing their own anti-immigration laws on constitutional grounds, how do they distinguish that from states granting some type of legal immigration status?


Easy, by not being consistent.

I'd happily use constitutional means to get something like Alabama's law thrown out if it were in place in Wisconsin. But if we adopted Utah's laws, I'd fight against it getting thrown out for constitutional reasons. Totally inconsistent, but I'm trying to get something accomplished here. The means of accomplishing it are fairly irrelevant. It's been that way in politics forever.

JPhillips 02-01-2012 02:31 PM

If you look at deportations and inflow of illegal immigrants it certainly doesn't look like the federal government is doing nothing.

molson 02-01-2012 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 2603269)
Easy, by not being consistent.

I'd happily use constitutional means to get something like Alabama's law thrown out if it were in place in Wisconsin. But if we adopted Utah's laws, I'd fight against it getting thrown out for constitutional reasons. Totally inconsistent, but I'm trying to get something accomplished here. The means of accomplishing it are fairly irrelevant. It's been that way in politics forever.


Ya, that's refreshingly candid and true. The constitution doesn't really have meaning, it's just a tool to get your preferred policy enacted, or your opposed policy stopped. Still, in the legal fight, people will have to come up with some made-up distinction or justification (so will appellate judges). This could be a tricky one.

lungs 02-01-2012 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 2603273)
If you look at deportations and inflow of illegal immigrants it certainly doesn't look like the federal government is doing nothing.


This is true, but in terms of comprehensive reform or somesuch thing, it's been talked about for ages and nothing has gotten done. I think W had the best opportunity to do something reasonable. No way the right let's Obama do anything that resembles amnesty.

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 2603280)
Ya, that's refreshingly candid and true. The constitution doesn't really have meaning, it's just a tool to get your preferred policy enacted, or your opposed policy stopped. Still, in the legal fight, people will have to come up with some made-up distinction or justification (so will appellate judges). This could be a tricky one.


That's what lawyers are for :)

I'm sure they could frame separate arguments that are completely inconsistent and as long as they aren't heard in the same courtroom by the same judge, it could probably work both ways, no?

JonInMiddleGA 02-01-2012 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lungs (Post 2603269)
Totally inconsistent, but I'm trying to get something accomplished here. The means of accomplishing it are fairly irrelevant. It's been that way in politics forever.


Maybe not quite "forever" but certainly for a pretty long time.

This isn't much different with what I've said at times in the past, at this point I see the Constitution as little more than a means to an end. Any meaning it had beyond that was lost long ago afaic.

larrymcg421 02-01-2012 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 2603258)
I wonder though, if someone opposes states enforcing their own anti-immigration laws on constitutional grounds, how do they distinguish that from states granting some type of legal immigration status?


Well if the only constitutional reason they oppose state anti-immigration laws was that it usurps federal authority, thus violating the Supremacy Clause, then they obviously can't make a reasonable distinction there. But that is hardly the only reason people oppose the laws in Arizona and Alabama.

ISiddiqui 02-01-2012 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 2603258)
I wonder though, if someone opposes states enforcing their own anti-immigration laws on constitutional grounds, how do they distinguish that from states granting some type of legal immigration status?


As the article said, Utah is attempting to get a federal waiver. If they don't get it, then, as much as I think its a good idea, the law should be struck down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 2603280)
The constitution doesn't really have meaning, it's just a tool to get your preferred policy enacted, or your opposed policy stopped.


Well yeah. The Constitution is simply the highest (legal, as opposed to moral or whatnot) law in the land. It doesn't get any divine favor simply for being that ;). It is like all laws are, a means to an end. The question is what end do people have in mind.

flounder 02-01-2012 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2603358)
Well yeah. The Constitution is simply the highest (legal, as opposed to moral or whatnot) law in the land. It doesn't get any divine favor simply for being that ;). It is like all laws are, a means to an end. The question is what end do people have in mind.


I disagree. To me, the point of the Constitution is to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority. Without the Constitution, what would stop a state from deciding, for example, Hispanics should not be allowed to vote? We're not too far removed from that happening with African Americans in the south. The only thing stopping it from happening is the knowledge that it would never pass Constitutional muster.

