Stubhub used to heavily promote it's "FanProtect Guarantee", which promised refunds on purchases if the event was cancelled or valid tickets weren't delivered. They've decided now that they can't do that anymore. So if you bought your tickets when that guarantee was in effect, you only get a Stubhub credit, which of course, isn't a particularly enticing thing right now.

I know Stubhub is just kind fucked now (and they just were acquired by a new buyer in February, oops!), but this is a lot of money to hold hostage.

The NBA, NHL, and MLB postponing rather than cancelling games adds to the complications. I have some NHL tickets I bought that I know I'll never see a penny from Stubhub for. Not the end of the world, it is what it is. I'm trying to decide if a chargeback is appropriate, and what the right timing for that would be. I understand we're all in this together, and I'm OK with taking my fair share of financial loss as a result of a global pandemic, but, letting me eat the entire $400 doesn't seem right either. And this is kind of what credit card warranties/consumer protection are for. (particularly when I bought the tickets under a promise of a refund if the event was cancelled). But I guess it's prudent to wait for the NHL to cancel the season, or until the chargeback time limit is counting down.

What this is going to do to small businesses is sad. Especially retail stores that are required to close. The CARES Act has done jack shit so far and the SBA doesn't have the resources to handle this. I'm sure Boeing will get their bailout though without a problem.

https://gen.medium.com/what-its-like...l-9547de64f5e5

I have seen that stores in certain states are doing this and my thought is how about a way to create mass panic and hysteria. Plus how is the line waiting to get in not the worst possible way to contain the spread? Oh yeah people are going to see the line and just go home not go into the store and over buy right?

Not really, that's something the WHO tried to make us all aware of back in February, when still only China was hit hard.

Fauci was on a MSNBC snippet (not sure when the interview/speech was) and said our trajectory is the same as Italy's "after correcting for population".

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

They also showed Pence speaking to his in his Pence way. Fauci was much more plain spoken and direct.

I saw Pence had said yesterday "We're on the Italy trajectory"

Still no Stay at Home order in Missouri.

Governor said tomorrow he would have ne information on what the next step is.

Said the state is so diverse it is hard to give a blanket order. Because what is an essential business in an urban area is different than a rural area.

Guess he has never been to Florida or New York or any other state with a big metro area.

When he lies he starts stammering a little and his voice gets a little more slurry.

Anyone watching videos of Spring Break saw that we were on the Italy trajectory . . . :-(

Wait a week or two. The projections are staggering. And if anything, our death counts have been coming in above the projections.

I still don't think we are. Fauci is probably just trying not to get bogged down in details and emphasizing the seriousness.

On March 19, Italy reached the point of having a confirmed case per 20,000 people. At that point their death rate - and again we know they have people dying at home without being counted in it so it was really higher - was 56.3 per million population. The USA reached that same level of confirmed cases on March 30-31, and even a few days later our death rate is not even a third of what Italy's was then.

Differences in testing and all that but we know Italy got behind on testing early due to the hospitals being overwhelmed etc. It's still getting worse here, it's going to continue to get worse, but we're not Italy.

On the other hand, unpleasant as it is, NYC and other areas need to stop pretending the issue of rationing care will somehow go away or that we're magically going to not run out of ventilators anywhere and issue guidelines. From what I've read, the state doesn't want to go anywhere near it, hospitals are waiting on guidance from the state, and meanwhile doctors and ER staff are asking for direction because they need to prepared and communicate this stuff. Feels to me like the latest Ostrich Brigade moment with nobody stepping up to say what has to be said.

And also just noticed … France reporting 1355 deaths so far today. Population-adjusted, that's more today than the entire count in the US outbreak.

:(

NBA, or NHL are not coming back. They are going stick a fork in the seasons and leave them for dead. It is just not worth it at this point. MLB is iffy and sounds like even the NFL might eventually cancel if as expected the virus does not disappear by fall and instead comes back strong in October.

They added a provisional count of deaths so far in retirement/care facilities that never were hospitalised and added them to todays total, 884 extra.
Up until now they only reported deaths in hospitals and that number for today was similar to yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21K31I

And the Captain is being relieved from duty for releasing the letter to the media.

He's a hero and should be a lesson to others in the Navy.

