OK, day 1 and 2 voting in an easy to find place

Your explanation-less vote on me was post 1285. I went as far back as 1151 and the closest I got to an explanation as to why you didn't vote for EF or PB was your post stating that you didn't think either "warn ti". Not a whole lot of in-depth analysis there.

And it might also be worth noting that your Day 1 vote wasn't in any of the major races either. Although I didn't search through to see if you were on much after your vote was placed.

From this list people who look good

CR- late day 1 vote on EF
Dubb-Late vote day 1 on EF, also went EF day 2
PF, Pass, Poli- Late day 2 votes on EF

People who look bad-

PB- late vote on NTN day 1, forced to vote EF day 2
BK- Day 1 voted for a villager and day 2 steered clear by voting Telle

People who have steered clear

-Saldana- Voted Dubb day 1 and Hoops day2
-Clap- Voted Telle day 1 and Telle day 2

Vote PB

not a fan of his voting record and I think we learn alot from this.

I don't get the Telle votes. I understand she defend someone day 1, but so far has voted PB twice and we don't know PB's alligence. I think there are better candidates.

I will likely vote Telle today (as I think I've stubbornly proved the previous two days) BUT a run away doesn't help us and I'm willing to give strong consideration to anyone else on my distrust list and mild consideration to anyone on my needs looked at list (and I seem to be one of the few that has never voted for Saldana in any game).

I'm not a fan of Claps 2 votes for Telle. He has steered clear of any controversy by doing this and can use the defense that he strongly thinks Telle is a wolf.

I'm not sure if you can answer this, but....does your reasoning for voting PB today have anything to do with your reasoning for voting for him yesterday?

Lathum, you said candidates plural. Who else do you consider?

Actually, clap voted for PackerFanatic on Day 1, post 335.

No, I am purely voting him today based on his poor voting record

Entirely incorrect, as I voted EF first on Day 1 and never moved from him. I was around, to some extent, during the last hour that day and would have had the option of moving to help him.

Going from memory on voting records, Chief Rum also voted EF on Day 1 and his was a later vote than mine.

I do not recall Lathum's votes from Day 1, but I know two of the three you list are incorrect.

my bad, either way, 2 meaningless votes looks bad to me

I voted EF as well, I believe I was the 3rd and somebody unvoted him

Oops, looks like others have already responded to this.

I was hoping to take a look at the folks to never vote for EF this game. I don't think it is a perfect metric by any means, but it is not a terrible starting point for today. After that, taking a look at those who voted late, when EF was in jeopardy, and went in other directions. I put some of that thought into my vote analysis last night but I never pulled this out separately. I'll try to do it at some point, but my access is definitely going to be limited while visiting this client.

Also- Day 1 PB had an early vote on Ef and unvoted him, then day 2 voted hoops, then unvoted hoops to vote EF when he had to, then flipped to Telle, then he had to go back to EF.

It seems so obvious he was trying to get a run on someone else.

All this is taken from hoops' lists.

I ended up on Telle somewhat reluctantly yesterday. I can do so a little more excitedly today.

Vote Telle

The flip to Telle was almost immediately after I, uh, fake-voted for her, too. I was thinking that as well.

I'll say this - our wolves went 2nd-level by silencing one of their own...why do we then think they'd drop back down to first level at the next opportunity and night kill alan if telle was his top suspect?

it doesn't add up that easily to me. wayyy too cut and dried.

That is correct, you were 3rd (putting EF at 3 votes before anyone else) and Dubb pretty quickly followed putting EF at a 4-2 lead on the pack. I'm guessing that is about the time that the wolves started sweating on that day and I would be very interested in seeing if there were unvotes on him from that point on.

I was first and stayed there.
You were third, didn't move after that point.
Dubb was fourth, didn't move after that point.
I'm pretty sure Chief was fifth, didn't move after that point, and his vote came fairly late in the day.

OK, would have to actually have the vote screen up to recall the rest. But if the person who was 2nd left their vote there all day (and there weren't late on/off votes) then we're probably looking for people who were protecting EF than people who moved on/off.

Not knowing PB's loyalties here makes this a little harder, but I'm hoping that the seer has taken time to scan him. If not, please do it soon! For now, I'm hoping that he is good and will likely be making my assumptions based on this point at least for today.

100% accurate. As I have stated several times, I've been trying to get over voting for a person that I view as a nemesis (this goes back two or three games when I voted hoops day 1 as a good guy and he turned out to be good too as a ton of people jumped on later). EF and Hoops are probably those two people so I tried to avoid them day 1 and then, honestly, I thought that between EF and ntn, ntn was the bad one because the only thing I had a read on was what I perceived as a save play by Telle. So on day 1, that is more than enough for me to pick one over the other. And if you look at my day 2, I either obviously believe that EF is good or I'm a pretty stupid wolf.

Because they thought there were getting the seer. At least that is how I read it. And I was hoping that the BG would read it that way too, but clearly he did not.

So before this vote (on Day 1), we've got ntn with 5, PB with 3, and EF with 3. If EF and Telle are wolves, is the best move here really to go balls out defending ntn?

The second EF vote on Day 1 was from PurdueBrad. Who then moved to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.