If the Constitution is just another set of laws, there is not a right that the government can't take away from us. It seems odd that people who (correctly) note that our government serves the needs of corporations and the military to a much greater extent than the needs of the people are the most eager to throw away the few restrictions that remain on its power over us.

larrymcg421 02-03-2012 11:04 AM

Unemployment drops another .2% to 8.3%, the same number as Obama's first full month in office. So much for that holiday hiring spin.

albionmoonlight 02-03-2012 11:18 AM

Politics notwithstanding, that's really good news. Things could change for the worst overnight (i.e. Europe implodes), but, for now, I'll take a dose of good news.

RainMaker 02-03-2012 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 2603974)
Politics notwithstanding, that's really good news. Things could change for the worst overnight (i.e. Europe implodes), but, for now, I'll take a dose of good news.

Yeah, things are starting to look up a bit. Still a ways to go but nice to see some progress.

sterlingice 02-03-2012 12:21 PM

Yeah- it's going to take getting a lot more jobs to pull back those who have left the workplace and decrease wage stagnation to really make big changes

SI

Mizzou B-ball fan 02-03-2012 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 2603997)
Yeah- it's going to take getting a lot more jobs to pull back those who have left the workplace and decrease wage stagnation to really make big changes

SI


Yeah, that's the crazy part about the unemployment numbers. I think true unemployment numbers were hovering around the 16% range. If those people get encouraged by dropping unemployment rates, they could actually reenter the job market and spike the number back up to 8.5-9%. That's why you always have to be reserved about small changes such as this.

sterlingice 02-03-2012 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 2604000)
Yeah, that's the crazy part about the unemployment numbers. I think true unemployment numbers were hovering around the 16% range. If those people get encouraged by dropping unemployment rates, they could actually reenter the job market and spike the number back up to 8.5-9%. That's why you always have to be reserved about small changes such as this.


To be fair, the U-6 number is down quite a bit (unemployed + underemployed). It's at 15.1 now and Obama's first numbers (Feb 09) were 15.1. That ramp up in 2008 is just crazy: 9.2 up to 15.1. It peaked at 17.2 but really, very little has happened under Obama- positive or negative- for the employment numbers. The hole was really deep, it got a little deeper, and now we're starting to dig back out.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
20029.59.59.49.79.59.59.69.69.69.69.79.8
200310.010.210.010.210.110.310.310.110.410.210.09.8
20049.99.710.09.69.69.59.59.49.49.79.49.2
20059.39.39.18.98.99.08.88.99.08.78.78.6
20068.48.48.28.18.28.48.58.48.08.28.17.9
20078.48.28.08.28.28.38.48.48.48.48.48.8
20089.29.09.19.29.710.110.510.811.111.812.713.5
200914.215.115.715.816.416.516.516.716.817.217.117.1
201016.716.916.917.016.616.516.516.616.916.816.916.6
201116.115.915.715.915.816.216.116.216.416.015.615.2
201215.1

SI

DaddyTorgo 02-03-2012 01:59 PM

Europe will go fucky-fuck in March. Greek default will happen. I met with someone yesterday who has connections at the very high-level (we're talking EU heads-of-state), and that was the conclusion he's drawn/they're prepping for.

Only question is to what extent have the markets priced it in, and to what extent will they react anyways. And will there be an effective ECB/EFSF/EU firewall to protect Italy/Spain.

RainMaker 02-03-2012 02:19 PM

Yeah, none of the numbers are good. Underemployment is likely a big problem too. But any improvement is still improvement in the big picture. At least it's not getting worse.

SteveMax58 02-03-2012 07:31 PM

My work is so busy right now that we cannot hire people quickly enough (and I wish we could...its killing me). Niche jobs but still not a bad thing.

I imagine the same to be true with some of the vendors we buy things from as we are seeing really big delays in getting product so clearly they don't have the manpower to produce enough for the market.

One thought about the depressed wages thing I had (anecdotally). Since late 2008 we've lost a LOT of management overhead. Directors, VPs, and even Presidents & a CIO. Only 1 of them have been replaced in actual title and the rest have just had job duties repurposed. That would (in my company's case) account for quite a bit of wage depression I imagine but overall the company is close to flat on employee count so I dont know if thats a good thing or not but we definitely have more "doers" (and are hiring more) than we have management than we did in the past.