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P

— POLITICO (@politico) April 2, 2020

“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p

— Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) April 2, 2020

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. I knew they weren't counting the other deaths previously, but not that they were going to add them in a lump sum.

It's certainly devastating for anyone in this situation and I don't want to minimize that in any way... but I wonder if we're going to see an almost unprecedented amount of disruption and new small businesses spring up after this due to the sheer amount of opportunity out there.

That seems just as likely to me as big corporations being the only thing left to fill the gap to play in all of these spaces. There will certainly be less competition in some of the areas big companies are the leaders in today.

I was out shopping yesterday for my extended “family”. I went to Costco first and got there right before the senior citizens hour was up. There was that line outside. We waited probably ten minutes before they let us in. Within 100 feet of of the door, there were two employees standing in front of 8 pallets of toilet paper. Each package contained 30 rolls and you could get one. Just about everything I was looking for was available and most things had options to choose from. Only posted limit I saw was for poultry. Of course there was no hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes etc. To everyone’s credit, most people were not being ridiculous when it came to quantities of most items. Most people had what I would consider normal amount of those items that have been critically short. I went to Winn Dixie next and it was about the same.

From what I hear about the local Publix, they are struggling to keep up. It is not surprising given it is the only food store within ten minutes of about 8-10 subdivisions.

I made myself a pasta sauce today from a base i bought when I was in Italy last year, and had the bizarre thought I was being extravagant using tinned tomatoes and planning to use pasta for 6-8 days over the next couple of weeks! It’s all supply and demand, but pasta and tinned tomatoes are suddenly luxury goods in some ways

Dola: I’ve never paid attention to how long a roll lasts until now - turns out it’s nearly two weeks. Panic over, relax, which ironically enough means a toilet roll lasts slightly shorter than I’d thought :D

Double dola: If scalpers are a casualty of this, excuse me if don’t shed too many tears

Triple (!) dola: Unfortunately that seems to be the case here too - the promised easy access is not quite as simple as promised

If only it was this simple.


They are not saying he leaked it. They are saying by not sending it on a classified system, he created the circumstance that it could be leaked. They are also saying that he should have went to his boss and not his boss’s boss.

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

The strains are the same. The virus hasn't mutated much.

Italy got bad because it overwhelmed their health system. That's when the deaths start piling up. When you run out of beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. We have no idea if that will happen here. If New York keeps adding more patients and runs out of that stuff, the death toll soars.

I take a middle ground on that. I think it's the same strain, but I think Italy is more than it overwhelming their system, though that did have a major effect. There's cultural impacts too such as our population being more spread out, it being more prevalent for them to have elderly living with others, the fact that their population is just older on the whole, etc.

I don't think there's any question that some element of the shortages-induced deaths are coming here though. New York is close. Atlanta is close. New Orleans appears to be on the way, and Detroit probably not too far behind.

Yeah, it's kind of up in the air. I guess that's why models vary so much.

We have an elderly population too and not exactly the healthiest of countries. We also have (and will have a ton more) people without health insurance. Are those people going to get tested and eat a giant bill? Or stay and home and try to ride it out? Will those people have access to drugs that can help with the virus? Probably not.

We have our own set of issues and will see how they play out.

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

It does seem to mutate much slower, but they've already found 7+ strains in the past week or so. We probably won't know until later, but it is a possibility that the version in southern Europe is more deadly than the one we have here.

Italy's lifestyle and delay in responding also played a part. They are packed in together and often younger people live with older people. Add in they didn't start taking real steps until it had ravaged their country and you see why they are much different, IMO. New York is the closest because of mass transit and the number of people in a small area, so they will get hit the worst. But there are no indications it will be close to Italy's numbers.

Again, April will probably be the toughest month as the people that got it in March (before social distancing really took hold) and didn't seek immediate medical attention get worse. Hospitals will probably hit a high point in late April/early May - but there is no rational reason to expect the US to have anything comparable to Italy in two months. The geography, lifestyle and speed at which we started distancing plays a major factor here. Italy has 532 people per square mile, the US has 93. By dumb luck and geographical distance from each other, we would never be hit as hard at Italy.

To get a scope on how bad unemployment is.

The mammoth US unemployment claims in their historical context. pic.twitter.com/UNDwhBMpZt

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) April 2, 2020

It's crazy and we've never seen anything like it. I don't know what the answer is (outside of more socialistic policies - we need them for this summer), but there is no way we can keep this up for more than a few months.