Vote Count, as of 1573

Telle 3- Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566)
PB 2- Pass (1548), Lathum (1554)

so looking back through the day 1 votes I see no was PB sn't a wolf,

It is so obvious he and EF were trying to work a way to vote each other for trust then had an O SHIT moment and once PB saw there was a run on NTN that was his chance to hope on and save EF.

I really think they fucked it up, I see no way I move my vote from PB today.

Here's a Day 1 vote by PB, which obviously changed as the day went on. At this point, it's EF and ntn have 4 each, and PB has 3. How is it partially self-defense to make it take it from 4/4/3 to 3/5/3? If anything, that makes PB a more viable candidate, IMO, since he's tied for 2nd. I realize that it moves him from one off the lead to two off the lead, but it also opened himself up to a three-horse race in a way, whereas with a 4/4/3 vote count, there was a good chance we'd have consolidated around just EF and ntn.

So Pass, you thought we were villager/villager just before deadline. Then, EF turns up bad so that now means to you that we're wolf/wolf?

Welcome to a spot very high on my distrust list. This reads like spin to now get me off.

See above for reason.

vote Passacaglia

so you mean to tell me late in Day 1, with no knowledge of roles, you decide to switch from EF late and put the nail in NTN's coffin. This is the time you decide to let go of old nemesis'?

Not buying it.

Lathum, FWIW I think that we learn about PB if he is not targeted by a seer over the next couple of days.

His voting record sucks, I'm not disputing that at all. I've actually pointed it out a couple of times. But since we still have a seer alive I'm of the opinion that they will have to scan him at some point to help understand the earlier votes when PB's votes were so consistently bad.

Give him a day or two (we can afford it in a large game, I think) or until our seer croaks, and we can turn back to him.

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

No, I tried very hard to do it all damn day.

And I had a reason, which I've spelled out numerous fucking times (are you dense on purpose here?), to why ntn over EF and frankly, if I had to do it again on day 1, I STILL would've done it because I HAD MORE REASON. Christ all fucking mighty.

You guys might as well vote me 'cause I'm probably going to be an ass the rest of the way at this point anytime somebody throws any suspicion my way after what I've explained and argued the last two days.

Hoops- I am going to vote for who I think is most likely to be a wolf. He has already stated he doesn't have an important role if we do lynch him.

I would rather that then key on the wrong person and lynch a more valuable role or force a reveal.

I agree PB's voting record is bad. He makes a good candidate, since we'd learn a lot from finding out his allegiance one way or the other. I'm leaning toward good, as I said last night, since that analysis led me to EF.

And I think that reason is you knew EF was a wolf.

Based on your voting record you have no right to be this upset, and you are to smart a player to not know that. This all seems a bit to contrived for me.

Well I said that before all this other analysis. I'll look at what you posted and the voting record some more, Lathum.

I'm going to be out for a good deal of the day so I want to get a solid vote down in case I don't catch up for deadline.

Heh, it reads to me like I don't know who the wolves are, and I'm trying to figure it out as we go. First of all, it's just a suspicion that we were wolf/wolf, I'm not sure of it or anything. However, it just doesn't like like any more effort was made to save EF than was made to save you, which to me means either villager/villager or wolf/wolf. If we were wolf/villager, who in your opinion was trying to save EF and get you voted out instead?

I understand that, hoops -- but what do you make of the fact that he defied self-preservation to switch to Telle late on Day 2? Not to mention that I think he slightly defied self-preservation in the middle of Day 1, as I posted earlier? It's one thing to excuse his votes because he needed to self-preserve, but this (so far, to me) seems worse, that he voted to save EF, even acting against self-preservation.

seer can't reveal, so we'll have no way of knowing if they've scanned PB or not

There's almost 1600 posts in this thread - I think it's pretty uncool to call people dense because they don't remember all of your posts. I know that I don't remember why you voted ntn at the end of Day 1 (though I'm going back through Day 1 now, so I'll probably see it). Can you just explain it again instead of being insulting?

I believe the seer *can* reveal -- only roles that aren't mentioned in the rules can't reveal.

I'm not sure thats true.

I think if you have a listed role you can reveal, just not a hidden one.

You want him to reveal to defend me? Christ, just vote me out.

I was just correcting DT on the rules. You need to lighten up.

You know what, no. Vote me.

I would, but I'm afraid that I would forget to unvote again, then my vote would accidentally be left on that PurdueBrad guy instead! :p

I've been trying to do that!

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

On the one hand I hate to waste a possible seer scan if they've already scanned PB. On the other, a lynch tonight would be a quick and dirty way to shed a lot of light on our voting records. PB has no important role if he's a villager, and having avoided one night kill and lynching one wolf we're not doing too bad. I'm not against voting PB and giving ourselves essentially a seer scan at the cost of one villager. That would allow the seer to remain unrevealed for a while longer.

However, I have to wonder, if PB was a wolf, and EF, why the Criticize on EF? Particularly since I have to assume in this scenario that PB is the more important wolf role. I can't quite get past that point.

Thinking outloud, but that last point makes me think I'll stick with my vote on Telle. Hopefully I'll get a chance to reconsider before deadline.