JPhillips 02-03-2012 09:43 PM

Even if there is some progressivity in the federal tax code it's largely offset by the states.


Raiders Army 02-04-2012 06:06 AM

I'd like to see the ratio of the bottom 1% to the top 1%, or even the bottom 20% to the top 20%.

Edward64 02-04-2012 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMax58 (Post 2604116)
My work is so busy right now that we cannot hire people quickly enough (and I wish we could...its killing me). Niche jobs but still not a bad thing.

Don't know about other areas but same for ERP consulting. I like to think this is a leading indicator (but could be due to refresh cycles) ... can't hire enough.

Buccaneer 02-11-2012 09:23 PM

.
Quote:

WAYNE LAUGESEN
FOR THE EDITORIAL BOARD
President Barack Obama’s attack on religious liberty resulted in a reversal and a statement that one typically hears only from free market economic realists. Obama explained that religious charity may do more than government programs to benefit society:

“My first job in Chicago was working with Catholic parishes in poor neighborhoods, and my salary was funded by a grant from an arm of the Catholic Church. And I saw that local churches often did more good for a community than a government program ever could...”

We hope Obama experienced a change of heart in the midst of intense conflict, but we also know better. It’s an election year, and he was in a political quagmire.

But in his effort to cool things down, he spoke truth. Religious charities do far more than governments to aid and comfort the poor, all over the world. In addition to serving as the foundational social safety network, they advance society with hospitals and great institutions of learning.



SirFozzie 02-11-2012 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buccaneer (Post 2607929)
.


First six words reduced the rest of the statement to "sensationalistic twaddle"

JPhillips 02-12-2012 07:01 AM

Why does it have to be government or charities? There are programs better run by charities ad there are programs better run by government.

Edward64 02-12-2012 08:07 AM

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend," per old Arab proverb.

Leader Of Al Qaeda Calls On Muslims To Help Syrian Rebels | Fox News
Quote:

BAGHDAD – The head of Al Qaeda is calling on Muslims across the Arab world and beyond to support rebels in Syria who are seeking to overthrow President Bashar Assad, and says they cannot depend on the West for help.

In a new videotaped statement, Ayman al-Zawahri calls on Muslims in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to join the uprising against Assad's "pernicious, cancerous regime."

In the video titled "Onwards, Lions of Syria," Zawahiri criticized the Syrian regime for crimes against its citizens, and praised those rising up against the government

I actually feel sorry for Assad. As ME strongmen goes, he seemed relatively pragmatic and the only time he bumps against us is Lebanon (I think). Any government faced with civil war would ultimately take up arms against the population advocating for it.

His main problem was not wanting to compromise (enough) before it escalated to this point. Its pretty serious crap when Turkey and large number of ME Muslim countries turn against you.

Hope he goes. It'll further isolate Iran and Russia/China will have lost a degree of influence.

larrymcg421 02-17-2012 05:24 PM

And Chris Christie decides to be the "before" picture in future civil rights textbooks.

larrymcg421 02-17-2012 05:38 PM

dola

Chris Christie may be miscalculating how the gay marriage issue will have developed by 2016. It would be sweet justice if his veto dooms his future presidential hopes.

Crapshoot 02-17-2012 05:44 PM

I have no doubt that by 2020, the GOP candidate will be running on a plank that will include married gay voters as part of their social outreach platform. What we're seeing now is the death throngs of bigotry as they desperately lash about trying to fight the inevitable.

JonInMiddleGA 02-17-2012 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 2610385)
And Chris Christie decides to be the "before" picture in future civil rights textbooks.


Given the steady decline in our civilization you could be right.

He'll still be just as correct then as he was today.

sabotai 02-17-2012 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 2610389)
dola

Chris Christie may be miscalculating how the gay marriage issue will have developed by 2016. It would be sweet justice if his veto dooms his future presidential hopes.


And the Democrats knew this was going to happen and failed to push this through when they held a majority in the state senate and had a Democrat as governor a few years ago.