And Dr Birx just said we are not flattening the curve still.

We are not flattening the curve and not a damn thing will be done about it. Too many people not taking this seriously. More will die and it will take longer to get back to normal. If they can't get people to stay 6 feet apart they won't get them to wear masks.

I don't think it's a tough call at all. This admin pardons war criminals while this Captain gets canned because he embarrassed his superiors in order to save his crew.

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

I agree. The red states are going to get overrun. The population down there likely didn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Some probably still don't take it seriously.

edited for lack of tact

All we can do is practice social distancing, stay home as much as possible, wears masks where possible and implore the government to do more to help small businesses and people out of work.

We will certainly know a lot more in a month - but stay home and try to avoid contact as much as possible until then.

Italy had under 50 deaths the day they put in place a much stricter lockdown than even New York, saying the us reacted faster seems a bit of a stretch ...
The 1000 deaths right now in the US were part of a much smaller 'pool' of infected people than the deaths that will occur in a week or 2 :( After that it will be reasonable to take stock (at least for some areas) but right now there is no indication the US is remotely at the peak of the curve. Even Italy got from 50 to 900 in fits and spurts with the ocasional decrease thrown in.

I am sure you will not see remotely similar per capita numbers (would be 5k) , but it will go up.

Same goes for Germany as well, it just is not possible right now to reliably prevent spread in hospitals and care facilities without rapid testing and antibody tests, neither of which is available in numbers yet.

Dad-gum!

I'll give you poorer and fatter but dumber? I like to see your reference, below is mine.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/w...e-opening.html

Nevertheless, we own football and proud patriots with 40-44% of the military.

Small sample size but of the patients that 'finished' their time on ventilators in Germany to date 34% died and 66% recovered ... That number will obviously shift for the better as most deaths while on one occur quickly and recovery takes a long time.

Two new studies at the 2 first 'hotspots' in Germany suggest that transmission via surfaces is really pretty much non-existent btw and more of a freak-accident than any real factor.

Aside from tracking the contacts and transmission networks* they also extensively tested all imaginable surfaces in houses with multiple currently infected people and even there could not detect reproducing/viable virus even on door handle or remote controlls. You'd really need someone to literally sneeze on a surface, touch it immediately after and then touch your face also pretty much immediately.

* In one case pretty much pinpointing it to a guy turning around in the Cafeteria and asking another to pass the salt. The majority of transmissions did occur during extended personal contact though, be it at work, private or public events. Most early cases in one Hotspot could be traced to a single carnival event.

I see, I'll take mine reported by the Washingon Post vs yours reported by WalletHub (?).

FFS dude, here are the bottom 12 of your source

Florida 98.4
South Carolina 98.4
Georgia 98
Tennessee 97.7
Arkansas 97.5
Arizona 97.4
Nevada 96.5
Alabama 95.7
New Mexico 95.7
Hawaii 95.6
California 95.5
Louisiana 95.3
Mississippi 94.2

8/12 in the south. Not really sure how you disproved anything

I don't know the context in which she said it, but it's obvious we are flattening the curve at least to some degree. There's no way that all the shutdown orders, all the unemployed people not working etc. is having no effect on the spread. You can't have that many people who would otherwhise be in close proximity to each other for several hours a day now almost completely separated and not flatten the curve.

How is CNBC? Good enough for you?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-...s-in-2018.html

"not flattening" is of course wrong, but it is definitely not flattened enough yet. And that naturally takes time. This is like turning an Oil tanker.


One more thing:

Lol Fox invited on the wrong one. Good. pic.twitter.com/L2eIW3dfRr

— Adam wants to flatten the curve (@aalali44) April 2, 2020

That test by Abbott was presented as if it was going to solve testing problems, it does not. There is no magic wand, whatever improvements come will have to come from a variety of fronts.

As an aside, i doubt they'll invite him again ;)

Uh no. The source is still WalletHub (?). WTF is WalletHub and why are they reputable?

Show me a study from a reputable source that actually says the South is dumber?


BTW - if you go by population, I think my link shows that CA as #47 on the IQ list has less-than-stellar-smart-people than the smaller southern states.

March 9th is when they expanded past Lombardy to cover Northern Italy. At that point, they had 463 deaths and over 9K recorded cases. On March 20, NY announced its shelter in place with 43 deaths and around 5,500 cases. On the day it began (3/22), they had 99 deaths. Heck, there were less than 450 recorded deaths in the entire US when most of the big cities started their shelter in place in the US (3/22). Factor in the reasons above about a more spread out country with less mass transit, fewer older and young living together, etc and there is reason to think the US won't be nearly as bad as Italy.

It's going to get worse in the US, but hospitals weren't being flooded in mass like in Spain/Italy when we started our measures. We also had the benefit of Italy as a warning (something Italy didn't have on their end).

Whatever dude. Not really worth the argument. If you want to think people in Miss, Alabama, KY, and Louisiana are geniuses so be it.

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-the-union/

Fine with me because I would then have delved into how IQ, SAT, ACT, schooling are not fair to poor and colored, and brought up how your statement was discriminatory, bigoted, and (almost) non-ADL racist.

I'd like to point out that the entire range of the IQ list from top to bottom is less than 10 points. That's just over half of a standard deviation. It still makes a difference, but we aren't talking about the difference between brilliance and idiocy here. It's a fairly small overall gap.

See above on non-ADL racist.

Okay, can we take this to another thread. Although non-political, I think we can all agree this discussion does not belong here.

Sorry for my participation.

How's LR doing? I remember McCain Mall and Slick Willy's family pool hall from a while ago.

1) I was referring to daily deaths, should have clarified. An yeah, it was a day later than i thought .
2) i believe Italys death numbers in the early phase a lot more than New York or the US in general (Italy did not test a ton, but consistently a while earlier). Due to only just having started seriously testing i expect there to have been a lot of "Pneumonia" deaths that were really Covid19, as some in here pointed out based on County data.

And again, i don't think it will get close to those numbers. But it is equally unlikely to stay close to the numbers right now. Would gladly be wrong.

I actually live in MS now just outside of Memphis. Haven’t updated my profile in awhile and still have my Xbox 360 gamer tag as my signature.

Things here are going ok. In Memphis, they are being proactive and opening up some temp hospitals. It’s about to get hot and humid which I hope slows down the spread. But I haven’t seen any hard evidence of that yet.

I truly apologize for being overly blunt. It completely did come off as arrogant.

As for my wife just trying to share info from a trusted and reliable source. I have also referenced several times a good friend who is a firefighter. I guess I just like to share peoples credentials prior to sharing their information.

Again, forgive me for my bluntness.

I've been to Memphis. Never went to Graceland (yuck) but liked downtown area (Rendezvous BBQ!), the duck hotel, and the Pyramid (Bass Pro Shop).

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

I honestly think we could hit 10,000 a day or more before too long.

If the facts are as it is being reported then yes he broke the chain of command. The problem for me is the details that are being reported read like someone getting a speeding ticket for driving 57 in 55 mph zone

I am skeptical.

This is disturbing.


On March 8 air travel was down 15% year over year.


On March 31 air travel was down 93% year over year.

Top headline in St. Louis news. Not that her death isn't tragic to her family or that she never touched a lot of lives but sorry it's just so fucking disingenuous of the news. They wouldnt have even covered her death had she died of cancer back in March. Exploitation at its worst.

Eureka High School guidance counselor dies from COVID-19 | ksdk.com
Coronavirus St. Louis County: Eureka HS guidance counselor dies | ksdk.com

Side note about toilet paper (not related to your post above, just using it as a jumping off point): https://marker.medium.com/what-every...e-c812e1358fe0

While it's kindof fun (albeit mean spirited) to do the whole "point and laugh at TP hoarders" thing that's pretty popular right now, it's not necessarily what's going on. Because people are at home, they're using a lot more consumer toilet paper and not commercial toilet paper so the supply chains are all out of whack.

SI

(warning: totally off topic)





Memphis is a sneaky good tourist city. We went to Graceland - but it's more a museum to us than a pilgrimage for the older folks who lived it. Tons of other interesting music stuff and I'm not a big music person: Sun, Stax, Beale Street, Rock and Soul Museum (tho it covers a lot of what you get at Sun and Stax), and Gibson Guitar factory tour to name a few things we did. The National Civil Rights Museum is great.The ducks were fun, the Pink Palace was good local goofy fun, and the Mud Island River Park was good (since the weather was good).