I wonder how many Democrats in the state senate voted yes purely because they knew Christie would veto but would have voted no otherwise.

Blackadar 02-17-2012 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA (Post 2610395)
Given the steady decline in our civilization you could be right.

He'll still be just as correct then as he was today.


In other words, not at all.

SirFozzie 02-17-2012 10:43 PM

Big Banks Accused of Manipulating Key Interest Rates | Business | TIME.com

and heeeeeeeeeerrre comes the next banking scandal...

ISiddiqui 02-17-2012 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 2610389)
dola

Chris Christie may be miscalculating how the gay marriage issue will have developed by 2016. It would be sweet justice if his veto dooms his future presidential hopes.


However, he's playing his cards well for someone who vetoed a marriage equality bill, by saying that he thinks this is something for the voters to decide on the ballot rather than just the representatives. So he can, plausibly, say he wasn't against marriage equality, just the manner in which it was attempted.

CraigSca 02-17-2012 11:21 PM

But wait, isn't Obama not in favor of gay marriage?

ISiddiqui 02-17-2012 11:24 PM

Exactly. But some liberals have convinced themselves that he's just faking for political reasons (wouldn't that be worse though?)

Crapshoot 02-17-2012 11:27 PM

Of course Obama is lying on the issue - gay marriage opinion is evolving over time, and he's done more for gay rights than any president to date.

But IMO, I look forward to the time when Craig or JIMGA or any of the others who hold on so dearly to the past have a gay kid, or a gay niece or nephew, or grandkid, and see if they can explain to them in good conscience why they ought to be second class citizens.

ISiddiqui 02-17-2012 11:29 PM

I actually think that those who think Obama is lying on the issue are deluding themselves (just as most liberals thought Obama would be the great lefty hope instead of a centrist).

larrymcg421 02-17-2012 11:47 PM

Whether he's faking it or not isn't important. He absolutely will not look as good in historical context as if he'd supported it sooner, but the reason liberals will and have given him a pass is (as Crapshoot noted) that he's done more for gay rights than any other President. Obama will be known as the President that ended DADT, and before his term is up maybe DOMA as well. If you can't see how that will differ him from Christie in the historical context, then I don't know what to say.

larrymcg421 02-17-2012 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2610469)
However, he's playing his cards well for someone who vetoed a marriage equality bill, by saying that he thinks this is something for the voters to decide on the ballot rather than just the representatives. So he can, plausibly, say he wasn't against marriage equality, just the manner in which it was attempted.


Making people vote for their civil rights is a bunch of bullshit and I'm confident it will be correctly seen as such by 2016.

Lathum 02-17-2012 11:50 PM

Obama flew over my office today in a helicopter. I got nothing.

SackAttack 02-18-2012 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2610469)
However, he's playing his cards well for someone who vetoed a marriage equality bill, by saying that he thinks this is something for the voters to decide on the ballot rather than just the representatives. So he can, plausibly, say he wasn't against marriage equality, just the manner in which it was attempted.


And he can say that until he's blue in the face, it's still a bullshit argument.

Saying that "it ought to be decided by the voters" is to say that Congress giving women and non-whites the vote via the 14th and 19th Amendments was illegitimate because white males should have made that decision instead.

Saying "I'm not against marriage equality, I just think the voters should have made the decision" is going to be wishy-washy as all hell with the Republican base, and is not going to be the winner he thinks it'd be among independent voters, either.

It's basically a no-win play, other than to shore up his right to prevent a primary opponent if he chooses to run for re-election as Governor of NJ.

Crapshoot 02-18-2012 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 2610477)
I actually think that those who think Obama is lying on the issue are deluding themselves (just as most liberals thought Obama would be the great lefty hope instead of a centrist).


You think so? Gay marriage support is at over 50% in the latest Gallup poll. Do you truly believe that Obama doesn't support gay marriage? Hell, I'd expect him to note it officially right after the 2014 mid-term elections (to blow back any potential politiical implications).

ISiddiqui 02-18-2012 01:00 AM

Yeah, I truly believe that Obama doesn't support gay marriage. If he did, he'd be backing it right now. A lot of liberals have assigned a lot to Obama that he never actually backed. I think marriage equality is one of those things.


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