Legit BBQ scene, too, and that's coming from a native Texan who went to school near Kansas City. I love anywhere that can do good dry ribs and Central was really legit.


SI

Japan is probably hosed too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/busin...ntl/index.html

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

I know the stats say individual gun ownership is going down and the increased gun sales are because of people buying multiple weapons. I do wonder how many actual new gun owners will come out of this pandemic.

Don't need to buy anymore but still check guns and ammo sites here and there. There is no doubt there is a run on them.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/fb...rus/index.html

AL has not been on lock-down. Schools are closed but no stay-at-home or like order.

Bullshit. You either knew this list was not true and lied or you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about and listed a bunch of random states without spending 5 minutes to verify if you were right.

AL has not gone on lockdown.
MS goes on lockdown 4/3.
TN order took effect 4/2.
NC went on lockdown on 3/30
SC is still not on lockdown.
VA went on lockdown 3/30

I'll help you with the math. 2 weeks ago would be 3/19.

FWIW

I love Memphis, but it’s my home so I am probably biased.

Central is legit but we have better options.

Sorry to hear this. I know it's stressing you out. Travel & hospitality are probably the hardest hit right now.

What's the pilots' union telling you guys?

MSNBC has been running short bios on some of the people who died. One show had 3 of them at the last part of the hour.

I thought it was done well and it would help bring some closure for the families.

A little early to call, but furloughs starting in October. The company only needs 5000 guys for the April schedule. We have close to 13000. Im about 9500. I'd be on the street if that reality happens.

When you get furloughed, does that mean the airline will give you first dibs (in order of seniority) when they start to re-hire or no gaurantees?

They have to call everyone back and offer a class before they can hire 1 person off the street in that case. All seniority is maintained.

Worldometer says 969. Still a lot .

That is something at least. Best wishes to you.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...istancing.html

Hopefully no paywall, there isn't for me.

The South needs to get its shit together. Though I guess that's a constant theme of the last 300 years really, so why would this be any different. I'm very pleasantly surprised by my area in Trumptown, Indiana.

Times has excluded Corona News from their paywall i think and they have a very informative newsletter on it (think theres a link below most articles)

And yes, that article and its graphics are pretty good to illustrate some of the effects

The Bergamo 'province' within Lomdardy registered 5400 deaths in March, of which 2060 were diagnosed and listed as Covid. Normally only around 900 die in March. That still leaves a gap of over 2400 after official Covid19 deaths are accounted for.

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/...se_1347415_11/

If anybody is interested, the german Institute tasked with coordinating testing etc seems to have started to publish their daily report in english as well:

Menupage: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Aktueller Situationsbericht des Robert Koch-Instituts zu COVID-19

Todays report: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

They basically have a standard of stuff that is always published but also choose different peripheral data each day to add, which is often extremely interesting.

F.e. today they show how the measurements also pretty much stopped the Influenza wave dead in it's track as a sideeffect and that a little less than 9 % of targeted tests for Covid 19 come back positive and almost no tests from the "sentinel network" (essentially a longstanding rotating spread of doctors offices that take swaps from patients with respiratory symptoms, even light ones, that get tested for every known virus causing them) show positive for SarsCov2.

A similar study as to mobility in March for Germany but concentrating more on frequented places (Retail, Parks, Public transit etc) rather than travelled distance:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf


Fascinating that even grocery stores were 50% less frequented. Parks only 50% as well, but less surprising since they use January/February as a baseline where naturally already very few people frequented parks (especially since the weather here sucked)

Guilford County, NC is #4 on the list that Radii posted, and it's where I live. Schools and non-essential businesses here have been closed for 2+ weeks, and based on everything I've seen and heard since then, things have been very good here. I have an alternate explanation, though, for 3 miles being the average here: the weather. It has been GORGEOUS (highs upper 60s/low 70s with low humidity,) and the walking/running/biking trails are full, but--at least when I've been there--properly socially distanced. I know I've driven farther than that (more like 7 miles one-way) probably 2/3 of the days since school closed on 3/14, simply to ride bikes with my daughter in one of the parks. I'm fairly certain I haven't come within even 12 feet of anyone other than her on any of those rides. (The roads within the park are two cars wide, but cars aren't allowed in the park now, so walkers and riders can have room.) The number of walkers/riders wearing masks of some sort has increased *dramatically* this week as well, fwiw, from maybe 2% last week, to more than 30% today.


It's also worth nothing that there have been ZERO kids playing on the playgrounds at the park we are frequenting. (All public playgrounds are officially closed, but there's no physical barrier preventing parents from taking their kids there.)



We've also driven over 50 miles to go hiking three times to a popular hiking spot for Guilford County folks before it had to close because it got too popular. (There are a BUNCH of trails there, but they are much more narrow--maybe just 3 feet wide.) We went early in the morning on what would turn out to be the last day it was open. It was like 55 degrees at 7:30am when we arrived, and was in the upper 60s when we left at around 10:30. It was quite empty when we were there, but as we were leaving, there was a LONG line of cars waiting to get in. We're the closest metro area to there, so it's pretty certain that a bunch of those cars were coming from Guilford.


I can't speak for other places, but everything I've seen indicates that Guilford County is taking it quite seriously, but that we are also very much enjoying the outdoors.


Gotta run. We're about to drive 2 1/2 hours for a hike and picnic on the Blue Ridge Parkway for my older daughter's birthday. ;) (Seriously, with every other plan being cancelled, that's what she asked to do. She did the research herself to find something open and--hopefully--not heavily used. It wasn't easy. What she doesn't know is that we're having a social distance parade for her and her sister tomorrow on their actual birthday. OH NOEZ!!! MOR CARS DRIVING AROUND GUILFORD COUNTY!!!1")

The (simple) model I've been using would have had us around 4M today. However, it also assumed no social distancing or other mitigations. Clearly, we've made some societal changes so we're to the point where I'm not comfortable with how accurate my numbers are anymore.

Fortunately, someone is doing that job for me:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-36b886af37e9

Number of cases by state (graph)
https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/0*19GxUL6emgR1EqUx



I think his economic conclusions are flawed, but that's because he's treating this like recent pandemics, which were not nearly this large in scale, and didn't build in that we were due for a recession and the assorted bubbles that get generated from 10 years of expansion.


SI

Subdivision FB page was complaining about how neighborhood kids were congregating playing basketball. My daughter is staying inside and taking it seriously, I wish other kids would too.

I assume there are teenager issues everywhere. I mean, the ones here are posting pics of themselves driving up to parking lots and properly socially distancing, sitting on the hoods of their cars, but who knows what’s happening off camera? There’s zero chance that dating couples in high school/college aren’t hooking up everywhere.

Our neighborhood gaggle of 7-12 year old kids are all still hanging out together

SI

This has been a concern of my wife and I. My son does click list at Kroger and has picked up hours during this. He has been moodier than normal so I figure that he hasn't been, but the thought has crossed our minds.

My first grader had a zoom girl scout meeting yesterday and her troop leader went through each kid and asked them what they are doing with their days. One of the girls said playing with all the kids in the neighborhood and you could immediately feel the blackballing and judging beginning.

The below is a long article. The gist is there seems to be legit concerns about the modelling/models used. However you have to start somewhere.

If it comes a lot lower or higher, I won't blame them. However they should be updating and presenting their best guess periodically (which I'm sure they'll do in the daily briefings) and the models will be continually refined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...aths-estimate/

UK with 684 new deaths in hospitals only ... 4-7 days ago they were still hovering around 200 :(

It is ramping up significantly :(

Ministers are talking about maybe reaching the peak in "a few weeks" - it does look like we might be getting towards higher daily numbers than anywhere else if that is the case

What's the take on the failed (I assume) herd mentality approach? As in it was stupid to begin with or Boris tried to do the right thing etc.

Trying an approach based on a fringe theory not at all taking into account stuff like hospital capacity ?
Herd Immunity is not the issue, it is what every country ultimately must achieve (naturally and via vaccination) but it is utterly insane to say "well, better get those 60-70% infected out of the way fast".

That extra week of delay will cost the UKs elderly population tremendously and will require the restrictions to stay in place a lot longer and more strictly than it might have beem achieved otherwise. Because you need to be at a low level first before you can think about opening up and using intense testing and individual quarantine instead.